UFC Fight Night 166: Blaydes vs Dos Santos | Premium Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Night 166: Blaydes vs Dos Santos | Premium Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Angela Hill  to Win -170
+ Alex Perez  to Win -250
ODDS: +122
BET: 8u
RETURN: 17.79u

 

BET #2
+ Lucie Pudilova  to Win -160
ODDS: -160
BET: 5u
RETURN: 8.13u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Nik Lentz  to Win +226
ODDS: +226
BET: 4u
RETURN: 13.04u

 

BET #2
+ Michael Chiesa  to Win +226
ODDS: +226
BET: 4u
RETURN: 13.04u

 

BET #3
+ Jamahal Hill  to Win -120
ODDS: -120
BET: 3u
RETURN: 5.5u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Junior Dos Santos  to Win +216
ODDS: +216
BET: 4u
RETURN: 12.64u

 

BET #2
+ Tony Gravely  to Win -107
+ Sara McMann  to Win -147
ODDS: +225
BET: 4u
RETURN: 13u

 

BET #3
+ Herbert Burns to Win +103
ODDS: +103
BET: 3u
RETURN: 6.09u


Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Alex Perez  to Win Inside the Distance +180
+ Montel Jackson  to Win Inside the Distance +105
ODDS: +474
BET: 3u
RETURN: 17.22u

 

BET #2
+ Bevon Lewis  to Win by Decision +175
+ Herbert Burns  to Win by Sub +170
ODDS: +643
BET: 3u
RETURN: 22.28u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Angela Hill  to Win -170
+ Alex Perez  to Win -250
+ Lucie Pudilova  to Win -160
ODDS: +261
BET: 10u
RETURN: 36.13u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Nik Lentz  to Win +226
+ Jamahal Hill  to Win -120
ODDS: +498
BET: 7u
RETURN: 41.84u

 

BET #2
+ Michael Chiesa  to Win +226
+ Jamahal Hill  to Win -120
ODDS: +498
BET: 7u
RETURN: 41.84u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Tony Gravely  to Win -107
+ Sara McMann  to Win -147
+ Junior Dos Santos  to Win +216
ODDS: +927
BET: 5u
RETURN: 51.36u

 

BET #2
+ Tony Gravely  to Win -107
+ Sara McMann  to Win -147
+ Herbert Burns to Win +103
ODDS: +560
BET: 5u
RETURN: 32.99u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Nik Lentz  to Win +226
+ Jamahal Hill  to Win -120
+ Michael Chiesa  to Win +226
ODDS: +1848
BET: 4u
RETURN: 77.94u

 

BET #2
+ Alex Perez  to Win Inside the Distance +180
+ Angela Hill  to Win -170
+ Montel Jackson  to Win Inside the Distance +105
ODDS: +812
BET: 5u
RETURN: 45.58u

 

BET #3
+ Bevon Lewis  to Win by Decision +175
+ Herbert Burns  to Win by Sub +170
+ Michael Chiesa  to Win +226
ODDS: +2321
BET: 5u
RETURN: 121.03u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Junior Dos Santos $7200
+ Nik Lentz $7000
+ Montel Jackson  $9400
+ Herbert Burns $7900
+ Alex Perez $9100
+ Angela Hill $8600

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Curtis Blaydes -225 vs Junior Dos Santos +216

  • Blaydes is the young up and comer and JDS the former champion and long-time contender. That usually gives us a clear indication of who is getting their hand raised- but Heavyweight is different. Blaydes has a solid set of tools, but JDS has made a career of negating that style of offense. If JDS can force Blaydes away from his wrestling the advantage in this fight shift.
  • Is JDS the fighter he used to be? No- but I still like him here to keep this fight standing against a fighter who can be hurt (Hunt, Ngannou).
  • I’m not going to go all-in here, but I still like the veteran dog who’s value has improved over the week- Bronze play for Junior.

Prop Bet:

  • I will leave this one alone. I thought about a decision win, as I think JDS can point his way to a win on the cards- but lets keep it simple

DK Lineup:

  • JDS does get the call to the lineup here. Over his last 6 fights, 4 have produced 85+ points and he has gone over the century mark on 3 occasions. He can finish or he can go 5 rounds and use volume- maybe both. Add him.

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Michael Chiesa +226 vs Rafael dos Anjos -253

  • Back to back dogs to end the night? Fight Nights are usually full of upsets and I like the style matchup here.
  • Chiesa’s length and better-suited frame at WW are the keys here. RDA will have his moments, but I believe that Chiesa can smother him on the cage and grind this one out for at least 2 rounds.
  • RDA has not looked that great in any of his recent outings and was saved by Lee gassing. Chiesa steps up.
  • The line opened around +165 so we are getting a good return here.
  • Chiesa is a key Silver play here.

Prop Bet:

  • No pro bet here either. I want the win any way I can get it.

DK Lineup:

  • This will be a grind. Pass.

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Jordan Espinosa +231 vs Alex Perez -250

  • I nailed Schnell over Espinosa and I like Perez here too. Perez’s wrestling will prevent Espinosa from finding any success on the mat and unless Alex’s durability is a bigger issue than we realize, he should be able to outslug the less aggressive striker.
  • We have got a little bit of movement here, mainly in a our favour- but nothing crazy.
  • Perez is a solid addon for the Gold Section, especially as the line moves further in our favour.

Prop Bet:

  • Alex Perez to Win Inside the Distance +180
  • This is a solid option and while the knockout finish would seem like the better option based on Perez, Espinosa’s issue with submission defense leaves him vulnerable on the mat.
  • Let’s keep both on the table here.

DK Lineup:

  • Perez scored 140+ points in under 1 round against Torres- he could do the same here.
  • In victory, he has secured 90+ on 3 occasions and 70+ twice more.
  • Add him.

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Hannah Cifers +164 vs Angela Hill -170

  • Hill is a tough out that is going to give the top contenders a good fight. The bottom/ middle of the division a tough scrap. And rising prospects a test to determine where they fit.
  • Cifers doesn’t appear to offer the tools to keep up with Hill or slow here down. Angela will outwork her for the duration it what should be a competitive, but decisive fight.
  • Hiller opened at nearly even and the line movement has moved against us, but I am ok with that.
  • Gold Play for Overkill Hill.

Prop Bet:

  • I got burned with a prop bet on Hill by decision last time out. I will stay away from this.

DK Lineup:

  • Hill produces points. If she finishes, that is a bonus. Cifers should be there to hit and Hill will most likely land between 90 and 120 significant strikes. A takedown or 2 could also tack on a couple of key points.
  • Add her.

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Jamahal Hill -120 vs Darko Stosic +110

  • A near pick’em fight, the debuting Hill is now a slight favourite.
  • He impressed me in his Contender’s bout with his physical gifts, his technical ability, and his calm/ veteran-like demeanor. Stosic is not an easy debut, but it is certainly winnable is Hill is not overwhelmed by the spotlight.
  • Hill would be a Gold play in this bout if he wasn’t debuting.
  • Silver Play for Jamahal.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Bevon Lewis -350 vs Dequan Townsend +363

  • Lewis has not been able to close the show in recent outings, so we can’t lay big money or any money on his straight up.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Arnold Allen -250 vs Nik Lentz +226

  • Ruff, Ruff, Ruff.
  • I have been looking for Allen’s first UFCloss for a while. I think Lentz stands a very good chance of delivering. Allen has struggled with wrestling/takedown based fighters and Lentz is arguably the best and most consistent wrestler he has faced.
  • Lentz dominated with his wrestling at 145 against everyone but Chad Mendes (better wrestler) and Charles Oliveria (submission ace)- Arnold is neither of those.
  • If Lentz can ground Holtzman at LW he can do the same to Arnold at FW.
  • Silver play for Lentz.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Lentz is routinely underestimated and he is here again at a very affordable $7000.
  • His persistent takedown attack will produce points.
  • Add him.

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Justine Kish +148 vs Lucie Pudilova -160

  • I am routinely reminded by one of my more dedicated followers that WMMA fights are difficult to bet on. He is right, but I digress.
  • Kish has is pretty rough and tends to fight close fights. The move to 125 and layoff are not positives scenarios for here.
  • Pudilova is aggressive and seems to be right there in all of her bouts. Her volume and ability to more consistently engage are the keys to her success.
  • Pudilova outworks here.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • I was leaning towards a Decision win, but the layoff mixed with a heavy pace could be too much for Kish. Pass.

DK Lineup:

  • I considered Pudilova as an option, but she is a little expensive for my liking. She could win and only scored 55-65 points which is not enough for the cost.

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Felipe Colares +525 vs Montel Jackson -545

  • This is an easy pass for me. You should too.

Prop Bet:

  • Montel Jackson to Win Inside the Distance +105
  • Jackson is the better wrestler and the far better striker. I consider the knockout prop, but I feel like Colares gives up enough takedowns that Jackson could find his way to a choke.
  • The difference between the Finish and the Knockout props is enough to keep everything on the table.

DK Lineup:

  • Jackson has scored 91 and 95 points in each of his last 2 fights. One fight was quick and one fight was not. He could do either here.
  • Add him.

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Lina Lansberg +143 vs Sara McMann -147

  • Another tough WMMA fight to call, but I like McMann here. Yes, she has struggled at times with pressure and/or making good choices.
  • Her wrestling is the key- which is not groundbreaking. Lansberg struggles with takedown oriented fighters (has lost to lesser wrestlers). She doesn’t offer the submission game to threaten McMann and will need to find a way to stay vertical to be able to hurt her on the feet.
  • McMann was the dog which would have been better, but I still like the return here.
  • The layoff prevents me from getting in too deep- Bronze Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Brett Johns -101 vs Tony Gravely -107

  • This is a darn close fight. My first impression was that Gravely routinely finds himself in some back and forth grappling exchanges- that is a problem. The more I watched, the more he came out on the better end of it. That is key here.
  • Johns is not the same fighter when he can’t routinely win the TD battle. His volume is lower than most people realize and the lack of TDs makes him too 1-dimensional.
  • Add in the layoff and potential for ring rusts and Johns might be limited here.
  • Bronze play for Gravely in a close fight.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Herbert Burns +103 vs Nate Landwehr -110

  • We get a pair of debuting fighters from other respectable organizations.
  • I don’t like how Burns will give up position- but he is damn dangerous on the mat. Landwehr will eventually get drawn into making a mistake.
  • There is also something to be said for having a brother already in the UFC- Gilbert will have him prepped and ready.
  • Bronze play for the submission ace.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • I expect that if Burns wins it will be by submission. Add him.

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Confidence List

1. Angela Hill -170

2. Alex Perez -250

3. Montel Jackson -545

4. Bevon Lewis -350

5. Lucie Pudilova -160

====================

6. Jamahal Hill -120

7. Tony Gravely -107

8. Nik Lentz +226

9. Michael Chiesa +226

10. Herbert Burns +103

11. Sara McMann -147

12. Junior Dos Santos +216

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Nik Lentz +226

2. Michael Chiesa +226

3. Junior Dos Santos +216

4. Herbert Burns +103

5. Angela Hill -170

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Brett Johns/Tony Gravely

I think this fight goes the distance so a bet on Gravely by decision could be in order, but instead, I will layoff and look for the win any way we can get it.

2. Herbert Burns to Win by Submission +170

Burns has won 7 of his 9 victories by submission and I have him winning this fight- it is pretty straight forward. Take Burns by sub for plus money.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
2381535%

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FPO Candidate

1. Bevon Lewis to Win by Decision +175

Townsend is coming off a knockout loss- the first of his career. He is a tough out who has been around for a while. I think Lewis beats him and I will take this fight going the distance with Lewis putting forth the most complete effort of his UFC tenure.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
1911858%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
104640%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Jamahal Hill -120 vs Darko Stosic +110

2. Justine Kish +148 vs Lucie Pudilova -160

3. Lina Lansberg +143 vs Sara McMann -147

4. Brett Johns -101 vs Tony Gravely -107

5. Herbert Burns +103 vs Nate Landwehr -110

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
102525051%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
102465645%

 

 

 

 

Scott Johnson

scott

Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel's popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.

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