When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Darren Elkins
to Win
-125
ODDS:
-125
BET:
9u
RETURN:
16.2u
BET #2
+ Edson Barboza
to Win
-138
+ Anthony Hernandez
to Win
-110
ODDS:
+229
BET:
9u
RETURN:
29.63u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Walt Harris
to Win
-150
+ Claudia Gadelha
to Win
-210
ODDS:
+146
BET:
6u
RETURN:
14.76u
BET #2
+ Marlon Vera
to Win
+150
+ Eryk Anders
to Win
+137
ODDS:
+493
BET:
5u
RETURN:
29.63u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Matt Brown
to Win
+150
ODDS:
+150
BET:
5u
RETURN:
12.5u
BET #2
+ Don’Tale Mayes
to Win
-125
+ Cortney Casey
to Win
-160
ODDS:
+193
BET:
4u
RETURN:
11.7u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Claudia Gadelha
to Win by Submission
+550
ODDS:
+550
BET:
5u
RETURN:
32.50u
BET #2
+ Darren Elkins
to Win
-125
+ Walt Harris
to Win
-150
+ Cortney Casey
to Win
-160
ODDS:
+388
BET:
5u
RETURN:
24.38u
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Edson Barboza
to Win
-138
+ Anthony Hernandez
to Win
-110
+ Darren Elkins
to Win
-125
ODDS:
+493
BET:
10u
RETURN:
59.26u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Walt Harris
to Win
-150
+ Claudia Gadelha
to Win
-210
+ Marlon Vera
to Win
+150
ODDS:
+515
BET:
8u
RETURN:
49.21u
BET #2
+ Walt Harris
to Win
-150
+ Claudia Gadelha
to Win
-210
+ Eryk Anders
to Win
+137
ODDS:
+483
BET:
8u
RETURN:
46.65u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Don’Tale Mayes
to Win
-125
+ Matt Brown
to Win
+150
+ Cortney Casey
to Win
-160
ODDS:
+631
BET:
7u
RETURN:
51.19u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Claudia Gadelha
to Win by Submission
+550
+ Darren Elkins
to Win
-125
+ Cortney Casey
to Win
-160
ODDS:
+1801
BET:
5u
RETURN:
95.06u
BET #2
+ Marlon Vera
to Win
+150
+ Eryk Anders
to Win
+137
+ Matt Brown
to Win
+150
ODDS:
+1381
BET:
5u
RETURN:
74.06u
BET #3
+ Don’Tale Mayes
to Win
-125
+ Edson Barboza
to Win
-138
+ Walt Harris
to Win
-150
ODDS:
+417
BET:
5u
RETURN:
25.87u
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
+ Matt Brown
$7200
+ Marlon Vera
$7300
+ Walt Harris
$8700
+ Don’Tale Mays
$8400
+ Claudia Gadelha
$9100
+ Darren Elkins
$8300
Spares
+ Anthony Hernandez
$8000
+
+
+
Betting Breakdowns
Alistair Overeem +125 vs Walt Harris -150
I said in the breakdown that it is hard to determine where Harris’s head is at, but I feel like it is more likely that he is using it as motivation instead of the tragedy serving as a distraction.
Harris can match Overeem in the size category and his hand speed and power are dangerous.
Overeem is too willing to shell up against aggressive fighters and Harris will capitalize.
The line has stayed pretty constant which is fine and 67% are on Harris at Tapology.
I like Harris to pick up the biggest win of his career here.
Silver Bet
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Harris has a lot of first-round finishes and carries his power fairly well in longer fights.
Overeem has been knocked out 14 times and is not that far removed from a very violent stoppage.
Add Walt.
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Claudia Gadelha -210 vs Angela Hill +175
There are definite pathways to victory for both fighters, but Angela needs Claudia to fight poorly to aid her.
Hill has looked great against non-grappler, but the last time she faced someone dangerous on the mat Markos tapped her.
Claudia should be able to take her down multiple times over the first 2 rounds and get ahead, if she can’t tap her out.
Solid Silver bet for the Brazilian.
Prop Bet:
Claudia Gadelha to Win by Submission +550
As I mentioned above, Claudia is a monster on the mat and Hill really struggled with Markos on the floor.
This is an incredible return worth taking a shot at.
DK Lineup:
At Claudia to your lineup based on 2 scenarios- the aforementioned submission scenario or the multiple TDs that she should be able to pile up in a decision.
Add her.
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Edson Barboza -138 vs Dan Ige +110
Edson is getting the nod from 59% of bettors on Tapology which isn’t unexpected.
And we aren’t getting much movement and that will probably stay that way till fight day.
The weight cut is certainly an unknown factor, but he looked good at the weigh-in and big.
Ige is a good fighter, but he lacks the wrestling & striking power to replicate the style that has beaten Edson in the past.
This is a big fight for Barboza, he shows up.
Gold play for Edson.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Eryk Anders +137 vs Krzysztof Jotko -163
The split on this one is pretty sizeable in favour of the dog (68% Tapology).
I went back and forth, looking at both sides and ultimately felt that Jotko was backing sliding a little and Anders was capable of exploiting that.
We were basically at a pick’em at the open around -110 which gives us some value now with Anders hovering between +120 and +140.
I feel this is the type of fight that could go to the judges with no one really sure who gets the nod and someone upset regardless of the outcome.
Take Anders as a Silver play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
I considered Anders as an option based on Jotko’s KO history and Anders having some power, but I feel this could also be a slower pace, low volume decision.
Pass.
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Marlon Vera +150 vs Song Yadong -175
This fight appears to be on after the Visa issues and the Faber weigh-in.
I was really not impressed with Yadong in his last fight. Even when I went back and watched, he was gifted the draw.
Vera is flawed, but he brings a lot of different factors to the table.
I like his distance striking to keep Yadong on the outside and his grappling to create issues in close.
A sub finish is a real possibility.
Silver play for Chito.
Prop Bet:
No Bet.
DK Lineup:
At $7300 you are getting a fighter that can finish with his hands/ legs or his grappling game.
Vera can also pile up some volume in close from the clinch.
Add him and it frees up a lot of cash for other purchases.
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Miguel Baeza -175 vs Matt Brown +150
I am a little surprised that Brown is the dog here, but I will take it.
Baeza is getting the nod from 64% over at Tapology.
He is younger, but also vastly inexperienced and lacks good quality opposition.
Brown offers too much offense and unless he gets smashed with something big, he should win this with pressure/pace.
I will install Brown as a Bronze play- lots of options on this card or this would be a Silver bet.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
Similar to Vera, Brown can finish anywhere and can put up some decent value from the clinch.
He is also extremely affordable.
Add him.
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Anthony Hernandez -110 vs Kevin Holland -110
Hernandez opened as a dog and he either even or a slight fav on most sites.
He is more aggressive and tends to be more purposeful with his offense.
Holland is more go with the flow and allows his opponent to dictate how the fight will transpire- not ideal here.
Look for Hernandez’s aggressive power punching to back Holland up and if they hit the mat Hernandez will get the better of the scrambles.
Still good value here on Holland who could easily have a sub .500 UFC record.
Gold play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Hernandez is a sub that you could move in fluidly.
He hits hard, is a submission fighter, and carries a pretty aggressive pace.
This fight should be a little sloppy and a lot of fun.
Add him.
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Giga Chikadze vs Irwin Rivera
As of typing this, the line is not posted yet.
I can assume that the return on Giga won’t be great.
With the late change, it is easy to pass on this one.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
When I last looked, Giga was still at $7000 which makes him very affordable.
It also makes him one of the most own fighters on the card.
Pass- if he loses or does score well you will have a huge edge over a larger percentage of your opponents.
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Mara Romero Borella +130 vs Cortney Casey -160
We are right in the middle of the line range for CC.
She is a better volume striker and pretty physical, even going up a weight class.
I’m not a fan of Borella I feel she has just scraped by in some of her fights and is relatively easy to outwork.
Casey is getting a sizeable backing on Tapology with 74% backing her to take this one.
I had Casey as a Silver play, but feel this could be closer and her track record in long fights is iffy.
Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Darren Elkins -125 vs Nate Landwehr +100
We have seen a pretty big slip here- Elkins opened as the dog but has come all the way down to the -125 mark and is even as low as -155 in some books.
Landwehr did not look good in his debut against another debuting fighter. He also got knocked out by a grappler (who does hit hard).
Elkins carries a pretty steady pace and Landwehr can be a slow starter.
Look for Elkins to rally from his 3 fight losing streak with a sizeable step back in competition.
Gold play!
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
Elkins could get the finish here. He hits hard enough to hurt an opponent.
If not, he has shown he can score a lot of points with takedowns and pace.
He is affordable and will be underplayed by many.
Add him.
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Don’Tale Mayes -125 vs Rodrigo Nascimento +100
I flipped on this pick. At first, I like Rodrigo even though everything was saying Mayes.
Fading a fighter with limited long fight experience and who has fought poor level competition is more often then not the play to go.
Mayes fought a very good opponent in his debut, so he might be overlooked here a little.
Look for Mayes to either get him out of there with strikes early or drag it deep and finish him late.
Bronze play for Don’Tale
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
Add him.
Mayes is a big man fight primarily a grappler with questionable wrestling.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
1. Don’Tale Mayes/Rodrigo Nascimento Total Rounds Under 1.5 +112
I don’t play a lot of totals, but this is one I will take a look at. Mayes by knockout or Nascimento by submission- let’s keep both options in play for the Heavies opening for the card.
2. Darren Elkins/Nate Landwehr
This is a No Play for me. I don’t have a strong lean either way.
EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47
24
23
51%
2016 Picks
55
31
24
56%
2017 Picks
47
20
27
43%
2018 Picks
42
25
17
60%
2019 Picks
32
13
19
41%
2020 Picks
23
8
15
35%
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FPO Candidate
1. Miguel Baeza/Matt Brown
The action will be hot and heavy early, let’s sit back and enjoy the violence.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.