When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Shane Burgos
to Win
-138
ODDS:
-138
BET:
8u
RETURN:
13.8u
BET #2
+ Raquel Pennington
to Win
-163
+ Roosevelt Roberts
to Win
-250
ODDS:
+126
BET:
8u
RETURN:
18.07u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Gillian Robertson
to Win
-110
ODDS:
-110
BET:
6u
RETURN:
11.45u
BET #2
+ Belal Muhammad
to Win
-138
+ Brianna Van Buren
to Win
-210
ODDS:
+155
BET:
6u
RETURN:
15.28u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Roxanne Modafferi
to Win
-125
ODDS:
-125
BET:
5u
RETURN:
9u
BET #2
+ Oskar Piechota
to Win
-125
ODDS:
-125
BET:
4u
RETURN:
7.2u
BET #3
+ Max Rohskopf
to Win
-175
+ Bobby Green
to Win
-250
ODDS:
+120
BET:
5u
RETURN:
11u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Bobby Green
to Win by Decision
+162
ODDS:
+162
BET:
3u
RETURN:
7.86u
BET #2
+ Curtis Blaydes
to Win by TKO/KO
-160
+ Brianna Van Buren
to Win by Decision
-140
ODDS:
+179
BET:
4u
RETURN:
11.14u
BET #3
+ Shane Burgos
to Win
-138
+ Belal Muhammad
to Win
-138
+ Gillian Robertson
to Win
-110
ODDS:
+468
BET:
5u
RETURN:
28.39u
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Raquel Pennington
to Win
-163
+ Roosevelt Roberts
to Win
-250
+ Shane Burgos
to Win
-138
ODDS:
+290
BET:
10u
RETURN:
38.96u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Gillian Robertson
to Win
-110
+ Belal Muhammad
to Win
-138
+ Brianna Van Buren
to Win
-210
ODDS:
+386
BET:
8u
RETURN:
38.88u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Roxanne Modafferi
to Win
-125
+ Oskar Piechota
to Win
-125
+ Max Rohskopf
to Win
-175
+ Bobby Green
to Win
-250
ODDS:
+613
BET:
6u
RETURN:
42.77u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Curtis Blaydes
to Win by TKO/KO
-160
+ Shane Burgos
to Win
-138
+ Brianna Van Buren
to Win by Decision
-140
ODDS:
+380
BET:
5u
RETURN:
24.02u
BET #2
+ Bobby Green
to Win by Decision
+162
+ Belal Muhammad
to Win
-138
+ Gillian Robertson
to Win
-110
ODDS:
+763
BET:
5u
RETURN:
43.13u
BET #3
+ Max Rohskopf
to Win by Submission
+155
+ Raquel Pennington
to Win
-163
+ Roxanne Modafferi
to Win
-125
ODDS:
+641
BET:
5u
RETURN:
37.03u
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
+ Gillian Robertson
$8300
+ Frank Camacho
$8000
+ Max Rohskopf
$8400
+ Shane Burgos
$8700
+ Curtis Blaydes
$9400
+ Jim Miller
$7000
Spares
+
+
+
+
Betting Breakdowns
Curtis Blaydes -400 vs Alexander Volkov +300
At HW anything can happen and with that in mind, a line like this is untouchable.
Blaydes should take this under most scenarios, but the door is far from shut on Volkov.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
Curtis Blaydes to Win by TKO/KO -160
While it doesn’t offer the big return of other finishes props, this is most likely the best option or this fight.
Whether standing or from top position, Blaydes gets the stoppage.
DK Lineup:
As mention above, Blaydes should get the finish here.
Over 5 rounds, it will be difficult for Volkov (esp in the small cage) to avoid the wrestler.
He is expensive but add him.
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Shane Burgos -138 vs Josh Emmett +110
The line opened around -155 and has been steadily improving in our favour.
The public is on Burgos at 54% which is indicative of such a close fight.
Burgos is the far longer and more active striker, he has to avoid eating Emmett’s power and he is good to go.
Gold Play
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Burgos has solid stopping power and works at a pretty consistent rate.
Emmett is tough but has been finished once and it hittable.
Add Burgos.
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Raquel Pennington -163 vs Marion Reneau +137
Both girls need a win badly, but Raquel has demonstrated she has the ability to win at this level.
Reneau has struggled in decisions and Pennington is difficult to finish.
Look for Pennington augment her striking with takedowns.
Pennington started around -175, but has moved down despite the 84% support on Tapology.
Gold play for Rocky Pennington.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Lyman Good +110 vs Belal Muhammad -138
Both fighters have an avenue to victory here, but Belal is the more likely to get it done.
We have seen a little movement, but not much. The Tapology crew is heavily (70%) in favour of Belal.
Volume and takedowns are the key here, forcing Lyman to work harder than he can maintain.
The more diversified is the play- Gold Play on Muhammad.
UPDATE: With Camacho/Frevola not happening a need for a more reliable Silver play knocks Belal down a peg.
Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Jim Miller +200 vs Roosevelt Roberts -250
Miller’s window for victory is limited based on the last few years and Roberts should be able to exploit it.
This bout will be competitive early, but if Roberts can avoid the early submission he takes it over in R2 & R3.
Roberts was a better deal at the open (-175), but he still helps us add a little pop to our top plays.
Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
With the majority of my picks on the card coming in as favourites, we have to go off the board to complete the lineup.
If Miller is going to win this fight he will do it in the opening round and at just $7000 he opens up the door to add anyone else we want.
Add him.
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Bobby Green -250 vs Clay Guida +200
Green has all the tools to win this fight, but he has before and still lost.
The line has never been overly tempting and a complete pass would be fine.
At the most, Green is an addon play for a low-level invest.
Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Tecia Torres +175 vs Brianna Van Buren -210
Torres’ time appears to be coming to an end and BVB is just starting out.
Depending on where you look, you can still grab her for sub -200 which is a good deal.
Torres doesn’t have the offensive wrestling to attack BVB and if she gives up a couple of TDs she will be way behind with next to no finishing skills.
I will mix her into my Silver plays.
Prop Bet:
Brianna Van Buren to Win by Decision -140
Torres has faced elite competition and gone the distance with all.
BVB’s wrestling and top control should dictate the fight and eat up clock.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Marc-Andre Barriault +100 vs Oskar Piechota -125
Talk about a must win for both guys.
MAB hasn’t won a fight at this level yet, Piechota has.
Piechota also posseses the type of skills (grappling) that has troubled the Canadians.
If MAB can’t score the knockout, he will be in tough.
Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
No Play,
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Cortney Casey -110 vs Gillian Robertson -110
Casey is taking this bout on short notice and has struggled with longer fights
She has also struggled with grappling oriented fighters which Robertson is.
If Casey can stay vertical she good box Gillian up, but that is a big ask.
The line has moved a but, but is still quite playable.
Silver Play for Robertson.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Robertson is a finisher and if she can’t stop her, the takedowns will be there.
Solid price with someone with a solid track record.
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Frank Camacho -340 vs Justin Jaynes +289
Not enough to go on here and plenty of other options.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
With Camacho still set at $8000 from his first matchup and limited options elsewhere, let’s keep him in the lineup.
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Roxanne Modafferi -125 vs Lauren Murphy +100
After opening around -165, Roxy has come down nicely throughout the week.
Some sites even have her sitting around -110 if you can find it.
I was mixed on this fight. Murp has been gifted some close fights that could have gone either way.
Roxy is aggressive and offers the grappling that has troubled Murphy.
Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario section.
DK Lineup:
No play.
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Austin Hubbard +150 vs Max Rohskopf -175
There is a lot of uncertainty here.
Rohskopf possesses the skill set that has beat Hubbard in 2 of his 3 UFC fights, but he is green.
Hubbard can with this fight if Max fades, but if he doesn’t he will be in trouble.
Tread lightly.
Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario.
DK Lineup:
A first-round finisher with a high takedown frequency against an opponent that has issues with his takedown defense.
At $8400, Rohskopf is a solid addition to the lineup.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
I will take the win any way we can get it. I would lean towards Roxy by decision, but she could ground and pound Murphy into a stoppage if she can take her down on a regular basis. No Play.
2. Max Rohskopf to Win by Submission +155
5 fights and 5 submission wins. With a debuting fighter you want to get all the bang for your buck, this might be your best option for Max. The logical thought proccess would be that more experienced ground fighters couldn’t finish Hubbard on the mat, so Rohskopf shouldn’t be able. MMA is not always logical. Take a shot.
EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47
24
23
51%
2016 Picks
55
31
24
56%
2017 Picks
47
20
27
43%
2018 Picks
42
25
17
60%
2019 Picks
32
13
19
41%
2020 Picks
23
8
15
35%
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FPO Candidate
1. Bobby Green to Win by Decision +162
Green hasn’t showcased a lot of finishing skills in his recent UFC career. He has also struggled to get the nod on the scorecard which is a big concern too. Guida’s durability isn’t what it used to be, but it could be okay to lose this one on the cards. Take Green by decision in a scenario that tends to come through more often then not.
Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36
16
20
44%
2016
39
26
13
67%
2017
34
25
9
74%
2018
33
22
11
67%
2019
38
23
15
61%
2020
19
11
8
58%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29
12
17
41%
2016 Picks
35
17
18
49%
2017 Picks
29
12
17
41%
2018 Picks
31
13
18
42%
2019 Picks
30
9
21
30%
2020 Picks
10
4
6
40%
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HEF Candidate(s)
1. Shane Burgos -138 vs Josh Emmett +110
2. Raquel Pennington -163 vs Marion Reneau +137
3. Lyman Good +110 vs Belal Muhammad -138
4. Marc-Andre Barriault +100 vs Oskar Piechota -125
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.