UFC Fight Night 145- Event Recap & Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Night 145- Event Recap & Bet Pack Review

The UFC opened up another territory with their first endeavour to the capital of the Czech Republic, Prague. Despite a roster devoid of noteworthy local talent, the promotion put forth a respectable and entertaining card. Overall, eight European fighters took home victories on a card that included seven finishes- including three straight to end the show. I went 8-5, with most of my big plays coming through and both segments of the Bet Pack producing a solid return. Let’s take a look at what went wrong and what went right in Prague.

What Went Right?

  • Carlos Ferreira fought almost a perfect fight. He was more active on the feet and either successfully defended or attack every time Khabilov tried to take him down.
  • The Canadian “Savage” Gillian Robertson stayed true to form and kept attacking Macedo on the mat until she found the finish. I had her in my Gold play and promoted the sub prop.
  • John Dodson was a little more aggressive than expected, but Petr Yan fought an excellent fight. He back Dodson up, hurt him, but didn’t finish him. The Decision prop cashed nicely.
  • My #1 play of the night, Liz Carmouche came through with flying colours. She was on the wrong end of the striking totals, but landed a trio of finding clinching takedowns. Combined with Yan by Decision and Robertson’s win, Liz made for a big return.
  • Michał Oleksiejczuk put down Villante quicker than expected, but the win was solid nonetheless.
  • If it was the end, it was a nice way to go out for Stefan Struve. Struve survived the early onslaught and got the sub in round 2. He was my top Silver play and executed perfectly.

What Went Wrong?

  • The first major loss of the night came largely because Marco Polo Reyes refused to adapt. Hadzovic went offensive with his wrestling, something his opponents have used against him, and put Reyes down for the finish.
  • Carlo Pedersoli Jr. wasn’t a huge loss, but it was looking decent for almost the entire round until the finish. I think he got a little overconfident and allowed Grant to get back into a fight he was largely sleepwalking through.
  • A nasty broken nose and inability to get the fight to the floor prevented Klidson de Abreu from finding the victory. It wasn’t an overwhelming performance from Magomed Ankalaev which has me questioning if he is going to be a major player in the future for the Light Heavyweight division.
  • Finally, Jan Blachowicz fought a reserved opening two rounds, failing to push Santos to the degree needed to get him to slow down. Jan also failed to implement his takedowns, something he had done effectively during his winning streak. Leaving Santos dangerous that deep into a fight was dangerous and he paid for it.

Final Thoughts

  • Is Thiago Santos next in line for a title shot? Maybe, and if Jones puts Smith away in a tidy fashion Thiago could step up and stake a claim to a title fight before the Summer is out.
  • I went 8-5, not a great record, but had the main event gone the right way 9-4 would have been much more acceptable.
  • Picking up multiple key wins is hopefully a sign of things to come.
  • My Bet Packs also had a solid return. Check out the Tweet below and the full Bet Pack below that.

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Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

 

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Jan Blachowicz  To WIN -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 6u
RETURN: 11.45u

 

BET #2
+ Liz Carmouche   To WIN -137
+ Gillian Robertson   To WIN -149
ODDS: +189
BET: 9u
RETURN: 26.02u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Stefan Struve   To WIN +105
ODDS: +105
BET: 5u
RETURN: 10.25u

 

BET #2
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk   To WIN -190
+ Marco Polo Reyes   To WIN +100
ODDS: +205
BET: 5u
RETURN: 15.26u

Bronze Plays

BET #1 
+ Diego Ferreira   To WIN +132
ODDS: +132
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9.28

 

BET #2
+ Klidson de Abreu   To WIN +175
ODDS: +175
BET: 3u
RETURN: 8.25u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Gillian Robertson  to Win by Submission +155
ODDS: +155
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12.75u

 

BET #2
+ Petr Yan  to WIN by Decision -155
+ Liz Carmouche  to WIN -137
ODDS: +185
BET: 5u
RETURN: 14.23u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Liz Carmouche To WIN -137
+ Gillian Robertson To WIN -149
+ Jan Blachowicz   To WIN -110
ODDS: +452
BET: 9u
RETURN: 49.67u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Stefan Struve   To WIN +105
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk   To WIN -190
+ Marco Polo Reyes   To WIN +100
ODDS: +526
BET: 7u
RETURN: 43.81u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Diego Ferreira   To WIN +132
+ Klidson de Abreu   To WIN +175
+ Carlo Pedersoli Jr.   To WIN -137
ODDS: +1004
BET: 5u
RETURN: 55.18u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Gillian Robertson  to WIN by Submission +155
+ Petr Yan  to WIN by Decision -150
+ Liz Carmouche  to WIN -137
ODDS: +635
BET: 7u
RETURN: 51.47u

 

BET #2
+ de Lima/Struve  Total Rounds Under 1.5 +115
+ Carlo Pedersoli Jr   to WIN by Decision +145
+ Marco Polo Reyes  to WIN +100
ODDS: +954
BET: 5u
RETURN: 52.68

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Jan Blachowicz $7700
+  Stefan Struve $7800
+ Polo Reyes $8800
+ Gillian Robertson $8600
+ Liz Carmouche $8300
+ Klidson de Abeu $7100

Spares

+ Michal Oleksiejczuk $8900
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Jan Blachowicz -110 vs Thiago Santos -120

This line is almost dead even on any book you can find and it makes sense. Both guys have legit tools to win this fight and if they fought 10 times they could easily split the outcomes. Santos is the flashier and more exciting pick and that probably contributed to him opening as the Favourite. I feel like Jan’s durability and recent focus on a ground-based attack are his keys here. If Thiago goes for the finish and can’t get it, his cardio will suffer and it will open himself up to taking damage. His chin is good, but not bulletproof. Jan makes for a Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also have him in my Fantasy Lineup. He has 5-rounds to combine punching and takedown volume and a stoppage by submission or knockout is also possible. On top of all of this, he is affordable. Add him.

Rogerio de Lima -112 vs Stefan Struve +105

I feel there is a pattern that is being followed here. A lot of times we see a fighter move up a weight class out of desperation, win an early fight or 2 before things start to turn sour. That could be the case here. De Lima is faced with the most significant aspect of the size factor at HW. Struve is underrated and has the grappling attack to exploit the major issues that RdL has on the mat. If you can grab Struve as a dog, jump on it. There is still solid value on him at anything under -165.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Struve is affordable and can finish, most likely by submission. de Limas is not great outside of round one and is known to make poor choices on the mat. Add him.

Gian Villante +174 vs Michal Oleksiejczuk -190

If Oleksiejczuk isn’t impacted by the layoff, stylistically this is a good fight for him. Villante goes hard and fades. If his opponent fades, he is still in it, if they don’t- he struggles. Oleksiejczuk does a good job of rolling with his opponent’s offense and taking over. The line on Oleksiejczuk is fairly consistent, slipping to -200 on some books. Villante is the better athlete and the layoff ultimately prevents the Polish fighter from being a top pick. Silver Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Oleksiejczuk is a little expensive, but I have him as a spare to help break things.

Liz Carmouche -137 vs Lucie Pudilova +123

Carmouche is going to be one of my top plays, if not my #1. My big concern is that she waits too long on her wrestling and opens the door for a hometown decision. Pudilova is vulnerable on the floor and Carmouche has taken pretty much everyone down. This is Liz’s fight to win, she wrestles her way to victory in enemy territory. Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

The takedowns and a potential ground-based finish are there for Carmouche to scoop up. She is a known commodity and will be overlooked by most players looking for a heavy-hitting male pick. Add her.

John Dodson +257 vs Petr Yan -270

This is a nice step up for Yan, but also a big step. If he wins, it is all systems go for a run at the elite of the division. For this reason and considering there are other options I will most likely overlook a straight up bet, but a prop option is definitely an option.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Dodson is durable and hard to hit sometimes. Pass.

Klidson de Abreu +175 v Magomed Ankalaev -199

I feel like I am alone on this one for the most part. Or at least I did for a bit, but seeing that the line on de Abreu is coming down a bit I feel like people are backing the Brazilian a little more now. Ankalaev seems a little loose defensively and that ill get him in trouble against an opportunistic grappler. Look for LdA (despite missing weight) to snatch a sub here. There is still a lot to learn here- Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

He is much more affordable than I needed for my final play, but if he wins this fight it will be inside the distance. Might as well make it count.

Carlo Pedersoli Jr. -137 vs Dwight Grant +133

Grant looked incredibly underwhelming against one of the most underwhelming fighters on the roster. He still probably won, but seriously that was not a good performance. Can he rebound here? Sure can, I just don’t feel it is worth betting on. Pedersoli is the more active and diverse striker and the line has stayed fairly true. Junior is coming off of a big knockout loss, but this is also is first full camp UFC fight. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I see this one going the distance. Pass.

Daniel Teymur +220 vs Chris Fishgold -225

Yeah I will pass here. Teymur is capable of getting an opponent out of there if he connects and we still need more info on Fishgold. Better options out there. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing doing here either.

Gillian Robertson -149 vs Veronica Macedo +148

Another one of my top plays for the night. Macedo can’t seem to defend the takedown and Robertson has had a lot of success on the mat, even in her defeat. The Canadian opened close to -200, so our return has improved over the week. Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I see Robertson getting the finish either early in round 1 or after 2-3 takedowns and Macedo starts to slow. She is relatively affordable considering her stylistic edge.

Damir Hadzovic -105 vs Marco Polo Reyes +100

This fight should be a barn burner. Reyes opened as the fav around -120, but has steadily improved in price. This is a near even fight, but Reyes has a far better track record and should be able to either outwork him or finish him. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Marco Polo in my lineups. He is cheap, can finish, and can put up volume if this fight goes into the second half. Those are all options we want to have available to us. Add him.

Michel Prazeres -400 vs Ismail Naurdiev +363

Nothing doing here. Easy Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I think Prazeres could get the finish, but I am not willing to compromise my buying power.

Rustam Khabilov -137 vs Diego Ferreira +132

Ferreira missed weight which is upsetting, but I still like him. This fight was nearly even at the open. I’m not sold on Khabilov based on his poor striking volume. He seems incredibly timid. I picked Adriano Martins against several years ago and I like Diego for similar reasons. This fight bordered on a Silver bet, but I will drop it to a Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Damir Ismagulov -265 vs Joel Alvarez +265

Nothing doing here. Ismagulov most likely wins, but I didn’t get enough recent footage on Alvares to really feel good about a line like this. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Ismagulov lacks urgency at times. I see a potential decision. Pass.

 

Confidence List

1. Liz Carmouche -137

2. Michel Prazeres -400

3. Petr Yan -270

4. Gillian Robertson -149

5. Jan Blachowicz -110

====================

6. Michal Oleksiejczuk -190

7. Stefan Struve +105

8. Marco Polo Reyes +100

9. Damir Ismagulov -265

10. Diego Ferreira +132

11. Carlo Pedersoli Jr. -137

12. Chris Fishgold -225

13. Klidson de Abreu +175

 

Value Bet List

1. Stefan Struve +105

2. Marco Polo Reyes +100

3. Diego Ferreira +132

4. Klidson de Abreu +175

5. Liz Carmouche -137

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

EPU Candidate(s)

1. Rustam Khabilov/Diego Ferreira

I feel like this one could go the distance in most scenarios unless Ferreira can hurt Rustam. I will ride with the dog straight up and try not to complicate things.

2. Damir Ismagulov/Joel Alvarez

Alvarez can finish, but I don’t have him winning this fight. Ismagulov has a style that tends to lead to decisions. He is superior in most areas but doesn’t open up. I will pass here as well.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
8
11
12
3 of 12 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
126650%

FPO Candidate

1. Carlo Pedersoli Jr to Win by Decision +145

If Pedersoli wins, it will most likely be by decision. If Grant wins it will be via knockout. I like Pedersoli to work a more active game and mix in well-timed takedowns as Grant looks for the homerun shot. If you feel like Pedersoli isn’t worth a shot straight up, this might your best option if you want to back a horse in this race.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
115645%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
82625%

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Jan Blachowicz -110 vs Thiago Santos -120

2. Rogerio de Lima -112 vs Stefan Struve +105

3. Liz Carmouche -137 vs Lucie Pudilova +123

4. Carlo Pedersoli Jr. -137 vs Dwight Grant +133

5. Gillian Robertson -149 vs Veronica Macedo +148

6. Damir Hadzovic -105 vs Marco Polo Reyes +100

7. Rustam Khabilov -137 vs Diego Ferreira +132

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
66293744%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
178958353%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
66303645%

 

Prop Bets

Rogerio de Lima/Stefan Struve Total Rounds Under 1.5 +115

I was surprised to see this fight at plus money on most books for the Under. This play keeps both fighters finishing skills in play and with a combined 35 fights ending inside the first frame it is certainly worth a look.

Petr Yan to Win by Decision -155

This pick is largely based on the durability of Dodson. He has never been finished and while he himself is dangerous, I feel his style puts him in a spot to drop a decision. Yan is more active and aggressive which will sit well with the judges. I like Petr on the cards here.

Carlo Pedersoli Jr/Dwight Grant

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Gillian Robertson to Win by Submission +155

I love the way Robertson works on the mat. She recognizes her strength and plans accordingly. Not only is it her strength in this fight, but it is also her opponent’s weakness. Macedo is flawed defensively and Robertson should be able to get her neck or arm for a finish. Solid return.

Rustam Khabilov/Diego Ferreira

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Damir Ismagulov/Joel Alvarez

See the Betting Scenario Section.