UFC FIGHT NIGHT 172: FIGUEIREDO VS BENAVIDEZ 2 | Bet Pack Review

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 172: FIGUEIREDO VS BENAVIDEZ 2 |  Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Kelvin Gastelum  to Win -110
+ Arman Tsarukyan  to Win -200
ODDS: +186
BET: 10u
RETURN: 28.64u

 

BET #2
+ Rafael Fiziev  to Win +137
+ Amir Albazi  to Win -163
ODDS: +282
BET: 7u
RETURN: 26.77u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Joseph Benavidez  to Win +180
ODDS: +180
BET: 6u
RETURN: 16.8u

 

BET #2
+ Askar Askarov  to Win +170
ODDS: +170
BET: 5u
RETURN: 13.5u

 

BET #3
+ Grant Dawson  to Win -220
+ Montel Jackson  to Win -200
ODDS: +118
BET: 5u
RETURN: 10.91u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Ariane Lipski  to Win -125
ODDS: -125
BET: 3u
RETURN: 5.4u

 

BET #2
+ Roman Dolidze  to Win -170
+ Sergey Spivac to Win -170
ODDS: +152
BET: 4u
RETURN: 10.09u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Kelvin Gastelum  to Win -110
+ Joseph Benavidez  to Win +180
ODDS: +435
BET: 4u
RETURN: 21.38u

 

BET #2
+ Amir Albazi   to Win Inside the Distance +175
+ Montel Jackson  to Win by Decision -105
ODDS: +437
BET: 3u
RETURN: 16.11u

 

BET #3
+ Sergey Spivac  to Win Inside the Distance +162
+ Roman Dolidze  to Win by TKO/KO +160
ODDS: +581
BET: 3u
RETURN: 20.44u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Kelvin Gastelum  to Win -110
+ Arman Tsarukyan  to Win -200
+ Amir Albazi  to Win -163
ODDS: +362
BET: 10u
RETURN: 46.2u

 

BET #2
+ Rafael Fiziev  to Win +137
+ Amir Albazi  to Win -163
+ Arman Tsarukyan  to Win -200
ODDS: +474
BET: 8u
RETURN: 45.89u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Grant Dawson  to Win -220
+ Montel Jackson  to Win -200
+ Joseph Benavidez  to Win +180
ODDS: +511
BET: 6u
RETURN: 36.65u

BET #2
+ Grant Dawson  to Win -220
+ Montel Jackson  to Win -200
+ Askar Askarov  to Win +170
ODDS: +511
BET: 6u
RETURN: 36.65u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Roman Dolidze  to Win -170
+ Sergey Spivac to Win -170
+ Ariane Lipski  to Win -125
ODDS: +354
BET: 5u
RETURN: 22.7u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Kelvin Gastelum  to Win -110
+ Joseph Benavidez  to Win +180
+ Rafael Fiziev  to Win +137
ODDS: +1167
BET: 5u
RETURN: 63.34u

BET #2
+ Amir Albazi   to Win Inside the Distance +175
+ Montel Jackson  to Win by Decision -105
+ Kelvin Gastelum  to Win -110
ODDS: +925
BET: 5u
RETURN: 51.25u

BET #3
+ Sergey Spivac  to Win Inside the Distance +162
+ Roman Dolidze  to Win by TKO/KO +160
+ Askar Askarov  to Win +170
ODDS: +1739
BET: 4u
RETURN: 73.57u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Joseph Benavidez $7200
+ Kelvin Gastelum $8200
+ Rafael Fiziev $7700
+ Amir Albazi $8600
+ Sergey Spivac $8400
+ Roman Dolidze $8900

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Deiveson Figueiredo -220 vs Joseph Benavidez +180

  • Rematches are tough, especially when they ended the way the first won did.
  • Benavidez most likely wins the fight over 5 rounds if that fight plays out, but there was so much potential for him to get hurt/ KOed.
  • I don’t think the odds were reflective of how the fight was going, but the fight outcome is clearly influencing the betting line.
  • Joe opened around +130 and has been on the move since.
  • Silver play on Joe to become the new champion.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Joe is affordable and will have 5 rounds to score points.
  • He is also capable of scoring a finish if Figueiredo starts to fade in the latter stages of the fight.
  • The money saved here can be spent elsewhere and I expect a lot of people will be backing Figueiredo.
  • Add him.

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Kelvin Gastelum -110 vs Jack Hermansson -110

  • This is my #1 play of the night.
  • Hermansson is great when he can land takedowns, but Kelvin is hard to take down and harder to keep down.
  • Kelvin has power and the ability to deliver it.
  • He will also be looking for a rebound performance after a couple of tough losses.
  • The line has moved in our favour from roughly -150.
  • Gold Play for Kelvin.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Kelvin throws with solid volume and can finish.
  • He is also quite affordable at $8200.
  • Hermansson has been finished in all but one of his career defeats.
  • Add him.

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Marc Diakiese -163 vs Rafael Fiziev +137

  • Fiziev has lost some of his value opening around +195, but I still like the return we are getting here.
  • Diakiese has looked good in his last 2 fights, but against underperforming opponents.
  • Fiziev is aggressive and throws with power and solid technique- something that Diakiese has had issues with.
  • This is a solid spot to back the dog.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Fiziev definitely has finishing skills and he works at a pretty aggressive pace.
  • He should be able to produce some decent points and will most likely be overlooked by many.
  • Add him.

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Luana Carolina +100 vs Ariane Lipski -125

  • This will be a close fight between 2 capable, but flawed fighters.
  • There has been very little movement in the line which make sense and opinions appear to be split.
  • Lipski needs to be on her game to win this, but I think that will be the case.
  • Bronze play for Ariane.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play

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Askar Askarov +170 vs Alexandre Pantoja -200

  • Pantoja was linked to the title fight, but I don’t think that will be much of a distraction now.
  • Askarov has serviceable boxing, a little more technical than Pantoja which will be key in the exchanges.
  • I have this as a close fight and with Pantoja’s pension for giving up takedowns a deciding factor.
  • Silva play for Double-A.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Roman Dolidze -170 vs Khadis Ibragimov +140

  • I think Ibragimov is almost an auto-fade at this point.
  • His first 2 fights were rough performances, to say the least.
  • That being said, that appears to be a little bit of money coming in on the Russian to help move the line.
  • Dolidze is a little rough but has skills and physical gifts, that is enough for me.
  • Bronze play on Roman.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • With the power of Roman and the questionable cardio and fight IQ of Khadis, anything is possible.
  • I think we get a finish here.
  • Add him.

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Grant Dawson -220 vs Nad Narimani +180

  • This is at catchweight which should help Dawson who struggled last time.
  • Nad might have the edge in striking, but Dawson’s pressure will be his key to success and should overwhelm him here.
  • Dawson gets hit a little too much for my liking and that will catch up to him, I am just not sure that happens here.
  • We are getting a little more bang for our buck than the open.
  • It is a Silver Play for Dawson.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Dawson is a little too expensive for my liking.
  • His pace and potential for a finish is there, but I will pass.

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Joel Alvarez +275 vs Joe Duffy -350

  • Duffy hasn’t looked good of late and is not worth the price here.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Montel Jackson -200 vs Brett Johns +170

  • Jackson has looked really good of late, but Johns is a tough test.
  • I really liked this bet at the open around -160 on Montel, but the money is moving against us.
  • Jackson would have been a Gold play at -160.
  • Silver play for MJ.

Prop Bet:

  • Montel Jackson to Win by Decision -105
  • Jackson is dangerous, but Johns is super tough and went the distance with Munhoz and Sterling.
  • I think he can survive here, with Jackson landing better strikes and a couple of takedowns to ear it on the cards.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Amir Albazi -163 vs Malcolm Gordon +137

  • Gordon trains very close to where I live so it was hard for me to pick against him.
  • He is a good grappler, but so is Albazi.
  • What decided this fight was the way Gordon reacts to getting hit and that he has been knocked out 3 times.
  • Albazi should be able to exploit this on route to a win.
  • He is also fighting at home which is huge.
  • Gold Play for Albazi.

Prop Bet:

  • Amir Albazi to Win Inside the Distance +175
  • As mentioned above, Gordon’s durability is a major question mark.
  • Amir has solid submission skills, but his striking is pretty serviceable where this fight most likely gets finished.

DK Lineup:

  • As mentioned above, there is a legit chance that this fight doesn’t go the distance based on Gordon’s lack of durability.
  • Add him.

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Davi Ramos +170 vs Arman Tsarukyan -200

  • Ramos struggled in his last fight with an opponent that offers a similar style to Tsarukyan.
  • Unless Ramos opens up and starts to push the pace or gets an advantageous grappling position we should expect something similar.
  • Tsarukyan has solid grappling defense, superior striking, and better cardio.
  • The line has improved a bit from its -230 open.
  • Gold play for Arman.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Carlos Felipe +140 vs Sergey Spivac -170

  • Spivac is not great, but I wasn’t impressed with Felipe.
  • Felipe has been out a long time which creates some uncertainty.
  • He is undersized and appears vulnerable to a grappling heavy attack.
  • Spivac should be able to exploit this.
  • Bronze Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Spivac should be able to take Felipe down and submit him.
  • He is also unexpectedly affordable at $8400.
  • Add him.

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Confidence List

1. Arman Tsarukyan -200

2. Kelvin Gastelum -110

3. Amir Albazi -163

4. Rafael Fiziev +137

5. Grant Dawson -220

====================

6. Montel Jackson -200

7. Joseph Benavidez +180

8. Joe Duffy -350

9. Sergey Spivac -170

10. Askar Askarov +170

11. Roman Dolidze -170

12. Ariane Lipski -125

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Kelvin Gastelum -110

2. Rafael Fiziev +137

3. Joseph Benavidez +180

4. Askar Askarov +170

5. Sergey Spivac -170

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Davi Ramos/Arman Tsarukyan

Both guys are pretty tough and their combined skill set will most likely take this fight to the scorecards. I would lean more towards Tsarukyan by Decision, but not strong enough to make it official.

2. Sergey Spivac to Win Inside the Distance +162

Felipe appeared vulnerable to grappling/ clinch attacks on the regional scene and is now faced with a much larger opponent. Spivac has shown he can beat the lower end guys and knows how to use his ground game to do so. This play keeps the GNP and submission options on board.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
21
6 of 21 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
2281436%

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FPO Candidate

1. Roman Dolidze to Win by TKO/KO +160

Ibragimov is a capable, but an extremely flawed fighter. His poor decision making and equally as poor cardio will leave him open to Dolidze raw finishing power. Herman was able to hurt the Russian on multiple occasions, Roman should be able to do the same with even greater impact.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
1811761%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
104640%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Kelvin Gastelum -110 vs Jack Hermansson -110

2. Marc Diakiese -163 vs Rafael Fiziev +137

3. Luana Carolina +100 vs Ariane Lipski -125

4. Amir Albazi -163 vs Malcolm Gordon +137

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
99514852%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
99465346%