UFC Fight Night 160: Hermansson vs Cannonier | Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Night 160: Hermansson vs Cannonier | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Khalil Rountree  to Win -120
+ Jack Hermansson  to Win -245
ODDS: +158
BET: 8
RETURN: 20.65

 

BET #2
+ Alen Amedovski  to Win -120
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk  to Win -235
ODDS: +161
BET: 8u
RETURN: 20.91u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Alessio Di Chirico  to Win +130
ODDS: +130
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9.2u

 

BET #2
+ Brandon Davis  to Win -155
+ Gunnar Nelson  to Win +100
ODDS: +229
BET: 5u
RETURN: 16.45u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Nicolas Dalby  to Win +120
ODDS: +120
BET: 3u
RETURN: 6.6u

 

BET #2
+ Lando Vannata  to Win +130
+ Nohelin Hernandez  to Win +145
ODDS: +464
BET: 4u
RETURN: 22.54u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Alen Amedovski  to Win by Knockout +280
ODDS: +280
BET: 3u
RETURN: 11.4u

 

BET #2
+ Macy Chiasson  to Win Inside the Distance -120
+ Jack Hermansson  to Win Inside the Distance -140
ODDS: +214
BET: 3u
RETURN: 9.43u

BET #3
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk to Win by TKO/KO -105
+ Brandon Davis  to Win -155
+ Khalil Rountree  to Win -120
ODDS: +489
BET: 3u
RETURN: 17.67u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Khalil Rountree  to Win -120
+ Jack Hermansson  to Win -245
+ Alen Amedovski  to Win -120
ODDS: +373
BET: 10u
RETURN: 47.33u

BET #2
+ Alen Amedovski  to Win -120
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk  to Win -235
+ Khalil Rountree  to Win -120
ODDS: +379
BET: 10u
RETURN: 47.91u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Brandon Davis  to Win -155
+ Alessio Di Chirico  to Win +130
+ Gunnar Nelson  to Win +100
ODDS: +657
BET: 6u
RETURN: 45.41u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Lando Vannata  to Win +130
+ Nohelin Hernandez  to Win +145
+ Nicolas Dalby  to Win +120
ODDS: +1140
BET: 5u
RETURN: 61.99u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Alen Amedovski  to Win -120
+ Gunnar Nelson  to Win +100
+ Lando Vannata  to Win +130
+ Alessio Di Chirico  to Win +130
ODDS: +1840
BET: 4u
RETURN: 77.59u

BET #2
+ Macy Chiasson  to Win Inside the Distance -120
+ Jack Hermansson  to Win Inside the Distance -140
+ Alen Amedovski  to Win by Knockout +280
ODDS: +1094
BET: 4u
RETURN: 47.77u

 

BET #3
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk to Win by TKO/KO -105
+ Brandon Davis  to Win -155
+ Khalil Rountree  to Win -120
ODDS: +489
BET: 4u
RETURN: 23.55

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Khalil Rountree $8400
+ Nicolas Dalby $7400
+ Alen Amedovski $8200
+ Lando Vannata $7700
+ Jack Hermansson $9200
+ Michal Oleksiejczuk  $9100

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Jack Hermansson -245 vs Jared Cannonier +205

A title shot might not be on the line, but this bout is huge for both men’s title aspirations. Hermansson isn’t quite returning the value that he opened at, but stylistically he is a tough fight for Cannonier. I feel like he is a solid add for the Gold play, augmenting one of my higher-paying options in the HBC.

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Hermansson has shown he can finish and over 5 rounds the combination of takedowns and volume should produce a lot of points. I think he is a solid addition to your lineup. Please do so.

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Danilo Belluardo +500 vs Mark Madsen -700

This is an easy No play for me. The line is out of wack and we don’t know enough about either man at this level. Let it go.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Same here. We could get a finish or we could get a grinding decision win. Neither is overly awesome for the price. Pass.

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Gilbert Burns -120 vs Gunnar Nelson +100

This stands to be a close fight with both men sharing a lot of similarities. Nelson was the favorite early, around -130, so the line has moved in our favour. I feel like back to back fights so close together in addition to the travel won’t work well for Burns. He has slowed before in fights and that slowdown might be magnified here. Nelson might not win the first frame, but look for him to take over after that. Gunnar is better on the feet and his mat game moves ahead once his cardio edge takes over. Add in the homefield advantage and he is a solid dog play. One of my top Silver plays of the night.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nelson also gets the call here. He is affordable and can finish with his hands or possibly even get a sub if/when Burns gasses out. The volume factor is a bit concerning, so we are going all-in on a finish. Add him.

***Update- I swapped Nelson our Rountree after realizing the math worked.***

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Ion Cutelaba +100 vs Khalil Rountree -120

This could be a close fight for a round. If Rountree’s improved striking technique and subsequently improved cardio show up like the Anders fight, Cutelaba is going to be in trouble in rounds 2 and 3. Ion is not nearly as dangerous as the number suggest and it takes a dive after round 1. If he gets his wrestling going, that could be a concern, but it could also further compromise his cardio. I like Rountree as a solid Gold play. Most likely pairing him with one of Hermansson or Oleksiejczuk in the HBC.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Cutelaba is tough as nails, but Rountree hits pretty hard and knows how to finish. I feel like he is better priced at $87-8800 so we are getting a deal here. Add him

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Michal Oleksiejczuk -235 vs Ovince Saint Preux +195

Oleksiejczuk doesn’t have a big name, but stylistically he is a tough fight for OSP. This fight jumped off the card at me when I first saw it and I really like him at anything under -275. OSP has a very limited window to win this fight while Oleksiejczuk can do it in multiple ways. Similar to Hermansson, Oleksiejczuk is a solid Gold play as an addition to a well-paying favourite.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I like the volume of Oleksiejczuk. I like his finishing skills. I also like how OSP’s cardio normally fades and how his chin is far from iron-clad. I think this is a good add. So add him.

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Nicolas Dalby +120 vs Alex Oliveira -140

As I mentioned in my breakdown, I feel like the edge of Dalby fighting at home (13-0) is huge. He has dropped a little bit of value, but he is still worth a solid play. Oliveira is too wild and his cardio will drop off fighting so far away from home. Further, Dalby will be extra sharp in Denmark and returning to the UFC. He edges this one out. Could be close, but still like the hometown fighter. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I think Dalby could get a finish by overwhelming Oliveira. Between takedowns and decent volume, he will score some points in a decision and his low price tag gives us a world of potential elsewhere. Add him.

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Alen Amedovski -120 vs John Phillips +100

At this point, Phillips is an automatic fade. Marshman gave him the fight he wanted and he dropped it. I felt he could have got the nod, but he still needed to be more definitive. Amedovski is younger, more aggressive and more technically sound. He could even slip a takedown in against a grappling deficient opponent. He opened at -190, this is a very good price against a fighter that is on his way out of the UFC. Gold play for Amedovski.

Draft-Kings-Logo

With his finishing background, we are getting a solid deal at $8200. He won’t have to worry about takedowns from Phillips which will further allow him to commit to his striking. Add him.

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Alessio Di Chirico +130 vs Makhmud Muradov -150

It looks like this fight is the biggest line swing of any. Di Chirico opened around -230 and has steadily improved in value. Muradov is talented, but I feel like his style might not translate well to the top level of competition. Di Chirico is the more consistent fighter and will keep pushing as the fight advance. I like the style matchup to edge it for Di Chirico, but the value by itself makes it worthwhile. Silver.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Di Chirico hasn’t shown a consistent finishing touch. Pass.

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Siyar Bahadurzada +170 vs Ismail Naurdiev -200

I feel like this is a good fight to avoid. I am not a huge fan of Bahadurzada and Naurdiev is still unproven. Pass.

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Pass.

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Giga Chikadze +135 vs Brandon Davis -155

Giga is a Gladiator product. That is a massive red flag. Any fighter that he has faced with more than 2 career wins has beat him. Davis isn’t a natural ground fighter, but he showed it against Costa. He will do it again here. Davis will either take Giga down and/or drag him into deep water where he isn’t used to being. Davis is a solid Silver play against an untested opponent.

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I think Davis can get the finish here, but at $8700 I feel we have better options.

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Macy Chiasson -450 vs Lina Lansberg +350

I will look at the prop bet here, but this is a no play on Chiasson straight up.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Chiasson is super expensive, even though I expect a finish I can’t pay for her.

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Marc Diakiese -150 vs Lando Vannata +130

This was nearly a pick’em fight at the start. I’m not sold on Diakiese after strong but potentially 1 off performance. Duffy was gone for a long time before that fight and seemed a little off. Vannata’s ability to flow between striking and wrestling is the key here. I think he will spend some key on top that will gas Diakiese out and allow him to take this fight over. Both guys have put together poor performances in recent fights- Bronze play for Lando.

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Lando can submit Diakiese or he can score a knockout. He is also pretty active striker that could combine takedowns and striking to put up some decent points. Add him.

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Nohelin Hernandez +145 vs Jack Shore -165

I was impressed with Hernandez in his short-notice debut against Vera. Shore is a decent fighter, but he is hittable and I feel like the speed and technical edge with lie with Hernandez. With 2 unknowns, I favour the guy that already has his debut under his belt and is in a better spot this time around. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing here.

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Confidence List

1. Macy Chiasson -450

2. Jack Hermansson -245

3. Michal Oleksiejczuk -235

4. Brandon Davis -155

5. Khalil Rountree -120

====================

6. Alen Amedovski -120

7. Mark Madsen -700

8. Gunnar Nelson +100

9.  Ismail Naurdiev -200

10. Lando Vannata +130

11. Alessio Di Chirico +130

12. Nicolas Dalby +120

13. Nohelin Hernandez +145

 

Value Bet List

1. Gunnar Nelson +100

2. Lando Vannata +130

3. Alessio Di Chirico +130

4. Nohelin Hernandez +145

5. Nicolas Dalby +120

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Marc Diakiese/Lando Vannata

I could see a finish or I could see this going the distance. I don’t have enough of a lean either way to back it.

2. Nohelin Hernandez/Jack Shore

A similar approach here. I like the dog and I will take him any way I can get it. Pass.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
44
14 of 35 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
29111838%

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FPO Candidate

1. Alen Amedovski to Win by Knockout +280

All 8 of his pro wins have come by knockout. AA is facing an opponent that will engage him on the feet and not come out looking for a takedown. Phillips has also been stopped twice by knockout. It is a fade of the FPO scenario, but it is a solid fade at this significant of a return.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
34211362%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2791833%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Gilbert Burns -120 vs Gunnar Nelson +100

2. Ion Cutelaba +100 vs Khalil Rountree -120

3. Nicolas Dalby +120 vs Alex Oliveira -140

4. Alen Amedovski -120 vs John Phillips +100

5. Alessio Di Chirico +130 vs Makhmud Muradov -150

6. Giga Chikadze +135 vs Brandon Davis -155

7. Marc Diakiese -150 vs Lando Vannata +130

8. Nohelin Hernandez +145 vs Jack Shore -165

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
1969310347%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
191969550%

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Prop Bets

Jack Hermansson to Win Inside the Distance -140

The combo of Hermansson’s deadly ground game and Cannonier’s vulnerability on the mat makes it hard to see this fight going a full 5-rounds if Jack “The Joker” is going to emerge with a victory. I feel like the TKO finish is very enticing at such a solid price, but I’d rather keep the submission option in play as well.

Michal Oleksiejczuk to Win by TKO/KO -105

Oleksiejczuk has shown he can win with well-placed power punches or by overwhelming his opponent with volume when he gasses. OSP has a limited window to win and once he starts to slow he will struggle to stay afloat. Take the TKO finish.

Alen Amedovski/John Phillips

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Macy Chiasson to Win Inside the Distance -120

Chiasson can finish with her hands, but she could also lock of an RNC if she takes Lansberg down and takes her back. Similar to Hermansson, let’s keep both options in play here. Lansberg will most likely struggle to go the distance and start to slow down, Chiasson gets the win before the 15-minute mark.

Marc Diakiese/Lando Vannata

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Nohelin Hernandez/Jack Shore

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

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