UFC Fight Night 164: Blachowicz vs Jacare | Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Night 164: Blachowicz vs Jacare | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Markus Perez  to Win -112
ODDS: -112
BET: 8u
RETURN: 15.14u

 

BET #2
+ Warlley Alves  to Win -125
+ Douglas de Andrade  to Win -250
ODDS: +152
BET: 7u
RETURN: 17.64u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Ronaldo Souza  to Win +160
ODDS: +160
BET: 5u
RETURN: 13u

 

BET #2
+ Sergio Moraes  to Win +173
+ Francisco Trinaldo  to Win -130
ODDS: +383
BET: 6u
RETURN: 28.98u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Andre Muniz  to Win -115
ODDS: -115
BET: 4u
RETURN: 7.48u

 

BET #2
+ Tracy Cortez  to Win by Decision -120
ODDS: -120
BET: 4u
RETURN: 7.33u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Douglas de Andrade  to Win by KO/TKO +185
ODDS: +185
BET: 3u
RETURN: 8.55u

 

BET #2
+ Charles Oliveira  to Win by Submission -135
+ Mauricio Rua   to Win Inside the Distance -140
ODDS: +198
BET: 4u
RETURN: 11.94u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Warlley Alves  to Win -125
+ Douglas de Andrade  to Win -250
+ Markus Perez  to Win -112
ODDS: +377
BET: 12u
RETURN: 57.24u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Sergio Moraes  to Win +173
+ Ronaldo Souza  to Win +160
+ Francisco Trinaldo  to Win -130
ODDS: +1156
BET: 8u
RETURN: 100.46u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Andre Muniz  to Win -115
+ Tracy Cortez  to Win by Decision -120
+ Markus Perez  to Win -112
ODDS: +549
BET: 6u
RETURN: 38.93u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Warlley Alves  to Win -125
+ Francisco Trinaldo  to Win -130
+ Andre Muniz  to Win -115
+ Charles Oliveira  to Win by Submission -135
ODDS: +936
BET: 6u
RETURN: 62.18u

BET #2
+ Douglas de Andrade  to Win by KO/TKO +185
+ Charles Oliveira  to Win by Submission -135
+ Mauricio Rua   to Win Inside the Distance -140
ODDS: +750
BET: 5u
RETURN: 42.52u

BET #3
+ Ronaldo Souza  to Win +160
+ Markus Perez  to Win -112
+ Mauricio Rua   to Win Inside the Distance -140
+ Francisco Trinaldo  to Win -130
ODDS: +1393
BET: 6u
RETURN: 89.56u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Arianne Lipski $7700
+ Charles Oliveira $9400
+ Warlley Alves $8300
+ Douglas De Andrade $9100
+ Sergio Moraes $7200
+ Andre Muniz  $8200

Spares

+ Jacare Souza $7300
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Jan Blachowicz -170 vs Ronaldo Souza +160

The line has been pretty stiff and I understand that. We have recently seen not 1, but 2 top MWs from Jacare’s era get obliterated at LHW. Weidman got destroyed by Reyes and Rockhold got smashed by Jan. That has people treading very carefully here. I get it. Jacare is more durable than both of those fighters which is a big factor here. He is also fighting at home where the stats favour him significantly. We also need to take into account the track record of Blachowicz on the road. It is not great. I like Jacare here for dog money. The increase in weight creates some uncertainty. Silver play for me.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Souza on my spare list. Move him in for some diversity as he could get the finish on the mat, especially if he wears Jan down with takedowns. He was in my original lineup, but I bumped him- more on that later.

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Paul Craig +248 vs Mauricio Rua -265

This is an easy pass. A short-notice fight for Craig, a layoff for Shogun. The line is not great and we honestly don’t know how Shogun is going to look. If he fades and Craig gets in a position (back mount) to finish him- he will. Let it go.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I thought about playing Rua here, but there are other big-ticket options that are worth our money- pass.

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Jared Gordon +355 vs Charles Oliveira -390

I will look at a prop bet here, but I don’t want to touch Oliveira straight up. He should win this fight, but there have been enough issues to avoid any play at this cost. Look to the prop section for other options.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Oliveira is a finishing machine. Backing him here, even at big money, is the play to make. An easy inclusion against a fighter that has been knocked out 3-times and could get caught by a fighter that sub anyone.

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Antonio Arroyo +110 vs Andre Muniz -115

I like Muniz here even though I feel Arroyo is the more complete fighter. Muniz is dangerous on the mat and Arroyo can be taken down and he can give up takedowns as well based on some bad technique choices. I see Muniz either subbing him or grinding him out. Not a lot of line movement which is fine, people on both sides for justifiable reasons. Let’s keep our investment limited. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Muniz is affordable and offers a good submission game with the backup of multiple takedowns on the board. Add him.

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Markus Perez -112 vs Wellington Turman +105

The opening fight of the main card has something to sink our teeth into from a line perspective. Perez opened around the -260 mark and has consistently been bet down (up in value. Turman is getting a long look because he is talented and fought a close fight against Roberson. We need to keep in mind that Perez is fighting in his home city which is huge. We also need to recognize that Perez is a very good grappler in his own right and will limit Turman’s TDs. Moreover, he will make Turman pay for making mistakes on the mat and giving up position. Gold play for Perez.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I am not sure Perez gets the finish or at least not sure enough. Pass here.

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James Krause -185 vs Sergio Moraes +173

Just like the main event, we are looking at a Brazilian dog here. As I mentioned in my prediction, Sergio is 5-1 when landing at least one takedown and he is 4-0 fighting at home against foreign-born fighters. Krause has given up takedowns in 7 of his 10 UFC fights and in 4 straight fights. Sergio is the larger man at WW and if he can close the gap and take Krause down as the numbers suggest, he will be in good shape. He has shown a more grappling focussed approach in recent fights. I like Sergio in my Silver section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Any time Moraes can score a takedown he is in a position to finish the fight. That should be the case here. Moraes should be able to score a handful of takedowns and/or get the finish. Add him.

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Eduardo Garagorri +315 vs Ricardo Ramos -320

Ramos moving up and a wild/ aggressive fighter. Let’s not put money on that. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

He might get a sub finish, but you will have to pay quite a bit for it. Pass.

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Bobby Green +125 vs Francisco Trinaldo -130

Trinaldo opened around -170 and even higher and is getting bet down. This stands to be a close fight. My expectation is that if we go to the scorecards, we will have no idea who is going to be ahead here. In that scenario, I want the Brazilian with a better track record in close fights. Green lacks urgency. It takes a certain style to outland an opponent 98 to 56, gives up zero takedowns, land one, and still drop a unanimous decision. Trinaldo will outwork him here. Big Silver play for Francisco.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I am looking at a decision here. Pass.

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Warlley Alves -125 vs Randy Brown +115

Brown looked awesome against Barberena, who upset Alves in Brazil. That is some pretty easy MMA math. I feel like that is playing a big role here when it comes to where the line is sitting. I also feel like the KO loss for Alves against Krause is a major talking point as well. Brown offers a similar approach on the feet that could result in the same…result. It is worth noting that Alves got stopped in the USA and he is 5-2 at home while he has fought just twice in the USA. Brown is on the road for the first time and fighting in Brazil is tough! Brown isn’t nearly as good on the mat as Krause is either which allowed James to stay vertical for long enough. I like Alves to use takedowns and top control here. Brown has given up 5 takedowns over 3 losses compared to 3 takedowns over 5 wins. He is a -4 in the TD battle in defeat vs +1 over his 5 wins. Gold play for Warlley. Watch that guillotine along the wall where Brown usually gets engaged in a grappling battle.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Alves hits hard and is a constant submission threat with TD point potential- add him.

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Renan Barao +230 vs Douglas Silva de Andrade -250

Barao is done. Maybe he proves me wrong, but he just looks done. De Andrade still has tread on the tires and offers the style that will trouble Barao. DSA isn’t as active as some of the fighters that have beaten Barao, but he hits very hard and will trouble Barao until he gets him out of there. We have lost some of the early value that de Andrade opened with, but I am fine with the current state of return. Gold play for Dougie.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Barao is coming off a brutal KO loss against a fighter that I don’t think hits as hard as de Andrade. Barao striking D is a major concern. Points to be had here. Add Andrade.

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Ariane Lipski -253 vs Isabella de Pauda +215

Nothing to like here. Avoid this fight.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Lipski is still affordable with her price set from the previous fight. That makes her a bargain. She showed she can finish on the regional scene and we have to think she can get de Pauda out of there considering all of the issues against her. Add Lipski.

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Tracy Cortez -200 vs Vanessa Melo +185

Both girls missed weight. Not great for either girl. I like Cortez to land takedowns and keep Melo on her back- she has not looked good there. Bronze play to combo with Muniz.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Most likely a decision and she is too expensive for that. Pass.

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Confidence List

1. Douglas Silva de Andrade -250

2. Charles Oliveira -390

3. Markus Perez -112

4. Mauricio Rua -265

5. Ricardo Ramos -320

====================

6. Warlley Alves -125

7. Francisco Trinaldo -130

8. Sergio Moraes +173

9. Ronaldo Souza +160

10. Andre Muniz -115

11. Ariane Lipski -253

12. Tracy Cortez -200

 

Value Bet List

1. Markus Perez -112

2. Sergio Moraes +173

3. Ronaldo Souza +160

4. Warlley Alves -125

5. Francisco Trinaldo -130

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Ariane Lipski/Isabella de Pauda

I really want nothing to do with this fight. Lipski could get the finish, but I will sit this one out.

2. Tracy Cortez to Win by Decision -120

Cortez’s grinding, top position style is decision producer- especially at this level where she won’t be able to overwhelm her opponents with just a strong top game. I think this is a solid play here and your best option out of a lot of unknown in the opening 2 fights.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
44
14 of 35 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
29111838%

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FPO Candidate

1. James Krause/Sergio Moraes

I’m riding the dog, so I will take the win any way I can get it.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
34211362%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2791833%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Antonio Arroyo +110 vs Andre Muniz -115

2. Markus Perez -112 vs Wellington Turman +105

3. Bobby Green +125 vs Francisco Trinaldo -130

4. Warlley Alves -125 vs Randy Brown +115

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
1969310347%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
191969550%

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Prop Bets

Mauricio Rua to Win Inside the Distance -140

All of Craig’s defeats have come inside the distance. Shogun hits hard and is a capable grappler. He should be able to finish against an opponent on short notice with a lot of gaps in his game. If you want to get involved in this fight, this is your best option.

Charles Oliveira to Win by Submission -135

There is a strong argument to take Oliveira by knockout. Great return. He is coming off a knockout win. And Gordon has been knocked out 3 times and never subbed. I think the Oliveira KO win is a great reason to fade Oliveira by KO this time around. I look for him to return to what he knows. Look for him to either stun Gordon and grab the sub or catch him trying to frantically wrestle and lock up a choke.

James Krause/Sergio Moraes

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Ricardo Ramos to Win Inside the Distance +150

Ramos has a good submission game and is fighting an opponent that can be taken down. He also loves throwing spinning attacks and can finish with his striking. Let’s take plus money for Ramos to come up in weight and look good at home against a potentially overmatched opponent.

Douglas Silva de Andrade -to Win by KO/TKO +185

Barao got hammered last time out and it just looks like he is done. If that is the case and we are getting plus money on De Andrade, he certainly is worth a look to get him out of there. Take a shot at fading the fading former champion’s ability to survive a full 15-minutes.

Ariane Lipski/Isabella de Pauda

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Tracy Cortez/Vanessa Melo

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

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