When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Paul Craig
to Win
-138
ODDS:
-138
BET:
8u
RETURN:
13.8u
BET #2
+ Mauricio Rua
to Win
-188
+ Marina Rodriguez
to Win
-175
ODDS:
+141
BET:
6u
RETURN:
14.44u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Jai Herbert
to Win
+125
ODDS:
+125
BET:
5u
RETURN:
11.25u
BET #2
+ Darren Till
to Win
+110
ODDS:
+110
BET:
4u
RETURN:
8.4u
BET #2
+ Pannie Kianzad
to Win
-160
+ Alex Oliveira
to Win
-170
ODDS:
+158
BET:
5u
RETURN:
12.9u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Tanner Boser
to Win
-275
+ Movsar Evloev
to Win
-200
ODDS:
+105
BET:
4u
RETURN:
8.18u
BET #2
+ Tom Aspinall
to Win
-225
+ Nicolas Dalby
to Win
-250
ODDS:
+102
BET:
4u
RETURN:
8.09u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Mauricio Rua
to Win by TKO/KO
+170
ODDS:
+170
BET:
3u
RETURN:
8.1u
BET #2
+ Alexander Gustafsson
to Win by Decision
+180
ODDS:
+180
BET:
3u
RETURN:
8.4u
BET #3
+ Paul Craig
to Win Inside the Distance
+125
+ Khamzat Chimaev
to Win by Submission
+110
ODDS:
+373
BET:
3u
RETURN:
14.18u
BET #4
+ Ramazan Emeev
to Win by Decision
-165
+ Nathaniel Wood
to Win Inside the Distance
-115
ODDS:
+200
BET:
3u
RETURN:
9.01u
BET #5
+ Jai Herbert
to Win
+125
+ Marina Rodriguez
to Win
-175
ODDS:
+254
BET:
3u
RETURN:
10.61u
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Mauricio Rua
to Win
-188
+ Paul Craig
to Win
-138
+ Marina Rodriguez
to Win
-175
ODDS:
+315
BET:
10u
RETURN:
41.52u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Jai Herbert
to Win
+125
+ Darren Till
to Win
+110
+ Tanner Boser
to Win
-275
ODDS:
+544
BET:
6u
RETURN:
38.66u
BET #2
+ Pannie Kianzad
to Win
-160
+ Alex Oliveira
to Win
-170
+ Jai Herbert
to Win
+125
ODDS:
+481
BET:
7u
RETURN:
40.65u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Tom Aspinall
to Win
-225
+ Nicolas Dalby
to Win
-250
+ Movsar Evloev
to Win
-200
+ Tanner Boser
to Win
-275
ODDS:
+314
BET:
6u
RETURN:
24.82u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Mauricio Rua
to Win by TKO/KO
+170
+ Alexander Gustafsson
to Win by Decision
+180
+ Ramazan Emeev
to Win by Decision
-165
ODDS:
+1114
BET:
4u
RETURN:
60.71u
BET #2
+ Paul Craig
to Win Inside the Distance
+125
+ Khamzat Chimaev
to Win by Submission
+110
+ Nathaniel Wood
to Win Inside the Distance
-115
ODDS:
+783
BET:
4u
RETURN:
35.33u
BET #3
+ Pannie Kianzad
to Win
-160
+ Marina Rodriguez
to Win
-175
+ Movsar Evloev
to Win
-200
+ Nicolas Dalby
to Win
-250
ODDS:
+436
BET:
6u
RETURN:
32.18u
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
+ Darren Till
$7900
+ Paul Craig
$8000
+ Mauricio Rua
$9000
+ Tom Aspinall
$8800
+ Jai Herbert
$7700
+ Marina Rodriguez
$8600
Spares
+
+
+
+
Betting Breakdowns
Robert Whittaker -138 vs Darren Till +110
The line movement has been minimal here with Till touching +115 but nothing too drastic.
With Whittaker coming off a devastating KO loss of his title that is a lot to overcome just 1 fight later.
Tapology has 68% favouring Whittaker which isn’t that surprising,
If Whittaker is impacted by the KO/Post-Title fight letdown and Till improves on his 185 debut that is enough to swing this fight in Till’s favour.
Is it a top play? No, but I like Till.
Silver Play for the Brit.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Till has stopping power and Whittaker can be hurt and finished.
If Whittaker comes out tentative or too wild both scenarios could lead to a finish.
If they go the distance Till’s volume won’t be overwhelming but it will be decent and the price is solid.
Add him.
icon-circleicon-circle
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +162 vs Mauricio Rua -188
Little Nog has a very limited window to get this done, similar to the first fight but possibly smaller.
He could stop Shogun with his boxing but he is even older, slower, and less durable than their last bout.
Shogun has remained competitive against better competition and won fights as well.
With Rua opening around -300 and below -200 on most books we are getting a solid return.
I have seen him as high as -225 but shop around.
Gold Play on Shogun.
Prop Bet:
Mauricio Rua to Win by TKO/KO +170
I just don’t think Nogueira can take the punishment anymore, especially when combined with the travel.
There is a reason he has fought predominantly at home and at 44 that is a tough age to remain competitive.
My big concern here is that Shogun tires and relies on takedowns and top control for a grinding decision win.
DK Lineup:
For most of the reasons listed above, Shogun is a fighter to include in your lineup.
He can finish and his opponent can be finished.
It is also worth noting that if they go the distance, Shogun should be able to secure 3-4 takedowns which will produce points as well.
Add him.
icon-circleicon-circle
Alexander Gustafsson -350 vs Fabricio Werdum +275
With so many unknowns here, this is a pass for me.
Gus came in at 240 which is huge. I would have much rather seen him around 225-230- easier transition.
We will see how Werdum looks in his 2nd fight after a break and Gus for the 1st time at HW.
Pass.
Prop Bet:
Alexander Gustafsson to Win by Decision +180
Gus hits hard, but the move to HW could take away some of that impact.
Werdum is relatively durable, but as noted as been finished before.
I would expect Gus to take a lightfooted approach to avoid the takedowns.
Watch for Werdum to start butt flopping in the latter stages of the fight to help us eat up time.
DK Lineup:
Pass.
icon-circleicon-circle
Carla Esparza +150 vs Marina Rodriguez -175
I like this fight for a couple of reasons.
Rodriguez has a solid length advantage and her recent experience with devoted grapplers (Calvillo/Markos) will help her out significantly.
We have lost some value on the -140 Rodriguez open, but I am still good with this price.
Her ability to do damage at distance will work well with Carla’s tendency to sit on the outside.
Gold play for Marina.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Rodriguez can offer volume and she can do damage which could lead to a finish.
Esparza knows she has to shoot which will create some desperation and mistakes.
Rodriguez either outworks her badly or finishes- possibly a combination of both.
Add her.
icon-circleicon-circle
Gadzhimurad Antigulov +110 vs Paul Craig -138
Not all that is Russian shines.
Antigulov came into the UFC with a pair of impressive wins and then got impressively finished twice.
Both fights saw his torrid pace and aggression lead to his downfall.
Craig can be finished, but Antigulov has a limit window and Craig has the grappling skills to survive until that window slams shut.
Craig was the slightest of dogs, but the money has come in on him very heavy.
Gold Play for Craig.
Prop Bet:
Paul Craig to Win Inside the Distance +125
Both fighters are the kill or be killed type.
The submission option seems like a good play, but Antigulov’s willingness to walk into strikes in pursuit of the takedown will leave him open to getting hurt before a sub presents itself.
Let’s keep all options on the table.
DK Lineup:
I don’t think there is too much that needs to be said beyond what I already wrote above.
Add him.
icon-circleicon-circle
Alex Oliveira -170 vs Peter Sobotta +140
The line movement has been minimal and Oliveria has 82% of the picks.
Sobotta is capable of pulling this one out, but he needs knockdowns and/or takedowns with top control.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
Emeev has gone the distance in all 4 of his UFC bouts, 5 straight, and 8 overall. He is a grinder with a takedown heavy approach. He will most likely opt for something similar here. This is a pass or a Decision win prop for me.
2. Nathaniel Wood to Win Inside the Distance -115
Wood is coming off a nasty stoppage loss, so he could come out tentative or super aggressive. I would assume based on his style it will be aggressive. He has finished 14 of his 16 wins and hasn’t gone the distance in victory since a pair of 2015 bouts. Castaneda has only been finished once, but debuting on short notice certainly won’t help him here against a talented and aggressive opponent.
EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47
24
23
51%
2016 Picks
55
31
24
56%
2017 Picks
47
20
27
43%
2018 Picks
42
25
17
60%
2019 Picks
32
13
19
41%
2020 Picks
23
8
15
35%
icon-circleicon-circle
FPO Candidate
1. Jai Herbert/Francisco Trinaldo
I will leave this one alone. I want Herbert to get it done any way possible. He is a finisher, but this is a next-level opponent.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.