UFC FIGHT NIGHT 164: Blachowicz vs Jacare Predictions | Prelim Predictions

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 164: Blachowicz vs Jacare Predictions | Prelim Predictions

170lbs- Sergio Moraes (14-5-1) vs James Krause (25-8-0)

In the headlining bout of the undercard, Sergio “Panther” Moraes takes on the surging American James Krause in the Welterweight division. Krause has won 5 straight fights including a stoppage of Warlley Alves in his most recent contest. Moraes had lost just once over a span of 10-fights but enters the contest having dropped back to back fights including a stoppage loss to the aforementioned Alves.

A former Lightweight, Krause is 2-inches taller than Moraes and he will have a 1″ reach advantage. He is also the younger man by 4-years.

Moraes is an elite BJJ Black belt that has moved away from his grappling game to focus more on a fan-friendly striking attack. He has been rewarded with mixed results. His most recent victory came via submission of Ben Saunders. Against Rocco Martin, he completed a trio of takedowns but the majority of the fight saw him struggling to deal with his foe’s striking skills.

Sergio has been knocked out in 2 of his last 3 defeats.

Krause looked good against Alves, finishing him in round 2. He utilized a pressure-based attack that kept Alves on the defensive until the referee stopped the fight. He has a decent all-around attack with serviceable kicks and a good grappling game. He will need to avoid hitting the floor with Moraes. Krause has given up takedowns in 4 straight fights, but he has won them all.

14 of his 26 wins have come by submission.

The Brazilian is 5-1 when landing at least one takedown and he is 4-0 fighting at home against foreign-born fighters. Conversely, if Krause can keep the fight standing, he has the striking volume and diversity to control the exchanges. Moraes has power and is aggressive which will weigh well with the judges during the exchanges. He should be able to capitalize on the questionable TDD of Krause, scoring timely takedowns and controlling top position- my prediction is Sergio Moraes to defeat James Krause by decision.

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145lbs- Ricardo Ramos (12-2-0) vs Eduardo Garagorri (12-0-0)

In a battle for South American supremacy, Brazil’s Ricardo Ramos battles Uruguayan Eduardo Garagorri in the Featherweight division. Ramos started his UFC run with a 4-pack of wins before running into Said Nurmagomedov, he has since rebounded with a victory over Journey Newson. Garagorri remained undefeated with a successful debut performance against Humberto Bandenay- he is 3-0 in 2019.

Both men are 5’9″, Ramos will have a 2″ reach advantage. Ramos is the younger man by 6-years and is moving up a weight class.

Ramos is an aggressive, all-around dangerous fighter. He offers a solid striking attack that is highlighting by a spinning back-fist KO in the UFC. If the fight hits the floor, he is equally, if not more dangerous. He has landed a trio of takedowns on 2 separate occasions- winning both.

Ramos has had some issues with cardio, slowing down after a strong start. He has been finished in both of his pro defeats.

Fighting at home, Garagorri scored a debut win by decision- just the 3rd of his career. He entered the fight having stopped 6 straight opponents in the opening round. All but 1 of those wins coming by submission. It is worth noting that he gave up 4 takedowns in his debut, relying on his vertical output to earn the victory.

This is not the first time that Garagorri has fought in Brazil, but the majority of his recent fights have been on home soil.

Eduardo needs to keep this fight standing and force Ramos to work. If he can make his size a factor, that could be a possibility. Look for Ramos to capitalize on the TDD of his foe, forcing him to the mat with regularity. Once on the ground, the Brazilian will have a noteworthy edge. Ramos is dangerous on the feet, but his cardio and questionable defense are concerns- he will remove them from the equation- my prediction is Ricardo Ramos to defeat Eduardo Garagorri by submission

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155lbs- Francisco Trinaldo (23-6-0) vs Bobby Green (24-9-1)

In a battle of veteran Lightweights, Curitiba’s Francisco Trinaldo takes on California-born “King” Bobby Green. Green has just a single win over his last 6 fights including a draw with Lando Vannata and recent decision defeat to Drakkar Klose. Trinaldo’s 7-fight winning streak gave way to a 2-2 record- most recently dropping a decision to Alexander Hernandez.

Green, the younger man by 8-years, is an inch taller to go along with a 1″ reach advantage.

“King” Bobby Green, has not fought in almost a year and has struggled with overall activity. He fought 5-times in his first 2 years with the promotion followed by just 5 more fights over the next 5-years.

He is fighting outside of the USA for the first time since 2008.

Green is a decent boxer with good technique and a respectable work-rate. Despite his output, he tends to lack urgency in his offense, most notably dropping a decision in which he outlanded his opponent 92-58 and secured the only takedown.

Trinaldo’s success has come largely on his ability to limit his opponent’s offense while putting together a slightly busier and more impactful attack. His recent defeats have come when his opponents have been able to counter that with a pace that the Brazilian was unable to match.

Can Green do the same?

Trinaldo is 9-2 in the UFC when fighting a foreign-born opponent in Brazil and 5-0 for his career when competing in Sao Paulo. He is 2-3 on the road.

Both fighters have had a history of close decisions. Green is 3-2-1 in split decisions and is coming off of a fight he could have been given the nod in. Trinaldo is 2-0 in splits, winning both in Brazil and he is also coming off of a fight that could have gone either way. The volume edge goes to Green, but Trinaldo will bring more pressure, has more power, and is arguably more durable. Look for Trinaldo to press forward, force Green to back up, and land the bigger strikes in a close fight at home- my prediction is Franisco Trinaldo to defeat Bobby Green by (split) decision.

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170lbs- Warlley Alves (13-3-0) vs Randy Brown (10-3-0)

In the UFC Welterweight division, TUF Brazil winner Warlley Alves takes on “Looking for a Fight” product Randy “Rude Boy” Brown. Alves is coming off a stoppage over prelim headliner Sergio Moraes he is 3-3 over his last 6 fights. Brown scored a brutal stoppage win of Bryan Barberena- he is 5-3 in the UFC.

Brown is the taller man by 4-inches to go along with a 6-inch reach advantage. Alves is the younger man by a year.

Fighting at home, Alves is a respectable 5-2 inside the Octagon- including a decision loss to Kamaru Usman. This will be Brown’s first fight outside of the United States.

Brown is coming off an impressive performance, battering and stopping a tough opponent. It was the second knockout victory of his UFC tenure in addition to his UFC personal best striking output.

When the American is unable to force a striking heavy fight, he is not nearly as effective. Brown is 1-2 when giving up at least 2 takedowns and 2-3 when he gives up at least 1 completion.

The undoing of Alves has come in the form of pressure. Barberena overran on route to decision and Krause was able to stop with a volume-based striking attack.

Alves has the ground game to replicate Brown’s previous issues. The Brazilian also appears to have the edge in power, but Brown is far more capable of handling himself on the feet than the mat. If Brown can use his length and keep Alves on the outside, he could do damage and potentially tax his cardio by forcing him to close distance. Brown lacks the grappling of Krause to force a striking battle and Alves will negate his reach by staying close- my prediction is Warlley Alves to defeat James Krause by submission.

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135lbs- Douglas Silva De Andrade (25-3-0 1NC) vs Renan Barao (36-8-0 1NC)

The former Bantamweight champion returns to action as Renan Barao takes on fellow Brazilian Douglas De Andrade in the Bantamweight division. De Andrade is coming off a TKO loss to surging contender Petr Yan- he scored a decision win over Marlon Vera one fight prior. Barao is just 2-6 since he lost his title to TJ Dillashaw- he has lost 4 in a row including fights versus Aljamain Sterling and a recent KO against Luke Sanders.

De Andrade is an inch taller, but Barao will have a 2″ reach advantage. Renan is the younger man by 2-years, despite having fought 43-times (14 more than his foe).

The undoing of Barao was sudden and drastic. The majority of his recent defeats have come due to his inability to deal with his opponents’ pace and the mounting damage he takes in each fight. Conversely, his success has been built around finding the mark with quick finishes or utilizing a grappling heavy attack.

Andrade’s knockout numbers are impressive. He has recorded 19 of his 25 pro wins by (T)KO- 9 in the first round. He has just a single knockout in the UFC.

Nonetheless, Andrade is a sold striker with sizeable power. The last 2 fighters to beat the Brazilian pushed a strong pace that he was unable to match.

He has had issues with his TDD, giving up 8 completions over a trio of Octagon losses.

If Barao could find some semblance of his grappling game, he could put Andrade down with consistency. This would allow the former champion to both limit the damage he is exposed to and avoid stressing is fragile endurance. De Andrade hits hard and has shown he can push a decent pace. Look for him to keep Barao on his back foot for the majority of the fight, cracking him with big shots until he crumbles- my prediction is Douglas De Andrade to defeat Renan Barao by TKO.

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125lbs- Ariane Lipski (11-4-0) vs Isabella de Pauda (5-1-0)

With Veronic Macedo forced out of the fight on weigh-in day, Isabella De Pauda gets the call to take on Ariane Lipski. This will be a catchweight bout as de Pauda was unable to reach the 126-pound limit despite normally fighting at 115-pounds. With just over 24-hours before this fight goes down, the prediction will be short and sweet.

The short notice factor is a major concern for de Pauda, it is as short as you can get. She lost her pro debut, but is undefeated since and has never finished an opponent in the opening round. Her last 3 opponents are all above .500 with an overall record of 11-6.

de Pauda is a confident striker, willing to wade forward behind stiff combos and low kicks. She has shown a willingness to go to the floor, catching a kick for a takedown followed by prolonged top control. She will most likely be at a size and reach disadvantage against Lipski, so covering distance will be key.

It is too bad that Macedo withdrew, it would have been an interesting fight. Nonetheless, Lipski’s size and skill set are the keys here along with de Pauda having almost no time to prep for her toughest opponent yet. Isabella will put up a fight, but Lipski will simply do more- my prediction is Ariane Lipski to defeat Isabella de Pauda by TKO.


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125lbs- Ariane Lipski (11-4-0) vs Veronica Macedo (6-3-1)– Cancelled

Fresh off her first win, Veronica Macedo steps in on short notice to battle Brazilian Ariane “Violence Queen” Lipski in the Flyweight division. Lipski is winless in the UFC at 0-2, including a decision loss to Molly McCann earlier this year. Macedo started his UFC run with a trio of defeats including a loss to Andrea Lee- she scored an impressive submission win over Polyana Viana last time out.

Lipski is 2-inches taller and will have a 3″ reach advantage. Macedo, a southpaw, is a year younger. She is taking the fight with just over a week to prepare.

Over her pair of UFC defeats, Ariane has struggled to match the output of her opposition (193 to 121). She also gave up a trio of takedowns. Prior to coming to the UFC only 2 of her 8 fights went beyond the second round including 4 first-round stoppages.

Macedo has shown herself to be a dangerous grappler, with her impressive submission over Viana. She has also struggled in that department- getting taken down in all of her Octagon bouts.

She is both a Black belt in BJJ and Taekwondo.

Macedo’s quick win was impressive but didn’t do much to answer the questions surrounding her early struggles. Lipski’s volume was her undoing in her 2 UFC bouts, but it will also be the key to her success here. Macedo has struggled to match her opponent’s aggression and tends to fade in longer fights. Look for Lipski to push a strong pace and try to exploit Veronic’s short notice and questionable cardio- my prediction is Ariane Lipski to defeat Veronica Madeco by TKO.

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135lbs- Vanessa Melo (10-6-0) vs Tracy Cortez (6-1-0)

In a fight completely altered by injuries, Vanessa Melo makes her sophomore appearance when she takes on the debuting Tracy Cortez. Melo fell to Irene Aldana in her debut, ending a 5-fight winning streak. Cortez has won 6 in a row since her pro-debut defeat- she is 2-1 in Invicta and earned a decision win on the Contenders Series.

Both girls are 5’5″ and have an identical 65″ reach. Cortez is 5-years younger. Both girls normally fight at Flyweight, but Melo missed weight badly in her short-notice Bantamweight debut.

Leah Letson and Duda Santana were originally scheduled to square off. Letson pulled out in late September and was replaced by Cortez. Santana then withdrew and was replaced by Melo on shorter notice.

Both girls offer decisions heavy records, which could impact Cortez more as she comes in on shorter notice and could struggle to maintain her regular levels of output.

Cortez appears to build a lot of her offense around takedowns and ground control. She is a good wrestler and capable of passing her foe’s guard once they hit the floor.

In her short-notice debut, Melo came in overweight by 5-pounds and fought at altitude. She was unable to handle the pace fo Aldana over the course of 15-minutes.

Melo is fighting at home which is a big advantage, but she is doing so on short notice. If Melo can force her foe to stay vertical, she can counter her way to a decision win. Conversely, Cortez will be looking for a takedown heavy performance. Early this year, Melo struggled with the takedowns of her foe and didn’t look good once on her back. Cortez will have a speed advantage and has had longer to prepare for this fight. Cortez pushes the pace, shoots takedowns, and grind Melo out on the mat- my prediction is Tracy Cortez to defeat Vanessa Melo by decision.

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