UFC on ESPN 7: Overeem vs Rozenstruik | Bet Pack Review

UFC on ESPN 7: Overeem vs Rozenstruik | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Cynthia Calvillo  to Win +117
ODDS: +117
BET: 9u
RETURN: 19.53u

 

BET #2
+ Ben Rothwell  to Win -135
+ Song Yadong  to Win -189
ODDS: +166
BET: 7u
RETURN: 18.63u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik  to Win +105
ODDS: +105
BET: 6u
RETURN: 12.3u

 

BET #2
+ Aspen Ladd  to Win -149
+ Rob Font  to Win -139
ODDS: +187
BET: 5u
RETURN: 14.37u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Bryce Mitchell  to Win +108
+ Tim Means to Win  -255
+ Virna Jandiroba  to Win -255
ODDS: +303
BET: 3u
RETURN: 12.09

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Joe Solecki  to Win by Decision +125
+ Billy Quarantillo to Win Inside the Distance +115
ODDS: +384
BET: 4u
RETURN: 19.35u

 

BET #2
+ Overeem/ Rozenstruik  Under 1.5 -122
+ Tim Means  to Win by Decision +175
ODDS: +400
BET: 4u
RETURN: 20.02u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Ben Rothwell  to Win -135
+ Song Yadong  to Win -189
+ Cynthia Calvillo  to Win +117
ODDS: +478
BET: 10u
RETURN: 57.76u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Aspen Ladd  to Win -149
+ Rob Font  to Win -139
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik  to Win +105
ODDS: +489
BET: 8u
RETURN: 47.12u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Bryce Mitchell  to Win +108
+ Aspen Ladd  to Win -149
+ Virna Jandiroba  to Win -255
ODDS: +384
BET: 6u
RETURN: 29.03u

 

BET 2
+ Bryce Mitchell  to Win +108
+ Tim Means to Win  -255
+ Rob Font  to Win -139
ODDS: +398
BET: 6u
RETURN: 29.87u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Joe Solecki  to Win by Decision +125
+ Billy Quarantillo to Win Inside the Distance +115
+ Ben Rothwell  to Win -135
ODDS: +742
BET: 5u
RETURN: 42.10u

BET #2
+ Overeem/ Rozenstruik  Under 1.5 -122
+ Tim Means  to Win by Decision +175
+ Cynthia Calvillo  to Win +117
ODDS: +986
BET: 6u
RETURN: 65.15

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik $7900
+ Cynthia Calvillo $7800
+ Billy Quarantillo $9200
+ Bryce Mitchell $7900
+ Ben Rothwell $8600
+ Rob Font $8500

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Alistair Overeem -109 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik +105

There are two key concerns that are preventing me from making JR a Gold play. Rozenstruik is stepping up on short notice which is always a concern. He has momentum but is it too much too soon? It is uncertain at best. Secondly, his fights have been quick. He will hit a level of competition where he can blast his way through them and we don’t know how he will respond. Is Overeem that level? We will find out. I like his speed and power to overcome Overeem’s defense. We get a solid price here. Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have JR in my lineup. He is a big hitter with a pension for ending fights quickly. He is also quite affordable. Add him.

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Cynthia Calvillo +117 vs Marina Rodriguez -125

I like CC here. I feel like Rodriguez’s recent wins have not aged well whatsoever. Over their last 9 combined UFC fights Rodriguez’s opponents are 1-8. Not good. Calvillo is an up and coming fighter with a strong ground-based skill set. Something that Rodriguez has struggled with. Calvillo opened around the -140 range and has slowly moved to even and even a slight dog on some books. For that reason alone the value is there to back her. Gold play for Calvillo.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Calvillo’s TD heavy attack and submission skills makes her $7800 price tag hard to overlook. Add her.

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Ben Rothwell -135 vs Stefan Struve +125

I really like Rothwell here. He is coming in off of 3 losses which tells me he is being severely undervalued. As I mentioned in my prediction, this is a solid place to support a fighter like Rothwell. He is desperate for a win and facing a step back in competition with the public not wanting to get on with a fighter that has lost 3 in a row. Struve wins this fight by submission or if Rothwell fades terribly or if he hits him with a sledgehammer. Rothwell can win by decision, win by knockout, and possibly score a sub in the right scenario. I like “Big” Ben to get it done. Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Rothwell is affordable, can finish, and is facing an opponent that can be finished. That works for me. Add him.

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Yana Kunitskaya +140 vs Aspen Ladd -149

This is a big fight for Ladd. A loss here and she takes a big step back in the ranks. I wasn’t that impressed with a Yana in her win over Reneau and I feel like Ladd is a better version of Reneau. She might not be as skilled with her BJJ, but she is aggressive, bruting, and can do a lot of damage on the mat. Ladd will push her here and Yana can’t match her physicality. Aspen’s stock is low after a devastating main event loss- lets cash in. She is a strong Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Ladd certainly is an option here, but she is just slightly out of our price range without some adjustments. Pass.

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Cody Stamann +174 vs Song Yadong -189

I’m really looking forward to this fight. The way I look at it, Yadong is a better version of Stamann. He is quicker, longer, and a little more diverse than Cody. If Stamann can’t bully you on the cage/mat, he is going to struggle. That will be the case here. He doesn’t have the top control to contain Song and he won’t win the striking exchanges. Gold play for Song.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Cody is not easy to finish and Song is a little expensive. Pass.

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Rob Font -139 vs Ricky Simon +130

The first fight of the main card should be a lot of fun and we have had some movement here. Font was around the -165 mark at the opponent. Simon is coming off a tough loss that really hurt his standing in the division. Is that impacting the line here? Possibly. Font has been pretty steady with only front end opposition getting the better of him. Simon needs to really press him here and do it consistently. Font is the bigger hitter with good counter wrestling and length.  Font gets the better of it here. Font by decision. Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do have Font in my lineup as their is potential for a finish. Add him.

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Thiago Alves +235 vs Tim Means -255

Means is the longer and more aggressive strike. Alves is just not what he used to be. That being said, Tim is coming off a nasty finish loss as well and that could impact him here. Means opened around -160 and is far from a sure thing here with an ever diminishing return. This could be a pass or at best a Bronze level inclusion to support our top Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Alves is a tough out, but not unstoppable. Means could bag the finish, but he is a little costly at $9000. Pass.

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Jacob Kilburn +280 vs Billy Quarantillo -310

This is not a bet I am willing to invest in for this price with a debuting fighter. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

A lot of fights involving newer fighters often end inside the distance. I believe that is the case here. Quarantillo is my big invest me as he throws volume and overwhelms his foe for the finish.

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Bryce Mitchell +108 vs Matt Sayles -115

Mitchell opened around -185 and has steadily increased in volume. That is good for us. Some sites have him as a favourite so make sure toy shop around. I like Sayles, by he has struggled with the grappling of other opponents and Mitchell is pretty solid on the floor. Bryce neutralizes Sayles on the floor in the best-case scenario, but this should be a good fight. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Takedowns and a potential submission finish are both promising options. Add him to your lineup.

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Joe Solecki -303 vs Matt Wiman +300

This is an easy pass. So much unknown. No thanks.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I considered backing Solecki but he is a little expensive, I will pass.

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Virna Jandiroba -255 vs Mallory Martin +255

I was impressed with Jandiroba on short notice against Esparza. Having success versus Carla on the mat is no small accomplishment. She took her down several times which was huge. Here she is on a full camp against a short-notice opponent making her debut. This line took a significant nosedive after the initial open and has stuck here since which I am fine with. I feel like Virna builds on her success and grinds out a win or snares a sub; solid Bronce addon play with Mitchell.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing going on here. Pass.

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Makhmud Muradov -400 vs Trevor Smith +365

I don’t want to invest anything here, at least straight up. Muardov is still unknown and Smith is that type of fighter that can overcome an opponent if they don’t put forth there best effort. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Pass here too. Smith can be finished, but it is not easy.

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Confidence List

1. Song Yadong -189

2. Virna Jandiroba -255

3. Ben Rothwell -135

4. Cynthia Calvillo +117

5. Aspen Ladd -149

====================

6. Virna Jandiroba -255

7. Jairzinho Rozenstruik +105

8. Rob Font -139

9. Billy Quarantillo -310

10. Bryce Mitchell +108

11. Tim Means -255

12. Joe Solecki -303

13. Makhmud Muradov -400

 

Value Bet List

1. Cynthia Calvillo +117

2. Jairzinho Rozenstruik +105

3. Bryce Mitchell +108

4. Ben Rothwell -135

5. Rob Font -139

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Virna Jandiroba/Mallory Martin

I could see a grind to a decision or a submission win for Virna. Pass.

2. Makhmud Muradov to Win by Decision +145

Smith is pretty darn tough and hasn’t been finished since 2014. Muradov is a finisher, but that often dries up at this level- at least for a bit. Muradov will use a lot of movement and try to avoid sitting down too much on his offense to avoid getting taken down.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
5
6
7
1 of 7 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
72529%

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FPO Candidate

1. Tim Means to Win by Decision +175

I think we get back to the FPO norm here. Both fighters are solid strikers and while both can be finished, I see their skills matching up well offensively and defensively. As veteran fighters, both men have seen a lot and unless this bout divulges into an all-out firefight we most likely get a solid sequence of exchanges until we hit the cards.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
53260%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
32167%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Alistair Overeem -109 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik +105

2. Cynthia Calvillo +117 vs Marina Rodriguez -125

3. Ben Rothwell -135 vs Stefan Struve +125

4. Yana Kunitskaya +140 vs Aspen Ladd -149

5. Rob Font -139 vs Ricky Simon +130

6. Bryce Mitchell +108 vs Matt Sayles -115

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
40192148%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
40192148%

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Prop Bets

Alistair Overeem/Jairzinho Rozenstruik Total Rounds Under 1.5 -122

This outcome keeps both fighters’ skills and vulnerabilities working in our favour. My #1 concern here is AO’s defensive game. Overeem’s best bet here is to take JR down and GNP him like he did Pavlovich. That most likely happens in the first 5 minutes to avoid trading on the feet. JR’s finishing pedigree is well known and giving him 7.5 minutes to get the finish is a solid play. Play the Under.

Thiago Alves/Tim Means

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Billy Quarantillo to Win Inside the Distance +115

I really like the pace that Quarantillo carries and with his opponent coming in on short notice a finish is def possible. My big concern was how he will end it as he has a pretty even finishing total. Let’s keep them both in play.

Joe Solecki to Win by Decision +125

I wouldn’t be shocked to see a finish in this fight, but Wiman’s BJJ is pretty solid and he is in a better spot than his debut. Solecki should be able to routinely out position him here, but not get the finish. We will see the cards.

Virna Jandiroba/Mallory Martin

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Makhmud Muradov/Trevor Smith

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

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