UFC FIGHT NIGHT 148: Thompson vs Pettis Bet Pack Review

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 148: Thompson vs Pettis Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Angela Hill  to WIN -150
ODDS: -150
BET: 9u
RETURN: 15u

 

BET #2
+ Deiveson Figueiredo  to WIN -143
+ Maycee Barber  to WIN -250
ODDS: +138
BET: 7u
RETURN: 16.65u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Justin Willis  to WIN +225
ODDS: +225
BET: 5u
RETURN: 16.25u

 

BET #2
+ Marlon Vera  to WIN -170
+ Alexis Davis  to WIN -143
ODDS: +170
BET: 6u
RETURN: 16.19u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Jesus Pinedo  to WIN +250
ODDS: +250
BET: 2u
RETURN: 7u

 

BET #2
+ Jordan Espinosa  to WIN +130
+ Bobby Moffett  to WIN -160
ODDS: +274
BET: 4u
RETURN: 14.95u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Maycee Barber  to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +310
ODDS: +310
BET: 4u
RETURN: 16.4u

 

BET #2
+ Marlon Vera  to Win Inside the Distance +165
+ Angela Hill  to Win by Decision -110
ODDS: +406
BET: 3u
RETURN: 15.18u

BET #3
+ Stephen Thompson to Win by Decision +185
+ Deiveson Figueiredo  to WIN -143
+ Alexis Davis  to WIN -143
ODDS: +723
BET: 3u
RETURN: 24.69u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Maycee Barber  to WIN -250
+ Deiveson Figueiredo to WIN -143
+ Angela Hill  to WIN -150
ODDS: +297
BET: 9u
RETURN: 35.69u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Marlon Vera  to WIN -170
+ Justin Willis  to WIN +225
+ Alexis Davis  to WIN -143
ODDS: +777
BET: 7u
RETURN: 61.4u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Jordan Espinosa  to WIN +130
+ Bobby Moffett  to WIN -160
+ Jesus Pinedo 
to WIN +250
ODDS: +1208
BET: 4u
RETURN: 52.33u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Stephen Thompson to Win by Decision +185
+ Justin Willis  to WIN +225
+ Bobby Moffett  to Win by Decision +240
ODDS: +3049
BET: 4u
RETURN: 125.97u

 

BET #2
+ Marlon Vera  to Win Inside the Distance +165
+ Angela Hill  to Win by Decision -110
+ Chris Gutierrez
to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +200
ODDS: +1418
BET: 4u
RETURN: 60.71u

BET #3
+ Maycee Barber to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +310
+ Angela Hill  to Win by Decision -110
+ Alexis Davis  to WIN -143
ODDS: +1230
BET: 4u
RETURN: 53.2u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Maycee Barber $8900
+ Marlon Vera $8400
+ Chris Gutierrez $8300
+ Jordan Espinosa $7500
+ Deiveson Figueiredo $8500
+ Angela Hill $8200

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

*it is a short night and I have my kid’s B-Day party to prep for so I will be short and too the point.

Stephen Thompson -400 vs Anthony Pettis +300

This is one of those fights that I plan to just stay away from. I might look at a prop bet, but nothing stands out to me at this point. We can invest elsewhere with less elements of unknown. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass here as well. Thompson could get the stoppage or we could get a slow paced fencing match. Not ideal for fantasy points.

Curtis Blaydes -275 vs Justin Willis +225

I’m not sold on Blaydes unless he can take his foe down at will. Willis is far from a dynamic striker, but he is effective and that should be enough here. The line here has stay pretty consistent and that probably has a lot to do with the lack of name value on Willis. I will take “Big Pretty” as Silver Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Willis’s volume isn’t overwhelming and he has gone the distance in 3 of 4 UFC bouts. Pass.

John Makdessi -334 vs Jesus Pinedo +250

This fight was thrown together at the last second and can certainly turns things on its head. Makdessi is coming in off a pair of wins, but we still need to look at the big picture. He is trending downward. Pinedo opened closer to +165, so we are getting a decent return here. He is still a little green- Bronze Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Makdessi offers some decent defense and while he might drop a decision, he most likely won’t get blown out of the barn. There are better options elsewhere.

Jussier Formiga +120 vs Deiveson Figueiredo -143

Considering Formiga’s previous shortcomings when it comes to title eliminators (if this is one), I wouldn’t hate if he won this fight. Conversely, he is going to struggle with the physicality and punching power of Figueiredo. DF opened around -175 so there is money to be made here at a better price than we were getting. I like my history with both fighters- Gold Play for Figs.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Figs also cracks my Fantasy lineup. He isn’t as expensive as a lot of other fighters out there and he has the finishing skills to put Jussier away. Add him.

Luis Pena -250 vs Steven Peterson +200

Pena missed weight trying to get down to 145 pounds and that could be an issue against an opponent that constantly moves forward. If Pena has any cracks in his cardio from the cut, Peterson can capitalize. I will pass and consider a counter bet on Peterson.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing doing here. Peterson is a tough out.

Maycee Barber -250 vs JJ Aldrich +200

Most sites have MB between -235 and and -265 with one site closer to -310. The magnitude of Aldrich’s win over Viana took a hit with Cifers replicating her performance. Baber works at a good rate and should be able to bully the more slight Aldrich. I like Maycee in this range as a Gold Play, potentially paired up with Figs.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Barber has the potential to put up decent volume and and grab a finish here. She is worth a look as a Fantasy Picks. I have her in my lineup.

Bryce Mitchell +130 vs Bobby Moffett -160

Moffett is the more experienced fighter with a better gas tank. Outside of that, there is a lot of similarities here. That is actually a good thing as it will limit the potential that Mitchell throws a curve-ball and pulls this one out. Moffet was as high at -185, so we are getting a little extra value. I was leaning towards a Silver play, but I dropped Moffett to the Bronze section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Moffett has a good sub game and could get the finish here, but I think there is a legit chance we go the distance with Mitchell surviving in bad spots for 15 minutes.

Frankie Saenz +140 vs Marlon Vera -170

I am not super high on Saenz. He needs to wrestle, gives up takedowns, and is vulnerable on the feet. My biggest concern here is that Vera fails to rally if he gets off to a slow start and drops a decision. Vera could grab a sub or finish him on the feet. MV opened closer to -250, so we are getting a deal here on a Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Vera in my lineup. As mentioned, he has good subs and is capable of grabbing a stoppage on the feet. Saenz has been stopped twice via strikes, I think we get a third one. Add him.

Alexis Davis -143 vs Jennifer Maia +120

Davis opened around the -230 mark and has climbed as high as -130 on some sites. She is the more complete fighter here with the ability to exploit the ground gaps in Maia’s game. She would probably be a Gold play if she wasn’t coming off a fight where she let her opponent off the hook on the mat. Silver Bet, most likely combined with Vera.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I don’t think Davis gets a finish here unless she drives hard on a sub. Pass.

Randa Markos +130 vs Angela Hill -150

Hill is ranging from -130 to -155 which is a playable number. Markos has a pattern; start strong with takedowns, fade and rely less effectively on strikes. Hill’s TDD has got better and while she may lose the first round on her back, I fully expect to see her take the fight over with vastly superior cardio and volume. Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Hill in my lineup. Not because I expect her to get a finish, but because she has put up 100+ sig strikes in each of her last 3 fights and has a very good chance to make it 4 in a row here. Add her.

Ryan MacDonald +200 vs Chris Gutierrez -250

I will pass here. Everything indicates that Mac should lose, but we don’t know enough to be confident either way here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do have Gutierrez in my fantasy lineup. I anticipate that he will be able to pressure and exploit the porous striking defense of RM. If he win, it is most likely by stoppage.

Eric Shelton -160 vs Jordan Espinosa +130

Shelton has been underwhelming in his fights. He strikes well, works his takedowns and stays active. At the same time he tends to be unwilling to let his hands go. He has allowed TDs as well which is an area that Espinosa can find success with. I also don’t like the near subs Shelton was fighting off in his last fight. Espinosa is a new guy, I will take him in the Bronze section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

At $7500, JE is a decent buy that can finish both on the feet and the mat. I see Shelton’s overconfidence costing him here on the mat.

 

Confidence List

1. Maycee Barber -250

2. Stephen Thompson -400

3. Angela Hill -150

4. Deiveson Figueiredo -143

5. Marlon Vera -170

====================

6. Alexis Davis -143

7. Chris Gutierrez -250

8. Luis Pena -250

9. Justin Willis +225

10. Bobby Moffett -160

11. Jordan Espinosa +130

12. Jesus Pinedo +250

 

Value Bet List

1. Justin Willis +225

2. Angela Hill -150

3. Jordan Espinosa +130

4. Jesus Pinedo +250

5. Deiveson Figueiredo -143

 

Counter Bets

1. Steven Peterson +200

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

EPU Candidate(s)

1. Chris Gutierrez to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +200

This trend is holding pretty strong so we will roll with it. With a pair of relatively new fighters, with 1 debuting we have a high likelihood of a finish. CG hits hard and I have seen Mac hurt by lesser opponents on the regional scene. I think Chris can get it done here.

2. Eric Shelton/Jordan Espinosa

This fight could end via finish, most likely Espinosa getting it, but I will sit this one out and root for the dog anyway we can get it.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
13
19
26
7 of 23 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
2191243%

FPO Candidate

1. Bobby Moffett to Win by Decision +240

I like to fade guys finishing skills following an impressive debut win. Mitchell is decent on the mat himself and could stay out of trouble long enough to get us to the cards. This trend is returning to the proper numbers and I think we have a good chance to do that here with a nice return.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
2216673%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
1751229%

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Jussier Formiga +120 vs Deiveson Figueiredo -143

2. Bryce Mitchell +130 vs Bobby Moffett -160

3. Alexis Davis -143 vs Jennifer Maia +120

4. Randa Markos +130 vs Angela Hill -150

5. Eric Shelton -160 vs Jordan Espinosa +130

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
119576248%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
178958353%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
119596050%

 

Prop Bets

Stephen Thompson to Win by Decision +185

Thompson is 5-fights removed from his last knockout back in 2016 and the chances of him bagging a submission are limited. I could see this fight turn into a showcase of skill with Thompson doing more over 25-minutes.

Maycee Barber to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +310

Barber likes to push a stiff pace and unless JJ’s movement can’t shut her down, Maycee is going to push forward without much reason to back up. Barber can finish her on the cage or on the mat. I love the +300 return.

Bryce Mitchell/Bobby Moffett

See Betting Scenario Section.

Marlon Vera to Win Inside the Distance +165

Vera has shown he can finish almost anywhere and while Saenz has never been submitted, there is always a first for things. Saenz could get himself in trouble shooting carelessly for takedowns, but he could also get smacked on the feet. He has lost twice by knockout. Let’s keep our options open.

Angela Hill to Win by Decision -110

Some sites are only giving you -130 for this prop, but I honestly don’t see Hill finishing Markos so it still gives you a slight bump. At -110 its nice enough to risk, tread carefully depending on the value.

Ryan MacDonald/Chris Gutierrez

See Betting Scenario Section.

Eric Shelton/Jordan Espinosa

See Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

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