UFC Fight Night 141: Blaydes vs Ngannou 2- Bet Pack Review

UFN 141 Quick Recap
Record: 10-2
Big Bankroll Bundle: 73.21u won
Big Reward Bundle: 25.84u won

  

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Francis Ngannou $7500 
Fighter 2: Alistair Overeem $8000 
Fighter 3: Song Kenan $8300 
Fighter 4: Hu Yaozong $7800  
Fighter 5: Kevin Holland $9500 
Fighter 6: Louis Smolka $8800 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Li Jingliang $8500 
Fighter 2:
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Betting Odds Courtesy of Melbet.org

Curtis Blaydes -233 vs Francis Ngannou +205 

One of my favourite predictions was picking Pennington to beat Andrade after I took Andrade to win their first meeting. Two different winners, but still 2-0. Blaydes opened around +115 and has been steadily bet down. Ngannou was around -155, so we are getting him at maximum value. Melbet has him at +205 which gives us further value compared to most sites. The public tends to be very shallow when researching, only looking at the last fight or 2- those would be arguably 2 of FN’s worst performance. The Lewish fight was also a Post-Title Fight Letdown Scenario for Francis. We are cashing in at the right time. Blaydes is a better fighter then before, but he lacks the striking to hold his own on the feet and his reliance on double leg blasts from distance will have limited impact on Ngannou. Blaydes was rocked by both Hunt and Overeem, Ngannou will hurt him too and seal the deal. Top Silver play, narrowly missing out on a Gold Play.

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Francis is a killer and to get a fighter of his finishing capabilities at $7500 is great. Prior to his mini-slump he was pressing 100 points in every fight. Look for him to do so again with the extra cash saved helping us to deal with the other big favs on the card.

Alistair Overeem +114 vs Sergey Pavlovich -137 

Overeem started as the favourite around -135 and has been rising in value since. It is a similar situation to the fight above, people get burned by a fighter when they go on a slump and they can’t see past previous performances to know when it is time to back a fighter again. Pavlovich is decent, but he doesn’t offer that dangerous/ aggressive striking attack that troubles Overeem. His willingness to sit and wait is going to lessen the likelihood that he can slam a KO shot home. Overeem will maintain his defensive front and pick his shots. Pavs might go to his wrestling, but Overeem isn’t that easy to take down and it is worth noting that AO provides the most dangerous combo of size and skill that SP has ever faced. Silver Bet.

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AO can win this fight and not score a lot. The Werdum fight is a perfect example. Nonetheless, he is affordable and the knockout is almost always one strike away. He gets it back on track here. Add him.

Yagong Song -481 vs Vince Morales +376 

This is a No Play here. Both guys are still developing and while it should be a fun fight let’s avoid investing money in picking a winner. I will look at the Prop options instead.

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We could get a finish, but ‘could’ is not worth a look for $9100. Pass

Jingliang Li -164 vs David Zawada +147 

This should be a very fun/ high energy scrap. Li was floating around -215 when this line when public and most sites now have him closer to -175 to -170. Melbet is giving you a bit of a deal at -164. Zawada could catch him in a rush with a big shot or a sub, but that really feels like a puncher’s chance. Li is the more active and technically sound striker. He is also fully capable of capitalizing on DZ’s willingness to give up position for submission. Look for Li to grab some decent top time and avoid the majority of Zawada’s offerings. Gold play for the local.

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I have Li as a sub. You can swap him in for Smolka. Li should produce good volume in a decision and a finish is also on the table.

Song Kenan -109 vs Alex Morono -110 

This is another one of those fights that we appear to be getting in on at the right moment. Song opened up around -185 and some sites now have him around -107. Melbet, like most other sites, has him a little higher in the -109 to -115 range. I have never been a fan of Morono and I honestly think he is slipping as a fighter. His defensive game both striking and wrestling/grappling is just not like it was. I expect to see the best version of Song yet and he will add in a couple of takedowns if needed. Morono isn’t a finisher so he will need to blow Kenan out of the water to get the nod in China. Gold play for Song.

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I really wanted Li in my lineup with Smolka, but I came up $100 short. Song takes his spot instead. He is a finisher and Morono can be hurt. Kenan will put up some decent volume overall and still might get the finish for a decent price. Add him.

Lauren Mueller -408 vs Yanan Wu +318 

I just don’t see Mueller deserving this much of an edge. She gassed on her Contender’s bout and beat an underwhelming opponent in her debut. Wu didn’t exactly light the world on fire, but she was facing a scrappy opponent in a heavier weight class. I think Wu’s physicality and aggression will hold up much better at 125. It is also worth noting that Mueller took this fight on short notice and fighting overseas could further mess with her endurance. It might not be the most technically sound fight, but WU outworks her for a win at home. Bronze play.

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Most likely going to the cards. I originally had Wu in my spare list, but I pulled her.

Rashad Coulter -130 vs Yaozong Hu +109 

This one could get ugly if it isn’t over quickly. We are getting Hu at the lower end of his value. He opened around +175 and has been bet down significantly. There are a number of sharps backing him in this fight. He is a relative unknown who took his debut on short notice and got subbed by a low-level HW. He also has just a handful of pro fights. Coulter is a boxer with power, but a limited gas tank. He is also very vulnerable to low kicks and takedowns. I expect to see Hu put together a much better performance, keep Coulter pinned on the wall and mat until he fades and is finished. Silver play for Big Hu.

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Hu scored 4 fantasy points in his debut. Nowhere to go but up right? Coulter has been finished in all 3 of his UFC fights including by a near 40-year-old “Dad bod” (I’m jealous) Chris de la Rocha. Yaozong is just 23, look for a sizeable leap in everything and a finish either late in R1 or early in R2.

Jessica Aguilar +366 vs Weili Zhang -417 

I gave some thought to backing the vet here at such a solid price, but this one is better left alone. Aguilar is on the wrong side of 35 and the skills that made her good are faltering. Zhang can scrap and should win the majority of the striking exchanges. No play with a look at a prop bet.

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Too big of a fav to touch.

Pingyuan Liu -247 vs Martin Day +203 

This fight fits in a Bronze bet or not at all. Liu appears to be the more well-rounded and functional fighter, but Day offers enough to be concerned about. I think I will take a pass here and invest elsewhere.

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No Play.

Syuri Kondo +376 vs Xiaonan Yan -435 

I don’t think Kondo is as badly outgunned here as the line indicates. She does a good job of pressuring her opponent and if she can start to break Yan early she can certainly turn this fight in her favour. Syuri coming off a finish doesn’t help the line. Possible counter bet candidate.

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Same as above. Pass.

John Phillips +350 vs Kevin Holland -400 

Holland opened around -270 and that was playable, -400 is not. I really think the UFC sees potential in him and they want to get him back on track after a losing debut. Phillips has power, but he is very vulnerable on the floor. Holland capitalizes on and finishes him. We will look at a prop bet, but no straight bet on KH.

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Holland is getting the call in my Fantasy lineup. He can strike and he can grapple. His range weapons will force Phillips to get reckless attempting to close the gap and that will set up grappling opportunities. Holland taps him, probably in the first.

Louis Smolka -189 vs Sumudaerji Sumudaerji +170 

Welcome back Louis Smolka. He made a nice run at FLW, but got cut, rebounded, and now will get a shot at BW upon his return. Smolka opened at-365, but the line has steadily improved with most sites having him between -220 and -190. Sumudaerji reminds me a lot of Lyoto. He also appears to be very vulnerable on the mat. He has been submitted once and anytime he has been presented with a chance to hit the mat, even in the better position, he bails. Smolka will closethe gap and wear him out. Gold Play for Louis.

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Smolka gets the calls based on his activity rate and his finishing ability. He is affordable and will produce one way or another, maybe with a combo of the 2.

 

1. Kevin Holland -400 

2. Louis Smolka -189 

3.  Jingliang Li -164 

4. Song Kenan -109 

5. Yagong Song -481 

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6. Francis Ngannou +205 

7. Alistair Overeem +114 

8. Xiaonan Yan -435 

9. Yaozong Hu +109 

10. Weili Zhang -417 

11. Pingyuan Liu -247 

12. Yanan Wu +318 

1. Francis Ngannou +205 

2. Alistair Overeem +114 

3. Yaozong Hu +109 

4. Yanan Wu +318 

5. Song Kenan -109 

1. Syuri Kondo +376 – this line is being influenced by her quick finish last time out. A small bet here could be worth a shot.

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Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

 

Curtis Blaydes/Francis Ngannou 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Alistair Overeem/Sergey Pavlovich Total Rounds Over 1.5 -110 

While a HW fight can end with just a single shot, I think this bout has a great chance of hitting the over. It might almost be worth a shot to take Overeem by decision. I will keep it simple. Pavlovich doesn’t like to the push the envelope and we have seen Overeem willingly slip and move, waiting for his moment to strike. This strategic clash could carry this fight beyond the midway mark.

Song Kenan/Alex Morono 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Yaozong Hu to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +210 

Neither man has ever gone the distance. Coulter has only seen the 3rd round once. Unless Yao completely gasses in the process of trying to put Rashad away, he should be able to get the finish. I expect to see Big Hu get on top, wear him down, and force the ref to step in once Coulter can’t defend anymore. I am little concerned he might go for an RNC, but at such an early point in his career- a win by GNP seems more likely.

Weili Zhang to Win by Decision -145 

We have had some success this year taking lobsided WMMA lines and backing the fav in a prop. Aguilar can take a beating and while Zhang can crack, I don’t think she can get Jessica out of there. Weili lands the better strikes, defends a couple of TDAs, and gets the nod at home.

Xiaonan Yan to Win by Decision-167 

Similar thought process as above. Kondo was stopped in her last fight, but it was due to a big body kick. Yan will throw with power, but I see this fight going the distance. She has seen a stark increase in fight time to go along with an increase in quality of opposition- that continues here.

John Phillips/Kevin Holland 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Louis Smolka/Sumudaerji Sumudaerji 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

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