UFC on ESPN 13: Kattar vs Ige | Bet Pack Review

UFC on ESPN 13: Kattar vs Ige | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Cody Stamann  to Win +110
ODDS: +110
BET: 8u
RETURN: 16.8u

 

BET #2
+ Ricardo Ramos  to Win -163
+ Calvin Kattar  to Win -334
ODDS: +110
BET: 6u
RETURN: 12.58u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Molly McCann  to Win -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 5u
RETURN: 9.55u

 

BET #2
+ Jared Gordon  to Win -150
+ Tim Elliott  to Win -125
ODDS: +200
BET: 4u
RETURN: 12u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Diana Belbita  to Win -163
ODDS: -163
BET: 3u
RETURN: 4.84u

 

BET #2
+ Kenneth Bergh  to Win -160
+ Modestas Bukauskas  to Win -225
ODDS: +135
BET: 3u
RETURN: 7.04u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Alhassan/Lazzez Total Rounds Under 1.5 -170
+ Modestas Bukauskas to Win by TKO/KO
+100
ODDS: +218
BET: 4u
RETURN: 12.71u

 

BET #2
+ Jack Shore to Win by Submission -105
+ Bergh/ Gonzalez  Total Rounds Under 1.5 -135
ODDS: +240
BET: 4u
RETURN: 13.59u

 

BET #3
+ Cody Stamann  to Win +110
+ Molly McCann  to Win -110
+ Ricardo Ramos  to Win -163
ODDS: +547
BET: 3u
RETURN: 19.41u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Cody Stamann 
to Win +110
+ Ricardo Ramos  to Win -163
+ Calvin Kattar  to Win -334
ODDS: +340
BET: 10u
RETURN: 44.03u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Molly McCann 
to Win -110
+ Jared Gordon  to Win -150
+ Tim Elliott  to Win -125
ODDS: +473
BET: 7u
RETURN: 40.09

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Diana Belbita 
to Win -163
+ Kenneth Bergh  to Win -160
+ Modestas Bukauskas  to Win -225
ODDS: +279
BET: 5u
RETURN: 18.94u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Alhassan/Lazzez Total Rounds Under 1.5 -170
+ Modestas Bukauskas to Win by TKO/KO
+100
+ Jack Shore to Win by Submission -105
+ Bergh/ Gonzalez  Total Rounds Under 1.5 -135
ODDS: +980
BET: 5u
RETURN: 53.98u

 

BET #2
+ Cody Stamann  to Win +110
+ Jared Gordon  to Win -150
+ Ricardo Ramos  to Win -163
ODDS: +465
BET: 6u
RETURN: 33.88u

 

BET #3
+ Molly McCann  to Win -110
+ Tim Elliott  to Win -125
+ Diana Belbita  to Win -163
+ Kenneth Bergh  to Win -160
ODDS: +801
BET: 6u
RETURN: 54.06u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Dan Ige $7100
+ Cody Stamann $7800
+ Abdul Razak Alhassan $9200
+ Kenneth Bergh $8700
+ Jared Gordon $8300
+ Ricardo Ramos $8800

Spares

+ Modestas Bukauskas $8800
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Calvin Kattar -334 vs Dan Ige +250

  • Kattar has a number of significant edges in this fight, but there is not denying that Ige is tough.
  • The line originally opened around -230 which made this a key play, but now it is more of a secondary bet.
  • I still like Kattar here to augment my top plays, especially considering how many lesser-known fighters are on this card.
  • Kattar gets the call for a Gold Play to be paired with Ricardo Ramos.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Ige is a tough out, which makes it hard to back Kattar at such a high price despite his finishing skills.
  • With so many big favs on the card and few dogs to choose from, Ige gets the call to our lineup.
  • He will have 5 rounds to compile points with takedowns power strikes.
  • He is also the type of fighter that if Kattar is off his game, Ige could come through for us.
  • The best of the lower end options.
  • Add him to the lineup

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Ryan Benoit +100 vs Tim Elliott -125

  • Elliott’s style usually works on lower/middle-ranked opponents but his last performance left a lot to be desired.
  • Benoit has had issues making weight under optimal conditions and doesn’t have a deep gas tank.
  • He is also vulnerable to takedowns which is Tim’s forte.
  • 74% of Tapology players picking Elliott and line is moving in our favour from a near -200 open.
  • I know a lot of bettors that planned to fade Elliott after his last fight, this is the wrong spot.
  • Tim is a Silver play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Jimmie Rivera -138 vs Cody Stamann +110

  • I love the line here.
  • At BW, I see Rivera with the ability to outwork Stamann who cuts a lot to make the division.
  • At 145, Stamann looked good and Rivera will be putting on extra pounds for minimal gain.
  • Cody is also turning around quickly while Rivera has been off for a prolonged period which favours Cody especially with the short notice.
  • The line movement is minimal and of nearly 1000 picks on Tapology, 65% are favouring Stamann.
  • #1 Gold play for Stamman.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Stamann’s volume is good and his wrestling is solid.
  • He is also the only underdog I am on so he needs to be included for budget reasons.
  • Rivera has been hurt in multiple fights and finished by Moraes, Stamann could do the same.
  • Add him.

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Molly McCann -110 vs Taila Santos -110

  • The shift on this line is crazy, with Molly opening around -300 and is now at even money.
  • With 88% of 1000+ pickers backing McCann, combined with the movement- this is a solid pick.
  • That being said, Santos has had little exposure at this level and while McCann has looked decent of late, she is still developing.
  • I like her as a strong Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No play.

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Abdul Razak Alhassan -334 vs Mounir Lazzez +250

  • This is an easy pass from SU perspective.
  • Too many intangibles to consider here when looking at the line.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Abdul Razak Alhassan/Mounir Lazzez Total Rounds Under 1.5 -170
  • I looked at Alhassan by knockout and wasn’t happy with the line.
  • This play keeps both fighters striking skills in play.
  • Both guys are 1st round finishers, but we get an extra half round to sort it out.
  • If you want a bigger taste, Alhassan Wins in Round 1 @ -105 is worth a look.

DK Lineup:

  • With all his wins coming by knockout in round 1, Alhassan is an easy fighter to include.
  • His opponent is a capable striker, but also taking a big step up in competition.
  • Add him.

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John Phillips +250 vs Khamzat Chimaev -334

  • Phillips has knockout power and Chimaev is green.
  • That is enough by itself to pass.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Chris Fishgold +125 vs Jared Gordon -150

  • Gordon is moving back down to FW where he is 2-0 and has looked good.
  • It is possible that the benefits of not cutting were outweighed by the larger/ more impactful strikers at LW.
  • Fishgold can sit down on his punches, but he doesn’t have a great track record of knockout wins.
  • He will also engage Gordon in the high paced fight that Gordon wants to push.
  • Gordon will outwork him on the feet and should be able to hold his own on the mat.
  • The line movement has not been in our favour, but isn’t too drastic.
  • Silver Play for Gordon.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Gordon works at pretty solid pace and will look for the finish as well.
  • Fishgold has been finished in both of his UFC defeats.
  • At $8300, he is reasonably affordable.
  • Add him.

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Lerone Murphy +137 vs Ricardo Ramos -163

  • Murphy got a good deal in his first fight with an opponent coming off a massive layoff that gassed in super hot conditions.
  • It allowed him to get a split draw versus a decent opponent, that is helping the line here.
  • Ramos has the ability to exploit his shaky TDD and capable of holding his own on the feet.
  • Solid return on Ramos- Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Ramos is a proven finisher which is what we are looking for.
  • Even if he can’t get the stoppage, a multitude of takedowns augmented by striking will do the trick.
  • Add him.

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Modestas Bukauskas -225 vs Andreas Michailidis +187

  • This should be a fun fight with a lot of action early.
  • The line has moved some and -225 is on the better end of it.
  • With 2 debut LHWs you want to limit your exposure here.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • Modestas Bukauskas to Win by TKO/KO +100
  • Bukauskas has a knockout heavy record and is facing.
  • Michailidis has been knocked out 3-times and has a limited gas tank.
  • That is enough for me.

DK Lineup:

  • Add Bukauskas in as a spare and use him to vary your lineups in place of Alhassan.
  • As mentioned above, I feel like he should get the finish- but it might not be as quick as our #1 option.

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Diana Belbita -163 vs Liana Jojua +137

  • We were getting a better number at the start, around -140, but this is still playable.
  • Belbita seems like the more assertive fighter, even in her defeat.
  • This is a bout where both girls are still new and we are figuring out how they hold up at this level.
  • Belbita outworks her for the majority of the fight
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Aaron Phillips +550 vs Jack Shore -800

  • This line is crazy considering Shore has 1 UFC fight.
  • Phillips has fought pretty low-level opponents to get back to this level.
  • He is also vulnerable to the skill set that Shore offers.
  • Still, an easy No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Shore is simply too expensive in an already expensive lineup.
  • If you can make him work, you should.

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Kenneth Bergh -160 vs Jorge Gonzalez +130

  • This is an odd last-second fight between a first-round knockout artist and a first-round submission artist.
  • I am not sure if these guys are UFC ready, but it will be fun.
  • Gonzalez is vulnerable to getting taken down and if Burgh can do that in round 1 he either wins or tires him out and subs him in R2.
  • (If Gonzalez lands with power Bergh is vulnerable to that.
  • Bergh was a near -200 fav at the open so we are getting some value here.
  • Bronze Play on Bergh.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • If Bergh wins it will almost certainly be by submission inside the first 7-8 minutes or less.
  • High likelihood of a round 1 finish.
  • He is also more affordable than other finishers.
  • Add him.

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Confidence List

1. Jack Shore -800

2. Calvin Kattar -334

3. Ricardo Ramos -163

4. Cody Stamann +110

5. Modestas Bukauskas -225

====================

6. Jared Gordon -150

7. Abdul Razak Alhassan -334

8. Tim Elliott -125

9. Molly McCann -110

10. Khamzat Chimaev -334

11. Diana Belbita -163

12. Kenneth Bergh -160

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Cody Stamann +110

2. Molly McCann -110

3. Ricardo Ramos -163

4. Jared Gordon -150

5. Tim Elliott -125

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Jack Shore to Win by Submission -105

Phillips can be taken down and Shore is going to do that a lot. Once on the mat, Shore loves to move to back control and set up his RNC. My only real concern here is that Shore opts for some GNP to get a finish.

2. Kenneth Bergh/Jorge Gonzalez Total Rounds Under 1.5 -135

Both fighters come out looking for the finish from the onset of the fight, Bergh by sub and Jorge by knockout- I struggle to believe one of them won’t get it by the 7:30 mark. Let’s do it!

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
21
6 of 21 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
2281436%

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FPO Candidate

1. John Phillips/Khamzat Chimaev

There is just a lot about this fight that makes me not want to get invested. Let’s stick with that instinct. Pass.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
1811761%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
104640%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Ryan Benoit +100 vs Tim Elliott -125

2. Jimmie Rivera -138 vs Cody Stamann +110

3. Molly McCann -110 vs Taila Santos -110

4. Chris Fishgold +125 vs Jared Gordon -150

5. Lerone Murphy +137 vs Ricardo Ramos -163

6. Diana Belbita -163 vs Liana Jojua +137

7. Kenneth Bergh -160 vs Jorge Gonzalez +130

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
99514852%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
99465346%