UFC Fight Night 167: Anderson vs Blachowicz 2 | Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Night 167: Anderson vs Blachowicz 2 | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Montana De La Rosa  to Win -170
+ Corey Anderson  to Win -210
ODDS: +134
BET: 10u
RETURN: 23.45u

 

BET #2
+ Yancy Medeiros  to Win +105
ODDS: +105
BET: 6u
RETURN: 12.3u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Diego Sanchez  to Win +145
ODDS: +145
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12.25u

 

BET #2
+ Rogerio Bontorin  to Win +135
+ Merab Dvalishvili  to Win -160
ODDS: +282
BET: 5u
RETURN: 19.09u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Jim Miller  to Win +126
ODDS: +126
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9.04

 

BET #2
+ John Dodson  to Win +135
ODDS: +135
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9.4u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Montana De La Rosa  to Win by Sub +410
ODDS: +410
BET: 3u
RETURN: 15.3u

 

BET #2
+ Rogerio Bontorin  to Win By Decision +255
+ Merab Dvalishvili   to Win by Decision +110
ODDS: +646
BET: 3u
RETURN: 22.37u

 

BET #3
+ Jim Miller  to Win by Submission +400
ODDS: +400
BET: 3u
RETURN: 15u

BET #4
+ Devin Clark  to Win By Decision -110
+ Macy Chiasson  to Win by TKO/KO +115
ODDS: +310
BET: 3u
RETURN: 12.31u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Montana De La Rosa  to Win -170
+ Corey Anderson  to Win -210
+ Yancy Medeiros  to Win +105
ODDS: +381
BET: 10u
RETURN: 48.06u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Rogerio Bontorin  to Win +135
+ Merab Dvalishvili  to Win -160
+ Diego Sanchez  to Win +145
ODDS: +836
BET: 8u
RETURN: 74.85

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Jim Miller  to Win +126
+ John Dodson  to Win +135
+ Montana De La Rosa  to Win -170
ODDS: +744
BET: 7u
RETURN: 59.05u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Montana De La Rosa  to Win by Sub +410
+ Jim Miller  to Win by Sub +400
ODDS: +2450
BET: 4u
RETURN: 102u

 

BET #2
+ Devin Clark  to Win By Decision -110
+ Macy Chiasson  to Win by TKO/KO +115
+ Yancy Medeiros  to Win +105
ODDS: +741
BET: 5u
RETURN: 42.07u

 

BET #3
+ Rogerio Bontorin  to Win By Decision +255
+ Merab Dvalishvili   to Win by Decision +110
+ John Dodson  to Win +135
ODDS: +1652
BET: 5u
RETURN: 87.6u

 

BET #1
+ Rogerio Bontorin  to Win +135
+ Diego Sanchez  to Win +145
+ Jim Miller  to Win +126
ODDS: +1201
BET: 5u
RETURN: 65.06u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Diego Sanchez $7700
+ Jim Miller $8000
+ Merab Dvalishvili $8400
+ Macy Chiasson $9400
+ Corey Anderson  $8900
+ John Dodson  $7600

Spares

+ Montana De La Rosa $8700
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Corey Anderson -210 vs Jan Blachowicz +175

  • For the first bout Anderson was a slight dog, but fought a near-perfect fight for the win (I got that one right- those were the days 😉
  • The line was much closer with Anderson around -145 at the open, but he dropped to nearly -200 inside the first couple of days
  • Both men have improved, but unless Jan can score the stoppage, which is rare for him- Anderson will use his cardio and wrestling to outwork for the duration.
  • Gold play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • I have Anderson in my lineup. He could score a stoppage, he could put up some decent volume, and hid takedown stats should be between 4 and 6 which will produce points. Maybe a combination of all of them. Add him.

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Michel Pereira -163 vs Diego Sanchez +145

  • I’m a little shocked that Pereira is a dog considering how poorly he performed in his last fight.
  • His style is not built for this level of competition…..if he can’t get the finish.
  • The line has had almost no movement which tells us that bettors are split.
  • Diego is a tough out with good gas tank and grinding top game.
  • Silver play for Sanchez.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Sanchez has shown he can finish from top position and if Michel gets tired under the pressure and conditions, he could be put away. If not, Diego lands takedowns and volume at a cheap price.

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Mara Romero Borella +160 vs Montana De La Rosa -170

  • Borella quit in her last fight, took a couple of flush shots and went down when she was ahead. Conversely, DLR took a beating and went for a full 15-minutes.
  • We are getting some value here as the line was over the -215.
  • Borella has relied on takedowns in each of her fights and even then they are close, that won’t be an option here against a better wrestler/ grappler.
  • Love De La Rosa here!
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Montana De La Rosa to Win by Submission +410
  • This is a must-play considering the odds and that all 3 of Montana’s UFC wins have come by sub.
  • Montana will get to Borella’s back and lock up an RNC or catch her in an armbar/triangle following a sloppy TD.

DK Lineup:

  • Montana is fighter you could easily sub in and out with Anderson. I like Corey because of the 5-rounds, but I would use them almost evenly across the boar.

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Kazula Vargas +225 vs Brok Weaver -275

  • This is an easy pass for me considering the other options we have on the card.
  • A debuting fighter against a sophomore- no thank you.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Brok Weaver to Win Inside the Distance +295
  • Weaver doesn’t have great finishing numbers and Vargas has only been stopped once in his career.
  • All that considered, Weaver’s pressure-based style, wrestling, and Vargas’s vulnerability to TDD are major keys to a finish.

DK Lineup:

  • I like Weaver to get the stoppage, but he is a little too expensive at this point.
  • Considering his price and lack of overall finishes, it is encouraging for the stoppage prop.

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Rogerio Bontorin +135 vs Ray Borg -141

  • Borg missed weight…again. He is 2-1 when missing weight, dropping his last fight.
  • Both of his early wins came against fighters with minimal success in the Octagon.
  • Bontorin appears to have the grappling to match/nullify/capitalize on Borg.
  • If any of those scenarios play out, add in Rogerio’s more active striking attack and he is in a good spot here.
  • Ray talked about retiring if he missed weight again. That type of distraction could impact his performance.
  • Line movement has been minimal.
  • Bontorin is a strong Silver play.

Prop Bet:

  • Rogerio Bontorin to Win By Decision +255
  • Borg is a tough out and this should be a close fight.
  • We most likely won’t see a sub either way, and knockout is unlikely too.
  • Take it on the cards.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Yancy Medeiros +105 vs Lando Vannata -110

  • This should be a pretty fun fight regardless of what happens.
  • Medeiros is more active on the feet and has had more success at this level.
  • Vannata is more durable and has fought more recently.
  • I still like Yancy to outwork him if he doesn’t get knocked out.
  • Yancy was nearly at -200 earlier in the week, so we are getting a solid deal.
  • I’m going all in here.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Vannata is pretty durable.
  • Pass.

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Tim Means -305 vs Daniel Rodriguez +255

  • This is an easy pass as well.
  • Late notice replacement, but a veteran fighter moving up a division.
  • Sometimes Means can make fights closer than needed.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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John Dodson +135 vs Nathaniel Wood -145

  • Dodson has been defeated by top-level competition- where does Wood fight into the equation.
  • With Dodson’s stellar TDD and ability to avoid strikes, that will limit Wood’s ability to find success.
  • The Brit needs to bring pressure which he will, but I think Dodson capitalizes on his willingness to get hit.
  • Wood’s chin is far from uncrackable.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Dodson is affordable and has stopping power.
  • Wood has been knocked out once and hurt in a couple of UFC bouts.
  • Dodson could find a return to his finishing ways and if he does he is a bargain.

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Scott Holtzman -132 vs Jim Miller +126

  • This should be a good fight.
  • Miller has the skill set to capitalize on the grappling issues that have plagued Holtzman.
  • Jim has shown he beats pretty much anyone not ranked in the top 15 of the division.
  • Close fight on the feet, but Miller will capitalize on the mat.
  • He was a slight favourite (-125) when the line opened.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • Jim Miller to Win by Submission +400
  • Miller has scored subs in each of his last 3 wins.
  • If he can take Holtzman down, look for him to get to his back and set up a sub.
  • The line is solid- make an investment.

DK Lineup:

  • As previously mentioned, Miller is a finisher on the mat and at $8000 he is a solid add.
  • Add him.

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Devin Clark -400 vs Dequan Townsend +300

  • No play here. Not worth the risk considering Townsend has more avenues to victory than the line suggests.

Prop Bet:

  • Devin Clark to Win by Decision -110
  • This isn’t flashy, but it is worth a look.
  • Townsend is not easy to finish and while Clark has some power he can be a grinder.
  • Look for Clark to exploit his TDD and hold clinch and top position for the duration of the fight.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Merab Dvalishvili -160 vs Casey Kenney +160

  • Do you pick the fighter that lands a lot of takedowns, but has lost a couple of those fights?
  • Or do you pick the fighter that has been taken down a lot, but he has found a way to win?
  • I think Kenney’s success runs out eventually, especially against the volume of Merab.
  • We were nearly at even which I understand. I consider this fight for a Gold play, but knocked it down one notch.
  • Silver play.

Prop Bet:

  • Merab Dvalishvili to Win by Decision +110
  • Merab hasn’t proven himself to be a finisher at this level, and these two match up fairly evenly.
  • Embrace the grind that will take the full 15-minutes.

DK Lineup:

  • While he isn’t a finisher he has scored in the 70s in his 2 defeats and 90s in his 2 wins.
  • Takedowns, a lot of takedowns is his path to point product and Kenney can be taken down.
  • Add him.

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Macy Chiasson -725 vs Shanna Young +600

  • Chiasson laid an egg last time out. She should win but, nothing worth betting SU.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario section.

DK Lineup:

  • When Chiasson wins, it is usually by finish.
  • I think she is motivated here and Young is hittable and overmatched physically.
  • Add her.

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Mark De La Rosa +215 vs Raulian Paiva -227

  • Paiva is 0-2 in the UFC after a couple of unfortunate scenarios.
  • De La Rosa could grind this one out if he can take Paiva down- that is a big if.
  • I will consider Paiva as an addon in the Bronze section or a No Play.
  • This will be a fun fight. Tread carefully.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Confidence List

1. Macy Chiasson -725

2. Montana De La Rosa -170

3. Corey Anderson -210

4. Devin Clark -400

5. Yancy Medeiros +105

====================

6. Tim Means -305

7. Brok Weaver -275

8. Diego Sanchez +145

9. Rogerio Bontorin +135

10. Merab Dvalishvili -160

11. Raulian Paiva -227

12. Jim Miller +126

13. John Dodson +135

 

Value Bet List

1. Diego Sanchez +145

2. Rogerio Bontorin +135

3. Yancy Medeiros +105

4. Jim Miller +126

5. John Dodson +135

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Macy Chiasson to Win by TKO/KO +115

Young is just too hittable for Chiasson not to get her out of there. My biggest concern here is that we can a sub out of Chiasson to thwart this play.

2. Mark De La Rosa/Raulian Paiva

This is a No play. I expect a decision, but nothing certain here.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
5
6
7
1 of 7 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
72529%

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FPO Candidate

1. Tim Means vs Daniel Rodriguez

I considered backing a Means decision win, but I think this is better left alone considering the uncertainty surrounding Rodriguez.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
53260%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
32167%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Michel Pereira -163 vs Diego Sanchez +145

2. Rogerio Bontorin +135 vs Ray Borg -141

3. Yancy Medeiros +105 vs Lando Vannata -110

4. John Dodson +135 vs Nathaniel Wood -145

5. Scott Holtzman -132 vs Jim Miller +126

6. Merab Dvalishvili -160 vs Casey Kenney +160

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
40192148%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
40192148%

 

 

 

 

Scott Johnson

scott

Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel's popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.

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