UFC on ESPN 8: Harris vs Overeem | Bet Pack Review

UFC on ESPN 8: Harris vs Overeem | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Darren Elkins  to Win -125
ODDS: -125
BET: 9u
RETURN: 16.2u

 

BET #2
+ Edson Barboza  to Win -138
+ Anthony Hernandez  to Win -110
ODDS: +229
BET: 9u
RETURN: 29.63u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Walt Harris  to Win -150
+ Claudia Gadelha  to Win -210
ODDS: +146
BET: 6u
RETURN: 14.76u

 

BET #2
+ Marlon Vera  to Win +150
+ Eryk Anders  to Win +137
ODDS: +493
BET: 5u
RETURN: 29.63u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Matt Brown  to Win +150
ODDS: +150
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12.5u

 

BET #2
+ Don’Tale Mayes  to Win -125
+ Cortney Casey  to Win -160
ODDS: +193
BET: 4u
RETURN: 11.7u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Claudia Gadelha  to Win by Submission +550
ODDS: +550
BET: 5u
RETURN: 32.50u

 

BET #2
+ Darren Elkins  to Win -125
+ Walt Harris  to Win -150
+ Cortney Casey  to Win -160
ODDS: +388
BET: 5u
RETURN: 24.38u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Edson Barboza  to Win -138
+ Anthony Hernandez  to Win -110
+ Darren Elkins  to Win -125
ODDS: +493
BET: 10u
RETURN: 59.26u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Walt Harris  to Win -150
+ Claudia Gadelha  to Win -210
+ Marlon Vera  to Win +150
ODDS: +515
BET: 8u
RETURN: 49.21u

 

BET #2
+ Walt Harris  to Win -150
+ Claudia Gadelha  to Win -210
+ Eryk Anders  to Win +137
ODDS: +483
BET: 8u
RETURN: 46.65u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Don’Tale Mayes  to Win -125
+ Matt Brown  to Win +150
+ Cortney Casey  to Win -160
ODDS: +631
BET: 7u
RETURN: 51.19u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Claudia Gadelha  to Win by Submission +550
+ Darren Elkins  to Win -125
+ Cortney Casey  to Win -160
ODDS: +1801
BET: 5u
RETURN: 95.06u

 

BET #2
+ Marlon Vera  to Win +150
+ Eryk Anders  to Win +137
+ Matt Brown  to Win +150
ODDS: +1381
BET: 5u
RETURN: 74.06u

 

BET #3
+ Don’Tale Mayes  to Win -125
+ Edson Barboza  to Win -138
+ Walt Harris to Win -150
ODDS: +417
BET: 5u
RETURN: 25.87u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Matt Brown $7200
+ Marlon Vera $7300
+ Walt Harris $8700
+ Don’Tale Mays $8400
+ Claudia Gadelha $9100
+ Darren Elkins $8300

Spares

+ Anthony Hernandez $8000
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Alistair Overeem +125 vs Walt Harris -150

  • I said in the breakdown that it is hard to determine where Harris’s head is at, but I feel like it is more likely that he is using it as motivation instead of the tragedy serving as a distraction.
  • Harris can match Overeem in the size category and his hand speed and power are dangerous.
  • Overeem is too willing to shell up against aggressive fighters and Harris will capitalize.
  • The line has stayed pretty constant which is fine and 67% are on Harris at Tapology.
  • I like Harris to pick up the biggest win of his career here.
  • Silver Bet

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Harris has a lot of first-round finishes and carries his power fairly well in longer fights.
  • Overeem has been knocked out 14 times and is not that far removed from a very violent stoppage.
  • Add Walt.

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Claudia Gadelha -210 vs Angela Hill +175

  • There are definite pathways to victory for both fighters, but Angela needs Claudia to fight poorly to aid her.
  • Hill has looked great against non-grappler, but the last time she faced someone dangerous on the mat Markos tapped her.
  • Claudia should be able to take her down multiple times over the first 2 rounds and get ahead, if she can’t tap her out.
  • Solid Silver bet for the Brazilian.

Prop Bet:

  • Claudia Gadelha to Win by Submission +550
  • As I mentioned above, Claudia is a monster on the mat and Hill really struggled with Markos on the floor.
  • This is an incredible return worth taking a shot at.

DK Lineup:

  • At Claudia to your lineup based on 2 scenarios- the aforementioned submission scenario or the multiple TDs that she should be able to pile up in a decision.
  • Add her.

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Edson Barboza -138 vs Dan Ige +110

  • Edson is getting the nod from 59% of bettors on Tapology which isn’t unexpected.
  • And we aren’t getting much movement and that will probably stay that way till fight day.
  • The weight cut is certainly an unknown factor, but he looked good at the weigh-in and big.
  • Ige is a good fighter, but he lacks the wrestling & striking power to replicate the style that has beaten Edson in the past.
  • This is a big fight for Barboza, he shows up.
  • Gold play for Edson.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Eryk Anders +137 vs Krzysztof Jotko -163

  • The split on this one is pretty sizeable in favour of the dog (68% Tapology).
  • I went back and forth, looking at both sides and ultimately felt that Jotko was backing sliding a little and Anders was capable of exploiting that.
  • We were basically at a pick’em at the open around -110 which gives us some value now with Anders hovering between +120 and +140.
  • I feel this is the type of fight that could go to the judges with no one really sure who gets the nod and someone upset regardless of the outcome.
  • Take Anders as a Silver play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • I considered Anders as an option based on Jotko’s KO history and Anders having some power, but I feel this could also be a slower pace, low volume decision.
  • Pass.

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Marlon Vera +150 vs Song Yadong -175

  • This fight appears to be on after the Visa issues and the Faber weigh-in.
  • I was really not impressed with Yadong in his last fight. Even when I went back and watched, he was gifted the draw.
  • Vera is flawed, but he brings a lot of different factors to the table.
  • I like his distance striking to keep Yadong on the outside and his grappling to create issues in close.
  • A sub finish is a real possibility.
  • Silver play for Chito.

Prop Bet:

  • No Bet.

DK Lineup:

  • At $7300 you are getting a fighter that can finish with his hands/ legs or his grappling game.
  • Vera can also pile up some volume in close from the clinch.
  • Add him and it frees up a lot of cash for other purchases.

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Miguel Baeza -175 vs Matt Brown +150

  • I am a little surprised that Brown is the dog here, but I will take it.
  • Baeza is getting the nod from 64% over at Tapology.
  • He is younger, but also vastly inexperienced and lacks good quality opposition.
  • Brown offers too much offense and unless he gets smashed with something big, he should win this with pressure/pace.
  • I will install Brown as a Bronze play- lots of options on this card or this would be a Silver bet.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Similar to Vera, Brown can finish anywhere and can put up some decent value from the clinch.
  • He is also extremely affordable.
  • Add him.

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Anthony Hernandez -110 vs Kevin Holland -110

  • Hernandez opened as a dog and he either even or a slight fav on most sites.
  • He is more aggressive and tends to be more purposeful with his offense.
  • Holland is more go with the flow and allows his opponent to dictate how the fight will transpire- not ideal here.
  • Look for Hernandez’s aggressive power punching to back Holland up and if they hit the mat Hernandez will get the better of the scrambles.
  • Still good value here on Holland who could easily have a sub .500 UFC record.
  • Gold play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Hernandez is a sub that you could move in fluidly.
  • He hits hard, is a submission fighter, and carries a pretty aggressive pace.
  • This fight should be a little sloppy and a lot of fun.
  • Add him.

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Giga Chikadze vs Irwin Rivera

  • As of typing this, the line is not posted yet.
  • I can assume that the return on Giga won’t be great.
  • With the late change, it is easy to pass on this one.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • When I last looked, Giga was still at $7000 which makes him very affordable.
  • It also makes him one of the most own fighters on the card.
  • Pass- if he loses or does score well you will have a huge edge over a larger percentage of your opponents.

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Mara Romero Borella +130 vs Cortney Casey -160

  • We are right in the middle of the line range for CC.
  • She is a better volume striker and pretty physical, even going up a weight class.
  • I’m not a fan of Borella I feel she has just scraped by in some of her fights and is relatively easy to outwork.
  • Casey is getting a sizeable backing on Tapology with 74% backing her to take this one.
  • I had Casey as a Silver play, but feel this could be closer and her track record in long fights is iffy.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Darren Elkins -125 vs Nate Landwehr +100

  • We have seen a pretty big slip here- Elkins opened as the dog but has come all the way down to the -125 mark and is even as low as -155 in some books.
  • Landwehr did not look good in his debut against another debuting fighter. He also got knocked out by a grappler (who does hit hard).
  • Elkins carries a pretty steady pace and Landwehr can be a slow starter.
  • Look for Elkins to rally from his 3 fight losing streak with a sizeable step back in competition.
  • Gold play!

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Elkins could get the finish here. He hits hard enough to hurt an opponent.
  • If not, he has shown he can score a lot of points with takedowns and pace.
  • He is affordable and will be underplayed by many.
  • Add him.

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Don’Tale Mayes -125 vs Rodrigo Nascimento +100

  • I flipped on this pick. At first, I like Rodrigo even though everything was saying Mayes.
  • Fading a fighter with limited long fight experience and who has fought poor level competition is more often then not the play to go.
  • Mayes fought a very good opponent in his debut, so he might be overlooked here a little.
  • Look for Mayes to either get him out of there with strikes early or drag it deep and finish him late.
  • Bronze play for Don’Tale

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Add him.
  • Mayes is a big man fight primarily a grappler with questionable wrestling.
  • Look for Mayes to win by finish.

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Confidence List

1. Darren Elkins -125

2. Claudia Gadelha -210

3. Edson Barboza -138

4. Anthony Hernandez -110

5. Walt Harris -150

====================

6. Marlon Vera +150

7. Eryk Anders +137

8. Matt Brown +150

9. Cortney Casey -160

10. Don’Tale Mayes -125

11.Giga Chikadze

12.

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Marlon Vera +150

2. Matt Brown +150

3. Eryk Anders +137

4. Darren Elkins -125

5. Edson Barboza -138

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Don’Tale Mayes/Rodrigo Nascimento Total Rounds Under 1.5 +112

I don’t play a lot of totals, but this is one I will take a look at. Mayes by knockout or Nascimento by submission- let’s keep both options in play for the Heavies opening for the card.

2. Darren Elkins/Nate Landwehr

This is a No Play for me. I don’t have a strong lean either way.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
7
9
12
3 of 11 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
123925%

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FPO Candidate

1. Miguel Baeza/Matt Brown

The action will be hot and heavy early, let’s sit back and enjoy the violence.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
96367%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
52340%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Alistair Overeem +125 vs Walt Harris -150

2. Edson Barboza -138 vs Dan Ige +110

3. Eryk Anders +137 vs Krzysztof Jotko -163

4. Anthony Hernandez -110 vs Kevin Holland -110

5. Mara Romero Borella +130 vs Cortney Casey -160

6. Darren Elkins -125 vs Nate Landwehr +100

7. Don’Tale Mayes -125 vs Rodrigo Nascimento +100

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
63283544%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
62303248%