UFC on ESPN 12: Poirier vs Hooker | Bet Pack Review

UFC on ESPN 12: Poirier vs Hooker | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Brendan Allen  to Win -300
+ Kay Hansen  to Win -170
ODDS: +112
BET: 10u
RETURN: 21.18u

 

BET #2
+ Dan Hooker  to Win +200
ODDS: +200
BET: 6u
RETURN: 18u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Philipe Lins  to Win -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 5u
RETURN: 9.55u

 

BET #2
+ Youssef Zalal  to Win -125
+ Luis Pena  to Win -250
ODDS: +152
BET: 6u
RETURN: 15.12u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Gian Villante  to Win +200
ODDS: +200
BET: 4u
RETURN: 12u

 

BET #2
+ Mike Perry  to Win -334
+ Takashi Sato  to Win -264
ODDS: -134
BET: 5u
RETURN: 8.96u

BET #3
+ Philipe Lins  to Win -110
+ Youssef Zalal  to Win -125
+ Kay Hansen  to Win -170
ODDS: +446
BET: 5u
RETURN: 27.29u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Kay Hansen   to Win by Submission +450
ODDS: +450
BET: 3u
RETURN: 16.5u

 

BET #2
+ Sean Woodson to Win by TKO/KO -120
+ Takashi Sato   to Win by TKO/KO 135
ODDS: +219
BET: 4u
RETURN: 12.77u

BET #3
+ Mike Perry   to Win by TKO/KO -135
+ Brendan Allen to Win Inside the Distance -135
ODDS: +203
BET: 4u
RETURN: 12.12u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Brendan Allen  to Win -300
+ Kay Hansen  to Win -170
+ Dan Hooker  to Win +200
ODDS: +535
BET: 8u
RETURN: 50.82u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Youssef Zalal  to Win -125
+ Luis Pena  to Win -250
+ Philipe Lins  to Win -110
ODDS: +381
BET: 7u
RETURN: 33.68u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Mike Perry  to Win -334
+ Takashi Sato  to Win -264
+ Gian Villante  to Win +200
ODDS: +397
BET: 5u
RETURN: 24.85u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Philipe Lins  to Win -110
+ Youssef Zalal  to Win -125
+ Dan Hooker  to Win +200
ODDS: +931
BET: 5u
RETURN: 51.55u

 

BET #2
+ Gian Villante  to Win +200
+ Youssef Zalal  to Win -125
+ Kay Hansen  to Win -170
ODDS: +758
BET: 5u
RETURN: 42.88u

 

BET #3
+ Sean Woodson to Win by TKO/KO -120
+ Takashi Sato   to Win by TKO/KO 135
+ Kay Hansen   to Win by Submission +450
ODDS: +1655
BET: 3u
RETURN: 52.66u

 

BET #3
+ Mike Perry   to Win by TKO/KO -135
+ Brendan Allen to Win Inside the Distance -135
+ Luis Pena  to Win -250
ODDS: +324
BET: 5u
RETURN: 21.21u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Dan Hooker $7500
+ Gian Villante $7600
+ Brendan Allen $9200
+ Takashi Sato $8400
+ Kay Hansen $8500
+ Sean Woodson $8800

Spares

+ Luis Pena $8900
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Dustin Poirier -250 vs Dan Hooker +200

  • Post-title fight letdown scenario for Poirier, we know it isn’t 100% but certainly plays a role in a fighter’s performance.
  • This fight was much closer at the open (Hooker +145) but the public has hammered Poirier.
  • On Tapology, Poirier is getting over 80% of the picks which is a little crazy for me.
  • Good value you on Hooker, especially in a small cage with a size advantage.
  • Gold Play for the Hangman.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Hooker is a proven finisher and Poirier can be finished.
  • At $7500, he have a huge opportunity to score big points with minimal investment.
  • With the 80% backing of Dustin on Tapology, we can pick up a lot of unique points with a win here.
  • Add Hooker.

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Mickey Gall +250 vs Mike Perry -334

  • Not a big fan of Perry and his corner situation makes him even less desirable.
  • We lost a tonne of value on Perry from his open around -150 which would have been a Gold option.
  • All that said, Gall is pretty limited as well and can only win this bout in a very particular scenario.
  • I think Perry gets the better of him, but with only 10 fights, let’s keep our investment small.
  • Pair Perry and Sato together of for HBC Bronze parlay.

Prop Bet:

  • Mike Perry to Win by TKO/KO -135
  • Perry does his best work when he can bully opponents and is the far superior striker- that should be the case here.
  • Look for him to get back to his finishing ways as Gall starts to fade.

DK Lineup:

  • For the reasons listed above, I considered using Perry, but he is just a little out of my price range.
  • Pass

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Brendan Allen -300 vs Kyle Daukaus +240

  • I really liked Allen around -250, I still like him here as he seems like a better version of Daukaus who has less experience and less prep time.
  • I think Allen gets his hand raised and even at this price I feel we can work him into out Gold play.
  • Allen and Hansen is a solid parlay.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Brendan Allen to Win Inside the Distance -135
  • Allen has shown he can finish with strikes or subs and with Daukaus so willing to hit the mat, a finish is likely.
  • Let’s keep all options on the table.

DK Lineup:

  • As mentioned above, Allen can finish.
  • He also carries a steady pace and his takedown/ transition game will produce points.
  • Add him.

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Maurice Greene -250 vs Gian Villante +200

  • Villante weighed in at 255 pounds- that’s pretty big for him and unexpected. I had him around 235.
  • That will slow him down some, but it could also help him to pack some additional power behind his punches.
  • This was a gut pick as I think Villante could find his way inside and hurt a wobbly Greene.
  • Not a popular pick, could be am ugly fight, let’s take a dog in a HW bout in a small cage.
  • Bronze Bet.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Greene has been finished in 2 straight fights and Villante can land his overhand right, it could be 3 in a row,
  • At $7600, Villante allows us to add some other bigger ticket fighters while still banking on a finish win.

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Tanner Boser -110 vs Philipe Lins -110

  • Lins getting 70% on Tapology which suggests we are getting some solid value here.
  • He didn’t fight poorly in his debut, but AA was probably too much too soon.
  • Boser is pretty straight forward and won’t do anything too out of the ordinary, Lins just needs to let his hands go.
  • Silver play for Lins.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Julian Erosa +400 vs Sean Woodson -550

  • This is a no play.
  • Woodson is still an unknown and Erosa, while not very successful at this level, could spark the upset.
  • Pass.

Prop Bet:

  • Sean Woodson to Win by TKO/KO -120
  • Erosa can be finished and he won’t have his reach/ length advantage that he normally does.
  • The knees and uppercuts present a major threat from the lanky Woodson- I think something lands.

DK Lineup:

  • Woodson can finish and Erosa has been finished- a lot.
  • Let’s back the heavy fav and cash in some of the money we have shared.
  • Add Woodson.

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Luis Pena -250 vs Khama Worthy +200

  • Worthy shocked a lot of us in his debut, ok let’s be honest- pretty much all of us.
  • He is getting a bit of push off an impressive performance that is helping our line.
  • Pena is more durable and the threat of his ground game should be enough.
  • The line hasn’t moved much which is fine for backing Pena.
  • Pena is a solid addition to the Silver section.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Pena can finish and Worthy has been finished in all 6 pro losses.
  • Even without a finish, the activity on the mat will produce points for Pena.
  • Use him as a spare and sub out a couple of your other high spenders.

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Jason Witt +236 vs Takashi Sato -264

  • Witt is coming in on super short notice and we all saw what happened with Jaynes/Camacho.
  • Nonetheless, with only 10 fights to pick from, we can make a few small plays.
  • Sato/Perry is a viable Bronze level play.

Prop Bet:

  • Takashi Sato to Win by TKO/KO -135
  • Witt has been knocked out a couple of times and was dropped in one of his recent wins.
  • Sato has power and he is a patient striker, he should be able to find the mark as Witt presses forward looking for takedowns.

DK Lineup:

  • At $8400, Sato is a solid add against a short notice wrestling based fighter.
  • Witt is not a great striker and if he slows, Sato should be able to get him out of there.
  • We are still getting a solid price from the original fight, so Sato will most likely be a popular pick, still a good option.
  • Add him.

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Jinh Yu Frey +140 vs Kay Hansen -170

  • This is a fun fight between 2 debuting fighters.
  • Hansen’s size edge and wrestling skill set should be able to carry this bout.
  • Frey is still a lot of fun to watch, but this is a bad debut for her in small cage.
  • Gold play for Hansen.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • The takedowns will be there for Hansen and her back takes are solid.
  • She should score some decent points even in a decision.
  • Add her.

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Jordan Griffin +100 vs Youssef Zalal -125

  • Griffin hasn’t impressed me at all and could easily be 0-3.
  • Zalal showed he can use takedowns, but he can also use range striking to find success.
  • Youssef should have superior cardio which is huge as it will limit the potential for Griffin to rally.
  • The line was near even, but I still like the return on YZ.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Confidence List

1. Brendan Allen -300

2. Sean Woodson -550

3. Luis Pena -250

4. Kay Hansen -170

5. Takashi Sato -264

====================

6. Youssef Zalal -125

7. Mike Perry -334

8. Philipe Lins -110

9. Dan Hooker +200

10. Gian Villante +200

11.

12.

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Dan Hooker +200

2. Gian Villante +200

3. Philipe Lins -110

4. Youssef Zalal -125

5. Kay Hansen -170

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Kay Hansen to Win by Submission +450

Hansen takedown game is solid and she does a great job working to her opponent’s back. Against a smaller striking based opponent look for this to be a central aspect of her offense. Huge return on this bet.

2. Jordan Griffin/Youssef Zalal

No play here, Griffin is a tough out and Zalal could easily spend this fight outpointing him for a decision.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
21
6 of 21 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
2281436%

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FPO Candidate

1. Luis Pena/Khama Worthy

I will pass here. My lean is to fade this scenario and I am already in on a couple of props. Best to leave this one alone.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
1811761%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
104640%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Tanner Boser -110 vs Philipe Lins -110

2. Jordan Griffin +100 vs Youssef Zalal -125

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
99514852%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
99465346%

 

 

 

 

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