UFN 142 & TUF 28 Finale- Bet Pack Review

UFN 142 Quick Recap
Record: 9-3
Big Bankroll Bundle: 36.31u won
Big Reward Bundle: 40.12u won

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

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DraftKings MMA Lineup
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Fighter 1: Junior Dos Santos $8300 
Fighter 2: Mark Hunt $8000 
Fighter 3: Tony Martin $7800 
Fighter 4: Jimmy Crute $8700 
Fighter 5: Ben Nguyen $8500 
Fighter 6: Alex Gorgees $6700  
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: 
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Junior Dos Santos -165 vs Tai Tuivasa +141 

There aren’t a lot of bettable fights here so we need to make the ones that are count. I love JDS here. He is the more technical fighter and it normally takes a lot to get him out of there. He should put together a similar performance to his Rothwell and Ivanov fights. He will use his jab, kicks, and circular movement to difuse Tai and drag him into the deep water. Gold Play.

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JDS gets the call for my Fantasy lineup. Back in the day, JDS was a stopping machine and while he could return to that- I like his potential 5 round volume against a very hittable and durable opponent add him.

Tyson Pedro -455 vs Mauricio Rua +346 

This is a No Play. I will look at a prop bet, but I won’t touch this fight straight up.

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Pedro is way too expensive. I am already spending stretching the purse strings to the max. Pass.

Mark Hunt +105 vs Justin Willis -124 

Hunt opened around -155 and has steadily been bet to the dog. Willis doesn’t have the wrestling that other fighters have used to beat Mark. Hunt has power and if he isn’t as concerned with the shot, he should be able to deploy it. Willis tends to fight at a measured pace that should play directly into Hunt’s hands. Take the value and run, he might even close in on +110 by fight time. Silver Play.

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Hunt is a solid Fantasy pickup. He is a finisher and affordable at $8000. This is not my favourite fantasy lineup, but I will do what I can with what we have to work with.  Add him.

Tony Martin -104 vs Jake Matthews -106 

This is a near pick’em and it should be. Similar skill sets, similar paths to this meeting. Martin opened as a slight fav and my initial instinct told me he was the fighter to look at here. He is physical enough to match Matthews and more technical on the mat. His hands have improved and I just don’t see Matthews bullying him unless he tires.  Matthews has had issues on the mat against good grapplers. Martin is a Gold Play for me.

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Martin can finish on the mat and he showcased his improved striking last time out. At $7800, you have to play him.

Suman Mokhtarian +435 vs Sodiq Yusuff -500 

Nope. Debuting fighters. Home underdog. Yusuff probably wins, but we need to find better value elsewhere. Pass.

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Same here.

Paul Craig +218 vs Jim Crute -244 

Crute looked like an interesting prospect on the Contenders Series. The line has stayed relatively in the same area which isn’t surprising. Craig could easily, very easily, be on 3 fight losing streak. Unless Crute makes a mistake, this is his fight. I don’t mind taking a shot on him because we have a pretty good read on Craig at this point. Silver Play.

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Craig is a kill or be killed fighter and Crute fights to kill. I expect to see him put it on Craig and eventually he will fold. Add him.

Alexey Kunchenko -321 vs Yushin Okami +202 

I gave Okami a long look here. If he can get a couple of early takedowns he can definitely turn this fight in his favour. It is better left alone until we see a little more out of Kunchenko. Pass.

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Alexey is a little too expensive for my liking. He could get a finish, but he would put me in a financial hole. Pass.

Ben Nguyen -145 vs Wilson Reis +128 

I went back and forth on this one. Reis is too good a fighter to lose 4 in a row, but he could be at the end of his run here. Nguyen hits hard for the division and should have a speed advantage. Reis has really looked subpar in recent fights. He opened as the fav, but the line moved quickly. Ben is a Silver play for me.

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Ben can crack and Reis has been hurt and finished on multiple occasions. Again, my hands are a little tied on this card- but BN is a good Fantasy play.

Keita Nakamura -169 vs Salim Touahri +142 

This is the last (or in actual fight order, the first) playable fight of the night. Nakamura is a pretty unassuming fighter and I was hoping that would bring in some money on Touahri, but it really hasn’t. K-Taro is the more functional striker and has the grappling game to add to it. Touahri needs a stoppage here or he is going to get outworked. Gold play for Nak.

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Nakamura could get a finish here, most likely by submission, but I just don’t see him being a better option then the other fighters I played in his price bracket. Pass.

Kai Kara France -333 vs Elias Garcia +294 

This applies to this fight and the opening fight on the card. We just don’t have enough info on any of these fighters and the return just isn’t worth the risk. Pass

Draft-Kings-Logo

Too pricey for KK-F and I just don’t see Garcia pulling it out.

Christos Giagos -351 vs Mizuto Hirota +288 

I will pass here too. This is the type of fight where both guys have struggled to find success at this level. Giagos is in a better spot, but I just don’t see the need to risk anything.

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Nothing doing here.

Alex Gorgees +415 vs Damir Ismagulov -571 

See Above.

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I had to use someone I didn’t pick to win. Gorgees has that type of swagger that I like in a fighter. Too much for a guy in his current spot, but what the hell. Let’s roll with it.

 

1. Junior Dos Santos -165 

2. Tyson Pedro -455 

3. Keita Nakamura -169 

4. Tony Martin -104 

5. Jim Crute -244 

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6. Sodiq Yusuff -500 

7. Alexey Kunchenko -321 

8. Ben Nguyen -145 

9. Mark Hunt +105 

10. Kai Kara France -333 

11. Damir Ismagulov -571 

12. Christos Giagos -351 

1. Junior Dos Santos -165 

2. Mark Hunt +105 

3. Tony Martin -104 

4. Ben Nguyen -145 

5. Keita Nakamura -169 

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Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

 

Junior Dos Santos to Win by Decision +348 

JDS has quietly reinvented himself and against most HWs it is very effective. He picks away at them, lands big shots, but stays mobile and out of range. Tai is durable and will take a lot to get out of there. Over 5 rounds this is a stressful bet, but I like the return here.

Tyson Pedro/Mauricio Rua Total Rounds Under 1.5 -142 

Pedro has only gone outside of the opening round once. Shogun is very hittable and can be finished by an aggressive opponent. He also might have just enough in the tank to catch Pedro. Play the under to keep both fighter’s finishing skills in play.

Sodiq Yusuff to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -175 

Mokhtarian has fought some pretty weak opposition and if he can’t get Yusuff down he is going to be in trouble on the feet. Sodiq hits hard and is pretty quick. He will eventually land something that gets him the finish.

Jim Crute to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +105 

Craig leaves himself open on the feet and Crute is a very aggressive fighter. It might take him a little longer than 1.5 rounds to get it done, but I like giving him the entire fight to get the stoppage.

Alexey Kunchenko/Yushin Okami

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Christos Giagos/Mizuto Hirota 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Alex Gorgees/Damir Ismagulov 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

TUF 28 Finale Quick Recap
Record: 9-4
Big Bankroll Bundle: 18.15u won
Big Reward Bundle: 25.64u won

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

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DraftKings MMA Lineup
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Fighter 1: Rafael Dos Anjos $7200 
Fighter 2: Macy Chiasson $7600 
Fighter 3: Darren Stewart $7900 
Fighter 4: Alex Perez $8200 
Fighter 5: Raoni Barcelos $9500 
Fighter 6: Maurice Greene $8700 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Juan Espino $8500 
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Betting Odds Courtesy of Melbet.org

Kamaru Usman -278 vs Rafael Dos Anjos +228 

With 2 events this weekend expect to see straight to the point breakdowns.

This line is a direct result of the RDA/Covington fight. Covington and Usman are not the same fighters and that will show up here. The public is betting heavy on Usman and as a result, we are getting some solid value on the former champ. Most sites opened him around +165 and he has been bet up to +215 and has high as +230 on some sites. RDA is the far better striker and will push Usman. The manner in which Usman’s corner handles him between rounds, you know they have concerns that he could tire out. He has never been pushed like RDA will push him. Gold play.

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This could be the largest amount of cash I have ever left after setting a lineup.  The biggest reason for that is RDA. He is very affordable and will have 5 rounds to put up a lot of offence against Usman. I’m not counting on a finish, but more likely 100+ significant strikes. Add him.

Justin Frazier +121 vs Juan Espino -144 

I don’t think these are the 2 the UFC had in mind for the HW finals, but I like the way they match up. Frazier needs to get Juan early or he is going to be in trouble. His cardio isn’t great and neither is his technique- striking or takedowns. Espino did open as the Dog in the +120 to +130 range, and has steadily been bet down. This the primary reason he is a Silver play. Look for him to scoop a single and put Frazier on his back early. Silver Play.

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I’ve got Juan in my sub list. He will add some diversity and is almost certainly winning this fight by stoppage, inside the first half of the fight. Mix him in frequently.

Pannie Kianzad -137 vs Macy Chiasson +113  

I initially was looking at Kianzad here, but I can’t get past how heavy Chiasson hits. She is a legit FW, while Pannie is a BW that has had issues making the weight. The line just opened, but we have still seen a lot of movement. PZ opened around -215 and has steadily increased in value. A lot of that has to do with Chiasson’s lack of pro experience, especially when compared to Kianzad’s quality of fights. Look for Chiasson to make sizeable leaps in ability between now and the show with her size playing a factor in this fight. Bronze Play.

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Chiasson is affordable and hits hard. She showcased her finishing skills on the show and that power should hold up well against a Bantamweight sized fighter.

Pedro Munhoz -238 vs Bryan Caraway +208 

It is crazy to see how this line swung. Munhoz opened around +195 and the best you can grab him at now is -207. Caraway is constantly undervalued, but I don’t think that is the case here. Caraway has to dive headlong into the teeth of the submission game of Munhoz and win a control based decision. He needs to tire him out, but I just don’t see him doing it from a strategic or capability standpoint. Munhoz’s pressure should carry the action on the feet. I would never see Pedro as a dog in this fight so if you got in on it, that is huge. Nonetheless, I like him in my Gold Play.

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As much as I would like to back Munhoz because of his submission skills I will pass here looking towards a potential decision.

Darren Stewart +132 vs Edmen Shahbazyan -152 

This fight is drawing closer to a pick’em on most site, but on Melbet you can still grab Stewart as the dog. Shahbazyan is relatively untested. He is debuting, has faced low-level opposition, and has never fought beyond the opening round. That is a lot to overcome, especially against a fairly durable and hard-hitting fighter like Stewart. Stewart is pretty flawed himself, but he is looking much better of late. I really like Stewart here as a top Silver play.

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I love Stewart here. Another sub $8000 fighter with big power and a history of scoring finishes. Look for him to take this fight over late in round 1 or early in round 2. Add him.

Ji Yeon Kim +280 vs Antonina Shevchenko -317 

Shevchenko is moving down quickly, but not quick enough. If we could pick her up around -270 I might take a shot, but she is still relatively unproven in MMA. If Kim deviates from her normal path and goes back to a ground-oriented attack she could flip this fight on its head. I will look at the prop, but this is a pass for me.

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Kim is durable and Antonina is expensive. Pass.

Rick Glenn +107 vs Kevin Aguilar -118 

Glenn opened at the +125 mark, but he is trending down and many sites have him as a dog. I see lots of sharp bets on Aguilar here and just don’t buy it. He is a solid fighter, but he has just 2 weeks to prep for a pretty durable and gritty opponent in Glenn. If I had seen more wrestling out of Aguilar I could consider making a play there, but he has fought some very close fights against lesser competition. I like Glenn to gut this one out. Silver Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass here too.

Joseph Benavidez +110 vs Alex Perez -127 

I had Benavidez over Borg, but Perez is a different animal. Benavidez has volume striking in his favour against most, but unless Perez can’t get the finish and burns out quick- this is his fight. Benavidez isn’t nearly as durable as he used to be either and he won’t be able to fall back on his wrestling here if he gets the worst of the striking. Perez opened as the dog and if you got in on the plus money, that is huge. Nonetheless, he is still a solid play here. Gold bet.

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Perez was very impressive in his last fight and showcased his big power, speed, and overall aggression. Benavidez isn’t nearly as durable as he use to be. Add him.

Maurice Greene -149 vs Michel Batista +122 

I was really unimpressed with Batista on the show and didn’t see that much more in his recent pro bouts. He can wrestle, but honestly, he lacks the striking skills to set it up. The big question is, how will the kickboxer fair against the wrestler. Greene opened around -185 but has steadily improved which is good for us. He is big and that will help him shut down the half-hearted TDAs from Batista. More importantly, look for Michel to really shut down once the fists start to fly. Bronze bet.

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Batista didn’t look good under pressure on the show and the kickboxing skills combined with the length of Greene will create similar, if not worse issues. Look for Greene to get the finish. Add him.

Leah Letson -227  vs Julija Stoliarenko +183 

Letson is pretty scrappy which will weigh effectively against Stoliarenko’s lack of long fight experience. The line hasn’t moved much since it opened, but it could still improve for us as fight night draws closer. Letson, like the other late additions, is a solid add to the Bronze section.

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Letson is very capable of getting the finish, but she is a little price for my liking.

Roosevelt Roberts -303 vs Darrell Horcher +275  

I will pass here. I give Roberts the edge, but a debuting fighter as a heavy favourite is not worth the risk. I will look at a prop bet.

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Roberts is unproven when considering his lofty price tag. Pass.

Tim Means -364 vs Ricky Rainey +290 

Means could easily be on a winning streak here instead of a 2-fight skid. He seems to fight down to his opposition or just lacks the urgency needed to turn the fight in his favour. As a result, I won’t risk anything here. Pass.

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Means is capable of getting a finish, but doesn’t always fight up to his capabilities. I will invest elsewhere.

Raoni Barcelos -465 vs Chris Gutierrez +356 

This line blew up with Barcelos opening somewhere around the -270 range. Regardless, this is a no play here. I will look at an EPU play here. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Barcelos can crack and he has the submission skills to replicate the grappling issues that Gutierrez has had in the past. Add him.

1. Pedro Munhoz -238 

2. Alex Perez -127 

3. Antonina Shevchenko -317 

4. Rafael Dos Anjos +228 

5. Tim Means -364 

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6. Raoni Barcelos -465 

7. Darren Stewart +132 

8. Leah Letson -227 

9. Juan Espino -144 

10. Maurice Greene -149 

11. Roosevelt Roberts -303 

12. Rick Glenn +107 

13. Macy Chiasson +113 

1. Rafael Dos Anjos +228 

2. Darren Stewart +132 

3. Macy Chiasson +113 

4. Rick Glenn +107 

5. Alex Perez -127 

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Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Juan Espino Wins Inside the Distance +105  

I gave some thought to Espino by submission and it makes sense, but I want to keep all finishing methods in play here. If Espino gets Frazier’s back he is most likely going to lock in an RNC, but he could also opt to stretch out a tired opponent and land strikes until the ref stops it. Frazier doesn’t have the gas tank to go the distance. Espino gets it done inside the distance.

Pedro Munhoz to Win by Decision +100 

Munhoz has gone the distance in 3 of his last 4 fights- winning 2. Caraway is a very good grappler, but I don’t anticipate him diving into a Munhoz choke. Moreover, if Pedro can clip him on the feet we could see BC panic wrestle and that might get him in trouble. Regardless, Munoz pushes forward behind strikes for the full fight and takes a decision.

Darren Stewart to Win by KO/TKO/DQ +130 

Stewart has finished each of his last 2 opponents by knockout and has stopped his foe in the majority of his wins. Look for Shahbazyan to come storming out of the gate, but hit a wall when he is unable to get the Brit out of there. Once he starts to fade, Stewart goes to work and gets the finish.

Antonina Shevchenko to Win by Decision -160 

I considered playing the finish here. Shevchenko can do a lot of damage in that Thai clinch and has pretty good hands. Nonetheless, her kickboxing career wasn’t a showcase of stoppages. There is usually a quality of competition wall that hits most fighters when they come to the UFC. The stoppages dry up for a bit. Kim is tough, but Shevchenko puts on a show for the full 3 rounds.

Rick Glenn/Kevin Aguilar 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Alex Perez to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +275 

Perez showed impressive power and willingness to sit down on his strikes. That confidence comes from his solid counter wrestling. Benavidez has been rocked in multiple bouts and was stopped by DJ. He is getting up there in age and the quickness of Perez combined with the power will be a handful for him.

Tim Means/Ricky Rainey 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Raoni Barcelos/Chris Gutierrez

See Betting Scenario Section.

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