UFN 152: dos Anjos vs Lee Recap- 165-pound future?

UFN 152: dos Anjos vs Lee Recap- 165-pound future?

With the former Lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos returning to the win column after a pair of losses to the divisions elite, it might be worth time to at least consider a looking a slight divisional realignment. While the UFC appears uninterested in creating another division, I feel the move is warranted. I am not a fan of having both 165 and 170-pound divisions with just 5-pounds between the, so a little more movement might be required.

If the UFC were to legitimately add another division, they might need a slight deviation from the traditional Weight classes. Instead of Welterweight peaking at 170-pounds, I would like to see the UFC bumped GSP’s former domain to 175lbs and put a 165-pound division between Welterweight and Lightweight.

While this move doesn’t appear to be on the horizon, let’s take a look at a few fighters that would benefit from a divisional shakeup.

Rafael Dos Anjos

The former Lightweight Champion simply isn’t big enough to compete with the hulking elite at Welterweight. Both Usman and Covington were able to grind him down and Lee even had some success early. The cut to Lightweight might be too much for the Brazilian, but avoiding the larger wrestling based opponents of the Welterweight division would be ideal.

Kevin Lee

Lee is in physical purgatory. Too big to make Lightweight without draining himself, but a little too short to deal with the length at Welterweight. Lee is a solid wrestler with a reach advantage over most opponents. Unfortunately, his cardio has been his undoing. Either a hard cut to 155 or the issue of carrying too much weight at 170, he tends to slow down in more grueling bouts. The 165-pound class could be the perfect balance for Kevin.

James Vick

Vick is huge for 155-pounds and is still making the weight comfortably. As he gets older, that will change. His chin has been a bit of an issue which could be rectified with a less demanding drop to 165. The speed of the smaller Lightweights has also been an issue for Vick who would still have a size length advantage in a slightly heavier division.

Donald Cerrone

Cerrone is proving to still be one of the best Lightweights around and he did put together a solid run at Welterweight when he first made the move. Cerrone is getting older so this will most likely be his final run at Lightweight once it comes to his conclusion. While he can more than hold his own at 170, the larger framed opponents like Leon Edwards and Darren Till are just too much. Cerrone’s best bet to hold UFC Gold could be in a division that might not materialize until after he has road off into the sunset.

Jorge Masvidal

Masvidal is bigger than most people realize, but he has gone up and down between 155 and 170 throughout his career. He appears set at Welterweight now and is closing on a shot at the strap. The former Strikeforce title challenger is one of the most underrated fighters in the division and by removing the type of opponent that could use a slight physical edge to grind him down- there might not be much left to stop him from hold the 165-pound title.

Conor McGregor

The division needs star power to get it off and rolling and while I am usually not a fan, the Irishman would be a perfect fit to help launch the division. The Lightweight cut is doable for Conor, but a slightly less demanding drop to 165 could offer a nice balance between gains and losses of physical attributes.

How to get it started?

I always love tournaments and similar to the launch of the faltering Flyweight division, a 4-man bracket would be a perfect debut for this title. The opening round could feature RDA and McGregor turning back the clock to a previous engagement that never materialized. The other semi-final would feature a rematch between Masivdal and Cerrone. Lee could meet Vick in an alternate bout.

At first glance, I have RDA and Masvidal heading to the title fight with Kevin Lee grinding his way to a win in the alternate bout. In the finals, two very well-rounded fighters would square off with Masvidal utilizing his sharp boxing and counter wrestling to deal with the pressure based attack of RDA. In the end, a close decision goes to Masvidal along with the newly minted 165-pound title.

Final Thoughts

Overall, I went 9-4 with my 3rd straight main event win. All three of those wins have come since my decision to start breaking down the main event before working on any other fights. We will see if it continues. My HBC bets cashed huge again with over 70 units won, it would appear that the slump has turned into a decent streak with a 42-18 record (70%) over the last 5 events. Let’s keep it rolling!

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

 

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Rafael dos Anjos  to WIN -110
+ Charles Oliveira  to WIN -350
ODDS: +145
BET: 8u
RETURN: 19.64u

 

BET #2
+ Grant Dawson  to WIN -125
+ Aspen Ladd  to WIN -300
ODDS: +140
BET: 8u
RETURN: 19.2u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Felicia Spencer  to WIN +175
ODDS: +175
BET: 4u
RETURN: 11u

 

BET #2
+ Antonio Carlos Junior  to WIN -170
+ Trevin Giles  to WIN -160
ODDS: +158
BET: 6u
RETURN: 15.49u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Aspen Ladd  to Win by TKO/KO +300
ODDS: +300
BET: 4u
RETURN: 16u

 

BET #2
+ Julio Arce  to Win by TKO/KO +275
+ Vicente Luque to Win by TKO/KO -125
ODDS: +575
BET: 3u
RETURN: 20.25u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Rafael dos Anjos to WIN  -110
+ Trevin Giles  to WIN -160
+ Grant Dawson  to WIN -125
ODDS: +458
BET: 3u
RETURN: 16.75u

 

BET #2
+ Charles Oliveira  to Win by Submission -165
+ Davi Ramos  to Win by Submission -150
ODDS: +168
BET: 3u
RETURN: 8.03u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Rafael dos Anjos  to WIN -110
+ Charles Oliveira  to Win by Submission -165
ODDS: +207
BET: 10u
RETURN: 30.66u

 

BET #2
+ Grant Dawson  to WIN -125
+ Aspen Ladd   to Win by TKO/KO +300
ODDS: +620
BET: 9u
RETURN: 64.8u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Antonio Carlos Junior  to WIN -170
+ Felicia Spencer  to WIN +175
+ Trevin Giles  to WIN -160
ODDS: +610
BET: 6u
RETURN: 42.58u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Julio Arce  to Win by TKO/KO +275
+ Vicente Luque to Win by TKO/KO -125
+ Danny Roberts  to WIN -250
+ Patrick Cummins  to WIN -250
ODDS: +1223
BET: 5u
RETURN: 66.15

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Rafael dos Anjos to WIN  -110
+ Trevin Giles  to WIN -160
+ Grant Dawson  to WIN -125
+ Davi Ramos  to Win by Submission -150
ODDS: +1296
BET: 4u
RETURN: 55.84u

BET #2
+ Charles Oliveira  to Win by Submission -165
+ Julio Arce  to Win by TKO/KO +275
+ Vicente Luque to Win by TKO/KO -125
+ Aspen Ladd   to Win by TKO/KO +300
ODDS: +4236
BET: 4u
RETURN: 173.45u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Rafael dos Anjos $8200
+ Felicia Spencer $7700
+ Aspen Ladd $9100
+ Grant Dawson $7900
+ Trevin Giles $8400
+ Antonio Carlos Junior $8700

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Rafael dos Anjos -110 vs Kevin Lee -110

The line has stayed in this range, but both fighters have spent time as the fav and you can find each man still there depending on the site. I feel the perception of RDA has been impacted by his losses to Usman and Covington. Those guys are elite. RDA was at the top at LW, not there at WW, but close. I don’t feel Lee is in their league and RDA should be able to defend the takedowns, outwork him and pull away. I had RDA closer to -160. I will take him as a Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also have RDA in my lineup. He is affordable and has shown he can produce both finishes and big volume numbers over a 5-round fight. RDA gets it done, pulling away as Lee fades. Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Antonio Carlos Junior -170 vs Ian Heinisch +140

Heinisch was a bigger dog at the open and ACJ was floating around the -225 mark on some sites. The line has improved for us, but I have heard a lot of support for Heinisch and he does have a solid path to victory here. If he can stay vertical, for ACJ to work for everything he has the style to both exhaust him and finish him. I wasn’t impressed with IH’s TDD vs Ferreria. I felt he gave up too many TDs and while he got back to his feet, I feel ACJ will make him pay. ACJ’s grappling is the most dominant aspect of this fight. Strong Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

ACJ’s TD points and submission potential make him a valid play, especially when you consider the high number of really heavy favourites. Add him to your lineup.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Megan Anderson -210 vs Felicia Spencer +175

This line was much closer when it opened. Spencer was around the +125 mark and the public has bet Anderson hard. It makes sense. If you compare the 2 girls, Anderson appears to be the key front runner. She is a monster of a woman with dangerous hands. I can’t look past her performance against Holly. Spencer is a far more capable grappler than HH and if she gets this fight horizontal, she can finish. I think she takes Megan down at will and ends this one in an upset. Spencer is part of my Silver section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Spencer joins my Fantasy Lineup as well. The takedowns will be there. The submission finish potential is pretty high. And the price is right. Add her.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Derrick Krantz +700 vs Vicente Luque -1200

We start a long run of No Plays. There is no way we can bet this fight straight I will look at the prop section for sure. Pass otherwise.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I would love to back Luque here but he is so expensive that it compromises the rest of my lineup.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Charles Oliveira -350 vs Nik Lentz +275

We get a rematch of a rematch (ending in an NC). For our purposes, Olveira won both fights by submission. I feel Lentz’s strengths play too well into CO’s superior strengths. A few sites had this fight around the -290 mark, but not anymore. For a night full of heavy favs I am seriously considering a prop bet (you can guess) in my top plays. Possible inclusion in my HBC Golds straight up, but my CBC Golds might see a prop bet instead.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Oliveira is just a little out of our price range. Not much we can do when the prices don’t add up.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Davi Ramos -500 vs Austin Hubbard +380

Another pass with a long hard look at a prop option.

Draft-Kings-Logo

See Oliveira or Luque explanations.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Aspen Ladd -300 vs Sijara Eubanks +240

Ladd is a pretty heavy favourite in a rematch from not that long ago. The first fight was far from a blowout, but it can be argued that Ladd has improved quite a bit since their first meeting. I am looking at Ladd as a possible bet in my HBC Gold plays to augment my other bigger bets. I will also look at the prop situation.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Ladd is the cheapest of the big favs. Her GNP barrages are unreal and the combo of volume and finish will produce points.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Desmond Green -600 vs Charles Jourdain +450

Yeah, this fight is untouchable. Next.

Draft-Kings-Logo

We made our big play with Ladd. Green is too expensive for a decision heavy fighter.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Danny Roberts -250 vs Michel Pereira +200

Roberts was playable at the -200 mark, but he is drifting to that point where we can set him aside and look elsewhere. My first instinct was a straight bet in the Bronze section. Unfortunately, the Brit has enough holes in his game to not want to risk it. I will look at the props for a potential play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Roberts is too expensive to play as a secondary expensive, but not certain enough to finish to consider him as a top expense. Pass.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Michael Trizano +100 vs Grant Dawson -125

This fight was nearly even at the start. I still like Dawson. His heavy wrestling pressure will be a lot for a Trizano to fend off. Dawson was debuting off a massive layoff last time out. He is in a much better spot. If you add in the experience of going a full 3 rounds, he should be in for some sizeable development. I feel Trizano does some things well, but his 2 split decisions don’t provide a lot of confidence he can overcome a takedown-heavy attack. Dawson gets the call in my Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

You can get Dawson with some dog money and that suits me just fine. He will score with takedowns and GNP or a finish or a combo of the 2. Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Patrick Cummins -250 vs Ed Herman +200

Cummins falls into the same category as Roberts. A similar price with a concerning vulnerability. Cummins should dominate this fight with his wrestling, but his chin and Herman’s veteran savvy keep that door open enough to turn this fight south. I might look at a Bronze play or I might just leave it off altogether.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Cummins’ takedowns should produce, but at $8800 I don’t like the return on this investment.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Zak Cummings +130 vs Trevin Giles -160

Giles is the better athlete here and while Cummings is far better than most people give him credit for, I feel like Giles will just do more and do it better. He is the better striker and Cummings is no longer committed to his ground game like he used to be. Giles is a solid play on a card with limited betting options. Silver Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Giles has shown he can finish and while Cummings is a step up, at $8400 he is worth an add. Affordable and a threat to finish. Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Julio Arce -800 vs Julian Erosa +550

Nope, nothing doing here. Clearly an EPU, but nothing to invest straight up.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass here too. Too expensive.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

 

Confidence List

1. Julio Arce -800

2. Aspen Ladd -300

3. Vicente Luque -1200

4. Charles Oliveira -350

5. Rafael dos Anjos -110

====================

6. Davi Ramos -500

7. Desmond Green -600

8. Trevin Giles -160

9. Grant Dawson -125

10. Patrick Cummins -250

11. Antonio Carlos Junior -170

12. Danny Roberts -250

13.Felicia Spencer +175

 

Value Bet List

1. Felicia Spencer +175 

2. Rafael dos Anjos -110

3. Grant Dawson -125

4. Julio Arce to Win by TKO/KO +275

5. Aspen Ladd to Win by TKO/KO +300

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

EPU Candidate(s)

1. Zak Cummings/Trevin Giles

Both guys can finish, but I have Giles winning and Cummings is pretty durable. I will keep this one simple and look for a win by any method.

2. Julio Arce to Win by TKO/KO +275

Erosa’s durability is a major concern and Arce has shown he has the power in his hands to put his opponent down. I have seen this line over the +320 mark and I had expected to see the line sitting less than +200. This is a must play.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
20
35
10 of 28 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
2491538%

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

FPO Candidate

1. Aspen Ladd to Win by TKO/KO +300

Similar to the Arce finish prop, Ladd is getting a much better price to score the stoppage that I expected her to. She had put it on both of her previous opponents in a manner that was difficult to defend. These 2 girls have already fought so we have the formerly tracked rematch prop in our favour. The first bout ended via decision. Look for Ladd to try and make a statement here.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
2719870%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2171433%

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Rafael dos Anjos -110 vs Kevin Lee -110

2. Michael Trizano +100 vs Grant Dawson -125

3. Zak Cummings +130 vs Trevin Giles -160

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
147687946%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
178958353%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
145747151%

 icon-circle  icon-circle  icon-circle 

Prop Bets

Vicente Luque to Win by TKO/KO -125

The big fear here is that Luque finishes him via submission. Krantz has 5 submission losses and 2 more by knockout. I feel like we have seen Luque really commit to his striking and that should produce a knockout finish. If he can put Barberena down, I feel like he can stop almost anyone.

Charles Oliveira to Win by Submission -165

I don’t know if I need much of an explanation here. Oliveira has done it twice and holds the record for most wins by sub in the history of the UFC. At this price and on a card that has a limited number of playable options, this is a must bet.

Davi Ramos to Win by Submission -150

Like I mentioned about, we need to find some function prop bets and this is one of them. I like Ramos to go to his strength and continue to showcase his submission skills. At this price, get it on a card.

Aspen Ladd/Sijara Eubanks

See Betting Scenario Section.

Zak Cummings/Trevin Giles

See Betting Scenario Section.

Julio Arce/Julian Erosa

See Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

%d bloggers like this: