UFC Fight Night 168: Felder vs Hooker | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk  to Win -120
+ Dan Hooker  to Win -145
ODDS: +210
BET: 8u
RETURN: 24.78u

 

BET #2
+ Yan Xiaonan to Win  -225
+ Magomed Mustafaev  to Win -135
ODDS: +151
BET: 8u
RETURN: 20.12u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Marcos Rogerio de Lima to Win  -145
+ Kai Kara-France  to Win -250
ODDS: +137
BET: 6u
RETURN: 14.19u

 

BET #2
+ Song Kenan  to Win -195
+ Jake Matthews to Win  -200
ODDS: +127
BET: 6u
RETURN: 13.62u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Loma Lookboonmee  to Win +162
ODDS: +162
BET: 5u
RETURN: 13.1u

 

BET #2
+ Shana Dobson  to Win -160
+ Kevin Aguilar  to Win -108
ODDS: +213
BET: 4u
RETURN: 12.52u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk   to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +165
ODDS: +165
BET: 4u
RETURN: 10.6u

 

BET #2
+ Kai Kara-France  to Win by Decision -105
+ Magomed Mustafaev  to Win -135
ODDS: +240
BET: 4u
RETURN: 13.59u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk  to Win -120
+ Dan Hooker  to Win -145
+ Yan Xiaonan to Win  -225
ODDS: +347
BET: 9u
RETURN: 40.27u

 

BET #2
+ Yan Xiaonan to Win  -225
+ Magomed Mustafaev  to Win -135
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk  to Win -120
ODDS: +361
BET: 9u
RETURN: 41.49u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Marcos Rogerio de Lima to Win  -145
+ Song Kenan  to Win -195
+ Jake Matthews to Win  -200
+ Kai Kara-France  to Win -250
ODDS: +437
BET: 7u
RETURN: 37.58u

Bronze Plays

BET #2
+ Shana Dobson  to Win -160
+ Loma Lookboonmee 
to Win +162
+ Kevin Aguilar  to Win -108
ODDS: +720
BET: 6u
RETURN: 49.2u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Dan Hooker  to Win -145
+ Marcos Rogerio de Lima to Win  -145
+ Loma Lookboonmee  to Win +162
ODDS: +648
BET: 5u
RETURN: 37.4u

 

BET #2
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk  to Win -120
+ Magomed Mustafaev  to Win -135
+ Kevin Aguilar  to Win -108
ODDS: +515
BET: 5u
RETURN: 30.73u

 

BET #3
+ Kai Kara-France  to Win by Decision -105
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk   to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +165
+ Song Kenan  to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +125
ODDS: +1064
BET: 5u
RETURN: 58.21u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Marcos Rogerio De Lima $8500
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk $8200
+ Magomed Mustafaev $8400
+ Loma Lookboonmee $7300
+ Jalin Turner $8800
+ Dan Hooker $8700

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Paul Felder +135 vs Dan Hooker -145

  • This should be a solid fight and could really go either way, but there are a few key aspects that favour Hooker.
  • Fighting at home is a massive edge for Dan, the travel for Felder and extra support for Hooker mean a lot in a close fight.
  • Also in a close decision, home-field advantage matters.
  • I like Hooker’s reach, use of jab, and newfound aggression against a fighter known for close fights.
  • This fight was a near pick’em at the open so we have lost a little value on the Hangman, but I still really like him here.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • I didn’t have Hooker in my original lineup, but I reworked it.
  • He is a finisher and his new aggression will allow him to pile up the volume in a longer fight.
  • I changed out Aguilar and Matthews for Turner and Hooker.
  • Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Jimmy Crute +112 vs Michal Oleksiejczuk -120

  • I love Oleksiejczuk here.
  • Crute is aggressive, but that it fine by Michal.
  • The Pole has won every exchange in the UFC with the exception of 1 TD and an unexpected sub by OSP.
  • Crute will push early, but Michal will match him and pull away when he fades.
  • Oleksiejczuk opened around -150 and I capped him closer to -200 so this is a deal.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Michal Oleksiejczuk to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +165
  • He has recorded 10 of 14 wins by knockout, 2 in the UFC, and narrowly missed the 3rd.
  • Either by one punch or death by accumulation- Michal gets it done.

DK Lineup:

  • For the same reasons above, you have to have him in your lineup.
  • He is more affordable than he should be and has stopping power, volume, and can stop with volume.
  • Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Karolina Kowalkiewicz +245 vs Yan Xiaonan -225

  • KK is a shell of her former self and Yan is hitting her stride.
  • To me, this is a showcase/ stepping stone fight as the UFC tries to further grow the China market.
  • KK can’t match her pace or physicality for a full 3 rounds.
  • The line has moved against us, but I still like Xiaonan here.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Marcos Rogerio de Lima -145 vs Ben Sosoli +135

  • De Lima is a tricky fighter. He is tough as nails, but also quite vulnerable.
  • He has done the classic 1 up and 1 down which is indicative of a fighter that can beat the bottom half, but not the top.
  • Unless Sosoli out-toughs him and Marcos ties, the power and skills lies with the Brazilian.
  • The line moved, but has settled roughly where it started.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Sosoli is tough, but De Lima straight cracks with his hands and legs.
  • Look for Rogerio to batter him with low kicks and then unload with combos as Ben slows.
  • Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Magomed Mustafaev -135 vs Brad Riddell +126

  • The line movement has to be addressed first.
  • Mustafaev opened at -425 and dropped like a stone? Why?
  • I feel like Riddell is decent, but Mustafaev is more well-rounded and tested.
  • Riddell is home which will help, but Mustafaev gets it done with a combo of unorthodox striking and some possible top time.
  • Value dictates a Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.
  • I need to get back on track so the prop plays will be far and few between on this card.

DK Lineup:

  • 4 UFC wins, 4 UFC stoppages.
  • Riddell’s striking D isn’t amazing so he will be open to take some damage
  • Back the Russian to finish.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Kevin Aguilar -108 vs Zubaira Tukhugov +100

  • This is a near pick’em fight which is accurate.
  • I haven’t been impressed with Tukhugov while Aguilar is coming off an underwhelming performance after a strong start in the UFC.
  • Aguilar needs to defend TDs and throw volume- that is his normal approach.
  • Zubaira isn’t active enough and only wins with 5-6 TDs and some prolonged top control.
  • Still could be close.
  • Strong Bronze Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Josh Culibao +185 vs Jalin Turner -200

  • The mounting number of Turner knockout losses and his underwhelming performance last time out makes this an easy pass.
  • I still think Turner wins this, but there are other options here.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section

DK Lineup:

  • Turner does have power and length and is fighting a late replacement Featherweight.
  • I opted to slide Jalin and Hooker into the lineup over Aguilar and Matthews.
  • I think if Turner fights to his potential he can finish this fight.
  • Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Jake Matthews -200 vs Emil Meek +187

  • Matthews needs to go back to his wrestling here.
  • Meek can simply not stay vertical and while he is strong and a good finisher, he just can stay in a position to deploy it.
  • I like Matthews to grind him out here and get the nod via decision or sub.
  • Decent price.
  • Silver play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • See the Turner DK breakdown.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Song Kenan -195 vs Callan Potter +180

  • Potter is coming off a pretty solid performance, but there were some contributing factors for his opponent too.
  • Song is a pretty solid technical striker and has finishing power which should test the shaky durability of his opponent.
  • Song just has too many ways to win this fight and the line moved in our favour.
  • Silver play for Song.

Prop Bet:

  • Song Kenan to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +125
  • Potter has been stopped in all 8 of his losses and Song has finishing power.
  • I like Potter to come out aggressive and get cracked by the more technical striker.

DK Lineup:

  • Song has stopping power, but he is too expensive for our plan.
  • No Play.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Kai Kara-France -250 vs Tyson Nam +230

  • We’ve got some movement from Kara-France here as he was originally in the mid -300 range.
  • Nam’s style is not suited to win at this level and unless he clips Kai, he will struggle here.
  • Fighting in NZ, you would expect KKF to get a favourable matchup and he has.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Kai Kara-France to Win by Decision -105
  • Kai hits pretty hard, but Nam is pretty durable and should be able to send this fight the distance.
  • With Nam’s .500 record in a decision, I like our chances if they go the distance.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Angela Hill -170 vs Loma Lookboonmee +162

  • Hill is awesome for taking this fight on short notice and fighting so frequently, but it could come back to haunt her.
  • She is facing a quick turn around, short notice, and a big trip all to face an opponent she has limited knowledge of.
  • Loma is undersized, but her speed and sharp striking technique will give Hall problems
  • I think Lookboonmee is being undervalued here, but she is still pretty new.
  • Bronze Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • I have her in my lineup because she is cheap allows us to add almost anyone we want.
  • She is also going to land a decent amount of volume and stands a good chance of winning on the cards.
  • Add her.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Maki Pitolo +123 vs Takashi Sato -125– CANCELLED

  • Coming Soon…

Prop Bet:

  • Coming Soon…

DK Lineup:

  • Coming Soon…

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Priscila Cachoeira +175 vs Shana Dobson -160

  • Cachoeira’s resume makes it difficult to see why she is still on the roster- 0-3 and a failed drug test.
  • Dobson hasn’t exactly been the model of consistency either, but she is the better fighter based on the Brazilian’s deficiency

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Confidence List

1. Yan Xiaonan -225

2. Jake Matthews -200

3. Michal Oleksiejczuk -120

4. Magomed Mustafaev -135

5. Jalin Turner -200

====================

6. Dan Hooker -145

7. Kai Kara-France -250

8. Song Kenan -195

9. Marcos Rogerio de Lima -145

10. Loma Lookboonmee +162

11. Shana Dobson -160

12. Kevin Aguilar -108

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Michal Oleksiejczuk -120

2. Magomed Mustafaev -135

3. Loma Lookboonmee +162

4. Dan Hooker -145

5. Marcos Rogerio de Lima -145

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

EPU Candidate(s)

1. Priscila Cachoeira/Shana Dobson

I will pass here, Cachoeira is pretty durable and there is such a limited sample size that it is hard to feel confident either way.

2. Maki Pitolo/Takashi Sato– CANCELLED

I would have looked at this fight as the more likely of the 2 to hit the Under. Obviously, not an option now.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
5
6
7
1 of 7 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
72529%

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

FPO Candidate

1. Josh Culibao/Jalin Turner

I will leave this one alone, we know so little about Culibao it is hard to get a read on how he will fair against a larger/longer man on short notice.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
53260%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
32167%

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Paul Felder +135 vs Dan Hooker -145

2. Jimmy Crute +112 vs Michal Oleksiejczuk -120

3. Marcos Rogerio de Lima -145 vs Ben Sosoli +135

4. Magomed Mustafaev -135 vs Brad Riddell +126

5. Kevin Aguilar -108 vs Zubaira Tukhugov +100

6. Priscila Cachoeira +175 vs Shana Dobson -160

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
40192148%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
40192148%

 

 

 

 

Attachment

Scott Johnson

scott

Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel's popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.

%d bloggers like this: