UFC 251: Usman vs Masvidal | Bet Pack Review

UFC 251: Usman vs Masvidal | Bet Pack Review

 Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Max Holloway  to Win +187
ODDS: +187
BET: 6u
RETURN: 17.22u

 

BET #2
+ Marcin Tybura  to Win -110
+ Karol Rosa  to Win -225
ODDS: +176
BET: 8u
RETURN: 22.06u

BET #3
+ Volkan Oezdemir  to Win -160
ODDS: -160
BET: 5u
RETURN: 8.13u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Jessica Andrade  to Win +170
ODDS: +170
BET: 5
RETURN: 13.5u

 

BET #2
+ Makwan Amirkhani  to Win -188
+ Petr Yan  to Win -220
ODDS: +123
BET: 6u
RETURN: 13.37u

 

BET #3
+ Davey Grant  to Win +150
ODDS: +150
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12.5u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Jorge Masvidal  to Win +200
ODDS: +200
BET: 5u
RETURN: 15u

 

BET #2
+ Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos  to Win +110
ODDS: +110
BET: 4u
RETURN: 8.4u

 

BET #3
+ Leonardo Santos  to Win -175
+ Raulian Paiva  to Win -175
ODDS: +147
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12.35u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Leonardo Santos   to Win inside the Distance +175
+ Amanda Ribas to Win Inside the Distance
+110
ODDS: +478
BET: 3u
RETURN: 17.33u

 

BET #2
+ Max Holloway  to Win +187
+ Jessica Andrade  to Win +170
ODDS: +675
BET: 3u
RETURN: 23.25u

BET #3
+ Jorge Masvidal  to Win +200
+ Davey Grant  to Win +150
ODDS: +650
BET: 3u
RETURN: 22.5u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Marcin Tybura  to Win -110
+ Karol Rosa  to Win -225
+ Max Holloway  to Win +187
ODDS: +691
BET: 8u
RETURN: 63.31u

BET #2
+ Marcin Tybura  to Win -110
+ Karol Rosa  to Win -225
+ Volkan Oezdemir  to Win -160
ODDS: +348
BET: 8u
RETURN: 35.85u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Makwan Amirkhani  to Win -188
+ Petr Yan  to Win -220
+ Jessica Andrade  to Win +170
ODDS: +502
BET: 6u
RETURN: 36.1u

BET #2
+ Makwan Amirkhani  to Win -188
+ Petr Yan  to Win -220
+ Davey Grant  to Win +150
ODDS: +457
BET: 6u
RETURN: 33.42u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Leonardo Santos  to Win -175
+ Raulian Paiva  to Win -175
+ Jorge Masvidal  to Win +200
ODDS: +641
BET: 5u
RETURN: 37.04u

 

BET #2
+ Leonardo Santos  to Win -175
+ Raulian Paiva  to Win -175
+ Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos  to Win +110 
ODDS: +419
BET: 5u
RETURN: 25.93u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Jessica Andrade  to Win +170
+ Marcin Tybura  to Win -110
+ Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos  to Win +110
ODDS: +982
BET: 4u
RETURN: 43.3u

BET #2
+ Amanda Ribas to Win Inside the Distance +110
+ Jorge Masvidal  to Win +200
+ Makwan Amirkhani  to Win -188
ODDS: +865
BET: 4u
RETURN: 38.6u

 

BET #3
+ Leonardo Santos   to Win inside the Distance +175
+ Max Holloway  to Win +187
+ Davey Grant  to Win +150
ODDS: +1873
BET: 4u
RETURN: 78.93u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Jorge Masvidal $7300
+ Max Holloway $7100
Davey Grant $7700
+ Amanda Ribas $9500
+ Karol Rosa $9200
+ Leonardo Santos $8800

Spares

+ Jessica Andrade $7200
Makwan Amirkhani $8600
+ Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos $8000
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Kamaru Usman -250 vs Jorge Masvidal +200

  • 6-days notice for Masvidal, but all indications were he was getting ready before that, including training with Poirier.
  • 64% of 1776 picks are backing Usman which makes sense- impressive last fight & better conditions heading into fight
  • Masvidal opened around +200, move up to +227, but has now settled back around +200, +215 on some sites.
  • Usman is getting a big rub after beating a very good opponent, but Masvidal is a different fighter than Colby or anyone that Usman has beat recently.
  • Unless the loss of Brown and rumoured big weight-cut become huge factors, Jorge will be far less impacted by the short notice then we expect.
  • So much uncertainty and a tough opponent prevent this fight from being a top play.
  • Bronze play for Jorge.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Masvidal is a solid inclusion for your lineup.
  • At $7300 he is very affordable and has a strong finishing track record.
  • His last 5 wins have all come by knockout and 87% of Masvidal backers pick him by knockout.
  • Usman showed he was hittable against a less technical striker in Colby
  • Add him, but consider subbing in Jessica Andrade for variety.

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Alexander Volkanovski -225 vs Max Holloway +187

  • Holloway is 1-1 in rematch fights, lost vs Poirier after losing the first fight. Beat Aldo in both bouts.
  •  Prior to their first fight, it could be argued that Max was running on fumes and Volk was in a much better spot:
    • Max 3 previous fights: absorbed 384 strikes, fought 14 rounds
    • Only 5 months off between Edgar & Volkanovski fights
    • Volkanovski 2 previous fights: absorbed 57 strikes, fought just 5 rounds
    • A full year off before Max fight
  • That scenario favours Alexander Volkanovski and could have impacted Max’s performance
  • For this fight: each has 7 months to recoup- similar to DC/Stipe 1 & 2- Stipe benefit from the extra time prior to the rematch.
  • The line has had minimal movement, with most sites offering between +170 and +190
  • Max talked about not training, but that is most likely head games.
  • Holloway is the more diverse fighter and appeared to be making adjustments in last fight, but it was too late.
  • The loser will make adjustments, Winner often sticks with a similar (successful) game plan.
  • I like Holloway to get it done with more active striking early, checking leg kicks bodywork, and pushing a stronger pace than last fight.
  • Gold play for Holloway.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Max offers volume and the potential for a finish.
  • I feel this fight is most likely going the distance, but the volume should be there for Holloway.
  • Even in defeat, he scored 67 points which is decent for this price.
  • Max creates the potential for bigger signings and is an easy addition.
  • Add him.

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Petr Yan -220 vs Jose Aldo +180

  • As much as I feel Aldo shouldn’t be in this fight, I understand why they put him in it.
  • We are getting some slightly improved odds on Yan, as he has improved from his -240 open.
  • There has been some money coming in on Aldo which has moved the line, but we are still seeing well over 70% favouring Yan.
  • Aldo’s only BW fight was 3 rounds vs a fighter that was coming off a title fight that he lost bc he gassed and Marlon fought accordingly.
  • Yan is quicker, more defensively sound, and more willing to let his hands go.
  • Aldo needs a return to his leg kicking form which we have not seen in a while.
  • Big fight for Yan, he needs to step up.
  • Silver play for Yan.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Jessica Andrade +170 vs Rose Namajunas -200

  • The line movement in this fight has been far greater than any other main can bout.
  • Andrade opened around +145, but has steadily climbed in value as money has come in on Rose.
  • For their first fight, Andrade was a slight favorite around -120.
  • It was clear that Rose won round 1 and looked great, but I feel she was faltering in round 2 prior to the slam.
  • Andrade was closing the distance, landing more strikes, and the impact of Rose backing up was showing
  • Rose looked great and still lost, that has to have a mental impact as well.
  • Andrade recovers from title fight loss better.
  • Andrade Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Andrade is a solid option to add into your lineup.
  • I feel like she has high volume potential and the finish is always on the table.
  • With many people playing Rose based off of R1, you will get some unique points with a win.
  • At $7200 she is affordable and can be switched in and out with Masvidal to create some variety in your lineups.

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Amanda Ribas -800 vs Paige VanZant +550

  • Clearly the line is slant too heavily in Ribas’s favour to consider a bet in this spot.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Amanda Ribas Wins Inside the Distance +110
  • PVZ is a tough out, but she was submitted by both Rose and Waterson.
  • Ribas subbed Whitmire in her debut, but each of her last opponents went the distance.
  • I think that Ribas has a wide advantage on the mat (key area for PVZ) and is a better striker too.
  • UFC looking to quiet PVZ heading into free agency.
  • Keep both the sub and knockout finishes in play.

DK Lineup:

  • PVZ is hittable and can be taken down.
  • She has struggled against lesser grapplers, Ostovich was winning the fight with takedowns and control time.
  • Ribas should be able to put up some decent points and finish is on the table.
  • Big-ticket WMMA fighters often get overlooked, so look for unique points while others load up elsewhere.

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Volkan Oezdemir -160 vs Jiri Prochazka +130

  • Line movement has been minimal with the range coming between -150 and the current -160
  • I have seen as low as -140 on Volkan, but that is rare.
  • Prochazka is taking a big step up in quality of competition.
  • Oezdemir’s only TKO loss came via wrestling based TKO vs DC
  • 23 of 26 of Jiri’s wins have come by knockout and he has limited experience beyond round 1.
  • His last 5 opponents have combined for 25 career losses.
  • Volkan doesn’t fit the mold of Prochazka’s traditional wins and is a big step up.
  • Gold play for Oezdemir.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Muslim Salikhov -138 vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos +110

  • The Brazilian was a larger dog at the open, around +165 so we have lost some value, but I am still ok with the dog status.
  • Dos Santos should be able to match Salikhov on the feet, but look for him to go to his grappling.
  • Dos Santos identified that Millender was weak on the mat and took him down ASAP, he should look for that here too.
  • This should be a volatile fight either way.
  • Bronze play on Santos.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Dos Santos is a proven finisher and quite affordable at $8000.
  • I expect him to look for a few takedowns in this fight in search of the sub.
  • That isn’t ruling out a knockout on the feet, especially if he can make this a demanding fight.
  • Add him.

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Makwan Amirkhani -188 vs Danny Henry +162

  • The line on Makwan is dropping quick and some books have him as low as -200.
  • Henry is a fighter that seems to be all in or all out.
  • He lost the opening round of his debut, but his opponent gassed and his last 2 fights have been very quick.
  • Amirkhani’s striking is improving and he should have a big edge in the grappling.
  • My only concern is that he gasses out.
  • If Henry loses the opening round and the Live line moves against him, evaluate how Makwan looks on the stool to see if Henry is worth a small Live bet against a fading opponent.
  • Silver play for Amirkhani

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • The potential for a submission win is there for Makwan.
  • If he can’t get the finish, he should be able to land takedowns and control the action there.
  • At $8600, consider Makwan as an option.
  • That being said, Davey Grant potentially offers the same potential at a much cheaper price.
  • Use Grant in your top lineup and Makwan to mix it up.

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Roman Bogatov +150 vs Leonardo Santos -175

  • Bogatov is 1 of multiple (3) champions debuting as an underdog.
  • His reliance on takedowns is quite concerning against a BJJ Black with good counter striking.
  • The line is moving in our favour with Santos starting around -190.
  • The age and layoff of the Brazilian is my biggest concern.
  • Bronze Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Leonardo Santos to Win inside the Distance +175
  • Santos’s grappling is lethal and he should be able to capitalize on Bogatov’s reliance on the mat.
  • If they stay on the feet, Santos has a sniper of a right hand and solid body kicks.
  • The combo of the two could get Bogatov countered and KOed or hurt and subbed.

DK Lineup:

  • Santos is rather unassuming, but also a killer in multiple ways.
  • Look at my Prop breakdown above for further justification.
  • Add him.

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Marcin Tybura -110 vs Maxim Grishin -110

  • We had a bigger open at -145 for Tybura, but the line has settled nicely to a pick’em fight.
  • Grishin is coming in on short notice and is a natural LHW.
  • If he can maintain separation, he could outbox Tybura.
  • Tybura’s takedown game should be able to capitalize on a fighter that struggled with a former MW’s wrestling.
  • Tybura’s grinding style and size will wear in the shot notice debutant.
  • Gold play for Tybura.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Raulian Paiva -175 vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov +150

  • This was a near pick’em fight at the open, but the line almost immediately jumped into the -165 range.
  • Paiva is 1-2, but he has had some bad luck so far.
  • Zhumagulov is capable, but I feel like he was signed to fight at home at the UFC Kazakhstan event and not because he was UFC ready.
  • Paiva is an aggressive striker and good grappler, he should be able to work his way through this one.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Vanessa Melo +187 vs Karol Rosa -225

  • The line on Rosa is climbing, but you can still get her at a solid price of -250 or below.
  • Melo has gone 0-2 and never really been in either of her fights.
  • She lacks volume and variety, willingly plodding forward into her opponent’s striking range.
  • Rosa threw a tonne of volume in her debut and should be able to replicate that here, but with a bigger gap.
  • Melo is also very vulnerable on the mat.
  • Rosa walks away with this one.
  • Gold play for Rosa, most likely parlayed with Tybura.

Prop Bet:

  • See Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Rosa throws a tonne of volume, nearly 200 significant strikes in her debut and Melo is more hittable.
  • With 126 points in that decisions, she can most likely put up something similar here.
  • If she gets the stoppage, all the better.

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Martin Day -175 vs Davey Grant +150

  • Grant/Day both opened at -110, but Grant the money has rolled in on Day and Grant’s value has gone way up.
  • Only 33% of 1850 picks side with Grant which is indicative of the line movement.
  • Day struggled with his opponent’s grappling on the Contender Series and he needs distance to set up his kicks.
  • Grant’s aggressive pursuit of the ground will be key, his scrambling game is also important
  • The biggest concern is that he gasses out and gets finished.
  • Silver Play for Grant.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Grant’s takedowns and transition game against a kick heavy striker like Day should produce points.
  • Grant has yet to earn a UFC submission, but that could change here, especially if he gets Day’s back.
  • A cheaper option then Amirkhani, Grant allows us to add big-ticket players like Santos, Rosa, and Ribas.

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Confidence List

1. Amanda Ribas -800

2. Karol Rosa -225

3. Marcin Tybura -110

4. Volkan Oezdemir -160

5. Makwan Amirkhani -188

====================

6. Max Holloway +187

7. Petr Yan -220

8. Jessica Andrade +170

9. Leonardo Santos -175

10. Raulian Paiva -175

11. Davey Grant +150

12. Jorge Masvidal +200

13. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos +110

 

Value Bet List

1. Max Holloway +187

2. Jessica Andrade +170

3. Jorge Masvidal +200

4. Davey Grant +150

5. Marcin Tybura -110

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Vanessa Melo/Karol Rosa

No Play. Melo took a pretty decent beating in her last 2 fights and kept coming. Rosa can dish it out, but I don’t feel a strong lean either way.

2. Martin Day/Davey Grant Total Rounds Under 2.5 +185

Grant by submission or Day by knockout. These guys will press each other hard and while I have Grant as the more likely to get the victory if he gases out Day could finish him. Solid return for 2.5 rounds.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
21
6 of 21 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
2281436%

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FPO Candidate

1. Volkan Oezdemir/Jiri Prochazka Total Rounds Over 1.5 -145

With both fighters offering big knockout numbers playing Over 2.5 rounds or a decision for Volkan seems a little risky. I like the over 1.5 rounds as a nice compromise. Both guys may come out a little cautious out of respect for each other’s power which should push this fight into the middle round and the Over 1.5

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
1811761%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
104640%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Volkan Oezdemir -160 vs Jiri Prochazka +130

2. Muslim Salikhov -138 vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos +110

3. Marcin Tybura -110 vs Maxim Grishin -110

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
99514852%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
99465346%

 

 

 

 

Scott Johnson

scott

Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel's popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.