When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Jessica Eye
to Win
-110
+ Andre Fili
to Win
-225
ODDS:
+176
BET:
10u
RETURN:
27.58u
BET #2
+ Anthony Ivy
to Win
-188
+ Andre Fili
to Win
-225
ODDS:
+121
BET:
6u
RETURN:
13.28u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Mark De La Rosa
to Win
+140
ODDS:
+140
BET:
5u
RETURN:
12u
BET #2
+ Marvin Vettori
to Win
-220
+ Kevin Aguilar
to Win
-188
ODDS:
+169
BET:
6u
RETURN:
16.12u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Gutstavo Lopez
to Win
+450
ODDS:
+450
BET:
3u
RETURN:
16.5u
BET #2
+ Zarrukh Adashev
to Win
+100
ODDS:
+100
BET:
4u
RETURN:
8u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Anthony Ivy
to Win by TKO/KO/DQ
+150
ODDS:
+150
BET:
3u
RETURN:
7.5u
BET #2
+ Mariya Agapova
to Win Inside the Distance
+160
+ Julia Avila
to Win Inside the Distance
-150
ODDS:
+333
BET:
3u
RETURN:
13u
BET #3
+ Jessica Eye
to Win
-110
+ Marvin Vettori
to Win
-220
+ Mark De La Rosa
to Win
+140
ODDS:
+566
BET:
4u
RETURN:
26.66u
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Jessica Eye
to Win
-110
+ Andre Fili
to Win
-225
+ Anthony Ivy
to Win
-188
ODDS:
+322
BET:
9u
RETURN:
32.02u
Silver Plays
BET #2
+ Marvin Vettori
to Win
-220
+ Kevin Aguilar
to Win
-188
+ Mark De La Rosa
to Win
+140
ODDS:
+425
BET:
6u
RETURN:
31.47u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Gutstavo Lopez
to Win
+450
+ Zarrukh Adashev
to Win
+100
ODDS:
+1000
BET:
4u
RETURN:
44u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Mariya Agapova
to Win Inside the Distance
+160
+ Julia Avila
to Win Inside the Distance
-150
+ Anthony Ivy
to Win by TKO/KO/DQ
+150
ODDS:
+983
BET:
4u
RETURN:
43.33u
BET #2
+ Zarrukh Adashev
to Win
+100
+ Kevin Aguilar
to Win
-188
+ Andre Fili
to Win
-225
ODDS:
+343
BET:
5u
RETURN:
22.13u
BET #3
+ Jessica Eye
to Win
-110
+ Marvin Vettori
to Win
-220
+ Mark De La Rosa
to Win
+140
ODDS:
+566
BET:
6u
RETURN:
39.99u
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
+ Gustavo Lopez
$6800
+ Mariya Agapova
$8700
+ Julia Avila
$9300
+ Mark De La Rosa
$7700
+ Marvin Vettori
$8800
+ Andre Fili
$8600
Spares
+
+
+
+
Betting Breakdowns
Jessica Eye -110 vs Cynthia Calvillo -110
Eye was a slight dog at the open which is not surprising considering she is a former challenger and Calvillo is moving up.
The line is even now with public money on CC- people are following that narrative that grapplers beat Eye.
54% picking of Calvillo. (Tapology)
That hasn’t been the case at FLW and we have seen Calvillo struggle to takedown bigger girls (Casey).
The extra weight won’t help Calvillo in a longer fight, especially once Eye starts landing low kicks and busting her up.
Eye gets the nod in a fun fight.
Eye Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Karl Roberson +180 vs Marvin Vettori -220
This fight has some added emotion/bad blood that wasn’t there the first time it was booked.
*Update- Roberson missed weight by over 4-pounds. Brutal.
the line on Vetorri has stayed relatively close, but the -200 was a nicer bet overall.
Roberson has the skills to make this one interesting, but his avenues to victory are limited.
There has to be some concern that Vettori cut weight for their first fight and it appears that Roberson probably short of draining himself for the final 5 pounds.
Silver play for Vettori.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
With Minner out, I had to revamp my DK team.
Vettori gets the call for a couple of reasons.
#1. I don’t see a lot of other solid options out there which is a big factor.
#2. Roberson can be finished by submission which is an area Vettori has had success with.
With Roberson missing weight Vettori will be fired up and could take advantage of him fading down the stretch.
Add him.
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Gutstavo Lopez +450 vs Merab Dvalishvili -700
48-hours notice and 93% support on Tapology.
Lopez is a huge dog. In fact, if he wins he would be by 2nd biggest upset pick of all time at +450.
Dvalishvili has good takedowns, but his top control is not great and Lopez can wrestle.
Lopez is also a more linear striker and has legit power. Merab’s chin is there to be hit.
The window is limited, but this dog worth the bark.
Bronze play on Lopez
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
If Lopez wins he wins by knockout and he is dirt cheap.
He will also be owned by very few players which makes this an opportunity to get unique points.
Add him.
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Andre Fili -225 vs Charles Jourdain +187
Jourdain lost his debut start to finish and lost the majority of his fight until getting the finish.
His avenue to victory against Fili is pretty much the same- flash knockdowns or a knockout.
Jourdain’s TDD is questionable and he reckless on the feet- all areas that Fili can exploit.
The -175 was juicy, but even here we are getting a better return then I feel we should.
Gold play for Fili
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Andre gets the call for my lineup.
He offers a diverse offense with strikes and takedowns.
He can score a submission or knockout win against an opponent that is defensively vulnerable.
Solid option.
Add him.
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Jordan Espinosa -170 vs Mark De La Rosa +140
DLR has lost 3 in a row, Espinosa has dropped B2B fights, but 3 straight seems to be the magic number for a lot of fighters.
Espinosa moves a lot and is very athletic, but he slows down and doesn’t land a tonne of offense.
DLR likes to counter and is more linear with his striking.
He is also the more accomplished grappler versus a guy that has a lot of early-career sub wins and more recent sub losses.
Solid dog play.
Silver play for DLR.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
DLR is a BJJ Black Belt and Espinosa has been submitted in 2 straight fights.
With the limited options, we can snatch a dog that can finish against a fav that can be finished.
Add him.
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Mariya Agapova -300 vs Hannah Cifers +240
The line is trending in the wrong direction and started at point that was almost untouchable.
A young debuting fighter at -300 (or more) is simply not worth a SU bet.
Even with how impressive Agapova has been and the short notice and weight jump for Cifers.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
Mariya Agapova to Win Inside the Distance +160
Cifers is going struggle with the reach and movement of Mariya.
This will require her to take some chances and expose herself.
She is also vulnerable in grappling exchanges.
Agapova has shown she can finish with strikes or via submission.
A nice betting option with the card already down to 10 fights.
DK Lineup:
Based on the above breakdown, we need to add Agapova.
There is some risk that she underperforms in the big show, but she could also be a big point producer.
Add her.
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Kevin Aguilar -188 vs Charles Rosa +162
Aguilar needs a win here with back to back losses, his strong UFC start is fading fast.
Rosa is a good grappler, but the majority of his success has come from a defensive position- not ideal.
He can also strike, but his kick heavy barrage isn’t as effective as Aguilar’s boxing.
65% have picked KA and the line is moving against us but is far from unplayable.
Silver play for the Angel of Death.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Rosa is a tough out, even if Aguilar throws bombs this is a pass for me.
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Julia Avila -550 vs Gina Mazany +400
A SU bet on Avila makes no sense here.
Longer layoff and only her 2nd fight in the UFC.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
Julia Avila to Win Inside the Distance -150
Avila is aggressive and can finish almost anywhere.
If Mazany can’t take her down she will struggle to hold up against the power punching of Julia.
Similar to Agapova, this gives us a decent return on a heavily lined fight.
DK Lineup:
Similar to Agapova, we are including Avila in our lineup.
WMMA fighters often get overlooked when it comes to finishing.
If she finishes, that produces some solid points for us.
Add her.
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Zarrukh Adashev +100 vs Tyson Nam -125
Picking a slight dog debuting on short notice is always a risk.
I have seen nothing from Nam that tells me short of a knockout, he can win at this level.
Adashev is a capable striker with a solid combat sports background.
He should be able to outwork the counter heavy Nam for the duration.
Bronze play for Zarrukh.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Christian Aguilera +162 vs Anthony Ivy -188
Ivy was been primed to fight since he was tabbed to face GM3 on short notice.
He is a long WW with a decently diverse skill set.
Aguilera (not Christina) his a heavy hitter that will need to overcome some distance issues.
He also has had mixed results when unable to get the early finish.
Ivy survives his early attack and takes the fighter over when he fades.
91% picking Ivy and the line has improved slightly from the open.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
This should be a fun fight, but I don’t feel like I have a strong lean either way.
2. Anthony Ivy to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +150
With 79% of predictors taking Ivy to win by TKO/KO we are getting solid return based on the plus money. Further, he has 5 wins by knockout and Aguilera has been (T)KO in 4 of his 6 defeats. I like the return under those scenarios.
EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47
24
23
51%
2016 Picks
55
31
24
56%
2017 Picks
47
20
27
43%
2018 Picks
42
25
17
60%
2019 Picks
32
13
19
41%
2020 Picks
23
8
15
35%
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FPO Candidate
1. No Play- the fight in this position has changed multiple times.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.