UFN 149 Premium Bet Pack

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Marcin Tybura  to WIN -155
+ Alistair Overeem  to WIN -235
ODDS: +135
BET: 8u
RETURN: 18.76u

 

BET #2
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk  to WIN -210
+ Sergei Pavlovich  to WIN -275
ODDS: +101
BET: 6u
RETURN: 12.08

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Keita Nakamura  to WIN -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 5u
RETURN: 9.55u

 

BET #2
+ Krzystof Jotko  to WIN -188
+ Alexander Yakovlev  to WIN -150
ODDS: +155
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12.77u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Devin Clark  to WIN +155
ODDS: +155
BET: 3u
RETURN: 7.65u

 

BET #2
+ Magomed Mustafaev  to WIN +100
ODDS: +100
BET: 3u
RETURN: 6u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Sergei Pavlovich  to WIN by Decision +333
ODDS: +333
BET: 3u
RETURN: 12.99u

 

BET #2
+ Antonina Shevchenko to WIN by Decision -129
+ Krzystof Jotko to WIN by Decision +222
ODDS: +472
BET: 3u
RETURN: 17.15u

 

BET #3
+ Marcin Tybura to WIN by Decision +222
ODDS: +222
BET: 3u
RETURN: 9.66u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Marcin Tybura  to WIN -155
+ Alistair Overeem  to WIN -235
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk   to WIN -210
ODDS: +246
BET: 9u
RETURN: 31.16u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Krzystof Jotko  to WIN -188
+ Alexander Yakovlev  to WIN -150
+ Keita Nakamura  to WIN -110
ODDS: +387
BET: 7u
RETURN: 34.12u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Devin Clark  to WIN +155
+ Magomed Mustafaev  to WIN +100
+ Antonina Shevchenko to WIN by Decision -129
ODDS: +805
BET: 6u
RETURN: 54.32u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Sergei Pavlovich  to WIN by Decision +333
+ Antigulov/Oleksiejczuk  Under 1.5 -122
ODDS: +688
BET: 5u
RETURN: 39.4

 

BET #2
+ Movsar Evloev to WIN by Sub +450
+ Krzystof Jotko to WIN by Decision +222
+ Marcin Tybura to WIN by Decision +222
ODDS: +5603
BET: 4u
RETURN: 228.1u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Devin Clark $7500
+ Keita Nakamura $8200
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk $8800
+ Magomed Mustafaev $8500
+ Alexander Yakolev $8300
+ Marcin Tybura $8400

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Alistair Overeem -235 vs Aleksei Oleinik +200

Oleinik routinely defies the oddsmakers and predictors alike. His ability to find the sub and pull off the upset is impressive. Can he do it here? The line hasn’t moved much, with Overeem sitting around the -245/-250 range at the open and he has trended down just a bit. Unless Aleksei can catch Overeem on the chin or grab a scramble TD, he is going to struggle to get him to the floor. Overeem is too big and strong to be forced down and he is the better striker by a wide margin. I had this line closer to -320. I like Overeem in my Gold section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I had Overeem in my lineup originally, but he was too expensive for what was available to me. I am not thrilled about my DK lineup, but I will pass on the Reem.

Islam Makhachev -350 vs Arman Tsarukyan +275

This should be a good scrap here and potentially much closer than the line indicates. Pass for me.

Draft-Kings-Logo

At $9400, Mak is way too pricey for what we can do here. Pass as well.

Sergei Pavlovich -275 vs Marcelo Golm +225

Sergei had some hype on him in his debut and I grabbed Overeem at the right time. I like Pavlovich here, but it also comes down to the struggles of Golm beyond round 1. The travel factor also plays again Golm here. SP opened around -300 and has steadily improved and some Books have him as low as -240 which is a nice line. I still think he is worth a look when combined with another favourite. I am looking at pairing Pav with Overeem this time around in my Gold Section of the HBC. He might be a pass in my CBC.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Pavlovich is costly at $9200, best to look elsewhere.

Ivan Shtyrko -175 vs Devin Clark +150

There is so much uncertainty around Shtyrko. He is massive and normally fights at HW. By massive, I mean from a muscled perspective. That normally doesn’t work well in the modern UFC- but it still could get him a win. Clark needs to be mindful of getting clipped, but he is in a good spot here to pull off the upset. The line has stayed fairly constant which is fine with me. I can’t wait to get a good look at Shtyrko, but Clark is a Bronze bet for me.

Draft-Kings-Logo

With so many big favs, I like Clark in my lineup. He has power, could get a finish with a big shot or through exhaustion and he helps the budget. Add him.

Roxanne Modafferi +275 vs Antonina Shevchenko -350

I might look at a prop bet here, but Shev is too heavy a favourite and still a little untested to be worth laying this much chalk on. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Roxy is not easy to get out of there. I will skip AS here as well.

Krzystof Jotko -188 vs Alen Amedovski +160

This fight opened much closer and Jotko has been bet down to -180 and lower. He has struggled against quality competition, but he is getting a step back. We don’t know a lot about Amedovski, but he does have a lot of red flags: early finishes, minimal experience, lower level competition- he is fading material. Jotko is a fighter we do know a lot about. If he gets by round 1, he should be in good shape. I like him to anchor my Silver plays.

Draft-Kings-Logo

What makes Jotko effective, also makes him unappealing here. He is a grinder with a decision heavy record. Pass.

Movsar Evloev -295 vs Seung Woo Choi +310

I am not interested in investing in this bout either. I might grab a prop bet if the number is right, but too much uncertainty with a big line like this. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Evloev has finish potential, but he is expensive. I will pass

Sultan Aliev -110 vs Keita Nakamura -110

Nakamura is coming in as an injury replacement, but he is a veteran which should help him to prep and not be impacted by that scenario. The line has stayed relatively the same for most of the week which is fine with me. I see Nak as the more durable fighter and the superior striker. He is also a capable grappler. Aliev needs to have his top control on point from start to finish to get the win here. He can. but Nak has more avenues to win this one. Silver Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Again, not a huge fan of my Fantasy team, but K-Taro is on board. He won’t score well without a finish, but I going to stick with him here. He has better boxing and a good submission game if he can find his way to Aliev’s back. Add him.

Alexander Yakovlev -150 vs Alex da Silva +125

This line varies a bit from site to site, with Yakovlev anywhere from -135 to -180. We have him in the middle. I like this line on a massive LW fighting at home on a long layoff against a debuting fighter on the road. Da Silva struggled with his opponent’s top control in his only loss and AY can replicate that. He is a tough out and if this fight is close I like the guy at home to get the nod. Yaks takes it. Silver Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I think Yaks can grind this one out with takedowns and top control. Again, I don’t feel like there are a lot of affordable options out there, but I have the big Russian in my lineup.

Marcin Tybura -155 vs Shamil Abdurakhimov +130

Tybura was closer to -185 at the open and has steadily improved in value since. I think he has edges in every category here; cardio, volume, grappling, clinch, striking. They might be slight, but together they will add up here. Abdurakhimov is just so passive that he opens himself to get outworked even with a pedestrian work rate. I like Marcin as one of my top plays- Gold it is!

Draft-Kings-Logo

I don’t know if he can get the finish, but I could see Tybura scooping up some takedowns and if he can land one of those big head kicks anything could happen. Add him.

Gadzhimurad Antigulov +175 vs Michal Oleksiejczuk -210

The value on Oleksiejczuk is moving in the wrong direction, but we can still make this work. If you got in on him early it was as low as -170, but don’t wait he could climb here as he is a hot commodity. Antigulov looks like he has one method and a limited amount of time to get the win. If Oleksiejczuk avoids those his style will capitalize on the letdown that will follow. MO joins my top picks in my Gold Section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do like MO in my fantasy lineup. He throws with volume and finishing capability. He is the ideal fighter for your lineup. I am counting on him for big points. Add him.

Magomed Mustafaev +100 vs Rafael Fiziev -125

This is a close fight and the line reflects that now, but not when it opened. MM was nearly -200 on some sites and has come down considerably. He is another one of those fighters that is coming off a big layoff and facing a new guy. I like him at home with the advantage of taking this fight to the floor against a dedicated striker. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Mags is a finisher and he is affordable. That is enough for me to sign him up.

 

Confidence List

1. Alistair Overeem -235

2. Antonina Shevchenko -350

3. Marcin Tybura -155

4. Michal Oleksiejczuk -210

5. Sergei Pavlovich -275

====================

6. Keita Nakamura -110

7. Krzystof Jotko -188

8. Alexander Yakovlev -150

9. Islam Makhachev -350

10. Movsar Evloev -295

11. Magomed Mustafaev +100

12. Devin Clark +155

 

Value Bet List

1. Devin Clark +155

2. Marcin Tybura -155

3. Keita Nakamura -110

4. Magomed Mustafaev +100

5. Antonina Shevchenko to Win by Decision -129

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

EPU Candidate(s)

1. Gadzhimurad Antigulov/Michal Oleksiejczuk Total Rounds Under 1.5 -122

Both guys can finish and both could get finished here. I want to keep their respective skills in play at a pretty decent return. Either MO overwhelms him on the feet or Ant subs him following an early TD.

2. Magomed Mustafaev/Rafael Fiziev Total Rounds Under 1.5 +127

Similar to the fight above, both guys can finish and should come out swinging. I expect an exciting scrap for however long it lasts. Play the Under.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
2381535%

FPO Candidate

1. Movsar Evloev to Win by Submission +450

I was going to leave this fight alone, but this line was too good to leave off the card. Evloev has a solid wrestling game and is dangerous from back mount. Look for him to get a couple of shots to finish the show via sub in his debut. This fight feels more like an EPU scenario, let’s bet it like that.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
1911858%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
104640%

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Sultan Aliev -110 vs Keita Nakamura -110

2. Alexander Yakovlev -150 vs Alex da Silva +125

3. Marcin Tybura -155 vs Shamil Abdurakhimov +130

4. Magomed Mustafaev +100 vs Rafael Fiziev -125

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
102525051%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
102465645%

 

Prop Bets

Sergei Pavlovich to Win by Decision +333

Pav has gone the distance 3 times in victory, never in defeat. Golm is the type of fighter that just hangs around. He might not do much, but he just hangs in there until the end. He has dropped back to back decisions. At this type of return, I feel a 3rd is definitely in the cards.

Antonina Shevchenko to Win by Decision -129

With 5 of her 7 wins coming by decision and Roxy suffering 11 of her 15 defeats on the cards, this is a solid play that allows you to incorporate AS on your scorecards. Roxy is a tough out. Not impossible, but the line is worth a long look.

Krzystof Jotko to Win by Decision +222

Jotko is a grinder and a decision machine. He has recorded 12 of 19 wins on the cards and has just a single finish in the UFC. I expect he will recognize the needs to make this a long fight and act accordingly. Didn’t expect this type of a return.

Movsar Evloev/Seung Woo Choi

See the Betting Scenario section.

Marcin Tybura to Win by Decision +210

Tybura has gone the distance just 4 times in victory compared to double digits stoppage wins. Now 2 of those 4 wins have come in recent fights and he is facing a tough opponent that will embrace that grinding slow style. He wins on the cards.

Gadzhimurad Antigulov/Michal Oleksiejczuk

See the Betting Scenario section.

Magomed Mustafaev/Rafael Fiziev

See the Betting Scenario section.

 

 

 

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Scott Johnson

scott

Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel's popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.

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