When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Montana De La Rosa
to Win
-170
+ Corey Anderson
to Win
-210
ODDS:
+134
BET:
10u
RETURN:
23.45u
BET #2
+ Yancy Medeiros
to Win
+105
ODDS:
+105
BET:
6u
RETURN:
12.3u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Diego Sanchez
to Win
+145
ODDS:
+145
BET:
5u
RETURN:
12.25u
BET #2
+ Rogerio Bontorin
to Win
+135
+ Merab Dvalishvili
to Win
-160
ODDS:
+282
BET:
5u
RETURN:
19.09u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Jim Miller
to Win
+126
ODDS:
+126
BET:
4u
RETURN:
9.04
BET #2
+ John Dodson
to Win
+135
ODDS:
+135
BET:
4u
RETURN:
9.4u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Montana De La Rosa
to Win by Sub
+410
ODDS:
+410
BET:
3u
RETURN:
15.3u
BET #2
+ Rogerio Bontorin
to Win By Decision
+255
+ Merab Dvalishvili
to Win by Decision
+110
ODDS:
+646
BET:
3u
RETURN:
22.37u
BET #3
+ Jim Miller
to Win by Submission
+400
ODDS:
+400
BET:
3u
RETURN:
15u
BET #4
+ Devin Clark
to Win By Decision
-110
+ Macy Chiasson
to Win by TKO/KO
+115
ODDS:
+310
BET:
3u
RETURN:
12.31u
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Montana De La Rosa
to Win
-170
+ Corey Anderson
to Win
-210
+ Yancy Medeiros
to Win
+105
ODDS:
+381
BET:
10u
RETURN:
48.06u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Rogerio Bontorin
to Win
+135
+ Merab Dvalishvili
to Win
-160
+ Diego Sanchez
to Win
+145
ODDS:
+836
BET:
8u
RETURN:
74.85
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Jim Miller
to Win
+126
+ John Dodson
to Win
+135
+ Montana De La Rosa
to Win
-170
ODDS:
+744
BET:
7u
RETURN:
59.05u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Montana De La Rosa
to Win by Sub
+410
+ Jim Miller
to Win by Sub
+400
ODDS:
+2450
BET:
4u
RETURN:
102u
BET #2
+ Devin Clark
to Win By Decision
-110
+ Macy Chiasson
to Win by TKO/KO
+115
+ Yancy Medeiros
to Win
+105
ODDS:
+741
BET:
5u
RETURN:
42.07u
BET #3
+ Rogerio Bontorin
to Win By Decision
+255
+ Merab Dvalishvili
to Win by Decision
+110
+ John Dodson
to Win
+135
ODDS:
+1652
BET:
5u
RETURN:
87.6u
BET #1
+ Rogerio Bontorin
to Win
+135
+ Diego Sanchez
to Win
+145
+ Jim Miller
to Win
+126
ODDS:
+1201
BET:
5u
RETURN:
65.06u
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
+ Diego Sanchez
$7700
+ Jim Miller
$8000
+ Merab Dvalishvili
$8400
+ Macy Chiasson
$9400
+ Corey Anderson
$8900
+ John Dodson
$7600
Spares
+ Montana De La Rosa
$8700
+
+
+
Betting Breakdowns
Corey Anderson -210 vs Jan Blachowicz +175
For the first bout Anderson was a slight dog, but fought a near-perfect fight for the win (I got that one right- those were the days 😉
The line was much closer with Anderson around -145 at the open, but he dropped to nearly -200 inside the first couple of days
Both men have improved, but unless Jan can score the stoppage, which is rare for him- Anderson will use his cardio and wrestling to outwork for the duration.
Gold play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
I have Anderson in my lineup. He could score a stoppage, he could put up some decent volume, and hid takedown stats should be between 4 and 6 which will produce points. Maybe a combination of all of them. Add him.
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Michel Pereira -163 vs Diego Sanchez +145
I’m a little shocked that Pereira is a dog considering how poorly he performed in his last fight.
His style is not built for this level of competition…..if he can’t get the finish.
The line has had almost no movement which tells us that bettors are split.
Diego is a tough out with good gas tank and grinding top game.
Silver play for Sanchez.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Sanchez has shown he can finish from top position and if Michel gets tired under the pressure and conditions, he could be put away. If not, Diego lands takedowns and volume at a cheap price.
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Mara Romero Borella +160 vs Montana De La Rosa -170
Borella quit in her last fight, took a couple of flush shots and went down when she was ahead. Conversely, DLR took a beating and went for a full 15-minutes.
We are getting some value here as the line was over the -215.
Borella has relied on takedowns in each of her fights and even then they are close, that won’t be an option here against a better wrestler/ grappler.
Love De La Rosa here!
Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
Montana De La Rosa to Win by Submission +410
This is a must-play considering the odds and that all 3 of Montana’s UFC wins have come by sub.
Montana will get to Borella’s back and lock up an RNC or catch her in an armbar/triangle following a sloppy TD.
DK Lineup:
Montana is fighter you could easily sub in and out with Anderson. I like Corey because of the 5-rounds, but I would use them almost evenly across the boar.
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Kazula Vargas +225 vs Brok Weaver -275
This is an easy pass for me considering the other options we have on the card.
A debuting fighter against a sophomore- no thank you.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
Brok Weaver to Win Inside the Distance +295
Weaver doesn’t have great finishing numbers and Vargas has only been stopped once in his career.
All that considered, Weaver’s pressure-based style, wrestling, and Vargas’s vulnerability to TDD are major keys to a finish.
DK Lineup:
I like Weaver to get the stoppage, but he is a little too expensive at this point.
Considering his price and lack of overall finishes, it is encouraging for the stoppage prop.
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Rogerio Bontorin +135 vs Ray Borg -141
Borg missed weight…again. He is 2-1 when missing weight, dropping his last fight.
Both of his early wins came against fighters with minimal success in the Octagon.
Bontorin appears to have the grappling to match/nullify/capitalize on Borg.
If any of those scenarios play out, add in Rogerio’s more active striking attack and he is in a good spot here.
Ray talked about retiring if he missed weight again. That type of distraction could impact his performance.
Line movement has been minimal.
Bontorin is a strong Silver play.
Prop Bet:
Rogerio Bontorin to Win By Decision +255
Borg is a tough out and this should be a close fight.
We most likely won’t see a sub either way, and knockout is unlikely too.
Take it on the cards.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Yancy Medeiros +105 vs Lando Vannata -110
This should be a pretty fun fight regardless of what happens.
Medeiros is more active on the feet and has had more success at this level.
Vannata is more durable and has fought more recently.
I still like Yancy to outwork him if he doesn’t get knocked out.
Yancy was nearly at -200 earlier in the week, so we are getting a solid deal.
I’m going all in here.
Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Vannata is pretty durable.
Pass.
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Tim Means -305 vs Daniel Rodriguez +255
This is an easy pass as well.
Late notice replacement, but a veteran fighter moving up a division.
Sometimes Means can make fights closer than needed.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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John Dodson +135 vs Nathaniel Wood -145
Dodson has been defeated by top-level competition- where does Wood fight into the equation.
With Dodson’s stellar TDD and ability to avoid strikes, that will limit Wood’s ability to find success.
The Brit needs to bring pressure which he will, but I think Dodson capitalizes on his willingness to get hit.
Wood’s chin is far from uncrackable.
Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Dodson is affordable and has stopping power.
Wood has been knocked out once and hurt in a couple of UFC bouts.
Dodson could find a return to his finishing ways and if he does he is a bargain.
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Scott Holtzman -132 vs Jim Miller +126
This should be a good fight.
Miller has the skill set to capitalize on the grappling issues that have plagued Holtzman.
Jim has shown he beats pretty much anyone not ranked in the top 15 of the division.
Close fight on the feet, but Miller will capitalize on the mat.
He was a slight favourite (-125) when the line opened.
Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
Jim Miller to Win by Submission +400
Miller has scored subs in each of his last 3 wins.
If he can take Holtzman down, look for him to get to his back and set up a sub.
The line is solid- make an investment.
DK Lineup:
As previously mentioned, Miller is a finisher on the mat and at $8000 he is a solid add.
Add him.
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Devin Clark -400 vs Dequan Townsend +300
No play here. Not worth the risk considering Townsend has more avenues to victory than the line suggests.
Prop Bet:
Devin Clark to Win by Decision -110
This isn’t flashy, but it is worth a look.
Townsend is not easy to finish and while Clark has some power he can be a grinder.
Look for Clark to exploit his TDD and hold clinch and top position for the duration of the fight.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Merab Dvalishvili -160 vs Casey Kenney +160
Do you pick the fighter that lands a lot of takedowns, but has lost a couple of those fights?
Or do you pick the fighter that has been taken down a lot, but he has found a way to win?
I think Kenney’s success runs out eventually, especially against the volume of Merab.
We were nearly at even which I understand. I consider this fight for a Gold play, but knocked it down one notch.
Silver play.
Prop Bet:
Merab Dvalishvili to Win by Decision +110
Merab hasn’t proven himself to be a finisher at this level, and these two match up fairly evenly.
Embrace the grind that will take the full 15-minutes.
DK Lineup:
While he isn’t a finisher he has scored in the 70s in his 2 defeats and 90s in his 2 wins.
Takedowns, a lot of takedowns is his path to point product and Kenney can be taken down.
Add him.
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Macy Chiasson -725 vs Shanna Young +600
Chiasson laid an egg last time out. She should win but, nothing worth betting SU.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario section.
DK Lineup:
When Chiasson wins, it is usually by finish.
I think she is motivated here and Young is hittable and overmatched physically.
Add her.
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Mark De La Rosa +215 vs Raulian Paiva -227
Paiva is 0-2 in the UFC after a couple of unfortunate scenarios.
De La Rosa could grind this one out if he can take Paiva down- that is a big if.
I will consider Paiva as an addon in the Bronze section or a No Play.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel's popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.
C. Daniel Cormier
#1 Jon Jones
