UFC Fight Night 139: Korean Zombie vs Rodriguez- Bet Pack Review

UFN 139 Quick Recap
Record: 10-2
Big Bankroll Bundle: 65.84u won
Big Reward Bundle: 97.79u won

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Yair Rodriguez $7700 
Fighter 2: Mike Perry $8900 
Fighter 3: Germaine De Randamie $8800 
Fighter 4: Bobby Moffett $7800
Fighter 5: Ashley Yoder $8600 
Fighter 6: Eric Shelton $8200 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: 
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Chan Sung Jung -102 vs Yair Rodriguez +100 

Rodriguez opened as a big dog around the +220 mark so we are getting nowhere near the price we could have got when he opened. That being said, I still really like him over Zombie. Zombie is just too willing to push forward and take damage. He is a little on the slow side and I can’t imagine getting older and inactivity are going to make him quicker. My biggest concern is that Yair gets too flashy and ends up on his back too often. KZ is tough, but Rodriguez will light him up. Gold play for Yair.

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Rodriguez is also going to get the call for my Fantasy lineup. He hits hard and is facing an opponent that likes to get hit. Over 5 rounds we could get a stoppage or a high output point production- maybe a combo of the 2. Add him.

Donald Cerrone +179 vs Mike Perry -185 

I just don’t trust Cowboy anymore. His title fight loss and then downturn at WW seem to have killed his hunger. Perry is aggressive and hits hard. That has been enough to get Cerrone out of there in the past. I don’t feel super strong about this fight as Perry is pretty flawed as well- Bronze play.

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Perry does get a Fantasy nod. If he wins, it is most likely by stoppage. I expect to see him come out swinging with bad intentions. There are several bigger favs over the $9000 mark so I will bite on Perry at $8900.

Germaine De Randamie -175 vs Raquel Pennington +170 

I am jumping all over the post-title fight letdown scenario here. Pennington took a beating and folded up due to the damage. If she comes out flat at all and doesn’t execute the perfect gameplan GDR is going to blast her. Pennington needs to wrestle. She just doesn’t offer enough on the feet to hang with GDR. Germaine’s striking is longer, heavier, and more technically sound. Silver play for the short-lived Featherweight champion.

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GDR is a little more affordable than other favourites and she hits very hard. Unless she gets grounded or opts to sit back and pot shot for 15 minutes, a finish is a real possibility here.

Beneil Dariush -140 vs Thiago Moises +135 

Dariush is getting another short notice opponent with some bounce in his step. Dariush opened at -190 and has steadily come down. I really think that is a product of the public recalling him getting ghosted by Hernandez and expecting a similar result. I am not ruling that out, but I don’t see Moises as a similar threat. I think Dariush gets it going, he is too good a fighter to go winless in 4- Silver play.

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I will pass here. Too expensive and not a strong enough edge for a finish.

Hannah Cifers +350 vs Maycee Barber -395 

Barber is still very green. This line makes it easy to pass on this one.

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Nope. I see a lot of potential for a grinding decision.

Luis Pena -159 vs Mike Trizano +155 

There is some decent money coming in on Trizano. I have read that a lot of sharps are getting some dog money in, but the public is also making the line move. Trizano at face value is an undefeated TUF winner of the same season that Pena competed on. For a lot of people, that is enough to lay the cash. I like Pena here to push forward and overwhelm Trizano for the duration of the fight. Consider he opened close to -280 I am all over him for a Gold play at this price.

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Unfortunately, Pena is too expensive to back. Pass.

Amanda Cooper +135 vs Ashley Yoder -145 

This line has almost completely rolled over. Yoder opened as the dog so we aren’t getting her at her peak return, but I am still down. I think her 0-3 UFC record played a massive role in how the line was set.  She is the better grappler and should be able to hold her own on the feet. Cooper is scrappy but gets herself in trouble. I have liked what I have seen in Yoder, even in defeat, but not so much from ABC. Yoder is a Gold play.

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Yoder is on the team. I am not super thrilled about my Fantasy lineup, but this one makes sense to me. ABC has been subbed in all of her UFC defeats and she has pretty shakey TDD. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Yoder grind out a decision, but getting her submission game back on track is also a real possibility.

Bobby Moffett -105 vs Chas Skelly +100 

Moffett is a newcomer and the opening line reflected that. Skelly is one of those tough/ talented veterans that a lot of people like. Unfortunately, he is 33 and has struggled to stay active. It is also worth noting that he has had a lot of issues with takedown-oriented opponents. His gas tank isn’t great and if he starts slow he won’t have the cardio to rally late. Similar fighters, but I like the younger guy here. If Moffett wasn’t debuting he is probably a Silver play, but I will back him as a strong Bronze bet.

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Moffett is a dog with good takedowns and strong grappling skills. I don’t expect to see him submit Skelly, unless Chas gets really tired by before the mid-way mark of the fight. Again, not my favourite lineup but add Moffett.

Davi Ramos -780 vs John Gunther +775 

A hard pass here. Gunther is scrappy enough to grind this one out if Ramos lets him.

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Too expensive.

Devonte Smith -215 vs Julian Erosa +200 

Erosa is the more experienced and known fighter, but it didn’t take long for him to become the dog in this fight. The guy is just way too hittable and Smith hits too hard. I was originally going to pass on Smith, but I feel he could contribute as an extra leg in the Silver section. When I get down to the units I will make that final call.

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Smith is too expensive without several dogs to add to your lineup.

Eric Shelton -112 vs Joseph Morales +105 

Shelton has been a little underwhelming of late, but we need to consider that he has faced some good competition in defeat. he is the better wrestler and better striker to go along with being the superior athlete. Unless Morales can keep him down for 2 rounds or grab a sub, Shelton outworks him.

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Shelton was the only pick I had left that was still affordable after buying my first 5 fighters. I could go flashy with a counter pick that most likely only wins by finish- but I will ride with Eric.

Joby Sanchez +225 vs Mark De La Rosa -245 

De La Rosa has lost some value over time and will probably continue to do so. I think he works in the Bronze section, but I might consider a prop bet on him instead.

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Too expensive. He has legit finishing skills, but I will pass because I can’t afford him

 

1. Davi Ramos -780 

2. Ashley Yoder -145 

3. Luis Pena -159 

4. Yair Rodriguez +100 

5. Devonte Smith -215 

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6. Germaine De Randamie -175 

7. Mark De La Rosa -245 

8. Mike Perry -185 

9. Eric Shelton -112 

10. Beneil Dariush -140 

11. Bobby Moffett -105 

12. Maycee Barber -395 

1. Yair Rodriguez +100 

2. Eric Shelton -112 

3. Bobby Moffett -105 

4. Ashley Yoder -145 

5. Luis Pena -159 

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Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Germaine De Randamie to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +325 

Pennington just missed weight, but I am going to stick with GDR. She hits hard and Raquel is the type of fighter that will stand and trade. You have to question the mental state of Rocky after her last fight. GDR by knockout is worth the play at this price.

Amanda Cooper/Ashley Yoder 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Bobby Moffett to Win by Decision +165 

Skelly is a very good grappler and I see these guys matching up well. Unless Chas completely fades and Moffett then can lock up the finish, I see Bobby winning this fight on the cards with takedowns and top position.

Devonte Smith to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +125 

I love Smith’s jab and when he backs in with power strikes he has the ability to replicate the issues that Erosa has had in the past. Look for Julian to willingly mix it up and pay for it.

Eric Shelton/ Joseph Morales 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Joby Sanchez/ Mark De La Rosa 

See Betting Scenario Section.

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