UFC FIGHT NIGHT 173: BRUNSON VS. SHAHBAZYAN | PREMIUM BET PACK

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 173: BRUNSON VS. SHAHBAZYAN | PREMIUM BET PACK

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Kevin Holland  to Win -210
+ Vicente Luque  to Win -200
ODDS: +121
BET: 10u
RETURN: 22.14u

 

BET #2
+ Lando Vannata  to Win -160
ODDS: -160
BET: 7u
RETURN: 11.38u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Ed Herman  to Win +140
ODDS: +140
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12u

 

BET #2
+ Joanne Calderwood  to Win -150
+ Jonathan Martinez  to Win -250
ODDS: +133
BET: 5u
RETURN: 11.67u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Johnny Munoz  to Win +135
ODDS: +135
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9.4u

 

BET #2
+ Edmen Shahbazyan  to Win by TKO/KO -135
+ Kevin Holland to Win  -210
ODDS: +157
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12.85u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Chris Gutierrez  to Win by TKO/KO +300
ODDS: +300
BET: 4u
RETURN: 16u

 

BET #2
+ Vicente Luque   to Win Inside the Distance +130
+ Joanne Calderwood  to Win -150
ODDS: +283
BET: 4u
RETURN: 15.33u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Kevin Holland  to Win -210
+ Vicente Luque  to Win -200
+ Lando Vannata  to Win -160
ODDS: +260
BET: 10u
RETURN: 35.98u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Joanne Calderwood  to Win -150
+ Jonathan Martinez  to Win -250
+ Ed Herman  to Win +140
ODDS: +460
BET: 7u
RETURN: 39.2u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Edmen Shahbazyan  to Win by TKO/KO -135
+ Kevin Holland to Win  -210
+ Johnny Munoz  to Win +135
ODDS: +504
BET: 6u
RETURN: 36.23u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Ed Herman  to Win +140
+ Johnny Munoz  to Win +135
+ Lando Vannata  to Win -160
ODDS: +817
BET: 6u
RETURN: 54.99u

 

BET #2
+ Vicente Luque   to Win Inside the Distance +130
+ Joanne Calderwood  to Win -150
+ Chris Gutierrez  to Win by TKO/KO +300
ODDS: +1433
BET: 5u
RETURN: 76.67u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Edmen Shahbazyan $9100
Vicente Luque $8800
Ed Herman $7900
Lando Vanatta $8200
+ Johnny Munoz $7200
Jonathan Martinez $8600

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Derek Brunson +250 vs Edmen Shahbazyan -334
  • Brunson seems like a logical next step for a fighter on the rise like Shahbazyan, but he is still a big test.
  • Brunson has only lost to championship-caliber opposition
  • The line is moving against us here with ES opening around -270 which was playable, this seems like too little of a return for the risk.
  • I will take a look at a Prop option here, but for me, straight up, this is a pass.

Prop Bet:

  • Edmen Shahbazyan to Win by TKO/KO -135
  • Brunson has been knocked out 5-times which is a big part of the equation here.
  • Shahabazyan is a finisher with the skills to put Brunson down.
  • If this was a 5-round fight, I could see Edmen taking a more patient approach to avoid gassing out- but that is not the case here.
  • Brunson’s defensive wrestling should prevent a submission unless we see a knockdown and sub.
  • Edmen continues his finishing ways.

DK Lineup:

  • At $9100, Edmen is a little more affordable then I expected.
  • With each fighters’ history of finishes, it isn’t hard to see why this fight should be added.
  • Look for an early knockout for Shahbazyan.
  • Add him.

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Joanne Calderwood -150 vs Jennifer Maia +125
  • Calderwood is taking a major risk here, fighting with a title shot already granted.
  • We have seen that cost a number of fighters in the past- the pressure is on JoJo.
  • The line has moved a bit from roughly -130, but this is still playable.
  • Calderwood should be able to land on Maia as she moves forward and/or score a takedown to earn a decision.
  • Calderwood’s success at FLW and Maia struggles have been largely related to TDs- that continues here.
  • The short notice prevents this from being a top play.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Randy Brown +170 vs Vicente Luque -200
  • I don’t like MMA Math because it discredits style matchup, improvements, and experience gained.
  • That being said, Luque is 4-1 while Brown is 1-3 against the same group of 4 fighters.
  • Moreover, Luque has faced far better competition while Brown lost to the top guys he faced and Luque beat them.
  • Unless Luque’s aggressive style catches up to him and Brown knocks him out- this is Luque’s fight to win everywhere.
  • I have Luque at -250 or beyond, good value here.
  • Gold Play for the Brazilian.

Prop Bet:

  • Vicente Luque to Win Inside the Distance +130
  • Luque has submission skills and knockout power- both could take Brown out.
  • With 10 of Vicente’ Luque’s 11 wins coming by finish those numbers alone are encouraging.
  • Seeing Brown get KOed by Price with a hammer fist off his back is also encouraging.

DK Lineup:

  • It’s Vicente Luque, do I need to say much else?
  • See above if you need it.
  • Add him.

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Bobby Green +130 vs Lando Vannata -160
  • The line is moving in our favour, opening around -175.
  • I honestly felt Lando was the better fighter in the first fight and the perfect storm kept Green in the fight- I picked Green.
  • Lando lost a point, went for the finish and wore himself out in round 2, still put together a strong round 3.
  • Vannata is the better wrestler/grappler, quicker, and the more purposeful striker.
  • I feel like Lando finishes what he started.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Lando dropped Green in the first fight and has stopping power.
  • He also scored multiple takedowns and put together some pretty solid volume in their first fight.
  • He scored 85 points in that fight with a draw.
  • Add him.

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Ed Herman +140 vs Gerald Meerschaert -170
  • GM3 seems like the fancier play here, but as I was breaking this fight down I kept coming back to Herman.
  • Herman has shown he can put decent volume on the board and he is far more durable than most give him credit for.
  • GM3 doesn’t throw that much volume and can be worn down.
  • GM3 only has a couple of weeks to prep and moving up could make him sluggish with the extra weight.
  • I like Herman to turn this into a grind, especially in the clinch, and outwork GM3 as he slows.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Herman is an under the radar pick.
  • GM3 has been finished before and moving up to LHW probably won’t help that.
  • Herman has scored 71, 106, and 104 in his last 3 wins.
  • Unique points with volume and stoppage potential.
  • Add him.

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Trevin Giles +175 vs Kevin Holland -210
  • The line has held strong which is fine with me, I think Holland at -210 is very playable.
  • Giles was barely able to get by a former LW, turned WW fight at MW on extremely short notice.
  • Holland has the striking skills to hang on the feet and the grappling skills to exploit Giles’ question defensive skills.
  • Holland turned a corner in his last fight. That continues here.
  • Gold play for Holland

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • I wanted to use Holland, but not over Luque or Shahbazyan and I can’t afford him after that.
  • Pass.

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Jonathan Martinez -250 vs Frankie Saenz +200
  • Martinez should win this fight against an aging opponent that needs to wrestle, doesn’t wrestle enough, and isn’t that durable anymore.
  • Martinez missed the weight which usually actually favours a fighter. It should help him in the clinch and defending TDs.
  • If Saenz can get his wrestling going, he could grind out a win, but I can’t see him doing it for a full 15 minutes without getting hurt.
  • Silver play for Martinez.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Martinez has power and a diverse striking attack.
  • Saenz can be hurt and he can be finished.
  • At $8600, Martinez fits into our budget which makes him ideal.
  • Add him.

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Johnny Munoz +135 vs Nate Maness -155
  • This is a difficult call with dual debuts, extreme short notice, a partial weight cut, and both guys now moving up to 145.
  • I feel like Munoz’s aggressive grappling centric style is more suited at this level than a counter-based power striker like Maness.
  • Munoz is a pretty solid prospect and if the line is this close with 24-hours to prepare, the books must feel he has a legit shot to pull it out.
  • Bronze Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Munoz is a capable submission fighter from top and bottom position and is pretty solid on the feet.
  • He has a good finishing record.
  • More importantly he is cheap at $7200 and makes everything else fall into place.
  • Add him.

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Jamall Emmers -315 vs Vincent Cachero +275
  • I think Emmers wins it, but the line is far from playable.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Cody Durden +250 vs Chris Gutierrez -334
  • Gutierrez should win, but the line is pretty wide and Durden can wrestle.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • A finish is a possibility, but not enough to spend the $9200.

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Confidence List

1. Edmen Shahbazyan -334

2. Kevin Holland -210

3. Vicente Luque -200

4. Lando Vannata -160

5. Jonathan Martinez -250

====================

6. Joanne Calderwood -150

7. Chris Gutierrez -334

8. Jamall Emmers -315

9. Johnny Munoz +135

10. Ed Herman +140

11.

12.

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Ed Herman +140

2. Lando Vannata -160

3. Johnny Munoz +135

4. Joanne Calderwood -150

5. Kevin Holland -210

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Jamall Emmers/Vincent Cachero

Emmers has power but I feel like he can be a little passive between attacks. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a finish but a decision is equally as possible. Pass.

2. Chris Gutierrez to Win by TKO/KO +300

I was impressed with the leg kicks of Gutierrez and they could be a big factor here too. Gutierrez is really finding his stride and I think a bet on a finish at this price is certainly worth a look.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
2381535%

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FPO Candidate

1. Jonathan Martinez/Frankie Saenz

Let’s leave this one alone. Martinez should be able to get the finish, but he could also sit and pick Saenz apart at range between failed TDAs I’m leaning towards Martinez by knockout, but not enough to make it official.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
1911858%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
104640%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Joanne Calderwood -150 vs Jennifer Maia +125

2. Bobby Green +130 vs Lando Vannata -160

3. Johnny Munoz +135 vs Nate Maness -155

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
102525051%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
102465645%