UFC Fight 170: Lee vs Oliveira | Premium Bet Pack Review

UFC Fight 170: Lee vs Oliveira | Premium Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Jussier Formiga  to Win -145
+ Enrique Barzola  to Win -182
ODDS: +162
BET: 8u
RETURN: 20.94u

 

BET #2
+ Kevin Lee  to Win -135
ODDS: -135
BET: 7u
RETURN: 12.19u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Demian Maia  to Win +170
ODDS: +170
BET: 5u
RETURN: 13.5u

 

BET #2
+ Nikita Krylov  to Win +135
ODDS: +135
BET: 5u
RETURN: 11.75u

 

BET #3
+ Francisco Trinaldo  to Win -150
+ Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos  to Win -125
ODDS: +200
BET: 6u
RETURN: 18u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Bea Malecki  to Win +150
ODDS: +150
BET: 4u
RETURN: 10u

 

BET #2
+ Mayra Bueno Silva  to Win -135
+ David Dvorak  to Win +105
ODDS: +257
BET: 4u
RETURN: 14.27u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Demian Maia  to Win by Decision +300
ODDS: +300
BET: 4u
RETURN: 16u

 

BET #2
+ Nikita Krylov
to Win inside the Distance +160
+ Jussier Formiga  to Win by Decision +150
ODDS: +550
BET: 4u
RETURN: 26u

BET #3
+ Kevin Lee
to Win -135
+ Demian Maia to Win +170
+ Jussier Formiga  to Win -145
ODDS: +694
BET: 4u
RETURN: 31.77u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Jussier Formiga  to Win -145
+ Enrique Barzola  to Win -182
+ Kevin Lee  to Win -135
ODDS: +356
BET: 10u
RETURN: 45.57u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Francisco Trinaldo  to Win -150
+ Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos  to Win -125
+ Demian Maia  to Win +170
ODDS: +710
BET: 6u
RETURN: 48.6u

 

BET #2
+ Francisco Trinaldo  to Win -150
+ Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos  to Win -125
+ Nikita Krylov  to Win +135
ODDS: +605
BET: 6u
RETURN: 42.3u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Mayra Bueno Silva  to Win -135
+ David Dvorak  to Win +105
+ Bea Malecki  to Win +150
ODDS: +792
BET: 5u
RETURN: 44.61u

 

BET #2
+ Nikita Krylov  to Win +135
+ Demian Maia  to Win +170
+ Kevin Lee  to Win -135
ODDS: +1005
BET: 5u
RETURN: 55.23u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Demian Maia  to Win by Decision +300
+ Jussier Formiga  to Win by Decision +150
+ David Dvorak   to Win Inside the Distance +200
ODDS: +2900
BET: 4u
RETURN: 120u

BET #2
+ Nikita Krylov  to Win inside the Distance +160
+ Francisco Trinaldo  to Win -150
+ Enrique Barzola  to Win -182
ODDS: +571
BET: 5u
RETURN: 33.57u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Kevin Lee $8300
+ Demian Maia $7300
+ Nikita Krylov $7600
+ Amanda Ribas $9300
+ Mayra Bueno Silva $8500
+ Elizeu Zaleski do Santos $8400

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Kevin Lee -135  vs Charles Oliveira +130

  • With Kevin Lee once again missing weight, it adds another layer to this bout as we are aware that those that miss weight have a higher winning percentage.
  • We were already taking the size of Lee into consideration- this adds to it further.
  • There has been a bit of a flip in the line with Lee opening as a slight dog. I am still cool with the move as I capped him between -150 and -175.
  • The lack of the pro-Brazilian atmosphere will be a theme throughout the breakdown- I felt Lee would have been able to overcome it nonetheless.
  • Lee out muscles his foe for the duration.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • There are lots of affordable options on DK for this event.
  • I have Lee in my lineup. He has been a proven finisher and is taking on an opponent who can be finished.
  • He has put up triple digits on multiple occasions and is affordable.
  • Add him.

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Gilbert Burns -175 vs Demian Maia +170

  • This is a BJJ fan’s dream!
  • Maia has really never been out grappled by anyone with the exception of Jake Shields.
  • Burns has voiced his willingness to engage Demian on the mat- Yes please.
  • This was a near pick’em fight at the open so we are getting some considerable value here.
  • Maia takes Burns down and wins 2 rounds from top position.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Demian Maia to Win by Decision +300
  • I was considering taking a pass here, but the line was too tempting.
  • While there is concern that Maia gets the tap, Burns is very talented and capable of surviving on the mat.
  • Maia takes it on the cards.

DK Lineup:

  • There is always the potential of a submission finish when Maia is involved.
  • Even if that isn’t the case (see above)- takedowns and top control will produce points.
  • Add him.

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Damir Hadzovic +305 vs Renato Moicano -333

  • This is a complete pass.
  • Too many unknown factors here and the odds aren’t worth the risk.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Nikita Krylov +135 vs Johnny Walker -137

  • This should be a whole bunch of fun!
  • Walker is still riding a high after his 3 crazy finishes to start his UFC run- his loss to Anderson has not impacted his status just yet.
  • Krylov had one of his most complete fights, but lost to Glover- people who only look at the ‘L’ won’t be aware of the improvements that he has made.
  • If Walker can’t get him out of there in short order, look for Nikita to take the fight over with power, pace, and grappling.
  • Silver play.

Prop Bet:

  • Nikita Krylov to Win inside the Distance +160
  • Krylov is a proven finisher and has gone the distance just once in his 32-fight career.
  • Walker’s gas tank isn’t great and his cardio is pretty questionable.
  • Krylov returns to his finishing ways for plus money.

DK Lineup:

  • With Krylov as the underdog and a proven finisher, he is a steal.
  • Add him.

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John Makdessi +153 vs Francisco Trinaldo -150

  • I was a little surprised that this line was so close, especially considering they were fighting Brazil.
  • Of all the fighters on the card, Makdessi could benefit from having no crowds. With the impact of Trinaldo’s offense not aided by crowd reaction, strike for strike Makdessi’s offense will benefit.
  • I still like the local in a close fight, especially if he can bring his physicality into the equation.
  • He was near -200 at the open which adds to his attractiveness as a bet.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • I expect a decision and not a super high volume output.
  • Not little of a return for $8900.
  • Pass.

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Jussier Formiga -145 vs Brandon Moreno +137

  • This is a huge fight for both men. Moreno had a big fight at home against Sergio Pettis and came up short and Formiga has struggled in multiple contender fights.
  • If Moreno can force Formiga to stay vertical, he can win this fight, but only the best of the division have been able to do that.
  • The line has come down on Formiga and is a little more playable then before.
  • He is 4-2 fighting at home with both of his losses coming against Benavidez.
  • I think he shows up here.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Randa Markos +295 vs Amanda Ribas -325

  • Ribas has looked good, but her win over Dern has blown these odds up a little.
  • Markos could arguably be a tougher challenge,
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Ribas has shown she can be pretty lethal on the mat and Markos is good enough to get herself into some trouble.
  • Look for Ribas to land decent volume on the feet and take her down when she wants.
  • A finish a solid cap to Ribas’s point potential.

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Aleksei Kunchenko +115 vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -125

  • Kunchenko has never really impressed me in the UFC. A narrow win over Alves and a faded Okami just aren’t doing it for me.
  • His first engagement with a prime fighter in Burns and didn’t go well.
  • dos Santos has put together some solid victories and his stock is at a low point because of a bad performance in China. We need to cash in.
  • He should be the more active striker and may opt to mix in some takedowns similar to the Millender win.
  • He was closer to -175 at the open so we are getting a good return here.
  • Take the local to have the edge on the cards or get a stoppage.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • dos Santos has proven he can finish and he is an affordable option here.
  • Kunchenko is getting up there in age and trying to recover from your first career loss at this stage in your career can be tough.
  • A finish is a real possibility.
  • Add him.

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Enrique Barzola -182 vs Rani Yahya +170

  • I have made a killing backing Yahya over his career as a dog.
  • A quick search of my list of dogs and Rani shows up 4-times- I have a strong feeling who he beats and who he does not.
  • Barzola is coming down in weight and if that goes well- it is huge.
  • His wrestling will help him to avoid Rani on the mat and his improved striking will carry the day.
  • Barzola makes Yahya fight his fight.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Maryna Moroz +125 vs Mayra Bueno Silva -135

  • I just can trust Moroz in any situation. She routinely underperforms, but her last fight is probably helping us get a better line on Bueno Silva.
  • Bueno Silva is better in most areas and with home-field advantage, Moroz really needs to go above and beyond to get the nod on the cards.
  • Bronze Play for Bueno Silva.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Bueno Silva is a pretty solid finisher and if she can drag Moroz to the mat, the submission opportunity should be there,
  • Add her.

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David Dvorak +105 vs Bruno Silva -115

  • Dvorak is a slight dog on some books, but he is moving away from that.
  • I like to fade fighters who debut at higher weight classes, lose, and then drop back down in their next fight.
  • I feel like the line gets skewed by their “no risk” debut scenario- there is more pressure here in Silva.
  • I like Dvorak despite the debut/late notice/ road game in Brazil.
  • He does more on the feet and avoids the ground.
  • Bronze play for the Czech.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Veronica Macedo -155 vs Bea Malecki +150

  • Macedo has lost almost all of the exchanges in the cage and if she hadn’t caught Viana off her back she would be 0-4.
  • Malecki is a capable striker with flashes of skill on the mat and she is huge!
  • Veronica has not proven she can be a favourite at this level- fade.
  • Bronze play for Malecki.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Confidence List

1. Amanda Ribas -325

2. Enrique Barzola -182

3. Jussier Formiga -145

4. Renato Moicano -333

5. Kevin Lee -135

====================

6. Francisco Trinaldo -150

7. Demian Maia +170

8. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -125

9. Mayra Bueno Silva -135

10. Nikita Krylov +135

11. Bea Malecki +150

12. David Dvorak +105

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Demian Maia +170

2. Bea Malecki +150 

3. Nikita Krylov +135

4. Kevin Lee -135

5. Jussier Formiga -145

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. David Dvorak to Win Inside the Distance +200

Dvorak has great finishing numbers and I think he will look to make the most out of his opportunity here. Silva didn’t impress as much as he did others in his debut, he is finishable.

2. Veronica Macedo/Bea Malecki Total Rounds Under 2.5 +115

I think there is a play here and while I considered Bea inside the distance against a fighter that has been finished in 2 of 3, let’s keep both girls’ strengths and weaknesses in play. It will be a weird start in an empty building but keep in mind the early prelims are usually a little quieter- these girls will get after it.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
2381535%

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FPO Candidate

1. Jussier Formiga to Win by Decision +150

Moreno is a pretty tough out, but if Formiga gets to his back he has a legit chance of finishing him. All that being considered, I still like there skills to matchup nicely with Formiga taking it on the cards.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
1911858%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
104640%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Kevin Lee -135  vs Charles Oliveira +130

2. Nikita Krylov +135 vs Johnny Walker -137

3. John Makdessi +153 vs Francisco Trinaldo -150

4. Jussier Formiga -145 vs Brandon Moreno +137

5. Aleksei Kunchenko +115 vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -125

6. Maryna Moroz +125 vs Mayra Bueno Silva -135

7. David Dvorak +105 vs Bruno Silva -115

8. Veronica Macedo -155 vs Bea Malecki +150

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
102525051%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
102465645%

 

 

 

 

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