UFN 152: dos Anjos vs Lee Recap- 165-pound future?
With the former Lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos returning to the win column after a pair of losses to the divisions elite, it might be worth time to at least consider a looking a slight divisional realignment. While the UFC appears uninterested in creating another division, I feel the move is warranted. I am not a fan of having both 165 and 170-pound divisions with just 5-pounds between the, so a little more movement might be required.
If the UFC were to legitimately add another division, they might need a slight deviation from the traditional Weight classes. Instead of Welterweight peaking at 170-pounds, I would like to see the UFC bumped GSP’s former domain to 175lbs and put a 165-pound division between Welterweight and Lightweight.
While this move doesn’t appear to be on the horizon, let’s take a look at a few fighters that would benefit from a divisional shakeup.
Rafael Dos Anjos
The former Lightweight Champion simply isn’t big enough to compete with the hulking elite at Welterweight. Both Usman and Covington were able to grind him down and Lee even had some success early. The cut to Lightweight might be too much for the Brazilian, but avoiding the larger wrestling based opponents of the Welterweight division would be ideal.
Kevin Lee
Lee is in physical purgatory. Too big to make Lightweight without draining himself, but a little too short to deal with the length at Welterweight. Lee is a solid wrestler with a reach advantage over most opponents. Unfortunately, his cardio has been his undoing. Either a hard cut to 155 or the issue of carrying too much weight at 170, he tends to slow down in more grueling bouts. The 165-pound class could be the perfect balance for Kevin.
James Vick
Vick is huge for 155-pounds and is still making the weight comfortably. As he gets older, that will change. His chin has been a bit of an issue which could be rectified with a less demanding drop to 165. The speed of the smaller Lightweights has also been an issue for Vick who would still have a size length advantage in a slightly heavier division.
Donald Cerrone
Cerrone is proving to still be one of the best Lightweights around and he did put together a solid run at Welterweight when he first made the move. Cerrone is getting older so this will most likely be his final run at Lightweight once it comes to his conclusion. While he can more than hold his own at 170, the larger framed opponents like Leon Edwards and Darren Till are just too much. Cerrone’s best bet to hold UFC Gold could be in a division that might not materialize until after he has road off into the sunset.
Jorge Masvidal
Masvidal is bigger than most people realize, but he has gone up and down between 155 and 170 throughout his career. He appears set at Welterweight now and is closing on a shot at the strap. The former Strikeforce title challenger is one of the most underrated fighters in the division and by removing the type of opponent that could use a slight physical edge to grind him down- there might not be much left to stop him from hold the 165-pound title.
Conor McGregor
The division needs star power to get it off and rolling and while I am usually not a fan, the Irishman would be a perfect fit to help launch the division. The Lightweight cut is doable for Conor, but a slightly less demanding drop to 165 could offer a nice balance between gains and losses of physical attributes.
How to get it started?
I always love tournaments and similar to the launch of the faltering Flyweight division, a 4-man bracket would be a perfect debut for this title. The opening round could feature RDA and McGregor turning back the clock to a previous engagement that never materialized. The other semi-final would feature a rematch between Masivdal and Cerrone. Lee could meet Vick in an alternate bout.
At first glance, I have RDA and Masvidal heading to the title fight with Kevin Lee grinding his way to a win in the alternate bout. In the finals, two very well-rounded fighters would square off with Masvidal utilizing his sharp boxing and counter wrestling to deal with the pressure based attack of RDA. In the end, a close decision goes to Masvidal along with the newly minted 165-pound title.
Final Thoughts
Overall, I went 9-4 with my 3rd straight main event win. All three of those wins have come since my decision to start breaking down the main event before working on any other fights. We will see if it continues. My HBC bets cashed huge again with over 70 units won, it would appear that the slump has turned into a decent streak with a 42-18 record (70%) over the last 5 events. Let’s keep it rolling!
Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack
Parlays & Single Bets
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Rafael dos Anjos | to WIN | -110 |  |
| + Charles Oliveira | to WIN | -350 | |
| ODDS: | +145 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 19.64u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Grant Dawson | to WIN | -125 | |
| + Aspen Ladd | to WIN | -300 | |
| ODDS: | +140 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 19.2u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Felicia Spencer | to WIN | +175 | |
| ODDS: | +175 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 11u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Antonio Carlos Junior | to WIN | -170 |  |
| + Trevin Giles | to WIN | -160 | |
| ODDS: | +158 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 15.49u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Aspen Ladd | to Win by TKO/KO | +300 | |
| ODDS: | +300 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 16u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Julio Arce | to Win by TKO/KO | +275 | |
| + Vicente Luque | to Win by TKO/KO | -125 | |
| ODDS: | +575 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 20.25u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Rafael dos Anjos | to WIN | -110 | |
| + Trevin Giles | to WIN | -160 | |
| + Grant Dawson | to WIN | -125 | |
| ODDS: | +458 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 16.75u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Charles Oliveira | to Win by Submission | -165 | |
| + Davi Ramos | to Win by Submission | -150 | |
| ODDS: | +168 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 8.03u |
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Rafael dos Anjos | to WIN | -110 | |
| + Charles Oliveira | to Win by Submission | -165 | |
| ODDS: | +207 | ||
| BET: | 10u | ||
| RETURN: | 30.66u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Grant Dawson | to WIN | -125 | |
| + Aspen Ladd | to Win by TKO/KO | +300 | |
| ODDS: | +620 | ||
| BET: | 9u | ||
| RETURN: | 64.8u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Antonio Carlos Junior | to WIN | -170 | |
| + Felicia Spencer | to WIN | +175 | |
| + Trevin Giles | to WIN | -160 | |
| ODDS: | +610 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 42.58u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Julio Arce | to Win by TKO/KO | +275 | |
| + Vicente Luque | to Win by TKO/KO | -125 | |
| + Danny Roberts | to WIN | -250 | |
| + Patrick Cummins | to WIN | -250 | |
| ODDS: | +1223 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 66.15 |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Rafael dos Anjos | to WIN | -110 | |
| + Trevin Giles | to WIN | -160 | |
| + Grant Dawson | to WIN | -125 | |
| + Davi Ramos | to Win by Submission | -150 | |
| ODDS: | +1296 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 55.84u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Charles Oliveira | to Win by Submission | -165 | |
| + Julio Arce | to Win by TKO/KO | +275 | |
| + Vicente Luque | to Win by TKO/KO | -125 | |
| + Aspen Ladd | to Win by TKO/KO | +300 | |
| ODDS: | +4236 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 173.45u |
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
| + Rafael dos Anjos | $8200 | |
| + Felicia Spencer | $7700 | |
| + Aspen Ladd | $9100 | |
| + Grant Dawson | $7900 | |
| + Trevin Giles | $8400 | |
| + Antonio Carlos Junior | $8700 | |
Spares
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| + | |
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Betting Breakdowns
Rafael dos Anjos -110 vs Kevin Lee -110
The line has stayed in this range, but both fighters have spent time as the fav and you can find each man still there depending on the site. I feel the perception of RDA has been impacted by his losses to Usman and Covington. Those guys are elite. RDA was at the top at LW, not there at WW, but close. I don’t feel Lee is in their league and RDA should be able to defend the takedowns, outwork him and pull away. I had RDA closer to -160. I will take him as a Gold Play.
I also have RDA in my lineup. He is affordable and has shown he can produce both finishes and big volume numbers over a 5-round fight. RDA gets it done, pulling away as Lee fades. Add him.
Antonio Carlos Junior -170 vs Ian Heinisch +140
Heinisch was a bigger dog at the open and ACJ was floating around the -225 mark on some sites. The line has improved for us, but I have heard a lot of support for Heinisch and he does have a solid path to victory here. If he can stay vertical, for ACJ to work for everything he has the style to both exhaust him and finish him. I wasn’t impressed with IH’s TDD vs Ferreria. I felt he gave up too many TDs and while he got back to his feet, I feel ACJ will make him pay. ACJ’s grappling is the most dominant aspect of this fight. Strong Silver play.
ACJ’s TD points and submission potential make him a valid play, especially when you consider the high number of really heavy favourites. Add him to your lineup.
Megan Anderson -210 vs Felicia Spencer +175
This line was much closer when it opened. Spencer was around the +125 mark and the public has bet Anderson hard. It makes sense. If you compare the 2 girls, Anderson appears to be the key front runner. She is a monster of a woman with dangerous hands. I can’t look past her performance against Holly. Spencer is a far more capable grappler than HH and if she gets this fight horizontal, she can finish. I think she takes Megan down at will and ends this one in an upset. Spencer is part of my Silver section.
Spencer joins my Fantasy Lineup as well. The takedowns will be there. The submission finish potential is pretty high. And the price is right. Add her.
Derrick Krantz +700 vs Vicente Luque -1200
We start a long run of No Plays. There is no way we can bet this fight straight I will look at the prop section for sure. Pass otherwise.
I would love to back Luque here but he is so expensive that it compromises the rest of my lineup.
Charles Oliveira -350 vs Nik Lentz +275
We get a rematch of a rematch (ending in an NC). For our purposes, Olveira won both fights by submission. I feel Lentz’s strengths play too well into CO’s superior strengths. A few sites had this fight around the -290 mark, but not anymore. For a night full of heavy favs I am seriously considering a prop bet (you can guess) in my top plays. Possible inclusion in my HBC Golds straight up, but my CBC Golds might see a prop bet instead.
Oliveira is just a little out of our price range. Not much we can do when the prices don’t add up.
Davi Ramos -500 vs Austin Hubbard +380
Another pass with a long hard look at a prop option.
See Oliveira or Luque explanations.
Aspen Ladd -300 vs Sijara Eubanks +240
Ladd is a pretty heavy favourite in a rematch from not that long ago. The first fight was far from a blowout, but it can be argued that Ladd has improved quite a bit since their first meeting. I am looking at Ladd as a possible bet in my HBC Gold plays to augment my other bigger bets. I will also look at the prop situation.
Ladd is the cheapest of the big favs. Her GNP barrages are unreal and the combo of volume and finish will produce points.
Desmond Green -600 vs Charles Jourdain +450
Yeah, this fight is untouchable. Next.
We made our big play with Ladd. Green is too expensive for a decision heavy fighter.
Danny Roberts -250 vs Michel Pereira +200
Roberts was playable at the -200 mark, but he is drifting to that point where we can set him aside and look elsewhere. My first instinct was a straight bet in the Bronze section. Unfortunately, the Brit has enough holes in his game to not want to risk it. I will look at the props for a potential play.
Roberts is too expensive to play as a secondary expensive, but not certain enough to finish to consider him as a top expense. Pass.
Michael Trizano +100 vs Grant Dawson -125
This fight was nearly even at the start. I still like Dawson. His heavy wrestling pressure will be a lot for a Trizano to fend off. Dawson was debuting off a massive layoff last time out. He is in a much better spot. If you add in the experience of going a full 3 rounds, he should be in for some sizeable development. I feel Trizano does some things well, but his 2 split decisions don’t provide a lot of confidence he can overcome a takedown-heavy attack. Dawson gets the call in my Gold play.
You can get Dawson with some dog money and that suits me just fine. He will score with takedowns and GNP or a finish or a combo of the 2. Add him.
Patrick Cummins -250 vs Ed Herman +200
Cummins falls into the same category as Roberts. A similar price with a concerning vulnerability. Cummins should dominate this fight with his wrestling, but his chin and Herman’s veteran savvy keep that door open enough to turn this fight south. I might look at a Bronze play or I might just leave it off altogether.
Cummins’ takedowns should produce, but at $8800 I don’t like the return on this investment.
Zak Cummings +130 vs Trevin Giles -160
Giles is the better athlete here and while Cummings is far better than most people give him credit for, I feel like Giles will just do more and do it better. He is the better striker and Cummings is no longer committed to his ground game like he used to be. Giles is a solid play on a card with limited betting options. Silver Play.
Giles has shown he can finish and while Cummings is a step up, at $8400 he is worth an add. Affordable and a threat to finish. Add him.
Julio Arce -800 vs Julian Erosa +550
Nope, nothing doing here. Clearly an EPU, but nothing to invest straight up.
I will pass here too. Too expensive.
Confidence List
1. Julio Arce -800
2. Aspen Ladd -300
3. Vicente Luque -1200
4. Charles Oliveira -350
5. Rafael dos Anjos -110
====================
6. Davi Ramos -500
7. Desmond Green -600
8. Trevin Giles -160
9. Grant Dawson -125
10. Patrick Cummins -250
11. Antonio Carlos Junior -170
12. Danny Roberts -250
13.Felicia Spencer +175
Value Bet List
1. Felicia Spencer +175
2. Rafael dos Anjos -110
3. Grant Dawson -125
4. Julio Arce to Win by TKO/KO +275
5. Aspen Ladd to Win by TKO/KO +300
Counter Bets
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
C. Daniel Cormier
#1 Jon Jones
EPU Candidate(s)
1. Zak Cummings/Trevin Giles
Both guys can finish, but I have Giles winning and Cummings is pretty durable. I will keep this one simple and look for a win by any method.
2. Julio Arce to Win by TKO/KO +275
Erosa’s durability is a major concern and Arce has shown he has the power in his hands to put his opponent down. I have seen this line over the +320 mark and I had expected to see the line sitting less than +200. This is a must play.
| EPU | ||||
| 47 | 24 | 23 | 51% | |
| 55 | 31 | 24 | 56% | |
| 47 | 20 | 27 | 43% | |
| 42 | 25 | 17 | 60% | |
| 29 | 11 | 18 | 38% | |
FPO Candidate
1. Aspen Ladd to Win by TKO/KO +300
Similar to the Arce finish prop, Ladd is getting a much better price to score the stoppage that I expected her to. She had put it on both of her previous opponents in a manner that was difficult to defend. These 2 girls have already fought so we have the formerly tracked rematch prop in our favour. The first bout ended via decision. Look for Ladd to try and make a statement here.
| Final Prelim | ||||
| 46 | ||||
| 36 | 16 | 20 | 44% | |
| 39 | 26 | 13 | 67% | |
| 34 | 25 | 9 | 74% | |
| 33 | 22 | 11 | 67% | |
| 34 | 21 | 13 | 62% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 35 | 17 | 18 | 49% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 31 | 13 | 18 | 42% | |
| 27 | 9 | 18 | 33% |
HEF Candidate(s)
1. Rafael dos Anjos -110 vs Kevin Lee -110
2. Michael Trizano +100 vs Grant Dawson -125
3. Zak Cummings +130 vs Trevin Giles -160
| HEFs | ||||
| 177 | 93 | 84 | 53% | |
| 212 | 106 | 106 | 50% | |
| 179 | 110 | 69 | 61% | |
| 192 | 100 | 92 | 52% | |
| 196 | 93 | 103 | 47% | |
| 181 | 97 | 84 | 54% | |
| 212 | 108 | 104 | 51% | |
| 179 | 87 | 92 | 49% | |
| 192 | 95 | 97 | 49% | |
| 191 | 96 | 95 | 50% |
Prop Bets
Vicente Luque to Win by TKO/KO -125
The big fear here is that Luque finishes him via submission. Krantz has 5 submission losses and 2 more by knockout. I feel like we have seen Luque really commit to his striking and that should produce a knockout finish. If he can put Barberena down, I feel like he can stop almost anyone.
Charles Oliveira to Win by Submission -165
I don’t know if I need much of an explanation here. Oliveira has done it twice and holds the record for most wins by sub in the history of the UFC. At this price and on a card that has a limited number of playable options, this is a must bet.
Davi Ramos to Win by Submission -150
Like I mentioned about, we need to find some function prop bets and this is one of them. I like Ramos to go to his strength and continue to showcase his submission skills. At this price, get it on a card.
Aspen Ladd/Sijara Eubanks
See Betting Scenario Section.
Zak Cummings/Trevin GilesSee Betting Scenario Section.
Julio Arce/Julian Erosa
See Betting Scenario Section.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.