UFC 252: Miocic vs Cormier 3 | BET Pack Review- Huge Winner

UFC 252: Miocic vs Cormier 3 | BET Pack Review- Huge Winner

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik  to Win -138
+ Livinha Souza  to Win -163
ODDS: +178
BET: 8u
RETURN: 22.26u

 

BET #2
+ Stipe Miocic  to Win -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 8u
RETURN: 15.27

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Marlon Vera  to Win +225
ODDS: +225
BET: 6u
RETURN: 19.5u

 

BET #2
+ Merab Dvalishvili  to Win -250
+ Vinc Pichel  to Win -138
ODDS: +141
BET: 7u
RETURN: 16.9u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Herbert Burns  to Win -275
+ Chris Daukaus  to Win +100
ODDS: +173
BET: 6u
RETURN: 16.36u

 

BET #2
+ Danny Chavez  to Win +130
+ Kai Kamaka  to Win -210
ODDS: +240
BET: 5u
RETURN: 16.98u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Marlon Vera  to Win Inside the Distance  +510
ODDS: +510
BET: 4u
RETURN: 24.4u

 

BET #2
+ Merab Dvalishvili   to Win by Decision -150
+ Herbert Burns   to Win by Submission -120
ODDS: +206
BET: 4u
RETURN: 12.22u

BET #3
+ Vinc Pichel  to Win by Decision  +190
+ Kai Kamaka   to Win by Decision +125
ODDS: +553
BET: 4u
RETURN: 26.1u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik  to Win -138
+ Livinha Souza  to Win -163
+ Stipe Miocic  to Win -110
ODDS: +431
BET: 10u
RETURN: 53.12

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Merab Dvalishvili  to Win -250
+ Vinc Pichel  to Win -138
+ Marlon Vera  to Win +225
ODDS: +685
BET: 8u
RETURN: 62.78u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Herbert Burns  to Win -275
+ Danny Chavez  to Win +130
+ Kai Kamaka  to Win -210
+ Chris Daukaus  to Win +100
ODDS: +826
BET: 6u
RETURN: 55.56u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Marlon Vera  to Win Inside the Distance  +510
+ Stipe Miocic  to Win -110
ODDS: +1065
BET: 5u
RETURN: 58.23u

BET #2
+ Merab Dvalishvili   to Win by Decision -150
+ Herbert Burns   to Win by Submission -120
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik  to Win -138
ODDS: +427
BET: 5u
RETURN: 26.35u

BET #3
+ Vinc Pichel  to Win by Decision  +190
+ Kai Kamaka   to Win by Decision +125
+ Livinha Souza  to Win -163
ODDS: +953
BET: 5u
RETURN: 52.64u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Stipe Miocic $8200
+ Marlon Vera $7000
+ Jairzinho Rozenstruik $8400
+ Herbert Burns $8900
+ Merab Dvalishvili $8700
+ Livia Souza $8600

Spares

+ Danny Chavez $7400
+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Stipe Miocic -110 vs Daniel Cormier -110

  • The line has been pretty consistent across the board with minimal movement.
  • Almost every book as this fight at even with the exception of 2 that have DC as a slight favourite.
  • I would expect some late movement on DC now that he has weighed in below 240 pounds as he had stated he would.
  • The fans are favouring Stipe slightly at roughly 56% on just over 2100 votes on Tapology.
  • I feel like the 2nd fight was more indicative of how this 2 matchup- it is a close fight until we get into the later stages.
  • I feel like DC’s cardio has never been that great and his success beyond the 3rd round is questionable.
  • Stipe endures the early attack, even if it is wrestling centric, and takes over once DC starts to slow.
  • Gold play on the Champ.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • We are getting 5 rounds here which helps us with Stipe’s volume- he scored 107 over 5 versus Ngannou.
  • Stipe has also put up 100+ points in 7 of his last 8 fights.
  • At $8200, he is worth the play.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Sean O’Malley -275 vs Marlon Vera +225

  • There is a lot of hype surrounding O’Malley which is understandable.
  • His recent wins are solid and Wineland is talented, but he had a clear vulnerability that O’Malley capitalized on.
  • Vera is easily the most well-rounded fighter he has faced and is far more battle-test, yet durable as well.
  • The line is moving in our favour with something closer to +180 when it opened.
  • O’Malley’s had limited recent experience in longer fights and Vera only gets better as bouts advance.
  • Vera beats him up in close and takes over as the fights advances.
  • Silver Play on Chito.

Prop Bet:

  • Marlon Vera to Win Inside the Distance +510
  • All 8 of Vera’s UFC wins have come by finish and he is dangerous everywhere.
  • If O’Malley falters outside of the first round, Vera will be all over him.
  • Too good of a return to overlook this play.

DK Lineup:

  • As mentioned above, Vera is a finisher and has proven that throughout his career.
  • He is also extremely affordable at $7000 which allows us to do almost anything with the rest of our bankroll.
  • Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Junior Dos Santos +110 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik -138

  • I have seen some divided opinions on this fight which is understandable considering their recent performances.
  • 67% on Tapology are backing JR which is understandable as JDA has taken a few steps back.
  • The line movement has brought us some value with JR moving from -146 to -125 on some books.
  • If JDS comes out using a grappling attack take a look at the Live Odds and see how they play out, consider a bet on him if you are getting anything under -185
  • JDS has struggled at times with lesser strikers and JR will capitalize on that.
  • HW Gold play for Jairzinho.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Rozenstruik has fight stopping power and JDS has been (T)KOed in each of his last 5 defeats.
  • I don’t like the way Junior reacts under fire when taking on equally as dangerous strikers.
  • $8400 is a solid price to pay for a proven finisher.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

John Dodson +200 vs Merab Dvalishvili -250

  • This is a big step up for Dvalishvili compared to who he has been facing.
  • A lot of people feel that if Dodson can stay vertical he can win, but I still think he needs a knockout.
  • Dvalishvili brings a lot of pressure and pretty solid volume and Dodson doesn’t deal with that nearly as well as he used to.
  • The line was much more tempting when it was sub -200, but it is still worth a look.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Merab Dvalishvili to Win by Decision -150
  • Merab might be able to outwork Dodson, but I don’t see him finishing him.
  • Dodson has not been finished in 32 career bouts- including fights with Yan, Lineker, and Moraes.
  • Dvalishvili only has 3 finishes in 11 wins and none in the UFC.

DK Lineup:

  • Despite the expectation of a decision, Merab has put up some huge point totals and should be included.
  • He scored 174 and 131 in each of his last 2 bouts and while I don’t think he sets an all-time high, he should be good for triple digits with his takedown volume and Dodson’s ability to get up equating to a lot of points.
  • Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Herbert Burns -275 vs Daniel Pineda +225

  • Pineda’s high submission numbers seem to play directly into Burns’ strengths.
  • Burns also missed weight significantly which should help him to push Pineda around when looking to setup his grappling.
  • There is some concern that Burns may fade if the fight is drawn out.
  • Nonetheless, I want a Burns as my top Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • Herbert Burns to Win by Submission -120
  • Pineda has been submitted 6 times and has struggled with top-level grapplers.
  • He is no slouch on the mat either, but that is why he has issues as he is just good enough to get himself into trouble against better grapplers.
  • Add him.

DK Lineup:

  • With 101 and 109 points in his 2 UFC bouts, Burns is a solid addition.
  • The previously mentioned scenarios are enough to suggest another finish is coming and at sub $9000 he worth the play.
  • Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Jim Miller +110 vs Vinc Pichel -138

  • I went back and forth on this one and ultimately I decided on Pichel getting the better of the action over the last 2 rounds.
  • 77% at Tapology are on Miller which is fine with me.
  • I like fading a popular dog.
  • Miller’s sub win over Roberts is viewed as superior to Pichel taking a decision, but not by me.
  • Pichel had a more complete effort, Miller won 1 key position to get the win.
  • Miller’s record is pretty poor beyond the first round- that shows up here.
  • Pichel is a Silver play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Felice Herrig +250 vs Virna Jandiroba -334

  • No Play here.
  • Jandiroba should be able to grind this fight out with takedowns and top control, but this price is not my idea of playable.
  • Pass.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

TJ Brown -160 vs Danny Chavez +130

  • We have lost a little value on Chavez from his +155 start, but he is still playable.
  • Brown missed weight, but not in a good way. He missed by .5 pounds, which means he attempted to make it.
  • He drained himself down to as far as he could go, but came up short. Burns didn’t cut the last 4-5 pounds which is usually the hardest part of the cut.
  • This will show up tomorrow for a fighter that gassed badly last time out.
  • Chavez is the better striker and should be able to piece the defensively weak Brown up.
  • Bronz play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Chavez should have a legit chance at a finish here once Brown slows.
  • He is affordable and will not be a highly played fighter.
  • Add him.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Livinha Souza -163 vs Ashley Yoder +137

  • Yoder is scrappy, but she has struggled with similar opponents.
  • Souza is better on the mat and Yoder is more than willing to go there.
  • Yoder doesn’t have the pop to win this fight on the feet nor the ground skills to do enough on the floor to add to it.
  • Souza was -250 which makes this price a steal.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • I do have Souza in my lineup for a couple of reasons.
  • She is a submission threat and will land a number of takedowns to augment her score.
  • Yoder’s willingness to trade everywhere will allow Souza to score points.
  • Add her.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Chris Daukaus +100 vs Parker Porter -125

  • Porter’s resume of wins has come largely against similarly sized HWs- 6’0″ tall or less and probably a natural LHW or MW.
  • Daukaus is not that- he is far from a super impressive HW, but he is bigger, longer, and should be able to outwork Porter on short notice.
  • Bronze play on Daukaus.

Prop Bet:

  • See Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

Kai Kamaka -210 vs Tony Kelley +175

  • This fight was added extremely late.
  • Kamaka fought 2 weeks ago while Kelley has next to no cage time over the last couple of years.
  • Kamaka should be the busier fighter and edge this one out.
  • Not a super big bet option, Bronze play on Kai.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Kamaka is a decision machine- pass.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

 

Confidence List

1. Merab Dvalishvili -250

2. Jairzinho Rozenstruik -138

3. Virna Jandiroba -334

4. Livinha Souza -163

5. Herbert Burns -275

====================

6. Vinc Pichel -138

7. Kai Kamaka -210

8. Marlon Vera +225

9. Stipe Miocic -110

10. Danny Chavez +130

11. Chris Daukaus +100

12.

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Marlon Vera +225

2. Danny Chavez +130

3. Jairzinho Rozenstruik -138

4. Stipe Miocic -110

5. Chris Daukaus +100

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

EPU Candidate(s)

1. Chris Daukaus to Win by TKO/KO +200

Of his 8 wins, Daukaus has won by knockout 7 times. Parker has been finished 4-times, twice by knockout. Daukaus is the bigger man and should be able to impose his will here.

2. Kai Kamaka to Win by Decision +125

Of Kamaka’s 7 wins, 6 are by decision. Kelley has never been finished and has even gone a full 5 rounds with a current member of the UFC roster. Decent play based on the stats.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
2381535%

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

FPO Candidate

1. Vinc Pichel to Win by Decision +190

Pichel has been a decision machine and it usually takes an elite fighter to finish Jim. I expect Jim to start strong, but if he can’t hit that early sub, Pichel outworks him and takes it on the cards.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
1911858%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
104640%

 icon-circle  icon-circle  

HEF Candidate(s)

1. Stipe Miocic -110 vs Daniel Cormier -110

2. Junior Dos Santos +110 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik -138

3. Jim Miller +110 vs Vinc Pichel -138

4. TJ Brown -160 vs Danny Chavez +130

5. Livinha Souza -163 vs Ashley Yoder +137

6. Chris Daukaus +100 vs Parker Porter -125

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
102525051%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
102465645%