UFC Fight Night 160: Hermansson vs Cannonier | Bet Pack Review
Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack
Parlays & Single Bets
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Khalil Rountree | to Win | -120 |  |
| + Jack Hermansson | to Win | -245 | |
| ODDS: | +158 | ||
| BET: | 8 | ||
| RETURN: | 20.65 |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Alen Amedovski | to Win | -120 | |
| + Michal Oleksiejczuk | to Win | -235 | |
| ODDS: | +161 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 20.91u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Alessio Di Chirico | to Win | +130 | |
| ODDS: | +130 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 9.2u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Brandon Davis | to Win | -155 | |
| + Gunnar Nelson | to Win | +100 | |
| ODDS: | +229 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 16.45u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Nicolas Dalby | to Win | +120 |  |
| ODDS: | +120 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 6.6u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Lando Vannata | to Win | +130 | |
| + Nohelin Hernandez | to Win | +145 | |
| ODDS: | +464 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 22.54u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Alen Amedovski | to Win by Knockout | +280 | |
| ODDS: | +280 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 11.4u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Macy Chiasson | to Win Inside the Distance | -120 | |
| + Jack Hermansson | to Win Inside the Distance | -140 | |
| ODDS: | +214 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 9.43u |
| BET #3 | |||
| + Michal Oleksiejczuk | to Win by TKO/KO | -105 | |
| + Brandon Davis | to Win | -155 | |
| + Khalil Rountree | to Win | -120 | |
| ODDS: | +489 | ||
| BET: | 3u | ||
| RETURN: | 17.67u |
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Khalil Rountree | to Win | -120 | |
| + Jack Hermansson | to Win | -245 | |
| + Alen Amedovski | to Win | -120 | |
| ODDS: | +373 | ||
| BET: | 10u | ||
| RETURN: | 47.33u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Alen Amedovski | to Win | -120 | |
| + Michal Oleksiejczuk | to Win | -235 | |
| + Khalil Rountree | to Win | -120 | |
| ODDS: | +379 | ||
| BET: | 10u | ||
| RETURN: | 47.91u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Brandon Davis | to Win | -155 | |
| + Alessio Di Chirico | to Win | +130 | |
| + Gunnar Nelson | to Win | +100 | |
| ODDS: | +657 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 45.41u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Lando Vannata | to Win | +130 | |
| + Nohelin Hernandez | to Win | +145 | |
| + Nicolas Dalby | to Win | +120 | |
| ODDS: | +1140 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 61.99u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Alen Amedovski | to Win | -120 | |
| + Gunnar Nelson | to Win | +100 | |
| + Lando Vannata | to Win | +130 | |
| + Alessio Di Chirico | to Win | +130 | |
| ODDS: | +1840 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 77.59u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Macy Chiasson | to Win Inside the Distance | -120 | |
| + Jack Hermansson | to Win Inside the Distance | -140 | |
| + Alen Amedovski | to Win by Knockout | +280 | |
| ODDS: | +1094 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 47.77u |
| BET #3 | |||
| + Michal Oleksiejczuk | to Win by TKO/KO | -105 | |
| + Brandon Davis | to Win | -155 | |
| + Khalil Rountree | to Win | -120 | |
| ODDS: | +489 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 23.55 |
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
| + Khalil Rountree | $8400 | |
| + Nicolas Dalby | $7400 | |
| + Alen Amedovski | $8200 | |
| + Lando Vannata | $7700 | |
| + Jack Hermansson | $9200 | |
| + Michal Oleksiejczuk | $9100 | |
Spares
| + | |
| + | |
| + | |
| + |
Betting Breakdowns
Jack Hermansson -245 vs Jared Cannonier +205
A title shot might not be on the line, but this bout is huge for both men’s title aspirations. Hermansson isn’t quite returning the value that he opened at, but stylistically he is a tough fight for Cannonier. I feel like he is a solid add for the Gold play, augmenting one of my higher-paying options in the HBC.
Hermansson has shown he can finish and over 5 rounds the combination of takedowns and volume should produce a lot of points. I think he is a solid addition to your lineup. Please do so.
Danilo Belluardo +500 vs Mark Madsen -700
This is an easy No play for me. The line is out of wack and we don’t know enough about either man at this level. Let it go.
Same here. We could get a finish or we could get a grinding decision win. Neither is overly awesome for the price. Pass.
Gilbert Burns -120 vs Gunnar Nelson +100
This stands to be a close fight with both men sharing a lot of similarities. Nelson was the favorite early, around -130, so the line has moved in our favour. I feel like back to back fights so close together in addition to the travel won’t work well for Burns. He has slowed before in fights and that slowdown might be magnified here. Nelson might not win the first frame, but look for him to take over after that. Gunnar is better on the feet and his mat game moves ahead once his cardio edge takes over. Add in the homefield advantage and he is a solid dog play. One of my top Silver plays of the night.
Nelson also gets the call here. He is affordable and can finish with his hands or possibly even get a sub if/when Burns gasses out. The volume factor is a bit concerning, so we are going all-in on a finish. Add him.
***Update- I swapped Nelson our Rountree after realizing the math worked.***
Ion Cutelaba +100 vs Khalil Rountree -120
This could be a close fight for a round. If Rountree’s improved striking technique and subsequently improved cardio show up like the Anders fight, Cutelaba is going to be in trouble in rounds 2 and 3. Ion is not nearly as dangerous as the number suggest and it takes a dive after round 1. If he gets his wrestling going, that could be a concern, but it could also further compromise his cardio. I like Rountree as a solid Gold play. Most likely pairing him with one of Hermansson or Oleksiejczuk in the HBC.
Cutelaba is tough as nails, but Rountree hits pretty hard and knows how to finish. I feel like he is better priced at $87-8800 so we are getting a deal here. Add him
Michal Oleksiejczuk -235 vs Ovince Saint Preux +195
Oleksiejczuk doesn’t have a big name, but stylistically he is a tough fight for OSP. This fight jumped off the card at me when I first saw it and I really like him at anything under -275. OSP has a very limited window to win this fight while Oleksiejczuk can do it in multiple ways. Similar to Hermansson, Oleksiejczuk is a solid Gold play as an addition to a well-paying favourite.
I like the volume of Oleksiejczuk. I like his finishing skills. I also like how OSP’s cardio normally fades and how his chin is far from iron-clad. I think this is a good add. So add him.
Nicolas Dalby +120 vs Alex Oliveira -140
As I mentioned in my breakdown, I feel like the edge of Dalby fighting at home (13-0) is huge. He has dropped a little bit of value, but he is still worth a solid play. Oliveira is too wild and his cardio will drop off fighting so far away from home. Further, Dalby will be extra sharp in Denmark and returning to the UFC. He edges this one out. Could be close, but still like the hometown fighter. Bronze play.
I think Dalby could get a finish by overwhelming Oliveira. Between takedowns and decent volume, he will score some points in a decision and his low price tag gives us a world of potential elsewhere. Add him.
Alen Amedovski -120 vs John Phillips +100
At this point, Phillips is an automatic fade. Marshman gave him the fight he wanted and he dropped it. I felt he could have got the nod, but he still needed to be more definitive. Amedovski is younger, more aggressive and more technically sound. He could even slip a takedown in against a grappling deficient opponent. He opened at -190, this is a very good price against a fighter that is on his way out of the UFC. Gold play for Amedovski.
With his finishing background, we are getting a solid deal at $8200. He won’t have to worry about takedowns from Phillips which will further allow him to commit to his striking. Add him.
Alessio Di Chirico +130 vs Makhmud Muradov -150
It looks like this fight is the biggest line swing of any. Di Chirico opened around -230 and has steadily improved in value. Muradov is talented, but I feel like his style might not translate well to the top level of competition. Di Chirico is the more consistent fighter and will keep pushing as the fight advance. I like the style matchup to edge it for Di Chirico, but the value by itself makes it worthwhile. Silver.
Di Chirico hasn’t shown a consistent finishing touch. Pass.
Siyar Bahadurzada +170 vs Ismail Naurdiev -200
I feel like this is a good fight to avoid. I am not a huge fan of Bahadurzada and Naurdiev is still unproven. Pass.
Pass.
Giga Chikadze +135 vs Brandon Davis -155
Giga is a Gladiator product. That is a massive red flag. Any fighter that he has faced with more than 2 career wins has beat him. Davis isn’t a natural ground fighter, but he showed it against Costa. He will do it again here. Davis will either take Giga down and/or drag him into deep water where he isn’t used to being. Davis is a solid Silver play against an untested opponent.
I think Davis can get the finish here, but at $8700 I feel we have better options.
Macy Chiasson -450 vs Lina Lansberg +350
I will look at the prop bet here, but this is a no play on Chiasson straight up.
Chiasson is super expensive, even though I expect a finish I can’t pay for her.
Marc Diakiese -150 vs Lando Vannata +130
This was nearly a pick’em fight at the start. I’m not sold on Diakiese after strong but potentially 1 off performance. Duffy was gone for a long time before that fight and seemed a little off. Vannata’s ability to flow between striking and wrestling is the key here. I think he will spend some key on top that will gas Diakiese out and allow him to take this fight over. Both guys have put together poor performances in recent fights- Bronze play for Lando.
Lando can submit Diakiese or he can score a knockout. He is also pretty active striker that could combine takedowns and striking to put up some decent points. Add him.
Nohelin Hernandez +145 vs Jack Shore -165
I was impressed with Hernandez in his short-notice debut against Vera. Shore is a decent fighter, but he is hittable and I feel like the speed and technical edge with lie with Hernandez. With 2 unknowns, I favour the guy that already has his debut under his belt and is in a better spot this time around. Bronze play.
Nothing here.
Confidence List
1. Macy Chiasson -450
2. Jack Hermansson -245
3. Michal Oleksiejczuk -235
4. Brandon Davis -155
5. Khalil Rountree -120
====================
6. Alen Amedovski -120
7. Mark Madsen -700
8. Gunnar Nelson +100
9. Ismail Naurdiev -200
10. Lando Vannata +130
11. Alessio Di Chirico +130
12. Nicolas Dalby +120
13. Nohelin Hernandez +145
Value Bet List
1. Gunnar Nelson +100
2. Lando Vannata +130
3. Alessio Di Chirico +130
4. Nohelin Hernandez +145
5. Nicolas Dalby +120
Counter Bets
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5.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
C. Daniel Cormier
#1 Jon Jones
EPU Candidate(s)
1. Marc Diakiese/Lando Vannata
I could see a finish or I could see this going the distance. I don’t have enough of a lean either way to back it.
2. Nohelin Hernandez/Jack Shore
A similar approach here. I like the dog and I will take him any way I can get it. Pass.
| EPU | ||||
| 47 | 24 | 23 | 51% | |
| 55 | 31 | 24 | 56% | |
| 47 | 20 | 27 | 43% | |
| 42 | 25 | 17 | 60% | |
| 32 | 13 | 19 | 41% | |
| 11 | 2 | 9 | 18% | |
FPO Candidate
1. Alen Amedovski to Win by Knockout +280
All 8 of his pro wins have come by knockout. AA is facing an opponent that will engage him on the feet and not come out looking for a takedown. Phillips has also been stopped twice by knockout. It is a fade of the FPO scenario, but it is a solid fade at this significant of a return.
| Final Prelim | ||||
| 46 | ||||
| 36 | 16 | 20 | 44% | |
| 39 | 26 | 13 | 67% | |
| 34 | 25 | 9 | 74% | |
| 33 | 22 | 11 | 67% | |
| 38 | 23 | 15 | 61% | |
| 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 35 | 17 | 18 | 49% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 31 | 13 | 18 | 42% | |
| 30 | 9 | 21 | 30% | |
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% |
HEF Candidate(s)
1. Gilbert Burns -120 vs Gunnar Nelson +100
2. Ion Cutelaba +100 vs Khalil Rountree -120
3. Nicolas Dalby +120 vs Alex Oliveira -140
4. Alen Amedovski -120 vs John Phillips +100
5. Alessio Di Chirico +130 vs Makhmud Muradov -150
6. Giga Chikadze +135 vs Brandon Davis -155
7. Marc Diakiese -150 vs Lando Vannata +130
8. Nohelin Hernandez +145 vs Jack Shore -165
| HEFs | ||||
| 177 | 93 | 84 | 53% | |
| 212 | 106 | 106 | 50% | |
| 179 | 110 | 69 | 61% | |
| 192 | 100 | 92 | 52% | |
| 217 | 100 | 117 | 46% | |
| 56 | 26 | 30 | 46% | |
| 181 | 97 | 84 | 54% | |
| 212 | 108 | 104 | 51% | |
| 179 | 87 | 92 | 49% | |
| 192 | 95 | 97 | 49% | |
| 211 | 110 | 101 | 52% | |
| 56 | 29 | 27 | 52% |
Prop Bets
Jack Hermansson to Win Inside the Distance -140
The combo of Hermansson’s deadly ground game and Cannonier’s vulnerability on the mat makes it hard to see this fight going a full 5-rounds if Jack “The Joker” is going to emerge with a victory. I feel like the TKO finish is very enticing at such a solid price, but I’d rather keep the submission option in play as well.
Michal Oleksiejczuk to Win by TKO/KO -105
Oleksiejczuk has shown he can win with well-placed power punches or by overwhelming his opponent with volume when he gasses. OSP has a limited window to win and once he starts to slow he will struggle to stay afloat. Take the TKO finish.
Alen Amedovski/John Phillips
See the Betting Scenario Section.
Macy Chiasson to Win Inside the Distance -120
Chiasson can finish with her hands, but she could also lock of an RNC if she takes Lansberg down and takes her back. Similar to Hermansson, let’s keep both options in play here. Lansberg will most likely struggle to go the distance and start to slow down, Chiasson gets the win before the 15-minute mark.
Marc Diakiese/Lando VannataSee the Betting Scenario Section.
Nohelin Hernandez/Jack ShoreSee the Betting Scenario Section.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.