UFC on ESPN 7: Overeem vs Rozenstruik | Bet Pack Review
Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack
Parlays & Single Bets
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Cynthia Calvillo | to Win | +117 |  |
| ODDS: | +117 | ||
| BET: | 9u | ||
| RETURN: | 19.53u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Ben Rothwell | to Win | -135 |  |
| + Song Yadong | to Win | -189 | |
| ODDS: | +166 | ||
| BET: | 7u | ||
| RETURN: | 18.63u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Jairzinho Rozenstruik | to Win | +105 | |
| ODDS: | +105 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 12.3u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Aspen Ladd | to Win | -149 | |
| + Rob Font | to Win | -139 | |
| ODDS: | +187 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 14.37u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Bryce Mitchell | to Win | +108 | |
| + Tim Means | to Win | -255 | |
| + Virna Jandiroba | to Win | -255 | |
| ODDS: | +303 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 12.09 |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Joe Solecki | to Win by Decision | +125 | |
| + Billy Quarantillo | to Win Inside the Distance | +115 | |
| ODDS: | +384 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 19.35u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Overeem/ Rozenstruik | Under 1.5 | -122 |  |
| + Tim Means | to Win by Decision | +175 | |
| ODDS: | +400 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 20.02u |
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Ben Rothwell | to Win | -135 | |
| + Song Yadong | to Win | -189 | |
| + Cynthia Calvillo | to Win | +117 | |
| ODDS: | +478 | ||
| BET: | 10u | ||
| RETURN: | 57.76u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Aspen Ladd | to Win | -149 | |
| + Rob Font | to Win | -139 | |
| + Jairzinho Rozenstruik | to Win | +105 | |
| ODDS: | +489 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 47.12u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Bryce Mitchell | to Win | +108 | |
| + Aspen Ladd | to Win | -149 | |
| + Virna Jandiroba | to Win | -255 | |
| ODDS: | +384 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 29.03u |
| BET 2 | |||
| + Bryce Mitchell | to Win | +108 | |
| + Tim Means | to Win | -255 | |
| + Rob Font | to Win | -139 | |
| ODDS: | +398 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 29.87u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Joe Solecki | to Win by Decision | +125 | |
| + Billy Quarantillo | to Win Inside the Distance | +115 | |
| + Ben Rothwell | to Win | -135 | |
| ODDS: | +742 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 42.10u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Overeem/ Rozenstruik | Under 1.5 | -122 | |
| + Tim Means | to Win by Decision | +175 | |
| + Cynthia Calvillo | to Win | +117 | |
| ODDS: | +986 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 65.15 |
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
| + Jairzinho Rozenstruik | $7900 | |
| + Cynthia Calvillo | $7800 | |
| + Billy Quarantillo | $9200 | |
| + Bryce Mitchell | $7900 | |
| + Ben Rothwell | $8600 | |
| + Rob Font | $8500 | |
Spares
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Betting Breakdowns
Alistair Overeem -109 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik +105
There are two key concerns that are preventing me from making JR a Gold play. Rozenstruik is stepping up on short notice which is always a concern. He has momentum but is it too much too soon? It is uncertain at best. Secondly, his fights have been quick. He will hit a level of competition where he can blast his way through them and we don’t know how he will respond. Is Overeem that level? We will find out. I like his speed and power to overcome Overeem’s defense. We get a solid price here. Silver play.
I have JR in my lineup. He is a big hitter with a pension for ending fights quickly. He is also quite affordable. Add him.
Cynthia Calvillo +117 vs Marina Rodriguez -125
I like CC here. I feel like Rodriguez’s recent wins have not aged well whatsoever. Over their last 9 combined UFC fights Rodriguez’s opponents are 1-8. Not good. Calvillo is an up and coming fighter with a strong ground-based skill set. Something that Rodriguez has struggled with. Calvillo opened around the -140 range and has slowly moved to even and even a slight dog on some books. For that reason alone the value is there to back her. Gold play for Calvillo.
Calvillo’s TD heavy attack and submission skills makes her $7800 price tag hard to overlook. Add her.
Ben Rothwell -135 vs Stefan Struve +125
I really like Rothwell here. He is coming in off of 3 losses which tells me he is being severely undervalued. As I mentioned in my prediction, this is a solid place to support a fighter like Rothwell. He is desperate for a win and facing a step back in competition with the public not wanting to get on with a fighter that has lost 3 in a row. Struve wins this fight by submission or if Rothwell fades terribly or if he hits him with a sledgehammer. Rothwell can win by decision, win by knockout, and possibly score a sub in the right scenario. I like “Big” Ben to get it done. Gold play.
Rothwell is affordable, can finish, and is facing an opponent that can be finished. That works for me. Add him.
Yana Kunitskaya +140 vs Aspen Ladd -149
This is a big fight for Ladd. A loss here and she takes a big step back in the ranks. I wasn’t that impressed with a Yana in her win over Reneau and I feel like Ladd is a better version of Reneau. She might not be as skilled with her BJJ, but she is aggressive, bruting, and can do a lot of damage on the mat. Ladd will push her here and Yana can’t match her physicality. Aspen’s stock is low after a devastating main event loss- lets cash in. She is a strong Silver play.
Ladd certainly is an option here, but she is just slightly out of our price range without some adjustments. Pass.
Cody Stamann +174 vs Song Yadong -189
I’m really looking forward to this fight. The way I look at it, Yadong is a better version of Stamann. He is quicker, longer, and a little more diverse than Cody. If Stamann can’t bully you on the cage/mat, he is going to struggle. That will be the case here. He doesn’t have the top control to contain Song and he won’t win the striking exchanges. Gold play for Song.
Cody is not easy to finish and Song is a little expensive. Pass.
Rob Font -139 vs Ricky Simon +130
The first fight of the main card should be a lot of fun and we have had some movement here. Font was around the -165 mark at the opponent. Simon is coming off a tough loss that really hurt his standing in the division. Is that impacting the line here? Possibly. Font has been pretty steady with only front end opposition getting the better of him. Simon needs to really press him here and do it consistently. Font is the bigger hitter with good counter wrestling and length. Font gets the better of it here. Font by decision. Silver play.
I do have Font in my lineup as their is potential for a finish. Add him.
Thiago Alves +235 vs Tim Means -255
Means is the longer and more aggressive strike. Alves is just not what he used to be. That being said, Tim is coming off a nasty finish loss as well and that could impact him here. Means opened around -160 and is far from a sure thing here with an ever diminishing return. This could be a pass or at best a Bronze level inclusion to support our top Bronze play.
Alves is a tough out, but not unstoppable. Means could bag the finish, but he is a little costly at $9000. Pass.
Jacob Kilburn +280 vs Billy Quarantillo -310
This is not a bet I am willing to invest in for this price with a debuting fighter. Pass.
A lot of fights involving newer fighters often end inside the distance. I believe that is the case here. Quarantillo is my big invest me as he throws volume and overwhelms his foe for the finish.
Bryce Mitchell +108 vs Matt Sayles -115
Mitchell opened around -185 and has steadily increased in volume. That is good for us. Some sites have him as a favourite so make sure toy shop around. I like Sayles, by he has struggled with the grappling of other opponents and Mitchell is pretty solid on the floor. Bryce neutralizes Sayles on the floor in the best-case scenario, but this should be a good fight. Bronze play.
Takedowns and a potential submission finish are both promising options. Add him to your lineup.
Joe Solecki -303 vs Matt Wiman +300
This is an easy pass. So much unknown. No thanks.
I considered backing Solecki but he is a little expensive, I will pass.
Virna Jandiroba -255 vs Mallory Martin +255
I was impressed with Jandiroba on short notice against Esparza. Having success versus Carla on the mat is no small accomplishment. She took her down several times which was huge. Here she is on a full camp against a short-notice opponent making her debut. This line took a significant nosedive after the initial open and has stuck here since which I am fine with. I feel like Virna builds on her success and grinds out a win or snares a sub; solid Bronce addon play with Mitchell.
Nothing going on here. Pass.
Makhmud Muradov -400 vs Trevor Smith +365
I don’t want to invest anything here, at least straight up. Muardov is still unknown and Smith is that type of fighter that can overcome an opponent if they don’t put forth there best effort. Pass.
Pass here too. Smith can be finished, but it is not easy.
Confidence List
1. Song Yadong -189
2. Virna Jandiroba -255
3. Ben Rothwell -135
4. Cynthia Calvillo +117
5. Aspen Ladd -149
====================
6. Virna Jandiroba -255
7. Jairzinho Rozenstruik +105
8. Rob Font -139
9. Billy Quarantillo -310
10. Bryce Mitchell +108
11. Tim Means -255
12. Joe Solecki -303
13. Makhmud Muradov -400
Value Bet List
1. Cynthia Calvillo +117
2. Jairzinho Rozenstruik +105
3. Bryce Mitchell +108
4. Ben Rothwell -135
5. Rob Font -139
Counter Bets
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Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
C. Daniel Cormier
#1 Jon Jones
EPU Candidate(s)
1. Virna Jandiroba/Mallory Martin
I could see a grind to a decision or a submission win for Virna. Pass.
2. Makhmud Muradov to Win by Decision +145
Smith is pretty darn tough and hasn’t been finished since 2014. Muradov is a finisher, but that often dries up at this level- at least for a bit. Muradov will use a lot of movement and try to avoid sitting down too much on his offense to avoid getting taken down.
| EPU | ||||
| 47 | 24 | 23 | 51% | |
| 55 | 31 | 24 | 56% | |
| 47 | 20 | 27 | 43% | |
| 42 | 25 | 17 | 60% | |
| 32 | 13 | 19 | 41% | |
| 23 | 8 | 15 | 35% | |
FPO Candidate
1. Tim Means to Win by Decision +175
I think we get back to the FPO norm here. Both fighters are solid strikers and while both can be finished, I see their skills matching up well offensively and defensively. As veteran fighters, both men have seen a lot and unless this bout divulges into an all-out firefight we most likely get a solid sequence of exchanges until we hit the cards.
| Final Prelim | ||||
| 46 | ||||
| 36 | 16 | 20 | 44% | |
| 39 | 26 | 13 | 67% | |
| 34 | 25 | 9 | 74% | |
| 33 | 22 | 11 | 67% | |
| 38 | 23 | 15 | 61% | |
| 19 | 11 | 8 | 58% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 35 | 17 | 18 | 49% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 31 | 13 | 18 | 42% | |
| 30 | 9 | 21 | 30% | |
| 10 | 4 | 6 | 40% |
HEF Candidate(s)
1. Alistair Overeem -109 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik +105
2. Cynthia Calvillo +117 vs Marina Rodriguez -125
3. Ben Rothwell -135 vs Stefan Struve +125
4. Yana Kunitskaya +140 vs Aspen Ladd -149
5. Rob Font -139 vs Ricky Simon +130
6. Bryce Mitchell +108 vs Matt Sayles -115
| HEFs | ||||
| 177 | 93 | 84 | 53% | |
| 212 | 106 | 106 | 50% | |
| 179 | 110 | 69 | 61% | |
| 192 | 100 | 92 | 52% | |
| 217 | 100 | 117 | 46% | |
| 102 | 52 | 50 | 51% | |
| 181 | 97 | 84 | 54% | |
| 212 | 108 | 104 | 51% | |
| 179 | 87 | 92 | 49% | |
| 192 | 95 | 97 | 49% | |
| 211 | 110 | 101 | 52% | |
| 102 | 46 | 56 | 45% |
Prop Bets
Alistair Overeem/Jairzinho Rozenstruik Total Rounds Under 1.5 -122
This outcome keeps both fighters’ skills and vulnerabilities working in our favour. My #1 concern here is AO’s defensive game. Overeem’s best bet here is to take JR down and GNP him like he did Pavlovich. That most likely happens in the first 5 minutes to avoid trading on the feet. JR’s finishing pedigree is well known and giving him 7.5 minutes to get the finish is a solid play. Play the Under.
Thiago Alves/Tim Means
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Billy Quarantillo to Win Inside the Distance +115
I really like the pace that Quarantillo carries and with his opponent coming in on short notice a finish is def possible. My big concern was how he will end it as he has a pretty even finishing total. Let’s keep them both in play.
Joe Solecki to Win by Decision +125
I wouldn’t be shocked to see a finish in this fight, but Wiman’s BJJ is pretty solid and he is in a better spot than his debut. Solecki should be able to routinely out position him here, but not get the finish. We will see the cards.
Virna Jandiroba/Mallory MartinSee the Betting Scenario Section.
Makhmud Muradov/Trevor Smith
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.
