UFC Fight Night 171: Smith vs Teixeira | Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Night 171: Smith vs Teixeira | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Anthony Smith  to Win -175
+ Ricky Simon  to Win  -170
ODDS: +150
BET: 9u
RETURN: 22.46u

 

BET #2
+ Drew Dober  to Win -125
ODDS: +125
BET: 10u
RETURN: 18u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Thiago Moises  to Win -110
+ Omar Morales  to Win -175
ODDS: +200
BET: 6u
RETURN: 18u

 

BET #2
+ Ben Rothwell  to Win +110
+ Philipe Lins  to Win -160
ODDS: +241
BET: 6u
RETURN: 20.48u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Sarah Moras  to Win +300
ODDS: +300
BET: 3u
RETURN: 12u

 

BET #2
+ Ike Villanueva  to Win +130
+ Hunter Azure  to Win -188
ODDS: +252
BET: 3u
RETURN: 10.57u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Anthony Smith to Win  -175
+ Thiago Moises  to Win -110
+ Ricky Simon  to Win -170
ODDS: +376
BET: 5u
RETURN: 23.82u

 

BET #2
+ Ricky Simon   to Win by Decision +130
Ike Villanueva  to Win by TKO/KO  +235
ODDS: +671
BET: 4u
RETURN: 30.82u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Anthony Smith  to Win -175
+ Drew Dober  to Win  -125
+ Ricky Simon  to Win -170
ODDS: +349
BET: 14u
RETURN: 62.89u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Thiago Moises  to Win -110
+ Omar Morales  to Win -175
+ Ben Rothwell  to Win +110
ODDS: +530
BET: 9u
RETURN: 56.7u

 

BET #2
+ Thiago Moises  to Win -110
+ Omar Morales  to Win -175
+ Philipe Lins  to Win  -160
ODDS: +388
BET: 7u
RETURN: 34.13u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Ike Villanueva  to Win +130
+ Sarah Moras 
to Win +300
+ Hunter Azure  to Win -188
ODDS: +1309
BET: 5u
RETURN: 70.47u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Ricky Simon   to Win by Decision +130
Ike Villanueva  to Win by TKO/KO +235
+ Anthony Smith  to Win -175
ODDS: +1111
BET: 5u
RETURN: 60.54u

 

BET #2
+ Ben Rothwell  to Win +110
+ Drew Dober  to Win -125
+ Philipe Lins  to Win -160
ODDS: +514
BET: 6u
RETURN: 36.86u

 

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Ben Rothwell $7500
+ Drew Dober $8300
+ Ike Villanueva $7800
+ Anthony Smith $9000
+ Thiago Moises $8200
+ Hunter Azure $9100

Spares

+ Marvin Vettori $8900
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Anthony Smith -175 vs Glover Teixeira +150

  • The life after a failed title fight goes on for both men. Glover has made the most of it and Smith did well in his first fight.
  • Getting off to a good start is important, but it isn’t a slam dunk in this case.
  • Keep an eye on the live bets if Smith gets behind early, he tends to rally late and you could cash in.
  • The line has fluctuated a little with some sites as high as -185 on Lionheart, he opened around -165 so we are still in good shape.
  • Glover has been able to capitalize on poor grapplers/poor cardio and/or inexperienced fighters that faltered. I don’t think Smith fits that category.
  • I like Anthony as a Gold bet despite my recent struggles in the Main Event. Might only get 1 inclusion as Glover is tough.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Smith is a proven finisher which is clearly important.
  • Glover can be hurt, has been finishes, notably by Gus after a war, and that is what we could be looking at.
  • Add him.

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Ben Rothwell +110 vs Ovince Saint Preux -138

  • I am not high on OSP. He has talent, but he has developed very little since his Strikeforce days.
  • Moving up to HW might not be the best option for him, especially coming in around 240 pounds.
  • That extra weight will tax his already questionable cardio + Rothwell is 25 pounds heavier and is used to carrying it.
  • This fight was close, but our return on Big Ben is improving with some lines closer to +120.
  • Some uncertainty about OSP at HW prevents me from going on all in.
  • I had Rothwell as a Bronze play, but I feel he is better suited in my Silver Plays.
  • Silver Bet- Rothwell.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • At $7500, Rothwell is affordable and opens some doors for us.
  • We have seen OSP fold with power and he can be finished. Look for him to tire and Ben to start to hurt him.
  • Ben finishes him with power or a possible sub if exhaustion kicks in.
  • Add him.

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Drew Dober -125 vs Alexander Hernandez +100

  • This should be a very fun fight regardless of the outcome.
  • I feel like Hernandez got a lot too soon and is a little uncertain of himself right now.
  • Dober is a vet and at the best point of his career by far- that means a lot.
  • The line is moving in our favour. Dober opened around -140 and is now down to -115.
  • Look for this fight to possibly flip with Dober as the dog by fight time.
  • I like Drew as a Gold play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play. There seems to be a trend here- lots of playable SU options means less focus on Prop bets.

DK Lineup:

  • Dober is a scrapper with decent volume and he has improving power.
  • Hernandez got blasted by Cerrone and finished which suggests that a peak performing Dober could do it as well.
  • At $8300 we get a decent deal.
  • Add him.

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Ray Borg +140 vs Ricky Simon -170

  • Borg made weight which is good for him, but let’s be honest he needs to be at 125. That is where he can contend and quickly.
  • Regardless, this is a tough fight for him. Simon is the more active striker and should be able to either defend the TDs or get up quickly like Kenney did and go back to work.
  • It is worth noting that Simon was the dog at the open and the line has flipped considerably.
  • I still like the style matchup and we are familiar with both fighters.
  • Gold play for Simon who outworks him start to finish.

Prop Bet:

  • Ricky Simon to Win by Decision +130
  • If you want a little more value on this fight this is a solid option
  • Borg is a difficult fighter to finish and Simon isn’t a vaunted finisher.
  • Simon looks to be a new aged Clay Guida- take him on the cards.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Karl Roberson +150 vs Marvin Vettori -175
  • Roberson missed weight today by 1.5 pounds and while fighters that miss weight have done well in their fight, we just saw Stephens get absolutely sparked.
  • Vettori is the more diverse fighter and the more active. I also like how durable he is.
  • If Roberson doesn’t have his grappling game to include he loses a key weapon which is odd considering his background.
  • The line on Vettori is slipping, opening around -150 and now as low as -185.
  • Regardless, he is a solid bet.
  • Gold play for the Italian Dream.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Vettori is a little expensive for my liking, but a submission finish is possible and his volume is solid if not.
  • I have him as a sub most likely to be swapped with Azure who is facing a less durable opponent.

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Andrei Arlovski +130 vs Philipe Lins -160

  • AA just keeps going, but I guess as long as they will book him he will keep coming back.
  • The line is moving nicely and would have been untouchable before around the -205 mark.
  • I don’t expect to see it move too much further in our direction before fight time.
  • 79% of fans on Tapology are on Lins which is a little surprising considering the line movement.
  • Lins, like Rothwell could have been a Bronze play but I bumped PL up to Silver as we do have a good read on AA.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario section.

DK Lineup:

  • I considered  play here, but AA’s ability to avoid the big shot as improved (yes, I saw his last fight)
  • Lins is also a counter striker, so the totals could be lower if this fight goes the distance.
  • This is a pass for me.

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Michael Johnson -110 vs Thiago Moises -110

  • Even money at my book which is fine by me.
  • Moises entered the week around -155, so there is some value here.
  • I feel like MJ is easily the more known name which ways heavily with the betting public and Moises is 1-2 in the UFC.
  • He has lost 2 a pair of good fighters though and MJ’s poor cardio/ grappling defense, and ability to fade from strong starts is too much to bet on here.
  • Moises is a Silver play with a strong top game for the win.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • At $8200 Moises is someone we can include.
  • He can finish and MJ has been finished a lot, especially by submission.
  • If they go the distance look for Moises to secure 3-5 takedowns and solid top control for some points.
  • Double threat- Add him.

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Sijara Eubanks -400 vs Sarah Moras +300

  • Biggest line discrepancy on the card and I am on the dog here.
  • Eubanks is undersized and tends to fade. She is also willing to engage her foe on the mat.
  • Moras is the bigger girl and pretty good anywhere on the floor, but needs to avoid too much time on her back.
  • She also has cardio issues, but I was impressed with her last fight.
  • I think Moras can push Eubanks in this one, get some solid position and steal it.
  • Bronze play for the big dog.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • While she could score a sub finish or a high takedown based decision, I could pull the trigger here.

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Gabriel Benitez +150 vs Omar Morales -175

  • Benitez doesn’t get the respect he deserves, but this could be a tough fight for him.
  • Coming up from FW to face a big LW with a similar skill set, Gabe better be faster and have better cardio.
  • I feel like Morales can be more impactful, score some TDs, and just do more start to finish.
  • Silver paly for Morales.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Hunter Azure -188 vs Brian Kelleher +162

  • Kelleher got a much-needed win last time out, but it didn’t do that much to sway me on his standing in the division.
  • Azure appears to be a better, younger, less worn version of Boom. Wrestling, some pop, and striking pressure.
  • Azure is still green which is why he doesn’t rank higher for me.
  • If you can find Hunter below -200, and there are multiple places out there, you are getting a deal.
  • Strong Bronze play for Hunter.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario section.

DK Lineup:

  • Hunter makes the call for a couple of reasons.
  • 1) He can finishes, especially by submission which goes well with #2.
  • 2) Kelleher has been submitted 6 times, knocked out once, and often forgoes his defense.
  • Add him.

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Chase Sherman -160 vs Ike Villanueva +130

  • Sherman didn’t look great in the UFC his 3-0 regional was short and against low-level competition.
  • That alone makes me want to fade him as the favourite.
  • Villanueva is moving up from LHW and has shown he has the tools like hands speed to make the move count.
  • Sherman likes to use speed and movement and that is tough against a smaller man.
  • I will take the new guy as the dog.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the betting scenario section.

DK Lineup:

  • Villanueva is a triple threat:
  • He can finish.
  • His opponent can be finished.
  • He is sub $8000.
  • That is enough for me- Add him.

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Confidence List

1. Ricky Simon -170

2. Marvin Vettori -175

3. Drew Dober -125

4. Anthony Smith -175

5. Omar Morales -175

====================

6. Ben Rothwell +110

7. Thiago Moises -110

8. Philipe Lins -160

9. Hunter Azure -188

10. Ike Villanueva +130

11. Sarah Moras +300

12.

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Ben Rothwell +110

2. Ike Villanueva +130

3. Sarah Moras +300

4. Thiago Moises -110

5. Drew Dober -125

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Ike Villanueva to Win by TKO/KO +235

The numbers are pretty straight forward here. Sherman has been knocked out 4 times in 6 defeats, including 3 of his5 UFC defeats. Ike has scored knocks out in 13 of his 16 wins including each of his last 4 fights. With this type of return that is enough for me to take a shot here.

2. Hunter Azure/Brian Kelleher

While Kelleher has a high rate of getting finished and Azure is certainly capable of finishing him, I think I will stay away from this bet in exchange for securing a straight-up win any way we can get it.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
7
9
12
3 of 11 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
123925%

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FPO Candidate

1. Andrei Arlovski/Philipe Lins

No play here. While AA predominantly fights to decisions in his recent bouts, his chin is still vulnerable and Lins hits pretty hard. With a new fighter debuting, look for him to come out strong. I will take a win SU anyway we can get t.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
96367%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
52340%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Ben Rothwell +110 vs Ovince Saint Preux -138

2. Drew Dober -125 vs Alexander Hernandez +100

3. Andrei Arlovski +130 vs Philipe Lins -160

4. Michael Johnson -110 vs Thiago Moises -110

5. Chase Sherman -160 vs Ike Villanueva +130

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
63283544%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
62303248%

 

 

 

 

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