UFC on ESPN 11: Blaydes vs Volkov | Bet Pack Review

UFC on ESPN 11: Blaydes vs Volkov | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Shane Burgos  to Win -138
ODDS: -138
BET: 8u
RETURN: 13.8u

 

BET #2
+ Raquel Pennington  to Win -163
+ Roosevelt Roberts  to Win -250
ODDS: +126
BET: 8u
RETURN: 18.07u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Gillian Robertson  to Win -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 6u
RETURN: 11.45u

 

BET #2
+ Belal Muhammad  to Win -138
+ Brianna Van Buren  to Win -210
ODDS: +155
BET: 6u
RETURN: 15.28u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Roxanne Modafferi  to Win -125
ODDS: -125
BET: 5u
RETURN: 9u

 

BET #2
+ Oskar Piechota to Win -125
ODDS: -125
BET: 4u
RETURN: 7.2u

 

BET #3
+ Max Rohskopf  to Win -175
+ Bobby Green  to Win -250
ODDS: +120
BET: 5u
RETURN: 11u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Bobby Green  to Win by Decision +162
ODDS: +162
BET: 3u
RETURN: 7.86u

 

BET #2
+ Curtis Blaydes   to Win by TKO/KO -160
+ Brianna Van Buren  to Win by Decision  -140
ODDS: +179
BET: 4u
RETURN: 11.14u

BET #3
+ Shane Burgos  to Win -138 
+ Belal Muhammad to Win -138
+ Gillian Robertson  to Win -110
ODDS: +468
BET: 5u
RETURN: 28.39u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Raquel Pennington  to Win -163
+ Roosevelt Roberts  to Win -250
+ Shane Burgos  to Win -138
ODDS: +290
BET: 10u
RETURN: 38.96u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Gillian Robertson  to Win -110
+ Belal Muhammad  to Win -138
+ Brianna Van Buren  to Win -210
ODDS: +386
BET: 8u
RETURN: 38.88u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Roxanne Modafferi  to Win -125
+ Oskar Piechota to Win -125
+ Max Rohskopf  to Win -175
+ Bobby Green  to Win -250
ODDS: +613
BET: 6u
RETURN: 42.77u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Curtis Blaydes   to Win by TKO/KO -160
+ Shane Burgos  to Win -138 
+ Brianna Van Buren  to Win by Decision -140
ODDS: +380
BET: 5u
RETURN: 24.02u

 

BET #2
+ Bobby Green  to Win by Decision +162
+ Belal Muhammad to Win -138
+ Gillian Robertson  to Win -110
ODDS: +763
BET: 5u
RETURN: 43.13u

 

BET #3
+ Max Rohskopf  to Win by Submission +155
+ Raquel Pennington  to Win -163
+ Roxanne Modafferi  to Win -125
ODDS: +641
BET: 5u
RETURN: 37.03u

 

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Gillian Robertson $8300
+ Frank Camacho $8000
+ Max Rohskopf $8400
+ Shane Burgos $8700
+ Curtis Blaydes $9400
+ Jim Miller $7000

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Curtis Blaydes -400 vs Alexander Volkov +300

  • At HW anything can happen and with that in mind, a line like this is untouchable.
  • Blaydes should take this under most scenarios, but the door is far from shut on Volkov.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Curtis Blaydes to Win by TKO/KO -160
  • While it doesn’t offer the big return of other finishes props, this is most likely the best option or this fight.
  • Whether standing or from top position, Blaydes gets the stoppage.

DK Lineup:

  • As mention above, Blaydes should get the finish here.
  • Over 5 rounds, it will be difficult for Volkov (esp in the small cage) to avoid the wrestler.
  • He is expensive but add him.

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Shane Burgos -138 vs Josh Emmett +110

  • The line opened around -155 and has been steadily improving in our favour.
  • The public is on Burgos at 54% which is indicative of such a close fight.
  • Burgos is the far longer and more active striker, he has to avoid eating Emmett’s power and he is good to go.
  • Gold Play

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Burgos has solid stopping power and works at a pretty consistent rate.
  • Emmett is tough but has been finished once and it hittable.
  • Add Burgos.

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Raquel Pennington -163 vs Marion Reneau +137

  • Both girls need a win badly, but Raquel has demonstrated she has the ability to win at this level.
  • Reneau has struggled in decisions and Pennington is difficult to finish.
  • Look for Pennington augment her striking with takedowns.
  • Pennington started around -175, but has moved down despite the 84% support on Tapology.
  • Gold play for Rocky Pennington.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Lyman Good +110 vs Belal Muhammad -138

  • Both fighters have an avenue to victory here, but Belal is the more likely to get it done.
  • We have seen a little movement, but not much. The Tapology crew is heavily (70%) in favour of Belal.
  • Volume and takedowns are the key here, forcing Lyman to work harder than he can maintain.
  • The more diversified is the play- Gold Play on Muhammad.
  • UPDATE: With Camacho/Frevola not happening a need for a more reliable Silver play knocks Belal down a peg.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Jim Miller +200 vs Roosevelt Roberts -250

  • Miller’s window for victory is limited based on the last few years and Roberts should be able to exploit it.
  • This bout will be competitive early, but if Roberts can avoid the early submission he takes it over in R2 & R3.
  • Roberts was a better deal at the open (-175), but he still helps us add a little pop to our top plays.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • With the majority of my picks on the card coming in as favourites, we have to go off the board to complete the lineup.
  • If Miller is going to win this fight he will do it in the opening round and at just $7000 he opens up the door to add anyone else we want.
  • Add him.

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Bobby Green -250  vs Clay Guida +200

  • Green has all the tools to win this fight, but he has before and still lost.
  • The line has never been overly tempting and a complete pass would be fine.
  • At the most, Green is an addon play for a low-level invest.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Tecia Torres +175 vs Brianna Van Buren -210

  • Torres’ time appears to be coming to an end and BVB is just starting out.
  • Depending on where you look, you can still grab her for sub -200 which is a good deal.
  • Torres doesn’t have the offensive wrestling to attack BVB and if she gives up a couple of TDs she will be way behind with next to no finishing skills.
  • I will mix her into my Silver plays.

Prop Bet:

  • Brianna Van Buren to Win by Decision -140
  • Torres has faced elite competition and gone the distance with all.
  • BVB’s wrestling and top control should dictate the fight and eat up clock.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Marc-Andre Barriault +100 vs Oskar Piechota -125

    • Talk about a must win for both guys.
    • MAB hasn’t won a fight at this level yet, Piechota has.
    • Piechota also posseses the type of skills (grappling) that has troubled the Canadians.
    • If MAB can’t score the knockout, he will be in tough.
    • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play,

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Cortney Casey -110 vs Gillian Robertson -110

  • Casey is taking this bout on short notice and has struggled with longer fights
  • She has also struggled with grappling oriented fighters which Robertson is.
  • If Casey can stay vertical she good box Gillian up, but that is a big ask.
  • The line has moved a but, but is still quite playable.
  • Silver Play for Robertson.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Robertson is a finisher and if she can’t stop her, the takedowns will be there.
  • Solid price with someone with a solid track record.

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Frank Camacho -340 vs Justin Jaynes +289

  • Not enough to go on here and plenty of other options.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • With Camacho still set at $8000 from his first matchup and limited options elsewhere, let’s keep him in the lineup.

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Roxanne Modafferi -125 vs Lauren Murphy +100

  • After opening around -165, Roxy has come down nicely throughout the week.
  • Some sites even have her sitting around -110 if you can find it.
  • I was mixed on this fight. Murp has been gifted some close fights that could have gone either way.
  • Roxy is aggressive and offers the grappling that has troubled Murphy.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario section.

DK Lineup:

  • No play.

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Austin Hubbard +150 vs Max Rohskopf -175

  • There is a lot of uncertainty here.
  • Rohskopf possesses the skill set that has beat Hubbard in 2 of his 3 UFC fights, but he is green.
  • Hubbard can with this fight if Max fades, but if he doesn’t he will be in trouble.
  • Tread lightly.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario.

DK Lineup:

  • A first-round finisher with a high takedown frequency against an opponent that has issues with his takedown defense.
  • At $8400, Rohskopf is a solid addition to the lineup.

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Confidence List

1. Curtis Blaydes -400

2. Raquel Pennington -163

3. Roosevelt Roberts -250

4. Shane Burgos -138

5. Frank Camacho -340

====================

6. Belal Muhammad -138

7. Brianna Van Buren -210

8. Bobby Green -250

9. Gillian Robertson -110

10. Roxanne Modafferi -125

11. Max Rohskopf -175

12. Oskar Piechota -125

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Shane Burgos -138

2. Gillian Robertson -110

3. Belal Muhammad -138

4. Raquel Pennington -163

5. Roxanne Modafferi -125

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Roxanne Modafferi/Lauren Murphy

I will take the win any way we can get it. I would lean towards Roxy by decision, but she could ground and pound Murphy into a stoppage if she can take her down on a regular basis. No Play.

2. Max Rohskopf to Win by Submission +155

5 fights and 5 submission wins. With a debuting fighter you want to get all the bang for your buck, this might be your best option for Max. The logical thought proccess would be that more experienced ground fighters couldn’t finish Hubbard on the mat, so Rohskopf shouldn’t be able. MMA is not always logical. Take a shot.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
11
16
17
4 of 18 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
1861233%

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FPO Candidate

1. Bobby Green to Win by Decision +162

Green hasn’t showcased a lot of finishing skills in his recent UFC career. He has also struggled to get the nod on the scorecard which is a big concern too. Guida’s durability isn’t what it used to be, but it could be okay to lose this one on the cards. Take Green by decision in a scenario that tends to come through more often then not.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
1511473%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
93633%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Shane Burgos -138 vs Josh Emmett +110

2. Raquel Pennington -163 vs Marion Reneau +137

3. Lyman Good +110 vs Belal Muhammad -138

4. Marc-Andre Barriault +100 vs Oskar Piechota -125

5. Cortney Casey -110 vs Gillian Robertson -110

6. Roxanne Modafferi -125 vs Lauren Murphy +100

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
85424349%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
85394646%