UFC Fight Night: Eye vs Calvillo | Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Night: Eye vs Calvillo | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Jessica Eye to Win  -110
+ Andre Fili  to Win -225
ODDS: +176
BET: 10u
RETURN: 27.58u

 

BET #2
+ Anthony Ivy  to Win -188
+ Andre Fili  to Win -225
ODDS: +121
BET: 6u
RETURN: 13.28u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Mark De La Rosa  to Win +140
ODDS: +140
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12u

 

BET #2
+ Marvin Vettori  to Win -220
+ Kevin Aguilar  to Win -188
ODDS: +169
BET: 6u
RETURN: 16.12u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Gutstavo Lopez  to Win +450
ODDS: +450
BET: 3u
RETURN: 16.5u

 

BET #2
+ Zarrukh Adashev  to Win +100
ODDS: +100
BET: 4u
RETURN: 8u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Anthony Ivy  to Win by TKO/KO/DQ  +150
ODDS: +150
BET: 3u
RETURN: 7.5u

 

BET #2
+ Mariya Agapova   to Win Inside the Distance +160
+ Julia Avila  to Win Inside the Distance  -150
ODDS: +333
BET: 3u
RETURN: 13u

BET #3
+ Jessica Eye to Win  -110
+ Marvin Vettori  to Win -220
+ Mark De La Rosa  to Win +140
ODDS: +566
BET: 4u
RETURN: 26.66u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Jessica Eye to Win  -110
+ Andre Fili  to Win -225
+ Anthony Ivy  to Win -188
ODDS: +322
BET: 9u
RETURN: 32.02u

Silver Plays

BET #2
+ Marvin Vettori  to Win -220
+ Kevin Aguilar  to Win -188
+ Mark De La Rosa  to Win +140
ODDS: +425
BET: 6u
RETURN: 31.47u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Gutstavo Lopez  to Win +450
+ Zarrukh Adashev  to Win +100
ODDS: +1000
BET: 4u
RETURN: 44u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Mariya Agapova   to Win Inside the Distance +160
+ Julia Avila  to Win Inside the Distance -150
+ Anthony Ivy  to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +150
ODDS: +983
BET: 4u
RETURN: 43.33u

 

BET #2
+ Zarrukh Adashev  to Win +100
+ Kevin Aguilar  to Win -188
+ Andre Fili  to Win -225
ODDS: +343
BET: 5u
RETURN: 22.13u

BET #3
+ Jessica Eye to Win  -110
+ Marvin Vettori  to Win -220
+ Mark De La Rosa  to Win +140
ODDS: +566
BET: 6u
RETURN: 39.99u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Gustavo Lopez $6800
+ Mariya Agapova $8700
+ Julia Avila $9300
+ Mark De La Rosa $7700
+ Marvin Vettori $8800
+ Andre Fili $8600

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Jessica Eye -110 vs Cynthia Calvillo -110

  • Eye was a slight dog at the open which is not surprising considering she is a former challenger and Calvillo is moving up.
  • The line is even now with public money on CC- people are following that narrative that grapplers beat Eye.
  • 54% picking of Calvillo. (Tapology)
  • That hasn’t been the case at FLW and we have seen Calvillo struggle to takedown bigger girls (Casey).
  • The extra weight won’t help Calvillo in a longer fight, especially once Eye starts landing low kicks and busting her up.
  • Eye gets the nod in a fun fight.
  • Eye Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Karl Roberson +180 vs Marvin Vettori -220

  • This fight has some added emotion/bad blood that wasn’t there the first time it was booked.
  • *Update- Roberson missed weight by over 4-pounds. Brutal.
  • the line on Vetorri has stayed relatively close, but the -200 was a nicer bet overall.
  • Roberson has the skills to make this one interesting, but his avenues to victory are limited.
  •  There has to be some concern that Vettori cut weight for their first fight and it appears that Roberson probably short of draining himself for the final 5 pounds.
  • Silver play for Vettori.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • With Minner out, I had to revamp my DK team.
  • Vettori gets the call for a couple of reasons.
  • #1. I don’t see a lot of other solid options out there which is a big factor.
  • #2. Roberson can be finished by submission which is an area Vettori has had success with.
  • With Roberson missing weight Vettori will be fired up and could take advantage of him fading down the stretch.
  • Add him.

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Gutstavo Lopez +450 vs Merab Dvalishvili -700

  • 48-hours notice and 93% support on Tapology.
  • Lopez is a huge dog. In fact, if he wins he would be by 2nd biggest upset pick of all time at +450.
  • Dvalishvili has good takedowns, but his top control is not great and Lopez can wrestle.
  • Lopez is also a more linear striker and has legit power. Merab’s chin is there to be hit.
  • The window is limited, but this dog worth the bark.
  • Bronze play on Lopez

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • If Lopez wins he wins by knockout and he is dirt cheap.
  • He will also be owned by very few players which makes this an opportunity to get unique points.
  • Add him.

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Andre Fili -225 vs Charles Jourdain +187

  • Jourdain lost his debut start to finish and lost the majority of his fight until getting the finish.
  • His avenue to victory against Fili is pretty much the same- flash knockdowns or a knockout.
  • Jourdain’s TDD is questionable and he reckless on the feet- all areas that Fili can exploit.
  • The -175 was juicy, but even here we are getting a better return then I feel we should.
  • Gold play for Fili

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Andre gets the call for my lineup.
  • He offers a diverse offense with strikes and takedowns.
  • He can score a submission or knockout win against an opponent that is defensively vulnerable.
  • Solid option.
  • Add him.

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Jordan Espinosa -170 vs Mark De La Rosa +140

  • DLR has lost 3 in a row, Espinosa has dropped B2B fights, but 3 straight seems to be the magic number for a lot of fighters.
  • Espinosa moves a lot and is very athletic, but he slows down and doesn’t land a tonne of offense.
  • DLR likes to counter and is more linear with his striking.
  • He is also the more accomplished grappler versus a guy that has a lot of early-career sub wins and more recent sub losses.
  • Solid dog play.
  • Silver play for DLR.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • DLR is a BJJ Black Belt and Espinosa has been submitted in 2 straight fights.
  • With the limited options, we can snatch a dog that can finish against a fav that can be finished.
  • Add him.

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Mariya Agapova -300 vs Hannah Cifers +240

  • The line is trending in the wrong direction and started at point that was almost untouchable.
  • A young debuting fighter at -300 (or more) is simply not worth a SU bet.
  • Even with how impressive Agapova has been and the short notice and weight jump for Cifers.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Mariya Agapova to Win Inside the Distance +160
  • Cifers is going struggle with the reach and movement of Mariya.
  • This will require her to take some chances and expose herself.
  • She is also vulnerable in grappling exchanges.
  • Agapova has shown she can finish with strikes or via submission.
  • A nice betting option with the card already down to 10 fights.

DK Lineup:

  • Based on the above breakdown, we need to add Agapova.
  • There is some risk that she underperforms in the big show, but she could also be a big point producer.
  • Add her.

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Kevin Aguilar -188 vs Charles Rosa +162

  • Aguilar needs a win here with back to back losses, his strong UFC start is fading fast.
  • Rosa is a good grappler, but the majority of his success has come from a defensive position- not ideal.
  • He can also strike, but his kick heavy barrage isn’t as effective as Aguilar’s boxing.
  • 65% have picked KA and the line is moving against us but is far from unplayable.
  • Silver play for the Angel of Death.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Rosa is a tough out, even if Aguilar throws bombs this is a pass for me.

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Julia Avila -550 vs Gina Mazany +400

  • A SU bet on Avila makes no sense here.
  • Longer layoff and only her 2nd fight in the UFC.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Julia Avila to Win Inside the Distance -150
  • Avila is aggressive and can finish almost anywhere.
  • If Mazany can’t take her down she will struggle to hold up against the power punching of Julia.
  • Similar to Agapova, this gives us a decent return on a heavily lined fight.

DK Lineup:

  • Similar to Agapova, we are including Avila in our lineup.
  • WMMA fighters often get overlooked when it comes to finishing.
  • If she finishes, that produces some solid points for us.
  • Add her.

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Zarrukh Adashev +100 vs Tyson Nam -125

  • Picking a slight dog debuting on short notice is always a risk.
  • I have seen nothing from Nam that tells me short of a knockout, he can win at this level.
  • Adashev is a capable striker with a solid combat sports background.
  • He should be able to outwork the counter heavy Nam for the duration.
  • Bronze play for Zarrukh.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Christian Aguilera +162 vs Anthony Ivy -188

  • Ivy was been primed to fight since he was tabbed to face GM3 on short notice.
  • He is a long WW with a decently diverse skill set.
  • Aguilera (not Christina) his a heavy hitter that will need to overcome some distance issues.
  • He also has had mixed results when unable to get the early finish.
  • Ivy survives his early attack and takes the fighter over when he fades.
  • 91% picking Ivy and the line has improved slightly from the open.
  • It is a risk, but Gold Play for Ivey.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Confidence List

1. Julia Avila -550

2. Andre Fili -225

3. Jessica Eye -110

4. Mariya Agapova -300

5. Anthony Ivy -188

====================

6. Marvin Vettori -220

7. Kevin Aguilar -188

8. Mark De La Rosa +140

9. Zarrukh Adashev +100

10. Gutstavo Lopez +450

11.

12.

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Jessica Eye -110

2. Mark De La Rosa +140

3. Zarrukh Adashev +100

4. Gutstavo Lopez +450

5. Andre Fili -225

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Zarrukh Adashev/Tyson Nam

This should be a fun fight, but I don’t feel like I have a strong lean either way.

2. Anthony Ivy to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +150

With 79% of predictors taking Ivy to win by TKO/KO we are getting solid return based on the plus money. Further, he has 5 wins by knockout and Aguilera has been (T)KO in 4 of his 6 defeats. I like the return under those scenarios.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
11
16
17
4 of 18 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
1861233%

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FPO Candidate

1. No Play- the fight in this position has changed multiple times.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
1511473%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
93633%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Jessica Eye -110 vs Cynthia Calvillo -110

2. Zarrukh Adashev +100 vs Tyson Nam -125

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
85424349%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
85394646%