UFC Fight Night 152 | Preliminary Predictions

UFC Fight Night 152 | Preliminary Predictions

145lbs- Megan Anderson (9-3-0) vs Felicia Spencer (6-0-0)

In a fight bumped to the main card, 2 members of the limited Women’s Featherweight division battle for a possible future shot at the title as Megan Anderson takes on the debuting Felicia Spencer. Anderson lost to Holly Holm in her UFC debut, but returned to the win column with an unconventional TKO win over Cat Zingano. Still undefeated, Spencer is debuting following a perfect 6-0 run under the Invicta banner where she has spent her entire pro career.

A towering 6’0″, Anderson will stand half a foot taller than Spencer to go along with a 4″ reach advantage. They are roughly the same age. It is worth noting that Spencer has fought at Lightweight in previous contests.

With Nunes currently prepping to defend her Bantamweight title, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the future of this division. Nonetheless, the winner of this fight could earn a future title shot.

Anderson won the interim-Invicta title in early 2017 and later was promoted to the Champion. Spencer snagged the title in late 2018 with a submission victory over Pam Sorenson.

In stark contrast, Anderson’s success has come largely on the feet with her heavy striking offense. Spencer, a BJJ Black belt has submitted 3 of her last 4 opponents.

Anderson struggled with the takedowns of the predominantly striking based Holm and against a more capable grappler that could be a major issue.

On the feet, Spencer can hold her own but her focus is on getting the action to the floor as soon as possible. The Canadian has a solid transition game and does a decent job of maintaining control and riding with her foe as she moves.

If Anderson can stay vertical and maintain distance, she should be able to strike her way to a win. Unfortunately, that will be difficult. She had almost no answer for Holm and Spencer is a far more dangerous grappler. Megan’s win over Zingano didn’t show much with regard to improved grappling defense. Spencer takes her down, works towards her back, and goes to work- my prediction is Felicia Spencer to defeat Megan Anderson by submission.

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145lbs- Michael Trizano (9-0-0) vs Grant Dawson (13-1-0)

With a combined record of 22-1, Ultimate Fighter winner Michael Trizano and UFC sophomore Grant Dawson will look to make the next step in towards contention in the Featherweight division. Trizano has remained undefeated despite a pair of close split decision wins over Luis Pena and Joe Giannetti. Dawson debuted with a dominant decision victory over Julian Erosa- his 4th consecutive victory.

Trizano is an inch taller, but Dawson will have a 1-inch reach advantage. Dawson is the younger fighter by a year. Trizano is moving back down to Featherweight after competing at Lightweight to start his UFC tenure.

In his debut, the Team Alpha Male member put his wrestling prowess on display. Dawson completed 6 of 11 takedowns against Erosa and spent the majority of the fight on top.

Over a pair of split-decisions, Trizano has spent some time on the mat, but overall he has utilized his striking skills to edge his opponents on the cards.

While Grant kept Erosa on his back, he did appear to slow down in the latter stages of the fight. He could have been impacted by Octagon jitters and/or a long layoff, but it was also the first time he fought beyond the 2nd round in his career.

A key aspect of Trizano’s offense has been his kicks- both to the legs and body, but against Dawson’s takedown centric offense he needs to be careful not to let them become takedown opportunities.

Trizano is the more complete striker, but he will need to stay vertical in order to capitalize on that edge. Look for Dawson to put together a better performance than in his debut. With both his debut and prolonged layoff behind him, Dawson will push forward, ground Trizano and maintain top control for long durations of this fight- my prediction is Grant Dawson to defeat Michael Trizano by decision.

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155lbs- Desmond Green (22-8-0) vs Charles Jourdain (9-1-0)

In the Lightweight division, former Bellator competitor Desmond “The Predator” Green welcomes Canadian Charles “Air” Jourdain to the UFC. Green has won 2 of his last 3 fights, finishing Ross Pearson by TKO last time out. Jourdain has won 4 in a row dating back to his first career loss in 2017.

Green is the taller man by an inch but will have a solid 4″ reach advantage. Jourdain is the younger man by 6-years.

Des is coming off his best performance in the UFC and his first finish since 2016. Jourdain has finished all of his opponents, including a fifth-round TKO last time out.

Finishing 6 of his 9 wins by knockout, Jourdain has a Muay Thai base. In his recent win over Alex Morgan, he scored with a well-executed spinning back fist before securing a submission win.

Almost all of Green’s defeats have been close, with “The Predator” simply not doing enough to get the nod. His striking is sound, but he does his best work when he can blend it with his wrestling.

The wresting of Green is a major concern for “Air” Jourdain. On the regional scene, he has struggled with takedown-centric opponents.

Even if he can stay vertical Green has faced more consistent strikers and held his own.

Green’s struggles have come against opponents that could equal or surpass his wrestling skills. That won’t be the case for Jourdain. Unless the Canadian has cleaned up his takedown defense, he will spend too much crucial time on his back. Des can do his own damage on the feet and overall he will score more points over 15-minutes- my prediction is Desmond Green to defeat Charles Jourdain by decision.

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205lbs- Patrick Cummins (10-5-0) vs Ed Herman (24-14-0 1NC)

A pair of Light Heavyweights on the outside of the ranks looking in collide as Patrick “Durkin” Cummins faces Ed “Short Fuse” Herman. Cummins has lost back to back fights to Corey Anderson and Misha Cirkunov- he is 3-5 in his last 8 fights. Herman bumped up to 205 and bested Tim Boetsch, but has since dropped a trio of outings including a split decision to Gian Villante.

Cummins is an inch taller than the former Middleweight but Herman will have a 1″ reach advantage. They are just a month apart in age.

Cummins has built his career around his wrestling. The former NCAA Division 1 wrestler has completed 29 takedowns over his 6 UFC wins.

He has landed just 5 takedowns over 6 defeats- 4 in his loss to Glover Teixeira.

A 22-fight UFC veteran, Herman has secured 13 wins by submission but his last came back in 2012.

Herman’s TDD ranks it at a respectable 60%, but CB Dollaway recently completed 6 in his decision win over “Short Fuse”.

The knock on Cummins has been his durability, with multiple fighters finishing him via strikes. His lack of improvement regarding his striking defense leaves him vulnerable on the feet against superior strikers.

If Herman can land flush, he has shown he can finish on the feet.

Ed will need to capitalize when he is vertical and that won’t be often. Cummins’ combination of grinding wrestling and size advantage will put Herman in some bad spots throughout this fight. Look for “Durkin” to ground Herman early, and smother him on the mat with his heavy top game. Herman will struggle to gain separation early and it will get more difficult as the fight advances- my prediction is Patrick Cummins to defeat Ed Herman by TKO.

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170lbs- Danny Roberts (16-4-0) vs Michel Pereira (21-9-0 2NC)

Brit Danny “Hot Chocolate” Roberts makes a quick turn around to battle UFC debutant Michel Pereira in the Welterweight division. Roberts is coming off a loss to Claudio Silva by submission, ending his 2 fight winning streak. Pereira has just a single win over his last 3 outings with a loss and No Contest mixed in- he went 4-1 with 2 NC in 2018.

Both men are 6’1″, Roberts will have an inch reach advantage while the Brazilian is the younger man by 6-years.

Roberts lost to Silva via controversial decision, but what was evident was his inability to avoid/negate the grappling skills of his foe. He has given up multiple takedowns on multiple occasions and while his sub skills are solid it is still a defensive liability.

Pereira owns a diversified record with 8 wins by knockout and 6 by sub. He has finished 11 opponents in the opening round but is a dismal 6-7 on the scorecards.

His last 3 wins have come over a trio of opponents with a 14-9 record, including one adversary with a record of 0-1.

The Brit is a capable boxer, but he has proven to be a bit chinny at times and that is a concern against the diversified and unpredictable striking offense of his Brazilian counterpart.

If Pereira can land early, he could certainly finish Roberts. Conversely, if Danny can avoid the early onslaught Pereira has a tendency to slow down after his early onslaught. Look for Roberts’ more conventional striking attack to hold up and he will mix in a couple of well-timed takedowns when needed. Roberts will take complete control once Pereira’s gas tank hits empty- my prediction is Danny Roberts to defeat Michel Pereira by TKO.

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185lbs- Zak Cummings (22-6-0) vs Trevin Giles (11-0-0)

Looking to continue his success in the Middleweight division, Zak Cummings takes on Trevin “The Problem” Giles. Cummings has won 3 of his last 4 fights, defeating Trevor Smith in his last fight. Giles has yet to taste defeat, defeating Antonio Braga Neto via KO at Fight Night 123.

Both men stand 6’0″, but Cummings will have a slight 1″ reach advantage. Giles is the younger fighter by 8-years, but he has been out of action for 17-months.

Giles survived the early action on the mat with Neto before capitalizing on the Brazilian’s slowdown and scoring his 5th career win by knockout.

Cummings built his early success around his takedowns and submission skills. More recently he has focussed on remaining vertical and employing his counter striking offense.

In his debut, Giles scored 5 takedowns, but Net had success putting on the floor early. Cummings may look to return to his grappling base to negate the striking skills of Giles.

During his run at Welterweight, Cummings had issues making weight and the return to 185-pounds might allow him to be more active over the duration of a fight.

The layoff for Giles could lead to some ring rust, but it also might have provided him with time to continue to develop his game. Cummings is a tough and well-rounded veteran fighter. If Giles isn’t on-point, Cummings will capitalize. Giles looks to be the better athlete with the more capable striking offense. Unless Cummings turns this fight into a grind, Giles will get the better of the exchanges with impact and volume. My prediction is Trevin Giles to defeat Zak Cummings by decision

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145lbs- Julio Arce (15-3-0) vs Julian Erosa (22-8-0)

The opening fight of the night goes down in the Featherweight division as Tiger Schulmann product Julio Arce meets “Juicy J” Julian Erosa. Arce is coming off his first loss since 2016, he scored back to back wins to start his UFC run before his loss to Sheymon Moraes. Over a pair of UFC tenures, Erosa is a dismal 1-3 with his most recent defeat coming against Grant Dawson.

Erosa is 6 inches taller than his foe to go along with a 5″ reach advantage. They are the same age.

On the regional scene, “Juicy J” has compiled a solid 7-2 record between his time spent in the UFC. His struggles have been characterized by a willingness to exchange on the feet, but a lack of durability.

Julio comes from a kickboxing background but has secured just a trio of wins by knockout. Over his pair of UFC wins he has landed more strikes than his foe by roughly a 2-1 count.

With 10 knockouts and 9 submission wins, Erosa has shown he can finish. Conversely, he is 3-4 in decisions and has been knocked out 3-times which is a product of his lackluster defense.

Arce was hurt early against Moraes and spend the majority of the fight attempting to catch up after his foe pulled ahead early.

Erosa has yet to show he can win at this level. His inability to utilize his reach and height advantage couple with a willingness to stand and trade is concerning. Arce is the better striker and unless Erosa finds a way to ground him, Julio will get the better of the action on the feet. Erosa will engage with Julio but eventually succumb to Arce’s striking prowess- my prediction is Julio Arce to defeat Julian Erosa by TKO.