UFC FIGHT NIGHT 157: Andrade vs Zhang | Premium Bet Pack Review

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 157: Andrade vs Zhang | Premium Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Jessica Andrade  to Win -175
+ Damir Ismagulov  to Win -175
ODDS: +147
BET: 9u
RETURN: 22.22u

 

BET #2
+ Jessica Andrade  to Win -175
+ Andre Soukhamthath  to Win -160
ODDS: +155
BET: 8u
RETURN: 20.43u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Mizuki Inoue  to Win -143
+ Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos  to Win -300
ODDS: +127
BET: 6u
RETURN: 13.59u

 

BET #2
+ Song Kenan  to Win -110
+ Khadis Ibragimov  to Win -275
ODDS: +160
BET: 5u
RETURN: 13.02u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Mark De La Rosa  to Win +175
ODDS: +175
BET: 3u
RETURN: 8.25u

 

BET #2
+ Jun Yong Park to Win +130
ODDS: +130
BET: 3u
RETURN: 6.9u

 

BET #3
+ Danaa Batgerel to Win  -110
+ Lara Procopio to Win  -110
ODDS: +264
BET: 3u
RETURN: 10.93u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ E. Zaleski dos Santos  to Win Inside the Distance +100
+ Damir Ismagulov  to Win by Decision +125
ODDS: +350
BET: 3u
RETURN: 13.5u

 

BET #2
+ A. Soukhamthath   to Win Inside the Distance +200
ODDS: +200
BET: 3u
RETURN: 9u

 

BET #3
+ Song Kenan  to Win by Decision +340
ODDS: +340
BET: 3u
RETURN: 13.2u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Jessica Andrade  to Win -175
+ Damir Ismagulov  to Win -175
+ A. Soukhamthath  to Win -160
ODDS: +301
BET: 9u
RETURN: 36.11u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Song Kenan  to Win -110
+ Khadis Ibragimov  to Win -275
+ Mizuki Inoue  to Win -143
ODDS: +342
BET: 7u
RETURN: 30.97u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Jun Yong Park to Win +130
+ Mark De La Rosa  to Win +175
+ Mizuki Inoue  to Win -143
ODDS: +975
BET: 5u
RETURN: 53.74u

BET #2
+ Danaa Batgerel to Win  -110
+ Lara Procopio to Win  -110
+ Damir Ismagulov  to Win -175
ODDS: +473
BET: 5u
RETURN: 28.64u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ E. Zaleski dos Santos  to Win Inside the Distance +100
+ Damir Ismagulov  to Win by Decision +125
+ Jessica Andrade  to Win -175
ODDS: +607
BET: 5u
RETURN: 35.36u

 

BET #2
+ A. Soukhamthath   to Win Inside the Distance +200
+ Song Kenan  to Win by Decision +340
+ Jessica Andrade  to Win -175
ODDS: +1974
BET: 5u
RETURN: 103.71u

 

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Jessica Andrade $8700
+ Jun Yong Park $7400
+ Mark De La Rosa $7100
+ Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos $9200
+ Danaa Batgerel $8500
+ Andre Soukhamthath $8600

Spares

+ Mizuki Inoue $8300
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Jessica Andrade -175 vs Weili Zhang +150

I feel like Andrade’s early struggles versus Rose and the home-field advantage factor for Zhang are impacting the line here. At the open, the line was sitting around -200 which I still feel is a bit low. I don’t want to overlook what Zhang has done to get this shot, but honestly, this feels like the UFC saw an opportunity to showcase a Chinese fighter in a title fight on Chinese soil and they went for it. Weili’s wins have not aged well. Taylor and Aguilar are gone from the UFC and Torres is on a 4-fight losing streak. Conversely, JA has taken out almost every major SW not named Joanna. I like Andrade here to physically be too much for Zhang. Weili relies too much on her strength to get wins and that won’t be an option here. A great price on the champ- Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Andrade is a point producer. She can finish, she can pile up the volume, and she can finish while piling up the volume. At sub $9000, she is a must-add for your lineup.

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Li Jingliang +240 vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -300

I like Dos Santos here, but the price seems a little unenticing. He has dropped in value and while I feel like he has the tools to win this fight almost anywhere, I am concerned that Li could grind his way to a decision win. The home-field decision is a major concern in a close fight, especially if EZDS can’t get him out of there. I might use him to bump up a Silver play or leave the Brazilian off altogether.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do have him in my lineup. He hits hard and is a finisher. Li has never been knocked out, but he has been hurt in fights and do Santos is just the guy to flip the switch on that scenario. Add him.

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Mark De La Rosa +175 vs Kai Kara-France -210

I have not been nearly as impressed with KKF as many others have been. 88% of predictors are backing him on Tapology which is huge. I feel like his striking can become a little predictable and his cardio isn’t the best. If De La Rosa gets him down he will be all over him on the mat, especially after KKF starts to fade. There always seems to be one or 2 fights per Fight Night event that ends with an unexpected underdog win. This could be it. There is big money coming in on De La Rosa so jump befoe his return falls further. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do have De La Rosa in my lineup. He is very cheap, opening some doors for us and he can finish by sub if he can find KKF’s back. A solid play with a big impact on your lineup.

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Movsar Evloev -700 vs Zhenhong Lu +500– CANCELLED

This is a rematch with the short notice factor worked in as well. The line gives us no reason to get involved. Pass.

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Similarly, the cost is too great here for a fight that I expect to go the distance. Pass.

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Mizuki Inoue -143 vs Wu Yanan +120

This bout was a near pick’em at the open which is fine with me. The money has come in on Inoue who is one of the more experienced and capable WMMA prospects not to have received a call from the UFC. I do have concerns over Wu winning with some home cooking, but I feel like Mizuki is just the better fighter. Yanan resume is pretty weak and she hasn’t looked that great in the Octagon. I like Inoue as a Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Inoue also gets the call as a backup Fantasy player. She is affordable and can finish by submission if Wu hits the floor. I like her as an option to mix your lineup up a little.

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Song Kenan -110 vs Derrick Krantz -110

This fight is, as the line indicates, 50/50. Kenan took a step up and didn’t look great. Krantz came in on short notice and got smoked after a quick start. I feel like Kenan at home is the biggest edge here. Krantz needs takedowns and he could get them to grind out a win, but I think we are more likely to see Song on his feet enough and landing more offense to justify a close decision win. I will use Kenan as a Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

There is a very good chance that Song takes this on the cards with 55 to 70 significant strikes. We can get more points elsewhere.

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Anthony Hernandez -160 vs Jun Yong Park +130

The move on this fight has been significant. Hernandez opened around -230 and has move considerable with some sites creeping beyond the -160 mark into the -150s. That also means Park is returning quite as much which is disappointing, but I am still fine with the dog money. I feel like Hernandez isn’t much more than a brawler and that should open plenty of opportunities for the superior boxer and counter to land with regularity. Park highlights my Bronze plays.

Draft-Kings-Logo

At $7400 and facing a willing punching bag, Park is a solid add to our lineup. He will either score a finish or put up some solid offensive numbers. Add him.

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Sumudaerji +130 vs Andre Soukhamthath -160

Soukhamthath opened as a much larger favourite sitting around -245 and his number has steadily moved in our favour. Soukhamthath’s fight IQ is a major concerned and could lead him to stand with Sumudaerji instead of utilizing his wrestling to exploit a massive gap his opponent’s defense. Soukhamthath has shown he can use his physicality to control and beat an opponent and hopefully he offers something similar here. Over 80% of predictors on Tapology are backing Soukhamthath and I have him in my Gold plays.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I also added him to my Fantasy lineup. He hits hard and if he can routinely take his foe down, the finish will be there. I figured he would be closer to $8800 or above, $8600 is a solid price.

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Khadis Ibragimov -275 vs Da Un Jung +225

Ibragimov appears to just do what Jung does, only better. I didn’t see enough of Jung that suggests he can pull off the upset here. Compared to where Ibragimov opened, this line looks solid with the price sitting in the mid -300s in the original open. At first look, this appeared to be a No Play for me, but after recognizing the line change, there is a little more value on Khadis than I initially expected. I have him as a Silver play addon, capable of being paired up with another solid bet like Inoue or Song.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Just a little too expensive for the cash we have available. I think a finish is a solid possibility, but we would need to make some sizeable changes to our lineup.

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Damir Ismagulov -175 vs Thiago Moises +150

Talk about a big swing. When this line dropped, Ismagulov opened at -400 on some sites with the comeback on Moises at nearly +300. We are getting a much better look to say the least hear. Moises was not winning his last fight until he got on top and held the position. I don’t see him doing that against the Russian. Moises struggles with pressure and Ismagulov will bring just that. I think this is a solid Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I am expecting this fight to go the distance. Better options elsewhere.

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Heili Alateng -110 vs Danaa Batgerel -110

There is so much up in the air about the first 2 fights on the card that it is hard to get a solid lean. Batgerel seems like the better option based on cage skills. He is also getting a 65% following on Tapology and he opened as a much bigger favourite at -175. I will take a small shot as a Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

The price is right and with an opponent that has been finished on multiple occasions. On a card with so much unknown we were bound to take a risk somewhere- this is that spot.

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Lara Procopio -110 vs Karol Rosa -110

Procopio is also getting over 60% on Tapology and the line has moved her from a clear favourite (-165) to closer to a pick’em. We have seen a lot of uncertainty in WMMA in recent fights and fighting in China to go along with a pair of debuts really complicates this entire scenario. I like Procopio as a Bronze bet.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will pass here and find my finishes elsewhere.

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Confidence List

1. Jessica Andrade -175

2. Damir Ismagulov -175

3. Movsar Evloev -700

4. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -300

5. Andre Soukhamthath -160

====================

6. Jun Yong Park +130

7. Khadis Ibragimov -275

8. Mizuki Inoue -143

9. Song Kenan -110

10. Danaa Batgerel -110

11. Lara Procopio -110

12. Mark De La Rosa +175

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Jun Yong Park +130

2. Mizuki Inoue -143

3. Jessica Andrade -175

4. Mark De La Rosa +175

5. Mizuki Inoue -143

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Heili Alateng/Danaa Batgerel

With a pair of fights involving 4 fighters that are debuting with a lot of uncertainty, let’s keep things simple and avoid a prop bet.

2. Lara Procopio/Karol Rosa

See Above.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
14
24
44
14 of 35 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
29111838%

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FPO Candidate

1. Song Kenan to Win by Decision +340

This is purely a value bet. We know how consistent the FPO has been and at +340 for the local fighter this is worth a shot.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
34211362%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
2791833%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Mizuki Inoue -143 vs Wu Yanan +120

2. Song Kenan -110 vs Derrick Krantz -110

3. Anthony Hernandez -160 vs Jun Yong Park +130

4. Sumudaerji +130 vs Andre Soukhamthath -160

5. Heili Alateng -110 vs Danaa Batgerel -110

6. Lara Procopio -110 vs Karol Rosa -110

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
1969310347%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
191969550%

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Prop Bets

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos to Win Inside the Distance +100

Li has never been knocked out and while he is durable, he can be hurt. Dos Santos hits extremely hard and has finished 3 straight opponents. The reason we keep the submission option in play is that Dos Santos has shown he can grab the sub when the situation presents itself and Li has suffered his only stoppage loss by sub.

Song Kenan/Derrick Krantz

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Andre Soukhamthath to Win Inside the Distance +200

I feel like Sumudaerji is simply too flawed on the mat to go the distance here. He struggled with the ground game of a Flyweight in Smolka and if Soukhamthath pushed a ground heavy attack, it is hard not to see Sumudaerji eventually faltering. +200 is a solid return for a fighter that has won 85% of his fights by stoppage.

Damir Ismagulov to Win by Decision +125

Since making the jump to next level competition, Ismagulov has become a bit of a decision machine. Over his last 5 fights, he has gone the distance 4 times, including both of his UFC fights. He has 8 wins by decision. It is also worth noting that Moises has never been finished, suffering all 3 career defeats on the cards.

Heili Alateng/Danaa Batgerel

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Lara Procopio/Karol Rosa

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

 

 

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