UFC 247: Jones vs Reyes | Televised Prelim Predictions

UFC 247: Jones vs Reyes | Televised Prelim Predictions
185lbs- Trevin Giles vs James Krause

With less than 24-hours until the fight, Antonio Arroyo has pulled out of his fight and like a badass, James Krause (27-7-0) has stepped up to keep the fight on the card. Krause, a former Lightweight, and current Welterweight is on-site to corner another undercard fighter. He has won 6 in a row including back to back knockout wins.

Krause is 2-inches taller than Giles, but will give up an inch of reach. Some consider Giles, who debuted at LHW, a better fit for 170 pounds.

Against Arroyo, Giles was positioned to win the bout. This is a tough matchup for him.

Krause offers a dangerous submission attack and a pressure-based striking offense that can and will wear him out if executed to its fullest extent.

There is potential that Krause has issues with the short notice, but as a veteran fighter, he will most likely thrive in this scenario.

Look for Krause to be the busier fighter on the feet, back Giles up capitalizing on his passivity. If Giles tries to take him down, Krause will be aggressive and make it work against Trevin.

A stoppage is possible, but my prediction is James Krause to defeat Trevin Giles by decision.

 

185lbs- Antonio Arroyo vs Trevin Giles-Cancelled

A pair of early UFC KOs have given away to back to back defeats for the suddenly faltering Trevin Giles (11-2-0). Giles’ has faced a pair of veteran opponents in his last 2 bouts and while he found degrees of success in both contests, he ultimately faltered and was finished in 3rd round of each contest.

Giles’ Fight IQ is a bit of a question mark. He lacks urgency on the feet and has shown a willingness to engage ground-based opponents on the mat.

Despite a 5-fight winning streak, Antonio Arroyo (9-3-0) was unable to channel his regional success to the UFC and dropped a decision to fellow-Brazilian Andre Muniz.

Arroyo is a proven finisher, stopping his opponent in 8 of 9 wins, split evenly between subs and knockouts. In his defeat, he was unable to stay off the mat and spent the majority of the fight on the defensive.

Giles is fighting at home, but his recent struggles are difficult to overlook. His striking passivity and mistakes on the mat create multiple paths for Arroyo to grab the win. If neither man can grab the finish this fight could be close on the card which favours the Texan. Giles is the more likely to secure a couple of key takedowns which could be big in a close contest. Giles finds a return to form and stays busier in a must-win spot at home- my prediction is Trevin Giles to defeat Antonio Arroyo by decision.

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125lbs- Andrea Lee vs Lauren Murphy

A split decision loss to Joanne Calderwood may have slowed her momentum, but Andrea “KGB” Lee (11-3-0) could return to the title conversation with successful outing on Saturday night. Lee was unable to match the striking output of Calderwood, an area she had used to her advantage in previous fights.

Lee, a multi-faceted fighter has landed takedowns in 3 of her 4 Octagon bouts, and when taken down she has shown the ability to routinely get back to her feet.

Lauren Murphy (11-4-0) is coming off a fight that she was arguably behind in entering the final frame before securing her finisher. She has finished her foe in 2 of her 3 UFC wins with the other ending via split decision.

Carrying a negative striking exchange rate, Murphy has been involved in some close fights. Overall, she is 1-3 in fights where she gives up at least a single takedown. Her lone win came via comeback in her last outing.

Lee is fighting at home in Texas which could be significant against an opponent that traditionally is involved in narrow decisions. If Murphy is unable to defend Lee’s takedowns that will put her in a difficult spot consider she will most likely struggle to match the vertical output of the more active Lee. Murph needs to make this fight ugly, but she won’t be vertical long enough to do so- my prediction is Andrea Lee to defeat Lauren Murphy by decision.

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170lbs- Alex Morono vs Kalinn Williams

A late January injury to Dhiego Lima opened the door for Kalinn “Kaos the Ox Fighter” Williams (9-1-0) to get the call to the big show. Williams turned pro in 2017 and has averaged just over 3 fights per year, including 4 contests in 2019.

He has finished 5 opponents, 4 by knockout. Over his last 5 fights, while he has faced experienced opposition, only 1 fighter currently carries an above .500 record.

Countering Williams will be 8-fight UFC veteran Alex “The Great White” Morono (18-5-0 1NC) who is currently riding a 3-fight winning streak. Last time out, he earned a nod on the scorecards over Max Griffin after nearly getting finished on the feet.

At his best, Morono pushes a strong pace inside the Octagon, doing the majority of his work on the feet.

He comes from a strong grappling background, but the majority of his UFC setbacks have come on the mat when his opponent has found success taking him down.

Williams has some power in his hands and could be the more physically gifted athlete, but that is where his advantages end. Morono has a sizable edge in both quantity and quality of experience, he is also fighting at home and doing so on a full camp. He should find success pushing a pace that “Kaos the Ox Fighter” will struggle to match. Morono’s development as a more well-rounded fighter shows up here- my prediction is Alex Morono to defeat Kalinn Williams by TKO.

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135lbs- Miles Johns vs Mario Bautista

A close victory in his debut maintained his perfect record and Miles “Chapo” Johns (10-0-0) will look to continue his run in the opening fight of the televised prelims.

A talented wrestler, Johns battled his way through some tough spots on the mat, with his foe taking his back on multiple occasions. He landed some decent strikes while in a defensive position and hurt his opponent in the final round to punctuate the victory.

Johns has gone the distance in 5 of his last 6- including a pair of victorious split decisions.

A short notice debut defeat to Bantamweight buzzsaw Corey Sandhahen gave way to a strong sophomore performance for Mario Bautista (7-1-0). Mario is coming off just the 2nd decision win of his career- he finished the first 5 opponents of his pro career inside the 10 minutes.

Bautista won an absolute war with Jin Soo Son, utilizing a strong blend of short-range hooks and slashing elbow strikes. He landed 129 significant strikes while giving up 95.

Son was able to take Bautista down on a couple of occasions, but Bautista does offer a dangerous submission game.

There is some concern that Johns didn’t find much success with his wrestling in his debut, that should change here. Look for Johns to capitalize on the aggressive nature of Bautista countering with level changes and heavy top position. Bautista’s stock is a little high after a strong fight against an overachieving opponent. Johns stock is a little lower than it should be- time to cash in, my prediction is Miles Johns to defeat Mario Bautista by decision.

 

Scott Johnson

scott

Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel's popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.

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