• in Featured Posts, Latest, Main Card, Mixed Martial Arts, Sports Bets, UFC

The UFC made another return to the United Kingdom with UFC Fight Night 147 going down in London, England from the O2 Arena. Included in the night’s festivities, were several top European MMA stars including former title challenger Darren Till and future contender Leon Edwards.

The night ended with a bang, but not the type that many of the screaming fans were hoping to see. Overall, we saw 5 finishes and 7 decisions- 3 ending by split decision. My prediction struggles continue with a downright unacceptable 6-6 final record. Winning as many fights as you lose is never a good thing, so let’s take a look at what went right and what went wrong on Saturday night.

What Went Right?

• Not Much, or at least not enough.
• Molly McCann put together a gutsy performance and survived a late Doctor check to get the win. She nearly got the victory with her improved grappling attack which would have been nice to see.
• The only first-round victory on the cards went to Dan Ige. Ige pressed forward, hurt his foe, and put his ground skills to work en route to the finish.
• My only upset on the night saw Saparbek Safarov endure a loss of a point for multiple cage grabs, but hold on to win a one-sided decision.
• In a gritty performance, Claudio Silva utilized his grappling skills to get the better of Danny Roberts and eventually grab a controversial verbal submission.
• Nathaniel Wood earned his 3rd straight win to start his UFC run- all coming by submission. He ended his opponent’s 4-fight winning streak in the process and continues to show signs of a bright future.
• In controversial fashion, Dominick Reyes maintained his undefeated record with a close split decision win. Volkan Oezdemir started strong and pressured Reyes, but Dominick appeared to take the fight over in the second half to earn a close decision win.

What Went Wrong?

• Nad Narimani couldn’t find his range early and failed to capitalize on a big moment in round 2 prior to getting stopped.
• Marc Diakiese continued to prove a trend of the dangers of a wounded fighter. Coming in off of three consecutive defeats, he was simply too much for Joe Duffy. Duffy struggled with the low kicks and overall speed of his foe, failing to string together anything significant.
• Let’s chalk it up to failure to execute, but Jordan Rinaldi just didn’t show up. He attempted a couple of meek takedown attempts and spent the rest of the fight eating punches.
• To say the least Jack Marshman versus John Phillips was underwhelming, but I felt Phillips did enough to come away with the win. It wasn’t a robbery, just not my take on the fight.
• Gunnar Nelson found a little bit of success early in the fight, but couldn’t parlay that momentum into anything significant. A lot of credit needs to be given to Leon Edwards who will most likely get an even bigger fight next time out. His post-fight incident with Jorge Masvidal could potentially lay the groundwork for a massive title eliminator.
• Darren Till got it rolling early, but the ending was abrupt and brutal. Masvidal looked fantastic and I while don’t want to diminish the significance of his win, but Till is the latest victim of the “Post-Title Fight Letdown” scenario. Masvidal could earn a title shot or a fight with Edwards which would be huge in the UK. Till needs to recalibrate and possibly even consider moving up to Middleweight to avoid the big cut and start fresh.

Final Thoughts…

Right now I can’t seem to string together more than a few wins in a row and that is not okay. I’ve felt good about a couple of recent picks in Nelson, Rinaldi, and Curtis Millender and they call got shut down fairly effectively. This type of business tends to go in waves. Hitting at .500 is not good, but it could be worse. I feel I am closer to turning the corner than going backwards. Time to get to work.

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Jordan Rinaldi	to WIN	+125
		ODDS:	+125
		BET:	8u
		RETURN:	18u

BET #2
+ Gunnar Nelson	to WIN	+130
+ Tom Breese	to WIN	-115
		ODDS:	+395
		BET:	6u
		RETURN:	29.67u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Nad Narimani	to WIN	-129
		ODDS:	-129
		BET:	5u
		RETURN:	8.88u

BET #2
+ Dominick Reyes	to WIN	-229
+ Joe Duffy	to WIN	-180
		ODDS:	+123
		BET:	5u
		RETURN:	11.17u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Saparbek Safarov	to WIN	+145
+ Dan Ige	to WIN	-135
		ODDS:	+326
		BET:	4u
		RETURN:	17.06u

BET #2
+ John Phillips	to WIN	+150
+ Claudio Silva	to WIN	-150
		ODDS:	+317
		BET:	4u
		RETURN:	16.67u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Gunnar Nelson	to Win by Submission	+200
		ODDS:	+200
		BET:	3u
		RETURN:	9u

BET #2
+ Dominick Reyes	to Win Inside the Distance	-120
+ Marshman/ Phillips	Total Rounds Under 1.5	+120
		ODDS:	+303
		BET:	3u
		RETURN:	12.1u

BET #3
+ Saparbek Safarov	to Win by TKO/KO/DQ	+295
+ Jordan Rinaldi	to Win by Decision	+195
		ODDS:	+295
		BET:	3u
		RETURN:	11.85u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Jordan Rinaldi	to WIN	+125
+ Gunnar Nelson	to WIN	+130
+ Tom Breese	to WIN	-115
		ODDS:	+868
		BET:	8u
		RETURN:	77.4u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Nad Narimani	to WIN	-129
+ Dominick Reyes	to WIN	-229
+ Joe Duffy	to WIN	-180
		ODDS:	+297
		BET:	6u
		RETURN:	23.8u

BET #2
+ Darren Till	to WIN	-220
+ Gunnar Nelson	to WIN	+130
+ Jordan Rinaldi	to WIN	+125
		ODDS:	+653
		BET:	5u
		RETURN:	37.64u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Saparbek Safarov	to WIN	+145
+ Dan Ige	to WIN	-135
+ Tom Breese	to WIN	-115
		ODDS:	+697
		BET:	3u
		RETURN:	23.92u

BET #2
+ John Phillips	to WIN	+150
+ Claudio Silva	to WIN	-150
+ Joe Duffy	to WIN	-180
		ODDS:	+548
		BET:	3u
		RETURN:	19.44u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Gunnar Nelson	to Win by Submission	+200
+ Dominick Reyes	to Win Inside the Distance	-120
+ Jordan Rinaldi	to Win by Decision	+195
		ODDS:	+1523
		BET:	5u
		RETURN:	81.13u

BET #2
+ Saparbek Safarov	to Win by TKO/KO/DQ	+295
+ Marshman/ Phillips	Total Rounds Under 1.5	+120
+Molly McCann	to Win by TKO/KO/DQ	+350
		ODDS:	+3811
		BET:	3u
		RETURN:	117.32u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Gunnar Nelson	$7900
+ John Phillips	$7400
+ Tom Breese	$8400
+ Saparbek Safarov	$7200
+ Dominick Reyes	$9300
+ Nathaniel Wood	$9400

Spares

+ Joe Duffy	$9100
+ Molly McCann	$8500
+
+

Betting Breakdowns

Darren Till -220 vs Jorge Masvidal +200

Can Till buck the trend of the Post-Title Fight Letdown scenario? It’s not 100% foolproof, but more often than not we see a fighter in his spot come up short.  We haven’t seen a lot of movement in the line yet, but I expect Till’s value to plummet as we get closer to the fight. Masvidal has been out of action for a while and he has issues in both close fights and high profile fight. Unless he stops Till or dominates him for at least 3 rounds, Till will take this one. I like him as a secondary Silver Play or left off altogether.

Till could get the finish here, but Masvidal is pretty crafty. I think we can find better options for our money.

Gunnar Nelson +130 vs Leon Edwards -125

Here is a fight I love. Nelson opened almost even and has increased in value nicely. Can Edwards win this fight, 100%, but he will need either a complete wipe our or to work very hard to avoid/get out of some bad spot. Edwards TDD is okay and if Neslon gets him on the mat even once, that is going to be a majro issues. Nelson could take this fight on the feet as Edwards lacks the power/volume to dominate the action on the feet. Edwards has needed ground supremacy in his recent run- he won’t have it here. Gold Play for Gunni.

Nelson also gets the call in my Fantasy lineup. He has finished all but 1 of his UFC wins and if/when he takes Edwards to the mat he will eventually find his way to a potential finish. At the least, it will be takedowns and positional advances that score for a sub-$8000 pick-up.

Dominick Reyes -229 vs Volkan Oezdemir +210

I believe Volkan got exposed in his last fight. If he can’t get his foe out of there quick, he is going to struggle. Reyes has some length on him and he is the more diverse striker. Coming off the OSP fight, he has significantly upped his experience quotient and that is key here. Unless Volk can get him out of there quick, DR will slowly take this fight over with a more diverse attack. He opened around -215 and is trending toward -250 and beyond, so the price isn’t great for a fighter taking his next step in competition. I will put Dom in my Silver play section.

I do have Reyes in my Fantasy lineup. With a couple of solid dogs, we can go all out on our big plays. He is a finisher and with Volk’s history of slowing down, Reyes should be able to get him out of there.

Jose Quinonez +260 vs Nathaniel Wood -260

I am going to pass here. We have lots of betting options and Wood, while a good fighter is a little reckless. I feel like Jose is being underappreciated and this fight is much closer than the line currently sits. We haven’t seen a lot of movement, but I had Wood around -180. Pass.

I do have Wood in my Fantasy lineup. He has a good finisher’s pedigree and can do it striking or grappling. If he wins this fight it will most likely come inside the distance. Add him

Claudio Silva -150 vs Danny Roberts +130

I don’t like Claudio Silva, but I kept seeing Roberts get dragged into and struggle with grappling exchange against lesser ground fighters. Roberts has the tools to win this fight, but he also has the gaps to lose it. We are seeing a slight increase as Silva rises from near -190 to the -160 to -150 range so we are getting some value here. I like Silva as a Bronze play.

I will pass here. Silva could very well get the sub, but I just don’t want to be locked into this fight more than I need to be.

Jack Marshman -140 vs John Phillips +150

This should be a slugfest. I had Marshman pencilled in and I kept coming back to Phillips. Marshman is a short-armed boxer which will create issues against a longer, heavy hitter like JP. If Marshman can change levels and take him down, it is a whole different story- but I am not banking on this one. I like some of what I saw from Phillips last time out and he finally gets a good style matchup. Bronze Play.

John is cheap and most likely wins this fight by knockout. By utilizing him here we are very open when it comes to the big price tags we can add to our squad. Add him.

Arnold Allen -135 vs Jordan Rinaldi +125

I love this fight, even with the massive line change. Rinaldi opened around the +200 mark and has lost value for the majority of the week. That is fine. When I saw this fight and even after breaking it down, I had Rinaldi as the public dog but the rightful favourite. Allen is a capable fighter, but he has struggled with lesser ground fighters. Rinaldi completely shut down a very good guard game of Knight and should find success here as well. He is a decent size FW coming down from LW and that will also create issues for AA. The Brit has been walking a fine line and it catches up with him here. Gold Play.

I don’t have Rinaldi in my lineup because I am expecting a decision win. There is a greater finish potential with other dogs.

Joe Duffy -180 vs Marc Diakiese +170

Duffy is coming off a loss and layoff, but we are getting a decent return. He started around the -265 spot but has been rising in value ever since. I haven’t been impressed with Diakiese and this is really a make or break fight for him. Duffy has the tools to beat him just about anywhere short of getting jacked with something massive. Duffy joins my Silver plays in a wait and see type of investment that will most likely be combined with another play.

I have Duffy as a spare. He can finish on the feet or on the mat which is the type of fighter we like to have our money on, but there are better big cash options out there so he is a backup plan.

Nick Negumereanu -155 vs Saparbek Safarov +145

This fight should be a sloppy fun mess. Get your cash on SS as quickly as possible. He is dropping in value and that line will continue to plummet. The movement is indicative of a public that initially looked at Saparbek’s UFC performance and wrote him off. Now we have money coming from bettors that have investigated NN and come across the records of the guys he has been beating. With a number of sub-.500 opponents (some not even close to .500) he is taking a big step up here. This bout should be even at best. I like Saparbek to outslug a guy that that is used to opponents crumbling under pressure. Lots of unknown here- Bronze bet.

If the Russian wins he does it by stoppage and that is a good thing. With a cheap price tag, we are all over him for our starting lineup.

Ian Heinisch +120 vs Tom Breese -115

Breese opened around -165 and has been climbing in value. Heinish is a tough out but I like what I see out of Breese. He is a more consistent fighter and is growing nicely throughout his UFC tenure. Heinisch is tough but his tires got a little overpumped in a win over Ferreira. Breese is undervalued here and is a Gold play in my books.

I went back and forth on whether to include TB in my lineup. I settled on yes. He has finishing skills on the mat and the feet and I think he can get Ian out of there. For his price tag we are getting a bit of a deal. Add him.

Dan Ige -135 vs Danny Henry +125

This fight was near even with Henry as a slight favourite on some cards. Ige’s ground game is the key here. He is solid on the mat and can hold his own on the feet. Henry exploited one fighter who gassed out and finished another before the fight could play out. Those are not sustainable trends to build a career on. Ige comes off as the better fighter with the superior skill set. I like him to grind this one out and possibly snatch a finish. Bronze play.

Pass here. Better investments elsewhere.

Molly McCann -200 vs Priscila Cachoeira +190

We are getting some sizeable movement on MaCann here and I don’t expect this to end well for us. Both girls are 0-1 in the UFC and Cachoeira got blown out of the water by the champ. That isn’t a good look, but it is also impacting the line in a manner that isn’t helping us. My initial plan was a Bronze play,  but I think we can simply sidestep this one. Pass.

I have Molly as a spare. She has the potential to get a finish against a fighter that is all offence and will probably gas out. Most WMMA fighters get overlooked when it comes to finishing and we could grab some unique points here. Mix her into a secondary lineup.

Mike Grundy +135 vs Nad Narimani -129

There is a really odd scenario surrounding this fight. While almost all major books have a line similar to the one we posted, 5Dimes has Narimani at -355. That is not even close. What do they know that we don’t? Will other books follow suit? I like NN as the more complete fighter here against a debuting specialist that has been out of action for a long time. I could see Grundy finding some success early before flaming out and Narimani taking the fight over. Nad falls into my Silver plays. Keep an eye on this one in the event other books follow 5Dimes, maybe grab an early bet on NN before the potential move.

A grinding decision is most likely the outcome here. Pass.

Confidence List

1. Dominick Reyes -229

2. Jordan Rinaldi +125

3. Gunnar Nelson +130

4. Tom Breese -115

5. Joe Duffy -180

====================

6. Darren Till -220

7. Nathaniel Wood -260

8. Molly McCann -200

9. Dan Ige -135

10. Nad Narimani -129

11. Saparbek Safarov +145

12. John Phillips +150

13. Claudio Silva -150

Value Bet List

1. Jordan Rinaldi +125

2. Gunnar Nelson +130

3. Tom Breese -115

4. Saparbek Safarov +145

5. John Phillips +150

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

UFC 214: Cormier vs Jones 2
C. Daniel Cormier		CTRY.		#1 Jon Jones
	19-1	REC	22-1
	4W	STREAK	13W
	+230	ODDS	-245
	205	WEIGHT	205
	5'11"	HEIGHT	6'4"
	72.5"	REACH	84.5"
	38	AGE	30
COUNTDOWN TO UFC 214

EPU Candidate(s)

1. Molly McCann to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +350

Molly didn’t have a good debut, but I like her here. She has recorded 4 of her 7 wins by knockout and is facing an aggressive, all offence opponent. The Brazilian has a history of finishing her opponents quick and will slow down in longer fights. Molly can end it early or late and at this price, it is worth a look.

2. Mike Grundy/Nad Narimani

I will pass here. This seems like a grinding affair. Either man could finish, but I don’t have a great enough lean to make a play.

FPO Candidate

1. Jordan Rinaldi to Win by Decision +195

This scenario is starting to catch on again in 2019. Rinaldi’s main focus here will be to maintain control and grind out minutes on the clock. He can’t afford to let this fight be close because he will drop a narrow decision. Allen looked defeated at points against Burnell and was very fortunate to snatch up a win at the last second. Rinaldi won’t have to deviate from what he does well; takedowns and top control. I like him on the cards.

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Gunnar Nelson +130 vs Leon Edwards -125

2. Claudio Silva -150 vs Danny Roberts +130

3. Jack Marshman -140 vs John Phillips +150

4. Arnold Allen -135 vs Jordan Rinaldi +125

5. Nick Negumereanu -155 vs Saparbek Safarov +145

6. Ian Heinisch +120 vs Tom Breese -115

7. Dan Ige -135 vs Danny Henry +125

8. Mike Grundy +135 vs Nad Narimani -129

Prop Bets

Gunnar Nelson to Win by Submission +200

Nelson has won all but 1 of his UFC victories by submission. Those are pretty solid numbers to be getting a +200 return on our cash here. Edwards has decent TDD, but his reliance on grappling exchanges will put him in Gunni’s wheelhouse. Edwards usually shuts down the majority of the TDAs throne his way but Nelson often only needs 1. Nelson impressed against Oliveira and will do the same here.

Dominick Reyes to Win Inside the Distance -120

I love this play here. Volk doesn’t have the gas tank to go a full 3 under pressure and Reyes will capitalize if/when he slows down. Dom is also capable of getting him out of there early. Keep all options open with the “Inside the Distance” play instead of a Sub or KO prop.

Jack Marshman/John Phillips Total Rounds Under 1.5 +120

These guys are both durable, but this seems to be the type of fight where the leather is going to fly and the judges’ decision will seem forever away. We could see this bout eek itself into the second half but with a positive return and the significant potential for fireworks, let’s get in on the Under.

Arnold Allen/Jordan Rinaldi

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Saparbek Safarov to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +295

With 6 of his 8 wins by knockout and willingness to sit down and throw, Safarov by knockout at near +300 is a solid play. NN might get a win here, but it won’t be easy and the cans he crushed on the regional scene don’t generate a lot of confidence. I like the Russian to showcase his toughness is a sloppy barn burner.

Molly McCann/Priscila Cachoeira

See the Betting Scenario Section.

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Scott Johnson

Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.