UFC Fight Night 163: Zabit vs Kattar | Bet Pack Review
Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack
Parlays & Single Bets
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Zabit Magomedsharipov | to Win | -275 |  |
| + Pannie Kianzad | to Win | -105 | |
| ODDS: | +166 | ||
| BET: | 10u | ||
| RETURN: | 26.62u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Rocco Martin | to Win | +116 | |
| + Rustam Khabilov | to Win | -189 | |
| ODDS: | +230 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 26.42 |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Alexander Volkov | to Win | -255 | |
| + Roosevelt Roberts | to Win | -138 | |
| ODDS: | +140 | ||
| BET: | 7u | ||
| RETURN: | 16.81u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Khadis Ibragimov | to Win | -137 |  |
| + Shamil Gamzatov | to Win | -170 | |
| ODDS: | +175 | ||
| BET: | 7u | ||
| RETURN: | 19.23u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Davey Grant | to Win | +155 | |
| ODDS: | +155 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 12.75u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Roman Kopylov | to Win | -105 | |
| + Zelim Imadaev | to Win | -205 | |
| + Abubakar Nurmagomedov | to Win | -285 | |
| ODDS: | +292 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 19.62u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Davey Grant | to Win by Submission | +650 | |
| ODDS: | +650 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 30u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Rustam Khabilov | to Win by Decision | +125 | |
| + Magomed Ankalaev | to Win by Decision | +230 | |
| ODDS: | +643 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 29.7u |
| BET #1 | |||
| + Roosevelt Roberts | to Win | -138 | |
| + Pannie Kianzad | to Win | -105 | |
| + Roman Kopylov | to Win | -105 | |
| + Rocco Martin | to Win | +116 | |
| ODDS: | +1320 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 56.8u |
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Zabit Magomedsharipov | to Win | -275 | |
| + Pannie Kianzad | to Win | -105 | |
| + Rocco Martin | to Win | +116 | |
| ODDS: | +475 | ||
| BET: | 10u | ||
| RETURN: | 57.51u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Zabit Magomedsharipov | to Win | -275 | |
| + Pannie Kianzad | to Win | -105 | |
| + Rustam Khabilov | to Win | -189 | |
| ODDS: | +307 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 32.57u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Khadis Ibragimov | to Win | -137 | |
| + Shamil Gamzatov | to Win | -170 | |
| + Roosevelt Roberts | to Win | -138 | |
| ODDS: | +374 | ||
| BET: | 7u | ||
| RETURN: | 33.17u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Roman Kopylov | to Win | -105 | |
| + Zelim Imadaev | to Win | -205 | |
| + Abubakar Nurmagomedov | to Win | -285 | |
| + Davey Grant | to Win | +155 | |
| ODDS: | +901 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 50.03u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Pannie Kianzad | to Win | -105 | |
| + Roosevelt Roberts | to Win | -138 | |
| + Magomed Ankalaev | to Win by Decision | +230 | |
| ODDS: | +1011 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 44.45u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Rustam Khabilov | to Win by Decision | +125 | |
| + Davey Grant | to Win by Submission | +650 | |
| + Zabit Magomedsharipov | to Win | -275 | |
| ODDS: | +2201 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 92.05u |
| BET #3 | |||
| + Khadis Ibragimov | to Win | -137 | |
| + Shamil Gamzatov | to Win | -170 | |
| + Roman Kopylov | to Win | -105 | |
| + Zelim Imadaev | to Win | -205 | |
| ODDS: | +436 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 32.19u |
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
| + Zelim Imadaev | $8800 | |
| + Rocco Martin | $7800 | |
| + Pannie Kianzad | $8000 | |
| + Davey Grant | $7200 | |
| + Khadis Ibragimov | $8700 | |
| + Alexander Volkov | $9200 | |
Spares
| + Roman Kopylov | $8300 | |
| + | ||
| + | ||
| + |
Betting Breakdowns
Zabit Magomedsharipov -275 vs Calvin Kattar +255
The change in venue is not a great deal for Kattar, but if he pulls it out that makes the win even more significant. We have seen some movement on Zabit, but we are still getting a solid price. Zabit is closing in on -300 on a couple of sites, but if you shop around you can get a solid price. Kattar has looked good in most of his fights, Zabit is just another animal and fighting in Russia makes this even more difficult for the American. Gold Play for Zabit, most likely paired with Pannie in HBC Gold play.
Zabit misses out on the Fantasy lineup on the basis of a tough opponent. Pass.
Greg Hardy +235 vs Alexander Volkov -255
This fight has come together in a relatively short time with Volkov opening around -175. There is one factor here that is preventing Volkov from becoming too heavy a fav- the flash knockout. If Hardy can come over the top (Similar to Lewis) he could stop Volkov. I feel like this is way too much, too soon for the former NFLer. Volkov will keep him on the outside and pick away at him for a wide decision or stoppage win. I like Volkov as a complimentary pick in the Silver section.
I am willing to take Volkov here. I think he can get a stoppage against Hardy who taking a massive step up in competition with no time to prep and heading on the road to a hostile environment. Volkov has great potential to get him out of there.
Zelim Imadaev -205 vs Danny Roberts +200
Robert’s diminishing durability has to be a major concern in any of his fights. I simply don’t trust him against a fighter that has enough power to get him out of there and is motivated by fighting at home. That being said, the return on Imadaev is not that great either. I will toss Zelim into my Bronze section.
The lack of durability from Roberts makes Imadaev an easy inclusion here. Add him.
Ed Herman +125 vs Khadis Ibragimov -137
Here is a line that is a little more playable. Ibragimov didn’t look great at the end of the fight, but he was arguably winning it right up until the finish. He opened around -175 which tells me we are getting a decent return with the recent movement heading in our direction. Herman is a crafty veteran, but he will be hardpressed to survive this battle. Solid Silver play for Khadis.
With the mounting finishes on his record, Herman is a fadable candidate for your fantasy team. Add Ibragimov.
Ramazan Emeev -120 vs Anthony Rocco Martin +116
Going against Russians in Russia is always a top proposition. This is just 1 of 3 fights on the card that I elected to make that choice. I like Martin. I picked Maia, but I felt Martin accounted for himself quite well. Emeev’s 3 wins have been decent, but not overwhelming. His stats suggest it would not take a big push back to overcome him here. Martin will make the ground game undesirable and outwork him on the feet. This stands to be a close fight and could produce a frustrating decision, but I like the American here. Gold play.
Martin has shown he can finish both on the feet and on the mat. He is also a slight dog which makes him quite affordable. Add him.
Klidson Abreu +160 vs Shamil Gamzatov -170
I am seeing a lot of people backing Abreu here. I understand where they are coming from. That being said, I think this will be a bad spot for him on the road. I like Gamzatov’s more conservative attack to limit Abreu’s openings to get his BJJ involved. Shamil opened around -270 and has steadily improved in price which is indicative of the support for Abreu. Silver play for Shamil.
Abreu has shown he is a tough out and Gamzatov has been taking a lot of fights to the cards. Pass.
Magomed Ankalaev -390 vs Dalcha Lungiambula +355
No play here. Ankalaev should win, but Dalcha is enough of a threat to make this already unappealing price easy to overlook. Pass
Nothing doing here. Ankalaev has been grinding towards low volumes decisions in most of his UFC fights and he is too expensive for that result. Pass.
Rustam Khabilov -189 vs Sergey Khandozhko +175
Khabilov is going up to WW. I hope that makes him more active and willing to engage. Khandozhko is susceptible to takedowns and that is something that Khabilov still does well. Khabilov will secure takedowns and hold top control in a rather dull but successful performance. Gold play for Tiger.
I am looking at a grinding decision here, not the ideal Fantasy play. Pass.
Roman Kopylov -105 vs Karl Roberson +100
I went back and forth on this one. I find it interesting that most of Roberson’s success has gone down on the mat. He could look for something similar here. Kopylov is pretty sound defensively and offers solid striking skills. I have read some very positive reports on him and footage showcases a capable fighter. In a close battle like this let’s take the home factor. We are getting a great return here with Kopylov close to -200 at its initial open. I considered a Silver play here, but I like Roman as the key factor in my Bronze plays.
With Kobylov’s history of finishes and manageable price, lets add him in as a spare to create some nice variety.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov -285 vs David Zawada +275
I was borderline on not play Nurmagomedov. I feel like the UFC is giving him a winnable fight at home. Zawada is feisty and needs a win or it could be all over for his UFC tenure. The line is climbing against us, he is either a complimentary Bronze play or nothing at all.
Pass here. Grinding, top position decision with limit point potential.
Roosevelt Roberts -138 vs Alexander Yakovlev +130
This is a big fight for Roberts. Getting upset in his last outing for the first loss of his career should be a motivating factor. I picked Yaks in his last fight and was not impressed with his performance despite getting the win. I think Roberts can stay active and outwork him everywhere. The price on RR is getting better. I like him as a strong Silver play here.
I don’t think we get a finish here unless AY dives into a submission. Roberts could be a backup option but for me, I will pass.
Jessica-Rose Clark -101 vs Pannie Kianzad -105
This is a rematch of a 2015 fight and I don’t feel like we have seen that much of a change out of either girl. Kianzad will go to her wrestling and hold top control. Clark will work off her back, but not do enough to get up or win rounds. Pannie is desperate for a win and she will go back to the advantages that got her the first win. Gold play for Pannie.
Pannie might not get a finish, but the takedowns will be there. Look for her to secure 3-5 takedowns and put up some decent striking totals over 3 rounds. At $8000, she helps us to buy other big price tickets.
Davey Grant +155 vs Grigorii Popov -165
Popov’s record coming in did not look good and his performance in a fight that should have been his style wasn’t much better. Grant needs to get on the grappling attack early and often. I think he will. Popov is only 0-1 so the line makers are still looking at him as a fighter capable of winning at this level. I am not sold. Bronze play for the road dog.
I have Grant in my lineup. Popov has had issues on the mat and Grant is a known finisher on the floor with an easy to eat price tag. We can basically afford anyone we want with Grant in the game. Add him.
Confidence List
1. Pannie Kianzad -105
2. Zabit Magomedsharipov -275
3. Alexander Volkov -255
4. Magomed Ankalaev -390
5. Anthony Rocco Martin +116
====================
6. Roosevelt Roberts -138
7. Rustam Khabilov -189
8. Abubakar Nurmagomedov -285
9. Khadis Ibragimov -137
10. Shamil Gamzatov -170
11. Roman Kopylov -105
12. Zelim Imadaev -205
13. Davey Grant +155
Value Bet List
1. Anthony Rocco Martin +116
2. Pannie Kianzad -105
3. Davey Grant +155
4. Roman Kopylov -105
5. Roosevelt Roberts -138
Counter Bets
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Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
C. Daniel Cormier
#1 Jon Jones
EPU Candidate(s)
1. Jessica-Rose Clark/Pannie Kianzad
This is a rematch and we have seen rematches end quickly after the first fight was a grind. I don’t think that will be the case here. I won’t post it officially because I want the win any way I can get it, but I feel Pannie on the cards is a play worth looking at.
2. Davey Grant to Win by Submission +650
Grant has won the majority of his fights via submission. Popov has had issues defending the takedown and if Grant can take you down, he has a good chance to tap you out. At this price, you have to take a shot here.
| EPU | ||||
| 47 | 24 | 23 | 51% | |
| 55 | 31 | 24 | 56% | |
| 47 | 20 | 27 | 43% | |
| 42 | 25 | 17 | 60% | |
| 32 | 13 | 19 | 41% | |
| 23 | 8 | 15 | 35% | |
FPO Candidate
1. Magomed Ankalaev to Win by Decision +230
Ankalaev has trended towards decision wins in his UFC run, at least so far. He went the distance in his last fight and appeared to be on route to a decision win against Craig. The finishing size of Ankalaev might return at home, but I see him taking home a win on the cards against a dangerous opponent that he will want to limit.
| Final Prelim | ||||
| 46 | ||||
| 36 | 16 | 20 | 44% | |
| 39 | 26 | 13 | 67% | |
| 34 | 25 | 9 | 74% | |
| 33 | 22 | 11 | 67% | |
| 38 | 23 | 15 | 61% | |
| 19 | 11 | 8 | 58% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 35 | 17 | 18 | 49% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 31 | 13 | 18 | 42% | |
| 30 | 9 | 21 | 30% | |
| 10 | 4 | 6 | 40% |
HEF Candidate(s)
1. Ed Herman +125 vs Khadis Ibragimov -137
2. Ramazan Emeev -120 vs Anthony Rocco Martin +116
3. Roman Kopylov -105 vs Karl Roberson +100
4. Roosevelt Roberts -138 vs Alexander Yakovlev +130
5. Jessica-Rose Clark -101 vs Pannie Kianzad -105
6. Davey Grant +155 vs Grigorii Popov -165
| HEFs | ||||
| 177 | 93 | 84 | 53% | |
| 212 | 106 | 106 | 50% | |
| 179 | 110 | 69 | 61% | |
| 192 | 100 | 92 | 52% | |
| 217 | 100 | 117 | 46% | |
| 102 | 52 | 50 | 51% | |
| 181 | 97 | 84 | 54% | |
| 212 | 108 | 104 | 51% | |
| 179 | 87 | 92 | 49% | |
| 192 | 95 | 97 | 49% | |
| 211 | 110 | 101 | 52% | |
| 102 | 46 | 56 | 45% |
Prop Bets
Magomed Ankalaev/Dalcha Lungiambula
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Rustam Khabilov to Win by Decision +125
Khabilov is far from entertaining and loves a good grind. His takedown heavy attack combined with his foe’s issues on the mat leads me to believe that we will see the scorecards with Rustam coming out on top. Bet it.
Jessica-Rose Clark/Pannie KianzadSee the Betting Scenario Section.
Davey Grant/Grigorii Popov
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.
