UFC 250: Nunes vs Spencer | Premium Bet Pack

UFC 250: Nunes vs Spencer | Premium Bet Pack

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Neil Magny  to Win -138
+ Chase Hooper  to Win -188
ODDS: +164
BET: 12u
RETURN: 31.7u

 

BET #2
+ Gerald Meerschaert  to Win +100
ODDS: +100
BET: 7u
RETURN: 14u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Aljamain Sterling  to Win -110
ODDS: -110
BET: 6u
RETURN: 11.45u

 

BET #2
+ Raphael Assuncao  to Win +110
ODDS: +110
BET: 6u
RETURN: 12.6u

 

BET #2
+ Jussier Formiga to Win +110
ODDS: +110
BET: 6u
RETURN: 12.6u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Devin Clark  to Win +187
ODDS: +187
BET: 3u
RETURN: 8.61u

 

BET #2
+ Cody Stamann  to Win -275
+ Charles Byrd  to Win -175
+ Herbert Burns  to Win -220
ODDS: +212
BET: 4u
RETURN: 12.47u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Chase Hooper
to Win by Submission   +150
ODDS: +150
BET: 3u
RETURN: 7.5u

 

BET #2
+ Gerald Meerschaert  to Win +100
+ Sean O’Malley  to Win Inside the Distance -150
ODDS: +233
BET: 4u
RETURN: 13.33u

BET #3
+ Neil Magny  to Win -138
+ Aljamain Sterling  to Win -110
+ Amanda Nunes   to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -135
ODDS: +473
BET: 5u
RETURN: 28.66u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Neil Magny  to Win -138
+ Chase Hooper  to Win -188
+ Gerald Meerschaert  to Win +100
ODDS: +428
BET: 12u
RETURN: 63.41u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Aljamain Sterling  to Win -110
+ Raphael Assuncao  to Win +110
+ Jussier Formiga to Win +110
ODDS: +742
BET: 10u
RETURN: 84.19u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Cody Stamann  to Win -275
+ Herbert Burns  to Win -220
+ Devin Clark  to Win +187
ODDS: +469
BET: 7u
RETURN: 39.85u

BET #2
+ Cody Stamann  to Win -275
+ Herbert Burns  to Win -220
+ Charles Byrd  to Win -175
ODDS: +212
BET: 5u
RETURN: 15.58u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Gerald Meerschaert  to Win +100
+ Devin Clark  to Win +187
+ Jussier Formiga to Win +110
ODDS: +1105
BET: 5u
RETURN: 60.27u

 

BET #2
+ Herbert Burns  to Win Inside the Distance -120
+ Sean O’Malley  to Win Inside the Distance -150
+ Chase Hooper to Win by Submission +150
ODDS: +664
BET: 5u
RETURN: 38.19u

BET #3
+ Neil Magny  to Win -138
+ Aljamain Sterling  to Win -110
+ Amanda Nunes   to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -135
ODDS: +473
BET: 7u
RETURN: 40.12u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Raphael Assuncao  $7600
+ Chase Hooper $8500
+ Gerald Meerschaert $7800
+ Sean O’Malley $9300
+ Amanda Nunes $9400
+ Devin Clark  $7200

Spares

+ Neil Magny $8700
+ Herbert Burns $8900
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Amanda Nunes -600 vs Felicia Spencer +450

  • Spencer is underrated here and while Nunes has smashed bigger names, there is nothing worth looking at for a straight-up bet.
  • I would almost consider a small bet on Spencer to win the title, but we will see how the Counter Bet section plays out.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Amanda Nunes to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -135
  • Nunes had finished 4 of her last 5 opponents by knockout prior to GDR- who she used a ground heavy attack against.
  • Spencer is a BJJ Black belt so Nunes scoring a submission is far less likely than a TKO.
  • Decent return, make an investment.

DK Lineup:

  • I have Nunes in my lineup.
  • She hits hard, has submissions skills, and has shown she can finish early or late.
  • Spencer is no easy out and will push her.
  • Look for the combo of exhaustion and damage to get the best of the challenger late.
  • This scenario is ideal for point production.
  • Add her.

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Raphael Assuncao +110 vs Cody Garbrandt -138

  • It is hard to back a fighter with a trio of KOs, especially this early in his career.
  • Assuncao doesn’t have big power, but he has the timing to stagger Cody if he catches him coming forward.
  • Cody gets in trouble when he opens up, Assuncao style will create that scenario.
  • We aren’t seeing a lot of movement on this fight which is fine with me.
  • Assuncao is routinely undervalued
  • Silver Bet.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.
  • As much as I want to play the finish prop, I want the win SU.

DK Lineup:

  • At just $7600, Assuncao is super affordable.
  • He doesn’t have unreal stopping power, but with “No Love’s” chin, that might not matter.
  • Also, consider the possibility of a knockdown and submission.
  • Add him.

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Cory Sandhagen -110 vs Aljamain Sterling -110

  • This is going to be a great fight!
  • There is some money coming in on Sandhagen, which has moved him from a light dog to even or closer on other books.
  • The tapology split is 53/47 in favour of Sterling which makes sense.
  • I feel like Sterling is a little more advanced in his career and has made adjustments/ improvements that Sandhagen hasn’t been forced to do yet.
  • Close fight.
  • Silver play for Aljo.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Neil Magny -138 vs Anthony Rocco Martin +110

  • I love this fight and I love the direction of the line.
  • Magny was closer to -150 at his open and is trending in the right direction.
  • Martin beats grapplers that he prevents from grappling and then outworks on the feet.
  • He doesn’t offer the volume to hang with Magny and his cardio is suspect if he is forced to keep up or shoot for takedowns.
  • R1 could be close, but Magny will poor it on in R2 & R3 with Martin struggling to deal with reach, speed, pace, volume, cardio.
  • Gold play for Magny.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Magny was close to getting the call based on volume
  • Martin is hard to finish and I could see Neil wanting to sit at range and outwork him without exposing himself to danger.
  • I don’t expect a finish, but close to 100+ sig strikes.
  • Add him to your spare list and sub him in whee needed for variety.

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Sean O’Malley -500 vs Eddie Wineland +380

  • No play straight up.
  • I love Eddie Wineland, but unless he cracks O’Malley with a big right he is up against it here.
  • No play.

Prop Bet:

  • Sean O’Malley to Win Inside the Distance -150
  • O’Malley seems like the type that will want to showcase the full breadth of his offense.
  • I could see him scoring a knockout or hurting Eddie and looking for the sub on the floor.
  • Let’s keep it all in play with the (T)KO more likely.

DK Lineup:

  • O’Malley also gets the call for our Fantasy lineup.
  • He throws a nice variety and strikes long, especially with his kicks.
  • Wineland’s chin is a concern and his willingness to fight with his hands down even more so.
  • O’Malley catches him with something unexpected.
  • Add him.

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Alex Caceres +162 vs Chase Hooper -188

  • The Tapology split is far greater than these odds would suggest; 84/16 in favour of Hooper.
  • Chase is getting the rub from the promotion- is it too soon?
  • Caceres is vulnerable to what Hooper does well and doesn’t have the massive power to concern us- at least early.
  • Look for Hooper’s length and aggressive grappling to exploit Caceres’s biggest defensive gaps.
  • Lots of money coming in on Chase, near even at the open- I still like this line.
  • Gold play for Hooper.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Hooper showed impressive and relentless finishing skills in his debut.
  • The door should be open for something similar here.
  • Caceres is too willing to fight to his opponent’s strength.
  • Add him and expect a finish or a lot of ground control.

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Ian Heinisch -125 vs Gerald Meerschaert +100

  • On, Off, On…again.
  • I am glad we get this fight as it is certainly a fun one.
  • Is there some distraction for Heinisch with his cornerman situation, maybe- hard to say.
  • What I do know is that I have successfully faded him against both Brunson and Omari and feel the same here.
  • His cardio isn’t as great as everyone thinks and he struggles against strong grapplers.
  • If GM3 can take him down, especially once Ian starts to tire- look out or the finish.
  • Gold play for GM3.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • 28 or his 32 career wins by finish including all his UFC wins.
  • At $7800, he is the type of fighter that can finish and leave cash on the table to spend elsewhere.
  • Add him.

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Brian Kelleher +225 vs Cody Stamann -275

  • I have seen a lot of predictors dismiss Kelleher in this fight and I’m not sure that is a smart move.
  • Tapology 77% in favour of Stamann.
  • Kelleher has a lot of momentum and will be loose having fought just a month ago.
  • I liked this line at the open around -180, but I like it less and less as Cody climbs.
  • Bronze play for me, most likely combined with Burns in my HBC.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Charles Byrd -175 vs Maki Pitolo +150

  • Charles Byrd don’t let me down.
  • I have picked him in all 3 of his fights and he has come up short in his last 2.
  • Pitolo did not look good in his debut against a very beatable fighter.
  • Fighting at MW, how will Maki’s power hold up? Big issue if it is not there.
  • CB has more tools and that should be enough, but he needs to prove himself here.
  • Bronze play for Byrd.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Jussier Formiga +110 vs Alex Perez -138 

  • Formiga is the sexy dog on this card.
  • He actually opened as the favourite around -130, but public money has come in on Perez.
  • Most predictors around the web are backing Jussier.
  • Perez looks good, but he really relies on his wrestling to score points and that is not good.
  • Formiga needs this win or he is done contending.
  • Jussier steps up in the feet, finds the edge on the mat, improves on his last performance.
  • Silver play for Formiga.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Devin Clark +187 vs Alonzo Menifield -225

  • There are 2 ways this fight goes; 1) Menifield knocks him out early or 2) Clark avoids the KO and grinds to a decision or late stoppage.
  • Menifield has faced a pair of below-par athletes who wanted to grapple. He stayed vertical and smashed them.
  • Clark can be finished, but he has wrestling and should be able to match Zo’s physicality.
  • Menifield was taken down by Jolly in his first Contender’s bout and was stuck until the ref bailed him out.
  • He also started looking a little sluggish against the Bear Jew after the early exchanges.
  • Clark will take him down, hold him down, and the potential for a KO diminishes as the fight goes.
  • Bronze play on Clark.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Clark has his own power, but there are other reasons for an add.
  • First, he is super affordable.
  • Secondly, takedowns in bunches are there to be had.
  • If those takedowns start piling up, Zo will get tired and finish- GNP or arm triangle will follow.
  • Add him.

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Herbert Burns -220 vs Evan Dunham +180

  • Dunham is back after 2 years away, he is closing on 40 and cutting down 5 extra pounds.
  • Burns is still green, but this is a winnable fight.
  • Burns could target the vulnerable body of Evan and either get a TKO or follow him to the ground for a sub.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario section.

DK Lineup:

  • Burns can finish and Dunham can be finished.
  • Still want to see how Burns holds up in a longer fight at this level.
  • Add him as a spare and use him to mix your lineups up.

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Confidence List

1. Amanda Nunes -600

2. Sean O’Malley -500

3. Neil Magny -138

4. Chase Hooper -188

5. Gerald Meerschaert +100

====================

6. Herbert Burns -220

7. Cody Stamann -275

8. Aljamain Sterling -110

9. Jussier Formiga +110

10. Raphael Assuncao +110

11.  Charles Byrd -175

12. Devin Clark +187

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Devin Clark +187

2. Gerald Meerschaert +100

3. Neil Magny -138

4. Aljamain Sterling -110

5. Jussier Formiga +110

 

Counter Bets

1. Felicia Spencer +450 wait as late as you can because the value will climb. Ideally, you have a parlay with Nunes to finish on the line and hedge it with Spencer (possibly to finish).

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Devin Clark/Alonzo Menifield

No Play. Menifield gets him early or Clark grinds his way to a decision or late stoppage- too much and I just want the dog to cash. Keep it simple.

2. Herbert Burns Inside the Distance -120

It is hard to overlook Dunham’s body durability. Burns hits hard and will throw kicks to midsection which could be enough to get it done. Watch Herbert follow Dunham to the floor for an RNC or triangle choke if he hurts him. Keep everything on the table.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
2381535%

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FPO Candidate

1. Chase Hooper to Win by Submission +150

Caceres has a bad history of getting submitted. Hooper good GNP him to the finish, but Caceres is hard to control and land strikes against. Instead, look for him to lock in an RNC from a dominant back mount once he get’s “Bruce Leeroy” where he wants him.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
1911858%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
104640%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Raphael Assuncao +110 vs Cody Garbrandt -138

2. Cory Sandhagen -110 vs Aljamain Sterling -110

3. Neil Magny -138 vs Anthony Rocco Martin +110

4. Ian Heinisch -125 vs Gerald Meerschaert +100

5. Jussier Formiga +110 vs Alex Perez -138

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
102525051%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
102465645%