UFC ON ESPN 14: WHITTAKER VS TILL | Bet Pack Review

UFC ON ESPN 14: WHITTAKER VS TILL | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Paul Craig  to Win -138
ODDS: -138
BET: 8u
RETURN: 13.8u

 

BET #2
+ Mauricio Rua  to Win -188
+ Marina Rodriguez  to Win -175
ODDS: +141
BET: 6u
RETURN: 14.44u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Jai Herbert  to Win +125
ODDS: +125
BET: 5u
RETURN: 11.25u

 

BET #2
+ Darren Till to Win +110
ODDS: +110
BET: 4u
RETURN: 8.4u

 

BET #2
+ Pannie Kianzad  to Win -160
+ Alex Oliveira  to Win -170
ODDS: +158
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12.9u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Tanner Boser  to Win -275
+ Movsar Evloev  to Win -200
ODDS: +105
BET: 4u
RETURN: 8.18u

 

BET #2
+ Tom Aspinall  to Win -225
+ Nicolas Dalby  to Win -250
ODDS: +102
BET: 4u
RETURN: 8.09u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Mauricio Rua to Win by TKO/KO +170
ODDS: +170
BET: 3u
RETURN: 8.1u

 

BET #2
+ Alexander Gustafsson to Win by Decision +180
ODDS: +180
BET: 3u
RETURN: 8.4u

 

BET #3
+ Paul Craig  to Win Inside the Distance +125
+ Khamzat Chimaev  to Win by Submission +110
ODDS: +373
BET: 3u
RETURN: 14.18u

BET #4
+ Ramazan Emeev to Win by Decision -165
+ Nathaniel Wood  to Win Inside the Distance -115
ODDS: +200
BET: 3u
RETURN: 9.01u

BET #5
+ Jai Herbert  to Win +125
+ Marina Rodriguez  to Win -175
ODDS: +254
BET: 3u
RETURN: 10.61u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Mauricio Rua  to Win -188
+ Paul Craig  to Win -138
+ Marina Rodriguez  to Win -175
ODDS: +315
BET: 10u
RETURN: 41.52u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Jai Herbert  to Win +125
+ Darren Till to Win +110
+ Tanner Boser  to Win -275
ODDS: +544
BET: 6u
RETURN: 38.66u

 

BET #2
+ Pannie Kianzad  to Win -160
+ Alex Oliveira  to Win -170
+ Jai Herbert  to Win +125
ODDS: +481
BET: 7u
RETURN: 40.65u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Tom Aspinall  to Win -225
+ Nicolas Dalby  to Win -250
+ Movsar Evloev  to Win -200
+ Tanner Boser  to Win -275
ODDS: +314
BET: 6u
RETURN: 24.82u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Mauricio Rua to Win by TKO/KO +170
+ Alexander Gustafsson to Win by Decision +180
+ Ramazan Emeev to Win by Decision -165
ODDS: +1114
BET: 4u
RETURN: 60.71u

 

BET #2
+ Paul Craig  to Win Inside the Distance +125
+ Khamzat Chimaev  to Win by Submission +110
+ Nathaniel Wood  to Win Inside the Distance -115
ODDS: +783
BET: 4u
RETURN: 35.33u

BET #3
+ Pannie Kianzad  to Win -160
+ Marina Rodriguez  to Win -175
+ Movsar Evloev  to Win -200
+ Nicolas Dalby  to Win -250
ODDS: +436
BET: 6u
RETURN: 32.18u

 

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Darren Till $7900
+ Paul Craig $8000
+ Mauricio Rua $9000
+ Tom Aspinall $8800
+ Jai Herbert $7700
+ Marina Rodriguez $8600

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Robert Whittaker -138 vs Darren Till +110

  • The line movement has been minimal here with Till touching +115 but nothing too drastic.
  • With Whittaker coming off a devastating KO loss of his title that is a lot to overcome just 1 fight later.
  • Tapology has 68% favouring Whittaker which isn’t that surprising,
  • If Whittaker is impacted by the KO/Post-Title fight letdown and Till improves on his 185 debut that is enough to swing this fight in Till’s favour.
  • Is it a top play? No, but I like Till.
  • Silver Play for the Brit.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Till has stopping power and Whittaker can be hurt and finished.
  • If Whittaker comes out tentative or too wild both scenarios could lead to a finish.
  • If they go the distance Till’s volume won’t be overwhelming but it will be decent and the price is solid.
  • Add him.

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Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +162 vs Mauricio Rua -188

  • Little Nog has a very limited window to get this done, similar to the first fight but possibly smaller.
  • He could stop Shogun with his boxing but he is even older, slower, and less durable than their last bout.
  • Shogun has remained competitive against better competition and won fights as well.
  • With Rua opening around -300 and below -200 on most books we are getting a solid return.
  • I have seen him as high as -225 but shop around.
  • Gold Play on Shogun.

Prop Bet:

  • Mauricio Rua to Win by TKO/KO +170
  • I just don’t think Nogueira can take the punishment anymore, especially when combined with the travel.
  • There is a reason he has fought predominantly at home and at 44 that is a tough age to remain competitive.
  • My big concern here is that Shogun tires and relies on takedowns and top control for a grinding decision win.

DK Lineup:

  • For most of the reasons listed above, Shogun is a fighter to include in your lineup.
  • He can finish and his opponent can be finished.
  • It is also worth noting that if they go the distance, Shogun should be able to secure 3-4 takedowns which will produce points as well.
  • Add him.

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Alexander Gustafsson -350 vs Fabricio Werdum +275

  • With so many unknowns here, this is a pass for me.
  • Gus came in at 240 which is huge. I would have much rather seen him around 225-230- easier transition.
  • We will see how Werdum looks in his 2nd fight after a break and Gus for the 1st time at HW.
  • Pass.

Prop Bet:

  • Alexander Gustafsson to Win by Decision +180
  • Gus hits hard, but the move to HW could take away some of that impact.
  • Werdum is relatively durable, but as noted as been finished before.
  • I would expect Gus to take a lightfooted approach to avoid the takedowns.
  • Watch for Werdum to start butt flopping in the latter stages of the fight to help us eat up time.

DK Lineup:

  • Pass.

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Carla Esparza +150 vs Marina Rodriguez -175

  • I like this fight for a couple of reasons.
  • Rodriguez has a solid length advantage and her recent experience with devoted grapplers (Calvillo/Markos) will help her out significantly.
  • We have lost some value on the -140 Rodriguez open, but I am still good with this price.
  • Her ability to do damage at distance will work well with Carla’s tendency to sit on the outside.
  • Gold play for Marina.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Rodriguez can offer volume and she can do damage which could lead to a finish.
  • Esparza knows she has to shoot which will create some desperation and mistakes.
  • Rodriguez either outworks her badly or finishes- possibly a combination of both.
  • Add her.

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Gadzhimurad Antigulov +110 vs Paul Craig -138

  • Not all that is Russian shines.
  • Antigulov came into the UFC with a pair of impressive wins and then got impressively finished twice.
  • Both fights saw his torrid pace and aggression lead to his downfall.
  • Craig can be finished, but Antigulov has a limit window and Craig has the grappling skills to survive until that window slams shut.
  • Craig was the slightest of dogs, but the money has come in on him very heavy.
  • Gold Play for Craig.

Prop Bet:

  • Paul Craig to Win Inside the Distance +125
  • Both fighters are the kill or be killed type.
  • The submission option seems like a good play, but Antigulov’s willingness to walk into strikes in pursuit of the takedown will leave him open to getting hurt before a sub presents itself.
  • Let’s keep all options on the table.

DK Lineup:

  • I don’t think there is too much that needs to be said beyond what I already wrote above.
  • Add him.

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Alex Oliveira -170 vs Peter Sobotta +140

  • The line movement has been minimal and Oliveria has 82% of the picks.
  • Sobotta is capable of pulling this one out, but he needs knockdowns and/or takedowns with top control.
  • Sobotta beat Dalby, Dalby beat Oliveira, but….. MMA Math doesn’t always work.
  • Oliveira outworks him, stays vertical, and takes over in a demanding bout.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Khamzat Chimaev -1200 vs Rhys McKee +700

  • It would appear that this is a Live Bet after a pair of dominant rounds.
  • We have seen plenty of fighters start so well and attempt a quick turn around with mixed results.
  • Not touching this fight SU is the way to go here.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Khamzat Chimaev to Win by Submission +110
  • The decent price here comes from the fear of a TKO/KO stoppage for Chimaev
  • I see him more likely to lock up another sub instead of attempting to pound his way to victory.
  • A risk but one worth taking a look at.

DK Lineup:

  • Chimaev will be owned by many and he is so expensive.
  • Including him will compromise your ability to bring in other fighters unless you get some unreal dogs.
  • Pass.

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Jai Herbert +125 vs Francisco Trinaldo -150

  • I like Herbert here, especially have Trinaldo missed weight.
  • As I broke down, in the UFC Trinaldo is 13-3 in Brazil and 2-3 on the road.
  • Missing weight continues the narrative that he struggles away from home.
  • Francisco is coming down as a fav and the line is drawing closer.
  • The longer and more active Herbert will be under fire early, but he has the skills to gut this one out.
  • Silver Play for Jai.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Herbert is affordable, has a good gas tank, and a dangerous striking game.
  • He could get the finish or piece of a fade opponent over a full 15-minutes.
  • Add him.

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Nicolas Dalby -250 vs Jesse Ronson +200

  • Dalby has been up and down in the UFC.
  • Had he continue on with his initial success he could have been a contender.
  • Ronson is coming in on short notice and is a relatively 1-dimensional fighter at this level.
  • If Dalby isn’t diverse, we get a closer fight that Ronson can win.
  • More likely, Dalby utilizes his takedowns to earn the nod.
  • Big line movement from a late open gives us some value here.
  • Instead of going in too big, let pair Dalby up with a couple of other bigger favs.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Dalby is too expensive for a potential decision
  • Pass.

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Tom Aspinall -225 vs Jake Collier +187

  • Well, after debuting at 185, Collier returned at 264 pounds- 79 pounds heavier.
  • I expected him to come in closer to 230-240.
  • Aspinall does hit hard and Collier has had issues with durability as low as MW.
  • As mentioned above, lets pair up a few of these mid-200 favs with a lower investment.
  • Bronze Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Tom Aspinall to Win by TKO/KO -105
  • As mentioned, Collier has been finished on multiple occasions and is now facing a big puncher at HW.
  • Aspinall has good a good finishing history. Let’s ride with that.

DK Lineup:

  • As mentioned above, Aspinall has a record built around quick finishes.
  • He is sub $9000 at $8800 which makes him a little more affordable as a big-ticket item.
  • If he wins, it is by knockout.
  • Add him.

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Movsar Evloev -200 vs Mike Grundy +170

  • Evloev was much closer to -270/-280 range when he opened so we are getting a nice bump in value.
  • If Grundy can keep this fight standing, he could hold his own, but I still favour Evloev.
  • If Grundy can take him down, things change dramatically.
  • I think Evloev outworks him where it takes place.
  • Bronze play for the Russian.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Tanner Boser -275 vs Raphael Pessoa +225

  • The Canadian’s line is moving against us which bumped him from a Gold/Silver option.
  • Boser was around -200 which was tempting, he is still a solid play but Pessoa is just dangerous enough.
  • The only concern here is that Pessoa stops him or hurts him enough to throw Boser off course.
  • Boser is more active and that is key.
  • Bronze Play for Tanner.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Bethe Correia +130 vs Pannie Kianzad -160

  • Correia is better than most people give her credit for, but not as good as she was pushed- it is important to find a balance.
  • Pannie opened around -115 and has been bet up by fans to the current -150 to -170 line depending on the book.
  • She needs to win if she is going to have any staying power.
  • Unless she gets drawn into a brawl, this is her fight to win.
  • Silver play on Pannie.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Ramazan Emeev -400 vs Niklas Stolze +300

  • I feel like Emeev got figured out in his last fight- ok I figured out who beats him and who he beats.
  • He should win this fight, but not worth a look at this line.
  • Pass.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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John Castaneda +350 vs Nathaniel Wood -450

  • Wood got smashed in his last fight and while I understand why he is the favourite, I can’t justify a bet.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Confidence List

1. Khamzat Chimaev -1200

2. Mauricio Rua -188

3. Marina Rodriguez -175

4. Paul Craig -138

5. Alex Oliveira -170

====================

6. Nicolas Dalby -250

7. Tanner Boser -275

8. Alexander Gustafsson -350

9. Movsar Evloev -200

10. Jai Herbert +125

11. Pannie Kianzad -160

12. Ramazan Emeev -400

13. Tom Aspinall -225

14. Nathaniel Wood -450

15. Darren Till +110

 

Value Bet List

1. Jai Herbert +125

2. Paul Craig -138

3. Darren Till +110

4. Mauricio Rua -188

5. Marina Rodriguez -175

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Ramazan Emeev to Win by Decision -165

Emeev has gone the distance in all 4 of his UFC bouts, 5 straight, and 8 overall. He is a grinder with a takedown heavy approach. He will most likely opt for something similar here. This is a pass or a Decision win prop for me.

2. Nathaniel Wood to Win Inside the Distance -115

Wood is coming off a nasty stoppage loss, so he could come out tentative or super aggressive. I would assume based on his style it will be aggressive. He has finished 14 of his 16 wins and hasn’t gone the distance in victory since a pair of 2015 bouts. Castaneda has only been finished once, but debuting on short notice certainly won’t help him here against a talented and aggressive opponent.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
21
6 of 21 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
2281436%

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FPO Candidate

1. Jai Herbert/Francisco Trinaldo

I will leave this one alone. I want Herbert to get it done any way possible. He is a finisher, but this is a next-level opponent.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
1811761%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
104640%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Robert Whittaker -138 vs Darren Till +110

2. Gadzhimurad Antigulov +110 vs Paul Craig -138

3. Jai Herbert +125 vs Francisco Trinaldo -150

4. Bethe Correia +130 vs Pannie Kianzad -160

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
99514852%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
99465346%