UFC Fight Night 48 & 49- Post Fight Stock Report & the Bet Pack


Colby Covington: Yes Covington was a heavy favorite & did what he was supposed to do but that was an absolute beatdown. I can’t wait to see how Covington fairs when he gets a step up in competition.

Yuta Sasaki: Sasaki definitely lived up to the hype by submitting Delorme in just over a minute. I still think the UFC will keep him fighting in Asia until he picks up a few more wins but if he keeps winning then they’ll have to see how he fairs against tough competition in the States or Brazil.

Wang Sai: The TUF China runner up came in with a chip on his shoulder after being robbed by the judges in the Finale & it showed. He easily won the first 2 rounds & picked up the W. Sai did seem to tire in the 3rd but that’s because he was so aggressive early on. Sai showed that he does have potential & will probably fight the next time the UFC goes to China.

Zhang Lipeng: Lipeng really tightened up his game after controversially winning the Welterweight TUF China Tournament. Lipeng is not going to ever compete for a title but he could be a staple on the China shows.

Tyron Woodley: Now that’s how you bounce back after a loss!! Stun Gun came out wild & Woodley knocked him out in 61 seconds. I questioned Woodley’s mindset because he’s from Ferguson, MO but he was focused & rocked the arena with his TKO. He then followed it up by showing class & allowing Stun Gun to talk to his crowd. I want to see Woodley fight Matt Brown next.

Beneil Dariush: After a pretty good 1st round for Martin, Dariush was the fresher man. He was able to lock in a submission in the 2nd & ended the fight. I really liked Martin coming into this fight but Dariush shut me up & showed me something. I definitely can’t wait to see Dariush fight again.

Chas Skelly: Skelly was able to pull off the upset & submit Ninimaki in under 3 minutes. He showed a lot of promise by finishing Ninimaki so quick. He definitely needs a step up in competition.

Clay Collard: I will say that Collard’s stock went slightly up because he took the fight on such short notice & was harder to drop than Michael Myers. He is still very raw but he’s young & has one hell of a chin. I would like to see what he can do after a full camp. I know I will be glued to the tv the next time he fights.

Thales Leites: Thales Leites 2.0 is for real!!  After a close first round, Leites decided to let his hands go & he gave Carmont his first knockout loss in just under 10 years. This is a brand new Thales Leites since coming back to the UFC. I want to see him fight a top 10 guy & would love to see him matched up against CB Dollaway.

Jordan Mein: Mein was able to put all of his distractions behind him & knockout Pyle in just over a minute. Mein came out aggressive & was very impressive. It’s time for Mein to be ranked in the top 15 & get another top 15 opponent. Mein seems to be a future contender in the welterweight division.

Rafael Dos Anjos: In the shocker of the weekend, Dos Anjos came out swinging & knocked out Bendo half way through the first round. I was absolutely stunned! This wasn’t the Dos Anjos that got ragdolled by Nurmagomedov in April. Dos Anjos was very impressive but I still think he’s at least 2 more wins from a title shot. I think he should fight Bobby Green next & Nurmagomedov should face the winner of Alvarez vs Cerrone. Dos Anjos stock definitely rose more than anyone else this weekend because of how difficult it has been to finish Henderson.


Refs & Judges: They are just too inconsistent & it was more obvious this weekend than any other. First Howard Hughes gets tossed by Dana White after being part of 2 horrible decisions to kick off the Macao card & that corrected the judging for that event. Then there was a few questionable scores on the Tulsa card. I still believe Lazaro did enough to win the fight. I felt he won the first 2 rounds because he outlanded Vick in each of those rounds & also got multiple takedowns. The 30-27 in favor of Vick was a joke.

As For the Referees, You had the Macao refs allowing guys to get absolutely killed when the fight should have been stopped long before it was. Then you have Big John jumping in super quick after Bendo hits the ground & appears to attempt to grab Dos Anjos’s leg. I have no problem with the stoppage but there needs to be consistency. I know we can always complain about refs & judges but this weekend showed how far apart each ref & judge is from the next one.

Roland Delorme: He was once a bright prospect but now he’s lost 3 in a row & realistically is 1-4 in his last 5 even though 1 of his losses got overturned due to a failed drug test by Rivera. Delorme just isn’t a UFC caliber fighter & that showed by him barely being able to last a minute with Sasaki.

Jianping Yang: He just looked scared to engage for the first 2 rounds. It was a very boring fight but that was because of Yang. I understand that there’s going to be a learning curve for upcoming Asian fighters since they’re about 10 years behind but we should get use to clunkers like this while in Asia for the next couple years.

Dong Hyun Kim: Stun Gun has gone from a grinder to a man possessed to put on a show for the crowd & get into fire fights. It’s just not a smart gameplan & he will find himself on the losing end against better or heavy handed fighters if he doesn’t calm it down. Stun Gun is a great grappler & he needs to find a happy medium between his striking & grappling to be successful in the long run.

Aaron Phillips: It’s hard to say a relatively unknown fighter’s stock has dropped but his TDD is absolutely horrible. I get that he’s a good striker but if he doesn’t sure up his TDD then he won’t be fighting too much longer. It’s hard to win fights off of your back. If he doesn’t get cut from the UFC then he needs take at least 6 months off just to train & get better before even accepting another fight. I do see potential but he’s got a long ways to go.

Francis Carmont: This is it for him in the UFC right?? He hasn’t looked good in a while & just suffered his first knockout loss in about 10 years. Carmont has now lost 3 in a row & I think he’s done. I doubt he will retire even if he gets released so he has Bellator or WSOF written all over him.

Mike Pyle: Father time is catching up to him. He turns 39 next month & I just don’t know how much longer he will be able to compete since his chin seems to be done.

Benson Henderson: Bendo needs to take some time off & really figure out the direction he wants to go with the rest of his career. That was a pretty bad TKO loss to Dos Anjos. Maybe it’s finally time for Henderson to move up to 170 because he’s a big lightweight & I doubt he will get a title shot anytime soon.


Injuries & Late Replacements: There were too many fights that had  people making their debuts on very short notice due to injuries. I know these guys train hard but they have got to figure out a way to stay healthy enough to make it to the fight.

Michael Bisping & Cung Le: Neither one deserved to have their stock go up or down. Bisping did what he was supposed to do & out dirty boxed a 42 year old off a 22 month layoff. Cung Le showed a lot of heart but it was unrealistic to think he would be able to win the fight after it got out of the first round. Hopefully Bisping finally finishes his rivalry with Luke Rockhold by facing him within the next couple months. As for Le, it’s time to retire. He was beat up & doesn’t need to fight because he is such a big name in Asia. Le will always have opportunites that don’t involve him getting a beating like that. Plus, I still think Le will fail his drug test.

Wilson Reis: Reis looked ok but he was a big favorite against a UFC newcomer taking the fight on very short notice. I don’t think he was all that impressive. I want to see Reis get a step up in competition so we can see if he will be any good at his new weight class.

Ben Saunders: It was a good showing for Saunders in his UFC return but his stock can’t go up because of the level of competition. I loved seeing him finish the fight with an omoplata but I want to see him fight someone already established in the UFC.

Max Holloway: He was the biggest favorite of the entire day & it was expected that he would finish his opponent because Collard was making his UFC debut on about a week’s notice. Holloway definitely did what he was supposed to. He remained patient despite hitting Collard with everything that he had & Collard kept coming at him. I really like Holloway & can’t wait to see him fight a ranked guy again.


Fight Night 48

Milana Dudieva defeated Elizabeth Phillips by split decision 30-27, -28-29, & 29-28.

Royston Wee defeated Yao Zhikui by split decision 29-28, 27-30, & 29-28.

Colby Covington defeated Wang Anying by submission (punches).

Yuta Sasaki deated Roland Delorme by submission (RNC).

Alberto Mina defeated Shinsho Anzai by TKO.

Wang Sai defeated Danny Mitchell by unanimous decision Decision 29-28 on all cards.

Ning Guangyou defeated Yang Jianping by unanimous Decision 29-28 on all cards.

Zhang Lipeng defeated Brendan O’Reilly by unanimous Decision 29-28, 30-27, & 30-27.

Tyron Woodley defeated Dong Hyun Kim by TKO.

Michael Bisping defeated Cung Le by TKO.

Fight Night 49

Wilson Reis defeated Joby Sanchez by unanimous decision 29-28 on all cards.

Ben Saunders defeated Chris Heatherly by submission (omoplata).

Matt Hobar defeated Aaron Phillips by unanimous decision 29-28 on all cards.

Beneil Dariush defeated Tony Martin by submission (arm-triangle choke).

Neil Magny defeated Alex Garcia by unanimous decision 29-28, 30-27, & 30-27.

Chas Skelly defeated Tom Ninimaki by submission (RNC).

James Vick defeated Valmir Lazaro by unanimous decision 29-28, 30-27, & 29-28.

Max Holloway defeated Clay Collard by TKO.

Thales Leites defeated Francis Carmont by KO.

Jordan Mein defeated Mike Pyle by KO.

Rafael Dos Anjos defeated Benson Henderson by TKO.

UFC Fight Night 48 & 49

Gold Plays

Parlay #1
Selection 1: THALES LEITES $2.38
Price: $2.38 x Bet: $100
Payout: $238
Parlay #2
Selection 1: TONY MARTIN $2.05
Selection 2: NEIL MAGNY $2.28
Price: $4.68 x Bet: $100
Payout: $468
Parlay #3
Selection 1: MICHAEL BISPING $1.35
Selection 2: DANNY MITCHELL $1.50
Selection 3: MAX HOLLOWAY $1.25
Price: $2.54 x Bet: $100
Payout: $254
Silver Plays
Parlay #1
Selection 1: MICHAEL BISPING to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $3.10
Price: $3.10 x Bet: $100
Payout: $310
Parlay #2
Selection 1: WALMIR LAZARO $2.40
Selection 2: TYRON WOODLEY $1.61
Selection 3: BRENDAN O’REILLY $1.67
Price: $6.46 x Bet: $100
Payout: $646
Parlay #3
Selection 1: AARON PHILLIPS $2.86
Selection 2: ELIZABETH PHILLIPS $2.22
Selection 3: TOM NIINIMAKI $1.79
Price: $11.37 x Bet: $100
Payout: $1137
Bronze Plays
Parlay #1
Selection 1: RAFAEL DOS ANJOS $4.15
Price: $4.15 x Bet: $100
Payout: $415
Parlay #2
Selection 1: THALES LEITES $2.38
Selection 2: TONY MARTIN $2.05
Selection 3: WALMIR LAZARO $2.40
Selection 4: NEIL MAGNY $2.28
Price: $26.70 x Bet: $100
Payout: $2670
Parlay #1
Selection 1: THALES LEITES $2.38
Selection 2: TONY MARTIN $2.05
Selection 3: WALMIR LAZARO $2.40
Selection 4: NEIL MAGNY $2.28
Selection 5: MICHAEL BISPING to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $3.10
Selection 6: Jordan Mein to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $2.15
Price: $177.95 x Bet: $100
Payout: $17795

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns


We are opening things up with an upset pick, an EPU, after the last shows first 2 dogs went 0-2. Dudieva is a good submission fighter, but positionally she is flawed. If she can’t hit her sub, she tends to spend a lot of time in disadvantageous positions which cost her with the judges. On the feet I don’t see either girls having a clear cut advantage so the top position that Phillips should be able to hold will be huge on the scorecards. I also feel she will have a slight cardio edge in the second half. There are still lots of unknowns here, but I will be taking Phillips to win as a Silver Package single bet or as part of a parlay in the Bronze plays.


I think Wee wins this bout, but with both fighters being so inexperienced and having some many fights to choose from this weekend- from a betting stand point this is a No Play.


I like Rollie as a fighter, but he seems to struggle against guys that can out grapple him. To be brutally honest there wasn’t much to go on as far as footage is concerned or Sasaki, but from what I have read and the minimal amount I have seen he appears to be the type that will give Roland fits. At $1.77 he has some decent pop, but the level of uncertainty has me leaning towards the Bronze package parlays.


The trouble that Sai had with the grappling of his first UFC opponent should be further magnified here by the aggressive, unorthodox, and far more refined skills of Mitchell. The manner in which Mithcell held his own in his debut against a very skilled ground fighter was quite impressive, despite the loss. There is always the risk of picking against home fighters when the UFC ventures out into a relatively new market, but I just don’t see the Chinese MMA scene being at a level where we need to worry about that against proven fighters. I have Mitchell sitting on the fence between Silver and Gold. If this was the only card on this day he is in the Gold section, but there are a lot to pick from here.


Mina has proven himself capable, but against lesser competition. Anzai had a good run at Middleweight, but his build is for suited for 170 and he is making the cut. Unfortunately, the new division combined with the debut factors on both sides creates a lot of uncertainty. Too much. I may consider Anzai an option for the Bronze pack, but this fight could be worth just as much to leave off your bet card.


I prefer O’Reilly here over Zhang, but if there is a local that is going to pick up a win against a foreign fighter then Zhang could be that ticket. He isn’t afraid to go after submissions, which is a blessing and a curse. If he hits them, its gold, but if he misses he losses position and has been submitted many times as a result. O’Reilly is till raw, but his wrestling/grappling capabilities should be enough to exploit Zhang’s mistakes. I will probably toss a bet down here on a lower level parlay, nothing more.


This should be a good fight while it lasts, unless it goes deep and they both gas. DHK has developed a new aggressive, relentless, and reckless/ sloppy style. It is those last 2 adjectives that concern me. He has stopped his last 2 opponents, but he has been hit a lot in both fights and Woodley isn’t the type of guy you want connecting more then normal. I think Woodley will grow as a fighter after the loss to Rory and will deal with the pressure that Kim brings much more effectively. I could also see Tyron changing levels for takedowns when Kim comes forward which could be huge. If DHK’s gas tank was better I would consider him here, but he will most likely tire as fast or faster then T-Wood will. Woodley works for me in the Silver package as a parlay play. I see potential for DHK win, but most scenario and comparisons point at the American taking it. I am also looking at a possible prop play here, time will tell if it pans out.


Bisping is teetering on the cusp of the ‘senior circuit’. A series of fights involving guys that are at the end of their careers, but are still willing to fight and will never get back in the title picture as a legit contender. If he can put together a good performance and show his last bout was the product of some ring rust then he will get right back in the conversation. If he can’t, even if he wins in less then spectacular fashion, then he will be booked as such and start to wind it down. I like Bisping’s cardio and base to be too much for Le, but he will need to be careful in the early going. That being said, I don’t want to call Le’s KO of Franklin a fluke, but if you re-watch the fight Le looked bad. He was slow, couldn’t really keep up with Franklin and was missing the majority of his strikes until he landed one big one. Bisping wins this bout short off another fortunate connection by Le, but his price isn’t great. He may add a little to a parlay at the Gold level, but considering the number of fights on this day I won’t overextend my use of the Count.


On paper and based on the footage Reis should take this fight, but I am a little hesitant to pull the trigger. Sanchez is filling in as a late replacement and making his debut against a fighter that is cutting down to Flyweight for the first time. That creates some uncertainty and it is probably not worth getting too involved in this fight as a result. I will take a pass here.


Welcome back to the UFC Ben, but I wont be backing anyone in this bout. The price is too low to bet on Saunders and Heatherly didn’t show me enough to back him even with the above $4 tag. I think the Under could be an option here with Saunder’s aggressive style, but nothing else.


Here is my first of several UFN 49 upset picks. I like what I see in Phillips and the reason he lost vs Sicilia was some positional mistakes that could a) have been the result of some debut nerves and b) they can be cleaned up and addressed in camp. Additionally, he is cutting to 135 and that should help him to avoid get outmuscled by his opposition. For Hobar I wasn’t that impressed with he strikes that put him down in his debut. Munhoz is a killer, but Matty looked stunned of some pretty regular looking impacts. If that is the case I could see Phillips lighting him up with his kicks, pounding him to the body, and eventually going up stairs for the finish. If Hobar can get his wrestling going that is his key to victory, but I was impressed with Aaron and see him taking this home. I have a couple of plays in mind for the Gold Single bets so that pushes Phillips down to the Silver plays- either a single bet or doubling him up with another.


Here is another upset play and it will break into the gold pack. Both guys are solid grappler, but I like Martin’s wrestling, size, and what appearance to be a strength advantage to be too much for Beneil. I was impressed with Martin prior to his debut and get got off to a strong start, before his opponent busted him up on the feet. Dariush will not have that type of success. I am looking at one of two options for Martin here. Either a large single play or pairing him up with another for parlay bet.


I think I might have found Martin’s dance partner. Magny needs to survive the early rush from Garcia and then he should be able to take control of the fight from then on out. His massive reach advantage and improved used of said reach will show up here. Garcia is a monster, but Magny seems to be coming into his own and appears built to exploit Alex’s shortcomings. He has to stay off his back, but as Garcia gasses out his wrestling will become less and less impactful. My play here is to team Martin and Magny up together and get some decent bang for your buck in the Gold package.


This is a fight that I had to look long and hard at to see who I favoured. I was really impressed with Niinimaki’s ability to handle Yahya on the mat and he was winning versus Backstrom prior to the initial knee that eventually lead to the end of the bout. For Skelly, he wasn’t able to get his wrestling game going against Bektic whatsoever. That does not bode well for a guy that needs to dominate on the mat to consistently win fights. Niinimaki has to be careful, but I see him being the better striker and finding a little more success on the floor. He has a solid price and offers a lot to a parlay bet. I think he makes the cut for a gold play, but I am not 100% decided yet.


This line is the product of people not knowing who Lazaro is. He is a nasty striker out of a camp full of nasty strikers- Nova Unia0. His speed and leg kicks will be a handful for Vick who is coming in off a lengthy layoff and less then a minute total UFC experience. If Vick had a better wrestling game to augment his submission capabilities then I wouldn’t be so high on Lazaro but I think his defensive wrestling will be good enough to keep this fight vertical where he is better. Of course he is a new fighter which will prevent him from making the cut as a Gold bet but he certainly could be a top Silver play.


Hollaway wins, but the risk/ reward isn’t there. Collard is aggressive and Max will exploit his striking tendencies until the cows come home. The bigger question here is, can Max stop him inside the distance. I think he can and this will probably show up in the props section.


I don’t understand how Carmont keeps being pegged as the favourite. After a strong start to his UFC career he sputtered his way through a couple of controversial wins and has now lost 2 in a row. Leites has righted the ship and is moving up the ranks after 3 pretty solid wins. He has always been a strong grappler, but his striking is making strides. All he has to do is land a few opportune takedowns and Carmont’s lack of volume on the feet will make it too hard for him to catch up. I could see this bout playing out similar to Carmont/ Jacare were Francis didn’t find his grove until it was too late. Leites gets a push as one of my top plays, most likely #1 in the Gold pack.

JORDAN MEIN $1.46 vs MIKE PYLE $2.96

This is a tough fight to call and the odds are not indicative of how real the possibility of Pyle winning this bout is. I wouldn’t be shocked in the least to see Pyle get his hand raised- by knockout, by decision, or even by submission. He has a multitude of weapons and while Mein is very talented his defense is far from impenetrable. The reason I went with Mein in the end is because his striking repertoire is so impressive and Pyle tends to get caught against heavy hitters. Mein does offer a bit more then many of the other heavier favourites on this card, but there is also some risk involved I think he fits into the Silver pack, but could slip as far as Bronze before we are all said and done.


This prediction came down to the 11th hour. I was on RDA, then Henderson, and finally switched back to Henderson. I love the former champ’s experience in these types of 5 round high profile bouts and that is what had me leaning his way. For RDA I like his activity on the feet to play a major role. Henderson has really snuck the last 2 fights out; he arguably lost the Thomson fight and then submitted Khabilov in a fight that he might have been losing or was at least close. Henderson has a tendency to offer a lot on the feet, but not actually connect. That doesn’t play well with the judges, but he gets away with it. A lot of people are predicting that Bendo will win the bout based on his wrestling advantage, but in recent memory he has just a single win based on that design- Nate Diaz. I think the grappling will be close and RDA does a little more on the feet. It could be close, it could be a split, but he has a much better chance then the odds suggest. For playing purposes he slips a little simply because Henderson has been so good and pulling out wins in fights like this.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)





5. TONY MARTIN $2.05



7. ROYSTON WEE $1.34

8. NEIL MAGNY $2.28


10. WILSON REIS $1.36

11. JORDAN MEIN $1.46






17. YUTA SASAKI $1.77




Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. THALES LEITES $2.38 It has been a long time since Carmont has put together a solid effort and Leites brings a lot of momentum with him. I really like this bet.
2. TONY MARTIN $2.05 The line is moving here, but as the dog he is a solid bet to come out on top.
3. WALMIR LAZARO $2.40 A relative unknown with a great skill set from an excellent camp against an inexperienced TUFer.
4. NEIL MAGNY $2.28 He has to endure the early attack and then he should be in complete control of this fight.
5. RAFAEL DOS ANJOS $4.15 He beats out the rest of the underdogs because of his plus $4 price tag.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. DONG HYUN KIM $2.58 He has got the job done in his last 2 bouts and if you aren’t a fan of T-Wood then DHK is the way to go here.
2. JOBY SANCHEZ $3.60 Reis is a great grappler, but if the cut goes poorly he could gas out.
3. MIKE PYLE $2.96 I am willing to take Mein in a parlay bet, but Pyle has the tools to win this fight.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.

Prop Bets-

DONG HYUN KIM/ TYRON WOODLEY Total Rounds Ovr 2.5 $1.63- There is a good chance this fight could end early, but if both guys go for it early and neither finishes we could a sloppy wall and stall second half of the fight. Remember some of the best bets to go Under pay out on the Over very well.

MICHAEL BISPING to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $3.10- I simply cannot see Le going the full 5 rounds with Bisping and not gassing and then getting overwhelmed by relentless barrages until he breaks. Good price here.

BEN SAUNDERS/ CHRIS HEATHERLY Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.15- Saunders will be looking to make a splash in his return against a very inexperienced and underdeveloped opponent. Look for him to use his height to set up the Thai clinch and follow-up knee strikes.

NEIL MAGNY/ ALEX GARCIA Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.55- This line is entirely built off of Garcia’s early blitz, I think Magny endures/ defends it so the Over is the play here.

MAX HOLLOWAY to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $2.55- Holloway doesn’t have that monster stopping power, but his ability to hurt his opponent to the body can bring about the same result. Additionally, if Collard tires or just gets broken down Holloway will put it on him until the ref pulls him off.

Jordan Mein to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $2.15- Pyle has had difficulty with heavy hitters and if Mein gets hi hurt he knows how to finish. The Under 1.5 is an option, but Pyle is veteran and could quite possibly take this fight into the second half.