UFC on ESPN 5: Covington vs Lawler | Post-Fight Bet Pack Review

UFC on ESPN 5: Covington vs Lawler | Post-Fight Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Antonina Shevchenko  to Win -150
+ Nasrat Haqparast  to Win -250
ODDS: +133
BET: 10u
RETURN: 23.33

 

BET #2
+ Jim Miller  to Win -160
+ Mara Romero Borella  to Win -200
ODDS: +144
BET: 8u
RETURN: 19.5u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Robbie Lawler  to Win +187
ODDS: +187
BET: 5u
RETURN: 14.35u

 

BET #2
+ Trevin Giles  to Win -170
+ Salim Touahri  to Win -125
ODDS: +186
BET: 5u
RETURN: 14.29u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Matt Schnell  to Win +110
ODDS: +110
BET: 4u
RETURN: 8.4u

 

BET #2
+ Kennedy Nzechukwu  to Win +110
+ Hannah Goldy  to Win -138
ODDS: +262
BET: 4u
RETURN: 14.49u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Jim Miller  to Win by Submission +250
ODDS: +250
BET: 3u
RETURN: 10.5u

 

BET #2
+ Antonina Shevchenko  to Win by Decision +125
+ Mara Romero Borella  to Win by Decision -105
ODDS: +339
BET: 4u
RETURN: 17.57u

BET #3
+ Trevin Giles to Win inside the Distance +150
+ Salim Touahri  to Win by Decision +230
ODDS: +725
BET: 3u
RETURN: 24.75u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Antonina Shevchenko  to Win -150
+ Nasrat Haqparast  to Win -250
+ Jim Miller  to Win -160
ODDS: +279
BET: 10u
RETURN: 37.92u

 

BET #2
+ Antonina Shevchenko  to Win -150
+ Nasrat Haqparast  to Win -250
+ Mara Romero Borella  to Win -200
ODDS: +250
BET: 8u
RETURN: 28u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Trevin Giles  to Win -170
+ Salim Touahri  to Win -125
+ Robbie Lawler 
to Win +187
ODDS: +720
BET: 6u
RETURN: 49.23u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Kennedy Nzechukwu  to Win +110
+ Hannah Goldy  to Win -138
+ Matt Schnell 
to Win +110
ODDS: +661
BET: 5u
RETURN: 38.03u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Antonina Shevchenko  to Win by Decision +125
+ Mara Romero Borella  to Win by Decision -105
+ Salim Touahri  to Win by Decision +230
ODDS: +1350
BET: 5u
RETURN: 72.48u

BET #2
+ Jim Miller  to Win by Submission +250
+ Trevin Giles to Win inside the Distance +150
+ Claudio Silva  to Win by Submission -150
ODDS: +1358
BET: 5u
RETURN: 72.92u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Robbie Lawler $7200
+ Trevin Giles $8500
+ Kenndy Nzechukwu $7800
+ Claudio Silva $9400
+ Matt Schnell $8000
+ Jim Miller $8900

Spares

+ Salim Touahri $8300
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Colby Covington -225 vs Robbie Lawler +187

On the heels of the Lawler/Askren and then Masvidal/Askren fights, I think a lot of bettors are looking at wrestlers and realizing the importance of their striking. Without it, blindly moving forward to wrestle could have devastating consequences. At the open, Lawler came in around +135, so the movement is in our favour. Tapology currently has 59% of predictors backing Covington which is fine. I feel like Lawler is in a good spot here. Covington had a lot of trouble against Maia, a southpaw that came out aggressive on the feet. Look for Lawler to do the same. We really haven’t see Colby take on a dangerous striker with decent defensive wrestling. Lawler turns this into a brawl and wins it on the strength of a superior striking attack- Silva Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Lawler is extremely affordable at $7200. His picks sets up the rest of our lineup nicely. He will either score with volume or put Covington down and add those finish points- maybe a combo of both. Add him.

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Clay Guida +130 vs Jim Miller -160

The line on Miller is improving, with some sites offering his as low as -145. For me, Miller is a more refined version of Clay. Less eradicate and more diversified. My biggest concern is that Guida goes hard early and Miller falters. Miller’s track record is not good at home either, but I feel like the UFC is giving him a very winnable fight here. Clay looked rough against Penn early. If BJ didn’t fade, he might have got the win. Miller is a solid pick here and  I like him at the top- Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also have Jim in my Fantasy lineup. Clay’s durability isn’t what it was and Jim’s submission game is solid. If Miller can clip Guida or force him into a desperation shot, a submission win for Jimmy might not be too far behind.

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Nasrat Haqparast -250 vs Joaquim Silva +200

Haqparast isn’t quite where he was at the open, but the drop in value has been minimal. Looking at Tapology, we are seeing 83% in favour of NH which isn’t that shocking. Silva is like a bazooka, dangerous, but if you can avoid his big shots- you are in good shape. Haqparast is more akin to a machine gun. He is going to throw a lot of offense at you, keep you pinned down, and keep coming. That should be the key to his success, especially considering Silva’s less than stellar performances late in fights (look deeper than his record). I like Haqparast as a Gold play across the board.

Draft-Kings-Logo

We could see a finish, but for a fighter that has mainly lean on the scorecards, a +$9000 price tag isn’t that great. Pass.

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Trevin Giles -170 vs Gerald Meerschaert +140

I gave GM3 a long hard look here. How doe she win, pulling Giles into grappling exchanges and being very aggressive on the feet. Unfortunately, that approach could also cost him the fight. If he expends too much energy trying to take Giles down, he will fall apart in the second half of the fight. If he gets too pushy on the feet, he will most likely walk into a counter and get put down. Giles was head on the cards against a better version of GM3 last time out. He should find similar success here. The line was much closer, but I still think we are getting solid value. Solid Silver play for Giles.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Giles also gets the Fantasy call. GM3 is usually all or nothing. If he can’t get Giles out of there, he most likely won’t last the full 15-minutes. Add him.

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Scott Holtzman -450 vs Dong Hyun Ma +350

This is an easy pass for me. I will consider a prop bet here, but I feel Ma has a big enough avenue to victory that the risk/reward isn’t even worth a look.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Holtzman is too expensive here. Pass as well.

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Kennedy Nzechukwu +110 vs Darko Stosic -138

We have a near pick’em fight here, with minimal movement. Stosic is getting a good pushing from Tapology at 64%, but I just don’t see it. He is a good kickboxer, but his volume is way too low for this level. At the regional level, you get more opportunities to land big shots and get your opponent out of there. Not so much in the UFC. His cardio is also a major issue. Look for KN to fight long and smack Stosic with that jab over and over again, pulling away as the fight advances. Strong Silver play here for Kennedy in my HBC and potentially the hinge play in my CBC bets that could headline a strong Bronze parlay.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also have Kennedy in my Fantasy lineup. Look for his high kick to play a role against 5″ shorter opponent. Solid price for a fighter that I feel is both better and has more room to develop since we last saw him.

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Mickey Gall +100 vs Salim Touahri -125

It is crazy to see how this line is all over the place. First Tapology predictors are 71% in favour of Gall here, but he opened at -190 and is now a slight dog, suggesting a lot of cash is coming on on Touahri. I like that trend. First, this is an FPO so the numbers tell us we are going the distance- or at least should. That does not bode well for Gall. He has won all 5 of his pro fights by sub, 4 in the opening round. If he can’t get Touahri to the floor, Salim is the more dangerous striker and should be able to go to work as Gall struggles to find a comfort zone. Touahri has fought a pair of more experienced grappling oriented fighters then Gall and held his own in both. I like Salim in my Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Salim in my subs- he offers a nice mix if you want to work him into your lineup. He hits hard, but the only reason he isn’t getting the call in my starting lineup is because he is in the FPO spot and could be in for a decision.

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Lucie Pudilova +125 vs Antonina Shevchenko -150

Shev opened over -200 and has steadily improved in value since. Some sites have her at -135, so shop around. Huge Tap push at 85% which makes sense to me. Pudilova is a scrapper, but she lacks the TDs that threatened Shev in a close fight last time out. Moreover, Lucie is quite vulnerable to being taken down and we could see AS attempt to go down that road if the fight is close. I like Shev in my Gold picks. Great value, overall better talent.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing doing here. Pudilova is tough and will be hard to get out of there.

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Jordan Espinosa -138 vs Matt Schnell +110

There has been small swing here but not much, Schnell was a favourite on some sites, but not all. Now he is the dog across the board between -105 to +111. Espinosa uses a lot of movement, but the volume isn’t always here. Look for Schnell’s pressure to carry the exchanges. When Espinosa fought Shelton, he wasn’t the same fighter on his back foot- it just didn’t happen a lot. Espinosa’s cardio isn’t great either and he uses a lot of movement. With only 2 KO wins, if he can’t get Schnell out of there early, he will slow and fall behind. I feel like there are a lot of good plays on this card and under most scenarios, Schnell would be close to the top of the list- but I have him in the Bronze section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

He does make the cut in my Fantasy lineup. He showed he can score a submission win and I like his pressure to put up some decent volume numbers here. His striking is solid and if he can land, a KO isn’t out of the question either. The price is also right.

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Mara Romero Borella -200 vs Lauren Murphy +175

The line on Borella has held fairly consistent on most sites. Some have her around -190 right up to -210, but minimal movement overall. Murphy just underperforms too much for my liking. She can work from top position, but struggles to get it there. On the feet, she lacks consistency. I feel like Borella can find success in both places and if she happens to get shutout of the TD game, if she stays vertical she can still win. I don’t think I can say the same for Murph. Gold play for the Italian.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Pass here.

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Claudio Silva -500 vs Cole Williams +380

This is a 100% No Play. We know little about Williams and while Silva keeps winning, we could see him stumble at some point. Too many options on this card to spend any time here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do have Silva in my Fantasy lineup. His grappling is strong and he has got the better of better fighters than Williams, we are looking for that early finish and this fight could produce that. Add it.

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Hannah Goldy -138 vs Miranda Granger +110

Two relatively green and debuting fighters to work with here. That can be dangerous. Goldy is the more complete fighter here and seems more likely to force her foe to compete in her area of strength. It is also worth noting that Granger and finished almost all of her fights in round 1, that is perfect fading material. Goldy is a Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Goldy most likely wins a wide decision- pass.

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Confidence List

1. Nasrat Haqparast -250

2. Antonina Shevchenko -150

3. Mara Romero Borella -200

4. Jim Miller -160

5. Scott Holtzman -450

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6. Claudio Silva -500

7. Salim Touahri -125

8. Trevin Giles -170

9. Robbie Lawler +187

10. Kennedy Nzechukwu +110

11. Matt Schnell +110

12. Hannah Goldy -138

Value Bet List

1. Robbie Lawler +187

2. Kennedy Nzechukwu +110

3. Matt Schnell +110

4. Salim Touahri -125

5. Antonina Shevchenko -150

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Claudio Silva to Win by Submission -150

Silva is a pretty talented grappler and lacks a strong rest of his game. That means he will most likely look to get this fight to the floor ASAP and tap out the new guys. There are lots of betting options on this card, this one should rank fairly low on your priority list, but it is an option.

2. Hannah Goldy/Miranda Granger

I would lean toward playing Goldy by decision, but with so little known on either side that it is better to just keep this bet simple.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
44
14 of 35 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
29111838%

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FPO Candidate

1. Salim Touahri to Win by Decision +230

We are rolling with this play here. We are at 9 consecutive decision in the FPO spot. I don’t think a long fight goes well for Gall, especially if he can’t take Touahri down with regularity. Take Salim the cards with a very good return.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
34211362%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2791833%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Clay Guida +130 vs Jim Miller -160

2. Kennedy Nzechukwu +110 vs Darko Stosic -138

3. Mickey Gall +100 vs Salim Touahri -125

4. Lucie Pudilova +125 vs Antonina Shevchenko -150

5. Jordan Espinosa -138 vs Matt Schnell +110

6. Hannah Goldy -138 vs Miranda Granger +110

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
1969310347%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
191969550%

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Prop Bets

Jim Miller to Win by Submission +250

Looking strictly at the numbers; Miller has 16 wins by sub, 7 in the UFC, and back to back tap outs coming into this fight. Guida has been subbed in 9 of 18 defeats, including 3 of his last 4 losses. Miller will be looking to put together a solid performance at home with a signature submission win. Good return for this play.

Trevin Giles to Win inside the Distance +150

I put some thought into playing Giles by knockout, but I want to keep GM3’s issues on the mat in play. Giles has split his 10 finishes evenly between knockouts and submission. Meerschaert has been finished 9 times in 12 defeats- 8 by sub. Look for Giles to have a lot of success on the feet, but GM3’s submission over position attack could give Giles a chance to grab a sub.

Mickey Gall/Salim Touahri

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Antonina Shevchenko to Win by Decision +125

Betting decisions in WMMA can be a lucrative venture as finishes seemed to be less frequent. Pudilova is very tough and has never been finished despite taking some big shots. She is 4-4 on the cards. Shevchenko has gone the distance in 6 of her 8 pro fights. Her other 2 wins came via knockout, 1 in her pro career. This option adds some pop to the Shevchenko pick.

Mara Romero Borella to Win by Decision -105

This is a very similar play to the one listed above. Murph is 3-4 on the scorecards, not a great track record. Borella can finish, but she has gone the distance in 4 of her last 6 wins- reflecting a step-up in competition. I think Borella outworks her for the duration, with a lot of cage grinding. Take her on the cards.

Claudio Silva/Cole Williams

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Hannah Goldy/Miranda Granger

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

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