UFC Fight Night 156: Shevchenko vs Carmouche 2 | Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Night 156: Shevchenko vs Carmouche 2 | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Volkan Oezdemir  to Win -150
ODDS: -150
BET: 8u
RETURN: 13.33u

 

BET #2
+ Vicente Luque  to Win -225
+ Aleksei Kunchenko  to Win -150
ODDS: +141
BET: 10u
RETURN: 24.07u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Raulian Paiva  to Win -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 6u
RETURN: 11.45u

 

BET #2
+ Tecia Torres  to Win -163
+ Enrique Barzola  to Win -138
ODDS: +178
BET: 7u
RETURN: 19.48u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Veronica Macedo  to Win -138
ODDS: -138
BET: 5u
RETURN: 8.62u

 

BET #2
+ Luiz Garagorri  to Win -125
+ Geraldo de Freitas  to Win -125
ODDS: +224
BET: 5u
RETURN: 16.2u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Valentina Shevchenko  to Win by Decision +175
ODDS: +175
BET: 4u
RETURN: 11u

 

BET #2
+ Tecia Torres  to Win by Decision +105
+ Vicente Luque  to Win inside the Distance +115
ODDS: +341
BET: 4u
RETURN: 17.63u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Vicente Luque  to Win -225
+ Aleksei Kunchenko  to Win -150
+ Volkan Oezdemir  to Win -150
ODDS: +301
BET: 10u
RETURN: 40.12u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Tecia Torres  to Win -163
+ Enrique Barzola  to Win -138
+ Raulian Paiva  to Win -110
ODDS: +431
BET: 8u
RETURN: 42.5u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Luiz Garagorri  to Win -125
+ Veronica Macedo  to Win -138
+ Geraldo de Freitas  to Win -125
ODDS: +459
BET: 6u
RETURN: 33.53u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Volkan Oezdemir  to Win -150
+ Enrique Barzola  to Win -138
+ Geraldo de Freitas  to Win -125
ODDS: +417
BET: 6u
RETURN: 31.04u

 

BET #2
+ Aleksei Kunchenko  to Win -150
+ Tecia Torres  to Win -163
+ Raulian Paiva  to Win -110
ODDS: +413
BET: 6u
RETURN: 30.8u

 

BET #3
+ Tecia Torres  to Win by Decision +105
+ Vicente Luque  to Win inside the Distance +115
+ Valentina Shevchenko  to Win by Decision +175
ODDS: +1112
BET: 5u
RETURN: 60.6u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Volkan Oezdemir  $8500
+ Raulian Paiva $8000
+ Geraldo de Freitas $8300
+ Veronica Macedo $7600
+ Eduardo Garagorri $8400
+ Vicente Luque $9000

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Valentina Shevchenko -1200 vs Liz Carmouche +700

The first fight was so long ago, so early in their careers, and ended under such fluky circumstances we really can’t take it into account. The line has moved significantly on Carmouche with her value almost doubling. Some predictors are suggesting a small bet on the challenger. I don’t see it. I will look at a prop bet here, but this is a No Play on Shevchenko as far as I am concerned.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I don’t have Shevchenko in my lineup either. I am fading the finish here after she destroyed Eye, but the price is also up there. Pass.

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Vicente Luque -225 vs Mike Perry +187

Now here is a fight I really like. Luque opened around -190/-195 and has moved some, but he still worth a look. He has a number of advantages here. Unless Perry can turn this fight into a crazy brawl and push him so hard that he fades, I don’t see him getting the nod. Baberena landed 169 sig strikes and couldn’t get him out of there. Those aren’t Perry numbers. Luque offers all the tools needed to beat Perry and Mike has had issues with these upper echelon guys. Gold Play for Luque.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Luque is also in my Fantasy lineup. He showed he can throw volume in a longer fight and the guy is a stone, cold killer. He has hit triple-digit fantasy points in 5 straight fights and 8 of 10- falling just 4 points short in one fight. Add him.

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Humberto Bandenay +100 vs Luiz Garagorri -125

What we have here is the UFC in a new territory, trying to build a market and they need the local fighter to get a win. The position on the card makes no sense if you don’t acknowledge that scenario. Bandenay has a quick win, an equally quick loss, and a nose-diving decision defeat. That is not a lot to build confidence around. Tapology is favouring LG at over 70% and the line has hardly moved at all. Garagorri is at home, undefeated, winning fights, and looks to be the better striker. Not as much as we like to go on, but he works in the Bronze section here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do have Luiz in my DK lineup. He has a number of first-round finishes and we have seen Bandenay get stratched early. If Humberto fades, Garagorri could put up some decent volume numbers and/or get the finish later in the bout.

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Ilir Latifi +125 vs Volkan Oezdemir -150

This fight has been in the incubator for a while and there are varying perspectives. Some feel Volkan can’t keep up his pace and Latifi takes over. Others feel (me included) it could be the other way around. And there are those that feel either man could get a finish. 75% of Tapology pickers are on VO and the line has remained fairly consistent. I like Latifi, but I don’t like how he struggles with opponents he can’t bully. His volume is not there in a longer fight and his durability is a question mark in a firefight. Oezdemir has to stay off his back as well. I like a fighter coming off 3 straight losses, especially to good competition. This usually skews the odds and motivates them to win in order to stay on the roster. I like Volkan as a Gold play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Oezdemir in my Fantasy lineup. He is a finisher with heavy hands against an opponent that needs to close the distance to engage. I feel like he can put Latifi down and at $8500 that is a solid price tag. Add him.

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Oskar Piechota +187  vs Rodolfo Vieira -225

I can Piechota a good look. If Vieira falters early and fades a little, Oskar can certainly win this fight. Those first 3 to 4 minutes will decide a lot here. Either way, it is a pass for me.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Same here. Vieira most likely wins this fight by submission which is tempting, but at $9100 there are other big-ticket picks I prefer.

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Enrique Barzola -138 vs Bobby Moffett +110

The line movement here has been great. Barzola opened over -200 on most sites and has become increasingly more bettable through fight week. The recent upturn in value has been steep. I feel Moffett relies too much on takedowns and really doesn’t offer a backup plan. Barzola can strike and against a lesser striker, that could be his key here. He could also take advantage of the need for Moffett to get the fight to the floor and counter with his own top position. Either way, I really like Barzola here- he is a strong Silver play, falling just short of the Gold option.

Draft-Kings-Logo

No Barzola for me. If he was around $8600, I would throw him in as a spare- but I expect a decision with a lot of takedowns. Anything close to $9000 needs finishing potential. I don’t see it here.

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Cyril Gane -400 vs Raphael Pessoa +300

I think our FPO streak is going to be snapped here. More on that later. We have 2 debuting HWs with a lot of question marks and lobsided line. An easy No Play for me. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

The lineup was a little tough to build, but it worked out. With Gane in the game at $9400, we would have to cut costs elsewhere. I like our more prove $9000+ option in Luque better and he is slightly cheaper.

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Marina Rodriguez +137 vs Tecia Torres -163

Torres has lost to the best of the best- 3 champions and the next challenger. She has beat everyone else. Does the talent of her defeats mask a downturn or does it simply show where her ceiling is? Rodriguez is a decent fighter, but a draw with Markos and a win over the falter Aguilar isn’t much to build on. It could be argued that Rodriguez is moving up and Torres down, but Marina is the older fighter. People age quicker in the lower divisions. I like jumping on fighters in this spot. She has lost 3 in a row against top competition. She is now getting a step back and the numbers are skewed because of her recent performance. I think she comes out hard here and just outworks Rodriguez. I like here as a Silver play here, paired with Barzola sounds very interesting.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Torres is a decision machine. Easy pass.

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Rogerio Bontorin -110 vs Raulian Paiva -110

One of the downfalls of spending extra time researching and prepping is that the line might change against us. Paiva had a little more value before, making him a tempting dog. I still like him here. Bontorin got a gift decision at home while Paiva went to New Zealand and lost in controversial fashion. I like what I saw out of Paiva in that fight. If Bontorin can get him down and keep him down, he wins, but he risks giving up position against a pretty could scrambler. Couple that with the superior striking of Paiva and he should be able to edge this one out, possibly even walk away with clear. Silver play for RP.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I like the price tag here. He is quite affordable and he puts up some decent volume. His record suggests a decision is very likely, but I feel he could snap Bontorin’s head back a couple of times and grab a finish.

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Geraldo de Freitas -125 vs Chris Gutierrez +100

This bout is 60/40 in favour of Gutierrez on Tapology which makes sense to me. I gave him a long look and for most people, he would appear to be in a good spot here. The key reason for going against him is the grappling attack of GDF. He found success at FW putting his opponent down with regularity. Gutierrez has major issues on the mat. Against Barcelos, as soon as he was taken down he was stuck and eventually got finished. Unfortunately, GFD opened as a decent-paying dog. We aren’t getting that return now. I think the drop in value is enough to knock him from a Silver play, but the Bronze play is still a solid return.

Draft-Kings-Logo

GDF scored a lot of points in debut, mainly on the strength of his takedowns. I feel like he can do that again and potentially even get a finish on the mat if the position strikes him. Solid point potential for an affordable amount.

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Alex da Silva -275 vs Rodrigo Vargas +225

Vargas didn’t impress me that much in the footage I have seen of him. Da Silva faded badly in his fight, but it was under less than ideal circumstances. Either way, we aren’t getting enough info here to make a play. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Da Silva might get a finish, but he is too pricey for my money. Pass.

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Gilbert Burns +125 vs Aleksei Kunchenko -150

Burns is going back up to WW and it sounds like it could be permanent. The change is coming on short notice as well against a pretty tough/ undefeated opponent. Kunchenko has looked good, but did so against a pair of aging veterans. Burns has had issues against fighters he couldn’t take down and at 170, he will struggle to outmuscle his opponents like he did at LW. Look for Kunchenko to stay vertical and simply do more on the feet than Burns does, punishing him every time he opens up to engage. AK was closer to -180 and some sites now have him around -138. Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

AK has put together decision wins, unable to get his opponents out of there. He was close against Okami. I will pass on.

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Veronica Macedo -138 vs Polyana Viana +110

This line as switched entirely. We saw Macedo open up at +130 and slowly drift to the role of the favourite. She has lost all 3 of her UFC fights, but looked decent doing so. At the very least she put up a decent scrap. Viana has faced lesser competition and while she has a win, her resume isn’t that great. Viana is a great grappler, but she lacks cardio and wrestling. I feel like VM can survive early and take over the fight as her opponent falters. Bronze play here as Macedo has yet to show she can win at this level.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do have Macedo in my lineup. She is cheap and that allows us to spend accordingly elsewhere. She is also facing a short notice opponent with cardio issues. A finish would not be out of the question. Add her.

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Confidence List

1. Valentina Shevchenko -1200

2. Vicente Luque -225

3. Aleksei Kunchenko -150

4. Volkan Oezdemir -150

5. Enrique Barzola -138

====================

6. Cyril Gane -400

7. Tecia Torres -163

8. Raulian Paiva -110

9. Geraldo de Freitas -125

10. Veronica Macedo -138

11. Luiz Garagorri -125

12. Rodolfo Vieira -225

13. Alex da Silva -275

 

Value Bet List

1. Enrique Barzola -138

2. Raulian Paiva -110

3. Veronica Macedo -138

4. Aleksei Kunchenko -150

5. Volkan Oezdemir -150

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Gilbert Burns/Aleksei Kunchenko

This is not your typical EPU. Veteran, experienced fighters- albeit Burns is coming in on short notice. Both men could score the finish and I would lean heavily towards AK if they do go the distance. I will look strictly for a win here.

2. Veronica Macedo/Polyana Viana

These two are pretty scrappy and a finish is not out of the question. I would think Viana gets it early, most likely by sub. Macedo is more likely to get it later via exhaustion based finish. Similar to the other EPU option- let’s just stick to the straight-up winner.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
13
19
26
7 of 23 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
2191243%

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FPO Candidate

1. Cyril Gane/Raphael Pessoa

I looked at the options. Gane by stoppage is far from worth it. The Under 1.5 is tempting, but I feel like it is not enough to go against the FPO scenario. My fear is that things could slow late in round 1 after a torrid start and this one turns into a grind and gets over the midway mark. Pass.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
2216673%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
1751229%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Humberto Bandenay +100 vs Luiz Garagorri -125

2. Ilir Latifi +125 vs Volkan Oezdemir -150

3. Enrique Barzola -138 vs Bobby Moffett +110

4. Marina Rodriguez +137 vs Tecia Torres -163

5. Rogerio Bontorin -110 vs Raulian Paiva -110

6. Geraldo de Freitas -125 vs Chris Gutierrez +100

7. Gilbert Burns +125 vs Aleksei Kunchenko -150

8. Veronica Macedo -138 vs Polyana Viana +110

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
119576248%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
178958353%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
119596050%

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Prop Bets

Valentina Shevchenko to Win by Decision +175

This is a fade play. I know that a lot of people are going to look at the brutal Eye finish and bet for another stoppage here. It could absolutely happen, but I like the decision here. Carmouche is pretty tough and her dependency on grappling/wrestling could put her into a defensive shell once she can score takedowns. This will help her to avoid some of the big shots from Val and potentially slow the fight down, leading to a decision.

Vicente Luque to Win inside the Distance +115

Luque can finish you just about anywhere. Against Perry, a submission seems the most likely way to get the stoppage, but the way these two are potentially going to bang it out a knockout is far from off the table. This play, at plus money, keeps both on the table- bet accordingly.

Cyril Gane/Raphael Pessoa

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Tecia Torres to Win by Decision +105

Torres is a decision machine. She has finished just 1 opponent in the UFC. Could she do it again? Possibly. She will be motivated to put on a good show here to get out of a slump. Nonetheless, the numbers tell us that if Torres wins, she wins by decision. Take the bump in value.

Gilbert Burns/Aleksei Kunchenko

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Veronica Macedo/Polyana Viana

See the Betting Scenario Section.