Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack
Parlays & Single Bets
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Michal Oleksiejczuk |
to Win |
-120 |
 |
| + Dan Hooker |
to Win |
-145 |
 |
|
|
ODDS: |
+210 |
|
|
BET: |
8u |
|
|
RETURN: |
24.78u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Yan Xiaonan |
to Win |
-225 |
|
| + Magomed Mustafaev |
to Win |
-135 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+151 |
|
|
BET: |
8u |
|
|
RETURN: |
20.12u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
to Win |
-145 |
|
| + Kai Kara-France |
to Win |
-250 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+137 |
|
|
BET: |
6u |
|
|
RETURN: |
14.19u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Song Kenan |
to Win |
-195 |
|
| + Jake Matthews |
to Win |
-200 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+127 |
|
|
BET: |
6u |
|
|
RETURN: |
13.62u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Loma Lookboonmee |
to Win |
+162 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+162 |
|
|
BET: |
5u |
|
|
RETURN: |
13.1u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Shana Dobson |
to Win |
-160 |
|
| + Kevin Aguilar |
to Win |
-108 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+213 |
|
|
BET: |
4u |
|
|
RETURN: |
12.52u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Michal Oleksiejczuk |
to Win by TKO/KO/DQ |
+165 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+165 |
|
|
BET: |
4u |
|
|
RETURN: |
10.6u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Kai Kara-France |
to Win by Decision |
-105 |
|
| + Magomed Mustafaev |
to Win |
-135 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+240 |
|
|
BET: |
4u |
|
|
RETURN: |
13.59u |
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Michal Oleksiejczuk |
to Win |
-120 |
|
| + Dan Hooker |
to Win |
-145 |
|
| + Yan Xiaonan |
to Win |
-225 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+347 |
|
|
BET: |
9u |
|
|
RETURN: |
40.27u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Yan Xiaonan |
to Win |
-225 |
|
| + Magomed Mustafaev |
to Win |
-135 |
|
| + Michal Oleksiejczuk |
to Win |
-120 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+361 |
|
|
BET: |
9u |
|
|
RETURN: |
41.49u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
to Win |
-145 |
|
| + Song Kenan |
to Win |
-195 |
|
| + Jake Matthews |
to Win |
-200 |
|
| + Kai Kara-France |
to Win |
-250 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+437 |
|
|
BET: |
7u |
|
|
RETURN: |
37.58u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Shana Dobson |
to Win |
-160 |
|
+ Loma Lookboonmee
|
to Win |
+162 |
|
| + Kevin Aguilar |
to Win |
-108 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+720 |
|
|
BET: |
6u |
|
|
RETURN: |
49.2u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Dan Hooker |
to Win |
-145 |
|
| + Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
to Win |
-145 |
|
| + Loma Lookboonmee |
to Win |
+162 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+648 |
|
|
BET: |
5u |
|
|
RETURN: |
37.4u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Michal Oleksiejczuk |
to Win |
-120 |
|
| + Magomed Mustafaev |
to Win |
-135 |
|
| + Kevin Aguilar |
to Win |
-108 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+515 |
|
|
BET: |
5u |
|
|
RETURN: |
30.73u |
| BET #3 |
|
|
|
| + Kai Kara-France |
to Win by Decision |
-105 |
|
| + Michal Oleksiejczuk |
to Win by TKO/KO/DQ |
+165 |
|
| + Song Kenan |
to Win by TKO/KO/DQ |
+125 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+1064 |
|
|
BET: |
5u |
|
|
RETURN: |
58.21u |
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
| + Marcos Rogerio De Lima |
$8500 |
|
| + Michal Oleksiejczuk |
$8200 |
|
| + Magomed Mustafaev |
$8400 |
|
| + Loma Lookboonmee |
$7300 |
|
| + Jalin Turner |
$8800 |
|
| + Dan Hooker |
$8700 |
|
Spares
Betting Breakdowns
Paul Felder +135 vs Dan Hooker -145
- This should be a solid fight and could really go either way, but there are a few key aspects that favour Hooker.
- Fighting at home is a massive edge for Dan, the travel for Felder and extra support for Hooker mean a lot in a close fight.
- Also in a close decision, home-field advantage matters.
- I like Hooker’s reach, use of jab, and newfound aggression against a fighter known for close fights.
- This fight was a near pick’em at the open so we have lost a little value on the Hangman, but I still really like him here.
- Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
- I didn’t have Hooker in my original lineup, but I reworked it.
- He is a finisher and his new aggression will allow him to pile up the volume in a longer fight.
- I changed out Aguilar and Matthews for Turner and Hooker.
- Add him.
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Jimmy Crute +112 vs Michal Oleksiejczuk -120
- I love Oleksiejczuk here.
- Crute is aggressive, but that it fine by Michal.
- The Pole has won every exchange in the UFC with the exception of 1 TD and an unexpected sub by OSP.
- Crute will push early, but Michal will match him and pull away when he fades.
- Oleksiejczuk opened around -150 and I capped him closer to -200 so this is a deal.
- Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
- Michal Oleksiejczuk to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +165
- He has recorded 10 of 14 wins by knockout, 2 in the UFC, and narrowly missed the 3rd.
- Either by one punch or death by accumulation- Michal gets it done.
DK Lineup:
- For the same reasons above, you have to have him in your lineup.
- He is more affordable than he should be and has stopping power, volume, and can stop with volume.
- Add him.
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Karolina Kowalkiewicz +245 vs Yan Xiaonan -225
- KK is a shell of her former self and Yan is hitting her stride.
- To me, this is a showcase/ stepping stone fight as the UFC tries to further grow the China market.
- KK can’t match her pace or physicality for a full 3 rounds.
- The line has moved against us, but I still like Xiaonan here.
- Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
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Marcos Rogerio de Lima -145 vs Ben Sosoli +135
- De Lima is a tricky fighter. He is tough as nails, but also quite vulnerable.
- He has done the classic 1 up and 1 down which is indicative of a fighter that can beat the bottom half, but not the top.
- Unless Sosoli out-toughs him and Marcos ties, the power and skills lies with the Brazilian.
- The line moved, but has settled roughly where it started.
- Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
- Sosoli is tough, but De Lima straight cracks with his hands and legs.
- Look for Rogerio to batter him with low kicks and then unload with combos as Ben slows.
- Add him.
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Magomed Mustafaev -135 vs Brad Riddell +126
- The line movement has to be addressed first.
- Mustafaev opened at -425 and dropped like a stone? Why?
- I feel like Riddell is decent, but Mustafaev is more well-rounded and tested.
- Riddell is home which will help, but Mustafaev gets it done with a combo of unorthodox striking and some possible top time.
- Value dictates a Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
- No Play.
- I need to get back on track so the prop plays will be far and few between on this card.
DK Lineup:
- 4 UFC wins, 4 UFC stoppages.
- Riddell’s striking D isn’t amazing so he will be open to take some damage
- Back the Russian to finish.
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Kevin Aguilar -108 vs Zubaira Tukhugov +100
- This is a near pick’em fight which is accurate.
- I haven’t been impressed with Tukhugov while Aguilar is coming off an underwhelming performance after a strong start in the UFC.
- Aguilar needs to defend TDs and throw volume- that is his normal approach.
- Zubaira isn’t active enough and only wins with 5-6 TDs and some prolonged top control.
- Still could be close.
- Strong Bronze Play.
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
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Josh Culibao +185 vs Jalin Turner -200
- The mounting number of Turner knockout losses and his underwhelming performance last time out makes this an easy pass.
- I still think Turner wins this, but there are other options here.
- No Play.
Prop Bet:
- See the Betting Scenario Section
DK Lineup:
- Turner does have power and length and is fighting a late replacement Featherweight.
- I opted to slide Jalin and Hooker into the lineup over Aguilar and Matthews.
- I think if Turner fights to his potential he can finish this fight.
- Add him.
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Jake Matthews -200 vs Emil Meek +187
- Matthews needs to go back to his wrestling here.
- Meek can simply not stay vertical and while he is strong and a good finisher, he just can stay in a position to deploy it.
- I like Matthews to grind him out here and get the nod via decision or sub.
- Decent price.
- Silver play.
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
- See the Turner DK breakdown.
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Song Kenan -195 vs Callan Potter +180
- Potter is coming off a pretty solid performance, but there were some contributing factors for his opponent too.
- Song is a pretty solid technical striker and has finishing power which should test the shaky durability of his opponent.
- Song just has too many ways to win this fight and the line moved in our favour.
- Silver play for Song.
Prop Bet:
- Song Kenan to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +125
- Potter has been stopped in all 8 of his losses and Song has finishing power.
- I like Potter to come out aggressive and get cracked by the more technical striker.
DK Lineup:
- Song has stopping power, but he is too expensive for our plan.
- No Play.
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Kai Kara-France -250 vs Tyson Nam +230
- We’ve got some movement from Kara-France here as he was originally in the mid -300 range.
- Nam’s style is not suited to win at this level and unless he clips Kai, he will struggle here.
- Fighting in NZ, you would expect KKF to get a favourable matchup and he has.
- Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
- Kai Kara-France to Win by Decision -105
- Kai hits pretty hard, but Nam is pretty durable and should be able to send this fight the distance.
- With Nam’s .500 record in a decision, I like our chances if they go the distance.
DK Lineup:
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Angela Hill -170 vs Loma Lookboonmee +162
- Hill is awesome for taking this fight on short notice and fighting so frequently, but it could come back to haunt her.
- She is facing a quick turn around, short notice, and a big trip all to face an opponent she has limited knowledge of.
- Loma is undersized, but her speed and sharp striking technique will give Hall problems
- I think Lookboonmee is being undervalued here, but she is still pretty new.
- Bronze Play.
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
- I have her in my lineup because she is cheap allows us to add almost anyone we want.
- She is also going to land a decent amount of volume and stands a good chance of winning on the cards.
- Add her.
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Maki Pitolo +123 vs Takashi Sato -125– CANCELLED
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
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Priscila Cachoeira +175 vs Shana Dobson -160
- Cachoeira’s resume makes it difficult to see why she is still on the roster- 0-3 and a failed drug test.
- Dobson hasn’t exactly been the model of consistency either, but she is the better fighter based on the Brazilian’s deficiency
Prop Bet:
- See the Betting Scenario Section
DK Lineup:
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Confidence List
1. Yan Xiaonan -225
2. Jake Matthews -200
3. Michal Oleksiejczuk -120
4. Magomed Mustafaev -135
5. Jalin Turner -200
====================
6. Dan Hooker -145
7. Kai Kara-France -250
8. Song Kenan -195
9. Marcos Rogerio de Lima -145
10. Loma Lookboonmee +162
11. Shana Dobson -160
12. Kevin Aguilar -108
13.
Value Bet List
1. Michal Oleksiejczuk -120
2. Magomed Mustafaev -135
3. Loma Lookboonmee +162
4. Dan Hooker -145
5. Marcos Rogerio de Lima -145
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Counter Bets
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
| UFC 190: Rousey vs. Correia |
Test Run
[Fight_1]Test Run[/Fight_1] |
UFC on FOX 16: Dillashaw vs Barao 2
| July 25th 2015 | Chicago, Illinois, USA |
| Main Card |
| T.J. DILLASHAW | vs. | RENAN BARAO | | | |
| MIESHA TATE | vs. | JESSICA EYE | | | |
| EDSON BARBOZA | vs. | PAUL FELDER | | | |
| TAKANORI GOMI | vs. | JOE LAUZON | | | |
| Preliminary Card |
| TOM LAWLOR | vs. | GIAN VILLANTE | JAMES KRAUSE | vs. | DARON CRUICKSHANK |
| JIM MILLER | vs. | DANNY CASTILLO | ANDREW HOLBROOK | vs. | RAMSEY NIJEM |
| KENNY ROBERTSON | vs. | BEN SAUNDERS | JESSAMYN DUKE | vs. | ELIZABETH PHILLIPS |
| EDDIE WINELAND | vs. | BRYAN CARAWAY | ZAK CUMMINGS | vs. | DOMINIQUE STEELE |
| UFC 214: Cormier vs Jones 2 |
 C. Daniel Cormier |  | CTRY. | |  #1 Jon Jones |
| 19-1 | REC | 22-1 |
| 4W | STREAK | 13W |
| +230 | ODDS | -245 |
| 205 | WEIGHT | 205 |
| 5'11" | HEIGHT | 6'4" |
| 72.5" | REACH | 84.5" |
| 38 | AGE | 30 |
COUNTDOWN TO UFC 214
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EPU Candidate(s)
1. Priscila Cachoeira/Shana Dobson
I will pass here, Cachoeira is pretty durable and there is such a limited sample size that it is hard to feel confident either way.
2. Maki Pitolo/Takashi Sato– CANCELLED
I would have looked at this fight as the more likely of the 2 to hit the Under. Obviously, not an option now.
| EPU | Under 1.5 | Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Over x2 |
| 2014 | 42 | 46 | 46 | 11 of 46 Events |
| 2015 | 28 | 35 | 42 | 10 of 39 Events |
| 2016 | 28 | 38 | 41 | 11 of 41 Events |
| 2017 | 27 | 40 | 35 | 8 of 38 Events |
| 2018 | 26 | 35 | 30 | 8 of 33 Events |
| 2019 | 18 | 27 | 49 | 15 of 39 Events |
| 2020 | 12 | 16 | 23 | 7 of 22 Events |
| FP | W | L | Win % |
| 2015 Picks | 47 | 24 | 23 | 51% |
| 2016 Picks | 55 | 31 | 24 | 56% |
| 2017 Picks | 47 | 20 | 27 | 43% |
| 2018 Picks | 42 | 25 | 17 | 60% |
| 2019 Picks | 32 | 13 | 19 | 41% |
| 2020 Picks | 23 | 8 | 15 | 35% |
| | | | |
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FPO Candidate
1. Josh Culibao/Jalin Turner
I will leave this one alone, we know so little about Culibao it is hard to get a read on how he will fair against a larger/longer man on short notice.
| Final Prelim | FP | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Over % |
| 2014 | 46 | 30 | 16 | 65% |
| 2015 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 44% |
| 2016 | 39 | 26 | 13 | 67% |
| 2017 | 34 | 25 | 9 | 74% |
| 2018 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 67% |
| 2019 | 38 | 23 | 15 | 61% |
| 2020 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 58% |
| FP | W | L | Win % |
| 2015 Picks | 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% |
| 2016 Picks | 35 | 17 | 18 | 49% |
| 2017 Picks | 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% |
| 2018 Picks | 31 | 13 | 18 | 42% |
| 2019 Picks | 30 | 9 | 21 | 30% |
| 2020 Picks | 10 | 4 | 6 | 40% |
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HEF Candidate(s)
1. Paul Felder +135 vs Dan Hooker -145
2. Jimmy Crute +112 vs Michal Oleksiejczuk -120
3. Marcos Rogerio de Lima -145 vs Ben Sosoli +135
4. Magomed Mustafaev -135 vs Brad Riddell +126
5. Kevin Aguilar -108 vs Zubaira Tukhugov +100
6. Priscila Cachoeira +175 vs Shana Dobson -160
| HEFs | FP | W | L | WIN % |
| 2015 | 177 | 93 | 84 | 53% |
| 2016 | 212 | 106 | 106 | 50% |
| 2017 | 179 | 110 | 69 | 61% |
| 2018 | 192 | 100 | 92 | 52% |
| 2019 | 217 | 100 | 117 | 46% |
| 2020 | 102 | 52 | 50 | 51% |
| FP | W | L | Win % |
| 2015 Picks | 181 | 97 | 84 | 54% |
| 2016 Picks | 212 | 108 | 104 | 51% |
| 2017 Picks | 179 | 87 | 92 | 49% |
| 2018 Picks | 192 | 95 | 97 | 49% |
| 2019 Picks | 211 | 110 | 101 | 52% |
| 2020 Picks | 102 | 46 | 56 | 45% |
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.
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