UFC Fight Night 169: Benavidez vs Figueiredo | Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Night 169: Benavidez vs Figueiredo | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Magomed Ankalaev  to Win -200
+ Joseph Benavidez  to Win -137
+ Megan Anderson  to Win -224
ODDS: +275
BET: 9u
RETURN: 33.78u


Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Sean Brady  to Win +108
ODDS: +108
BET: 7u
RETURN: 14.56u

 

BET #2
+ Tom Breese  to Win -122
+ Luis Pena  to Win -269
ODDS: +150
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12.48u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Sergei Spivac  to Win -108
+ TJ Brown  to Win +113
ODDS: +310
BET: 4u
RETURN: 16.41u

 

BET #2
+ Kyler Phillips  to Win +109
+ Spike Carlyle to Win +158
ODDS: +439
BET: 4u
RETURN: 21.57u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Magomed Ankalaev   to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +195
ODDS: +195
BET: 4u
RETURN: 11.8u

 

BET #2
+ Felicia Spencer  to Win by Submission -170
+ Sean Brady  to Win by Decision +185
ODDS: +353
BET: 4u
RETURN: 18.11u

 

BET #3
+ Joseph Benavidez  to Win -137
+ Sean Brady  to Win +108
+ Sergei Spivac  to Win -108
ODDS: +593
BET: 4u
RETURN: 27.72u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Magomed Ankalaev  to Win -200
+ Joseph Benavidez  to Win -137
+ Megan Anderson  to Win -224
ODDS: +275
BET: 10u
RETURN: 37.53u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Sean Brady 
to Win +108
+ Tom Breese  to Win -122
+ Luis Pena  to Win -269
ODDS: +419
BET: 8u
RETURN: 41.54u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Sergei Spivac  to Win -108
+ TJ Brown  to Win +113
+ Spike Carlyle to Win +158
ODDS: +958
BET: 6u
RETURN: 63.5u

 

BET #2
+ Sergei Spivac  to Win -108
+ TJ Brown  to Win +113
+ Kyler Phillips  to Win +109
ODDS: +757
BET: 6u
RETURN: 51.44u


Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Felicia Spencer  to Win by Submission -170
+ Sean Brady  to Win by Decision +185
+ Magomed Ankalaev   to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +195
ODDS: +1235
BET: 6u
RETURN: 80.12u

 

BET #2
+ Joseph Benavidez  to Win -137
+ Sean Brady  to Win +108
+ Sergei Spivac  to Win -108
ODDS: +593
BET: 6u
RETURN: 41.58u

 

BET #3
+ Tom Breese  to Win -122
+ Kyler Phillips  to Win +109
+ TJ Brown  to Win +113
ODDS: +710
BET: 6u
RETURN: 48.6u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Felicia Spencer $9400
+ Kyler Phillips $7800
+ Sergei Spivac $8200
+ TJ Brown $7700
+ Sean Brady  $7600
+ Magomed Ankalaev $9000

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Deiveson Figueiredo +125 vs Joseph Benavidez -137

  • This could be Joe’s last chance at MMA gold. He is 0-3 in title fights, with 2 split decision losses, and fought 2 of the best all-time. If he can’t get up for this bout, I’m not sure what to tell you.
  • The 5 rounds is certainly a factor here, especially if Benavidez can get some grappling involved early.
  • The line movement is bringing some value to our side.
  • While Figueiredo is dangerous, Joe is one of the more proven commodities on the card.
  • Gold Bet for the Joe B.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Benavidez can produce points, but Figueiredo is a tough out. I will pass here.

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Zarah Fairn +593 vs Felicia Spencer -769

  • I won’t touch this one straight up for obvious reasons.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Felicia Spencer to Win by Submission -170
  • Fairn got tapped by a girl that got tapped by Spencer- MMA Math (not ideal in most scenarios)
  • Regardless, I think this is still a solid play with my biggest concern coming in the form of a GNP based TKO win for Spencer.

DK Lineup:

  • She produced 109 points in her debut submission win and I expect something similar here.
  • Despite her big price tag, she is clearly worth the investment.
  • Add her.

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Magomed Ankalaev -200 vs Ion Cutelaba +190

  • This is a solid matchup between a pair of dangerous fighters.
  • The key difference is that Ankalaev is dangerous over a longer period of time and potentially more durable.
  • He opened around -400 so we have cut that line in half which is solid for us.
  • Gold Play for Ankalaev, most likely pair up with Benavidez.
  • Live Bet: If Cutelaba gets of to a strong start and the value improves on Ankalaev, jump in as Ion tends to fade.

Prop Bet:

  • Magomed Ankalaev to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +195
  • These are both action fighters, I don’t expect that we will see the scorecards.
  • Look for Magomed to find a dominant position once Ion slows down.

DK Lineup:

  • Cutelaba is the type that lives by the sword and dies by the sword, he is all in.
  • That works in our favour for Ankalaev who should most likely be able to get the finish.
  • Add him.

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Megan Anderson -224 vs Norma Dumont +196

  • Anderson impressed me in her last fight- it was like she had a point to prove.
  • Is she still vulnerable on the mat against the right opponent? Probably.
  • I think she has the edge here almost anywhere this fight goes and her size magnifies it.
  • She was around the -400 mark at the open so we are getting a solid return.
  • I feel like coupling her with Benavidez and Ankalaev is a solid play.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • As much as I want to make a play here, I will pass.

DK Lineup:

  • Anderson is a little too out of my range even though a stoppage is likely.
  • Pass.

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Grant Dawson -400 vs Darrick Minner +389

  • There is too much uncertainty here to consider a bet on Dawson.
  • Minner is a vet with experience and at this price he is worth a Counter Bet look.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Steve Garcia +241 vs Luis Pena -269

  • Garcia is moving up in weight and has also fought at BW before so the jump is big.
  • He is also coming in on short notice.
  • Pena should be motivated by the bad split decision and with 2 on his record that will push him to be better.
  • The line has improved from its original -330 open which is solid.
  • I like Pena as a Silver play here to pair with a couple of narrow favourites.

Prop Bet:

  • I do not believe the UFC has this fight pegged in the Final prelim spot- this is a pass.

DK Lineup:

  • Pena is pretty expensive and with such a late change lets look at some other options.

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Brendan Allen +118 vs Tom Breese -122

  • This should be a fun fight- Allen is in his second UFC bout and Breese is coming back from a long layoff.
  • Allen pulled off a nice win in his debut, but some of that needs to be attributed to his opponent’s poor fight IQ. Holland has routinely fought to his opponent’s strengths and that caught up with him.
  • Breese is a solid grappler in his own right and a good striker- I think this is key here
  • Look for Allen to give up some bad spots as he gets too aggressive on the mat.
  • Breese was a slight dog/ even at the open and has moved a bit- I still like the return.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Sergei Spivac -108 vs Marcin Tybura +103

  • There has been very minimal movement for this line which is expected.
  • Most people don’t really know what we are getting here.
  • Spivac is relatively new and still developing.
  • Tybura started strong and is now struggling which could be a product of an increase in competition.
  • I think Spivac is in a better place and as the heavier and younger man, he can impose his will.
  • Still a tough fight to call.
  • Bronze Play.

Prop Bet:

  • This could be a quick finish or a grinding, slow-paced battle once they tire.
  • From a betting perspective, I just want the win.
  • Pass.

DK Lineup:

  • Conversely, the price of $8200 makes Spivac (10 wins and 10 finishes) a solid add to your lineup.
  • Tybura has been finished on multiple occasions. That works for me.
  • We are looking for finishers and he fits the bill against a fit.
  • Add him.

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Kyler Phillips +109 vs Gabriel Silva -117

  • Both guys are talented, but there appears to be a bit more upside fo Phillips.
  • I like to fade fighters that debut and do better than expected, but still lose the fight. The odds tend to be inflated in their next fight and they often come up short.
  • Phillips goes hard early and Silva eventually falters.
  • Still, lots of unknown.
  • Bronze Play.

Prop Bet:

  • This appears to be the final fight of the Undercard, but with all the changes this scenario is a little tainted.
  • Pass.

DK Lineup:

  • Phillips is a slight dog and has shown the finishing touch.
  • 5 finishes in 6 wins
  • With a couple of big-ticket favs in the lineup, we have to find deals somewhere and I think he is one of them.
  • Add him.

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TJ Brown +113 vs Jordan Griffin -123

  • This will be an all-action fight from start to finish.
  • Brown represents the type of talented grappler that Griffin has struggled with.
  • But…Griffin is dangerous and Brown has been finished multiple times.
  • I like Brown to suck him into a grappling exchange and then go to work on the mat.
  • The line was much better on Brown, but it has been moving pretty consistently since the open.
  • I was thinking about a Silver play, but I will drop Griffin one level.
  • Bronze Bet.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Brown is a capable finisher on the mat and should be able to score points with takedowns and transitions.
  • He is another affordable dog with the ability to finish and free up some cash for the team.
  • Add him.

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Spike Carlyle+158 vs Aalon Cruz -172

  • I am rolling with the dog here.
  • I think Cruz offers good technique and can work from range effectively, but he is ill-equipt to deal with an aggressive opponent.
  • His 2 submission losses suggest he will have issues with a grappling oriented fighter.
  • Spike is just that and he will close the gap and keep pushing which will but Cruz behind on the cards.
  • The line had added some value here on our fighter which is an added incentive.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Sean Brady +108 vs Ismail Naurdiev -110

  • I am not nearly as high on Naurdiev as many others.
  • He has proven vulnerable, both in the UFC and regional scene, to takedowns.
  • Brady is the more active striker and capable of utilizing takedowns to augment his volume.
  • Naurdiev is a sharp striker with power, but that will only carry you so far. Some of his UFC success as been built around his opponents’ style.
  • Brady outworks him for the duration.
  • Silver Bet

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Brady is not known for his finishing skills which will impact how frequently he is picked.
  • The key will be volume and takedowns.
  • He landed over 100 significant strikes in his debut and had over 100 fantasy points.
  • Let’s look for a repeat performance for a very affordable option.
  • Add him.

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Confidence List

1. Felicia Spencer -769

2. Magomed Ankalaev -200

3. Joseph Benavidez -137

4. Luis Pena -269

5. Megan Anderson -224

====================

6. Sean Brady +108

7.  Grant Dawson -400

8. Sergei Spivac -108

9. Tom Breese -122

10. TJ Brown +113

11. Kyler Phillips +109

12. Spike Carlyle +158

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Sean Brady +108

2. TJ Brown +113

3. Spike Carlyle+158

4. Kyler Phillips +109

5. Joseph Benavidez -137

 

Counter Bets

1. Darrick Minner +389

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Spike Carlyle/Aalon Cruz

Pass. I will take the dog anyway we can get the Win. Let’s not complicate things.

2. Sean Brady to Win by Decision +185

Brady’s decision heavy record on the regional scene most likely won’t translate to a pile of finishes in the UFC. He is hard worker and will look to outhustle the flashier Naurdiev. Take him on the cards.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
6
8
11
3 of 10 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
112918%

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FPO Candidate

1. No Play- there have been multiple changes to the fights on the card and the order, so as of right now this play is not available.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
86275%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
52340%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Deiveson Figueiredo +125 vs Joseph Benavidez -137

2. Brendan Allen +118 vs Tom Breese -122

3. Sergei Spivac -108 vs Marcin Tybura +103

4. Kyler Phillips +109 vs Gabriel Silva -117

5. TJ Brown +113 vs Jordan Griffin -123

6. Sean Brady +108 vs Ismail Naurdiev -110

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
56263046%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
56292752%

 

 

 

 

Scott Johnson

scott

Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel's popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.

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