When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Zhang Weili
to Win
-150
ODDS:
-150
BET:
8u
RETURN:
13.33u
BET #2
+ Li Jingliang
to Win
-167
+ Beneil Dariush
to Win
-162
ODDS:
+159
BET:
7u
RETURN:
18.1u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Jamall Emmers
to Win
-170
+ Mark Madsen
to Win
-205
ODDS:
+136
BET:
5u
RETURN:
11.81u
BET #2
+ Alex Oliveira
to Win
-133
+ Israel Adesanya
to Win
-260
ODDS:
+143
BET:
5u
RETURN:
12.13u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Deron Winn
to Win
-135
ODDS:
-135
BET:
4u
RETURN:
6.96u
BET #2
+ Emily Whitmire
to Win
+110
+ Danaa Batgerel
to Win
-120
ODDS:
-120
BET:
4u
RETURN:
7.33u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Israel Adesanya
to Win by Decision
+180
ODDS:
+180
BET:
4u
RETURN:
11.2u
BET #2
+ Li Jingliang
to Win
-167
+ Jamall Emmers
to Win
-170
+ Rodolfo Vieira
to Win by Submission
-190
ODDS:
+288
BET:
4u
RETURN:
15.5u
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Li Jingliang
to Win
-167
+ Beneil Dariush
to Win
-162
+ Zhang Weili
to Win
-150
ODDS:
+331
BET:
10u
RETURN:
43.1u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Jamall Emmers
to Win
-170
+ Mark Madsen
to Win
-205
+ Alex Oliveira
to Win
-133
ODDS:
+314
BET:
7u
RETURN:
28.98u
BET #2
+ Alex Oliveira
to Win
-133
+ Israel Adesanya
to Win
-260
+ Jamall Emmers
to Win
-170
ODDS:
+285
BET:
7u
RETURN:
26.97u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Emily Whitmire
to Win
+110
+ Deron Winn
to Win
-135
+ Danaa Batgerel
to Win
-120
ODDS:
+570
BET:
5u
RETURN:
33.51u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Israel Adesanya
to Win by Decision
+180
+ Zhang Weili
to Win
-150
+ Danaa Batgerel
to Win
-120
ODDS:
+756
BET:
5u
RETURN:
42.78u
BET #2
+ Beneil Dariush
to Win
-162
+ Jamall Emmers
to Win
-170
+ Deron Winn
to Win
-135
ODDS:
+347
BET:
6u
RETURN:
26.83u
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
+ Jingliang Li
$8600
+ Deron Winn
$8300
+ Emily Whitmire
$8100
+ Joanna Jedrzejczyk
$7300
+ Rudolfo Vieira
$9300
+ Danaa Batgerel
$8200
Spares
+
+
+
+
Betting Breakdowns
Israel Adesanya -260 vs Yoel Romero +240
Romero is a monster, so betting against him at this type of return isn’t overly enticing.
I like the opening line with Adesanya around -185, but we aren’t there anymore.
Instead, let’s take a look at Adesanya straight up as a mid-level investment and take a look at a possible Prop option
Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
Israel Adesanya to Win by Decision +180
Romero is pretty durable and not always easy to hit.
Adesanya is coming off a brutal knockout of Whittaker, but 1 fight earlier he went the full 25 with Gastelum.
I think the second scenario is more likely. Bet accordingly.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Zhang Weili -150 vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk +175
The line has had minimal movement, but it would appear that Zhang is trending in the right direction.
JJ is a tough out, but unless she can keep Zhang on the outside for the entire fight- she is going to be hardpressed to win this one.
Zhang is more durable, hits harder, and is just as active with the potential to wrestle mixed in.
Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
I have JJ in my lineup out of necessity.
She is super affordable and I don’t have a lot of dogs in my lineup.
If she wins it will most likely be over 5 rounds with a lot of volume 125+ strikes.
Even if she loses she could still produce 5 rounds of volume with a decent return.
Add her.
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Beneil Dariush -162 vs Drakkar Klose +152
I have never been a big fan of Klose, he just isn’t my type of fighter.
Depending on where you look Dariush is anywhere between -155 and -170.
Dariush is no picnic on the mat which takes away a key weapon of Klose.
Klose can be taken down which is big if Dariush gets him there.
I like Beneil on the feet.
Gold Bet.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Li Jingliang -167 vs Neil Magny +157
The line on Li has come down heavily with his original number set around -275 which is big for us.
Magny has been out of action for a while and his style seems to have been figured out.
Li has the skills to create the issues that Magny has struggled with before.
Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Li has proven himself to be a finisher and the durability of Magny is a question mark.
He should be able to add in some volume and maybe a few takedowns making a decision still a point producer.
Add him.
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Max Griffin +125 vs Alex Oliveira -133
The line on Oliveira has moved significantly in our favour.
Opening around -215 we are getting some decent value here now.
Backing a fighter on a 3-fight losing streak has proven beneficial, I will role with that trend.
Silver Play for the other “Cowboy”
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Sean O’Malley -310 vs Jose Quinonez +300
O’Malley has a lot of hype surrounding him and we have seen the UFC do this before.
The layoff is a major concern and Quinonez has shown solid improvement.
This is an easy pass.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Austin Hubbard +195 vs Mark Madsen -205
Madsen is a talented fighter with minimal miles on his body (this is the counter to the concern about age).
The drop in Madsen’s line is crazy, he opened around -700/750 on some sites.
That movement right there is enough to make him a play worth looking into.
For me, he works in the middle of my bet card.
Silver play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Saparbek Safarov +500 vs Rodolfo Vieira -570
This stands to be an entertaining and messy fight.
I can’t bet it straight up, certainly not at this line.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
Rodolfo Vieira to Win by Submission -190
The return isn’t great, but if you want to bet this fight the BJJ ace by sub is probably your best option.
DK Lineup:
Vieira is a finisher and Safarov’s lack of concern for his defense opens him up to getting finished.
Add him.
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Gerald Meerschaert +125 vs Deron Winn -135
A lot of people are backing GM3 here and I get it.
Winn is coming off a pretty dismal showing, but so is Meerschaert
Winn missed weight for his last bout and a tough cut would have been a contributor to a poor performance.
Look for him to put forth a performance that is closer to his debut- counter wrestling and volume.
GM3 is a veteran fighter, but he will also fade and if he can’t take Winn down his best weapon becomes a non-factor.
Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Winn has shown on the regional scene that he can finish and GM3 can be finished.
More importantly, he can put up some big numbers with his volume/ takedowns and they will add up as well.
Add him.
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Polyana Viana -111 vs Emily Whitmire +110
Whitmire missed weight and the majority of the fighters that miss weight win their fight- not all, but the percentages favour Whitmire.
Viana hasn’t impressed me and while she is on a 3 fight losing skid- she really hasn’t shown she can win at this level.
I think Emily is the better fighter overall.
Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Whitmire has shown she can finish and Viana is vulnerable, especially as the fight advances.
At $8100, she is affordable.
Add her.
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Jamall Emmers -170 vs Giga Chikadze +160
Giga looked decent in his debut, but narrowly got a win versus an opponent that he matched up well with.
Emmers’s wrestling is a major concern for a kickboxer that has not fair well on the mat.
Emmers is also capable enough to hold his own on the floor between takedowns.
Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Danaa Batgerel -120 vs Guido Cannetti +115
Cannetti has been out of action for a long time and he is 40-years old (very old for the lighter divisions).
Batgerel is durable enough to survive the early exchanges and out Guido in some tough spots.
Pick the more durable, younger, and overall more skilled fighter.
Bronze Play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
Guido has been finished in all of his pro losses.
Batgerel carries a pretty steady pace and that will test a fighter that doesn’t do well outside of round 1.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
No play here. I think Emmers can finish him, but I want to keep it simple and pick up the win any way we can get it.
2. Danaa Batgerel to Win Inside the Distance +210
Cannetti has been submitted in all 4 of his pro defeats. He tends to fade after round 1 and if Batgerel pushes the pace we expect him to, he should be able to overwhelm him eventually. Play for Batgerel to get the finish.
EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47
24
23
51%
2016 Picks
55
31
24
56%
2017 Picks
47
20
27
43%
2018 Picks
42
25
17
60%
2019 Picks
32
13
19
41%
2020 Picks
23
8
15
35%
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FPO Candidate
1. Sean O’Malley/Jose Quinonez
O’Malley has finishing skills but hasn’t shown them at this level. As much as I would like to take a shot at the Decision prop here it is probably better to avoid this fight with O’Malley returning from such a long layoff. Pass.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.