UFC Fight Nigh 165: Edgar vs Korean Zombie | Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight Nigh 165: Edgar vs Korean Zombie | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Seungwoo Choi to Win -275
+ Said Nurmagomedov  to Win -110
ODDS: +160
BET: 10u
RETURN: 26.03u

 

BET #2
+ Chan Sung Jung to Win  -169
+ Alexandre Pantoja  to Win -220
ODDS: +132
BET: 8u
RETURN: 18.52u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Volkan Oezdemir  to Win +135
ODDS: +135
BET: 6u
RETURN: 14.1u

 

BET #2
+ Da Un Jung to Win  +105
ODDS: +105
BET: 6u
RETURN: 12.3u

 

BET #3
+ Jun Yong Park  to Win +115
+ Dooho Choi  to Win -295
ODDS: +188
BET: 5u
RETURN: 14.39u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Kyung Ho Kang to Win  -250
+ Heili Alateng  to Win +103
ODDS: +184
BET: 4u
RETURN: 11.37u

 

BET #2
+ Miranda Granger  to Win -181
+ Omar Morales  to Win -185
ODDS: +139
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9.57u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Omar Morales  to Win by TKO/KO +125
+ Ciryl Gane  to Win Inside the Distance -135
ODDS: +292
BET: 5u
RETURN: 19.58u

 

BET #2
+ Dooho Choi  to Win by TKO/KO +140
+ Seungwoo Choi  to Win by TKO/KO +170
ODDS: +548
BET: 5u
RETURN: 32.4u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Seungwoo Choi to Win -275
+ Chan Sung Jung to Win  -169
+ Said Nurmagomedov  to Win -110
ODDS: +314
BET: 10u
RETURN: 41.44u

 

BET #2
+ Alexandre Pantoja  to Win -220
+ Chan Sung Jung to Win  -169
+ Said Nurmagomedov  to Win -110
ODDS: +342
BET: 10u
RETURN: 44.2u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Volkan Oezdemir  to Win +135
+ Da Un Jung to Win +105
+ Jun Yong Park  to Win +115
ODDS: +936
BET: 6u
RETURN: 62.15u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Kyung Ho Kang to Win  -250
+ Heili Alateng  to Win +103
+ Miranda Granger  to Win -181
+ Omar Morales  to Win -185
ODDS: +580
BET: 5u
RETURN: 33.99u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Omar Morales  to Win by TKO/KO +125
+ Ciryl Gane  to Win Inside the Distance -135
+ Said Nurmagomedov  to Win -110
ODDS: +648
BET: 5u
RETURN: 37.39u

 

BET #2
+ Dooho Choi  to Win by TKO/KO +140
+ Seungwoo Choi  to Win by TKO/KO +170
+ Volkan Oezdemir  to Win +135
ODDS: +1423
BET: 5u
RETURN: 76.14u

 

BET #3
+ Chan Sung Jung to Win  -169
+ Da Un Jung to Win  +105
+ Jun Yong Park  to Win +115
+ Dooho Choi  to Win -295
ODDS: +839
BET: 6u
RETURN: 56.36u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Volkan Oezdmir  $7600
+ Da-Un Jung $7900
+ Omar Morales $8800
+ Said Nurmagomedov $7800
+ Ciryl Gane $9600
+ Heili Alateng $8000

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Frankie Edgar +159 vs Chan Sung Jung -169

The line is hardly moving which is a lot to do with Edgar’s name. It is hard to underestimate Frankie, especially in non-title fights. I like KZ as the bigger fighter at home to make it tough for Frankie to get in range. Unless KZ completely gasses, he should be able to do enough consistent work over the duration of the fight to earn the nod or possibly finish Edgar. I like KZ as Gold play. If he is going to make another run this is his spot to do it.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Frankie has been a tough out and KZ is expensive. Pass.

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Volkan Oezdemir +135 vs Aleksandar Rakic -142

Volk is a solid pick here. He is the more battle-tested fighter and he is trending in the right direction. Fighting DC, Smith, and Reyes provided him with solid experience. It showed against Latifi. Rakic looked good against Ledet who is winless at LHW, Clark who is a big MW, and Manuwa who was at the end. Oezdemir continues to make strides here against a Rakic who is good, but is facing his toughest opponent yet. Silver play for Oezdemir.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Rakic is hittable and Oezdemir can finish. He is very affordable and frees up some cash for us to spend elsewhere. Add him.

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Dooho Choi -295 vs Charles Jourdain +280

Choi is back off a long layoff which is preventing a top play here. He is looking to rebound from 2 losses against much better opposition than he is facing here. Jourdain is an ideal opponent for him to ease back into competition. He is also fight at home which is huge. Silver play for Choi as an addon bet. Not the worst play to leave off your card if you want to minimize your overall fight involvement.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I think Choi could return to his finishing ways, but he is going to cost you and hurt your other options. Pass/

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Da Un Jung +105 vs Mike Rodriguez -115

The line swing on this fight is crazy. Jung opened around -400 and is now the slight underdog. Rodriguez looks like a monster, but so far he is a 1 and done type monster that is in serious trouble outside of R1. If he cleans that up, different story. Jung capitalized on a fighter when he gassed out. He does the same here against a guy that will struggle with the road trip. I nearly pulled the Gold paly for Jung, but we will go strong Silver.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Jung is a tad under $8000 and showed he knows how to finish. That potential should be there again against a fighter that tires and has issues on the mat. Add him.

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Marc-Andre Barriault -121 vs Jun Yong Park +115

Barriault is scrappy, but he hasn’t done enough to win either fight. Park will oblige him in a fight that he enjoys. It should be a close fight and with Park fighting at home, I like that advantage. Tough luck for the Canadain. JYP beats MAB and I have him in my Silver plays.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Barriault is a tough out. I will pass here.

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Kyung Ho Kang -250 vs Liu Pingyuan +230

I like Kang. This should be a solid scrap. Pingyuan will rebound here from his last fight, but I don’t think he will do enough. That being said, the line isn’t worth the risk. We are looking at Bronze or nothing here.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Kang could score a finish and Liu was stopped last time out. He is still expensive. Pass.

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Tanner Boser +540 vs Ciryl Gane -550

This is clearly a No Play. I will look into a prop option further down the page.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Gane has proven impressive and with the savings, we have made, we can spend big on him as a key part of our lineup.

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Suman Mokhtarian +255 vs Seungwoo Choi -275

Mokhtarian should not be in the UFC. He along with his brother and a couple of other underserved fighters got the call after facing a pile of inexperienced, several 0-1, opponents. He goes up against a more capable fighter who has skilled and while he is also winless in the promotion, Choi is the far better option. I feel like the line should be a lot higher- closer to -350. Gold play to compliment our other options.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I wanted to toss Choi into the game as she should finish his foe, but he is expensive and Gane is the better high priced option.

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Dong Hyun Ma +177 vs Omar Morales -185

Morales is debuting against a fun, but flawed opponent. Ma is at home which is huge and he has skills that could guide him to a win, but he normally forgoes those. Morales is creeping up from the original open around -150, but I think he is still worth the inclusion in the Bronze section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Morales is a finisher and Ma has been stopped in all of his UFC losses. That is enough for me. Add him

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Alexandre Pantoja -220 vs Matt Schnell +205

Schnell has fought very well of late and we have cashed in. I see that ending now against a tough opponent that appears to be better than him everywhere. Pantoja will avoid Schnell’s subs, hold top position, and win the majority of the striking exchanges. I like Pantoja in my Gold plays.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Pantoja is in line for a finish, but I went with the bigger hitter in Gane as my high-end option.

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Raoni Barcelos +100 vs Said Nurmagomedov -110

This should be a good scrap. Nurmagomdov opened around -160/-150 and has steadily increased in volume to the point that this fight is a near pick’em. Look for his longer striking attack to be the key here as Raoni fails to close the gap frequently enough to win this fight. Gold play for Said.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Said is a Fantasy dog. He is coming off a finish against another top opponent and could do the same here, especially if he finds the body. Add him.

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Miranda Granger -181 vs Amanda Lemos +165

Granger opened around -350. That is enough by itself to make her the play. Adding to it- Lemos has been out long term. She was suspended for PED use. She is coming down in weight. She has a history of short fights. She gassed badly in her last fight. And finally, she is traveling which complicates everything further. Granger needs to be active, but mindful early, and then take over once Lemos starts to slow. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

We could see a finish here, but in WMMA it is far less common and the price is pretty high for that level of uncertainty.

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Heili Alateng +103 vs Ryan Benoit -110

I’m not a fan of Benoit. He has some tools, but has done nothing to improve since he came to the UFC. His cardio is garbage, he has been out for 2+ years, and he is on the road. He is also moving up to BW. Alateng can put on a decent pace and should test his cardio. He is still unproven himself. We are getting some value here. Bronze play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Alateng in my lineup. He is affordable and Benoit can be finished, especially if he gasses out. Add him.

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Confidence List

1. Ciryl Gane -550

2. Alexandre Pantoja -220

3. Seungwoo Choi -275

4. Dooho Choi -295

5. Kyung Ho Kang -250

====================

6. Said Nurmagomedov -110

7. Miranda Granger -181

8. Chan Sung Jung -169

9. Da Un Jung +105

10. Volkan Oezdemir +135

11. Jun Yong Park +115

12. Omar Morales -185

13. Heili Alateng +103

 

Value Bet List

1. Da Un Jung +105

2. Volkan Oezdemir +135

3. Jun Yong Park +115

4. Heili Alateng +103

5. Said Nurmagomedov -110

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Miranda Granger/Amanda Lemos

I could see Lemos get finished is she tires. She could get the finish early if she comes out throwing heat. Or we go the distance as both girls slow a little. Let’s stick with just a winner.

2. Heili Alateng/Ryan Benoit

Similar here. I like Alateng anyway I can get him. Let’s not complicate things here.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
6
8
11
3 of 10 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
112918%

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FPO Candidate

1. Ciryl Gane to Win Inside the Distance -135

He has showcased his submission skills inside the Octagon and we already know he has a sound striking game. Let’s keep them both in play. The FPO has seen multiple finishes in this slot. I think it keeps going here.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
86275%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
52340%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Volkan Oezdemir +135 vs Aleksandar Rakic -142

2. Da Un Jung +105 vs Mike Rodriguez -115

3. Marc-Andre Barriault -121 vs Jun Yong Park +115

4. Raoni Barcelos +100 vs Said Nurmagomedov -110

5. Heili Alateng +103 vs Ryan Benoit -110

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
56263046%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
56292752%

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Prop Bets

Dooho Choi to Win by TKO/KO +140

Choi has significant power and is taking a step back in competition from his previous opponents. The layoff will help him to mature and fighting at home is huge. I didn’t expect to get a plus number here. Bet Accordingly.

Tanner Boser/Ciryl Gane

See the Betting Scenario Section

Seungwoo Choi to Win by TKO/KO +170

Choi’s opponent is no UFC level and got finished pretty quickly last time out. Similar to the other Choi on our card, fighting at home will motivate Seungwoo to put on a good performance against an overmatched foe.

Omar Morales to Win by TKO/KO +125

Morales hits hard and Ma is hittable. In fact, Ma seems to welcome it. He has been finished in all 4 of his UFC defeats. I have him as (maybe the only) unsuccessful home fighter on the card. Leg kicks and punching power gets it done for the new guy.

Miranda Granger/Amanda Lemos

See the Betting Scenario Section

Heili Alateng/Ryan Benoit

See the Betting Scenario Section

 

 

 

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