When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Jussier Formiga
to Win
-145
+ Enrique Barzola
to Win
-182
ODDS:
+162
BET:
8u
RETURN:
20.94u
BET #2
+ Kevin Lee
to Win
-135
ODDS:
-135
BET:
7u
RETURN:
12.19u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Demian Maia
to Win
+170
ODDS:
+170
BET:
5u
RETURN:
13.5u
BET #2
+ Nikita Krylov
to Win
+135
ODDS:
+135
BET:
5u
RETURN:
11.75u
BET #3
+ Francisco Trinaldo
to Win
-150
+ Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
to Win
-125
ODDS:
+200
BET:
6u
RETURN:
18u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Bea Malecki
to Win
+150
ODDS:
+150
BET:
4u
RETURN:
10u
BET #2
+ Mayra Bueno Silva
to Win
-135
+ David Dvorak
to Win
+105
ODDS:
+257
BET:
4u
RETURN:
14.27u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Demian Maia
to Win by Decision
+300
ODDS:
+300
BET:
4u
RETURN:
16u
BET #2
+ Nikita Krylov
to Win inside the Distance
+160
+ Jussier Formiga
to Win by Decision
+150
ODDS:
+550
BET:
4u
RETURN:
26u
BET #3
+ Kevin Lee
to Win
-135
+ Demian Maia
to Win
+170
+ Jussier Formiga
to Win
-145
ODDS:
+694
BET:
4u
RETURN:
31.77u
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Jussier Formiga
to Win
-145
+ Enrique Barzola
to Win
-182
+ Kevin Lee
to Win
-135
ODDS:
+356
BET:
10u
RETURN:
45.57u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Francisco Trinaldo
to Win
-150
+ Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
to Win
-125
+ Demian Maia
to Win
+170
ODDS:
+710
BET:
6u
RETURN:
48.6u
BET #2
+ Francisco Trinaldo
to Win
-150
+ Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
to Win
-125
+ Nikita Krylov
to Win
+135
ODDS:
+605
BET:
6u
RETURN:
42.3u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Mayra Bueno Silva
to Win
-135
+ David Dvorak
to Win
+105
+ Bea Malecki
to Win
+150
ODDS:
+792
BET:
5u
RETURN:
44.61u
BET #2
+ Nikita Krylov
to Win
+135
+ Demian Maia
to Win
+170
+ Kevin Lee
to Win
-135
ODDS:
+1005
BET:
5u
RETURN:
55.23u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Demian Maia
to Win by Decision
+300
+ Jussier Formiga
to Win by Decision
+150
+ David Dvorak
to Win Inside the Distance
+200
ODDS:
+2900
BET:
4u
RETURN:
120u
BET #2
+ Nikita Krylov
to Win inside the Distance
+160
+ Francisco Trinaldo
to Win
-150
+ Enrique Barzola
to Win
-182
ODDS:
+571
BET:
5u
RETURN:
33.57u
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
+ Kevin Lee
$8300
+ Demian Maia
$7300
+ Nikita Krylov
$7600
+ Amanda Ribas
$9300
+ Mayra Bueno Silva
$8500
+ Elizeu Zaleski do Santos
$8400
Spares
+
+
+
+
Betting Breakdowns
Kevin Lee -135 vs Charles Oliveira +130
With Kevin Lee once again missing weight, it adds another layer to this bout as we are aware that those that miss weight have a higher winning percentage.
We were already taking the size of Lee into consideration- this adds to it further.
There has been a bit of a flip in the line with Lee opening as a slight dog. I am still cool with the move as I capped him between -150 and -175.
The lack of the pro-Brazilian atmosphere will be a theme throughout the breakdown- I felt Lee would have been able to overcome it nonetheless.
Lee out muscles his foe for the duration.
Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
There are lots of affordable options on DK for this event.
I have Lee in my lineup. He has been a proven finisher and is taking on an opponent who can be finished.
He has put up triple digits on multiple occasions and is affordable.
Add him.
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Gilbert Burns -175 vs Demian Maia +170
This is a BJJ fan’s dream!
Maia has really never been out grappled by anyone with the exception of Jake Shields.
Burns has voiced his willingness to engage Demian on the mat- Yes please.
This was a near pick’em fight at the open so we are getting some considerable value here.
Maia takes Burns down and wins 2 rounds from top position.
Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
Demian Maia to Win by Decision +300
I was considering taking a pass here, but the line was too tempting.
While there is concern that Maia gets the tap, Burns is very talented and capable of surviving on the mat.
Maia takes it on the cards.
DK Lineup:
There is always the potential of a submission finish when Maia is involved.
Even if that isn’t the case (see above)- takedowns and top control will produce points.
Add him.
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Damir Hadzovic +305 vs Renato Moicano -333
This is a complete pass.
Too many unknown factors here and the odds aren’t worth the risk.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Nikita Krylov +135 vs Johnny Walker -137
This should be a whole bunch of fun!
Walker is still riding a high after his 3 crazy finishes to start his UFC run- his loss to Anderson has not impacted his status just yet.
Krylov had one of his most complete fights, but lost to Glover- people who only look at the ‘L’ won’t be aware of the improvements that he has made.
If Walker can’t get him out of there in short order, look for Nikita to take the fight over with power, pace, and grappling.
Silver play.
Prop Bet:
Nikita Krylov to Win inside the Distance +160
Krylov is a proven finisher and has gone the distance just once in his 32-fight career.
Walker’s gas tank isn’t great and his cardio is pretty questionable.
Krylov returns to his finishing ways for plus money.
DK Lineup:
With Krylov as the underdog and a proven finisher, he is a steal.
Add him.
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John Makdessi +153 vs Francisco Trinaldo -150
I was a little surprised that this line was so close, especially considering they were fighting Brazil.
Of all the fighters on the card, Makdessi could benefit from having no crowds. With the impact of Trinaldo’s offense not aided by crowd reaction, strike for strike Makdessi’s offense will benefit.
I still like the local in a close fight, especially if he can bring his physicality into the equation.
He was near -200 at the open which adds to his attractiveness as a bet.
Silver Play.
Prop Bet
No Play.
DK Lineup:
I expect a decision and not a super high volume output.
Not little of a return for $8900.
Pass.
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Jussier Formiga -145 vs Brandon Moreno +137
This is a huge fight for both men. Moreno had a big fight at home against Sergio Pettis and came up short and Formiga has struggled in multiple contender fights.
If Moreno can force Formiga to stay vertical, he can win this fight, but only the best of the division have been able to do that.
The line has come down on Formiga and is a little more playable then before.
He is 4-2 fighting at home with both of his losses coming against Benavidez.
I think he shows up here.
Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Randa Markos +295 vs Amanda Ribas -325
Ribas has looked good, but her win over Dern has blown these odds up a little.
Markos could arguably be a tougher challenge,
No Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Ribas has shown she can be pretty lethal on the mat and Markos is good enough to get herself into some trouble.
Look for Ribas to land decent volume on the feet and take her down when she wants.
A finish a solid cap to Ribas’s point potential.
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Aleksei Kunchenko +115 vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -125
Kunchenko has never really impressed me in the UFC. A narrow win over Alves and a faded Okami just aren’t doing it for me.
His first engagement with a prime fighter in Burns and didn’t go well.
dos Santos has put together some solid victories and his stock is at a low point because of a bad performance in China. We need to cash in.
He should be the more active striker and may opt to mix in some takedowns similar to the Millender win.
He was closer to -175 at the open so we are getting a good return here.
Take the local to have the edge on the cards or get a stoppage.
Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
dos Santos has proven he can finish and he is an affordable option here.
Kunchenko is getting up there in age and trying to recover from your first career loss at this stage in your career can be tough.
A finish is a real possibility.
Add him.
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Enrique Barzola -182 vs Rani Yahya +170
I have made a killing backing Yahya over his career as a dog.
A quick search of my list of dogs and Rani shows up 4-times- I have a strong feeling who he beats and who he does not.
Barzola is coming down in weight and if that goes well- it is huge.
His wrestling will help him to avoid Rani on the mat and his improved striking will carry the day.
Barzola makes Yahya fight his fight.
Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Maryna Moroz +125 vs Mayra Bueno Silva -135
I just can trust Moroz in any situation. She routinely underperforms, but her last fight is probably helping us get a better line on Bueno Silva.
Bueno Silva is better in most areas and with home-field advantage, Moroz really needs to go above and beyond to get the nod on the cards.
Bronze Play for Bueno Silva.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Bueno Silva is a pretty solid finisher and if she can drag Moroz to the mat, the submission opportunity should be there,
Add her.
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David Dvorak +105 vs Bruno Silva -115
Dvorak is a slight dog on some books, but he is moving away from that.
I like to fade fighters who debut at higher weight classes, lose, and then drop back down in their next fight.
I feel like the line gets skewed by their “no risk” debut scenario- there is more pressure here in Silva.
I like Dvorak despite the debut/late notice/ road game in Brazil.
He does more on the feet and avoids the ground.
Bronze play for the Czech.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Veronica Macedo -155 vs Bea Malecki +150
Macedo has lost almost all of the exchanges in the cage and if she hadn’t caught Viana off her back she would be 0-4.
Malecki is a capable striker with flashes of skill on the mat and she is huge!
Veronica has not proven she can be a favourite at this level- fade.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
Dvorak has great finishing numbers and I think he will look to make the most out of his opportunity here. Silva didn’t impress as much as he did others in his debut, he is finishable.
2. Veronica Macedo/Bea Malecki Total Rounds Under 2.5 +115
I think there is a play here and while I considered Bea inside the distance against a fighter that has been finished in 2 of 3, let’s keep both girls’ strengths and weaknesses in play. It will be a weird start in an empty building but keep in mind the early prelims are usually a little quieter- these girls will get after it.
EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47
24
23
51%
2016 Picks
55
31
24
56%
2017 Picks
47
20
27
43%
2018 Picks
42
25
17
60%
2019 Picks
32
13
19
41%
2020 Picks
23
8
15
35%
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FPO Candidate
1. Jussier Formiga to Win by Decision +150
Moreno is a pretty tough out, but if Formiga gets to his back he has a legit chance of finishing him. All that being considered, I still like there skills to matchup nicely with Formiga taking it on the cards.
Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36
16
20
44%
2016
39
26
13
67%
2017
34
25
9
74%
2018
33
22
11
67%
2019
38
23
15
61%
2020
19
11
8
58%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29
12
17
41%
2016 Picks
35
17
18
49%
2017 Picks
29
12
17
41%
2018 Picks
31
13
18
42%
2019 Picks
30
9
21
30%
2020 Picks
10
4
6
40%
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HEF Candidate(s)
1. Kevin Lee -135 vs Charles Oliveira +130
2. Nikita Krylov +135 vs Johnny Walker -137
3. John Makdessi +153 vs Francisco Trinaldo -150
4. Jussier Formiga -145 vs Brandon Moreno +137
5. Aleksei Kunchenko +115 vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -125
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.