UFC Fight Night 163: Zabit vs Kattar | Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Night 163: Zabit vs Kattar | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Zabit Magomedsharipov to Win  -275
+ Pannie Kianzad  to Win -105
ODDS: +166
BET: 10u
RETURN: 26.62u

 

BET #2
+ Rocco Martin  to Win +116
+ Rustam Khabilov  to Win -189
ODDS: +230
BET: 8u
RETURN: 26.42

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Alexander Volkov  to Win -255
+ Roosevelt Roberts  to Win -138
ODDS: +140
BET: 7u
RETURN: 16.81u

 

BET #2
+ Khadis Ibragimov  to Win -137
+ Shamil Gamzatov  to Win -170
ODDS: +175
BET: 7u
RETURN: 19.23u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Davey Grant  to Win +155
ODDS: +155
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12.75u

 

BET #2
+ Roman Kopylov to Win  -105
+ Zelim Imadaev  to Win -205
+ Abubakar Nurmagomedov  to Win -285
ODDS: +292
BET: 5u
RETURN: 19.62u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Davey Grant  to Win by Submission +650
ODDS: +650
BET: 4u
RETURN: 30u

 

BET #2
+ Rustam Khabilov  to Win by Decision +125
+ Magomed Ankalaev  to Win by Decision +230
ODDS: +643
BET: 4u
RETURN: 29.7u

BET #1
+ Roosevelt Roberts  to Win -138
+ Pannie Kianzad  to Win -105
+ Roman Kopylov to Win  -105
+ Rocco Martin  to Win +116
ODDS: +1320
BET: 4u
RETURN: 56.8u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Zabit Magomedsharipov to Win  -275
+ Pannie Kianzad  to Win -105
+ Rocco Martin  to Win +116
ODDS: +475
BET: 10u
RETURN: 57.51u

BET #2
+ Zabit Magomedsharipov to Win  -275
+ Pannie Kianzad  to Win -105
+ Rustam Khabilov  to Win -189
ODDS: +307
BET: 8u
RETURN: 32.57u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Khadis Ibragimov  to Win -137
+ Shamil Gamzatov  to Win -170
+ Roosevelt Roberts  to Win -138
ODDS: +374
BET: 7u
RETURN: 33.17u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Roman Kopylov to Win  -105
+ Zelim Imadaev  to Win -205
+ Abubakar Nurmagomedov  to Win -285
+ Davey Grant  to Win +155
ODDS: +901
BET: 5u
RETURN: 50.03u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Pannie Kianzad  to Win -105
+ Roosevelt Roberts  to Win -138
+ Magomed Ankalaev  to Win by Decision +230
ODDS: +1011
BET: 4u
RETURN: 44.45u

BET #2
+ Rustam Khabilov  to Win by Decision +125
+ Davey Grant  to Win by Submission +650
+ Zabit Magomedsharipov to Win  -275
ODDS: +2201
BET: 4u
RETURN: 92.05u

BET #3
+ Khadis Ibragimov  to Win -137
+ Shamil Gamzatov  to Win -170
+ Roman Kopylov to Win  -105
+ Zelim Imadaev  to Win -205
ODDS: +436
BET: 6u
RETURN: 32.19u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Zelim Imadaev $8800
+ Rocco Martin $7800
+ Pannie Kianzad $8000
+ Davey Grant  $7200
+ Khadis Ibragimov $8700
+ Alexander Volkov $9200

Spares

+ Roman Kopylov $8300
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Zabit Magomedsharipov -275 vs Calvin Kattar +255

The change in venue is not a great deal for Kattar, but if he pulls it out that makes the win even more significant. We have seen some movement on Zabit, but we are still getting a solid price. Zabit is closing in on -300 on a couple of sites, but if you shop around you can get a solid price. Kattar has looked good in most of his fights, Zabit is just another animal and fighting in Russia makes this even more difficult for the American. Gold Play for Zabit, most likely paired with Pannie in HBC Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Zabit misses out on the Fantasy lineup on the basis of a tough opponent. Pass.

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Greg Hardy +235 vs Alexander Volkov -255

This fight has come together in a relatively short time with Volkov opening around -175. There is one factor here that is preventing Volkov from becoming too heavy a fav- the flash knockout. If Hardy can come over the top (Similar to Lewis) he could stop Volkov. I feel like this is way too much, too soon for the former NFLer. Volkov will keep him on the outside and pick away at him for a wide decision or stoppage win. I like Volkov as a complimentary pick in the Silver section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I am willing to take Volkov here. I think he can get a stoppage against Hardy who taking a massive step up in competition with no time to prep and heading on the road to a hostile environment. Volkov has great potential to get him out of there.

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Zelim Imadaev -205 vs Danny Roberts +200

Robert’s diminishing durability has to be a major concern in any of his fights. I simply don’t trust him against a fighter that has enough power to get him out of there and is motivated by fighting at home. That being said, the return on Imadaev is not that great either. I will toss Zelim into my Bronze section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

The lack of durability from Roberts makes Imadaev an easy inclusion here. Add him.

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Ed Herman +125 vs Khadis Ibragimov -137

Here is a line that is a little more playable. Ibragimov didn’t look great at the end of the fight, but he was arguably winning it right up until the finish. He opened around -175 which tells me we are getting a decent return with the recent movement heading in our direction. Herman is a crafty veteran, but he will be hardpressed to survive this battle. Solid Silver play for Khadis.

Draft-Kings-Logo

With the mounting finishes on his record, Herman is a fadable candidate for your fantasy team. Add Ibragimov.

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Ramazan Emeev -120 vs Anthony Rocco Martin +116

Going against Russians in Russia is always a top proposition. This is just 1 of 3 fights on the card that I elected to make that choice. I like Martin. I picked Maia, but I felt Martin accounted for himself quite well. Emeev’s 3 wins have been decent, but not overwhelming. His stats suggest it would not take a big push back to overcome him here. Martin will make the ground game undesirable and outwork him on the feet. This stands to be a close fight and could produce a frustrating decision, but I like the American here. Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Martin has shown he can finish both on the feet and on the mat. He is also a slight dog which makes him quite affordable. Add him.

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Klidson Abreu +160 vs Shamil Gamzatov -170

I am seeing a lot of people backing Abreu here. I understand where they are coming from. That being said, I think this will be a bad spot for him on the road. I like Gamzatov’s more conservative attack to limit Abreu’s openings to get his BJJ involved. Shamil opened around -270 and has steadily improved in price which is indicative of the support for Abreu. Silver play for Shamil.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Abreu has shown he is a tough out and Gamzatov has been taking a lot of fights to the cards. Pass.

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Magomed Ankalaev -390 vs Dalcha Lungiambula +355

No play here. Ankalaev should win, but Dalcha is enough of a threat to make this already unappealing price easy to overlook. Pass

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing doing here. Ankalaev has been grinding towards low volumes decisions in most of his UFC fights and he is too expensive for that result. Pass.

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Rustam Khabilov -189 vs Sergey Khandozhko +175

Khabilov is going up to WW. I hope that makes him more active and willing to engage. Khandozhko is susceptible to takedowns and that is something that Khabilov still does well. Khabilov will secure takedowns and hold top control in a rather dull but successful performance. Gold play for Tiger.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I am looking at a grinding decision here, not the ideal Fantasy play. Pass.

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Roman Kopylov -105 vs Karl Roberson +100

I went back and forth on this one. I find it interesting that most of Roberson’s success has gone down on the mat. He could look for something similar here. Kopylov is pretty sound defensively and offers solid striking skills. I have read some very positive reports on him and footage showcases a capable fighter. In a close battle like this let’s take the home factor. We are getting a great return here with Kopylov close to -200 at its initial open. I considered a Silver play here, but I like Roman as the key factor in my Bronze plays.

Draft-Kings-Logo

With Kobylov’s history of finishes and manageable price, lets add him in as a spare to create some nice variety.

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Abubakar Nurmagomedov -285 vs David Zawada +275 

I was borderline on not play Nurmagomedov. I feel like the UFC is giving him a winnable fight at home. Zawada is feisty and needs a win or it could be all over for his UFC tenure. The line is climbing against us, he is either a complimentary Bronze play or nothing at all.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Pass here. Grinding, top position decision with limit point potential.

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Roosevelt Roberts -138 vs Alexander Yakovlev +130

This is a big fight for Roberts. Getting upset in his last outing for the first loss of his career should be a motivating factor. I picked Yaks in his last fight and was not impressed with his performance despite getting the win. I think Roberts can stay active and outwork him everywhere. The price on RR is getting better. I like him as a strong Silver play here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I don’t think we get a finish here unless AY dives into a submission. Roberts could be a backup option but for me, I will pass.

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Jessica-Rose Clark -101 vs Pannie Kianzad -105

This is a rematch of a 2015 fight and I don’t feel like we have seen that much of a change out of either girl. Kianzad will go to her wrestling and hold top control. Clark will work off her back, but not do enough to get up or win rounds. Pannie is desperate for a win and she will go back to the advantages that got her the first win. Gold play for Pannie.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Pannie might not get a finish, but the takedowns will be there. Look for her to secure 3-5 takedowns and put up some decent striking totals over 3 rounds. At $8000, she helps us to buy other big price tickets.

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Davey Grant +155 vs Grigorii Popov -165

Popov’s record coming in did not look good and his performance in a fight that should have been his style wasn’t much better. Grant needs to get on the grappling attack early and often. I think he will. Popov is only 0-1 so the line makers are still looking at him as a fighter capable of winning at this level. I am not sold. Bronze play for the road dog.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Grant in my lineup. Popov has had issues on the mat and Grant is a known finisher on the floor with an easy to eat price tag. We can basically afford anyone we want with Grant in the game. Add him.

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Confidence List

1. Pannie Kianzad -105

2. Zabit Magomedsharipov -275

3. Alexander Volkov -255

4. Magomed Ankalaev -390

5. Anthony Rocco Martin +116

====================

6. Roosevelt Roberts -138

7. Rustam Khabilov -189

8. Abubakar Nurmagomedov -285

9.  Khadis Ibragimov -137

10. Shamil Gamzatov -170

11. Roman Kopylov -105

12. Zelim Imadaev -205

13. Davey Grant +155

 

Value Bet List

1. Anthony Rocco Martin +116

2. Pannie Kianzad -105

3. Davey Grant +155

4. Roman Kopylov -105

5. Roosevelt Roberts -138

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Jessica-Rose Clark/Pannie Kianzad

This is a rematch and we have seen rematches end quickly after the first fight was a grind. I don’t think that will be the case here. I won’t post it officially because I want the win any way I can get it, but I feel Pannie on the cards is a play worth looking at.

2. Davey Grant to Win by Submission +650

Grant has won the majority of his fights via submission. Popov has had issues defending the takedown and if Grant can take you down, he has a good chance to tap you out. At this price, you have to take a shot here.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
43
13 of 34 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
28111739%

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FPO Candidate

1. Magomed Ankalaev to Win by Decision +230

Ankalaev has trended towards decision wins in his UFC run, at least so far. He went the distance in his last fight and appeared to be on route to a decision win against Craig. The finishing size of Ankalaev might return at home, but I see him taking home a win on the cards against a dangerous opponent that he will want to limit.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
33211264%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2691735%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Ed Herman +125 vs Khadis Ibragimov -137

2. Ramazan Emeev -120 vs Anthony Rocco Martin +116

3. Roman Kopylov -105 vs Karl Roberson +100

4. Roosevelt Roberts -138 vs Alexander Yakovlev +130

5. Jessica-Rose Clark -101 vs Pannie Kianzad -105

6. Davey Grant +155 vs Grigorii Popov -165

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
190919948%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
185929350%

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Prop Bets

Magomed Ankalaev/Dalcha Lungiambula

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Rustam Khabilov to Win by Decision +125

Khabilov is far from entertaining and loves a good grind. His takedown heavy attack combined with his foe’s issues on the mat leads me to believe that we will see the scorecards with Rustam coming out on top. Bet it.

Jessica-Rose Clark/Pannie Kianzad

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Davey Grant/Grigorii Popov

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

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