Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack
Parlays & Single Bets
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Magomed Ankalaev |
to Win |
-200 |
 |
| + Joseph Benavidez |
to Win |
-137 |
 |
| + Megan Anderson |
to Win |
-224 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+275 |
|
|
BET: |
9u |
|
|
RETURN: |
33.78u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Sean Brady |
to Win |
+108 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+108 |
|
|
BET: |
7u |
|
|
RETURN: |
14.56u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Tom Breese |
to Win |
-122 |
|
| + Luis Pena |
to Win |
-269 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+150 |
|
|
BET: |
5u |
|
|
RETURN: |
12.48u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Sergei Spivac |
to Win |
-108 |
|
| + TJ Brown |
to Win |
+113 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+310 |
|
|
BET: |
4u |
|
|
RETURN: |
16.41u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Kyler Phillips |
to Win |
+109 |
|
| + Spike Carlyle |
to Win |
+158 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+439 |
|
|
BET: |
4u |
|
|
RETURN: |
21.57u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Magomed Ankalaev |
to Win by TKO/KO/DQ |
+195 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+195 |
|
|
BET: |
4u |
|
|
RETURN: |
11.8u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Felicia Spencer |
to Win by Submission |
-170 |
|
| + Sean Brady |
to Win by Decision |
+185 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+353 |
|
|
BET: |
4u |
|
|
RETURN: |
18.11u |
| BET #3 |
|
|
|
| + Joseph Benavidez |
to Win |
-137 |
|
| + Sean Brady |
to Win |
+108 |
|
| + Sergei Spivac |
to Win |
-108 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+593 |
|
|
BET: |
4u |
|
|
RETURN: |
27.72u |
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Magomed Ankalaev |
to Win |
-200 |
|
| + Joseph Benavidez |
to Win |
-137 |
|
| + Megan Anderson |
to Win |
-224 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+275 |
|
|
BET: |
10u |
|
|
RETURN: |
37.53u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
+ Sean Brady
|
to Win |
+108 |
|
| + Tom Breese |
to Win |
-122 |
|
| + Luis Pena |
to Win |
-269 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+419 |
|
|
BET: |
8u |
|
|
RETURN: |
41.54u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Sergei Spivac |
to Win |
-108 |
|
| + TJ Brown |
to Win |
+113 |
|
| + Spike Carlyle |
to Win |
+158 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+958 |
|
|
BET: |
6u |
|
|
RETURN: |
63.5u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Sergei Spivac |
to Win |
-108 |
|
| + TJ Brown |
to Win |
+113 |
|
| + Kyler Phillips |
to Win |
+109 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+757 |
|
|
BET: |
6u |
|
|
RETURN: |
51.44u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Felicia Spencer |
to Win by Submission |
-170 |
|
| + Sean Brady |
to Win by Decision |
+185 |
|
| + Magomed Ankalaev |
to Win by TKO/KO/DQ |
+195 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+1235 |
|
|
BET: |
6u |
|
|
RETURN: |
80.12u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Joseph Benavidez |
to Win |
-137 |
|
| + Sean Brady |
to Win |
+108 |
|
| + Sergei Spivac |
to Win |
-108 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+593 |
|
|
BET: |
6u |
|
|
RETURN: |
41.58u |
| BET #3 |
|
|
|
| + Tom Breese |
to Win |
-122 |
|
| + Kyler Phillips |
to Win |
+109 |
|
| + TJ Brown |
to Win |
+113 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+710 |
|
|
BET: |
6u |
|
|
RETURN: |
48.6u |
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
| + Felicia Spencer |
$9400 |
|
| + Kyler Phillips |
$7800 |
|
| + Sergei Spivac |
$8200 |
|
| + TJ Brown |
$7700 |
|
| + Sean Brady |
$7600 |
|
| + Magomed Ankalaev |
$9000 |
|
Spares
Betting Breakdowns
Deiveson Figueiredo +125 vs Joseph Benavidez -137
- This could be Joe’s last chance at MMA gold. He is 0-3 in title fights, with 2 split decision losses, and fought 2 of the best all-time. If he can’t get up for this bout, I’m not sure what to tell you.
- The 5 rounds is certainly a factor here, especially if Benavidez can get some grappling involved early.
- The line movement is bringing some value to our side.
- While Figueiredo is dangerous, Joe is one of the more proven commodities on the card.
- Gold Bet for the Joe B.
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
- Benavidez can produce points, but Figueiredo is a tough out. I will pass here.
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Zarah Fairn +593 vs Felicia Spencer -769
- I won’t touch this one straight up for obvious reasons.
- No Play.
Prop Bet:
- Felicia Spencer to Win by Submission -170
- Fairn got tapped by a girl that got tapped by Spencer- MMA Math (not ideal in most scenarios)
- Regardless, I think this is still a solid play with my biggest concern coming in the form of a GNP based TKO win for Spencer.
DK Lineup:
- She produced 109 points in her debut submission win and I expect something similar here.
- Despite her big price tag, she is clearly worth the investment.
- Add her.
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Magomed Ankalaev -200 vs Ion Cutelaba +190
- This is a solid matchup between a pair of dangerous fighters.
- The key difference is that Ankalaev is dangerous over a longer period of time and potentially more durable.
- He opened around -400 so we have cut that line in half which is solid for us.
- Gold Play for Ankalaev, most likely pair up with Benavidez.
- Live Bet: If Cutelaba gets of to a strong start and the value improves on Ankalaev, jump in as Ion tends to fade.
Prop Bet:
- Magomed Ankalaev to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +195
- These are both action fighters, I don’t expect that we will see the scorecards.
- Look for Magomed to find a dominant position once Ion slows down.
DK Lineup:
- Cutelaba is the type that lives by the sword and dies by the sword, he is all in.
- That works in our favour for Ankalaev who should most likely be able to get the finish.
- Add him.
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Megan Anderson -224 vs Norma Dumont +196
- Anderson impressed me in her last fight- it was like she had a point to prove.
- Is she still vulnerable on the mat against the right opponent? Probably.
- I think she has the edge here almost anywhere this fight goes and her size magnifies it.
- She was around the -400 mark at the open so we are getting a solid return.
- I feel like coupling her with Benavidez and Ankalaev is a solid play.
- Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
- As much as I want to make a play here, I will pass.
DK Lineup:
- Anderson is a little too out of my range even though a stoppage is likely.
- Pass.
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Grant Dawson -400 vs Darrick Minner +389
- There is too much uncertainty here to consider a bet on Dawson.
- Minner is a vet with experience and at this price he is worth a Counter Bet look.
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
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Steve Garcia +241 vs Luis Pena -269
- Garcia is moving up in weight and has also fought at BW before so the jump is big.
- He is also coming in on short notice.
- Pena should be motivated by the bad split decision and with 2 on his record that will push him to be better.
- The line has improved from its original -330 open which is solid.
- I like Pena as a Silver play here to pair with a couple of narrow favourites.
Prop Bet:
- I do not believe the UFC has this fight pegged in the Final prelim spot- this is a pass.
DK Lineup:
- Pena is pretty expensive and with such a late change lets look at some other options.
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Brendan Allen +118 vs Tom Breese -122
- This should be a fun fight- Allen is in his second UFC bout and Breese is coming back from a long layoff.
- Allen pulled off a nice win in his debut, but some of that needs to be attributed to his opponent’s poor fight IQ. Holland has routinely fought to his opponent’s strengths and that caught up with him.
- Breese is a solid grappler in his own right and a good striker- I think this is key here
- Look for Allen to give up some bad spots as he gets too aggressive on the mat.
- Breese was a slight dog/ even at the open and has moved a bit- I still like the return.
- Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
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Sergei Spivac -108 vs Marcin Tybura +103
- There has been very minimal movement for this line which is expected.
- Most people don’t really know what we are getting here.
- Spivac is relatively new and still developing.
- Tybura started strong and is now struggling which could be a product of an increase in competition.
- I think Spivac is in a better place and as the heavier and younger man, he can impose his will.
- Still a tough fight to call.
- Bronze Play.
Prop Bet:
- This could be a quick finish or a grinding, slow-paced battle once they tire.
- From a betting perspective, I just want the win.
- Pass.
DK Lineup:
- Conversely, the price of $8200 makes Spivac (10 wins and 10 finishes) a solid add to your lineup.
- Tybura has been finished on multiple occasions. That works for me.
- We are looking for finishers and he fits the bill against a fit.
- Add him.
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Kyler Phillips +109 vs Gabriel Silva -117
- Both guys are talented, but there appears to be a bit more upside fo Phillips.
- I like to fade fighters that debut and do better than expected, but still lose the fight. The odds tend to be inflated in their next fight and they often come up short.
- Phillips goes hard early and Silva eventually falters.
- Still, lots of unknown.
- Bronze Play.
Prop Bet:
- This appears to be the final fight of the Undercard, but with all the changes this scenario is a little tainted.
- Pass.
DK Lineup:
- Phillips is a slight dog and has shown the finishing touch.
- 5 finishes in 6 wins
- With a couple of big-ticket favs in the lineup, we have to find deals somewhere and I think he is one of them.
- Add him.
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TJ Brown +113 vs Jordan Griffin -123
- This will be an all-action fight from start to finish.
- Brown represents the type of talented grappler that Griffin has struggled with.
- But…Griffin is dangerous and Brown has been finished multiple times.
- I like Brown to suck him into a grappling exchange and then go to work on the mat.
- The line was much better on Brown, but it has been moving pretty consistently since the open.
- I was thinking about a Silver play, but I will drop Griffin one level.
- Bronze Bet.
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
- Brown is a capable finisher on the mat and should be able to score points with takedowns and transitions.
- He is another affordable dog with the ability to finish and free up some cash for the team.
- Add him.
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Spike Carlyle+158 vs Aalon Cruz -172
- I am rolling with the dog here.
- I think Cruz offers good technique and can work from range effectively, but he is ill-equipt to deal with an aggressive opponent.
- His 2 submission losses suggest he will have issues with a grappling oriented fighter.
- Spike is just that and he will close the gap and keep pushing which will but Cruz behind on the cards.
- The line had added some value here on our fighter which is an added incentive.
- Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
- See the Betting Scenario section.
DK Lineup:
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Sean Brady +108 vs Ismail Naurdiev -110
- I am not nearly as high on Naurdiev as many others.
- He has proven vulnerable, both in the UFC and regional scene, to takedowns.
- Brady is the more active striker and capable of utilizing takedowns to augment his volume.
- Naurdiev is a sharp striker with power, but that will only carry you so far. Some of his UFC success as been built around his opponents’ style.
- Brady outworks him for the duration.
- Silver Bet
Prop Bet:
- See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
- Brady is not known for his finishing skills which will impact how frequently he is picked.
- The key will be volume and takedowns.
- He landed over 100 significant strikes in his debut and had over 100 fantasy points.
- Let’s look for a repeat performance for a very affordable option.
- Add him.
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Confidence List
1. Felicia Spencer -769
2. Magomed Ankalaev -200
3. Joseph Benavidez -137
4. Luis Pena -269
5. Megan Anderson -224
====================
6. Sean Brady +108
7. Grant Dawson -400
8. Sergei Spivac -108
9. Tom Breese -122
10. TJ Brown +113
11. Kyler Phillips +109
12. Spike Carlyle +158
13.
Value Bet List
1. Sean Brady +108
2. TJ Brown +113
3. Spike Carlyle+158
4. Kyler Phillips +109
5. Joseph Benavidez -137
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Counter Bets
1. Darrick Minner +389
2.
3.
4.
5.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
| UFC 190: Rousey vs. Correia |
Test Run
[Fight_1]Test Run[/Fight_1] |
UFC on FOX 16: Dillashaw vs Barao 2
| July 25th 2015 | Chicago, Illinois, USA |
| Main Card |
| T.J. DILLASHAW | vs. | RENAN BARAO | | | |
| MIESHA TATE | vs. | JESSICA EYE | | | |
| EDSON BARBOZA | vs. | PAUL FELDER | | | |
| TAKANORI GOMI | vs. | JOE LAUZON | | | |
| Preliminary Card |
| TOM LAWLOR | vs. | GIAN VILLANTE | JAMES KRAUSE | vs. | DARON CRUICKSHANK |
| JIM MILLER | vs. | DANNY CASTILLO | ANDREW HOLBROOK | vs. | RAMSEY NIJEM |
| KENNY ROBERTSON | vs. | BEN SAUNDERS | JESSAMYN DUKE | vs. | ELIZABETH PHILLIPS |
| EDDIE WINELAND | vs. | BRYAN CARAWAY | ZAK CUMMINGS | vs. | DOMINIQUE STEELE |
| UFC 214: Cormier vs Jones 2 |
 C. Daniel Cormier |  | CTRY. | |  #1 Jon Jones |
| 19-1 | REC | 22-1 |
| 4W | STREAK | 13W |
| +230 | ODDS | -245 |
| 205 | WEIGHT | 205 |
| 5'11" | HEIGHT | 6'4" |
| 72.5" | REACH | 84.5" |
| 38 | AGE | 30 |
COUNTDOWN TO UFC 214
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EPU Candidate(s)
1. Spike Carlyle/Aalon Cruz
Pass. I will take the dog anyway we can get the Win. Let’s not complicate things.
2. Sean Brady to Win by Decision +185
Brady’s decision heavy record on the regional scene most likely won’t translate to a pile of finishes in the UFC. He is hard worker and will look to outhustle the flashier Naurdiev. Take him on the cards.
| EPU | Under 1.5 | Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Over x2 |
| 2014 | 42 | 46 | 46 | 11 of 46 Events |
| 2015 | 28 | 35 | 42 | 10 of 39 Events |
| 2016 | 28 | 38 | 41 | 11 of 41 Events |
| 2017 | 27 | 40 | 35 | 8 of 38 Events |
| 2018 | 26 | 35 | 30 | 8 of 33 Events |
| 2019 | 18 | 27 | 49 | 15 of 39 Events |
| 2020 | 12 | 16 | 23 | 7 of 22 Events |
| FP | W | L | Win % |
| 2015 Picks | 47 | 24 | 23 | 51% |
| 2016 Picks | 55 | 31 | 24 | 56% |
| 2017 Picks | 47 | 20 | 27 | 43% |
| 2018 Picks | 42 | 25 | 17 | 60% |
| 2019 Picks | 32 | 13 | 19 | 41% |
| 2020 Picks | 23 | 8 | 15 | 35% |
| | | | |
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FPO Candidate
1. No Play- there have been multiple changes to the fights on the card and the order, so as of right now this play is not available.
| Final Prelim | FP | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Over % |
| 2014 | 46 | 30 | 16 | 65% |
| 2015 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 44% |
| 2016 | 39 | 26 | 13 | 67% |
| 2017 | 34 | 25 | 9 | 74% |
| 2018 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 67% |
| 2019 | 38 | 23 | 15 | 61% |
| 2020 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 58% |
| FP | W | L | Win % |
| 2015 Picks | 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% |
| 2016 Picks | 35 | 17 | 18 | 49% |
| 2017 Picks | 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% |
| 2018 Picks | 31 | 13 | 18 | 42% |
| 2019 Picks | 30 | 9 | 21 | 30% |
| 2020 Picks | 10 | 4 | 6 | 40% |
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HEF Candidate(s)
1. Deiveson Figueiredo +125 vs Joseph Benavidez -137
2. Brendan Allen +118 vs Tom Breese -122
3. Sergei Spivac -108 vs Marcin Tybura +103
4. Kyler Phillips +109 vs Gabriel Silva -117
5. TJ Brown +113 vs Jordan Griffin -123
6. Sean Brady +108 vs Ismail Naurdiev -110
| HEFs | FP | W | L | WIN % |
| 2015 | 177 | 93 | 84 | 53% |
| 2016 | 212 | 106 | 106 | 50% |
| 2017 | 179 | 110 | 69 | 61% |
| 2018 | 192 | 100 | 92 | 52% |
| 2019 | 217 | 100 | 117 | 46% |
| 2020 | 102 | 52 | 50 | 51% |
| FP | W | L | Win % |
| 2015 Picks | 181 | 97 | 84 | 54% |
| 2016 Picks | 212 | 108 | 104 | 51% |
| 2017 Picks | 179 | 87 | 92 | 49% |
| 2018 Picks | 192 | 95 | 97 | 49% |
| 2019 Picks | 211 | 110 | 101 | 52% |
| 2020 Picks | 102 | 46 | 56 | 45% |
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.
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