UFC on ESPN 11: Blaydes vs Volkov | Bet Pack Review
Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack
Parlays & Single Bets
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Shane Burgos | to Win | -138 |  |
| ODDS: | -138 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 13.8u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Raquel Pennington | to Win | -163 |  |
| + Roosevelt Roberts | to Win | -250 | |
| ODDS: | +126 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 18.07u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Gillian Robertson | to Win | -110 | |
| ODDS: | -110 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 11.45u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Belal Muhammad | to Win | -138 | |
| + Brianna Van Buren | to Win | -210 | |
| ODDS: | +155 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 15.28u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Roxanne Modafferi | to Win | -125 | |
| ODDS: | -125 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 9u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Oskar Piechota | to Win | -125 | |
| ODDS: | -125 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 7.2u |
| BET #3 | |||
| + Max Rohskopf | to Win | -175 | |
| + Bobby Green | to Win | -250 | |
| ODDS: | +120 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 11u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Bobby Green | to Win by Decision | +162 | |
| ODDS: | +162 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 7.86u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Curtis Blaydes | to Win by TKO/KO | -160 | |
| + Brianna Van Buren | to Win by Decision | -140 | |
| ODDS: | +179 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 11.14u |
| BET #3 | |||
| + Shane Burgos | to Win | -138 | |
| + Belal Muhammad | to Win | -138 | |
| + Gillian Robertson | to Win | -110 |
|
| ODDS: | +468 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 28.39u |
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Raquel Pennington | to Win | -163 | |
| + Roosevelt Roberts | to Win | -250 | |
| + Shane Burgos | to Win | -138 | |
| ODDS: | +290 | ||
| BET: | 10u | ||
| RETURN: | 38.96u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Gillian Robertson | to Win | -110 | |
| + Belal Muhammad | to Win | -138 | |
| + Brianna Van Buren | to Win | -210 | |
| ODDS: | +386 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 38.88u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Roxanne Modafferi | to Win | -125 | |
| + Oskar Piechota | to Win | -125 | |
| + Max Rohskopf | to Win | -175 | |
| + Bobby Green | to Win | -250 | |
| ODDS: | +613 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 42.77u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Curtis Blaydes | to Win by TKO/KO | -160 | |
| + Shane Burgos | to Win | -138 | |
| + Brianna Van Buren | to Win by Decision | -140 | |
| ODDS: | +380 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 24.02u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Bobby Green | to Win by Decision | +162 | |
| + Belal Muhammad | to Win | -138 | |
| + Gillian Robertson | to Win | -110 |
|
| ODDS: | +763 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 43.13u |
| BET #3 | |||
| + Max Rohskopf | to Win by Submission | +155 | |
| + Raquel Pennington | to Win | -163 | |
| + Roxanne Modafferi | to Win | -125 |
|
| ODDS: | +641 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 37.03u |
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
| + Gillian Robertson | $8300 | |
| + Frank Camacho | $8000 | |
| + Max Rohskopf | $8400 | |
| + Shane Burgos | $8700 | |
| + Curtis Blaydes | $9400 | |
| + Jim Miller | $7000 | |
Spares
| + | ||
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| + | ||
| + |
Betting Breakdowns
Curtis Blaydes -400 vs Alexander Volkov +300
- At HW anything can happen and with that in mind, a line like this is untouchable.
- Blaydes should take this under most scenarios, but the door is far from shut on Volkov.
- No Play.
Prop Bet:
- Curtis Blaydes to Win by TKO/KO -160
- While it doesn’t offer the big return of other finishes props, this is most likely the best option or this fight.
- Whether standing or from top position, Blaydes gets the stoppage.
DK Lineup:
- As mention above, Blaydes should get the finish here.
- Over 5 rounds, it will be difficult for Volkov (esp in the small cage) to avoid the wrestler.
- He is expensive but add him.
Shane Burgos -138 vs Josh Emmett +110
- The line opened around -155 and has been steadily improving in our favour.
- The public is on Burgos at 54% which is indicative of such a close fight.
- Burgos is the far longer and more active striker, he has to avoid eating Emmett’s power and he is good to go.
- Gold Play
Prop Bet:
- No Play.
DK Lineup:
- Burgos has solid stopping power and works at a pretty consistent rate.
- Emmett is tough but has been finished once and it hittable.
- Add Burgos.
Raquel Pennington -163 vs Marion Reneau +137
- Both girls need a win badly, but Raquel has demonstrated she has the ability to win at this level.
- Reneau has struggled in decisions and Pennington is difficult to finish.
- Look for Pennington augment her striking with takedowns.
- Pennington started around -175, but has moved down despite the 84% support on Tapology.
- Gold play for Rocky Pennington.
Prop Bet:
- No Play.
DK Lineup:
- No Play.
Lyman Good +110 vs Belal Muhammad -138
- Both fighters have an avenue to victory here, but Belal is the more likely to get it done.
- We have seen a little movement, but not much. The Tapology crew is heavily (70%) in favour of Belal.
- Volume and takedowns are the key here, forcing Lyman to work harder than he can maintain.
- The more diversified is the play- Gold Play on Muhammad.
- UPDATE: With Camacho/Frevola not happening a need for a more reliable Silver play knocks Belal down a peg.
- Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
- No Play
DK Lineup:
- No Play.
Jim Miller +200 vs Roosevelt Roberts -250
- Miller’s window for victory is limited based on the last few years and Roberts should be able to exploit it.
- This bout will be competitive early, but if Roberts can avoid the early submission he takes it over in R2 & R3.
- Roberts was a better deal at the open (-175), but he still helps us add a little pop to our top plays.
- Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
- No Play.
DK Lineup:
- With the majority of my picks on the card coming in as favourites, we have to go off the board to complete the lineup.
- If Miller is going to win this fight he will do it in the opening round and at just $7000 he opens up the door to add anyone else we want.
- Add him.
Bobby Green -250 vs Clay Guida +200
- Green has all the tools to win this fight, but he has before and still lost.
- The line has never been overly tempting and a complete pass would be fine.
- At the most, Green is an addon play for a low-level invest.
- Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
- See the Betting Scenario.
DK Lineup:
- No Play.
Tecia Torres +175 vs Brianna Van Buren -210
- Torres’ time appears to be coming to an end and BVB is just starting out.
- Depending on where you look, you can still grab her for sub -200 which is a good deal.
- Torres doesn’t have the offensive wrestling to attack BVB and if she gives up a couple of TDs she will be way behind with next to no finishing skills.
- I will mix her into my Silver plays.
Prop Bet:
- Brianna Van Buren to Win by Decision -140
- Torres has faced elite competition and gone the distance with all.
- BVB’s wrestling and top control should dictate the fight and eat up clock.
DK Lineup:
- No Play.
Marc-Andre Barriault +100 vs Oskar Piechota -125
-
- Talk about a must win for both guys.
- MAB hasn’t won a fight at this level yet, Piechota has.
- Piechota also posseses the type of skills (grappling) that has troubled the Canadians.
- If MAB can’t score the knockout, he will be in tough.
- Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
- No Play,
DK Lineup:
- No Play.
Cortney Casey -110 vs Gillian Robertson -110
- Casey is taking this bout on short notice and has struggled with longer fights
- She has also struggled with grappling oriented fighters which Robertson is.
- If Casey can stay vertical she good box Gillian up, but that is a big ask.
- The line has moved a but, but is still quite playable.
- Silver Play for Robertson.
Prop Bet:
- No Play.
DK Lineup:
- Robertson is a finisher and if she can’t stop her, the takedowns will be there.
- Solid price with someone with a solid track record.
Frank Camacho -340 vs Justin Jaynes +289
- Not enough to go on here and plenty of other options.
- No Play.
Prop Bet:
- No Play.
DK Lineup:
- With Camacho still set at $8000 from his first matchup and limited options elsewhere, let’s keep him in the lineup.
Roxanne Modafferi -125 vs Lauren Murphy +100
- After opening around -165, Roxy has come down nicely throughout the week.
- Some sites even have her sitting around -110 if you can find it.
- I was mixed on this fight. Murp has been gifted some close fights that could have gone either way.
- Roxy is aggressive and offers the grappling that has troubled Murphy.
- Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
- See the Betting Scenario section.
DK Lineup:
- No play.
Austin Hubbard +150 vs Max Rohskopf -175
- There is a lot of uncertainty here.
- Rohskopf possesses the skill set that has beat Hubbard in 2 of his 3 UFC fights, but he is green.
- Hubbard can with this fight if Max fades, but if he doesn’t he will be in trouble.
- Tread lightly.
- Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
- See the Betting Scenario.
DK Lineup:
- A first-round finisher with a high takedown frequency against an opponent that has issues with his takedown defense.
- At $8400, Rohskopf is a solid addition to the lineup.
Confidence List
1. Curtis Blaydes -400
2. Raquel Pennington -163
3. Roosevelt Roberts -250
4. Shane Burgos -138
5. Frank Camacho -340
====================
6. Belal Muhammad -138
7. Brianna Van Buren -210
8. Bobby Green -250
9. Gillian Robertson -110
10. Roxanne Modafferi -125
11. Max Rohskopf -175
12. Oskar Piechota -125
13.
Value Bet List
1. Shane Burgos -138
2. Gillian Robertson -110
3. Belal Muhammad -138
4. Raquel Pennington -163
5. Roxanne Modafferi -125
Counter Bets
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2.
3.
4.
5.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
C. Daniel Cormier
#1 Jon Jones
EPU Candidate(s)
1. Roxanne Modafferi/Lauren Murphy
I will take the win any way we can get it. I would lean towards Roxy by decision, but she could ground and pound Murphy into a stoppage if she can take her down on a regular basis. No Play.
2. Max Rohskopf to Win by Submission +155
5 fights and 5 submission wins. With a debuting fighter you want to get all the bang for your buck, this might be your best option for Max. The logical thought proccess would be that more experienced ground fighters couldn’t finish Hubbard on the mat, so Rohskopf shouldn’t be able. MMA is not always logical. Take a shot.
| EPU | ||||
| 47 | 24 | 23 | 51% | |
| 55 | 31 | 24 | 56% | |
| 47 | 20 | 27 | 43% | |
| 42 | 25 | 17 | 60% | |
| 32 | 13 | 19 | 41% | |
| 23 | 8 | 15 | 35% | |
FPO Candidate
1. Bobby Green to Win by Decision +162
Green hasn’t showcased a lot of finishing skills in his recent UFC career. He has also struggled to get the nod on the scorecard which is a big concern too. Guida’s durability isn’t what it used to be, but it could be okay to lose this one on the cards. Take Green by decision in a scenario that tends to come through more often then not.
| Final Prelim | ||||
| 46 | ||||
| 36 | 16 | 20 | 44% | |
| 39 | 26 | 13 | 67% | |
| 34 | 25 | 9 | 74% | |
| 33 | 22 | 11 | 67% | |
| 38 | 23 | 15 | 61% | |
| 19 | 11 | 8 | 58% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 35 | 17 | 18 | 49% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 31 | 13 | 18 | 42% | |
| 30 | 9 | 21 | 30% | |
| 10 | 4 | 6 | 40% |
HEF Candidate(s)
1. Shane Burgos -138 vs Josh Emmett +110
2. Raquel Pennington -163 vs Marion Reneau +137
3. Lyman Good +110 vs Belal Muhammad -138
4. Marc-Andre Barriault +100 vs Oskar Piechota -125
5. Cortney Casey -110 vs Gillian Robertson -110
6. Roxanne Modafferi -125 vs Lauren Murphy +100
| HEFs | ||||
| 177 | 93 | 84 | 53% | |
| 212 | 106 | 106 | 50% | |
| 179 | 110 | 69 | 61% | |
| 192 | 100 | 92 | 52% | |
| 217 | 100 | 117 | 46% | |
| 102 | 52 | 50 | 51% | |
| 181 | 97 | 84 | 54% | |
| 212 | 108 | 104 | 51% | |
| 179 | 87 | 92 | 49% | |
| 192 | 95 | 97 | 49% | |
| 211 | 110 | 101 | 52% | |
| 102 | 46 | 56 | 45% |
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.
