UFC 248: Adesanya vs Romero | Premium Bet Pack Review

UFC 248: Adesanya vs Romero | Premium Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Zhang Weili  to Win -150
ODDS: -150
BET: 8u
RETURN: 13.33u

 

BET #2
+ Li Jingliang  to Win -167
+ Beneil Dariush to Win  -162
ODDS: +159
BET: 7u
RETURN: 18.1u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Jamall Emmers to Win  -170
+ Mark Madsen  to Win -205
ODDS: +136
BET: 5u
RETURN: 11.81u

 

BET #2
+ Alex Oliveira  to Win -133
+ Israel Adesanya to Win  -260
ODDS: +143
BET: 5u
RETURN: 12.13u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Deron Winn  to Win -135
ODDS: -135
BET: 4u
RETURN: 6.96u

 

BET #2
+ Emily Whitmire  to Win +110
+ Danaa Batgerel  to Win -120
ODDS: -120
BET: 4u
RETURN: 7.33u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Israel Adesanya  to Win by Decision +180
ODDS: +180
BET: 4u
RETURN: 11.2u

 

BET #2
+ Li Jingliang  to Win -167
+ Jamall Emmers to Win  -170
+ Rodolfo Vieira to Win by Submission  -190
ODDS: +288
BET: 4u
RETURN: 15.5u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Li Jingliang  to Win -167
+ Beneil Dariush to Win  -162
+ Zhang Weili  to Win -150
ODDS: +331
BET: 10u
RETURN: 43.1u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Jamall Emmers to Win  -170
+ Mark Madsen  to Win -205
+ Alex Oliveira  to Win -133
ODDS: +314
BET: 7u
RETURN: 28.98u

 

BET #2
+ Alex Oliveira  to Win -133
+ Israel Adesanya to Win  -260
+ Jamall Emmers to Win  -170
ODDS: +285
BET: 7u
RETURN: 26.97u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Emily Whitmire  to Win +110
+ Deron Winn  to Win -135
+ Danaa Batgerel  to Win -120
ODDS: +570
BET: 5u
RETURN: 33.51u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Israel Adesanya  to Win by Decision +180
+ Zhang Weili  to Win -150
+ Danaa Batgerel  to Win -120
ODDS: +756
BET: 5u
RETURN: 42.78u

 

BET #2
+ Beneil Dariush to Win  -162
+ Jamall Emmers to Win -170
+ Deron Winn  to Win -135
ODDS: +347
BET: 6u
RETURN: 26.83u

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Jingliang Li $8600
+ Deron Winn $8300
+ Emily Whitmire $8100
+ Joanna Jedrzejczyk $7300
+ Rudolfo Vieira $9300
+ Danaa Batgerel $8200

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Israel Adesanya -260 vs Yoel Romero +240

  • Romero is a monster, so betting against him at this type of return isn’t overly enticing.
  • I like the opening line with Adesanya around -185, but we aren’t there anymore.
  • Instead, let’s take a look at Adesanya straight up as a mid-level investment and take a look at a possible Prop option
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Israel Adesanya to Win by Decision +180
  • Romero is pretty durable and not always easy to hit.
  • Adesanya is coming off a brutal knockout of Whittaker, but 1 fight earlier he went the full 25 with Gastelum.
  • I think the second scenario is more likely. Bet accordingly.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Zhang Weili -150 vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk +175

  • The line has had minimal movement, but it would appear that Zhang is trending in the right direction.
  • JJ is a tough out, but unless she can keep Zhang on the outside for the entire fight- she is going to be hardpressed to win this one.
  • Zhang is more durable, hits harder, and is just as active with the potential to wrestle mixed in.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • I have JJ in my lineup out of necessity.
  • She is super affordable and I don’t have a lot of dogs in my lineup.
  • If she wins it will most likely be over 5 rounds with a lot of volume 125+ strikes.
  • Even if she loses she could still produce 5 rounds of volume with a decent return.
  • Add her.

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Beneil Dariush -162 vs Drakkar Klose +152

  • I have never been a big fan of Klose, he just isn’t my type of fighter.
  • Depending on where you look Dariush is anywhere between -155 and -170.
  • Dariush is no picnic on the mat which takes away a key weapon of Klose.
  • Klose can be taken down which is big if Dariush gets him there.
  • I like Beneil on the feet.
  • Gold Bet.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Li Jingliang -167 vs Neil Magny +157

  • The line on Li has come down heavily with his original number set around -275 which is big for us.
  • Magny has been out of action for a while and his style seems to have been figured out.
  • Li has the skills to create the issues that Magny has struggled with before.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Li has proven himself to be a finisher and the durability of Magny is a question mark.
  • He should be able to add in some volume and maybe a few takedowns making a decision still a point producer.
  • Add him.

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Max Griffin +125 vs Alex Oliveira -133

  • The line on Oliveira has moved significantly in our favour.
  • Opening around -215 we are getting some decent value here now.
  • Backing a fighter on a 3-fight losing streak has proven beneficial, I will role with that trend.
  • Silver Play for the other “Cowboy”

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Sean O’Malley -310 vs Jose Quinonez +300

  • O’Malley has a lot of hype surrounding him and we have seen the UFC do this before.
  • The layoff is a major concern and Quinonez has shown solid improvement.
  • This is an easy pass.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Austin Hubbard +195 vs Mark Madsen -205

  • Madsen is a talented fighter with minimal miles on his body (this is the counter to the concern about age).
  • The drop in Madsen’s line is crazy, he opened around -700/750 on some sites.
  • That movement right there is enough to make him a play worth looking into.
  • For me, he works in the middle of my bet card.
  • Silver play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Saparbek Safarov +500 vs Rodolfo Vieira -570

  • This stands to be an entertaining and messy fight.
  • I can’t bet it straight up, certainly not at this line.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Rodolfo Vieira to Win by Submission -190
  • The return isn’t great, but if you want to bet this fight the BJJ ace by sub is probably your best option.

DK Lineup:

  • Vieira is a finisher and Safarov’s lack of concern for his defense opens him up to getting finished.
  • Add him.

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Gerald Meerschaert +125 vs Deron Winn -135

  • A lot of people are backing GM3 here and I get it.
  • Winn is coming off a pretty dismal showing, but so is Meerschaert
  • Winn missed weight for his last bout and a tough cut would have been a contributor to a poor performance.
  • Look for him to put forth a performance that is closer to his debut- counter wrestling and volume.
  • GM3 is a veteran fighter, but he will also fade and if he can’t take Winn down his best weapon becomes a non-factor.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Winn has shown on the regional scene that he can finish and GM3 can be finished.
  • More importantly, he can put up some big numbers with his volume/ takedowns and they will add up as well.
  • Add him.

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Polyana Viana -111 vs Emily Whitmire +110

  • Whitmire missed weight and the majority of the fighters that miss weight win their fight- not all, but the percentages favour Whitmire.
  • Viana hasn’t impressed me and while she is on a 3 fight losing skid- she really hasn’t shown she can win at this level.
  • I think Emily is the better fighter overall.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Whitmire has shown she can finish and Viana is vulnerable, especially as the fight advances.
  • At $8100, she is affordable.
  • Add her.

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Jamall Emmers -170 vs Giga Chikadze +160

  • Giga looked decent in his debut, but narrowly got a win versus an opponent that he matched up well with.
  • Emmers’s wrestling is a major concern for a kickboxer that has not fair well on the mat.
  • Emmers is also capable enough to hold his own on the floor between takedowns.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Danaa Batgerel -120 vs Guido Cannetti +115

  • Cannetti has been out of action for a long time and he is 40-years old (very old for the lighter divisions).
  • Batgerel is durable enough to survive the early exchanges and out Guido in some tough spots.
  • Pick the more durable, younger, and overall more skilled fighter.
  • Bronze Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Guido has been finished in all of his pro losses.
  • Batgerel carries a pretty steady pace and that will test a fighter that doesn’t do well outside of round 1.
  • Add him.

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Confidence List

1. Rodolfo Vieira -570

2. Beneil Dariush -162

3. Zhang Weili -150

4. Li Jingliang -167

5. Jamall Emmers -170

====================

6. Israel Adesanya -260

7. Mark Madsen -205

8. Sean O’Malley -310

9. Danaa Batgerel -120

10. Alex Oliveira -133

11. Emily Whitmire +110

12. Deron Winn -135

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Zhang Weili -150

2. Emily Whitmire +110

3. Danaa Batgerel -120

4. Alex Oliveira -133

5. Deron Winn -135

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Jamall Emmers/Giga Chikadze

No play here. I think Emmers can finish him, but I want to keep it simple and pick up the win any way we can get it.

2. Danaa Batgerel to Win Inside the Distance +210

Cannetti has been submitted in all 4 of his pro defeats. He tends to fade after round 1 and if Batgerel pushes the pace we expect him to, he should be able to overwhelm him eventually. Play for Batgerel to get the finish.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
6
8
11
3 of 10 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
112918%

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FPO Candidate

1. Sean O’Malley/Jose Quinonez

O’Malley has finishing skills but hasn’t shown them at this level. As much as I would like to take a shot at the Decision prop here it is probably better to avoid this fight with O’Malley returning from such a long layoff. Pass.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
86275%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
52340%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Zhang Weili -150 vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk +175

2. Beneil Dariush -162 vs Drakkar Klose +152

3. Max Griffin +125 vs Alex Oliveira -133

4. Gerald Meerschaert +125 vs Deron Winn -135

5. Polyana Viana -111 vs Emily Whitmire +110

6. Danaa Batgerel -120 vs Guido Cannetti +115

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
56263046%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
56292752%

 

 

 

 

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