When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Angela Hill
to Win
-170
+ Alex Perez
to Win
-250
ODDS:
+122
BET:
8u
RETURN:
17.79u
BET #2
+ Lucie Pudilova
to Win
-160
ODDS:
-160
BET:
5u
RETURN:
8.13u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Nik Lentz
to Win
+226
ODDS:
+226
BET:
4u
RETURN:
13.04u
BET #2
+ Michael Chiesa
to Win
+226
ODDS:
+226
BET:
4u
RETURN:
13.04u
BET #3
+ Jamahal Hill
to Win
-120
ODDS:
-120
BET:
3u
RETURN:
5.5u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Junior Dos Santos
to Win
+216
ODDS:
+216
BET:
4u
RETURN:
12.64u
BET #2
+ Tony Gravely
to Win
-107
+ Sara McMann
to Win
-147
ODDS:
+225
BET:
4u
RETURN:
13u
BET #3
+ Herbert Burns
to Win
+103
ODDS:
+103
BET:
3u
RETURN:
6.09u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Alex Perez
to Win Inside the Distance
+180
+ Montel Jackson
to Win Inside the Distance
+105
ODDS:
+474
BET:
3u
RETURN:
17.22u
BET #2
+ Bevon Lewis
to Win by Decision
+175
+ Herbert Burns
to Win by Sub
+170
ODDS:
+643
BET:
3u
RETURN:
22.28u
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Angela Hill
to Win
-170
+ Alex Perez
to Win
-250
+ Lucie Pudilova
to Win
-160
ODDS:
+261
BET:
10u
RETURN:
36.13u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Nik Lentz
to Win
+226
+ Jamahal Hill
to Win
-120
ODDS:
+498
BET:
7u
RETURN:
41.84u
BET #2
+ Michael Chiesa
to Win
+226
+ Jamahal Hill
to Win
-120
ODDS:
+498
BET:
7u
RETURN:
41.84u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Tony Gravely
to Win
-107
+ Sara McMann
to Win
-147
+ Junior Dos Santos
to Win
+216
ODDS:
+927
BET:
5u
RETURN:
51.36u
BET #2
+ Tony Gravely
to Win
-107
+ Sara McMann
to Win
-147
+ Herbert Burns
to Win
+103
ODDS:
+560
BET:
5u
RETURN:
32.99u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Nik Lentz
to Win
+226
+ Jamahal Hill
to Win
-120
+ Michael Chiesa
to Win
+226
ODDS:
+1848
BET:
4u
RETURN:
77.94u
BET #2
+ Alex Perez
to Win Inside the Distance
+180
+ Angela Hill
to Win
-170
+ Montel Jackson
to Win Inside the Distance
+105
ODDS:
+812
BET:
5u
RETURN:
45.58u
BET #3
+ Bevon Lewis
to Win by Decision
+175
+ Herbert Burns
to Win by Sub
+170
+ Michael Chiesa
to Win
+226
ODDS:
+2321
BET:
5u
RETURN:
121.03u
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
+ Junior Dos Santos
$7200
+ Nik Lentz
$7000
+ Montel Jackson
$9400
+ Herbert Burns
$7900
+ Alex Perez
$9100
+ Angela Hill
$8600
Spares
+
+
+
+
Betting Breakdowns
Curtis Blaydes -225 vs Junior Dos Santos +216
Blaydes is the young up and comer and JDS the former champion and long-time contender. That usually gives us a clear indication of who is getting their hand raised- but Heavyweight is different. Blaydes has a solid set of tools, but JDS has made a career of negating that style of offense. If JDS can force Blaydes away from his wrestling the advantage in this fight shift.
Is JDS the fighter he used to be? No- but I still like him here to keep this fight standing against a fighter who can be hurt (Hunt, Ngannou).
I’m not going to go all-in here, but I still like the veteran dog who’s value has improved over the week- Bronze play for Junior.
Prop Bet:
I will leave this one alone. I thought about a decision win, as I think JDS can point his way to a win on the cards- but lets keep it simple
DK Lineup:
JDS does get the call to the lineup here. Over his last 6 fights, 4 have produced 85+ points and he has gone over the century mark on 3 occasions. He can finish or he can go 5 rounds and use volume- maybe both. Add him.
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Michael Chiesa +226 vs Rafael dos Anjos -253
Back to back dogs to end the night? Fight Nights are usually full of upsets and I like the style matchup here.
Chiesa’s length and better-suited frame at WW are the keys here. RDA will have his moments, but I believe that Chiesa can smother him on the cage and grind this one out for at least 2 rounds.
RDA has not looked that great in any of his recent outings and was saved by Lee gassing. Chiesa steps up.
The line opened around +165 so we are getting a good return here.
Chiesa is a key Silver play here.
Prop Bet:
No pro bet here either. I want the win any way I can get it.
DK Lineup:
This will be a grind. Pass.
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Jordan Espinosa +231 vs Alex Perez -250
I nailed Schnell over Espinosa and I like Perez here too. Perez’s wrestling will prevent Espinosa from finding any success on the mat and unless Alex’s durability is a bigger issue than we realize, he should be able to outslug the less aggressive striker.
We have got a little bit of movement here, mainly in a our favour- but nothing crazy.
Perez is a solid addon for the Gold Section, especially as the line moves further in our favour.
Prop Bet:
Alex Perez to Win Inside the Distance +180
This is a solid option and while the knockout finish would seem like the better option based on Perez, Espinosa’s issue with submission defense leaves him vulnerable on the mat.
Let’s keep both on the table here.
DK Lineup:
Perez scored 140+ points in under 1 round against Torres- he could do the same here.
In victory, he has secured 90+ on 3 occasions and 70+ twice more.
Add him.
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Hannah Cifers +164 vs Angela Hill -170
Hill is a tough out that is going to give the top contenders a good fight. The bottom/ middle of the division a tough scrap. And rising prospects a test to determine where they fit.
Cifers doesn’t appear to offer the tools to keep up with Hill or slow here down. Angela will outwork her for the duration it what should be a competitive, but decisive fight.
Hiller opened at nearly even and the line movement has moved against us, but I am ok with that.
Gold Play for Overkill Hill.
Prop Bet:
I got burned with a prop bet on Hill by decision last time out. I will stay away from this.
DK Lineup:
Hill produces points. If she finishes, that is a bonus. Cifers should be there to hit and Hill will most likely land between 90 and 120 significant strikes. A takedown or 2 could also tack on a couple of key points.
Add her.
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Jamahal Hill -120 vs Darko Stosic +110
A near pick’em fight, the debuting Hill is now a slight favourite.
He impressed me in his Contender’s bout with his physical gifts, his technical ability, and his calm/ veteran-like demeanor. Stosic is not an easy debut, but it is certainly winnable is Hill is not overwhelmed by the spotlight.
Hill would be a Gold play in this bout if he wasn’t debuting.
Silver Play for Jamahal.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Bevon Lewis -350 vs Dequan Townsend +363
Lewis has not been able to close the show in recent outings, so we can’t lay big money or any money on his straight up.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Arnold Allen -250 vs Nik Lentz +226
Ruff, Ruff, Ruff.
I have been looking for Allen’s first UFCloss for a while. I think Lentz stands a very good chance of delivering. Allen has struggled with wrestling/takedown based fighters and Lentz is arguably the best and most consistent wrestler he has faced.
Lentz dominated with his wrestling at 145 against everyone but Chad Mendes (better wrestler) and Charles Oliveria (submission ace)- Arnold is neither of those.
If Lentz can ground Holtzman at LW he can do the same to Arnold at FW.
Silver play for Lentz.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Lentz is routinely underestimated and he is here again at a very affordable $7000.
His persistent takedown attack will produce points.
Add him.
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Justine Kish +148 vs Lucie Pudilova -160
I am routinely reminded by one of my more dedicated followers that WMMA fights are difficult to bet on. He is right, but I digress.
Kish has is pretty rough and tends to fight close fights. The move to 125 and layoff are not positives scenarios for here.
Pudilova is aggressive and seems to be right there in all of her bouts. Her volume and ability to more consistently engage are the keys to her success.
Pudilova outworks here.
Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
I was leaning towards a Decision win, but the layoff mixed with a heavy pace could be too much for Kish. Pass.
DK Lineup:
I considered Pudilova as an option, but she is a little expensive for my liking. She could win and only scored 55-65 points which is not enough for the cost.
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Felipe Colares +525 vs Montel Jackson -545
This is an easy pass for me. You should too.
Prop Bet:
Montel Jackson to Win Inside the Distance +105
Jackson is the better wrestler and the far better striker. I consider the knockout prop, but I feel like Colares gives up enough takedowns that Jackson could find his way to a choke.
The difference between the Finish and the Knockout props is enough to keep everything on the table.
DK Lineup:
Jackson has scored 91 and 95 points in each of his last 2 fights. One fight was quick and one fight was not. He could do either here.
Add him.
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Lina Lansberg +143 vs Sara McMann -147
Another tough WMMA fight to call, but I like McMann here. Yes, she has struggled at times with pressure and/or making good choices.
Her wrestling is the key- which is not groundbreaking. Lansberg struggles with takedown oriented fighters (has lost to lesser wrestlers). She doesn’t offer the submission game to threaten McMann and will need to find a way to stay vertical to be able to hurt her on the feet.
McMann was the dog which would have been better, but I still like the return here.
The layoff prevents me from getting in too deep- Bronze Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Brett Johns -101 vs Tony Gravely -107
This is a darn close fight. My first impression was that Gravely routinely finds himself in some back and forth grappling exchanges- that is a problem. The more I watched, the more he came out on the better end of it. That is key here.
Johns is not the same fighter when he can’t routinely win the TD battle. His volume is lower than most people realize and the lack of TDs makes him too 1-dimensional.
Add in the layoff and potential for ring rusts and Johns might be limited here.
Bronze play for Gravely in a close fight.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Herbert Burns +103 vs Nate Landwehr -110
We get a pair of debuting fighters from other respectable organizations.
I don’t like how Burns will give up position- but he is damn dangerous on the mat. Landwehr will eventually get drawn into making a mistake.
There is also something to be said for having a brother already in the UFC- Gilbert will have him prepped and ready.
Bronze play for the submission ace.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
I expect that if Burns wins it will be by submission. Add him.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
I think this fight goes the distance so a bet on Gravely by decision could be in order, but instead, I will layoff and look for the win any way we can get it.
2. Herbert Burns to Win by Submission +170
Burns has won 7 of his 9 victories by submission and I have him winning this fight- it is pretty straight forward. Take Burns by sub for plus money.
EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47
24
23
51%
2016 Picks
55
31
24
56%
2017 Picks
47
20
27
43%
2018 Picks
42
25
17
60%
2019 Picks
32
13
19
41%
2020 Picks
23
8
15
35%
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FPO Candidate
1. Bevon Lewis to Win by Decision +175
Townsend is coming off a knockout loss- the first of his career. He is a tough out who has been around for a while. I think Lewis beats him and I will take this fight going the distance with Lewis putting forth the most complete effort of his UFC tenure.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel's popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.
C. Daniel Cormier
#1 Jon Jones
