UFN 150 Premium Bet Pack

UFN 150 Premium Bet Pack

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

 

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Carla Esparza  to WIN +100
+ Ronaldo Souza  to WIN -210
ODDS: +195
BET: 8u
RETURN: 23.62u

 

BET #2
+ Augusto Sakai  to WIN -150
+ Cory Sandhagen  to WIN +125
ODDS: 7u
BET: +275
RETURN: 26.25u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Jim Miller  to WIN -150
+ Court McGee  to WIN -170
ODDS: +165
BET: 5u
RETURN: 13.24u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Ion Cutelaba  to WIN +100
ODDS: +100
BET: 4u
RETURN: 8u

 

BET #2
+ Takashi Sato  to WIN -210
+ Alex Oliveira  to WIN -175
ODDS: +132
BET: 3u
RETURN: 6.96u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Ronaldo Souza  to Win by Submission +134
ODDS: +134
BET: 3u
RETURN: 7.02u

 

BET #2
+ Ion Cutelaba  to Win by TKO/KO +175
+ Jim Miller  to Win by Submission +245
ODDS: +849
BET: 3u
RETURN: 28.46u

BET #3
+ Gilbert Burns to Win by TKO/KO +406
ODDS: +406
BET: 4u
RETURN: 20.24u

BET #4
+ Court McGee to Win by TKO/KO +575
ODDS: +575
BET: 4u
RETURN: 27u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Carla Esparza  to WIN +100
+ Ronaldo Souza  to WIN -210
+ Augusto Sakai  to WIN -150
ODDS: +392
BET: 8u
RETURN: 39.37u

BET #2
+ Augusto Sakai  to WIN -150
+ Cory Sandhagen  to WIN +125
+ Carla Esparza  to WIN +100
ODDS: +650
BET: 8u
RETURN: 60u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Jim Miller  to WIN -150
+ Court McGee  to WIN -170
+ Gilbert Burns to WIN -275
ODDS: +261
BET: 6u
RETURN: 21.66u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Takashi Sato  to WIN -210
+ Alex Oliveira  to WIN -175
+ Ion Cutelaba 
to WIN +100
ODDS: +364
BET: 4u
RETURN: 18.56u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Ion Cutelaba  to Win by TKO/KO +175
+ Jim Miller  to Win by Submission +245
+ Ronaldo Souza  to Win by Submission +134
ODDS: +2120
BET: 4u
RETURN: 88.8u

BET #2
+ Gilbert Burns to Win by TKO/KO +406
+ Cory Sandhagen  to Win inside the Distance +285
ODDS: +1848
BET: 4u
RETURN: 77.92u

BET #3
+ Court McGee to Win by TKO/KO +575
+ Roosevelt Roberts  to Win by TKO/KO +400
ODDS: +3275
BET: 4u
RETURN: 135u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Ion Cutelaba $8300
+ Cory Sandhagen $7700
+ Augusto Sakai $8400
+ Jim Miller $8600
+ Carla Esparza $8200
+ Court McGee $8700

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Ronaldo Souza -210 vs Jack Hermansson +175

Souza is fighting to hold onto his spot in line for a title shot. Hermansson is jumping on an opportunity to take another step up in competition. We aren’t getting the full value here as Souza was around the -175 mark when he opened, but I still think we are getting a great deal. Unless Jack’s ground game has hit god-mode he loses the biggest weapon in his arsenal. He is also vulnerable on the mat and Souza will exploit this. I like Souza in my Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Souza is a little too expensive for what we can afford. I think he gets the finish, but we would have to sacrifice elsewhere. Pass.

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Greg Hardy -334 vs Dmitrii Smoliakov +250

There is no way we can play this one as Hardy is still a work in progress. This is an easy pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I took a long look at getting him into my lineup, but he is just too costly. Pass.

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Alex Oliveira -175 vs Mike Perry +150

Perry is a live dog here, but honestly, he needs a stoppage or its a bust. Oliveira is the longer, more diverse, and more active striker. He is also more likely to hit the floor with his mat game. The line has stayed relatively stagnant. I would have liked to taken a shot at a Silver play if Oliveira came in somewhere around the -140 range, but I knocked him down to a strong Bronze bet.

Draft-Kings-Logo

No play here, AO is just slightly out of our price range.

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Glover Teixeira -125 vs Ion Cutelaba +100

This should be a great fight. It could really go either way and the line reflects it. This bout opened with Cutelaba around the -125 to -130 area, so this is a nice improvement. If Glover gets him down and can get to his back, that is huge. Conversely, Ion has the ability to crack his chin and do some serious damage if they start trading. This is a big step up for IC. I like him here and will most likely play him in my Bronze section as a single bet.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Ion is a slight fantasy favourite at $8300. He is a finisher through and through which is what we want. If he beats Glover it is probably by knockout. Add him.

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John Lineker-150 vs Cory Sandhagen +125

Lineker’s value has climbed significantly from the open. He started close to -240 and has climbed ever since. We’ve lost some value on Sandhagen who was around +180, but I still like the line. JL was a little slow out of the gate the last time he returned from a long layoff. He is now coming back from a longer break against a more capable opponent. Sandhagen throws a lot of movement and a lot of technique. That is going to be problematic for Lineker. Sandhagen will push him early and keep mixing it up. A decision is possible or even a stoppage. Great spot for a dog. Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

At $7700, Sandhagen is cheap and a finisher. Even without a finish, his volume is sizeable and will score some points. Triple digits in all 3 UFC bouts. Add him.

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Roosevelt Roberts -400 vs Thomas Gifford +300

Nope. UFC debutant versus a sophomore. I will look at a prop, but that is it.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing doing here either, despite the fact that RR gets a finish here.

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Ben Saunders +175 vs Takashi Sato -210

This line was much nicer not that long along. Sato at -165 or at least sub -185 was pretty darn solid. I just can’t back Saunders against anyone with punching power. His chin and general durability are just gone. It’s too bad. Sato is still playable at the exterior of your bets. He will land something and score the finish here. Bronze Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Sato is an option considering his finishing skills and Saunder’s shaky chin. Unfortunately, at $9000 he is just too expensive. Pass.

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Andrei Arlovski +125 vs Augusto Sakai -150

Sakai comes in as a nicely playable favourite. Some sites have him in the high -130 range. I still like him here. In fact, I had him closer to the -200. AA has had openings to win recent fights and simply couldn’t execute. Those opportunities won’t be there against Sakai. He is more active, more impactful, and more durable. He might even be quicker. I like Sakai to make a big showing here with a finish. Gold Play for Augusto.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Not surprisingly, at $8400 we are playing Sakai in our lineup, He recorded 111 significant strikes in his debut and scored a total of 109 points. He could put up similar numbers without a finish. Add him.

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Carla Esparza +100 vs Virna Jandiroba -125

The former UFC champion opened as a respectable -140 favourite over the Invicta champ. We are now getting a solid double up on our investment. The movement is coming from the absolute beating that Suarez put on Esparza. Jandiroba has looked good, but this is a short notice step up in competition for her UFC debut. That is a lot. Similar to the Calvillo fight, Carla limits the ground exchanges and takes this one on the feet. Gold Play for Cookie Monster.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Carla has never been a massive point producer, usually hitting the 80 point mark at her best. I would take that again as she fits in our lineup nicely based on the cash that is still available.

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Gilbert Burns -275 vs Mike Davis +225

Burns is a tall order for a short notice debut. The guys has heavy hands and super dangerous grappling. You need to be spot on to get past this guy. Davis could catch him, but I honestly don’t see him landing a one-off finisher. My Gold section already has enough plays, but pairing GB with Court in my Silver play is a nice option.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Burns is too expensive, but he has great finishing potential. Hard to pass up, but it comes down to cash flow.

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Jim Miller -150 vs Jason Gonzalez +125

Miller’s return rages from -155 to -135 on some sites. He has faced and lost to elite talent and I don’t see Gonzalez fitting that category. I would put him in the same spot as Alex White when he faced Miller. For Miller to win he needs to be on with his striking and blend in his mat game. Gonzo is just too vulnerable on the floor and his chin isn’t great. Miller hurts him or takes him down, leading to a sub. Solid Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

The combo of Miller’s sub-skills and Gonzo’s history of kill or be killed coupled with an affordable price makes Miller a playable fantasy option. Add him.

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Angela Hill -600 vs Jodie Esquibel +450

Clearly, nothing doing here. I will look at a prop.

Draft-Kings-Logo

To expensive. Hill will score with volume, but not worth it for this price.

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Court McGee -170 vs Dhiego Lima +140

We are getting a decent return here with several sites moving McGee closer to -185. Lima extended his stay with the stoppage win over Laprise. He wasn’t looking that good up until then. I like McGee to outwork him and score takedowns when needed. Solid Silver play for Court against a guy that has struggled to do much of anything in the UFC.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Court’s volume and takedowns will produce and the lack of durability on Dhiego’s part makes him a playable option. Add him.

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Confidence List

1. Angela Hill -600

2. Ronaldo Souza -210

3. Roosevelt Roberts -400

4. Greg Hardy -334

5. Court McGee -170

====================

6. Augusto Sakai -150

7.Carla Esparza +100

8. Gilbert Burns -275

9. Jim Miller -150

10. Cory Sandhagen +125

11. Takashi Sato -210

12. Alex Oliveira -175

13. Ion Cutelaba +100

 

Value Bet List

1. Carla Esparza +100

2. Cory Sandhagen +125

3. Ion Cutelaba +100

4. Augusto Sakai -150

5. Jim Miller -150

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

EPU Candidate(s)

1. Angela Hill/Jodie Esquibel

I don’t expect a finish and I don’t feel like making a bet on Hill by Decision prop at that return. Pass.

2. Court McGee to Win by TKO/KO +575

Lima is simply not able to take big shots. Does Court pack enough pop to get him out of there? Possibly. It could be with volume. It could be with a switch kick to put him down. Or just a sequence of well-timed strikes while McGee has Lima backing up. At +575, dig in.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
11
16
19
5 of 18 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
1981142%

FPO Candidate

1. Ben Saunders/Takashi Sato

I don’t think this one goes the distance, but we have seen fights with expected finishes go the full 15 in this slot. Saunders could sub him. Sato could sleep him. We could also get a grinding, controversial decision.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
1711665%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
134931%

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Glover Teixeira -125 vs Ion Cutelaba +100

2. John Lineker-150 vs Cory Sandhagen +125

3. Andrei Arlovski +125 vs Augusto Sakai -150

4. Carla Esparza +100 vs Virna Jandiroba -125

5. Jim Miller -150 vs Jason Gonzalez +125

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
89434648%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
178958353%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
89424747%

 

Prop Bets

Ronaldo Souza to Win by Submission +134

We have seen Hermansson get taken down. We have seen him make positional mistakes on the mat. And we have seen him rely heavily on his ground game to win fights. All mistakes against Jacare. Getting plus money for a Souza sub is a straight steal.

Ion Cutelaba to Win by TKO/KO +175

Ion hits hard and finished nearly every opponent he has defeated. Glover’s chin is not what it used to be and if he can’t or won’t take the fight to the floor he will be vulnerable to getting cracked.

Cory Sandhagen to Win inside the Distance +285

As tempting as it was to consider Cory by TKO/KO, I want to keep his submission skills in play. Lineker is no easy out, but the submission avenue could be easier than finishing a guy that has never been stopped by knockout. Look for the pace of Sandhagen to be the key.

Roosevelt Roberts to Win by TKO/KO +400

I picked RR by sub, but I think he could very well scoop up the TKO/KO finish here. Gifford does his best work on the mat and Roberts might look to avoid that altogether and exploit his edge on the feet. Whether it is via standing or top position ground and pound, I like the return on this.

Ben Saunders/Takashi Sato

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Gilbert Burns to Win by TKO/KO +406

Burns has decent stopping power and we have seen Davis hurt in fights. I would not be shocked to see Burns score a takedown and get the sub, but at this return, it is worth the bet.

Jim Miller to Win by Submission +245

Miller is a capable submission fighter and if he gets in a spot to finish, he will. Gonzalez has never gone the distance in defeat (or victory). Fusing together these 2 scenarios makes the +245 return a solid play.

Angela Hill/Jodie Esquibel

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Court McGee/Dhiego Lima

See the Betting Scenario Section.