• in Latest, Main Card, Mixed Martial Arts, Previous Posts, Sports Bets, UFC

What is old is new again. The former Heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos took a massive step towards another shot at the title. The Brazilian upended recent title challenger Derrick Lewis in an entertaining sub-two round main event.

In addition to the headlining event, there were multiple entertaining fights and some questionable decisions by the judges. Let’s take a look in our Winners and Losers from Saturday night.

Winners

Junior dos Santos

JDS avoided the constant danger of Lewis’s unconventional offence, eventually finding the mark and overwhelming “The Black Beast”. With a win over the #3 ranked fighter in the division, JDS will move closer to the top of the division. With a trio of wins for “Cigano” and the Heavyweight division in search of future contenders, Dos Santos is on the cusp of another shot at the gold.

Elizeu dos Santos

The Welterweight dos Santos continued his push into the upper echelon of the already stacked Welterweight division. Elizeu made short work of an equally as hot opponent by exploiting a clear gap in his arsenal. The Brazilian is a dangerous striker and showcased both his Fight IQ and improving mat game- he is in for a big fight next time out.

Niko Price

What a fight! Price might not always win and he may never work his way into the title conversation, but he is must-see-tv! He was on the cusp of becoming a part of Tim Means’ Highlight reel but turned the tables in brutal fashion.

Despite the loss and the unfortunate leg break suffer by Means, I don’t consider him a loser as he remains an exciting action fighter that the fans want to see.

Beneil Dariush

A loss against Dober would have been curtains for Dariush as a top-ranked fighter. With back to back wins, Dariush is still a work in progress and needs to clean up his striking defence, but at the very least he avoided a nasty knockout loss.

Anthony Rocco Martin

Rocco Martin has the potential to be a handful for a large portion of the fighters in the Welterweight division. He is a dangerous grappler with improving striking. He is closing a shot at a ranked fighter.

Losers

The Judges

They weren’t great. I have seen much worse, but the judges were far from on point on Saturday. Rothwell should have earned the nod over Blagoy. Almost all the media gave it to “Big” Ben, some scoring it 30-27. The Reneau/Kuniskaya decision was a little better as it seemed like Yana got the better of the first two rounds before Marion took over. Nonetheless, I can see why many would disagree.

Curtis Millender

Despite his talent on the feet, his defensive grappling needs to be improved and needs to be improved soon. With multiple grapplers and wrestlers spread through the Welterweight ranks, Millender’s ceiling is limited until he makes the needed adjustments.

Drew Dober

I don’t like putting Dober here, but this is a tough one for him. He was putting together a pretty solid fight and had Dariush in some trouble early. This would have easily been the biggest win of his career and while his stock won’t drop that much this is a pretty unfortunate swing and a miss.

Sergio Moraes

Just not a good performance. He looked disinterested and frustrated. Sergio showed just enough to suggest he could have found success with more urgency, but he certainly did not deserve the win.

Julian Erosa

It was a fairly entertaining fight, but Erosa is just not UFC calibre. He has struggled to find success at this level and against a young debuting opponent that appeared to be fading, Erosa still couldn’t get it going. He might get another shot but his back is against the wall.

Louis Smolka

Smolka was just too willing to accept a bad position and while it has worked for him in previous fights, it was a costly mistake here. Smolka is still very entertaining, but if the 125-pound division is done Louis is going to struggle to make much noise if he can’t get by Matt Schnell.

Neither

Derrick Lewis

The loss won’t hurt Lewis much and will be quickly forgotten with a future win. Derrick suffered from a post-title fight letdown but did so in an incredibly entertaining way. It has been recently revealed that Lewis was fighting hurt which makes his loss even more tolerable. Either way, he will be back.

Ben Rothwell

That was a decent performance following a near 3-year layoff. I felt he did enough to deserve the win, but I guess that wasn’t the case in the eyes of those that matter. Hopefully, he can turn around shortly and get back in the cage.

Final Thoughts

I felt like my reads weren’t that far off, but the areas of concern that I had were exploited, especially in the Millender fight. Smolka didn’t get out of danger and paid for it. Hughes suffered from just enough Octagon shock to let Greene get the better of him. Boetsch didn’t push hard enough early and was too far behind once he did engage. My Bet Pack fell just short on a couple of key bets despite hit on a pair of parlays. Not a great way to follow up UFC 235, but we get to turn around and do it all again next weekend.

 

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Curtis Millender	To WIN	-105
+ Alex Morono	To WIN	-170
		ODDS:	+210
		BET:	9u
		RETURN:	27.91u

 

BET #2
+ Beneil Dariush	To WIN	-189
+ Junior Dos Santos	To WIN	-192
		ODDS:	+133
		BET:	6u
		RETURN:	13.95u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Sergio Moraes	To WIN	+185
		ODDS:	+185
		BET:	4u
		RETURN:	11.4u

 

BET #2
+ Yana Kunitskaya	To WIN	-180
+ Grant Dawson	To WIN	-170
		ODDS:	+147
		BET:	4u
		RETURN:	9.88u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Tim Boetsch	To WIN	+123
+ Ben Rothwell	To WIN	-110
		ODDS:	+326
		BET:	3u
		RETURN:	12.77u

 

BET #2
+ Alex White	To WIN	-135
+ Louis Smolka	To WIN	-120
		ODDS:	+219
		BET:	3u
		RETURN:	9.57u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Ben Rothwell	to Win by Decision	+340
		ODDS:	+340
		BET:	2u
		RETURN:	8.8u

 

BET #2
+ Grant Dawson	Wins Inside the Distance	+115
+ Louis Smolka	to Win inside the Distance	+190
		ODDS:	+524
		BET:	2u
		RETURN:	12.47u

BET #3
+ Curtis Millender	To WIN	-105
+ Ben Rothwell	To WIN	-110
+ Grant Dawson	To WIN	-170
		ODDS:	+492
		BET:	3u
		RETURN:	17.76u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Curtis Millender	To WIN	-105
+ Alex Morono	To WIN	-170
+ Beneil Dariush	To WIN	-189
		ODDS:	+374
		BET:	9u
		RETURN:	42.67u

Silver Plays

BET #2
+ Yana Kunitskaya	To WIN	-180
+ Sergio Moraes	To WIN	+185
+ Grant Dawson	To WIN	-170
		ODDS:	+604
		BET:	7u
		RETURN:	49.29u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Tim Boetsch	To WIN	+123
+ Ben Rothwell	To WIN	-110
+ Junior Dos Santos	To WIN	-192
		ODDS:	+547
		BET:	5u
		RETURN:	32.37u

 

BET #2
+ Alex White	To WIN	-135
+ Louis Smolka	To WIN	-120
+ Curtis Millender	To WIN	-105
		ODDS:	+523
		BET:	5u
		RETURN:	31.15u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Ben Rothwell	to Win by Decision	+340
+ Jeff Hughes	to Win by TKO/KO/DQ	+280
		ODDS:	+1572
		BET:	4u
		RETURN:	66.88u

 

BET #2
+ Louis Smolka	to Win inside the Distance	+190
+ Grant Dawson	to Wins Inside the Distance	+115
+ Alex White	to win by TKO/KO/DQ	+280
		ODDS:	+2269
		BET:	4u
		RETURN:	94.77u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Tim Boetsch	$7700
+ Sergio Moraes	$7000
+ Louis Smolka	$8300
+ Junior Dos Santos	$9400
+ Alex White	$8600
+ Grant Dawson	$8700

Spares

+ Curtis Millender	$8200
+ Tim Means	$8800
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Derrick Lewis +185 vs Junior Dos Santos -192

The line on Junior is climbing and not in a good way. He opened somewhere around the -145 mark and has steadily pushed up to and beyond -200 on most sites. JDS has more ways to this one, but that is usually the case with most of Lewis’s opponents. I was looking at Cigano as a legit top play for the night, but more and more he is slipping to the low end of the Gold Bets. There are a lot of options on this card, he will most likely be a secondary gold play or left off altogether.

I do have JDS in my lineup. He will have plenty of scoring potential with either a finish or a decent volume rate over 5-rounds. Maybe a combo of the 2. Add him.

Curtis Millender -105 vs Elizeu Dos Santos +100

Here is my #1 play of the night. Both these guys are red hot right now, but Millender is my man. The line has moved a bit, but it has stayed relatively close. Millender simply has more weapons and if he can avoiding taking that big fight-changing shot, this is his fight to win. I was concerned a little about the takedowns, but hat is a risk worth taking. Gold Play capable of being played alone or paired with another strong pick in the HBC.

Millender is affordable and while his finish numbers aren’t great, he is a solid add as a spare option. I took Smolka over Millender based on the finish history of their respective opponents. Curits could be the one to put EDS down, but he is still pretty darn tough.

Niko Price +185 vs Tim Means -199

This fight opened as a near pick’em, but the line has swung heavily towards The Dirty Bird. Similar to JDS, at the open Means was a reasonable play, but more and more I will be looking to my other Silver bets for the bulk of my investments. Means is the better fighter, but his history in close fights is difficult to invest in at this price. Silver Play or Pass.

I have Means in my spare list, but I am not sure how often he gets the call here. He is capable of getting the finish and while Price has been stopped, he is pretty tough. Move him in for a secondary lineup, but nothing too in-depth.

Ben Rothwell -110 vs Blagoy Ivanov -110

This fight is nearly even with some slight fluctuation depending on the site. Rothwell is coming off a massive layoff which is a major concern, but I find that similar to age at HW, the layoff might not be that big of a factor. I simply was not impressed ith Ivanov in his debut or even his previous fights. He can’t afford to be patient and sit on the outside. He will get picked apart. Rothwell is big and durable so unless Ivanov ups his output, he is going to struggle here. The layoff makes Ben a top Bronze Play.

I see this fight going the distance. I will look elsewhere.

Beneil Dariush -189 vs Drew Dober +175

I like Dober, but I see a guy like Dariush as his ceiling. One of the key’s to Dober’s success has been the addition of wrestling to his attack. That won’t be an option here. He could knock Dariush out, but I feel it is more likely that Dariush grinds him along the cage and takes him down on route to a decision. Dariush has dipped a little, but he is still a play I really like here. He is a Gold Play option, potentially linked with JDS if I opted to play Millender and Morono together.

A submission is possible, but I will go with a couple of other options.

Omari Akhmedov -130 vs Tim Boetsch +123

Boetsch is sitting between +120 and +135, he opened around +170. So he has dropped a little in volume, but I like him here. I have never been a big fan of Alhmedov and feel that he will struggle here, especially if he goes for the early finish and can’t get it. Tim survives the early exchanges and goes to work in rounds 2 and 3. I like him as Bronze play.

I will toss Timmy into my lineup. He has big stopping power and if Sergio Moraes can knock Omari out, so can Tim. He most likely wins this fight via stoppage. Add him.

Anthony Martin -200 vs Sergio Moraes +185

I love this fight. Both guys do good work on the mat and will trade on the feet. I had Tony against Matthews, but I felt he was struggling a bit before he got the finish. Unless he can hurt Moraes, Sergio is going to push forward and attack. Martin won’t want to go to the mat, even from top position it is too much of a risk. I expect to see Sergio get him down at some point and go to work. Strong Silver play.

Sergio is super cheap and stands a great chance of submitting Martin or at working him with punches in bunches. His price tag allows us financial freedom and the finish potential is there.

Marion Reneau +165 vs Yana Kunitskaya -180

Yana started out around -150 and has dropped in value just a bit. It is hard to look passed Reneau’s ability to catch subs off her back and her heavy punches. She could certainly grab a finish here. Yana is the more active and complete fighter and has shown the skills needed to exploit the gaps in Marion’s defence. Kunitskaya nearly got the call in the Gold set, but I want to see a little more out of here. Silver Play.

Grinding decision, maybe with some takedowns. I will pass.

Grant Dawson -170 vs Julian Erosa +160

Erosa just doesn’t have what it takes to win consistently at this level. Maybe he proves me wrong tomorrow night. Erosa is defensively flawed in most areas and Dawson is a monster on the mat. If he gets Erosa down he could pound him out, he could sub him, or he could grind his way to a decision. GD is debuting and coming off a layoff, but I like him in the Silver section. I know, we are looking at 4 plays per section for this card.

Dawson isn’t cheap, but his skill set combined with Erosa’s history makes a finish a legit possibility. Add him.

Jeff Hughes -210 vs Maurice Greene +201

This is a rematch with a debut and a short notice replacement. That is a lot to unpack and too much to risk money on. We will invest elsewhere. Pass.

The same here. Hughes could get a finish, but the first fight went the distance.

Louis Smolka -120 vs Matt Schnell +110

Smolka was a big favourite at the open, close to -210. At least it was big compared to where they sit now. Schnell has been knocked out a couple of times and Smolka’s grappling attack is relentless. Louis has more ways to win this fight. Louis’s recognized that he has had some demons in his past, let’s hope he is over them. Bronze play.

Smolka can put up a lot of volume with his strikes, takedowns, and transitions in addition to a submission or TKO finish. Add him.

Alex White -135 vs Dan Moret +135

White has struggled to find his footing in the UFC. But, he has a couple of wins and that is more than Moret can say. Dan has struggled against next level opposition and White is a step up from the level of opposition he has defeat. White started out around -175 so we are getting a decent return. Bronze play for White until he starts picking up wins at this level.

Moret has been finished on a couple of occasions and White hits hard enough to add to the list. I like him. Add him.

Alex Morono -170 vs Zak Ottow +160

Ottow has never shown that he really belongs on the roster. Morono has. Alex has shown he can put it on a low-level opponent and is a tough out. Ottow’s only course of action here is to win this fight with takedowns. I don’t see that happening here, at least without Zak putting forth his best UFC performance. Morono outworks him and potentially finishes him. I don’t like to open with a Gold play, but I will here.

Morono is a little costly for a potential decision. I would play him around $8600, but not at $9100. Pass.

 

Confidence List

1. Alex Morono -170

2. Curtis Millender -105

3. Beneil Dariush -189

4. Junior Dos Santos -192

5. Grant Dawson -170

====================

6. Yana Kunitskaya -180

7. Jeff Hughes -210

8. Louis Smolka -120

9. Tim Means -199

10. Sergio Moraes +185

11. Ben Rothwell -110

12. Alex White -135

13. Tim Boetsch +123

 

Value Bet List

1. Sergio Moraes +185

2. Curtis Millender -105

3. Tim Boetsch +123

4. Louis Smolka -120

5. Ben Rothwell -110

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

EPU Candidate(s)

1. Alex White to win by TKO/KO/DQ +280

Moret is coming off a pretty rough knockout loss, the second of his career. If he can’t get White to the floor, Alex hits pretty hard and will have a marked advantage over Moret on the feet. I like White to press forward and find the mark for his 3rd UFC knockout.

2. Alex Morono/Zak Ottow

I will pass here. Morono could get a finish with volume or simply because Ottow isn’t that most durable fighter, but I think we see this fight go to the cards under most circumstances.

EPU	Under 1.5	Under 2.5	Over 2.5	Over x2
2014	42	46	46	11 of 46 Events
2015	28	35	42	10 of 39 Events
2016	28	38	41	11 of 41 Events
2017	27	40	35	8 of 38 Events
2018	26	35	30	8 of 33 Events
2019	18	27	49	15 of 39 Events
2020	12	16	23	7 of 22 Events
	FP	W	L	Win %
2015 Picks	47	24	23	51%
2016 Picks	55	31	24	56%
2017 Picks	47	20	27	43%
2018 Picks	42	25	17	60%
2019 Picks	32	13	19	41%
2020 Picks	23	8	15	35%

FPO Candidate

1. Anthony Martin/Sergio Moraes

Moraes could get a finish or Martin could be good enough to hang on for a full 15-minutes. I am on the dog already, I won’t overcomplicate things.

Final Prelim	FP	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Over %
2014	46	30	16	65%
2015	36	16	20	44%
2016	39	26	13	67%
2017	34	25	9	74%
2018	33	22	11	67%
2019	38	23	15	61%
2020	19	11	8	58%
	FP	W	L	Win %
2015 Picks	29	12	17	41%
2016 Picks	35	17	18	49%
2017 Picks	29	12	17	41%
2018 Picks	31	13	18	42%
2019 Picks	30	9	21	30%
2020 Picks	10	4	6	40%

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Curtis Millender -105 vs Elizeu Dos Santos +100

2. Ben Rothwell -110 vs Blagoy Ivanov -110

3. Omari Akhmedov -130 vs Tim Boetsch +123[/y]

4. Louis Smolka -120 vs Matt Schnell +110

5. Alex White -135 vs Dan Moret +135

HEFs	FP	W	L	WIN %
2015	177	93	84	53%
2016	212	106	106	50%
2017	179	110	69	61%
2018	192	100	92	52%
2019	217	100	117	46%
2020	102	52	50	51%
	FP	W	L	Win %
2015 Picks	181	97	84	54%
2016 Picks	212	108	104	51%
2017 Picks	179	87	92	49%
2018 Picks	192	95	97	49%
2019 Picks	211	110	101	52%
2020 Picks	102	46	56	45%

 

Prop Bets

Ben Rothwell to Win by Decision +340

Ivanov is pretty durable and while Rothwell hits hard, he picks his spots. I expect to see periods of inactivity in this fight as both men look for their openings. Rothwell will outwork Blagoy, but it won’t be by that much and will most likely take him to the cards.

Anthony Martin/Sergio Moraes

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Grant Dawson Wins Inside the Distance +115

Erosa has been knocked out in 3 of his 6 losses. He has never been subbed, but he can be taken down. If he can be taken down Dawson can go to work on the mat. Dawson has never seen the scorecards in his career. Erosa is a good opponent to continue that streak against.

Jeff Hughes to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +280

This is a rematch from a fight that went the distance not that long ago. I don’t track this trend anymore, but I still think it holds a lot of validity. They know each other and will have learned something from the first time around. Greene is coming in on short notice and if Hughes can push him hard, he gets him out of there. I like a much shorter fight than their first 5-round encounter.

Louis Smolka to Win inside the Distance +190

Smolka is constantly working towards a finish and Schnell has been stopped on a couple of occasions. If Smolka gets him on the floor, a TKO or submission is never far away. This should be a fun scrap. I like Smolka inside the distance.

Alex White/Dan Moret

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Alex Morono/Zak Ottow

See the Betting Scenario Section.