UFC FIGHT NIGHT 161: JEDRZEJCZYK VS WATERSON | Bet Pack Review

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 161: JEDRZEJCZYK VS WATERSON | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

 

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Gerald Meerschaert  to Win +140
ODDS: +140
BET: 9u
RETURN: 21.6u

 

BET #2
+ Marlon Vera   to Win -163
+ J.J. Aldrich   to Win -170
ODDS: +156
BET: 7u
RETURN: 17.94u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Deiveson Figueiredo   to Win -188
+ Max Griffin   to Win -150
ODDS: +155
BET: 6u
RETURN: 15.32u

 

BET #2
+ Amanda Ribas   to Win +110
+ Niko Price   to Win -150
ODDS: +250
BET: 5u
RETURN: 17.5u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Devin Clark   to Win +125
ODDS: +125
BET: 3u
RETURN: 6.75

 

BET #2
+ Cub Swanson  to Win +137
ODDS: +137
BET: 3u
RETURN: 7.11u

 

BET #3
+ Matt Frevola   to Win +140
ODDS: +140
BET: 3u
RETURN: 7.2u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Joanna Jedrzejczyk  to Win by Decision -135
+ J.J. Aldrich  to Win by Decision -107
ODDS: +237
BET: 4u
RETURN: 13.47u

 

BET #2
+ Devin Clark  to Win by Decision +326
ODDS: +326
BET: 3u
RETURN: 12.78u

BET #2
+ Marlon Vera  to Win -163
+ Max Griffin  to Win -150
+ Gerald Meerschaert  to Win +140
ODDS: +545
BET: 4u
RETURN: 25.82u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Marlon Vera   to Win -163
+ J.J. Aldrich   to Win -170
+ Gerald Meerschaert  to Win +140
ODDS: +515
BET: 10u
RETURN: 61.5u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Deiveson Figueiredo   to Win -188
+ Max Griffin   to Win -150
+ J.J. Aldrich   to Win -170
ODDS: +306
BET: 7u
RETURN: 28.39u

 

BET #2
+ Amanda Ribas   to Win +110
+ Niko Price   to Win -150
+ Gerald Meerschaert   to Win +140
ODDS: +740
BET: 7u
RETURN: 58.8u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Devin Clark   to Win +125
+ Cub Swanson  to Win +137
+ Matt Frevola   to Win +140
ODDS: +1180
BET: 5u
RETURN: 63.99u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Devin Clark  to Win by Decision +326
+ Amanda Ribas  to Win +110
+ Marlon Vera  to Win -163
ODDS: +1343
BET: 4u
RETURN: 57.74u

BET #2
+ Joanna Jedrzejczyk  to Win by Decision -135
+ J.J. Aldrich  to Win by Decision -107
+ Marvin Vettori  to Win by Decision -130
ODDS: +496
BET: 4u
RETURN: 23.83u

BET #3
+ Gerald Meerschaert  to Win +140
+ Max Griffin  to Win -150
+ Matt Frevola  to Win +140
+ Joanna Jedrzejczyk  to Win by Decision -135
ODDS: +1571
BET: 6u
RETURN: 100.27u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Niko Price $8400
+ Amanda Ribas $7900
+ Gerald Meerschaert $7700
+ Marlon Vera $9100
+ Matt Frevola $7200
+ Joanna Jedrzejczyk $9200

Spares

+ Max Griffin $8200
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Joanna Jedrzejczyk -350 vs Michelle Waterson +275

I can leave this one off the bet cards with so many other options. I will look at the prop options that we have available too us, but for now, this one is a no play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do have JJ in my Fantasy lineup. She will have 5 rounds to put up volume or score a finish. Maybe both. Waterson is tough, but that could work in our favour if JJ can go off without getting hurt. I like her. Took some dogs to get here. Add her.

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Kron Gracie -163 vs Cub Swanson +137

I looked at Kron and something kept eating at me. It just seems like too much, too soon. Cub has lost 4 in a row against top competition. He is in desperation mode. He has fought well when he needs a win. The line is coming down after originally opening around +185. That tells me there is a lot of money coming in on Swanson. I like Gracie, but he still remains untested at the MMA level while Cub has faced almost everyone who is anyone. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Cub has power and will want to turn this into a brawl. He could get a stoppage or he could compile a decent total against a tiring foe. With his low cost, we can add a bigger play (see above). Add him

****Update- Matt Frevola in, Cub out. Look for Frevola to score with takedowns.***

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Niko Price -150 vs James Vick +125

This fight got bumped up from the prelims and it certainly deserves it. We have a lot of unknowns with regard to Vick. Most importantly, will the lack of a weight cut make him more durable? And How will his lack of size advantage impact his overall performance? Either way- I like Price. I expect him to make it a dirty fight. Get in Vick’s face and test his durability. I was looking at Price as a Gold play, but with the unknown info surround Vick, I will cut this back to a solid Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

With Vick’s history of stoppage defeats and Price history of stopping all of his opponents, this is an easy add for my team. When you consider he is only going to cost you $8400- the Price is right 😉 Add him.

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Mackenzie Dern -138 vs Amanda Ribas +110

Dern opened around -245 and has steadily increased in value. She did make weight which is huge but we don’t know to what extent that compromised her. I’m sure she was very determined to get in under the limit to prove her critics wrong. I like Ribas here. Yoder gave MD a lot of issue and Ribas appears more capable of stuffing the TDs. I feel like Dern’s striking was clunky at best and if Ribas can survive the early push, she should take over. I like her in a strong Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Ribas gets the nod as well. She sits down on her punches and if Dern fades we could see her vulnerable to a positional finish with Ribas hurting her on the cage or on the floor if Dern is unable to fight back. Add her.

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Matt Frevola +140 vs Luis Pena -163

The interesting lines just keep on rolling. Frevola is a think wrestling that is capable of brawling. Pena is lanky, but at LW he isn’t nearly as big or long. Pena gives up a lot of takedowns and that is what Frevola will be looking for. Pena certainly is the trendy play, but Matt will bring a workmanlike effort to this fight and simply do more that Violent Bob Ross. Take Frevola in a gritty Bronze play that would probably be a Silver option on most cards.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I opted to swap out Swanson for Frevola. Matt might not be able to finish, if he does it will be by sub, but more importantly, his TD volume will score some serious points here. Add him

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Eryk Anders -170 vs Gerald Meerschaert +140

I like this play. Beyond being able to knockout KO-prone opponents, Anders isn’t anything special Meerschaert is a gritty veteran with a dangerous grappling game. His ability to pull non-grapplers into ground-based attacks is impressive. He has also overcome fighters that are better skilled on the mat than Anders. This was a near even open with GM3 around +110 on some books. He has some nice value and I feel he should actually be favoured. Gold play for a very live dog.

Draft-Kings-Logo

At $7700 with his finishing skills, he is an easy addition to your lineup. Save the characters.

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Devin Clark +125 vs Ryan Spann -150

Our final fight of the undercard comes down to whether or no Spann is legit. If he is, he has the tools to win this. If not, Clark will outwork him. Clark knows how to grind against lesser opposition and Spann has struggled out of the first round. We aren’t getting the value here that we got at the open, but this is a good looking Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

No play here. Looking for a possible decision with a slow grinding pace. Pass.

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Max Griffin -150 vs Alex Morono +125

Morono is just too willing to be exciting and it works against him in some fights. He is wild and open and forgoes an entire aspect of his off- his grappling. Griffin is more technical, hits harder, and will score takedowns where needed. I feel like Griffin has more avenues to victory and he should be able to overcome almost anything that Morono throws at him unless Max has a huge conditioning failure. Big Silver play for Max.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Griffin is a spare here. Between takedowns and the potential to score a finish, Max is a player worth investing in. Sub with Ribas or Price to create some diversity.

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Tim Elliott +162 vs Deiveson Figueiredo -188

Elliott can be a handful for most. The layoff could impact that and DF is pretty damn physical himself. He will also punish Elliott for his willingness to take damage. You can get away with it against most FLW, but not this guy. I like DF here, but not enough to go all in. Silver play for the Brazilian.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Elliott is pretty darn durable. That could pose a problem for getting the finish. It is not worth the risk at $9400. Pass.

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Hector Aldana +175 vs Miguel Baeza -210

Lot’s of known here. It should be a fun scrap. It is not worth risking anything when we already have so many other options. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

At $9400, Baeza is an easy pass for me. Too expensive for a debuting fighter.

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Mike Davis -290 vs Thomas Gifford +260

Coming in on late notice at nearly -300 in your second UFC fight. That is all kinds of wrong for us. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

We have better options elsewhere. Let it go.

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Andrew Sanchez +275 vs Marvin Vettori -350

This is a fight that got moved from an early spot. I had Vettori then and I have him now, but with so many betting options we can simply leave this one alone and put our money elsewhere. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Sanchez can be finished, but Vettori isn’t known for stopping guys. If he couldn’t get Ferreira out of there, this one could see the cards as well. Pass.

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Andre Ewell +150 vs Marlon Vera -163

I love Vera here. He can strike with Ewell, but more importantly, he should dominate him on the mat. Ewell has been taken down in all of his UFC fights and if Vera gets him on the mat, look for Chito to go to work with transitions until he gets the tap. My only concern here is that Ewell hurts him early or is able to drag Vera into a striking battle and away from a clear strength. Opening around -195, Vera is on the move in the right way for our angle. Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

We are looking for an early finish here and if Vera gets his submission game going, we should get. A solid start to our team. Add him.

J.J. Aldrich -170 vs Lauren Mueller +140

Opening the card with back to back Gold plays is almost unheard of- but I can’t pass on Aldrich. Mueller’s best win has come over a 3-3 opponent with the rest of her victims yet to hold a pro-MMA win. That is not good. Aldrich was looking good against Barber and should find success against a lesser brawler with few skills. Opening at -230 was more accurate. The move in our favour comes after JJ got stopped in her last fight and bettors are keying on that. Aldrich outworks her for the duration. Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I am not expecting a finish here so I think we can bypass this fight. I do like the fact that Aldrich is costing us nearly $9000 which tells us where the line should have been set.

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Confidence List

1.  Joanna Jedrzejczyk -350

2. J.J. Aldrich -170

3. Marvin Vettori -350

4. Marlon Vera -163

5. Gerald Meerschaert +140

====================

6. Max Griffin -150

7. Niko Price -150

8. Deiveson Figueiredo -188

9. Mike Davis -290

10. Miguel Baeza -210

11. Amanda Ribas +110

12. Matt Frevola +140

13. Devin Clark +125

14. Cub Swanson +137

 

Value Bet List

1. Gerald Meerschaert +140

2. Amanda Ribas +110

3. Matt Frevola +140

4. Devin Clark +125

5. Cub Swanson +137

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Marvin Vettori to Win by Decision -130

After a finish in his debut, Vettori has seen the cards in 5 straight fights and 7 overall. My big concern here is if Sanchez fades, he could get finished. Nonetheless, if you want in on this fight- this is your best option.

2. J.J. Aldrich to Win by Decision -107

Aldrich sat Baber down, but she has just 2 stoppages from early in her career compared to 5 wins on the scorecards. It bucks the trend of early finishes for the EPU, but I think we see a couple of decisions here.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
44
14 of 35 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
29111838%

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FPO Candidate

1. Devin Clark to WIn by Decision +326

Clark needs to weaponize time here. Make this fight drag into the latter stages and force Spann into a scenario that he is not comfortable with. At this price and recognizing the consistency of the play- this is worth a shot.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
34211362%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2791833%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Kron Gracie -163 vs Cub Swanson +137

2. Niko Price -150 vs James Vick +125

3. Mackenzie Dern -138 vs Amanda Ribas +110

4. Matt Frevola +140 vs Luis Pena -163

5. Devin Clark +125 vs Ryan Spann -150

6. Max Griffin -150 vs Alex Morono +125

7. Andre Ewell +150 vs Marlon Vera -163

8. J.J. Aldrich -170 vs Lauren Mueller +140

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
1969310347%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
191969550%

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Prop Bets

Joanna Jedrzejczyk to Win by Decision -135

JJ is a killer, but she has not finished an opponent since 2015’s destruction of Jessica Penne. With the weight cut issues, I don’t expect to see her coming out looking to blast Waterson early. She will need to be tempered with her approach. Additionally, Waterson has only been finished with strikes once and it was early in her career- she should be able to hold up.

Devin Clark/Ryan Spann

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Marvin Vettori/Andrew Sanchez

See the Betting Scenario Section.

J.J. Aldrich/Lauren Mueller

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

 

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