UFC Fight Night 164: Blachowicz vs Jacare | Bet Pack Review
Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack
Parlays & Single Bets
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Markus Perez | to Win | -112 |  |
| ODDS: | -112 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 15.14u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Warlley Alves | to Win | -125 | |
| + Douglas de Andrade | to Win | -250 |  |
| ODDS: | +152 | ||
| BET: | 7u | ||
| RETURN: | 17.64u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Ronaldo Souza | to Win | +160 | |
| ODDS: | +160 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 13u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Sergio Moraes | to Win | +173 | |
| + Francisco Trinaldo | to Win | -130 | |
| ODDS: | +383 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 28.98u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Andre Muniz | to Win | -115 | |
| ODDS: | -115 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 7.48u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Tracy Cortez | to Win by Decision | -120 | |
| ODDS: | -120 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 7.33u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Douglas de Andrade | to Win by KO/TKO | +185 | |
| ODDS: | +185 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 8.55u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Charles Oliveira | to Win by Submission | -135 | |
| + Mauricio Rua | to Win Inside the Distance | -140 | |
| ODDS: | +198 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 11.94u |
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Warlley Alves | to Win | -125 | |
| + Douglas de Andrade | to Win | -250 | |
| + Markus Perez | to Win | -112 | |
| ODDS: | +377 | ||
| BET: | 12u | ||
| RETURN: | 57.24u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Sergio Moraes | to Win | +173 | |
| + Ronaldo Souza | to Win | +160 | |
| + Francisco Trinaldo | to Win | -130 | |
| ODDS: | +1156 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 100.46u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Andre Muniz | to Win | -115 | |
| + Tracy Cortez | to Win by Decision | -120 | |
| + Markus Perez | to Win | -112 | |
| ODDS: | +549 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 38.93u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Warlley Alves | to Win | -125 | |
| + Francisco Trinaldo | to Win | -130 | |
| + Andre Muniz | to Win | -115 | |
| + Charles Oliveira | to Win by Submission | -135 | |
| ODDS: | +936 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 62.18u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Douglas de Andrade | to Win by KO/TKO | +185 | |
| + Charles Oliveira | to Win by Submission | -135 | |
| + Mauricio Rua | to Win Inside the Distance | -140 | |
| ODDS: | +750 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 42.52u |
| BET #3 | |||
| + Ronaldo Souza | to Win | +160 | |
| + Markus Perez | to Win | -112 | |
| + Mauricio Rua | to Win Inside the Distance | -140 | |
| + Francisco Trinaldo | to Win | -130 | |
| ODDS: | +1393 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 89.56u |
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
| + Arianne Lipski | $7700 | |
| + Charles Oliveira | $9400 | |
| + Warlley Alves | $8300 | |
| + Douglas De Andrade | $9100 | |
| + Sergio Moraes | $7200 | |
| + Andre Muniz | $8200 | |
Spares
| + Jacare Souza | $7300 | |
| + | ||
| + | ||
| + |
Betting Breakdowns
Jan Blachowicz -170 vs Ronaldo Souza +160
The line has been pretty stiff and I understand that. We have recently seen not 1, but 2 top MWs from Jacare’s era get obliterated at LHW. Weidman got destroyed by Reyes and Rockhold got smashed by Jan. That has people treading very carefully here. I get it. Jacare is more durable than both of those fighters which is a big factor here. He is also fighting at home where the stats favour him significantly. We also need to take into account the track record of Blachowicz on the road. It is not great. I like Jacare here for dog money. The increase in weight creates some uncertainty. Silver play for me.
I have Souza on my spare list. Move him in for some diversity as he could get the finish on the mat, especially if he wears Jan down with takedowns. He was in my original lineup, but I bumped him- more on that later.
Paul Craig +248 vs Mauricio Rua -265
This is an easy pass. A short-notice fight for Craig, a layoff for Shogun. The line is not great and we honestly don’t know how Shogun is going to look. If he fades and Craig gets in a position (back mount) to finish him- he will. Let it go.
I thought about playing Rua here, but there are other big-ticket options that are worth our money- pass.
Jared Gordon +355 vs Charles Oliveira -390
I will look at a prop bet here, but I don’t want to touch Oliveira straight up. He should win this fight, but there have been enough issues to avoid any play at this cost. Look to the prop section for other options.
Oliveira is a finishing machine. Backing him here, even at big money, is the play to make. An easy inclusion against a fighter that has been knocked out 3-times and could get caught by a fighter that sub anyone.
Antonio Arroyo +110 vs Andre Muniz -115
I like Muniz here even though I feel Arroyo is the more complete fighter. Muniz is dangerous on the mat and Arroyo can be taken down and he can give up takedowns as well based on some bad technique choices. I see Muniz either subbing him or grinding him out. Not a lot of line movement which is fine, people on both sides for justifiable reasons. Let’s keep our investment limited. Bronze play.
Muniz is affordable and offers a good submission game with the backup of multiple takedowns on the board. Add him.
Markus Perez -112 vs Wellington Turman +105
The opening fight of the main card has something to sink our teeth into from a line perspective. Perez opened around the -260 mark and has consistently been bet down (up in value. Turman is getting a long look because he is talented and fought a close fight against Roberson. We need to keep in mind that Perez is fighting in his home city which is huge. We also need to recognize that Perez is a very good grappler in his own right and will limit Turman’s TDs. Moreover, he will make Turman pay for making mistakes on the mat and giving up position. Gold play for Perez.
I am not sure Perez gets the finish or at least not sure enough. Pass here.
James Krause -185 vs Sergio Moraes +173
Just like the main event, we are looking at a Brazilian dog here. As I mentioned in my prediction, Sergio is 5-1 when landing at least one takedown and he is 4-0 fighting at home against foreign-born fighters. Krause has given up takedowns in 7 of his 10 UFC fights and in 4 straight fights. Sergio is the larger man at WW and if he can close the gap and take Krause down as the numbers suggest, he will be in good shape. He has shown a more grappling focussed approach in recent fights. I like Sergio in my Silver section.
Any time Moraes can score a takedown he is in a position to finish the fight. That should be the case here. Moraes should be able to score a handful of takedowns and/or get the finish. Add him.
Eduardo Garagorri +315 vs Ricardo Ramos -320
Ramos moving up and a wild/ aggressive fighter. Let’s not put money on that. Pass.
He might get a sub finish, but you will have to pay quite a bit for it. Pass.
Bobby Green +125 vs Francisco Trinaldo -130
Trinaldo opened around -170 and even higher and is getting bet down. This stands to be a close fight. My expectation is that if we go to the scorecards, we will have no idea who is going to be ahead here. In that scenario, I want the Brazilian with a better track record in close fights. Green lacks urgency. It takes a certain style to outland an opponent 98 to 56, gives up zero takedowns, land one, and still drop a unanimous decision. Trinaldo will outwork him here. Big Silver play for Francisco.
I am looking at a decision here. Pass.
Warlley Alves -125 vs Randy Brown +115
Brown looked awesome against Barberena, who upset Alves in Brazil. That is some pretty easy MMA math. I feel like that is playing a big role here when it comes to where the line is sitting. I also feel like the KO loss for Alves against Krause is a major talking point as well. Brown offers a similar approach on the feet that could result in the same…result. It is worth noting that Alves got stopped in the USA and he is 5-2 at home while he has fought just twice in the USA. Brown is on the road for the first time and fighting in Brazil is tough! Brown isn’t nearly as good on the mat as Krause is either which allowed James to stay vertical for long enough. I like Alves to use takedowns and top control here. Brown has given up 5 takedowns over 3 losses compared to 3 takedowns over 5 wins. He is a -4 in the TD battle in defeat vs +1 over his 5 wins. Gold play for Warlley. Watch that guillotine along the wall where Brown usually gets engaged in a grappling battle.
Alves hits hard and is a constant submission threat with TD point potential- add him.
Renan Barao +230 vs Douglas Silva de Andrade -250
Barao is done. Maybe he proves me wrong, but he just looks done. De Andrade still has tread on the tires and offers the style that will trouble Barao. DSA isn’t as active as some of the fighters that have beaten Barao, but he hits very hard and will trouble Barao until he gets him out of there. We have lost some of the early value that de Andrade opened with, but I am fine with the current state of return. Gold play for Dougie.
Barao is coming off a brutal KO loss against a fighter that I don’t think hits as hard as de Andrade. Barao striking D is a major concern. Points to be had here. Add Andrade.
Ariane Lipski -253 vs Isabella de Pauda +215
Nothing to like here. Avoid this fight.
Lipski is still affordable with her price set from the previous fight. That makes her a bargain. She showed she can finish on the regional scene and we have to think she can get de Pauda out of there considering all of the issues against her. Add Lipski.
Tracy Cortez -200 vs Vanessa Melo +185
Both girls missed weight. Not great for either girl. I like Cortez to land takedowns and keep Melo on her back- she has not looked good there. Bronze play to combo with Muniz.
Most likely a decision and she is too expensive for that. Pass.
Confidence List
1. Douglas Silva de Andrade -250
2. Charles Oliveira -390
3. Markus Perez -112
4. Mauricio Rua -265
5. Ricardo Ramos -320
====================
6. Warlley Alves -125
7. Francisco Trinaldo -130
8. Sergio Moraes +173
9. Ronaldo Souza +160
10. Andre Muniz -115
11. Ariane Lipski -253
12. Tracy Cortez -200
Value Bet List
1. Markus Perez -112
2. Sergio Moraes +173
3. Ronaldo Souza +160
4. Warlley Alves -125
5. Francisco Trinaldo -130
Counter Bets
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Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
C. Daniel Cormier
#1 Jon Jones
EPU Candidate(s)
1. Ariane Lipski/Isabella de Pauda
I really want nothing to do with this fight. Lipski could get the finish, but I will sit this one out.
2. Tracy Cortez to Win by Decision -120
Cortez’s grinding, top position style is decision producer- especially at this level where she won’t be able to overwhelm her opponents with just a strong top game. I think this is a solid play here and your best option out of a lot of unknown in the opening 2 fights.
| EPU | ||||
| 47 | 24 | 23 | 51% | |
| 55 | 31 | 24 | 56% | |
| 47 | 20 | 27 | 43% | |
| 42 | 25 | 17 | 60% | |
| 32 | 13 | 19 | 41% | |
| 23 | 8 | 15 | 35% | |
FPO Candidate
1. James Krause/Sergio Moraes
I’m riding the dog, so I will take the win any way I can get it.
| Final Prelim | ||||
| 46 | ||||
| 36 | 16 | 20 | 44% | |
| 39 | 26 | 13 | 67% | |
| 34 | 25 | 9 | 74% | |
| 33 | 22 | 11 | 67% | |
| 38 | 23 | 15 | 61% | |
| 19 | 11 | 8 | 58% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 35 | 17 | 18 | 49% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 31 | 13 | 18 | 42% | |
| 30 | 9 | 21 | 30% | |
| 10 | 4 | 6 | 40% |
HEF Candidate(s)
1. Antonio Arroyo +110 vs Andre Muniz -115
2. Markus Perez -112 vs Wellington Turman +105
3. Bobby Green +125 vs Francisco Trinaldo -130
4. Warlley Alves -125 vs Randy Brown +115
| HEFs | ||||
| 177 | 93 | 84 | 53% | |
| 212 | 106 | 106 | 50% | |
| 179 | 110 | 69 | 61% | |
| 192 | 100 | 92 | 52% | |
| 217 | 100 | 117 | 46% | |
| 102 | 52 | 50 | 51% | |
| 181 | 97 | 84 | 54% | |
| 212 | 108 | 104 | 51% | |
| 179 | 87 | 92 | 49% | |
| 192 | 95 | 97 | 49% | |
| 211 | 110 | 101 | 52% | |
| 102 | 46 | 56 | 45% |
Prop Bets
Mauricio Rua to Win Inside the Distance -140
All of Craig’s defeats have come inside the distance. Shogun hits hard and is a capable grappler. He should be able to finish against an opponent on short notice with a lot of gaps in his game. If you want to get involved in this fight, this is your best option.
Charles Oliveira to Win by Submission -135
There is a strong argument to take Oliveira by knockout. Great return. He is coming off a knockout win. And Gordon has been knocked out 3 times and never subbed. I think the Oliveira KO win is a great reason to fade Oliveira by KO this time around. I look for him to return to what he knows. Look for him to either stun Gordon and grab the sub or catch him trying to frantically wrestle and lock up a choke.
James Krause/Sergio MoraesSee the Betting Scenario Section.
Ricardo Ramos to Win Inside the Distance +150
Ramos has a good submission game and is fighting an opponent that can be taken down. He also loves throwing spinning attacks and can finish with his striking. Let’s take plus money for Ramos to come up in weight and look good at home against a potentially overmatched opponent.
Douglas Silva de Andrade -to Win by KO/TKO +185
Barao got hammered last time out and it just looks like he is done. If that is the case and we are getting plus money on De Andrade, he certainly is worth a look to get him out of there. Take a shot at fading the fading former champion’s ability to survive a full 15-minutes.
Ariane Lipski/Isabella de PaudaSee the Betting Scenario Section.
Tracy Cortez/Vanessa Melo
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.
