When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Kelvin Gastelum
to Win
-110
+ Arman Tsarukyan
to Win
-200
ODDS:
+186
BET:
10u
RETURN:
28.64u
BET #2
+ Rafael Fiziev
to Win
+137
+ Amir Albazi
to Win
-163
ODDS:
+282
BET:
7u
RETURN:
26.77u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Joseph Benavidez
to Win
+180
ODDS:
+180
BET:
6u
RETURN:
16.8u
BET #2
+ Askar Askarov
to Win
+170
ODDS:
+170
BET:
5u
RETURN:
13.5u
BET #3
+ Grant Dawson
to Win
-220
+ Montel Jackson
to Win
-200
ODDS:
+118
BET:
5u
RETURN:
10.91u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Ariane Lipski
to Win
-125
ODDS:
-125
BET:
3u
RETURN:
5.4u
BET #2
+ Roman Dolidze
to Win
-170
+ Sergey Spivac
to Win
-170
ODDS:
+152
BET:
4u
RETURN:
10.09u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Kelvin Gastelum
to Win
-110
+ Joseph Benavidez
to Win
+180
ODDS:
+435
BET:
4u
RETURN:
21.38u
BET #2
+ Amir Albazi
to Win Inside the Distance
+175
+ Montel Jackson
to Win by Decision
-105
ODDS:
+437
BET:
3u
RETURN:
16.11u
BET #3
+ Sergey Spivac
to Win Inside the Distance
+162
+ Roman Dolidze
to Win by TKO/KO
+160
ODDS:
+581
BET:
3u
RETURN:
20.44u
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Kelvin Gastelum
to Win
-110
+ Arman Tsarukyan
to Win
-200
+ Amir Albazi
to Win
-163
ODDS:
+362
BET:
10u
RETURN:
46.2u
BET #2
+ Rafael Fiziev
to Win
+137
+ Amir Albazi
to Win
-163
+ Arman Tsarukyan
to Win
-200
ODDS:
+474
BET:
8u
RETURN:
45.89u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Grant Dawson
to Win
-220
+ Montel Jackson
to Win
-200
+ Joseph Benavidez
to Win
+180
ODDS:
+511
BET:
6u
RETURN:
36.65u
BET #2
+ Grant Dawson
to Win
-220
+ Montel Jackson
to Win
-200
+ Askar Askarov
to Win
+170
ODDS:
+511
BET:
6u
RETURN:
36.65u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Roman Dolidze
to Win
-170
+ Sergey Spivac
to Win
-170
+ Ariane Lipski
to Win
-125
ODDS:
+354
BET:
5u
RETURN:
22.7u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Kelvin Gastelum
to Win
-110
+ Joseph Benavidez
to Win
+180
+ Rafael Fiziev
to Win
+137
ODDS:
+1167
BET:
5u
RETURN:
63.34u
BET #2
+ Amir Albazi
to Win Inside the Distance
+175
+ Montel Jackson
to Win by Decision
-105
+ Kelvin Gastelum
to Win
-110
ODDS:
+925
BET:
5u
RETURN:
51.25u
BET #3
+ Sergey Spivac
to Win Inside the Distance
+162
+ Roman Dolidze
to Win by TKO/KO
+160
+ Askar Askarov
to Win
+170
ODDS:
+1739
BET:
4u
RETURN:
73.57u
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
+ Joseph Benavidez
$7200
+ Kelvin Gastelum
$8200
+ Rafael Fiziev
$7700
+ Amir Albazi
$8600
+ Sergey Spivac
$8400
+ Roman Dolidze
$8900
Spares
+
+
+
+
Betting Breakdowns
Deiveson Figueiredo -220 vs Joseph Benavidez +180
Rematches are tough, especially when they ended the way the first won did.
Benavidez most likely wins the fight over 5 rounds if that fight plays out, but there was so much potential for him to get hurt/ KOed.
I don’t think the odds were reflective of how the fight was going, but the fight outcome is clearly influencing the betting line.
Joe opened around +130 and has been on the move since.
Silver play on Joe to become the new champion.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Joe is affordable and will have 5 rounds to score points.
He is also capable of scoring a finish if Figueiredo starts to fade in the latter stages of the fight.
The money saved here can be spent elsewhere and I expect a lot of people will be backing Figueiredo.
Add him.
icon-circleicon-circle
Kelvin Gastelum -110 vs Jack Hermansson -110
This is my #1 play of the night.
Hermansson is great when he can land takedowns, but Kelvin is hard to take down and harder to keep down.
Kelvin has power and the ability to deliver it.
He will also be looking for a rebound performance after a couple of tough losses.
The line has moved in our favour from roughly -150.
Gold Play for Kelvin.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Kelvin throws with solid volume and can finish.
He is also quite affordable at $8200.
Hermansson has been finished in all but one of his career defeats.
Add him.
icon-circleicon-circle
Marc Diakiese -163 vs Rafael Fiziev +137
Fiziev has lost some of his value opening around +195, but I still like the return we are getting here.
Diakiese has looked good in his last 2 fights, but against underperforming opponents.
Fiziev is aggressive and throws with power and solid technique- something that Diakiese has had issues with.
This is a solid spot to back the dog.
Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Fiziev definitely has finishing skills and he works at a pretty aggressive pace.
He should be able to produce some decent points and will most likely be overlooked by many.
Add him.
icon-circleicon-circle
Luana Carolina +100 vs Ariane Lipski -125
This will be a close fight between 2 capable, but flawed fighters.
There has been very little movement in the line which make sense and opinions appear to be split.
Lipski needs to be on her game to win this, but I think that will be the case.
Bronze play for Ariane.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play
icon-circleicon-circle
Askar Askarov +170 vs Alexandre Pantoja -200
Pantoja was linked to the title fight, but I don’t think that will be much of a distraction now.
Askarov has serviceable boxing, a little more technical than Pantoja which will be key in the exchanges.
I have this as a close fight and with Pantoja’s pension for giving up takedowns a deciding factor.
Silva play for Double-A.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
icon-circleicon-circle
Roman Dolidze -170 vs Khadis Ibragimov +140
I think Ibragimov is almost an auto-fade at this point.
His first 2 fights were rough performances, to say the least.
That being said, that appears to be a little bit of money coming in on the Russian to help move the line.
Dolidze is a little rough but has skills and physical gifts, that is enough for me.
Bronze play on Roman.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
With the power of Roman and the questionable cardio and fight IQ of Khadis, anything is possible.
I think we get a finish here.
Add him.
icon-circleicon-circle
Grant Dawson -220 vs Nad Narimani +180
This is at catchweight which should help Dawson who struggled last time.
Nad might have the edge in striking, but Dawson’s pressure will be his key to success and should overwhelm him here.
Dawson gets hit a little too much for my liking and that will catch up to him, I am just not sure that happens here.
We are getting a little more bang for our buck than the open.
It is a Silver Play for Dawson.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Dawson is a little too expensive for my liking.
His pace and potential for a finish is there, but I will pass.
icon-circleicon-circle
Joel Alvarez +275 vs Joe Duffy -350
Duffy hasn’t looked good of late and is not worth the price here.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
icon-circleicon-circle
Montel Jackson -200 vs Brett Johns +170
Jackson has looked really good of late, but Johns is a tough test.
I really liked this bet at the open around -160 on Montel, but the money is moving against us.
Jackson would have been a Gold play at -160.
Silver play for MJ.
Prop Bet:
Montel Jackson to Win by Decision -105
Jackson is dangerous, but Johns is super tough and went the distance with Munhoz and Sterling.
I think he can survive here, with Jackson landing better strikes and a couple of takedowns to ear it on the cards.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
icon-circleicon-circle
Amir Albazi -163 vs Malcolm Gordon +137
Gordon trains very close to where I live so it was hard for me to pick against him.
He is a good grappler, but so is Albazi.
What decided this fight was the way Gordon reacts to getting hit and that he has been knocked out 3 times.
Albazi should be able to exploit this on route to a win.
He is also fighting at home which is huge.
Gold Play for Albazi.
Prop Bet:
Amir Albazi to Win Inside the Distance +175
As mentioned above, Gordon’s durability is a major question mark.
Amir has solid submission skills, but his striking is pretty serviceable where this fight most likely gets finished.
DK Lineup:
As mentioned above, there is a legit chance that this fight doesn’t go the distance based on Gordon’s lack of durability.
Add him.
icon-circleicon-circle
Davi Ramos +170 vs Arman Tsarukyan -200
Ramos struggled in his last fight with an opponent that offers a similar style to Tsarukyan.
Unless Ramos opens up and starts to push the pace or gets an advantageous grappling position we should expect something similar.
Tsarukyan has solid grappling defense, superior striking, and better cardio.
The line has improved a bit from its -230 open.
Gold play for Arman.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
icon-circleicon-circle
Carlos Felipe +140 vs Sergey Spivac -170
Spivac is not great, but I wasn’t impressed with Felipe.
Felipe has been out a long time which creates some uncertainty.
He is undersized and appears vulnerable to a grappling heavy attack.
Spivac should be able to exploit this.
Bronze Play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
Spivac should be able to take Felipe down and submit him.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
Both guys are pretty tough and their combined skill set will most likely take this fight to the scorecards. I would lean more towards Tsarukyan by Decision, but not strong enough to make it official.
2. Sergey Spivac to Win Inside the Distance +162
Felipe appeared vulnerable to grappling/ clinch attacks on the regional scene and is now faced with a much larger opponent. Spivac has shown he can beat the lower end guys and knows how to use his ground game to do so. This play keeps the GNP and submission options on board.
EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47
24
23
51%
2016 Picks
55
31
24
56%
2017 Picks
47
20
27
43%
2018 Picks
42
25
17
60%
2019 Picks
32
13
19
41%
2020 Picks
23
8
15
35%
icon-circleicon-circle
FPO Candidate
1. Roman Dolidze to Win by TKO/KO +160
Ibragimov is a capable, but an extremely flawed fighter. His poor decision making and equally as poor cardio will leave him open to Dolidze raw finishing power. Herman was able to hurt the Russian on multiple occasions, Roman should be able to do the same with even greater impact.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.