UFC Fight Night 146: Dos Santos vs Lewis Recap & Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Night 146: Dos Santos vs Lewis Recap & Bet Pack Review

What is old is new again. The former Heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos took a massive step towards another shot at the title. The Brazilian upended recent title challenger Derrick Lewis in an entertaining sub-two round main event.

In addition to the headlining event, there were multiple entertaining fights and some questionable decisions by the judges. Let’s take a look in our Winners and Losers from Saturday night.

Winners

Junior dos Santos

JDS avoided the constant danger of Lewis’s unconventional offence, eventually finding the mark and overwhelming “The Black Beast”. With a win over the #3 ranked fighter in the division, JDS will move closer to the top of the division. With a trio of wins for “Cigano” and the Heavyweight division in search of future contenders, Dos Santos is on the cusp of another shot at the gold.

Elizeu dos Santos

The Welterweight dos Santos continued his push into the upper echelon of the already stacked Welterweight division. Elizeu made short work of an equally as hot opponent by exploiting a clear gap in his arsenal. The Brazilian is a dangerous striker and showcased both his Fight IQ and improving mat game- he is in for a big fight next time out.

Niko Price

What a fight! Price might not always win and he may never work his way into the title conversation, but he is must-see-tv! He was on the cusp of becoming a part of Tim Means’ Highlight reel but turned the tables in brutal fashion.

Despite the loss and the unfortunate leg break suffer by Means, I don’t consider him a loser as he remains an exciting action fighter that the fans want to see.

Beneil Dariush

A loss against Dober would have been curtains for Dariush as a top-ranked fighter. With back to back wins, Dariush is still a work in progress and needs to clean up his striking defence, but at the very least he avoided a nasty knockout loss.

Anthony Rocco Martin

Rocco Martin has the potential to be a handful for a large portion of the fighters in the Welterweight division. He is a dangerous grappler with improving striking. He is closing a shot at a ranked fighter.

Losers

The Judges

They weren’t great. I have seen much worse, but the judges were far from on point on Saturday. Rothwell should have earned the nod over Blagoy. Almost all the media gave it to “Big” Ben, some scoring it 30-27. The Reneau/Kuniskaya decision was a little better as it seemed like Yana got the better of the first two rounds before Marion took over. Nonetheless, I can see why many would disagree.

Curtis Millender

Despite his talent on the feet, his defensive grappling needs to be improved and needs to be improved soon. With multiple grapplers and wrestlers spread through the Welterweight ranks, Millender’s ceiling is limited until he makes the needed adjustments.

Drew Dober

I don’t like putting Dober here, but this is a tough one for him. He was putting together a pretty solid fight and had Dariush in some trouble early. This would have easily been the biggest win of his career and while his stock won’t drop that much this is a pretty unfortunate swing and a miss.

Sergio Moraes

Just not a good performance. He looked disinterested and frustrated. Sergio showed just enough to suggest he could have found success with more urgency, but he certainly did not deserve the win.

Julian Erosa

It was a fairly entertaining fight, but Erosa is just not UFC calibre. He has struggled to find success at this level and against a young debuting opponent that appeared to be fading, Erosa still couldn’t get it going. He might get another shot but his back is against the wall.

Louis Smolka

Smolka was just too willing to accept a bad position and while it has worked for him in previous fights, it was a costly mistake here. Smolka is still very entertaining, but if the 125-pound division is done Louis is going to struggle to make much noise if he can’t get by Matt Schnell.

Neither

Derrick Lewis

The loss won’t hurt Lewis much and will be quickly forgotten with a future win. Derrick suffered from a post-title fight letdown but did so in an incredibly entertaining way. It has been recently revealed that Lewis was fighting hurt which makes his loss even more tolerable. Either way, he will be back.

Ben Rothwell

That was a decent performance following a near 3-year layoff. I felt he did enough to deserve the win, but I guess that wasn’t the case in the eyes of those that matter. Hopefully, he can turn around shortly and get back in the cage.

Final Thoughts

I felt like my reads weren’t that far off, but the areas of concern that I had were exploited, especially in the Millender fight. Smolka didn’t get out of danger and paid for it. Hughes suffered from just enough Octagon shock to let Greene get the better of him. Boetsch didn’t push hard enough early and was too far behind once he did engage. My Bet Pack fell just short on a couple of key bets despite hit on a pair of parlays. Not a great way to follow up UFC 235, but we get to turn around and do it all again next weekend.

 

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Curtis Millender  To WIN -105
+ Alex Morono  To WIN -170
ODDS: +210
BET: 9u
RETURN: 27.91u

 

BET #2
+ Beneil Dariush  To WIN -189
+ Junior Dos Santos  To WIN -192
ODDS: +133
BET: 6u
RETURN: 13.95u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Sergio Moraes  To WIN +185
ODDS: +185
BET: 4u
RETURN: 11.4u

 

BET #2
+ Yana Kunitskaya  To WIN -180
+ Grant Dawson  To WIN -170
ODDS: +147
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9.88u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Tim Boetsch  To WIN +123
+ Ben Rothwell  To WIN -110
ODDS: +326
BET: 3u
RETURN: 12.77u

 

BET #2
+ Alex White  To WIN -135
+ Louis Smolka  To WIN -120
ODDS: +219
BET: 3u
RETURN: 9.57u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Ben Rothwell  to Win by Decision +340
ODDS: +340
BET: 2u
RETURN: 8.8u

 

BET #2
+ Grant Dawson  Wins Inside the Distance +115
+ Louis Smolka  to Win inside the Distance +190
ODDS: +524
BET: 2u
RETURN: 12.47u

BET #3
+ Curtis Millender  To WIN -105
+ Ben Rothwell To WIN -110
+ Grant Dawson  To WIN -170
ODDS: +492
BET: 3u
RETURN: 17.76u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Curtis Millender  To WIN -105
+ Alex Morono  To WIN -170
+ Beneil Dariush 
To WIN -189
ODDS: +374
BET: 9u
RETURN: 42.67u

Silver Plays

BET #2
+ Yana Kunitskaya  To WIN -180
+ Sergio Moraes  To WIN +185
+ Grant Dawson  To WIN -170
ODDS: +604
BET: 7u
RETURN: 49.29u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Tim Boetsch  To WIN +123
+ Ben Rothwell  To WIN -110
+ Junior Dos Santos  To WIN -192
ODDS: +547
BET: 5u
RETURN: 32.37u

 

BET #2
+ Alex White  To WIN -135
+ Louis Smolka  To WIN -120
+ Curtis Millender 
To WIN -105
ODDS: +523
BET: 5u
RETURN: 31.15u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Ben Rothwell  to Win by Decision +340
+ Jeff Hughes  to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +280
ODDS: +1572
BET: 4u
RETURN: 66.88u

 

BET #2
+ Louis Smolka  to Win inside the Distance +190
+ Grant Dawson  to Wins Inside the Distance +115
+ Alex White to win by TKO/KO/DQ +280
ODDS: +2269
BET: 4u
RETURN: 94.77u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Tim Boetsch  $7700
+ Sergio Moraes $7000
+ Louis Smolka $8300
+ Junior Dos Santos $9400
+ Alex White $8600
+ Grant Dawson $8700

Spares

+ Curtis Millender $8200
+ Tim Means $8800
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Derrick Lewis +185 vs Junior Dos Santos -192

The line on Junior is climbing and not in a good way. He opened somewhere around the -145 mark and has steadily pushed up to and beyond -200 on most sites. JDS has more ways to this one, but that is usually the case with most of Lewis’s opponents. I was looking at Cigano as a legit top play for the night, but more and more he is slipping to the low end of the Gold Bets. There are a lot of options on this card, he will most likely be a secondary gold play or left off altogether.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I do have JDS in my lineup. He will have plenty of scoring potential with either a finish or a decent volume rate over 5-rounds. Maybe a combo of the 2. Add him.

Curtis Millender -105 vs Elizeu Dos Santos +100

Here is my #1 play of the night. Both these guys are red hot right now, but Millender is my man. The line has moved a bit, but it has stayed relatively close. Millender simply has more weapons and if he can avoiding taking that big fight-changing shot, this is his fight to win. I was concerned a little about the takedowns, but hat is a risk worth taking. Gold Play capable of being played alone or paired with another strong pick in the HBC.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Millender is affordable and while his finish numbers aren’t great, he is a solid add as a spare option. I took Smolka over Millender based on the finish history of their respective opponents. Curits could be the one to put EDS down, but he is still pretty darn tough.

Niko Price +185 vs Tim Means -199

This fight opened as a near pick’em, but the line has swung heavily towards The Dirty Bird. Similar to JDS, at the open Means was a reasonable play, but more and more I will be looking to my other Silver bets for the bulk of my investments. Means is the better fighter, but his history in close fights is difficult to invest in at this price. Silver Play or Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Means in my spare list, but I am not sure how often he gets the call here. He is capable of getting the finish and while Price has been stopped, he is pretty tough. Move him in for a secondary lineup, but nothing too in-depth.

Ben Rothwell -110 vs Blagoy Ivanov -110

This fight is nearly even with some slight fluctuation depending on the site. Rothwell is coming off a massive layoff which is a major concern, but I find that similar to age at HW, the layoff might not be that big of a factor. I simply was not impressed ith Ivanov in his debut or even his previous fights. He can’t afford to be patient and sit on the outside. He will get picked apart. Rothwell is big and durable so unless Ivanov ups his output, he is going to struggle here. The layoff makes Ben a top Bronze Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I see this fight going the distance. I will look elsewhere.

Beneil Dariush -189 vs Drew Dober +175

I like Dober, but I see a guy like Dariush as his ceiling. One of the key’s to Dober’s success has been the addition of wrestling to his attack. That won’t be an option here. He could knock Dariush out, but I feel it is more likely that Dariush grinds him along the cage and takes him down on route to a decision. Dariush has dipped a little, but he is still a play I really like here. He is a Gold Play option, potentially linked with JDS if I opted to play Millender and Morono together.

Draft-Kings-Logo

A submission is possible, but I will go with a couple of other options.

Omari Akhmedov -130 vs Tim Boetsch +123

Boetsch is sitting between +120 and +135, he opened around +170. So he has dropped a little in volume, but I like him here. I have never been a big fan of Alhmedov and feel that he will struggle here, especially if he goes for the early finish and can’t get it. Tim survives the early exchanges and goes to work in rounds 2 and 3. I like him as Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I will toss Timmy into my lineup. He has big stopping power and if Sergio Moraes can knock Omari out, so can Tim. He most likely wins this fight via stoppage. Add him.

Anthony Martin -200 vs Sergio Moraes +185

I love this fight. Both guys do good work on the mat and will trade on the feet. I had Tony against Matthews, but I felt he was struggling a bit before he got the finish. Unless he can hurt Moraes, Sergio is going to push forward and attack. Martin won’t want to go to the mat, even from top position it is too much of a risk. I expect to see Sergio get him down at some point and go to work. Strong Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Sergio is super cheap and stands a great chance of submitting Martin or at working him with punches in bunches. His price tag allows us financial freedom and the finish potential is there.

Marion Reneau +165 vs Yana Kunitskaya -180

Yana started out around -150 and has dropped in value just a bit. It is hard to look passed Reneau’s ability to catch subs off her back and her heavy punches. She could certainly grab a finish here. Yana is the more active and complete fighter and has shown the skills needed to exploit the gaps in Marion’s defence. Kunitskaya nearly got the call in the Gold set, but I want to see a little more out of here. Silver Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Grinding decision, maybe with some takedowns. I will pass.

Grant Dawson -170 vs Julian Erosa +160

Erosa just doesn’t have what it takes to win consistently at this level. Maybe he proves me wrong tomorrow night. Erosa is defensively flawed in most areas and Dawson is a monster on the mat. If he gets Erosa down he could pound him out, he could sub him, or he could grind his way to a decision. GD is debuting and coming off a layoff, but I like him in the Silver section. I know, we are looking at 4 plays per section for this card.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Dawson isn’t cheap, but his skill set combined with Erosa’s history makes a finish a legit possibility. Add him.

Jeff Hughes -210 vs Maurice Greene +201

This is a rematch with a debut and a short notice replacement. That is a lot to unpack and too much to risk money on. We will invest elsewhere. Pass.

Draft-Kings-Logo

The same here. Hughes could get a finish, but the first fight went the distance.

Louis Smolka -120 vs Matt Schnell +110

Smolka was a big favourite at the open, close to -210. At least it was big compared to where they sit now. Schnell has been knocked out a couple of times and Smolka’s grappling attack is relentless. Louis has more ways to win this fight. Louis’s recognized that he has had some demons in his past, let’s hope he is over them. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Smolka can put up a lot of volume with his strikes, takedowns, and transitions in addition to a submission or TKO finish. Add him.

Alex White -135 vs Dan Moret +135

White has struggled to find his footing in the UFC. But, he has a couple of wins and that is more than Moret can say. Dan has struggled against next level opposition and White is a step up from the level of opposition he has defeat. White started out around -175 so we are getting a decent return. Bronze play for White until he starts picking up wins at this level.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Moret has been finished on a couple of occasions and White hits hard enough to add to the list. I like him. Add him.

Alex Morono -170 vs Zak Ottow +160

Ottow has never shown that he really belongs on the roster. Morono has. Alex has shown he can put it on a low-level opponent and is a tough out. Ottow’s only course of action here is to win this fight with takedowns. I don’t see that happening here, at least without Zak putting forth his best UFC performance. Morono outworks him and potentially finishes him. I don’t like to open with a Gold play, but I will here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Morono is a little costly for a potential decision. I would play him around $8600, but not at $9100. Pass.

 

Confidence List

1. Alex Morono -170

2. Curtis Millender -105

3. Beneil Dariush -189

4. Junior Dos Santos -192

5. Grant Dawson -170

====================

6. Yana Kunitskaya -180

7. Jeff Hughes -210

8. Louis Smolka -120

9. Tim Means -199

10. Sergio Moraes +185

11. Ben Rothwell -110

12. Alex White -135

13. Tim Boetsch +123

 

Value Bet List

1. Sergio Moraes +185

2. Curtis Millender -105

3. Tim Boetsch +123

4. Louis Smolka -120

5. Ben Rothwell -110

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

EPU Candidate(s)

1. Alex White to win by TKO/KO/DQ +280

Moret is coming off a pretty rough knockout loss, the second of his career. If he can’t get White to the floor, Alex hits pretty hard and will have a marked advantage over Moret on the feet. I like White to press forward and find the mark for his 3rd UFC knockout.

2. Alex Morono/Zak Ottow

I will pass here. Morono could get a finish with volume or simply because Ottow isn’t that most durable fighter, but I think we see this fight go to the cards under most circumstances.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
8
11
12
3 of 12 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
126650%

FPO Candidate

1. Anthony Martin/Sergio Moraes

Moraes could get a finish or Martin could be good enough to hang on for a full 15-minutes. I am on the dog already, I won’t overcomplicate things.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
115645%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
82625%

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Curtis Millender -105 vs Elizeu Dos Santos +100

2. Ben Rothwell -110 vs Blagoy Ivanov -110

3. Omari Akhmedov -130 vs Tim Boetsch +123[/y]

4. Louis Smolka -120 vs Matt Schnell +110

5. Alex White -135 vs Dan Moret +135

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
66293744%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
178958353%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
66303645%

 

Prop Bets

Ben Rothwell to Win by Decision +340

Ivanov is pretty durable and while Rothwell hits hard, he picks his spots. I expect to see periods of inactivity in this fight as both men look for their openings. Rothwell will outwork Blagoy, but it won’t be by that much and will most likely take him to the cards.

Anthony Martin/Sergio Moraes

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Grant Dawson Wins Inside the Distance +115

Erosa has been knocked out in 3 of his 6 losses. He has never been subbed, but he can be taken down. If he can be taken down Dawson can go to work on the mat. Dawson has never seen the scorecards in his career. Erosa is a good opponent to continue that streak against.

Jeff Hughes to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +280

This is a rematch from a fight that went the distance not that long ago. I don’t track this trend anymore, but I still think it holds a lot of validity. They know each other and will have learned something from the first time around. Greene is coming in on short notice and if Hughes can push him hard, he gets him out of there. I like a much shorter fight than their first 5-round encounter.

Louis Smolka to Win inside the Distance +190

Smolka is constantly working towards a finish and Schnell has been stopped on a couple of occasions. If Smolka gets him on the floor, a TKO or submission is never far away. This should be a fun scrap. I like Smolka inside the distance.

Alex White/Dan Moret

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Alex Morono/Zak Ottow

See the Betting Scenario Section.