When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Anthony Smith
to Win
-175
+ Ricky Simon
to Win
-170
ODDS:
+150
BET:
9u
RETURN:
22.46u
BET #2
+ Drew Dober
to Win
-125
ODDS:
+125
BET:
10u
RETURN:
18u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Thiago Moises
to Win
-110
+ Omar Morales
to Win
-175
ODDS:
+200
BET:
6u
RETURN:
18u
BET #2
+ Ben Rothwell
to Win
+110
+ Philipe Lins
to Win
-160
ODDS:
+241
BET:
6u
RETURN:
20.48u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Sarah Moras
to Win
+300
ODDS:
+300
BET:
3u
RETURN:
12u
BET #2
+ Ike Villanueva
to Win
+130
+ Hunter Azure
to Win
-188
ODDS:
+252
BET:
3u
RETURN:
10.57u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Anthony Smith
to Win
-175
+ Thiago Moises
to Win
-110
+ Ricky Simon
to Win
-170
ODDS:
+376
BET:
5u
RETURN:
23.82u
BET #2
+ Ricky Simon
to Win by Decision
+130
+ Ike Villanueva
to Win by TKO/KO
+235
ODDS:
+671
BET:
4u
RETURN:
30.82u
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Anthony Smith
to Win
-175
+ Drew Dober
to Win
-125
+ Ricky Simon
to Win
-170
ODDS:
+349
BET:
14u
RETURN:
62.89u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Thiago Moises
to Win
-110
+ Omar Morales
to Win
-175
+ Ben Rothwell
to Win
+110
ODDS:
+530
BET:
9u
RETURN:
56.7u
BET #2
+ Thiago Moises
to Win
-110
+ Omar Morales
to Win
-175
+ Philipe Lins
to Win
-160
ODDS:
+388
BET:
7u
RETURN:
34.13u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Ike Villanueva
to Win
+130
+ Sarah Moras
to Win
+300
+ Hunter Azure
to Win
-188
ODDS:
+1309
BET:
5u
RETURN:
70.47u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Ricky Simon
to Win by Decision
+130
+ Ike Villanueva
to Win by TKO/KO
+235
+ Anthony Smith
to Win
-175
ODDS:
+1111
BET:
5u
RETURN:
60.54u
BET #2
+ Ben Rothwell
to Win
+110
+ Drew Dober
to Win
-125
+ Philipe Lins
to Win
-160
ODDS:
+514
BET:
6u
RETURN:
36.86u
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
+ Ben Rothwell
$7500
+ Drew Dober
$8300
+ Ike Villanueva
$7800
+ Anthony Smith
$9000
+ Thiago Moises
$8200
+ Hunter Azure
$9100
Spares
+ Marvin Vettori
$8900
+
+
+
Betting Breakdowns
Anthony Smith -175 vs Glover Teixeira +150
The life after a failed title fight goes on for both men. Glover has made the most of it and Smith did well in his first fight.
Getting off to a good start is important, but it isn’t a slam dunk in this case.
Keep an eye on the live bets if Smith gets behind early, he tends to rally late and you could cash in.
The line has fluctuated a little with some sites as high as -185 on Lionheart, he opened around -165 so we are still in good shape.
Glover has been able to capitalize on poor grapplers/poor cardio and/or inexperienced fighters that faltered. I don’t think Smith fits that category.
I like Anthony as a Gold bet despite my recent struggles in the Main Event. Might only get 1 inclusion as Glover is tough.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Smith is a proven finisher which is clearly important.
Glover can be hurt, has been finishes, notably by Gus after a war, and that is what we could be looking at.
Add him.
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Ben Rothwell +110 vs Ovince Saint Preux -138
I am not high on OSP. He has talent, but he has developed very little since his Strikeforce days.
Moving up to HW might not be the best option for him, especially coming in around 240 pounds.
That extra weight will tax his already questionable cardio + Rothwell is 25 pounds heavier and is used to carrying it.
This fight was close, but our return on Big Ben is improving with some lines closer to +120.
Some uncertainty about OSP at HW prevents me from going on all in.
I had Rothwell as a Bronze play, but I feel he is better suited in my Silver Plays.
Silver Bet- Rothwell.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
At $7500, Rothwell is affordable and opens some doors for us.
We have seen OSP fold with power and he can be finished. Look for him to tire and Ben to start to hurt him.
Ben finishes him with power or a possible sub if exhaustion kicks in.
Add him.
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Drew Dober -125 vs Alexander Hernandez +100
This should be a very fun fight regardless of the outcome.
I feel like Hernandez got a lot too soon and is a little uncertain of himself right now.
Dober is a vet and at the best point of his career by far- that means a lot.
The line is moving in our favour. Dober opened around -140 and is now down to -115.
Look for this fight to possibly flip with Dober as the dog by fight time.
I like Drew as a Gold play.
Prop Bet:
No Play. There seems to be a trend here- lots of playable SU options means less focus on Prop bets.
DK Lineup:
Dober is a scrapper with decent volume and he has improving power.
Hernandez got blasted by Cerrone and finished which suggests that a peak performing Dober could do it as well.
At $8300 we get a decent deal.
Add him.
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Ray Borg +140 vs Ricky Simon -170
Borg made weight which is good for him, but let’s be honest he needs to be at 125. That is where he can contend and quickly.
Regardless, this is a tough fight for him. Simon is the more active striker and should be able to either defend the TDs or get up quickly like Kenney did and go back to work.
It is worth noting that Simon was the dog at the open and the line has flipped considerably.
I still like the style matchup and we are familiar with both fighters.
Gold play for Simon who outworks him start to finish.
Prop Bet:
Ricky Simon to Win by Decision +130
If you want a little more value on this fight this is a solid option
Borg is a difficult fighter to finish and Simon isn’t a vaunted finisher.
Simon looks to be a new aged Clay Guida- take him on the cards.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Karl Roberson +150 vs Marvin Vettori -175
Roberson missed weight today by 1.5 pounds and while fighters that miss weight have done well in their fight, we just saw Stephens get absolutely sparked.
Vettori is the more diverse fighter and the more active. I also like how durable he is.
If Roberson doesn’t have his grappling game to include he loses a key weapon which is odd considering his background.
The line on Vettori is slipping, opening around -150 and now as low as -185.
Regardless, he is a solid bet.
Gold play for the Italian Dream.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Vettori is a little expensive for my liking, but a submission finish is possible and his volume is solid if not.
I have him as a sub most likely to be swapped with Azure who is facing a less durable opponent.
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Andrei Arlovski +130 vs Philipe Lins -160
AA just keeps going, but I guess as long as they will book him he will keep coming back.
The line is moving nicely and would have been untouchable before around the -205 mark.
I don’t expect to see it move too much further in our direction before fight time.
79% of fans on Tapology are on Lins which is a little surprising considering the line movement.
Lins, like Rothwell could have been a Bronze play but I bumped PL up to Silver as we do have a good read on AA.
Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario section.
DK Lineup:
I considered play here, but AA’s ability to avoid the big shot as improved (yes, I saw his last fight)
Lins is also a counter striker, so the totals could be lower if this fight goes the distance.
This is a pass for me.
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Michael Johnson -110 vs Thiago Moises -110
Even money at my book which is fine by me.
Moises entered the week around -155, so there is some value here.
I feel like MJ is easily the more known name which ways heavily with the betting public and Moises is 1-2 in the UFC.
He has lost 2 a pair of good fighters though and MJ’s poor cardio/ grappling defense, and ability to fade from strong starts is too much to bet on here.
Moises is a Silver play with a strong top game for the win.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
At $8200 Moises is someone we can include.
He can finish and MJ has been finished a lot, especially by submission.
If they go the distance look for Moises to secure 3-5 takedowns and solid top control for some points.
Double threat- Add him.
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Sijara Eubanks -400 vs Sarah Moras +300
Biggest line discrepancy on the card and I am on the dog here.
Eubanks is undersized and tends to fade. She is also willing to engage her foe on the mat.
Moras is the bigger girl and pretty good anywhere on the floor, but needs to avoid too much time on her back.
She also has cardio issues, but I was impressed with her last fight.
I think Moras can push Eubanks in this one, get some solid position and steal it.
Bronze play for the big dog.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
While she could score a sub finish or a high takedown based decision, I could pull the trigger here.
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Gabriel Benitez +150 vs Omar Morales -175
Benitez doesn’t get the respect he deserves, but this could be a tough fight for him.
Coming up from FW to face a big LW with a similar skill set, Gabe better be faster and have better cardio.
I feel like Morales can be more impactful, score some TDs, and just do more start to finish.
Silver paly for Morales.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Hunter Azure -188 vs Brian Kelleher +162
Kelleher got a much-needed win last time out, but it didn’t do that much to sway me on his standing in the division.
Azure appears to be a better, younger, less worn version of Boom. Wrestling, some pop, and striking pressure.
Azure is still green which is why he doesn’t rank higher for me.
If you can find Hunter below -200, and there are multiple places out there, you are getting a deal.
Strong Bronze play for Hunter.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario section.
DK Lineup:
Hunter makes the call for a couple of reasons.
1) He can finishes, especially by submission which goes well with #2.
2) Kelleher has been submitted 6 times, knocked out once, and often forgoes his defense.
Add him.
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Chase Sherman -160 vs Ike Villanueva +130
Sherman didn’t look great in the UFC his 3-0 regional was short and against low-level competition.
That alone makes me want to fade him as the favourite.
Villanueva is moving up from LHW and has shown he has the tools like hands speed to make the move count.
Sherman likes to use speed and movement and that is tough against a smaller man.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
The numbers are pretty straight forward here. Sherman has been knocked out 4 times in 6 defeats, including 3 of his5 UFC defeats. Ike has scored knocks out in 13 of his 16 wins including each of his last 4 fights. With this type of return that is enough for me to take a shot here.
2. Hunter Azure/Brian Kelleher
While Kelleher has a high rate of getting finished and Azure is certainly capable of finishing him, I think I will stay away from this bet in exchange for securing a straight-up win any way we can get it.
EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47
24
23
51%
2016 Picks
55
31
24
56%
2017 Picks
47
20
27
43%
2018 Picks
42
25
17
60%
2019 Picks
32
13
19
41%
2020 Picks
23
8
15
35%
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FPO Candidate
1. Andrei Arlovski/Philipe Lins
No play here. While AA predominantly fights to decisions in his recent bouts, his chin is still vulnerable and Lins hits pretty hard. With a new fighter debuting, look for him to come out strong. I will take a win SU anyway we can get t.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.