UFC Fight Night 158: Cerrone vs Gaethje | Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Night 158: Cerrone vs Gaethje | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

 

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Glover Teixeira  to Win +110
ODDS: +110
BET: 8u
RETURN: 16.8u

 

BET #2
+ Justin Gaethje  to Win -188
+ Jeff Hughes  to Win -125
ODDS: -188
BET: 7u
RETURN: 10.72u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Hunter Azure  to Win +140
ODDS: +140
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12u

 

BET #2
+ Augusto Sakai  to Win +100
+ Misha Cirkunov  to Win -125
ODDS: +260
BET: 5u
RETURN: 18u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Uriah Hall  to Win +200
ODDS: +200
BET: 5u
RETURN: 15u

 

BET #2
+ Miles Johns to Win -138
+ Jordan Griffin  to Win -150
+ Austin Hubbard  to Win -138
ODDS: +396
BET: 4u
RETURN: 19.83u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Glover Teixeira  to Win by Submission +175
ODDS: +175
BET: 4u
RETURN: 11u

 

BET #2
+ Augusto Sakai  to Win by Decision  +325
ODDS: +325
BET: 3u
RETURN: 12.75u

 

BET #3
+ Hunter Azure  to Win +140
+ Miles Johns to Win -138
+ Glover Teixeira  to Win +110
ODDS: +769
BET: 3u
RETURN: 26.08u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Justin Gaethje  to Win -188
+ Jeff Hughes  to Win -125
+ Glover Teixeira  to Win +110
ODDS: +222
BET: 10u
RETURN: 32.17u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Augusto Sakai  to Win +100
+ Misha Cirkunov  to Win -125
+ Hunter Azure  to Win +140
ODDS: +517
BET: 7u
RETURN: 43.2u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Miles Johns to Win -138
+ Jordan Griffin  to Win -150
+ Austin Hubbard  to Win -138
ODDS: +396
BET: 5u
RETURN: 24.79u

 

BET #2
+ Miles Johns to Win -138
+ Uriah Hall  to Win +200
+ Austin Hubbard  to Win -138
ODDS: +792
BET: 4u
RETURN: 35.69u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Glover Teixeira  to Win by Submission +175
+ Duffee/Hughes  Total Rounds Under 1.5 -125
+ Augusto Sakai  to Win by Decision  +325
ODDS: +2004
BET: 4u
RETURN: 84.15u

BET #2
+ Hunter Azure  to Win +140
+ Glover Teixeira  to Win +110
+ Augusto Sakai  to Win +100
ODDS: +908
BET: 5u
RETURN: 50.4u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Justin Gaethje $9000
+ Glover Teixeira $7700
+ Jeff Hughes $8300
+ Michel Pereira $9500
+ Uriah Hall $7100
+ Misha Cirkunov $8000

Spares

+ Augusto Sakai $7800
+
+
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Betting Breakdowns

Donald Cerrone +162 vs Justin Gaethje -188

Cerrone is always on the cusp of a title shot, but after the Ferguson loss, this feels like a must-win. Gaethje is close too and with his style, a 3-4 fight winning streak puts him in the equation. JG opened much higher around the -250 mark which isn’t too surprising and I expected to see money come in on Cerrone here. The talk of Gaethje getting finished by Cowboy in training certainly adds to that narrative. I like Gaethje as a Gold play. Cerrone can win, but I like the momentum that JG brings to the fight and how they match up.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also have Gaethje in my Fantasy lineup. He hits with KO power and offers pretty solid volume. He can finish or he can score big points with his offense- possible both. Add him.

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Nikita Krylov -138 vs Glover Teixeira +110

I was a little surprised to see where this line opened, -130 for Glover, and even more shocked to see his value improve. Krylov can win this fight if he can clip Glover and finish him. Glover’s hands are more technical and he is the better wrestler. Krylov has really struggled with fighters that want to take him down. Glover should replicate those issues. That has been his focus in recent fights and it will be here. We are getting a great value here- Gold play on Glover.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Glover also gets the call to the Fantasy team. Krylov has never seen the scorecards in victory or defeat. Glover can finish just about anywhere and at $7700 he is a great pick to both save cash and produce. Add him.

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Todd Duffee +100 vs Jeff Hughes -125

Duffee opened as the big fav and that is understandable. He looked like he was going to be the next big thing at HW, but it just hasn’t played out like that. His type of layoff is going to be a major concern. Especially when he is already known for short fights and he is facing a durable fighter with long fight potential. Hughes might not be the physical specimen, but he has been more active and he has the tools to win this fight. Gold Play to make it 3 for 3 to end the card.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Hughes is also a Fantasy Pick. He has decent power, but more importantly- Duffee is far from durable. He has been knocked out on multiple occasions and if Hughes catches him or wears him down and finishes he will produce points in either scenario. Add him.

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Michel Pereira -550 vs Tristan Connelly +400

This is an easy pass. Connelly shouldn’t win this fight, but Pereira is wild enough to get in trouble. Easy No Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I expect that the Brazilian will get the finish and with a couple of our low-cost plays we can afford him. Let’s hope for another crazy knockout. Add him.

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Uriah Hall +200 vs Antonio Carlos Junior -250

ACJ can win this fight if he executes. If he hesitates, Hall will blast him. I like Hall’s ability to survive and do damage. If ACJ can’t close the distance or can’t get him down or opts to stand with him for too long- he will be in trouble. Hall falls into the Bronze section here. His speed is key and the return is solid for a Bronze play with a dangerous fighter like Hall against a fighter that has areas of vulnerability.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Hall also gets the Fantasy nod. He should be able to finish this fight with his power and ACJ can be stopped, especially if he gasses out. Very cheap price for a dangerous fighter.

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Misha Cirkunov -125 vs Jim Crute +100

The line has been moving from a near pick’em to a slight nod to Misha. I am ok with this. Crute wins if he can hurt Misha and put him down. If he can’t and Misha closes on him, he will have a sizeable advantage in the clinch and on the mat. Crute is still a little wild and that can get him in trouble. This is a make or break fight for Misha. Losing to the elite/top is one thing, but Crute is not there yet. He can’t afford a loss here and will fight accordingly. Silver pick for the Latvian-Canadian.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Misha is also a Fantasy play we need to back. At $8000 even, he is affordable and a finisher. He has finished all of his wins and can do so in the first round.

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Augusto Sakai +100 vs Marcin Tybura -125

This spot is famous for decisions and I like this fight to be fairly evenly matched which means we could get a 15-minute battle. Sakai is bigger and little more confident in his striking right now. He didn’t look great against AA which I think is impacting the overall line. Tybura has shown promise, but he appears to be backsliding a little and has been finished in 2 of 3 fights. The line movement has been pretty limited on this one which tells me we aren’t getting too much of a difference in the incoming cash. Sakai will land more volume and is the more durable fighter as well. If he can deny TDAs or Tybura opts against attempting them, this fight turns in his favour more so. Strong Silver play for AS.

Draft-Kings-Logo

This one could go the distance. As much as I like playing HW fights, Sakai only makes sense as a low paying player. Add him as a spare when needed.

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Miles Johns-138 vs Cole Smith +110

I thought Smith looked good in his debut, but I also felt he benefited from an opponent that normally slows down and had been out of action for quite a while. Johns gas tank didn’t look bullet proof, but I feel his wrestling is going to give Cole all sorts of trouble. Johns opened around -175 so we are getting a pretty solid deal. Nonetheless, playing Johns along with a couple of other debuting/ relatively new fighters in the Bronze section seems like a solid plan.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Cole will be a tough out. I think we can find better options elsewhere.

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Hunter Azure +140 vs Brad Katona -170

It is a little concerning that I am betting against so many Canadians; Katona/Smith/Prepolec (I don’t think Connelly counts here), but I feel like the matchups these guys have drawn are pretty rough. Katona’s TDD is a major concern and Azure is a very good wrestler with a strong top game. That is enough to pick the UFC newcomer over the TUF winner. Solid dog money. He gets the nod in the Silver section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Katona is a tough out. Makes this a pass for me.

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Jordan Griffin -150 vs Chas Skelly +125

Skelly opened as the fav, but the swing has been significant. I feel that Skelly a couple of years ago is in a good spot here, but he seems to have slowed down a step to further complicate an already questionable gas tank. If Skelly can take Griffin down, he can finish him. Instead, I see Griffin making it a dog fight and taking over once Skelly starts to fade. Either finishing him or finishing strong for a decision. Still a Bronze play, but far from a weak one.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I gave Griffin a look but I think he was a little too costly compared to some other options. Pass.

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Ryan MacDonald +200 vs Louis Smolka -250

Smolka has burned us before. I think this is a fight we should avoid. I am not stuck on him at 135. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Same here.

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Austin Hubbard -138 vs Kyle Prepolec +110

Prep was a bigger dog and Hubbard a larger favourite at the open. I feel like Hubbard has shown me more both in the UFC and on the regional scene. He lost better to a better opponent. This bout could really go either way. Let’s roll with Hubbs as a slight favourite with a few more things I like than the Canadian. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing doing here. Let’s keep it simple and avoid this one.

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Confidence List

1. Michel Pereira -550

2. Glover Teixeira +110

3. Justin Gaethje -188

4. Jeff Hughes -125

5. Louis Smolka -250

====================

6. Augusto Sakai +100

7. Misha Cirkunov -125

8. Hunter Azure +140

9. Miles Johns-138

10. Jordan Griffin -150

11. Austin Hubbard -138

12. Uriah Hall +200

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Glover Teixeira +110

2. Hunter Azure +140

3. Augusto Sakai +100

4. Jeff Hughes -125

5. Uriah Hall +200

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Ryan MacDonald/Louis Smolka

I could see this fight going the distance, but a finish is not out of the question. I don’t feel that I have a strong read one way or another. I will pass here.

2. Austin Hubbard/Kyle Prepolec

Similar to the above fight, I want to keep this one simple too as I like betting Hubbard here- I will take a win any way I can get it.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
44
14 of 35 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
29111838%

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FPO Candidate

1. Augusto Sakai to Win by Decision +325

Is there a possible finish here? Oh hell yes. But with our experience in this spot, I feel like we could get some early actin and a grind to the finish. Big return here. Let’s cash.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
34211362%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2791833%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Nikita Krylov -138 vs Glover Teixeira +110

2. Misha Cirkunov -125 vs Jim Crute +100

3. Augusto Sakai +100 vs Marcin Tybura -125

4. Miles Johns-138 vs Cole Smith +110

5. Jordan Griffin -150 vs Chas Skelly +125

6. Austin Hubbard -138 vs Kyle Prepolec +110

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
1969310347%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
191969550%

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Prop Bets

Glover Teixeira to Win by Submission +175[/T1]

This is a solid prop. My biggest concern is that Glover gets back mount and goes for the TKO. Krylov has been subbed 5-times and Glover has tapped out his last 2 opponents. The Misha TKO win is the other side of the coin. Let’s stick with this side for now and take the plus money as Krylov is a tough out with hands.

Todd Duffee/Jeff Hughes Total Rounds Under 1.5 -125

Both guys can finish, but it is Duffee that has shown a vulnerability to getting finished. I expect this to be a slugfest and while I’d like to take Hughes by knockout, I feel like the Under 1.5 gives us a little more to work with when it comes to options- especially by keeping both fighters on the board.

Augusto Sakai/Marcin Tybura 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Ryan MacDonald/Louis Smolka

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Austin Hubbard/Kyle Prepolec

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

 

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