• in Latest, Main Card, Mixed Martial Arts, Preliminary Fights, Previous Posts, UFC

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

Silver Plays

Bronze Plays

Wildcard Plays

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

Silver Plays

Bronze Plays

Wildcard Plays

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

Spares

Betting Breakdowns

Souza is fighting to hold onto his spot in line for a title shot. Hermansson is jumping on an opportunity to take another step up in competition. We aren’t getting the full value here as Souza was around the -175 mark when he opened, but I still think we are getting a great deal. Unless Jack’s ground game has hit god-mode he loses the biggest weapon in his arsenal. He is also vulnerable on the mat and Souza will exploit this. I like Souza in my Gold play.

Souza is a little too expensive for what we can afford. I think he gets the finish, but we would have to sacrifice elsewhere. Pass.

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There is no way we can play this one as Hardy is still a work in progress. This is an easy pass.

I took a long look at getting him into my lineup, but he is just too costly. Pass.

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Perry is a live dog here, but honestly, he needs a stoppage or its a bust. Oliveira is the longer, more diverse, and more active striker. He is also more likely to hit the floor with his mat game. The line has stayed relatively stagnant. I would have liked to taken a shot at a Silver play if Oliveira came in somewhere around the -140 range, but I knocked him down to a strong Bronze bet.

No play here, AO is just slightly out of our price range.

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This should be a great fight. It could really go either way and the line reflects it. This bout opened with Cutelaba around the -125 to -130 area, so this is a nice improvement. If Glover gets him down and can get to his back, that is huge. Conversely, Ion has the ability to crack his chin and do some serious damage if they start trading. This is a big step up for IC. I like him here and will most likely play him in my Bronze section as a single bet.

Ion is a slight fantasy favourite at $8300. He is a finisher through and through which is what we want. If he beats Glover it is probably by knockout. Add him.

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Lineker’s value has climbed significantly from the open. He started close to -240 and has climbed ever since. We’ve lost some value on Sandhagen who was around +180, but I still like the line. JL was a little slow out of the gate the last time he returned from a long layoff. He is now coming back from a longer break against a more capable opponent. Sandhagen throws a lot of movement and a lot of technique. That is going to be problematic for Lineker. Sandhagen will push him early and keep mixing it up. A decision is possible or even a stoppage. Great spot for a dog. Gold Play.

At $7700, Sandhagen is cheap and a finisher. Even without a finish, his volume is sizeable and will score some points. Triple digits in all 3 UFC bouts. Add him.

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Nope. UFC debutant versus a sophomore. I will look at a prop, but that is it.

Nothing doing here either, despite the fact that RR gets a finish here.

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This line was much nicer not that long along. Sato at -165 or at least sub -185 was pretty darn solid. I just can’t back Saunders against anyone with punching power. His chin and general durability are just gone. It’s too bad. Sato is still playable at the exterior of your bets. He will land something and score the finish here. Bronze Play.

Sato is an option considering his finishing skills and Saunder’s shaky chin. Unfortunately, at $9000 he is just too expensive. Pass.

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Sakai comes in as a nicely playable favourite. Some sites have him in the high -130 range. I still like him here. In fact, I had him closer to the -200. AA has had openings to win recent fights and simply couldn’t execute. Those opportunities won’t be there against Sakai. He is more active, more impactful, and more durable. He might even be quicker. I like Sakai to make a big showing here with a finish. Gold Play for Augusto.

Not surprisingly, at $8400 we are playing Sakai in our lineup, He recorded 111 significant strikes in his debut and scored a total of 109 points. He could put up similar numbers without a finish. Add him.

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The former UFC champion opened as a respectable -140 favourite over the Invicta champ. We are now getting a solid double up on our investment. The movement is coming from the absolute beating that Suarez put on Esparza. Jandiroba has looked good, but this is a short notice step up in competition for her UFC debut. That is a lot. Similar to the Calvillo fight, Carla limits the ground exchanges and takes this one on the feet. Gold Play for Cookie Monster.

Carla has never been a massive point producer, usually hitting the 80 point mark at her best. I would take that again as she fits in our lineup nicely based on the cash that is still available.

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Burns is a tall order for a short notice debut. The guys has heavy hands and super dangerous grappling. You need to be spot on to get past this guy. Davis could catch him, but I honestly don’t see him landing a one-off finisher. My Gold section already has enough plays, but pairing GB with Court in my Silver play is a nice option.

Burns is too expensive, but he has great finishing potential. Hard to pass up, but it comes down to cash flow.

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Miller’s return rages from -155 to -135 on some sites. He has faced and lost to elite talent and I don’t see Gonzalez fitting that category. I would put him in the same spot as Alex White when he faced Miller. For Miller to win he needs to be on with his striking and blend in his mat game. Gonzo is just too vulnerable on the floor and his chin isn’t great. Miller hurts him or takes him down, leading to a sub. Solid Silver play.

The combo of Miller’s sub-skills and Gonzo’s history of kill or be killed coupled with an affordable price makes Miller a playable fantasy option. Add him.

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Clearly, nothing doing here. I will look at a prop.

To expensive. Hill will score with volume, but not worth it for this price.

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We are getting a decent return here with several sites moving McGee closer to -185. Lima extended his stay with the stoppage win over Laprise. He wasn’t looking that good up until then. I like McGee to outwork him and score takedowns when needed. Solid Silver play for Court against a guy that has struggled to do much of anything in the UFC.

Court’s volume and takedowns will produce and the lack of durability on Dhiego’s part makes him a playable option. Add him.

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Confidence List

1. Angela Hill -600

2. Ronaldo Souza -210

3. Roosevelt Roberts -400

4. Greg Hardy -334

5. Court McGee -170

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6. Augusto Sakai -150

7.Carla Esparza +100

8. Gilbert Burns -275

9. Jim Miller -150

10. Cory Sandhagen +125

11. Takashi Sato -210

12. Alex Oliveira -175

13. Ion Cutelaba +100

Value Bet List

1. Carla Esparza +100

2. Cory Sandhagen +125

3. Ion Cutelaba +100

4. Augusto Sakai -150

5. Jim Miller -150

Counter Bets

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Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

UFC 214: Cormier vs Jones 2
C. Daniel Cormier		CTRY.		#1 Jon Jones
	19-1	REC	22-1
	4W	STREAK	13W
	+230	ODDS	-245
	205	WEIGHT	205
	5'11"	HEIGHT	6'4"
	72.5"	REACH	84.5"
	38	AGE	30
COUNTDOWN TO UFC 214

EPU Candidate(s)

1. Angela Hill/Jodie Esquibel

I don’t expect a finish and I don’t feel like making a bet on Hill by Decision prop at that return. Pass.

2. Court McGee to Win by TKO/KO +575

Lima is simply not able to take big shots. Does Court pack enough pop to get him out of there? Possibly. It could be with volume. It could be with a switch kick to put him down. Or just a sequence of well-timed strikes while McGee has Lima backing up. At +575, dig in.

FPO Candidate

1. Ben Saunders/Takashi Sato

I don’t think this one goes the distance, but we have seen fights with expected finishes go the full 15 in this slot. Saunders could sub him. Sato could sleep him. We could also get a grinding, controversial decision.

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Glover Teixeira -125 vs Ion Cutelaba +100

2. John Lineker-150 vs Cory Sandhagen +125

3. Andrei Arlovski +125 vs Augusto Sakai -150

4. Carla Esparza +100 vs Virna Jandiroba -125

5. Jim Miller -150 vs Jason Gonzalez +125

Prop Bets

We have seen Hermansson get taken down. We have seen him make positional mistakes on the mat. And we have seen him rely heavily on his ground game to win fights. All mistakes against Jacare. Getting plus money for a Souza sub is a straight steal.

Ion hits hard and finished nearly every opponent he has defeated. Glover’s chin is not what it used to be and if he can’t or won’t take the fight to the floor he will be vulnerable to getting cracked.

As tempting as it was to consider Cory by TKO/KO, I want to keep his submission skills in play. Lineker is no easy out, but the submission avenue could be easier than finishing a guy that has never been stopped by knockout. Look for the pace of Sandhagen to be the key.

I picked RR by sub, but I think he could very well scoop up the TKO/KO finish here. Gifford does his best work on the mat and Roberts might look to avoid that altogether and exploit his edge on the feet. Whether it is via standing or top position ground and pound, I like the return on this.

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Burns has decent stopping power and we have seen Davis hurt in fights. I would not be shocked to see Burns score a takedown and get the sub, but at this return, it is worth the bet.

Miller is a capable submission fighter and if he gets in a spot to finish, he will. Gonzalez has never gone the distance in defeat (or victory). Fusing together these 2 scenarios makes the +245 return a solid play.

See the Betting Scenario Section.

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Scott Johnson

Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.