UFC Fight Night 144: Assuncao vs Moraes 2- Recap & Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Night 144: Assuncao vs Moraes 2- Recap & Bet Pack Review

Quick Recap: Overall, it wasn’t a good night but it wasn’t as bad as my record would indicate. I went 5-8, dropping a trio of split decisions including 2 that were pretty poorly judged. I hit on Moraes, Perez and Rozenstruick. I also picked up the Maia by Submission prop bet. I scored a couple of winning plays that can be seen below in the Bet Pack Review.

Marlon Moraes was impressive and certainly deserves the next title shot. He has now finished Assuncao, Sterling, and Rivera. That is a #1 contender’s resume if I have ever seen one. I loved the non-call out of TJ and it plays to what I have been saying- is TJ a respectable champion after going down to 125 and getting destroyed? I think Moraes will prove that one way or another.

I feel for Raphael Assuncao. He put together an impressive run but was never able to secure a shot at the title and probably never will now. He joins fighters like Jim Miller and potentially Jacare Souza who were near the top, but just never got the call before time caught up with them.

Jose Aldo showed he still has what it takes. I had him as a Counter Bet and regret not pulling the trigger on him outright. I still feel Holloway is a disaster matchup for him so title contention is out of the equation. A rematch with McGregor, especially in Brazil would be money.

That was a nice win for Demian Maia, at this point in his career his success will come down to stylistic matchups. Against heavy wrestlers, he is going to struggle, but against strikers or dedicated grapplers that can’t stay vertical, he can still find a lot of success.

I was close to taking Thiago Alves and even though he won, I feel my Max Griffin pick was the right call. Griffin nearly finished him in Round 1 and held the superior position for the majority of Round 3 which should have got him a 29-28 call across the board. I was a little shocked not to see any 10-8, but that shock was quickly passed over when the final decision was read out. Home cooking at its finest.

UFC Fight Night 144 was the first of nine consecutive weekends with UFC events. Buckle up we, got a long way to go!

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

 

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1 
+ Marlon Moraes  To WIN -145
ODDS: -145
BET: 10u
RETURN: 16.9u

 

BET #2
+ David Teymur  To WIN +110
+ Renato Moicano  To WIN -135
ODDS: +266
BET: 6u
RETURN: 21.93u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Justin Ledet  To WIN +180
ODDS: +180
BET: 5u
RETURN: 14u

 

BET #2
+ Max Griffin To WIN  -192
+ Ricardo Ramos  To WIN -135
ODDS: +165
BET: 4u
RETURN: 10.59u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Markus Perez  To WIN +145
ODDS: +145
BET: 3u
RETURN: 7.35u

 

BET #2
+ Demian Maia  To WIN -175
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik  To WIN +105
ODDS: +222
BET: 3u
RETURN: 9.66u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Marlon Moraes  to WIN by TKO/KO/DQ +265
ODDS: +265
BET: 3u
RETURN: 10.95u

 

BET #2
+ Demian Maia  to WIN by Submission +165
+ Livia Renato Souza  to Win by Submission +180
ODDS: +642
BET: 2u
RETURN: 14.84u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ David Teymur   To WIN +110
+ Renato Moicano  To WIN -135
+ Marlon Moraes To WIN -145
ODDS: +518
BET: 8u
RETURN: 49.41u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Justin Ledet To WIN +180
+ Max Griffin To WIN -192
+ Ricardo Ramos To WIN -135
ODDS: +641
BET: 6u
RETURN: 44.48u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Markus Perez To WIN +145
+ Demian Maia To WIN -175
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik  To WIN +105
ODDS: +689
BET: 5u
RETURN: 39.46

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Demian Maia To WIN by Submission +165
+ Livia Renato Souza  To WIN by Submission +180
+ Albini/ Rozenstruik  Total Rounds Under 1.5 -107
ODDS: +1335
BET: 4u
RETURN: 57.42u

BET #2
+ Ricardo Ramos To Win Inside the Distance +245
+ Marlon Moraes To Win by TKO/KO/DQ +265
+ David Teymur  To WIN +110
ODDS: +2544
BET: 4u
RETURN: 105.78u

BET #3
+ Markus Perez To Win by Decision +455
+ Justin Ledet To WIN +180
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik  To WIN +105
ODDS: +3086
BET: 4u
RETURN: 127.43u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Marlon Moraes $8800
+ David Teymur $7700
+ Justin Ledet $7000
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik $8100
+ Ricardo Ramos $8000
+ Demian Maia $8700

Spares

+ Renato Moicano $8300
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Marlon Moraes -145 vs Raphael Assuncao +145 

This should be a very good fight and we are getting some solid value on Moraes here. He narrowly lost the first bout and it really came down to a couple of key factors. Those factors most likely won’t be involved this time around. Moraes was doing well early but got rocked near the end of R1 which most likely cost him the frame. In R2, he came out flat. This can be largely attributed to the debut adrenaline dump. He got it going again in R3 and most likely won the round. He is a better fighter and far more comfortable in the rematch. Assuncao is solid, but he wants to counter too much. Moraes is too dangerous to let him continually lead the dance. Moraes opened around the -215 mark and has steadily improved with people betting Assuncao. Cash in. Gold Play on Moraes.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Moraes in my lineups as well. I feel a lot of people are overlooking his ability to finish this fight. He will have 5-rounds to do so and should find success, potentially landing a head kick to end it. Add him.

Jose Aldo +125 vs Renato Moicano -135

I gave Aldo a long look, but in the end, I went with Moicano. I see a lot of parallels to what just happen to Mendes. Both he and Aldo suffered a couple of big setbacks, before finally picking up a big win. In both case, the win was a quick finish- not a lot of time to see how either man would fair over a longer fight. Mendes then got stopped by a hungry contender looking for his shot. A fighter that could be considered a younger version of the TAM member. The same can be said here with Aldo/Moicano. Moicano fights smart and will most likely push Aldo, overwork him, and either take a wide decision or stop him. I didn’t like how much Stephens was battering Aldo early. That use to be the key to Jose success. Moicano uses his reach and distance coupled with a decent pace. Not as well, but similar to Max. Renato doesn’t have the value he did when he opened (-125), but you can grab him as a Gold play somewhere between -135 and -150.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Moicano is a solid spare to mix in when possible. He has the potential to land between 80 and 110 significant strikes and a finish is a legit possibility as well.

Demian Maia -175 vs Lyman Good +169 

Good is dangerous, but Maia is getting a much better stylistic matchup than we have seen in recent outings. Covington, Usman, and Woodley are all physically imposing wrestlers with the ability to stay vertical and negate Maia’s key weapon. Good is a striker that is vulnerable to be taken down when pressed. Maia is fighting at home which is big and having lost 3 fights in a row, the UFC is most likely looking to give him a favourable matchup. Maia opened around -155 and has drifted a bit, but he is still worth a decent look. He will be my top level Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Maia gets the call in my Fantasy lineup. His wins are built around submissions and/or takedowns. Both scenarios produce points. Add him.

Charles Oliveira -116 vs David Teymur +110

Oliveira has looked solid in recent fights, but that success has come against opponents that need to incorporate their wrestling to win. Even if they didn’t try to take Oliveira down, it still took away a key weapon. That isn’t the case with Teymur. The Swede is lethal on the feet and will fight at distance, forcing Charles to work hard to close the gap and punishing him when he does. CO only needs one opportunity to get the tap, but Teymur will make it difficult to get that shot. Solid Value on Teymur here- Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Teymur hits very hard and Oliveira is known to fold when faced with taking too much damage. Look for the kickboxer to unload, especially with hard body kicks from the southpaw stance. Add him.

Johnny Walker -187 vs Justin Ledet +180

We are getting in on Ledet in a fantastic spot here. He got smashed by Rakic in his UFC LHW debut- his worst UFC performance. Walker smashed Rountree in his debut. Short fight, limit amount of action, and Walker looked awesome from start to finish. Those scenarios are skewing the odds in favour of Ledet supporters.  Could Walker do that again? Yes, but Ledet is quicker, more technical, and has better cardio. If he can survive the early onslaught this is his fight- especially if/when Walker starts to slow down. Ledet should also feel better fighting at LHW and will have less distraction than before (lost his luggage and prepped meals before last fight). I love Ledet here. He is my key Silver bet.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Ledet gets the call in my DK lineup. He is extremely cheap and should be able to find a finish when Walker gasses. If he doesn’t get the stoppage, his volume, especially with his jab, should be decent. The low price gives us the freedom to add almost anyone else we want.

Livia Renato Souza -200 vs Sarah Frota +187 

I like Souza here, but the price doesn’t seem like it is worth the risk. She opened around -185 and now sits anywhere between -200 and -235. This initially felt like a pass and after I gave it some deliberation regarding whether I could pair her up with another fighter to increase the value, I have opted to stick with the No Play Scenario.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass here as well. While Souza could very well snatch up a sub, the price is very high.

Anthony Hernandez -145 vs Markus Perez +145 

Hernandez looked like an interesting fighter, but he has some very fadable scenarios working against him. He is debuting and doing so in Brazil. Additionally, he has just a single fight outside of the opening round. Yes, it was a 5 rounder, but his opponent faded which certainly helped him out. Perez is an odd fighter with a variety of skills, but no real one dominant skill set. If he survives the early onslaught, he should find success as the more active fighter- especially with his kicks. Bronze play on the Brazilian dog.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass here with this spot on the card traditionally going the distance.

Mara Romero Borella +155 vs Talia Santos -160 

I am on Santos here, but I honestly feel there are better betting options out there. I think this is a pass for me.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Same here. Santos could get a stop, but this fight could easily go the distance as well. Pass.

Thiago Alves +177 vs Max Griffin -192

Alves just doesn’t appear to have it anymore. I needed to see a little more out of him to pick him here, even at home. Griffin will most likely utilize his length here, like he did against Perry, to limit the output of Alves. If Thiago does start to commit on his strikes, there is the issue of his chin. He simply is not nearly as durable as he once was. Griffin was a much heavier favourite, sitting around -230, but he is giving us a little more bang for our buck. Silver play for Max.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Griffin might get a stoppage here or he could go off for 100 sig strikes, but he is also capable of winning this fight with strong defense. That doesn’t score points. Pass.

Junior Albini -115 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik +105 

Albini has been extremely unimpressive, beyond a quick knockout. He is now facing an extremely experienced and capable kickboxer on very short notice. Rozenstruik gets a short camp to get ready, but he needs to win this fight inside the first 5-7 minutes or he is probably is in tough- so I am not concerned with the potential for a cardio letdown. Albini could take this fight to the floor like he did on the regional scene, but I see him want to make a name for himself and win this on the feet. Rozenstruik opened around -140 and has been bet down to the dog position. I love him as a Bronze bet, the late debut and minimal MMA experience put a cap on how much I invest.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do have Rozenstruik in my DK lineup. The guy his like a tank and Albini will be there to be hit all night long or less depending on when the new guy put his hands on him.

Felipe Colares +110 vs Geraldo De Freitas -118 

This is a flat out no play for me. Too many outside factors to worry about that could affect the outcome of this fight. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

See above.

Ricardo Ramos -135 vs Said Nurmagomedov +130

I had Kang in the last fight and felt he was close to edging out Ramos. I like Ramos here despite the fact that he opened as a +145 underdog and steadily climbed until he completely flipped roles with Said. Nurmagomedov is not the fighter that Khabib is. They share a name and that is it. He is talented, but as a striker and he is a little undersized here. I thought Scoggins had success on the feet against Said and Ricardo will as well. Unless Said can finish him or blow the doors completely off him in a decision, this is RR’s fight to win. Ramos is a strong Silver play for me.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Ricard does have a great finishing record and can do so via striking or grappling. At $8000, he is a solid play for your fantasy lineup. Add him.

Magomed Bibulatov -320 vs Rogerio Bontorin +315 

Bibs is looking to get back in the win column after a long layoff and shocking knockout. I don’t like him at this price against an opponent we don’t know a lot about. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing doing here. Pass.

 

Confidence List

1. Marlon Moraes -145 

2. Livia Renato Souza -200 

3. David Teymur +110 

4. Magomed Bibulatov -320 

5. Renato Moicano -135 

====================

6. Ricardo Ramos -135 

7. Justin Ledet +180 

8. Max Griffin -192 

9. Jairzinho Rozenstruik +105 

10. Demian Maia -175 

11. Markus Perez +145 

12. Talia Santos -160 

13. Felipe Colares +110 

 

Value Bet List

1. David Teymur +110 

2. Justin Ledet +180 

3. Marlon Moraes -145 

4. Jairzinho Rozenstruik +105 

5. Markus Perez +145 

 

Counter Bets

1. Jose Aldo +125-  It is hard to overlook a talent like Aldo at plus money. I had him against Stephens and considered him here. If you are getting close to cashing on a Parlay and it comes down to this fight, certainly consider hedging your bet with Aldo.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

EPU Candidate(s)

1. Ricardo Ramos to Win Inside the Distance +245

Ramos is aggressive and a capable finisher wherever this fight goes. I still feel his opponent’s name is impacting the odds. I wasn’t impressed with Nurmagomedov at FLW and against a bigger and more aggressive opponent, he could get himself in trouble. I will take the plus money on this one.

2. Magomed Bibulatov to Win Inside the Distance +240

Bibs is coming back off a long layoff and has a lot of decision wins against next level opposition. That being said, Bontorin is taking a decent step up in competition and the last UFC-level opponent he faced, finished him. He was also badly rocked in his last fight which raises questions about his ability to take damage. I think Bibs can finish him and at this return, it is worth.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
13
19
26
7 of 23 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
2191243%

FPO Candidate

1. Markus Perez to Win by Decision +455

I will take a big shot here. Hernandez has finished all opponents in round 1, minus 1. If he can’t get Perez out of there, the debut factor, hostile environment, and humidity of the area could slow him down over the next 2 rounds. That should give Perez ample opportunity to outpoint him at home and get the nod.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
2216673%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
1751229%

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Marlon Moraes -145 vs Raphael Assuncao +145

2. Jose Aldo +125 vs Renato Moicano -135

3. Charles Oliveira -116 vs David Teymur +110

4. Anthony Hernandez -145 vs Markus Perez +145

5. Mara Romero Borella +155 vs Talia Santos -160

6. Junior Albini -115 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik +105

7. Felipe Colares +110 vs Geraldo De Freitas -118

8. Ricardo Ramos -135 vs Said Nurmagomedov +130

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
119576248%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
178958353%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
119596050%

 

Prop Bets

Marlon Moraes to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +265 

Moraes is dangerous. He needed a chance to settle in and putting him up against Assuncao in his first fight was a tall order. He has since found his footing. Assuncao likes to counter strike and if routinely lets MM get off first, he is going to eat some big shots. Watch for Marlon to come over the top with a high kick. It is also worth noting that Moraes has 5 round experience, Assuncao does not. That could show up.

Demian Maia to Win by Submission +165 

I have had success here before, grabbing good ground fighters that haven’t scored a recent sub and betting them to end the streak. Demian Maia at plus money to win by sub? You’d best take a shot. Good had issues creating separation when Dos Santos tried to grapple him. Maia will close, clinch, and either rotate to his back or drag him down and then rotate to his back. Watch for that RNC.

Livia Renato Souza to Win by Submission +180 

If you are going to play Souza this is your best option. Yes, Frota is a Black belt, but she has a poor gas tank. That less than average cardio results in her pulling guard a lot which is a miserable mistake against Souza. Souza might be able to grind her out and get that tap before we even see that scenario. This is a solid return considering LRS’s track record.

Anthony Hernandez/Markus Perez 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Junior Albini/Jairzinho Rozenstruik Total Rounds Under 1.5 -107 

Rozenstruik has been smashing people, but he is getting a step up in MMA competition. That being said, he has a sizeable advantage in Combat experience. Playing the Under keeps his power in play along with the potential for Junior to take him down and look for a finish. I was expecting something closer to -175, so anything close to the current like is a nice surprise.

Ricardo Ramos/Said Nurmagomedov 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Magomed Bibulatov/Rogerio Bontorin 

See the Betting Scenario Section.