When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Marcin Tybura
to WIN
-155
+ Alistair Overeem
to WIN
-235
ODDS:
+135
BET:
8u
RETURN:
18.76u
BET #2
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk
to WIN
-210
+ Sergei Pavlovich
to WIN
-275
ODDS:
+101
BET:
6u
RETURN:
12.08
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Keita Nakamura
to WIN
-110
ODDS:
-110
BET:
5u
RETURN:
9.55u
BET #2
+ Krzystof Jotko
to WIN
-188
+ Alexander Yakovlev
to WIN
-150
ODDS:
+155
BET:
5u
RETURN:
12.77u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Devin Clark
to WIN
+155
ODDS:
+155
BET:
3u
RETURN:
7.65u
BET #2
+ Magomed Mustafaev
to WIN
+100
ODDS:
+100
BET:
3u
RETURN:
6u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Sergei Pavlovich
to WIN by Decision
+333
ODDS:
+333
BET:
3u
RETURN:
12.99u
BET #2
+ Antonina Shevchenko
to WIN by Decision
-129
+ Krzystof Jotko
to WIN by Decision
+222
ODDS:
+472
BET:
3u
RETURN:
17.15u
BET #3
+ Marcin Tybura
to WIN by Decision
+222
ODDS:
+222
BET:
3u
RETURN:
9.66u
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Marcin Tybura
to WIN
-155
+ Alistair Overeem
to WIN
-235
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk
to WIN
-210
ODDS:
+246
BET:
9u
RETURN:
31.16u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Krzystof Jotko
to WIN
-188
+ Alexander Yakovlev
to WIN
-150
+ Keita Nakamura
to WIN
-110
ODDS:
+387
BET:
7u
RETURN:
34.12u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Devin Clark
to WIN
+155
+ Magomed Mustafaev
to WIN
+100
+ Antonina Shevchenko
to WIN by Decision
-129
ODDS:
+805
BET:
6u
RETURN:
54.32u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Sergei Pavlovich
to WIN by Decision
+333
+ Antigulov/Oleksiejczuk
Under 1.5
-122
ODDS:
+688
BET:
5u
RETURN:
39.4
BET #2
+ Movsar Evloev
to WIN by Sub
+450
+ Krzystof Jotko
to WIN by Decision
+222
+ Marcin Tybura
to WIN by Decision
+222
ODDS:
+5603
BET:
4u
RETURN:
228.1u
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
+ Devin Clark
$7500
+ Keita Nakamura
$8200
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk
$8800
+ Magomed Mustafaev
$8500
+ Alexander Yakolev
$8300
+ Marcin Tybura
$8400
Spares
+
+
+
+
Betting Breakdowns
Alistair Overeem -235 vs Aleksei Oleinik +200
Oleinik routinely defies the oddsmakers and predictors alike. His ability to find the sub and pull off the upset is impressive. Can he do it here? The line hasn’t moved much, with Overeem sitting around the -245/-250 range at the open and he has trended down just a bit. Unless Aleksei can catch Overeem on the chin or grab a scramble TD, he is going to struggle to get him to the floor. Overeem is too big and strong to be forced down and he is the better striker by a wide margin. I had this line closer to -320. I like Overeem in my Gold section.
I had Overeem in my lineup originally, but he was too expensive for what was available to me. I am not thrilled about my DK lineup, but I will pass on the Reem.
Islam Makhachev -350 vs Arman Tsarukyan +275
This should be a good scrap here and potentially much closer than the line indicates. Pass for me.
At $9400, Mak is way too pricey for what we can do here. Pass as well.
Sergei Pavlovich -275 vs Marcelo Golm +225
Sergei had some hype on him in his debut and I grabbed Overeem at the right time. I like Pavlovich here, but it also comes down to the struggles of Golm beyond round 1. The travel factor also plays again Golm here. SP opened around -300 and has steadily improved and some Books have him as low as -240 which is a nice line. I still think he is worth a look when combined with another favourite. I am looking at pairing Pav with Overeem this time around in my Gold Section of the HBC. He might be a pass in my CBC.
Pavlovich is costly at $9200, best to look elsewhere.
Ivan Shtyrko -175 vs Devin Clark +150
There is so much uncertainty around Shtyrko. He is massive and normally fights at HW. By massive, I mean from a muscled perspective. That normally doesn’t work well in the modern UFC- but it still could get him a win. Clark needs to be mindful of getting clipped, but he is in a good spot here to pull off the upset. The line has stayed fairly constant which is fine with me. I can’t wait to get a good look at Shtyrko, but Clark is a Bronze bet for me.
With so many big favs, I like Clark in my lineup. He has power, could get a finish with a big shot or through exhaustion and he helps the budget. Add him.
Roxanne Modafferi +275 vs Antonina Shevchenko -350
I might look at a prop bet here, but Shev is too heavy a favourite and still a little untested to be worth laying this much chalk on. Pass.
Roxy is not easy to get out of there. I will skip AS here as well.
Krzystof Jotko -188 vs Alen Amedovski +160
This fight opened much closer and Jotko has been bet down to -180 and lower. He has struggled against quality competition, but he is getting a step back. We don’t know a lot about Amedovski, but he does have a lot of red flags: early finishes, minimal experience, lower level competition- he is fading material. Jotko is a fighter we do know a lot about. If he gets by round 1, he should be in good shape. I like him to anchor my Silver plays.
What makes Jotko effective, also makes him unappealing here. He is a grinder with a decision heavy record. Pass.
Movsar Evloev -295 vs Seung Woo Choi +310
I am not interested in investing in this bout either. I might grab a prop bet if the number is right, but too much uncertainty with a big line like this. Pass.
Evloev has finish potential, but he is expensive. I will pass
Sultan Aliev -110 vs Keita Nakamura -110
Nakamura is coming in as an injury replacement, but he is a veteran which should help him to prep and not be impacted by that scenario. The line has stayed relatively the same for most of the week which is fine with me. I see Nak as the more durable fighter and the superior striker. He is also a capable grappler. Aliev needs to have his top control on point from start to finish to get the win here. He can. but Nak has more avenues to win this one. Silver Play.
Again, not a huge fan of my Fantasy team, but K-Taro is on board. He won’t score well without a finish, but I going to stick with him here. He has better boxing and a good submission game if he can find his way to Aliev’s back. Add him.
Alexander Yakovlev -150 vs Alex da Silva +125
This line varies a bit from site to site, with Yakovlev anywhere from -135 to -180. We have him in the middle. I like this line on a massive LW fighting at home on a long layoff against a debuting fighter on the road. Da Silva struggled with his opponent’s top control in his only loss and AY can replicate that. He is a tough out and if this fight is close I like the guy at home to get the nod. Yaks takes it. Silver Play.
I think Yaks can grind this one out with takedowns and top control. Again, I don’t feel like there are a lot of affordable options out there, but I have the big Russian in my lineup.
Marcin Tybura -155 vs Shamil Abdurakhimov +130
Tybura was closer to -185 at the open and has steadily improved in value since. I think he has edges in every category here; cardio, volume, grappling, clinch, striking. They might be slight, but together they will add up here. Abdurakhimov is just so passive that he opens himself to get outworked even with a pedestrian work rate. I like Marcin as one of my top plays- Gold it is!
I don’t know if he can get the finish, but I could see Tybura scooping up some takedowns and if he can land one of those big head kicks anything could happen. Add him.
Gadzhimurad Antigulov +175 vs Michal Oleksiejczuk -210
The value on Oleksiejczuk is moving in the wrong direction, but we can still make this work. If you got in on him early it was as low as -170, but don’t wait he could climb here as he is a hot commodity. Antigulov looks like he has one method and a limited amount of time to get the win. If Oleksiejczuk avoids those his style will capitalize on the letdown that will follow. MO joins my top picks in my Gold Section.
I do like MO in my fantasy lineup. He throws with volume and finishing capability. He is the ideal fighter for your lineup. I am counting on him for big points. Add him.
Magomed Mustafaev +100 vs Rafael Fiziev -125
This is a close fight and the line reflects that now, but not when it opened. MM was nearly -200 on some sites and has come down considerably. He is another one of those fighters that is coming off a big layoff and facing a new guy. I like him at home with the advantage of taking this fight to the floor against a dedicated striker. Bronze play.
Mags is a finisher and he is affordable. That is enough for me to sign him up.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
1. Gadzhimurad Antigulov/Michal Oleksiejczuk Total Rounds Under 1.5 -122
Both guys can finish and both could get finished here. I want to keep their respective skills in play at a pretty decent return. Either MO overwhelms him on the feet or Ant subs him following an early TD.
2. Magomed Mustafaev/Rafael Fiziev Total Rounds Under 1.5 +127
Similar to the fight above, both guys can finish and should come out swinging. I expect an exciting scrap for however long it lasts. Play the Under.
EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47
24
23
51%
2016 Picks
55
31
24
56%
2017 Picks
47
20
27
43%
2018 Picks
42
25
17
60%
2019 Picks
32
13
19
41%
2020 Picks
23
8
15
35%
FPO Candidate
1. Movsar Evloev to Win by Submission +450
I was going to leave this fight alone, but this line was too good to leave off the card. Evloev has a solid wrestling game and is dangerous from back mount. Look for him to get a couple of shots to finish the show via sub in his debut. This fight feels more like an EPU scenario, let’s bet it like that.
Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36
16
20
44%
2016
39
26
13
67%
2017
34
25
9
74%
2018
33
22
11
67%
2019
38
23
15
61%
2020
19
11
8
58%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29
12
17
41%
2016 Picks
35
17
18
49%
2017 Picks
29
12
17
41%
2018 Picks
31
13
18
42%
2019 Picks
30
9
21
30%
2020 Picks
10
4
6
40%
HEF Candidate(s)
1. Sultan Aliev -110 vs Keita Nakamura -110
2. Alexander Yakovlev -150 vs Alex da Silva +125
3. Marcin Tybura -155 vs Shamil Abdurakhimov +130
4. Magomed Mustafaev +100 vs Rafael Fiziev -125
HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177
93
84
53%
2016
212
106
106
50%
2017
179
110
69
61%
2018
192
100
92
52%
2019
217
100
117
46%
2020
102
52
50
51%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181
97
84
54%
2016 Picks
212
108
104
51%
2017 Picks
179
87
92
49%
2018 Picks
192
95
97
49%
2019 Picks
211
110
101
52%
2020 Picks
102
46
56
45%
Prop Bets
Sergei Pavlovich to Win by Decision +333
Pav has gone the distance 3 times in victory, never in defeat. Golm is the type of fighter that just hangs around. He might not do much, but he just hangs in there until the end. He has dropped back to back decisions. At this type of return, I feel a 3rd is definitely in the cards.
Antonina Shevchenko to Win by Decision -129
With 5 of her 7 wins coming by decision and Roxy suffering 11 of her 15 defeats on the cards, this is a solid play that allows you to incorporate AS on your scorecards. Roxy is a tough out. Not impossible, but the line is worth a long look.
Krzystof Jotko to Win by Decision +222
Jotko is a grinder and a decision machine. He has recorded 12 of 19 wins on the cards and has just a single finish in the UFC. I expect he will recognize the needs to make this a long fight and act accordingly. Didn’t expect this type of a return.
Movsar Evloev/Seung Woo Choi
See the Betting Scenario section.
Marcin Tybura to Win by Decision +210
Tybura has gone the distance just 4 times in victory compared to double digits stoppage wins. Now 2 of those 4 wins have come in recent fights and he is facing a tough opponent that will embrace that grinding slow style. He wins on the cards.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel's popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.