UFC FIGHT NIGHT 159: RODRIGUEZ vs STEPHENS | Bet Pack Review

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 159: RODRIGUEZ vs STEPHENS | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

 

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Kyle Nelson  to Win -125
ODDS: -125
BET: 8u
RETURN: 14.4u

 

BET #2
+ Jose Quinonez  to Win -143
+ Angela Hill  to Win -150
ODDS: +183
BET: 6u
RETURN: 16.99u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Jeremy Stephens  to Win -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 5u
RETURN: 9.55u

 

BET #2
+ Alexa Grasso  to Win -125
+ Martin Bravo to Win  -110
ODDS: +244
BET: 5u
RETURN: 17.18u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Paul Craig  to Win +100
ODDS: +100
BET: 4u
RETURN: 8u

 

BET #2
+ Brandon Moreno to Win +140
ODDS: +140
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9.6u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Jose Quinonez  to Win by Decision +160
ODDS: +160
BET: 3u
RETURN: 7.8

 

BET #2
+ Jose Quinonez  to Win -143
+ Martin Bravo to Win -110
+ Paul Craig  to Win +100
ODDS: +549
BET: 4u
RETURN: 25.95u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Jose Quinonez  to Win -143
+ Angela Hill  to Win -150
+ Kyle Nelson 
to Win -125
ODDS: +410
BET: 10u
RETURN: 50.98u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Alexa Grasso  to Win -125
+ Martin Bravo to Win  -110
+ Jeremy Stephens  to Win -110
ODDS: +556
BET: 7u
RETURN: 45.92u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Paul Craig  to Win +100
+ Brandon Moreno to Win +140
+ Martin Bravo to Win -125
ODDS: +764
BET: 6u
RETURN: 51.84u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Jose Quinonez  to Win by Decision -143
+ Paul Craig  to Win +100
+ Claudio Puelles   to Win by Submission -120
ODDS: +523
BET: 6u
RETURN: 37.38u

BET #2
+ Angela Hill  to Win -150
+ Martin Bravo to Win  -110
+ Kyle Nelson  to Win -125
+ Jeremy Stephens  to Win -110
ODDS: +993
BET: 7u
RETURN: 76.54u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Jeremy Stephens  $8000
+ Kyle Nelson $8600
+ Paul Craig $7900
+ Claudio Puelles $9000
+ Brandon Moreno $7400
+ Sijara Eubanks $9100

Spares

+ Alexa Grasso $8400
+ Martin Bravo $8100
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Yair Rodriguez -110 vs Jeremy Stephens -110

Rodriguez needs a win here to keep his momentum rolling. I feel that despite his success he has been passed by multiple prospect who have transitioned to legit contender status. If Yair can knock-off Stephens and add that to the KZ win, he catches up in a hurry. The line opened with Stephens as a slight dog and Tapology has him picked at 41%. I like the pressure he brought against Zabit. I feel like he can do it here vs Yair, who won’t have the wrestling that Zabit had to fall back on. Look for Jeremy to make this nasty and force Yair out of his comfort zone. He will do more of what KZ did. Homefield advantage is concerning, but I like Stephens as a Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Stephens in my Fantasy lineup. Over his last 3 wins he has scored near or above 100 points in all of them. He throws solid volume and that often leads to the knockout. I’m not sure he can go deep into this fight and still win, but I am encouraged by his prep for the altitude issues. Add him.

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Carla Esparza +100 vs Alexa Grasso -125

Grasso is also a Silver play. Esparza presents the type of style that Grasso has struggled with in the past. If she is going to continue to rise through the ranks, this is a must-win. Esparza is past her prime, but still dangerous enough to prevent Grasso from being a Gold play. Look for Carla to find some success early, but once she starts to slow and the damage inflicted adds up, Grasso will take this one over. Silver Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Esparza is a tough out, but Grasso could get her out of there or pile up a lot of volume attempting to. Add her as a spare.

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Askar Askarov -170 vs Brandon Moreno +140

I like Moreno here for a couple of key reasons. Askarov is a capable prospect, but this could be a tough fight for a debut. He is fighting in enemy territory under conditions that could further complicate the impact of a debut. Further, Askarov tends to be a slow starter and give the first round away off his back. Moreno will feast on that and if the altitude hurts AA at all, he might not be able to rally in rounds 2 and 3. I also really like Moreno to have an edge on the feet. Solid home dog play- Bronze.

Draft-Kings-Logo

The combination of takedowns, positional advances, and Moreno’s ability to finish makes him a solid addition to the lineup. If could add in some striking volume as well, especially in the final round.

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Irene Aldana -550 vs Vanessa Melo +400

This is an easy pass. Aldana has been far from a slam dunk and Melo offers enough to make the -550 return easy to walk away from.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Aldana is a finisher or least has shown she can finish. I wanted to add her to the team, but she is just a little too costly for my budget.

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Martin Bravo -110 vs Steven Peterson -110

The third member of the Silver section is another close fight. I gave Peterson a long look here and if this fight was in the States, I might have gone his way. Bravo will have the crowd which will give him an edge with the judges. He will also be used to the conditions which should give him the edge in rounds 2 and 3. Peterson takes a lot of damage under good conditions, if he slows even a little bit it will make that scenario even more detrimental. Bravo edges him out early and pulls away late for a 30-27 or 29-28 decision that will seem less comfortable than it actually is. Silver section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Peterson eats a lot of damage which means Bravo could score some sizable points that way, but I am not sure he can get the finish. Bravo might be worth adding in as a backup option.

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Carlos Huachin +120 vs Jose Quinonez -143

Huachin is 1-4-2 after the first round. His pre-UFC level of competition is not strong. And he is fighting in a spot that normally goes to decision- 12 of last 15. Further, the altitude is going to be a factor for a fighter that has had poor post-R1 performances. Look for Quinonez to fight long and then get in on the takedowns. Once he gets Carlos slowing, this should be his fight to win. It is also worth noting that Quinonez opened around -245, so we are getting a very solid return. Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I expect a decision here. I will pass.

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Kyle Nelson -125 vs Marco Polo Reyes +100

This is a fight between 2 action fighters that traditionally don’t make it to the final bell- for one reason or another. I like the Canadian here to dig out a win. Reyes seemed completely overwhelmed by the wrestling/grappling of Hadzovic. Nelson has shown he can replicate that. He is also a pretty heavy hitter. I don’t think Reyes will do well with the cut as it will most likely hurt his durability. I wasn’t expecting to like Nelson that much at the start, but the more I look into it, the more I like. Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

With Reyes’s durability taking a recent hit and his struggles on the mat, he is a solid fighter to pick against. Nelson fights for the finish. We want that approach in our lineup. Add him.

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Ariane Carnelossi +125 vs Angela Hill -150

I don’t like to assume things, but it is difficult to look at Carnelossi and not make some assumption. She is a physical monster. She is coming in on short notice against a mobile opponent in an environment that will compromise a fighter’s cardio. Carnelossi has good long fight experience, but not at this level. Hill needs to find that balance of landing enough volume and staying active to avoid Carnelossi’s offense. I feel like the first frame will see the heavily muscled AC crashing forward and Hill on her bike avoiding the majority of her offense. Once she slows, Hill will keep landing and Ariane will not. Styles make fights. Gold play for Hill.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Hill is most likely going the distance if she wins. Her volume could produce some points, but her lack of finishing potential is enough to back me off.

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Tyson Nam +275 vs Sergio Pettis -350

Nam has power, but he won’t be able to match Pettis’s volume. Regardless, this is an easy pass with other playable options already on the card. I will look at a decision prop for Sergio as a better option.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Pettis is most likely taking this one on the cards. Pass.

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Paul Craig +100 vs Vinicius Moreira -125

Craig opened around -160 and I agreed with that line. I love this one. I am not sold on Moreira’s ability to get this fight to the floor. Craig has shown he can wrestle and while his striking against better strikers is not great, it should hold up here quite well. Moreira is too willing to eat strikes to close the gap and Craig is no slouch on the mat either. Craig can win on the feet and could win this bout on the floor as well. Moreira needs to be in top position to take this one home. He won’t get there. Strong Bronze play for the Scot.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Craig in my lineup. He is extremely affordable, can finish, and is fighting an opponent that gets finished more often than not. Easy to see why we are playing him.

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Bethe Correia +225 vs Sijara Eubanks -275

This is a no play for me. Eubanks should win this one, but the line is just not there.

Draft-Kings-Logo

We are swinging for the fences here. Eubanks has some pop in her hands and Correia’s durability isn’t what it used to be. She has been brutally finished in 3 of her last 4 defeats and Eubanks packs enough pop to put here away. I expect that most people will overlook this play which should create some unique points when/if it hits.

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Marcos Mariano +240 vs Claudio Puelles -300

This is also a pass for me. The line offers very little on a 1-1 UFC fighter.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will add Puelles to my lineup for sure. He is a sub hunter and Mariano is incredibly vulnerable on the mat. Look for Puelles to attack his long legs early and keep chaining subs together until something locks in. Add him.

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Confidence List

1. Sijara Eubanks -275

2. Sergio Pettis -350

3. Irene Aldana -550

4. Jose Quinonez -143

5. Kyle Nelson -125

====================

6. Angela Hill -150

7. Martin Bravo -110 

8. Alexa Grasso -125

9. Jeremy Stephens -110

10. Paul Craig +100

11. Claudio Puelles -300

12. Brandon Moreno +140

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Paul Craig +100

2. Kyle Nelson -125

3. Brandon Moreno +140

4. Martin Bravo -110

5. Jose Quinonez -143

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Bethe Correia/Sijara Eubanks

Eubanks is the more likely to get the finish here, but this could also turn into a sloppy, exhausting mess if we hit the third round. I think this one is better left alone.

2. Claudio Puelles to Win by Submission -120

With 5 wins by sub and a dogged determination to make his opponent tap, I like Puelles to replicate this fact. Mariano seems way out of his depth on the mat and if Puelles starts attacking his legs he will have even less experience fending off that style of submission. Grab this bet on a card we are playing very few prop bets.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
44
14 of 35 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
29111838%

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FPO Candidate

1. Jose Quinonez to Win by Decision +160

Huachin’s record in longer fights is brutal. Is it possible that Quinonez will overlook this when game-planning for this bout? Possibly, but let’s hope not. Look for Quinonez to drag his foe into the latter stages of this bout with a takedown heavy attack. Jose has gone the distance in each of his last 3 wins and 4 of 7. He will do so again here.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
34211362%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2791833%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Yair Rodriguez -110 vs Jeremy Stephens -110

2. Carla Esparza +100 vs Alexa Grasso -125

3. Martin Bravo -110 vs Steven Peterson -110

4. Carlos Huachin +120 vs Jose Quinonez -143

5. Kyle Nelson -125 vs Marco Polo Reyes +100

6. Ariane Carnelossi +125 vs Angela Hill -150

7. Paul Craig +100 vs Vinicius Moreira -125

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
1969310347%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
191969550%

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Prop Bets

Carlos Huachin/Jose Quinonez

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Bethe Correia/Sijara Eubanks

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Marcos Mariano/Claudio Puelles

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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