UFC on Fox 3 has come and gone; we have new front runners in the Lightweight and Welterweight divisions. Kamikaze Overdrive’s struggles predicting Jim Miller fights continue and unfortunately those difficulties seemed to rub off on the entire card.Fo
On the negative side of the night I went 4-8-0 with my predictions, which equates to an unsuccessful Event Betting pack (first time in 3 shows). As a result, Win, Lose, or Draw on my next event bet pack (UFC on Fuel TV 3) if you buy it you will automatically get the Strikeforce 40 Bet pack for free, don’t miss out.
On the positive side, Johny Hendricks picked up a razor-thin split decision win joining Dennis Siver and Chris Clements as third fighter to take part in my “One on One with…” interview series to emerge victorious. Hendricks improved that record to a perfect 3-0 and provided one of the few bright spots for me in evening dominated by underdogs (7 of 12 fights were won by the betting underdog).
– Unfortunately circumstance prevented me from watching the first three fights of the night, so I can’t really comment on those match-ups.
-Danny Castillo won a close fight, mainly on the basis of his striking which is surprising. Cholish looked decent and I expect him to continue improving. Danny Castillo B- John Cholish C+
-Gaudinot vs Lineker = Fight of the Night and simply a very entertaining fight that should help to further add fans to the UFC’s newest and smallest division. Lineker was getting the better of the striking exchanges, but was ready to deal with Gaudinot on the ground and went to sleep. Louis Gaudinot B+ John Lineker B
-John Hathaway looked okay, nothing stood out as overly impressive considering he was facing an opponent with only one UFC fight and nearly 2 years since his last fight. Both fighters are still young with room for improvement. John Hathaway B Pascal Krauss C-
– It continued to hold true as another small Bantamweight moved down to Flyweight and lost his speed advantage. John Dodson still won the fight, with a damaged hand, but it was a far closer match-up then many predicted including the odds makers that had Dodson as a 5-1 favorite. Elliot was unorthodox and did everything he could against the TUF champ, despite the loss he had an excellent showing. John Dodson B+ Tim Elliot B+
-Michael Johnson continues to improve, his striking looked good and he has decent power. Ferguson is claiming a broken arm which certainly would inhibit his performance, but that shouldn’t take away from Johnson’s effort. Michael Johnson A Tony Ferguson C
-Pat Barry nearly had his submission win, but probably should focused more on keeping out of Lavar’s range and using his kicks to slow him down. Johnson has serious power and when he gets his opponent pressed against the cage he knows how to deliver it. I don’t know how far Johnson is going to go, his ground game is certainly a big question (Pat Barry mounted and controlled him). If Johnson gets up against another big heavyweight who can match his size and strength he might struggle to find the success he has had early against undersized HWs. Johnson vs Shane Carwin (whenever he gets back from injury) would be a fun fight. Lavar Johnson A+ Pat Barry C
-Good on Alan Belcher for engaging Palhares in the one area that everyone else has lost in. Belcher shot himself up the Middleweight rankings with this win, where he goes from here will be quite interesting. Belcher has the potential to match almost anyone anywhere the fight goes, Belcher vs Munoz/ Bisping winner would be interesting. Palhares seemed to give up after his submission attempts failed, he might have lost a little of his mystique. Alan Belcher A+ Rousimar Palhares D
-Koscheck got the nod in a close fight against Mike Pierce, unfortunately for him he was on the wrong end of this decision. Hendricks did a nice job matching Koscheck just about anywhere the fight went, his reach could become an issue against an opponent that can effectively utilize a jab. Hendricks vs Kampmann/ Ellenberger winner makes sense, Koscheck vs Nick Diaz (if he decides to come back) would be an entertaining bout in and outside the cage. Johny Hendricks A Josh Koscheck B
-Nate Diaz took out a previously unstopped Jim Miller in his hometown and by doing so officially moved to the top of the 155 pound heap. Diaz has both the submission skills and striking to dominate anywhere a fight goes and with his height and reach adding to his advantages he is a serious threat to the winner of Henderson/Edgar II. I like Nate’s style he is an aggressive fighter but at the same time knows how to play the game, unlike his brother, and shows a lot of class in the aftermath. I feel bad for Jim Miller as after treading water for so long trying to remain in the title picture while waiting for his shot he has now lost 2 of 3 and may very well never get another his shot at the gold. Good main event, probably the best one so far on Fox. Nate Diaz A+ Jim Miller C
-Looking back, despite my struggles predicting the winners it was a decent night of action.
Roland Delorme 2.95 vs Nick Denis 1.35
Delorme looked pretty solid in his last fight, he was able to tie up his opponent and get it to the ground when he wanted to. If he can do that to Denis he should be able to submit him with ease. Denis is a knockout machine and has the luxury of starting this fight in his realm of dominance. I never like to invest too much into the opening fight, especially when my pick pays less then $1.50. I would suggest staying away from this fight, unless you really think you see something.
Mike Massenzio 1.90 vs Karlos Vemola 1.80
Vemola has one impressive win in the UFC and a pair of one-sided losses. He got manhandled by a BJJ Black belt in his last fight and is now facing another Black Belt with wrestling credentials to go along with it in Massenzio. It is hard to back a fighter during his first attempt cutting weight, especially considering he once fought at HW and is now headed to 185. I like Massenzio at $1.90 in this fight, especially if Vemola’s conditioning fails.
Pablo Garza 2.40 vs Dennis Bermudez 1.50
Bermudez has lost 3 straight by submission which is a huge concern against the long limbed submission skills of Garza. With that stat alone it is hard to ignore Garza, considering he pays $2.40 it is even harder not to include him in some capascity. I would suggest a small bet on Garza by himself, while taking Bermudez has part of a parlay.
John Cholish 2.00 vs Danny Castillo 1.72
I was pleasantly surprised when I came across these odds, I expected Castillo to be closer to $1.45, maybe lower. Cholish looked okay in his debut, really didn’t do anything significant until his opponenent’s adrenaline dump kicked in and he ran out of steam. Castillo is a beast and should be able to control Cholish with his wrestling, maybe a TKO but more likely a Decision. Castillo at $1.72 is nice single bet or adds some decent power to a parlay. Cholish at $2.00 is a little too low for my liking and I would advise you to stay away from him as an underdog play.
Louis Gaudinot 3.20 vs John Lineker 1.30
Lineker is a beast and Gaudinot has looked outmatched both in his last appearance on TUF and in his debut. This is a new weight class for him, but Lineker’s aggressive style should give him a whole pile of problems. I don’t like to ever discount a fighter but even at $3.20 Gaudinot is hard to back, most likely he would be close to $4 if Lineker had already had his UFC debut. Lineker at $1.30 is a solid investment, maybe Lineker and Castillo is worth a look.
Pascal Krauss 2.75 vs John Hathaway 1.40
My prediction was Krauss to pick up the win, but he has been out of action for almost 2 years and Hathaway is a nice step up in competition. Most likely I would either back Krauss as part of a small investment parlay (see above) and stay away from Hathaway. Maybe a parlay of Lineker & Castillo and then a second with those 2 and Krauss would make a solid little play.
Tim Elliott 4.30 vs John Dodson 1.18
Dodson at $1.18 is a tough sell. His speed was the key at BW, but at 125 it might not be as much of an advantage. Elliott is making a big step up and realizes that he will be sticking around no matter how this fight goes because the division is so new and lacks depth. As a result he should recognize how big this fight is for him and that in all reality he has nothing to lose. Stay away from this one and enjoy some fast pace Flyweight action with no cash on the line.
Michael Johnson 3.00 vs Tony Ferguson 1.33
I really question Johnson’s fight IQ; when he fought Paul Sass he pretty much opened himself up for the one thing that Sass does really well and got beat. His cardio is an issues as well, and Tony Ferguson can go a full three rounds without a huge drop off in performance. At $1.33 this is an okay investment, better served as part of a parlay but a single bet wouldn’t be out of the questions. Johnson as a dog should be avoided.
Lavar Johnson 2.60 vs Pat Barry 1.43
Heavyweight matchup that most likely isn’t going the distance. I like Barry at $1.43, but Johnson is also tempting at $2.60. If Johnson can press tight on Barry and control he could land a powerful uppercut and end his night. The longer the fight goes the more it benefits HD as Lavar should start slowing down from a combination of questionable cardio and Barry’s leg kicks. Barry did a nice job defending Morecrafts submission attempts and Johnson doesn’t have the same grappling pedigree to give him issues. Barry alone or as a parlay sounds good, but if you do Barry as part of a parlay back him up with a small play on Lavar or Lavar by knockout which currently sits at $3.00.
Alan Belcher 3.20 vs Rousimar Palhares 1.30
Belcher has real world talent and at $3.20 he is worth a long look, but he will need to be picture perfect in order to avoid Palhares’s ground game. Palhares at $1.30 is okay, but a prop bet (see below) is more likely the way to go.
Johny Hendricks 1.83 vs Josh Koscheck 1.83
I was hoping that these odds wouldn’t reflect the changing face of the division, but that was kind of a pipe dream. I like Hendricks at $1.83, but I wanted him closer to $2.00 which is where he opened. Koscheck didn’t look great in his last fight and is fighting a similar fighter with more refined skills, so he will need to be at his best and I expect nothing less. To be 100% honest these odds don’t really excite me all that much, personally I will back Hendricks as single bet and on parlay, but not to the extend that he could cost me my entire night.
Nate Diaz 2.75 vs Jim Miller 1.40
Diaz has looked too good of late not to put a little money down on him, single bet. I like my dogs to be closer to $3.00, but Diaz has the ability to win any fight at LW especially if it goes 5 rounds. Miller is a beast, this is opportunity #2 to get his title shot and I don’t think he will let his one go by. At $1.40 he is worth consideration for a small bet, maybe as part of a parlay with a couple other fights, but be careful lets try to have a little cash already banked before the main event.
1. John Lineker
2. Tony Ferguson
3. Danny Castillo
4. Rousimar Palhares
5. Jim Miller
Tony Ferguson by TKO/KO/DQ $2.75– Ferguson has serious power and we really haven’t seen Johnson take one on the chin. Johnson will most likely stand and trade with Tony and this could leave him open for the knockout.
Pat Barry to win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.90- His submission skills aren’t there and most HW fights end inside the distance so this leaves Barry by some form of knockout as a pretty solid bet and probably should be used over Barry to win straight up.
Pat Barry to Win in Round 1 S2.40 or Round 2 $5.o0- Again HW fights don’t often go the distance which means they should be over in under 2 rounds. If you use a ratio of 2:1 to invest your money, ie $20 x 2.40 = $48 and $10 x $5.00 = $50 you won’t double your total investment but you will pull a solid profit if things play out the way I expect them to.
Rousimar Palhares by Submission $1.80– He isn’t the type of fighter to grind out a decision win and Belcher’s striking should be good enough to avoid the knockout. With the feverish manner that he goes after his subs at a $1.80 if you are picking Palhares to win, take him by sub to add a little more value.
Johny Hendricks by KO/TKO/DQ $5.50- Kos has only been knocked out once in his career, but the manner in which he dispatched Fitch makes this seem like a worthwhile investment. Hendricks by Decision at $2.40 is a decent bet as wel if you don’t think he can put Kos away with one shot.
Jim Miller on Points $1.75– Diaz is a tough guy to put away so I don’t see Miller knocking him out or submitting him so Miller by decision is probably the best option and adds a little more value.
FOTN Top 3 Options
1) Miller vs Diaz
2) Barry vs Johnson
3) Palhares vs Belcher