When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik
to Win
-138
+ Livinha Souza
to Win
-163
ODDS:
+178
BET:
8u
RETURN:
22.26u
BET #2
+ Stipe Miocic
to Win
-110
ODDS:
-110
BET:
8u
RETURN:
15.27
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Marlon Vera
to Win
+225
ODDS:
+225
BET:
6u
RETURN:
19.5u
BET #2
+ Merab Dvalishvili
to Win
-250
+ Vinc Pichel
to Win
-138
ODDS:
+141
BET:
7u
RETURN:
16.9u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Herbert Burns
to Win
-275
+ Chris Daukaus
to Win
+100
ODDS:
+173
BET:
6u
RETURN:
16.36u
BET #2
+ Danny Chavez
to Win
+130
+ Kai Kamaka
to Win
-210
ODDS:
+240
BET:
5u
RETURN:
16.98u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Marlon Vera
to Win Inside the Distance
+510
ODDS:
+510
BET:
4u
RETURN:
24.4u
BET #2
+ Merab Dvalishvili
to Win by Decision
-150
+ Herbert Burns
to Win by Submission
-120
ODDS:
+206
BET:
4u
RETURN:
12.22u
BET #3
+ Vinc Pichel
to Win by Decision
+190
+ Kai Kamaka
to Win by Decision
+125
ODDS:
+553
BET:
4u
RETURN:
26.1u
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik
to Win
-138
+ Livinha Souza
to Win
-163
+ Stipe Miocic
to Win
-110
ODDS:
+431
BET:
10u
RETURN:
53.12
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Merab Dvalishvili
to Win
-250
+ Vinc Pichel
to Win
-138
+ Marlon Vera
to Win
+225
ODDS:
+685
BET:
8u
RETURN:
62.78u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Herbert Burns
to Win
-275
+ Danny Chavez
to Win
+130
+ Kai Kamaka
to Win
-210
+ Chris Daukaus
to Win
+100
ODDS:
+826
BET:
6u
RETURN:
55.56u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Marlon Vera
to Win Inside the Distance
+510
+ Stipe Miocic
to Win
-110
ODDS:
+1065
BET:
5u
RETURN:
58.23u
BET #2
+ Merab Dvalishvili
to Win by Decision
-150
+ Herbert Burns
to Win by Submission
-120
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik
to Win
-138
ODDS:
+427
BET:
5u
RETURN:
26.35u
BET #3
+ Vinc Pichel
to Win by Decision
+190
+ Kai Kamaka
to Win by Decision
+125
+ Livinha Souza
to Win
-163
ODDS:
+953
BET:
5u
RETURN:
52.64u
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
+ Stipe Miocic
$8200
+ Marlon Vera
$7000
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik
$8400
+ Herbert Burns
$8900
+ Merab Dvalishvili
$8700
+ Livia Souza
$8600
Spares
+ Danny Chavez
$7400
+
+
+
Betting Breakdowns
Stipe Miocic -110 vs Daniel Cormier -110
The line has been pretty consistent across the board with minimal movement.
Almost every book as this fight at even with the exception of 2 that have DC as a slight favourite.
I would expect some late movement on DC now that he has weighed in below 240 pounds as he had stated he would.
The fans are favouring Stipe slightly at roughly 56% on just over 2100 votes on Tapology.
I feel like the 2nd fight was more indicative of how this 2 matchup- it is a close fight until we get into the later stages.
I feel like DC’s cardio has never been that great and his success beyond the 3rd round is questionable.
Stipe endures the early attack, even if it is wrestling centric, and takes over once DC starts to slow.
Gold play on the Champ.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
We are getting 5 rounds here which helps us with Stipe’s volume- he scored 107 over 5 versus Ngannou.
Stipe has also put up 100+ points in 7 of his last 8 fights.
At $8200, he is worth the play.
icon-circleicon-circle
Sean O’Malley -275 vs Marlon Vera +225
There is a lot of hype surrounding O’Malley which is understandable.
His recent wins are solid and Wineland is talented, but he had a clear vulnerability that O’Malley capitalized on.
Vera is easily the most well-rounded fighter he has faced and is far more battle-test, yet durable as well.
The line is moving in our favour with something closer to +180 when it opened.
O’Malley’s had limited recent experience in longer fights and Vera only gets better as bouts advance.
Vera beats him up in close and takes over as the fights advances.
Silver Play on Chito.
Prop Bet:
Marlon Vera to Win Inside the Distance +510
All 8 of Vera’s UFC wins have come by finish and he is dangerous everywhere.
If O’Malley falters outside of the first round, Vera will be all over him.
Too good of a return to overlook this play.
DK Lineup:
As mentioned above, Vera is a finisher and has proven that throughout his career.
He is also extremely affordable at $7000 which allows us to do almost anything with the rest of our bankroll.
Add him.
icon-circleicon-circle
Junior Dos Santos +110 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik -138
I have seen some divided opinions on this fight which is understandable considering their recent performances.
67% on Tapology are backing JR which is understandable as JDA has taken a few steps back.
The line movement has brought us some value with JR moving from -146 to -125 on some books.
If JDS comes out using a grappling attack take a look at the Live Odds and see how they play out, consider a bet on him if you are getting anything under -185
JDS has struggled at times with lesser strikers and JR will capitalize on that.
HW Gold play for Jairzinho.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Rozenstruik has fight stopping power and JDS has been (T)KOed in each of his last 5 defeats.
I don’t like the way Junior reacts under fire when taking on equally as dangerous strikers.
$8400 is a solid price to pay for a proven finisher.
icon-circleicon-circle
John Dodson +200 vs Merab Dvalishvili -250
This is a big step up for Dvalishvili compared to who he has been facing.
A lot of people feel that if Dodson can stay vertical he can win, but I still think he needs a knockout.
Dvalishvili brings a lot of pressure and pretty solid volume and Dodson doesn’t deal with that nearly as well as he used to.
The line was much more tempting when it was sub -200, but it is still worth a look.
Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
Merab Dvalishvili to Win by Decision -150
Merab might be able to outwork Dodson, but I don’t see him finishing him.
Dodson has not been finished in 32 career bouts- including fights with Yan, Lineker, and Moraes.
Dvalishvili only has 3 finishes in 11 wins and none in the UFC.
DK Lineup:
Despite the expectation of a decision, Merab has put up some huge point totals and should be included.
He scored 174 and 131 in each of his last 2 bouts and while I don’t think he sets an all-time high, he should be good for triple digits with his takedown volume and Dodson’s ability to get up equating to a lot of points.
Add him.
icon-circleicon-circle
Herbert Burns -275 vs Daniel Pineda +225
Pineda’s high submission numbers seem to play directly into Burns’ strengths.
Burns also missed weight significantly which should help him to push Pineda around when looking to setup his grappling.
There is some concern that Burns may fade if the fight is drawn out.
Nonetheless, I want a Burns as my top Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
Herbert Burns to Win by Submission -120
Pineda has been submitted 6 times and has struggled with top-level grapplers.
He is no slouch on the mat either, but that is why he has issues as he is just good enough to get himself into trouble against better grapplers.
Add him.
DK Lineup:
With 101 and 109 points in his 2 UFC bouts, Burns is a solid addition.
The previously mentioned scenarios are enough to suggest another finish is coming and at sub $9000 he worth the play.
Add him.
icon-circleicon-circle
Jim Miller +110 vs Vinc Pichel -138
I went back and forth on this one and ultimately I decided on Pichel getting the better of the action over the last 2 rounds.
77% at Tapology are on Miller which is fine with me.
I like fading a popular dog.
Miller’s sub win over Roberts is viewed as superior to Pichel taking a decision, but not by me.
Pichel had a more complete effort, Miller won 1 key position to get the win.
Miller’s record is pretty poor beyond the first round- that shows up here.
Pichel is a Silver play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
icon-circleicon-circle
Felice Herrig +250 vs Virna Jandiroba -334
No Play here.
Jandiroba should be able to grind this fight out with takedowns and top control, but this price is not my idea of playable.
Pass.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
icon-circleicon-circle
TJ Brown -160 vs Danny Chavez +130
We have lost a little value on Chavez from his +155 start, but he is still playable.
Brown missed weight, but not in a good way. He missed by .5 pounds, which means he attempted to make it.
He drained himself down to as far as he could go, but came up short. Burns didn’t cut the last 4-5 pounds which is usually the hardest part of the cut.
This will show up tomorrow for a fighter that gassed badly last time out.
Chavez is the better striker and should be able to piece the defensively weak Brown up.
Bronz play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Chavez should have a legit chance at a finish here once Brown slows.
He is affordable and will not be a highly played fighter.
Add him.
icon-circleicon-circle
Livinha Souza -163 vs Ashley Yoder +137
Yoder is scrappy, but she has struggled with similar opponents.
Souza is better on the mat and Yoder is more than willing to go there.
Yoder doesn’t have the pop to win this fight on the feet nor the ground skills to do enough on the floor to add to it.
Souza was -250 which makes this price a steal.
Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
I do have Souza in my lineup for a couple of reasons.
She is a submission threat and will land a number of takedowns to augment her score.
Yoder’s willingness to trade everywhere will allow Souza to score points.
Add her.
icon-circleicon-circle
Chris Daukaus +100 vs Parker Porter -125
Porter’s resume of wins has come largely against similarly sized HWs- 6’0″ tall or less and probably a natural LHW or MW.
Daukaus is not that- he is far from a super impressive HW, but he is bigger, longer, and should be able to outwork Porter on short notice.
Bronze play on Daukaus.
Prop Bet:
See Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
icon-circleicon-circle
Kai Kamaka -210 vs Tony Kelley +175
This fight was added extremely late.
Kamaka fought 2 weeks ago while Kelley has next to no cage time over the last couple of years.
Kamaka should be the busier fighter and edge this one out.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
Of his 8 wins, Daukaus has won by knockout 7 times. Parker has been finished 4-times, twice by knockout. Daukaus is the bigger man and should be able to impose his will here.
2. Kai Kamaka to Win by Decision +125
Of Kamaka’s 7 wins, 6 are by decision. Kelley has never been finished and has even gone a full 5 rounds with a current member of the UFC roster. Decent play based on the stats.
EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47
24
23
51%
2016 Picks
55
31
24
56%
2017 Picks
47
20
27
43%
2018 Picks
42
25
17
60%
2019 Picks
32
13
19
41%
2020 Picks
23
8
15
35%
icon-circleicon-circle
FPO Candidate
1. Vinc Pichel to Win by Decision +190
Pichel has been a decision machine and it usually takes an elite fighter to finish Jim. I expect Jim to start strong, but if he can’t hit that early sub, Pichel outworks him and takes it on the cards.
Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36
16
20
44%
2016
39
26
13
67%
2017
34
25
9
74%
2018
33
22
11
67%
2019
38
23
15
61%
2020
19
11
8
58%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29
12
17
41%
2016 Picks
35
17
18
49%
2017 Picks
29
12
17
41%
2018 Picks
31
13
18
42%
2019 Picks
30
9
21
30%
2020 Picks
10
4
6
40%
icon-circleicon-circle
HEF Candidate(s)
1. Stipe Miocic -110 vs Daniel Cormier -110
2. Junior Dos Santos +110 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik -138
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.