UFC Fight Nigh 165: Edgar vs Korean Zombie | Bet Pack Review
Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack
Parlays & Single Bets
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Seungwoo Choi | to Win | -275 |  |
| + Said Nurmagomedov | to Win | -110 |  |
| ODDS: | +160 | ||
| BET: | 10u | ||
| RETURN: | 26.03u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Chan Sung Jung | to Win | -169 | |
| + Alexandre Pantoja | to Win | -220 | |
| ODDS: | +132 | ||
| BET: | 8u | ||
| RETURN: | 18.52u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Volkan Oezdemir | to Win | +135 | |
| ODDS: | +135 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 14.1u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Da Un Jung | to Win | +105 | |
| ODDS: | +105 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 12.3u |
| BET #3 | |||
| + Jun Yong Park | to Win | +115 | |
| + Dooho Choi | to Win | -295 | |
| ODDS: | +188 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 14.39u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Kyung Ho Kang | to Win | -250 | |
| + Heili Alateng | to Win | +103 | |
| ODDS: | +184 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 11.37u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Miranda Granger | to Win | -181 | |
| + Omar Morales | to Win | -185 | |
| ODDS: | +139 | ||
| BET: | 4u | ||
| RETURN: | 9.57u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Omar Morales | to Win by TKO/KO | +125 | |
| + Ciryl Gane | to Win Inside the Distance | -135 | |
| ODDS: | +292 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 19.58u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Dooho Choi | to Win by TKO/KO | +140 | |
| + Seungwoo Choi | to Win by TKO/KO | +170 | |
| ODDS: | +548 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 32.4u |
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Seungwoo Choi | to Win | -275 | |
| + Chan Sung Jung | to Win | -169 | |
| + Said Nurmagomedov | to Win | -110 | |
| ODDS: | +314 | ||
| BET: | 10u | ||
| RETURN: | 41.44u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Alexandre Pantoja | to Win | -220 | |
| + Chan Sung Jung | to Win | -169 | |
| + Said Nurmagomedov | to Win | -110 | |
| ODDS: | +342 | ||
| BET: | 10u | ||
| RETURN: | 44.2u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Volkan Oezdemir | to Win | +135 | |
| + Da Un Jung | to Win | +105 | |
| + Jun Yong Park | to Win | +115 | |
| ODDS: | +936 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 62.15u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Kyung Ho Kang | to Win | -250 | |
| + Heili Alateng | to Win | +103 | |
| + Miranda Granger | to Win | -181 | |
| + Omar Morales | to Win | -185 | |
| ODDS: | +580 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 33.99u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 | |||
| + Omar Morales | to Win by TKO/KO | +125 | |
| + Ciryl Gane | to Win Inside the Distance | -135 | |
| + Said Nurmagomedov | to Win | -110 | |
| ODDS: | +648 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 37.39u |
| BET #2 | |||
| + Dooho Choi | to Win by TKO/KO | +140 | |
| + Seungwoo Choi | to Win by TKO/KO | +170 | |
| + Volkan Oezdemir | to Win | +135 | |
| ODDS: | +1423 | ||
| BET: | 5u | ||
| RETURN: | 76.14u |
| BET #3 | |||
| + Chan Sung Jung | to Win | -169 | |
| + Da Un Jung | to Win | +105 | |
| + Jun Yong Park | to Win | +115 | |
| + Dooho Choi | to Win | -295 | |
| ODDS: | +839 | ||
| BET: | 6u | ||
| RETURN: | 56.36u |
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
| + Volkan Oezdmir | $7600 | |
| + Da-Un Jung | $7900 | |
| + Omar Morales | $8800 | |
| + Said Nurmagomedov | $7800 | |
| + Ciryl Gane | $9600 | |
| + Heili Alateng | $8000 | |
Spares
| + | |
| + | |
| + | |
| + |
Betting Breakdowns
Frankie Edgar +159 vs Chan Sung Jung -169
The line is hardly moving which is a lot to do with Edgar’s name. It is hard to underestimate Frankie, especially in non-title fights. I like KZ as the bigger fighter at home to make it tough for Frankie to get in range. Unless KZ completely gasses, he should be able to do enough consistent work over the duration of the fight to earn the nod or possibly finish Edgar. I like KZ as Gold play. If he is going to make another run this is his spot to do it.
Frankie has been a tough out and KZ is expensive. Pass.
Volkan Oezdemir +135 vs Aleksandar Rakic -142
Volk is a solid pick here. He is the more battle-tested fighter and he is trending in the right direction. Fighting DC, Smith, and Reyes provided him with solid experience. It showed against Latifi. Rakic looked good against Ledet who is winless at LHW, Clark who is a big MW, and Manuwa who was at the end. Oezdemir continues to make strides here against a Rakic who is good, but is facing his toughest opponent yet. Silver play for Oezdemir.
Rakic is hittable and Oezdemir can finish. He is very affordable and frees up some cash for us to spend elsewhere. Add him.
Dooho Choi -295 vs Charles Jourdain +280
Choi is back off a long layoff which is preventing a top play here. He is looking to rebound from 2 losses against much better opposition than he is facing here. Jourdain is an ideal opponent for him to ease back into competition. He is also fight at home which is huge. Silver play for Choi as an addon bet. Not the worst play to leave off your card if you want to minimize your overall fight involvement.
I think Choi could return to his finishing ways, but he is going to cost you and hurt your other options. Pass/
Da Un Jung +105 vs Mike Rodriguez -115
The line swing on this fight is crazy. Jung opened around -400 and is now the slight underdog. Rodriguez looks like a monster, but so far he is a 1 and done type monster that is in serious trouble outside of R1. If he cleans that up, different story. Jung capitalized on a fighter when he gassed out. He does the same here against a guy that will struggle with the road trip. I nearly pulled the Gold paly for Jung, but we will go strong Silver.
Jung is a tad under $8000 and showed he knows how to finish. That potential should be there again against a fighter that tires and has issues on the mat. Add him.
Marc-Andre Barriault -121 vs Jun Yong Park +115
Barriault is scrappy, but he hasn’t done enough to win either fight. Park will oblige him in a fight that he enjoys. It should be a close fight and with Park fighting at home, I like that advantage. Tough luck for the Canadain. JYP beats MAB and I have him in my Silver plays.
Barriault is a tough out. I will pass here.
Kyung Ho Kang -250 vs Liu Pingyuan +230
I like Kang. This should be a solid scrap. Pingyuan will rebound here from his last fight, but I don’t think he will do enough. That being said, the line isn’t worth the risk. We are looking at Bronze or nothing here.
Kang could score a finish and Liu was stopped last time out. He is still expensive. Pass.
Tanner Boser +540 vs Ciryl Gane -550
This is clearly a No Play. I will look into a prop option further down the page.
Gane has proven impressive and with the savings, we have made, we can spend big on him as a key part of our lineup.
Suman Mokhtarian +255 vs Seungwoo Choi -275
Mokhtarian should not be in the UFC. He along with his brother and a couple of other underserved fighters got the call after facing a pile of inexperienced, several 0-1, opponents. He goes up against a more capable fighter who has skilled and while he is also winless in the promotion, Choi is the far better option. I feel like the line should be a lot higher- closer to -350. Gold play to compliment our other options.
I wanted to toss Choi into the game as she should finish his foe, but he is expensive and Gane is the better high priced option.
Dong Hyun Ma +177 vs Omar Morales -185
Morales is debuting against a fun, but flawed opponent. Ma is at home which is huge and he has skills that could guide him to a win, but he normally forgoes those. Morales is creeping up from the original open around -150, but I think he is still worth the inclusion in the Bronze section.
Morales is a finisher and Ma has been stopped in all of his UFC losses. That is enough for me. Add him
Alexandre Pantoja -220 vs Matt Schnell +205
Schnell has fought very well of late and we have cashed in. I see that ending now against a tough opponent that appears to be better than him everywhere. Pantoja will avoid Schnell’s subs, hold top position, and win the majority of the striking exchanges. I like Pantoja in my Gold plays.
Pantoja is in line for a finish, but I went with the bigger hitter in Gane as my high-end option.
Raoni Barcelos +100 vs Said Nurmagomedov -110
This should be a good scrap. Nurmagomdov opened around -160/-150 and has steadily increased in volume to the point that this fight is a near pick’em. Look for his longer striking attack to be the key here as Raoni fails to close the gap frequently enough to win this fight. Gold play for Said.
Said is a Fantasy dog. He is coming off a finish against another top opponent and could do the same here, especially if he finds the body. Add him.
Miranda Granger -181 vs Amanda Lemos +165
Granger opened around -350. That is enough by itself to make her the play. Adding to it- Lemos has been out long term. She was suspended for PED use. She is coming down in weight. She has a history of short fights. She gassed badly in her last fight. And finally, she is traveling which complicates everything further. Granger needs to be active, but mindful early, and then take over once Lemos starts to slow. Bronze play.
We could see a finish here, but in WMMA it is far less common and the price is pretty high for that level of uncertainty.
Heili Alateng +103 vs Ryan Benoit -110
I’m not a fan of Benoit. He has some tools, but has done nothing to improve since he came to the UFC. His cardio is garbage, he has been out for 2+ years, and he is on the road. He is also moving up to BW. Alateng can put on a decent pace and should test his cardio. He is still unproven himself. We are getting some value here. Bronze play.
I have Alateng in my lineup. He is affordable and Benoit can be finished, especially if he gasses out. Add him.
Confidence List
1. Ciryl Gane -550
2. Alexandre Pantoja -220
3. Seungwoo Choi -275
4. Dooho Choi -295
5. Kyung Ho Kang -250
====================
6. Said Nurmagomedov -110
7. Miranda Granger -181
8. Chan Sung Jung -169
9. Da Un Jung +105
10. Volkan Oezdemir +135
11. Jun Yong Park +115
12. Omar Morales -185
13. Heili Alateng +103
Value Bet List
1. Da Un Jung +105
2. Volkan Oezdemir +135
3. Jun Yong Park +115
4. Heili Alateng +103
5. Said Nurmagomedov -110
Counter Bets
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Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
C. Daniel Cormier
#1 Jon Jones
EPU Candidate(s)
1. Miranda Granger/Amanda Lemos
I could see Lemos get finished is she tires. She could get the finish early if she comes out throwing heat. Or we go the distance as both girls slow a little. Let’s stick with just a winner.
2. Heili Alateng/Ryan Benoit
Similar here. I like Alateng anyway I can get him. Let’s not complicate things here.
| EPU | ||||
| 47 | 24 | 23 | 51% | |
| 55 | 31 | 24 | 56% | |
| 47 | 20 | 27 | 43% | |
| 42 | 25 | 17 | 60% | |
| 32 | 13 | 19 | 41% | |
| 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | |
FPO Candidate
1. Ciryl Gane to Win Inside the Distance -135
He has showcased his submission skills inside the Octagon and we already know he has a sound striking game. Let’s keep them both in play. The FPO has seen multiple finishes in this slot. I think it keeps going here.
| Final Prelim | ||||
| 46 | ||||
| 36 | 16 | 20 | 44% | |
| 39 | 26 | 13 | 67% | |
| 34 | 25 | 9 | 74% | |
| 33 | 22 | 11 | 67% | |
| 38 | 23 | 15 | 61% | |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 35 | 17 | 18 | 49% | |
| 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% | |
| 31 | 13 | 18 | 42% | |
| 30 | 9 | 21 | 30% | |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% |
HEF Candidate(s)
1. Volkan Oezdemir +135 vs Aleksandar Rakic -142
2. Da Un Jung +105 vs Mike Rodriguez -115
3. Marc-Andre Barriault -121 vs Jun Yong Park +115
4. Raoni Barcelos +100 vs Said Nurmagomedov -110
5. Heili Alateng +103 vs Ryan Benoit -110
| HEFs | ||||
| 177 | 93 | 84 | 53% | |
| 212 | 106 | 106 | 50% | |
| 179 | 110 | 69 | 61% | |
| 192 | 100 | 92 | 52% | |
| 217 | 100 | 117 | 46% | |
| 40 | 19 | 21 | 48% | |
| 181 | 97 | 84 | 54% | |
| 212 | 108 | 104 | 51% | |
| 179 | 87 | 92 | 49% | |
| 192 | 95 | 97 | 49% | |
| 211 | 110 | 101 | 52% | |
| 40 | 19 | 21 | 48% |
Prop Bets
Dooho Choi to Win by TKO/KO +140
Choi has significant power and is taking a step back in competition from his previous opponents. The layoff will help him to mature and fighting at home is huge. I didn’t expect to get a plus number here. Bet Accordingly.
Tanner Boser/Ciryl Gane
See the Betting Scenario Section
Seungwoo Choi to Win by TKO/KO +170
Choi’s opponent is no UFC level and got finished pretty quickly last time out. Similar to the other Choi on our card, fighting at home will motivate Seungwoo to put on a good performance against an overmatched foe.
Omar Morales to Win by TKO/KO +125
Morales hits hard and Ma is hittable. In fact, Ma seems to welcome it. He has been finished in all 4 of his UFC defeats. I have him as (maybe the only) unsuccessful home fighter on the card. Leg kicks and punching power gets it done for the new guy.
Miranda Granger/Amanda LemosSee the Betting Scenario Section
Heili Alateng/Ryan BenoitSee the Betting Scenario Section
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.