UFC on ESPN 6: Reyes vs Weidman | Bet Pack Review

UFC on ESPN 6: Reyes vs Weidman | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Gillian Robertson  to Win +110
ODDS: +110
BET: 8u
RETURN: 16.8u

 

BET #2
+ Dominick Reyes  to Win -163
+ Manny Bermudez  to Win -160
ODDS: +162
BET: 8u
RETURN: 20.98u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Yair Rodriguez  to Win -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 6u
RETURN: 11.45u

 

BET #2
+ Deron Winn  to Win -138
+ Kyle Bochniak  to Win -138
ODDS: +197
BET: 4u
RETURN: 11.9u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Brendan Allen  to Win +140
ODDS: +140
BET: 3u
RETURN: 7.2u

 

BET #2
+ Jonathan Pearce  to Win -160
+ Boston Salmon  to Win -163
+ Tanner Boser  to Win -138
ODDS: +352
BET: 3u
RETURN: 13.57u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Sean Brady  to Win by Decision +125
ODDS: +125
BET: 3u
RETURN: 6.75u

 

BET #2
+ Manny Bermudez  to Win by Sub +185
+ Greg Hardy  to Win by KO/TKO -195
ODDS: +331
BET: 3u
RETURN: 12.93u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Dominick Reyes  to Win -163
+ Manny Bermudez  to Win -160
+ Gillian Robertson  to Win +110
ODDS: +451
BET: 10u
RETURN: 55.06u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Deron Winn  to Win -138
+ Kyle Bochniak  to Win -138
+ Yair Rodriguez 
to Win -110
ODDS: +468
BET: 7u
RETURN: 39.75u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Boston Salmon  to Win -163
+ Brendan Allen  to Win +140
+ Dominick Reyes  to Win -163
ODDS: +525
BET: 5u
RETURN: 31.24u

 

BET #2
+ Jonathan Pearce  to Win -160
+ Gillian Robertson  to Win +110
+ Tanner Boser  to Win -138
ODDS: +489
BET: 5u
RETURN: 29.43u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Sean Brady  to Win by Decision +125
+ Yair Rodriguez  to Win -110
+ Costa/ Salmon    Under 2.5 -125
ODDS: +673
BET: 4u
RETURN: 30.93u

 

BET #2
+ Manny Bermudez  to Win by Sub +185
+ Greg Hardy  to Win by KO/TKO -195
+ Kyle Bochniak  to Win -138
ODDS: +644
BET: 4u
RETURN: 29.74u

 

BET #3
+ Dominick Reyes  to Win -163
+ Yair Rodriguez  to Win -110
+ Jonathan Pearce  to Win -160
+ Boston Salmon  to Win -163
ODDS: +708
BET: 6u
RETURN: 48.46u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Dominick Reyes $8800
+ Greg Hardy $9300
+ Jonathan Pearce $8500
+ Gillian Robertson $7900
+ Brendan Allen $7300
+ Deron Winn $8200

Spares

+ Yair Rodriguez $8100
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Dominick Reyes -163 vs Chris Weidman +137

The night ends with a former MW champ attempt to resurrect his career at LHW. I don’t see it going well. Yes, Reyes isn’t an established veteran like the fighters that have been taking CW out at MW, but he is a capable fighter on the rise. We are getting a much better return than it opened (-185) and even better than I capped it at which was closer to -225. I just don’t see Weidman’s skillset working well against bigger men. Reyes is getting a step up, but I think he shows up here Gold play for DR.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Reyes also gets the call to my Fantasy team. Weidman has been finished in each of his last 4 fights and as we saw with Rockhold, fighting bigger men is usually not the answer here. I like Reyes to get back to his finishing ways- get him in your lineup.

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Yair Rodriguez -110 vs Jeremy Stephens -110

There are so many opinions about this unique scenario. A location change that will have an impact on this fight. Dropping from 5 rounds to 3 rounds. The development of some nastiest with all of the accusations. How does all of this play out? We can only do so much. Yair was sitting around -165 at home and I had Stephens. Now they are almost even, the states, and I like Yair. I felt Stephens was going to be able to wear on YR and might have lost a round or 2 early, but started to find success in R4 and 5. He won’t have that extra time now. Look for JS to move forward but eat kicks and counters as he tries to cover the distance. This should be a fun fight- the more technical fighter does more. Strong Silver play for Yair.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Rodriguez on my bench, but ready to come in. He hits hard and will be fired up here. The only reason he isn’t in my #1 lineup is because of how tough Jeremy is.

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Greg Hardy -300 vs Ben Sosoli +240

I won’t be playing this fight straight up. Sosoli is tough, but you don’t want to try and beat Hardy by being tough. That is what he will attempt here. I will look at a prop bet, but nothing straight up.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Does this really need to be explained? Hardy is a killer and Sosoli is going to meet him in the middle cage take his best shots. Bad idea. Add him to the lineup.

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Joe Lauzon +130 vs Jonathan Pearce -160

Welcome back to Joe Lauzon. There is just so much going against Joe here. The only thing I can see here is that Pearce has some questionable submission defense. If Joe can catch him early he can win. Conversely, Pearce is durable and carries a steady pace that will overwhelm a fading Lauzon. He opened around -155, I am cool with his line. As much as I feel like Pearce could be a Silver or Gold play- this is his debut. I can’t move him above the Bronze section until we see more.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do love him as a Fantasy play. He is only going to cost you $8500 and his volume should be a producer and a finish is very possible. Add him.

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Maycee Barber -138 vs Gillian Robertson +110

Here is a play I really like. Barber got the rub. The UFC started pushing her as a potential future star early in her run. She nearly got exposed last time out. Barber is a bully in the cage which can be quite effective in WMMA. The problems start to show up when she runs into a skilled fighter that she can’t overwhelm. That is Robertson. The Canadian is very good on the floor and will capitalize on Barber’s willingness to push forward. Gillian opened around +170, we aren’t getting that now, but I still like her as a dog. Gold play for the Savage.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also like her at $7900 in your lineup. She has finished all 4 of her UFC wins and even if she doesn’t get the stoppage here, her TD happy offense will produce points. Add her.

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Darren Stewart +110 vs Deron Winn -138

Winn is thick but he is incredibly short for the division so missing weight is just crazy. He can’t go to 205, he should be looking at trying to making 170. I am a little concerned that missing weight could play into the Stewart scenario of surviving early and finishing Winn late once he starts to tire. Winn was a slight dog at the open which I find a little odd. Winn is more active and has the wrestling to fall back on. Stewart’s power is his key to victory. That is a much more limited scenario. Silver play for Deron.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Winn has been a finisher. I don’t know if he can do that here, but look for his striking volume and takedowns to produce points. Maybe we do get a stoppage with Stewart distracted by the threat of the takedown. Add him.

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Manny Bermudez -160 vs Charles Rosa +130

Manny, Manny, Manny. He is in a must-win situation here. He is talented, but back to back losses with back to back to back weight fails (especially after moving up) and the UFC could cut him if the lays a goose egg here. Rosa has been gone for a long time. That isn’t good. He also gets taken down a lot. That isn’t good either. I feel like Bermudez will pressure him on the feet and create scrambles that he wins on the mat. I like Bermudez with his back against the wall to rebound at home against the fighter with a lot of potential ring rust and a sub-.500 UFC record. Gold play for Manny.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Manny could get the finish here, but he just doesn’t fit in our lineup. He is too expensive to be a low-cost pick and not worth the cost based on his potential finishing skills compared to others on my list. Pass.

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Diana Belbita +380 vs Molly McCann -500

You can look elsewhere. There is nothing I want to do with this fight. I thought about McCann via sub as it should pay a lot. She seems committed to getting a submission win and DB is vulnerable on the floor. I will look at it briefly. Nothing else.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Please see above. Pass.

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Kyle Bochniak -138 vs Sean Woodson +110

Woodson is so tall for the division and oddly built with really long legs. He also didn’t look good in his Contenders fight. He landed a few jabs, got dominated on the mat, and scored a knockout. Bochniak has fought some decent competition and this is a step back. If he can get by the reach which he gained experience with against Zabit, he should be able to take Woodson down with regularity. The line is moving in our favour with KB sitting at -170 when he opened. I like him here at home in a must-win. Silver Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Bochniak is a grinder. His volume isn’t amazing. The only thing that is interesting here is the potential that he grabs a bunch of takedowns or a possible sub. Pass.

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Randy Costa +137 vs Boston Salmon -163

Talk about disappointing debuts. Both guys came up short in their first fights- both getting finished. I’m not sold on Costa. All of his wins were in the first round and all very early. That is not a great recipe for success when you take that next step. If he can’t get Salmon out of there quickly, he will fade and Salmon hits hard enough to get him out of there. Fading Costa- Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

He is too expensive for a relatively unknown fighter.

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Sean Brady -250 vs Court McGee +200

I haven’t posted a counter bet in a while. Court might be worth a look simply because I don’t see him as this big of a dog. Brady should win by just doing more. I won’t touch Brady here. He needs to be on his game against a fighter that offer a similar approach. Volume, takedowns, and not a lot of finishing skills. This will be a fun fight either way. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

We are most likely going the distance. Pass.

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Brendan Allen +140 vs Kevin Holland -170

Holland is talented, but he makes poor choices. Now he is facing an opponent that has the ability to capitalize on his poor decision making and KH is coming in on short notice. Holland’s TDD is not good, but with the exception of his debut- he has been able to work his way out of it. That will be tough here. Allen is good on the ground and he is a teammate of GM3- the guy that narrowly lost a grappling based fight with Holland. I like Allen to edge him out here in a close fight with BA simply owning more top control time. Bronze play for the new guy.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Allen gets the call for my FA lineup. He is very cheap and should be able to produce a lot of takedown related points. His inclusion opens up cash elsewhere. Add him.

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Tanner Boser -138 vs Daniel Spitz +110

Boser was a sizeable dog. That isn’t the case anymore. I feel like Spitz just does less. Boser is going to move forward, land leg kicks and chip away. Spitz moves a lot, doesn’t throw a lot, and gets tired. Not a great combo for a HW. Boser is debuting, I think at this price he warrants a Bronze play. I considered taking a pass her with the value drop, but honestly, I had Boser as the favourite here so this line is still workable.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Boser could score the finish, but I think this one is better left alone. Pass.

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Confidence List

1. Greg Hardy -300

2. Dominick Reyes -163

3. Molly McCann -500

4. Gillian Robertson +110

5. Manny Bermudez -160

====================

6. Yair Rodriguez -110

7. Deron Winn -138

8. Tanner Boser -138

9. Jonathan Pearce -160

10. Kyle Bochniak -138

11. Sean Brady -250

12. Boston Salmon -163

13. Brendan Allen +140

 

Value Bet List

1. Gillian Robertson +110

2. Yair Rodriguez -110

3. Dominick Reyes -163

4. Manny Bermudez -160

5. Brendan Allen +140

 

 

Counter Bets

1. Court McGee +200

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Brendan Allen/Kevin Holland

I think I will pass here. There are submission skills on both sides, but I see this more as a positional battle.

2. Tanner Boser/Daniel Spitz

Boser a paced fighter. I don’t see him coming out looking to smash Spitz, he could, but I think he is just as likely to chip away at him for 15-minutes. pass.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
43
13 of 34 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
28111739%

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FPO Candidate

1. Manny Bermudez to Win by Submission +185

He wasn’t able to get it last fight and lost as a result. With Rosa having TDD issues I expect Bermudez to take him down with regularity and that should create plenty of opportunities to get the finish. I will fade the scenario here and bet the sub.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
33211264%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2691735%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Dominick Reyes -163 vs Chris Weidman +137

2. Yair Rodriguez -110 vs Jeremy Stephens -110

3. Joe Lauzon +130 vs Jonathan Pearce -160

4. Maycee Barber -138 vs Gillian Robertson +110

5. Darren Stewart +110 vs Deron Winn -138

6. Manny Bermudez -160 vs Charles Rosa +130

7. Kyle Bochniak -138 vs Sean Woodson +110

8. Randy Costa +137 vs Boston Salmon -163

9. Tanner Boser -138 vs Daniel Spitz +110

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
190919948%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
185929350%

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Prop Bets

Greg Hardy to Win by KO/TKO -195

I figure this play would be around -250 and still could be. Sosoli is tough, but that won’t be a good thing here. Hardy should finish him.

Manny Bermudez/Charles Rosa 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Molly McCann to Win Inside the Distance +185

I lied, kinda of. This play keeps the sub prop in play, but also allows us to capitalize on a TKO finish. I could see McCann getting back control and sinking in an RNC or pounding out a finish. If you want to be involved in this fight this is your best bet.

Randy Costa/Boston Salmon Total Rounds Under 2.5 -125

I feel like either man can get the finish here so the 2.5 rounds is pretty nice. Costa doesn’t have a lot of long fight experience which is a bonus when looking to score on the under. Both hit hard. This should be fun. Take the under.

Sean Brady to Win by Decision +125

Brady has been heavily criticized for his lack of finishes on the regional scene. That usually doesn’t get easier early in your UFC career. Court can be hurt and has been finished, but for the most part he is durable. I see this one going the distance. I like this return much better than Brady straight up.

Brendan Allen/Kevin Holland

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Tanner Boser/Daniel Spitz

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

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