UFC on ESPN 2 Bet Pack Recap

UFC on ESPN 2 Bet Pack Recap

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Karolina Kowalkiewicz  to WIN -150
+ Sabina Mazo  to WIN -150
ODDS: +178
BET: 10u
RETURN: 27.78u

 

BET #2
+ Edson Barboza  to WIN -138
+ Enrique Barzola  to WIN -125
ODDS: +210
BET: 7u
RETURN: 21.73u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Jack Hermansson  to WIN -125
ODDS: -125
BET: 5u
RETURN: 9u

 

BET #2
+ Kennedy Nzechukwu  to WIN -175
+ Kevin Holland  to WIN -188
ODDS: +141
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9.63u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Casey Kenney  to WIN +225
ODDS: +225
BET: 3u
RETURN: 9.75u

 

BET #2
+ Michael Johnson 
to WIN -110
+ Sodiq Yussuff  to WIN -138
ODDS: +229
BET: 3u
RETURN: 9.88u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Kevin Holland to Win Inside the Distance +188
ODDS: +188
BET: 3u
RETURN: 8.64u

 

BET #2
+ Kennedy Nzechukwu  to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +110
+ Karolina Kowalkiewicz  to Win by Decision +110
ODDS: +341
BET: 4u
RETURN: 17.64u

BET #3
+ Jack Hermansson  to WIN -125
+ Karolina Kowalkiewicz  to WIN -150
+ Sodiq Yussuff   to WIN -138
ODDS: +417
BET: 5u
RETURN: 25.87u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Karolina Kowalkiewicz  to WIN -150
+ Sabina Mazo  to WIN -150
+ Edson Barboza  to WIN -138
ODDS: +379
BET: 8u
RETURN: 38.33u

 

BET #2
+ Karolina Kowalkiewicz  to WIN -150
+ Sabina Mazo  to WIN -150
+ Enrique Barzola  to WIN -125
ODDS: +400
BET: 8u
RETURN: 40u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Kennedy Nzechukwu  to WIN -175
+ Kevin Holland  to WIN -188
+ Jack Hermansson  to WIN -125
ODDS: +333
BET: 6u
RETURN: 26u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Michael Johnson 
to WIN -110
+ Sodiq Yussuff  to WIN -138
+ Casey Kenney  to WIN +225
ODDS: +970
BET: 5u
RETURN: 53.5u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Kennedy Nzechukwu  to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +110
+ Karolina Kowalkiewicz  to Win by Decision +110
+ Kevin Holland to Win Inside the Distance +188
ODDS: +1170
BET: 4u
RETURN: 50.8u

BET #2
+ Jack Hermansson  to WIN -125
+ Karolina Kowalkiewicz  to WIN -150
+ Enrique Barzola  to WIN -125
+ Sodiq Yussuff   to WIN -138
ODDS: +831
BET: 5u
RETURN: 46.57u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Edson Barboza $8500
+ Jack Hermansson $8300
+ Enrique Barzola $8200
+ Casey Kenney $6800
+ Kennedy Nzechukwu $9000
+ Kevin Holland $8900

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Edson Barboza -138 vs Justin Gaethje +110

The line has seen very minimal movement and to me, it is right where it needs to be. Barboza has more tools to draw upon, but you can’t count out the heart and ability to dish out damage of Gaethje. Short of a boring decision or a flying triangle, there are a number of outcomes here that won’t shock me. Ultimately, I am not ready to jump back on the Gaethje war wagon after the Vick win. His style of fighting, take damage and wait until you fold- won’t work at the top level. Barboza will hurt him similar to how he did Hooker in.  Gold play on the Brazilian.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Barboza gets the nod in my fantasy lineup. He has the ability to score points with the accumulation of volume and a finish at any point is a reality. Add him.

David Branch +100 vs Jack Hermansson -125

This is a make or break for both men. Branch needs it to avoid busting out of the upper half portion of the rankings and this is Jack’s chance to break into the rankings. Branch opened around the -120 range and has steadily climbed in value to the dog spot. I really haven’t been impressed with his UFC run. Short of a quick knockout of Santos, he hasn’t put together a consistent performance. Hermansson wears guys out and that seems to be an issue Branch has. Jack pushes him early, gets him in a bad spot, and stomps him out. Jack is a Silver play here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

The Joker is also a fantasy starter. He is a finisher and does so with vicious tenacity. Look for him to wear Branch down, get him in a bad spot and pile up the points before the ref stops the fight.

Josh Emmett -110 vs Michael Johnson -110

Johnson has put together a couple of decent performances, but I am still not 100% sold. I put Emmett somewhere between Fili and Lobov. He is more dangerous than Lobov, but doesn’t offer the variety that Fili does. This fight is even for a reason, it is tight. Johnson was close to a Silver Play, but I could see Emmett hurting him or a close decision going against him. MJ is a Bronze play for me.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing here. Johnson will work the volume game, but the price isn’t there. The Fantasy line has him as a fav at $8400. Not going to bite

Karolina Kowalkiewicz -150 vs Michelle Waterson +125

KK opened as a slight favorite, but the gap is widening. She is simply the more complete fighter here, but her TDD is the key here. If she stays off the mat, her superior cardio, volume, and variety will carry this fight. Waterson gets the majority of her TDs from the clinch, a strong position for KK. I don’t like the limitation that Waterson is dealing with here. KK is Golden, possibly our top play of the night.

Draft-Kings-Logo

KK is most likely taking this fight the distance, not a price I want to pay for a scorecard finish.

Paul Craig +150 vs Kennedy Nzechukwu -175

We got some more new blood in the LHW division. Nzechukwu was above the -200 mark, but is slowly working his way down. Physically, he is gifted but still raw. Craig is limited, but his wrestling did look better in recent fights. Unless Kennedy gets caught up in the big lights or gets put on his back and freezes, he should walk away with this one. I have KN in my Silver section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Craig tends to get finished in defeat. That is what we are looking for. Kennedy can finish and that is also what we are looking for. With a heavy dog on our team, we can spend some extra bling here. Please do so.

Sheymon Moraes +110 vs Sodiq Yussuff -138

This is a very fun fight. Both guys are dangerous strikers with a lot of tools to work with. Like a lot of fights on this card, we are getting limit movement and a fairly tight line. Moraes tends to slow down and that could cost him the late round. Yussuff isn’t quite as active either, but I don’t think it is as noticeable. I like Sodiq’s speed to get him at least 1 of the first 2 rounds and then Moraes to fade in the 3rd. This is a solid Bronze play here that would most likely be a Silver bet on other cards.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I considered a play here but Yussuff is too expensive for my liking. I will look elsewhere.

Marina Rodriguez -350 vs Jessica Aguilar +275

I am going to pass here. I will look at a prop bet, but Aguilar could have enough wrestling to put Marina on her back and swipe a decision. No play at this price.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing doing here.

Ross Pearson +350 vs Desmond Green -450

No thank you. Green tends to fight a concerning pace and Pearson’s forward aggression could be enough if he stays vertical. This line should be much closer. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Green has been a decision machine and despite Pearson’s knockout losses adding up, this is also a No Play.

Enrique Barzola -125 vs Kevin Aguilar +100

Barzola opened as the dog around +125, but he has almost completely flipped. Aguilar looked good on short notice in his debut, but that has a lot to do with his opponent. Glenn is gritty but he is also hittable and stuck right in front of Kev- ready to be hit. Barzola is going to vary his offense and pile up some takedowns over the duration of the fight. Like Barzola to simply do more here; a slight edge in strikes, but a wide +5 or 6 edge in takedowns. Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Barzola will most likely go the distance, but I like him to score points with his takedowns. He is very affordable and will score with his takedowns. He has hit triple digits in 3 of his last 4 fights, he will be right there again.

Kevin Holland -188 vs Gerald Meerschaert +162

I like Holland a lot. He uses his reach and offers a pretty solid variety of offense. Meerschaert is no slouch, but he tends to be an all or nothing fighter. I don’t like his recent trend of falling behind and rallying. Holland isn’t the type that is going to overextend himself and that will prevent GM3 from coming back from a bad start. We are getting a good deal, with Holland opening around the -265 so I have him as a Silver bet.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Meerschaert gets finished in most defeats, similar to Paul Craig. That is good for us against a guy like Holland that can finish on the feet or Meerschaert. Add him.

Ray Borg -275 vs Casey Kenney +225

Borg is in a post-title fight letdown scenario. He is coming off a long layoff. He missed weight and he moved up a division. That is a lot going on. Kenney took this fight on short notice but fought a week ago. He is in a good mindset. He is a capable ground fighter and a decent striker. I think he keeps it close an edge this one out against an opponent in a bad spot. Bronze play considering everything involved here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Kenney is cheap. Really cheap. That allows us to add a couple of big price tags. I think he grabs a decision win with a workable 65-80 point return. Add him.

Maryna Moroz +125 vs Sabina Mazo -150

I love this fight for a couple of reason. Mazo looks like a calculated killer with a nice offensive flow. Moroz (moving up in weight) has become a fighter that throws a lot of volume with very little finding the mark. Unless Mazo never gets it out of first gear, she is way better than Moroz on the feet and Moroz doesn’t have the wrestling to change the flow. I will take the new kid in my Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Mazo got a look, but she is costly and has been going the distance against good competition. I will pass.

Alex Perez -350 vs Mark De La Rosa +275

Nope. Nope Nope. I have this fight closer, with Perez around -250. He is coming off a big knockout loss and MDLR could surprise him here if he is not mentally prepared. Better to sit this one out.

Draft-Kings-Logo

The same can be said here.

 

Confidence List

1. Karolina Kowalkiewicz -150

2. Sabina Mazo -150

3. Edson Barboza -138

4. Enrique Barzola -125

5. Kevin Holland -188

====================

6. Marina Rodriguez -350

7. Alex Perez -350

8. Kennedy Nzechukwu -175

9. Desmond Green -450

10. Jack Hermansson -125

11. Sodiq Yussuff -138

12. Michael Johnson -110

13. Casey Kenney +225

 

Value Bet List

1. Karolina Kowalkiewicz -150

2. Enrique Barzola -125

3. Sabina Mazo -150

4. Edson Barboza -138

5. Casey Kenney +225

 

Counter Bets

1. Ross Pearson +350

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

EPU Candidate(s)

1. Maryna Moroz/Sabina Mazo

Mazo can put a cap on things with one swift head kick which is enough to keep me away from a decision bet. She has gone the distance in each of her last 2 fights, so the step up might have her trending in that direction until she gets her footing. I will pass.

2. Alex Perez to Win Inside the Distance +150

Benavidez was probably too much too soon for Perez. That is ok. De La Rosa is a more appropriate opponent. Perez throws a lot on the feet as seen in the Torres win and his ground game is solid. He can finish in either spot. Bet accordingly.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
9
14
15
3 of 15 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
168850%

FPO Candidate

1. Marina Rodriguez to Win by Decision -150

This trend started off a little slow but it is back in line now. After watching Jag get smoked in her last fight the common idea might be to look for another finish defeat. Rodriguez can put it on her, but I will play the scenario and improve our odds here a bit.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
148657%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
102820%

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Edson Barboza -138 vs Justin Gaethje +110

2. David Branch +100 vs Jack Hermansson -125

3. Josh Emmett -110 vs Michael Johnson -110

4. Karolina Kowalkiewicz -150 vs Michelle Waterson +125

5. Sheymon Moraes +110 vs Sodiq Yussuff -138

6. Enrique Barzola -125 vs Kevin Aguilar +100

7. Maryna Moroz +125 vs Sabina Mazo -150

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
84404448%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
178958353%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
84404448%

 

Prop Bets

Karolina Kowalkiewicz to Win by Decision +110

KK is a decision machine. She has gone the distance 10 times, accounting for 9 of her 12 wins. Waterson has been finished, but she is a tough out. KK should be able to outwork her without the threat of a finish. Take her on the cards for a little more of a value bump.

Kennedy Nzechukwu to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +110

During Kennedy’s first Contenders’ fight he looked a little unsure of what he wanted to do next. Hell, it was his 3rd pro bout. In his next fight on the show, he looked much more purposeful and got his opponent out of there in fine time. Craig has been stopped on a couple of occasions and Nzechukwu will add to that.

Marina Rodriguez/Jessica Aguilar

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Kevin Holland to Win Inside the Distance +188

Meerschaert has been finished in 9 of his 10 losses- 8 by submission. Holland can work on the mat and he can do damage on the feet. I wouldn’t be shocked to see either scenario present itself. I like the aggression of Meerschaert to force Holland to engage and work towards a finish.

Maryna Moroz/Sabina Mazo

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Alex Perez/Mark De La Rosa

See the Betting Scenario Section.