UFC Fight Night 140: Ponzinibbio vs Magny- Bet Pack Review

UFN 140 Quick Recap
Record: 8-4
Big Bankroll Bundle: 85.46u won
Big Reward Bundle: 49.76u won

 

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Santiago Ponzinibbio $9000 
Fighter 2: Marlon Vera $9200 
Fighter 3: Cynthia Calvillo $7900 
Fighter 4: Cezar Ferreira $8400 
Fighter 5: Hector Aldana $8000 
Fighter 6: Johnny Walker $7400 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Alexandre Pantoja $9300 
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Santiago Ponzinibbio -225 vs Neil Magny +230 

Ponzinibbio opened as the dog around +160 but has quickly taken over as the favourite. The line appears to be moving in our direction with Ponz still sitting around -300 on a few sites, but drifting down. I have seen him as low as -210. I could see him coming in around -190 by fight time. Magny is a dangerous opponent, but he traditionally feasts on guys that fade. He also has major issues with power strikers. For Magny to win he will need to survive 2, maybe 3 rounds of offense before he can stem the tide. I like Santiago to replicate the Larkin/ Magny matchup. Gold play for the man fighting at home.

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Ponzinibbio isn’t cheap, but he is worth the price. He is a known commodity with finishing power, fighting at home, and 5 rounds to land offence over. If he doesn’t get the finish early, look for Santiago to pile up the damage and potentially combine it with a late stoppage. Add him.

Ricardo Lamas -160 vs Darren Elkins +175 

I like Darren Elkins, but there is a ceiling to the type of opponent that he can beat. His key to success is durability and heart. Take as much damage as his opponent can dish out, they fade, and he capitalizes. The big question is, where does Lamas fit in? He was a step below the elite, but he is trending down now. Nonetheless, he has all the tools to get this one done and doesn’t fit the profile of the guys that Damage usually beats. Ricardo opened around -195 so we are getting him at peak value here. I think he takes this quite handily with low kicks and a stiff jab. Gold Play.

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Elkins is just too tough to consider a play here on Lamas. Pass.

Johnny Walker +175 vs Khalil Rountree -170 

Everyone is loving on Rountree and I get that. He smashed an elite level kickboxer that was expected to come into MMA and end worlds. He is still a one round fighter with a sizeable vulnerability on the mat. He is also an undersized LHW. Walker is really green, but he is huge and will trade on the feet to go along with some skill on the mat. I am selling high on Rountree when his opponent is worth the most. Walker is will pose some issues if KR can’t get him out of there early. Bronze Play.

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I like Walker in my Fantasy lineup. If Khalil can’t get the win early he becomes incredibly vulnerable, especially on the mat. Walker is cheap with a legit chance to get a finish.

Cezar Ferreira -170 vs Ian Heinisch +165 

There were a few sites that posted Ferreira as a dog, shop around. Anytime I saw Heinisch face a capable and willing grappler he got himself in trouble. Sometimes he got out, but Perez tapped him in a similar approach to what Ferreira likes to use. If Ian wasn’t coming in on such short notice and so focussed on takedowns, I would give him a look. I like Cezar to ground him and submit him. Silver play.

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Ferreira is pretty affordable at $8400 and his ability to lock up the top position arm-triangle choke is in play here. If he can’t get the early tap, look for Heinish to slow down and either get tapped later or give up a lot of takedowns. Add him.

Guido Cannetti +269 vs Marlon Vera -302 

Vera is taking a lot of action and moving down in value. Some site have him around -330. I have him in my Silver section as a 3rd leg of a parlay or nothing at all. I’m backing him because both Chito and Guido are more known commodities when compared to most pairings on this card. Vera simply offers more as a fighter and fighting at home won’t be enough for Cannetti. Silver Play.

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Vera is a legit finishing threat both via sub and knockout and Cannetti tends to gas. He is also vulnerable on the floor. Add him.

Cynthia Calvillo +165 vs Poliana Botelho -145 

Wow did CC look rough at the first weigh-in. Really rough. Fortunately, she already appears on her way to recovering as she was looking much better at the ceremonial weigh-ins. Calvillo started as a fav around -165 and has steadily increased in value. I love it. Botelho has been a killer, but finding that first opponent that doesn’t go away on first contact is the key. Calvillo will look to wrestle her and work towards that sub. I am going to stick with my initial instinct and play the dog as a Gold Play.

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Calvillo has good submission skills and could get it early or ware Poliana down and get it later. The low price point and ability to finish makes her a must add. 

Bartosz Fabinski +150 vs Michel Prazeres -155 

I like this play. I was a little shocked how easily most cappers/ predictors are dismissing Fabinski. Prazeres didn’t look that great against Cummings and if Zak had not have sat back early, he could have worn him down quicker. Fabinski’s commitment to shooting early and often and/or utilizing the clinch is going to be key here. Even if Prazeres wins the first round, look for him to start to slow and Fabinski to take over in rounds 2 and 3. Top Silver play for Bartosz!

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Fabinski is a decision machine. He is cheaper, but I don’t feel he is a good play. Avoid.

Alexandre Pantoja -331 vs Ulka Sasaki +300 

This is Pantoja’s fight to win, but I don’t like him at this price. I might take a stab at a prop bet.

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Pantoja is a spair. He has the grappling chops to replicate the issues that Ulka has had in the past that got him subbed. Swap him with Vera to create a little diversity.

Austin Arnett -215 vs Humberto Bandenay -239 

Bandenay has fought twice but has never seen the minute mark of the first round. Arnett has fought twice in the UFC and once on the Contenders Series and I feel we have seen enough to recognize that he is not UFC calibre. I am not overly confident this pick, but I feel Humberto has shown us more. A Bronze play or nothing.

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Pass against a pretty durable fighter.

Hector Aldana -125 vs Laureano Staropoli +113 

Aldana opened at +240 and has been dropping in value ever since. I was not impressed with Staropoli. In the footage that I saw, he was under attack and struggling with pressure before scoring the knockout. He has also faced some pretty poor competition and is coming off a layoff heading into his debut-that is a lot. Aldana had not fought in 5 years before his debut and was looking decent before he got cracked. I think he utilizes his takedowns and aggressive striking to grab this one. Bronze play here.

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Aldana is relatively cheap and hits hard. Again, I am not impressed with what I saw out of Staropoli- a knockout or sub is on the table.

Devin Powell +186 vs  Jesus Pinedo -185 

Pinedo is another one of those debuting fighters that we don’t know a lot about. Powell is durable, but he is there to be hit. I like the price on Pinedo enough to give him a look in the Bronze section.

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I will pass here based on Powell’s durability.

Anderson dos Santiago +304 vs Nad Narimani -303 

This is a pass for me. Too little reward on the risk for Nad. I will look at the prop options.

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Pass.

 

1. Marlon Vera -302 

2. Alexandre Pantoja -331 

3. Ricardo Lamas -160 

4. Nad Narimani -303 

5. Santiago Ponzinibbio -225 

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6. Cynthia Calvillo +165 

7. Cezar Ferreira -170 

8. Bartosz Fabinski +150 

9. Humberto Bandenay -239 

10. Jesus Pinedo -185 

11. Hector Aldana -125 

12. Johnny Walker +175 

1. Cynthia Calvillo +165 

2. Bartosz Fabinski +150 

3. Johnny Walker +175 

4. Ricardo Lamas -160 

5. Hector Aldana -125 

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Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Ricardo Lamas to Win by Decision +155 

Lamas has finishing skills, but Elkins is a tough out. Darren has gone 11 fights without getting stopped and has been finished just 3 times in 30 fights. That is remarkable considering how much damage he takes. Lamas will be aware of the danger of going too hard early and letting Elkins rally back. Lamas takes it on the cards.

Johnny Walker/Khalil Rountree Total Rounds Under 1.5 -160 

This might be an option if you don’t want to commit on the dog. Rountree hits like a truck, but he starts to tire before R1 is done if he can’t get the finish. Walker will come out and trade, but a finish on the mat could also materialize. I like the Under here coming from either side.

Marlon Vera to Win by Submission +200 

Getting this play at anything in the plus range is huge. Cannetti has been subbed 3-times and twice in the UFC. Vera is capable from both top and bottom positions. My biggest concern is what happened last time if he gets the stoppage on the feet.

Cynthia Calvillo/Poliana Botelho Total Rounds Under 2.5 +115 

I am going to post 2 plays for this fight and they could both hit. I never expected to get plus money on 2.5 rounds. Botelho has been a killer and Calvillo could be compromised. We have also seen Cynthia’s submission game ends a couple of fights in the UFC. This keeps both girls in play.

Cynthia Calvillo to Win by Submission +400 

Here is the back half of my double prop play. I can’t leave this play untouched. CC has a pair of submission wins in the UFC and is aggressive on the mat. We have yet to see Botelho put under duress, especially on the floor. She struggled with grappling pressure of Gonzalez and if she can’t separate- she will be in trouble.

Bartosz Fabinski/Michel Prazeres 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Devin Powell/Jesus Pinedo

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Anderson dos Santiago/Nad Narimani

See the Betting Scenario Section.

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