UFC 249: Ferguson vs Gaethje | Bet Pack Review

UFC 249: Ferguson vs Gaethje | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Tony Ferguson  to Win -175
+ Vicente Luque  to Win -270
ODDS: +115
BET: 10u
RETURN: 21.53u

 

BET #2
+ Carla Esparza  to Win -148
+ Francis Ngannou  to Win -264
ODDS: +131
BET: 8u
RETURN: 18.48u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Uriah Hall  to Win +118
ODDS: +118
BET: 7u
RETURN: 15.26u

 

BET #2
+ Bryce Mitchell  to Win -152
+ Calvin Kattar  to Win -230
ODDS: +138
BET: 6u
RETURN: 14.27u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Dominick Cruz  to Win +196
ODDS: +196
BET: 6u
RETURN: 17.76u

 

BET #2
+ Donald Cerrone  to Win +125
ODDS: +125
BET: 5u
RETURN: 11.25u

 

BET #3
+ Greg Hardy  to Win -189
+ Tony Ferguson  to Win -175
ODDS: +140
BET: 4u
RETURN: 9.61u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Tony Ferguson  to Win Inside the Distance  -120
+ Francis Ngannou  to Win Inside the Distance -140
ODDS: +214
BET: 4u
RETURN: 12.57u

 

BET #2
+ Greg Hardy   to Win by TKO/KO +150
ODDS: +150
BET: 4u
RETURN: 10u

BET #3
+ Carla Esparza to Win by Decision +100
+ Vicente Luque to Win Inside the Distance
-130
ODDS: +254
BET: 4u
RETURN: 14.15u

BET #4
+ Donald Cerrone   to Win by Decision +375
ODDS: +375
BET: 4u
RETURN: 19u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Tony Ferguson  to Win -175
+ Vicente Luque  to Win -270
+ Carla Esparza  to Win -148
ODDS: +261
BET: 10u
RETURN: 36.08u

 

BET #2
+ Tony Ferguson  to Win -175
+ Vicente Luque  to Win -270
+ Francis Ngannou  to Win -264
ODDS: +197
BET: 8u
RETURN: 23.75u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Bryce Mitchell  to Win -152
+ Calvin Kattar  to Win -230
+ Uriah Hall  to Win +118
ODDS: +138
BET: 6u
RETURN: 14.27u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Dominick Cruz  to Win +196
+ Donald Cerrone  to Win +125
+ Greg Hardy  to Win -189
ODDS: +918
BET: 5u
RETURN: 50.92u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Tony Ferguson  to Win Inside the Distance  -120
+ Francis Ngannou  to Win Inside the Distance -140
+ Greg Hardy   to Win by TKO/KO +150
ODDS: +830
BET: 5u
RETURN: 46.51u

 

BET #2
+ Carla Esparza to Win by Decision +100
+ Vicente Luque to Win Inside the Distance
-130
+ Donald Cerrone   to Win by Decision +375
ODDS: +1581
BET: 5u
RETURN: 84.04u

 

BET #3
+ Uriah Hall  to Win +118
+ Dominick Cruz  to Win +196
+ Carla Esparza  to Win -148
ODDS: +981
BET: 5u
RETURN: 54.06u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Tony Ferguson $8700
+ Uriah Hall $7900
+ Donald Cerrone $8000
+ Dominick Cruz $7400
+ Vicente Luque $9000
+ Greg Hardy $8600

Spares

+ Francis Ngannou $9100
+ Bryce Mitchell $8500
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Tony Ferguson -175 vs Justin Gaethje +164

  • This is clearly not the fight we were anticipating, but it is a pretty solid silver medal.
  • Gaethje has turned his run around against good, but not elite competition, he struggled against top guys.
  • We are getting some decent value on Tony. He opened around -210 and most sites have him between -190 and -170.
  • Ferguson has to avoid eating a big shot, but his pace will be too much for Gaethje.
  • Gold play.

Prop Bet:

  • Tony Ferguson to Win Inside the Distance -120
  • Ferg could easily stop him with strikes, but he loves slapping on that D’arce choke on a failing opponent.
  • Keep everything in play, but going 5 rounds with Tony is not easy so get in on the finish.

DK Lineup:

  • Tony via finish at any point or a decision over 5 rounds will produce point-based volume against a hittable opponent.
  • Maybe a combination of both will be the result.
  • At under $9000, he is a bargain.
  • Add him.

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Henry Cejudo -208 vs Dominick Cruz +196

  • Cruz is taking another shot at the title after a long layoff, this will be a tall order.
  • Is Cejudo a more difficult task than TJ? We will find out.
  • The line has moved very little which is fine with me.
  • Cruz’s defense is the key here and unless he has slipped significantly, Cejudo will struggle to connect with regularity.
  • Cruz presents a similar style to DJ- tough to hit, good movement, good cardio, but Cejudo won’t be able to bully Cruz
  • This still stands to be a close fight, but I like the underdog Cruz here.
  • Still lots of uncertainty.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • I was considering the Decision prop, but I will take a win any way I can get it.

DK Lineup:

  • At $7400, Cruz allows us to add a couple of big-ticket fighters.
  • A finish is unlikely, but the volume over 5 will be solid and a few takedowns could be there too.
  • Add him.

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Francis Ngannou -264 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik +240

  • There is a pretty widespread on Francis. He is he anywhere between -255 and -310.
  • Rozenstruik has looked like a killer in short stints, often good enough to win. Ngannou is another level though.
  • Francis may opt to stand and bang with him, which makes this a closer fight. I hope he takes him down
  • JR has looked lost on the mat and Francis is not someone you want on top of him.
  • I think there is some solid value here.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Francis Ngannou to Win Inside the Distance -140
  • I expected this to be closer to -200.
  • The biggest concern is that JR blasts him and scores his own finish.
  • Keep the sub and KO options on the table for a good price.

DK Lineup:

  • $100 too expensive for our starting lineup, we have to take Hardy at $8600 and leave $400 in the bank.
  • You can still use Ngannou in place of Luque (another killer) to help create variety.
  • He is a sub, but work him into your secondary lineups often.

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Calvin Kattar -230 vs Jeremy Stephens +216

  • Kattar is the more well-rounded fighter, but he needs to be mindful of the power that Stephens presents.
  • The line has not moved much and it set roughly where it should be, which is fine with me.
  • Kattar outworks Stephens and the potential for that one punch finish diminishes as the fight advances.
  • Silver play for Kattar.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Yorgan De Castro +182 vs Greg Hardy -189

  • The line on Hardy is pretty solid compared to the majority of his other fights where he was favoured.
  • Unfortunately, it is degenerating as fight week advances we had a pretty solid open around -185, but now on some sites we are closer to -210.
  • de Castro looked decent in limited action, but he is undersized and far from the athlete that Hardy is.
  • The UFC wants wins for Hardy in order to promote him/ build him up.
  • Hardy is still a developing fighter, but this is a good fight for him
  • Bronze play for Hardy.

Prop Bet:

  • Greg Hardy to Win by TKO/KO +150
  • He couldn’t finish Sosoli or Volkov, so we are getting some value on the finish prop here.
  • There is some concern that Hardy gets tired and can’t finish, but the plus money is sold here.

DK Lineup:

  • Hardy is fairly affordable at $8600 and he has a pretty solid chance of finishing this fight.
  • His size, speed, and punching power all pose problems for his foe.
  • Add him.

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Donald Cerrone +125 vs Anthony Pettis -127

  • I made the comment that the “I have a fight” approach of Cerrone’s is better suited for the current atmosphere than Pettis. Showtime is talented, but he comes up short in more demanding fights and prepping and fighting under these conditions won’t be ideal for him.
  • I also like that Cerrone’s back is against the wall with 3 straight losses. That scenario often produces a victory. What we often get is a fighter coming in with a heightened level of intensity, they are facing lesser competition (McGregor/Ferguson/ Gaethje), and are underestimated.
  • Cerrone has lost 3 in a row before and responded by winning 4 of his next 5.
  • Pettis has been much more inconsistent and I am not sure moving up to 170 will benefit him as carrying more weight will slow him down.
  • That being said, Cerrone could be running on fumes after pushing too hard, too often early in his career.
  • He gets a little swagger back after his last fight.
  • Cerrone- Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario section.

DK Lineup:

  • Cowboy has finished his opponent in 8 of his last 9 wins.
  • Pettis has been stopped in 4 of his last 5 defeats
  • Even though this fight stands a good chance of going the distance, Cerrone is an affordable play with finishing potential.
  • Add him.

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Aleksei Oleinik +279 vs Fabricio Werdum -300

  • Werdum has been out too long and there is simply too much uncertainty about his mental and physical state to consider a bet at this price.
  • This is an easy pass.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Carla Esparza -148 vs Michelle Waterson +140

  • Carla might not get back into title contention, but she seems to have found her niche as a grinding veteran that will determine who will be a top contender in the division.
  • Waterson fits that mold as well, but she doesn’t have as nearly a clear cut path to victory in her fights.
  • We have lost a little value on this line with Carla closer to -125 at the open, but I do enjoy fading the public when they back dogs and Waterson appears to be a popular dog.
  • Esparza takes her down, grinds on her, and simply outworks her start to finish.
  • Gold play for Carla.

Prop Bet:

  • Carla Esparza to Win by Decision +100
  • Esparza has yet to finish an opponent since her debut against Rose.
  • Waterson has been finished just once during her UFC run, also by Rose.
  • I see Carla focussing on position over submission.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Uriah Hall +118 vs Ronaldo Souza -119

  • The line is drawing close to even on many websites that might catch a few off guard. I have seen multiple posts that list Jacare as their lock.
  • Unfortunately, I think he is faltering and Hall showed he has the skill set to overcome a talented BJJ player that starts to slow down.
  • Souza is too vulnerable on the feet and his durability is not where it needs to be to deal with the sharp and impactful striking of Hall.
  • Hall needs to get out of R1 and focus on his defense to do so.
  • Silver Bet- Hall.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • With Prime Time coming in at $7900 and his ability to score a knockout at any point in a fight, he is an ideal candidate.
  • If you figure in the aging Jacare’s questionable durability that has seen him get hurt in multiple fights- Hall becomes an even better candidate.
  • Add him.

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Vicente Luque -270 vs Niko Price +252

  • I know Price is fighting at home and Luque is on the road this time around.
  • I know Price has made considerable strides and Luque is coming off a tough loss.
  • But this fight still seems to be pretty comfortably Luque’s to win.
  • Vicente is more durable, hits harder, and more diverse in all areas.
  • Vicente’s only real area of concern is if his cardio collapses and Price is able to outwork him for 2 rounds and take a decision.
  • We have seen others attempt this approach and fail. Niko will too.
  • Luque is a Gold Play for me.

Prop Bet:

  • Vicente Luque to Win Inside the Distance -130
  • I would not feel comfortable picking a KO or Sub win straight up.
  • Luque smashed Price on the feet in their first fight and ended with a sub.
  • He could do the same again or opt to keep throwing hands.
  • Keep both on the table and play this prop upwards on your bet card.

DK Lineup:

  • Luque has finished his opponent in all but 1 of his UFC victories.
  • Luque finished Price in their first fight.
  • We can afford to add him. Nuff said.
  • Add him.

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Bryce Mitchell -152 vs Charles Rosa +145

  • Rosa didn’t do much in his last fight, at least until the very end- but win is a win.
  • I feel like abrupt wins that come in a sequence like that often lead a fighter into a much tougher fight or a bout that they are simply over-matched in.
  • Mitchell is bigger than Rosa, more aggressive, and at a much better spot in his career.
  • The line is moving to reflect this with Bryce passing the -160 mark on multiple sites, bet soon.
  • Silver play for Thug Nasty.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • I have Mitchell as a spare.
  • He has shown he can finish, but Rosa is no easy out.
  • I think you have options moving Luque and Hardy out in favour of Ngannou and Mitchell.
  • Or you can get creative and drop Ferguson & Hardy keep Luque and have Mitchell and Ngannou as another lineup.

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Sam Alvey +353 vs Ryan Spann -400

  • Spann is the better fighter, but this is an easy no play as one punch could change it.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Confidence List

1. Vicente Luque -270

2. Francis Ngannou -264

3. Tony Ferguson -175

4. Fabricio Werdum -300

5. Bryce Mitchell -152

====================

6. Carla Esparza -148

7. Calvin Kattar -230

8. Ryan Spann -400

9. Greg Hardy -189

10. Uriah Hall +118

11. Dominick Cruz +196

12. Donald Cerrone +125

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Dominick Cruz +196

2. Donald Cerrone +125

3. Uriah Hall +118

4. Carla Esparza -148

5. Tony Ferguson -175

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Ryan Spann to Win by TKO/KO +175

Alvey has been knocked out in 2 of his last 3 defeats, and 3 times overall. His TDD is solid which should keep Spann from working his way to the mat to set up his submissions. Spann is bigger, stronger, and more athletic. I will take a decent return on such a heavy favour.

2. Bryce Mitchell/Charles Rosa

No Play.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
2381535%

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FPO Candidate

1. Donald Cerrone to Win by Decision +375

The line here is too good to pass by. If you look at the scenarios here, Cerrone by decision is a very interesting play. 1) Cerrone has lost 3 in a row, we often see a fighter rally and win their next fight. 2) This is a rematch of a first fight that ended fairly quickly which often is followed by a longer second fight. 3) Finally, it is the FPO- which as we know often goes the distance. I also like that Pettis is particularly vulnerable to defeat in decisions. Great odds, take a shot.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
1911858%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
104640%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Donald Cerrone +125 vs Anthony Pettis -127

2. Carla Esparza -148 vs Michelle Waterson +140

3. Uriah Hall +118 vs Ronaldo Souza -119

4. Bryce Mitchell -152 vs Charles Rosa +145

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
102525051%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
102465645%