When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Miles Johns
to Win
-125
+ Derrick Lewis
to Win
-224
ODDS:
+160
BET:
8u
RETURN:
20.83u
BET #2
+ Andre Ewell
to Win
-117
+ Juan Adams
to Win
-240
ODDS:
+163
BET:
8u
RETURN:
21.02u
Silver Plays
BET #1
+ Dan Ige
to Win
+120
ODDS:
+120
BET:
6u
RETURN:
13.2u
BET #2
+ James Krause
to Win
-161
+ Andrea Lee
to Win by Decision
-165
ODDS:
+160
BET:
6u
RETURN:
15.62u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Jon Jones
to Win by Decision
+240
+ V. Shevchenko
to Win by Decision
-125
ODDS:
+512
BET:
5u
RETURN:
30.6u
BET #2
+ Austin Lingo
to Win
-186
+ Domingo Pilarte
to Win
-123
ODDS:
+179
BET:
3u
RETURN:
8.36u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ James Krause
to Win by Decision
+250
ODDS:
+250
BET:
4u
RETURN:
14u
BET #2
+ Derrick Lewis
to Win by TKO/KO
-130
+ Andrea Lee
to Win by Decision
-165
ODDS:
+184
BET:
5u
RETURN:
14.21u
BET #3
+ Miles Johns
to Win
-125
+ Andre Ewell
to Win
-117
+ Dan Ige
to Win
+120
ODDS:
+634
BET:
5u
RETURN:
36.72u
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
BET #1
+ Miles Johns
to Win
-125
+ Derrick Lewis
to Win
-224
+ Andre Ewell
to Win
-117
ODDS:
+383
BET:
10u
RETURN:
48.29u
BET #2
+ Andre Ewell
to Win
-117
+ Juan Adams
to Win
-240
+ Miles Johns
to Win
-125
ODDS:
+373
BET:
10u
RETURN:
47.29u
Silver Plays
BET #2
+ James Krause
to Win
-161
+ Dan Ige
to Win
+120
+ Andrea Lee
to Win by Decision
-165
ODDS:
+473
BET:
8u
RETURN:
45.82u
Bronze Plays
BET #1
+ Jon Jones
to Win by Decision
+240
+ V. Shevchenko
to Win by Decision
-125
+ Miles Johns
to Win
-125
ODDS:
+1002
BET:
5u
RETURN:
55.08u
BET #2
+ Austin Lingo
to Win
-186
+ Domingo Pilarte
to Win
-123
+ Andre Ewell
to Win
-117
ODDS:
+417
BET:
4u
RETURN:
20.68u
Wildcard Plays
BET #1
+ Jon Jones
to Win by Decision
+240
+ Dan Ige
to Win
+120
+ Derrick Lewis
to Win by TKO/KO
-130
ODDS:
+1223
BET:
5u
RETURN:
66.17u
BET #2
+ Derrick Lewis
to Win by TKO/KO
-130
+ Andrea Lee
to Win by Decision
-165
+ James Krause
to Win by Decision
+250
ODDS:
+895
BET:
5u
RETURN:
49.73u
BET #3
+ Miles Johns
to Win
-125
+ Andre Ewell
to Win
-117
+ Dan Ige
to Win
+120
ODDS:
+489
BET:
7u
RETURN:
41.26u
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
+ Dan Ige
$7900
+ Derrick Lewis
$9000
+ Andre Ewell
$8400
+ Domingo Pilarte
$8200
+ Juan Adams
$8800
+ Youssef Zalal
$7300
Spares
+
+
+
+
Betting Breakdowns
Jon Jones -410 vs Dominick Reyes +375
At some point, Jon Jones is going to lose. Is it here? Possibly. He has looked less dominant at times and that has a lot of people leaning on Reyes as the end of times for Bones.
The line is obviously is not worth a bet here SU, so this is an easy pass for me.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
Jon Jones to Win by Decision +240
Jones has gone the distance in 6 of his last 8 fights, finishing Gus and DC (NC) in the other 2.
He will most likely recognize that Reyes has limited long fight experience and build a gameplan around forcing him into unfamiliar territory in rounds 4 and 5- this increases the potential for a decision win.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Valentina Shevchenko -810 vs Katlyn Chookagian +850
Chookagian has won multiple fights that were stacked against her. Nothing this significant, but enough to avoid a pointless bet on a line this wide.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
Valentina Shevchenko to Win by Decision -125
Similar to the main event, I feel the best bet here is the decision prop.
Chook is tough and while she might not put up enough offense, her defense (a product of her movement) makes her hard to finish.
Shev could take her down which could lead to a finish or a greater expense of time.
Valentina has gone the distance in 2 of her last 3 fights, I like this one to do the same.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Juan Adams -240 vs Justin Tafa +216
With HWs there is always a concern that one punch will change the entire complexion of a fight. No matter how you cap it a defensive lapse can toss everything on its head. That could be the case here.
Adams has the edge in experience and his skill set (wrestling) should be able to nullify Tafa’s (kickboxing). Size is key when fighters are engaged in grappling/ wrestling.
I like Tafa to grind him out and eventually finish him.
Gold Play for Adams.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
At HW, a finish is always possible. Even if Adams can’t stop him, he should be able land multiple takedowns and ground strikes.
Add him to your lineup.
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Mirsad Bektic -130 vs Dan Ige +120
Ige opened as a slight favourite around the -135 range, so the value factor here is def in our favour.
I am simply not impressed with how Bektic has handled his step up in competition and Ige has looked good in a couple of demanding fights.
I expect that Ige can take Bektic’s wrestling out of the equation and force a striking battle whereMirsad isn’t nearly as strong.
Close fight, but I like Ige as a top Silver Bet.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
At $7900, Ige is my only real dog pick on the card. Bektic has been finished twice by knockout and Ige has enough power to get him out of there on the feet. He is also a ground threat, especially if Mirsad gets sloppy and/or tired.
Add him.
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Ilir Latifi +220 vs Derrick Lewis -224
I gave Latifi a long look, but I think fighting at HW at his level is all sorts of wrong. He has had issues with fighting his range against longer opponents and he doesn’t hold up well against big power.
Lewis hits hard and is not easy to take down. He is even harder to keep down.
Unless Latifi steps into a big shot and gets him out of there, the power/ physicality of Lewis will be too much more him.
Gold Play for the Black Beast.
Prop Bet:
Derrick Lewis to Win by TKO/KO -130
18 of Lewis’s 22 wins have come by knockout and Latifi has been knocked out in 4 of his 7 losses.
Lewis feasts on fighters that fade.
It is not plus money, but this is a solid return based on those numbers.
DK Lineup:
Oddly enough, Lewis isn’t a massive point producer- he has scored sub 80 points in victory on multiple occasions.
That being said, I think he gets the finish here and does it relatively early.
Add him.
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James Krause -161 vs Trevin Giles +124
I like Krause here. He is a veteran fighter that will create similar issues for Giles that Cummings and GM3 did. He also trains with Cummings so he will have some insight into what Giles brings to the table.
Look for Krause to be busier everywhere this fight goes with Giles struggling to adapt to a new opponent.
With the late notice, I won’t put Krause in my Gold plays, instead, I will replace Giles in all my Silver plays.
Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
James Krause by Decision +250
This falls under the Betting Scenario section’s FPO, but I will post it here.
Krause has finished back to back opponents, but prior to that he went to the cards in 5 of 6.
Giles is a larger man which could make it difficult for Krause to get him out of there and he may not want to overextend himself too early
I like Krause on the cards.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
Antonio Arroyo +123 vs Trevin Giles -133-Cancelled
Let’s be clear, Giles made me angry with his last 2 performances- both winnable fights that he let get away from him.
That being said, he was facing a couple of solid veterans who will beat almost anyone if given a slight opening.
Giles was close to -200 at the open and I think the public looked at his b2b losses by finish and fade him down- that is good for us.
Arroyo looked decent in his debut, but not amazing against an opponent who took an expected approach to victory.
Giles is at home fighting out of desperation.
I like Giles to be the busier fighter in a spot where is stock is at an all-time low.
Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Andrea Lee -345 vs Lauren Murphy +314
Lee is coming off a fight where she needed to do just a little more and I think that shows up here.
Her success rate when landing takedowns (and her frequency of lading TDs) coupled with Murphy’s TDD issue is a major plus for Lee.
Lee is also fighting at home and Murphy is usually involved in close fights- that favours Lee as well
I won’t be playing this fight straight up, but a Prop bet will most likely be the direction here.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
Andrea Lee to Win by Decision -165
Murphy is a tough out which should result in this fight going the distance.
Lee has gone the distance in 4 straight and 5 of 6.
Murph was 3 in a row and 5 of 6 prior to her late finish against Borella.
I like Lee to do more and this prop bet probably shows up somewhere in my Silver plays.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Alex Morono -300 vs Kalinn Williams +274
I like Morono here, but I can’t make a play here at this price with so much unknown about Williams.
No Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Miles Johns -125 vs Mario Bautista +113
Johns won his debut, but didn’t look great. Bautista is coming off of a win over a fighter that had a good debut, raised his stock, and then looked mediocre against Bautista.
Based on this scenario, Johns’s stock is down, Bautista’s inflated a bit- we need to cash in.
Johns’s wrestling should be the key here, but he can also do damage against a defensively vulnerable opponent.
Johns opened around -245 so we are getting a lot of value based on that movement.
Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
No Play
DK Lineup:
No Play.
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Journey Newson +115 vs Domingo Pilarte -123
Neither fighter looked great in their debut.
I like Pilarte’s length advantage and that he is fighting at home.
Newson has some pop, but I don’t think he will be able to find his way into range enough to make it count.
Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
No Play.
DK Lineup:
Fights like this one often end in a finish and I could see Pilarte getting a stoppage win. He isn’t my favourite Fantasy pick, but I am limited on this card.
Add him.
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Andre Ewell -117 vs Jonathan Martinez +105
On the feet, Ewell has looked good. Martinez will most likely need to take him down with regularity.
When a fighter has to drastically deviate from their normal approach in order to win a fight- I am not a fan.
Ewell’s reach and superior variety will be the keys here.
His drop from -190 to his current line is also encouraging.
Gold play for Mr. Highlight.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
Ewell is a high percentage finisher with an affordable price tag.
He is also fighting a card spot that is prone to finishes.
Add him.
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Austin Lingo -186 vs Youssef Zalal +175
This is a bout where we don’t know a lot about either man- at least when it comes to fighting at this level.
Lingo is the local fighter and was a massive favourite until the line started to move.
This is an easy No Play or at the most Bronze inclusion.
Prop Bet:
See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
I order to make my lineup fit the budget, I had to use a counter bet and Zalal is my choice.
He has finished all of his wins and considering the opening fight of the night often ends early I will roll with him.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
I will stick with the SU win any way we can get it. Pass.
2. Austin Lingo to Win Inside the Distance +150
Lingo has finished his last 3 opponents in very quick fashion. That can dry up at the UFC level, but he appears to be facing an opponent of similar caliber to his regional competition. Lingo will be motivated to get it done at home. Add him.
EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
12
16
23
7 of 22 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47
24
23
51%
2016 Picks
55
31
24
56%
2017 Picks
47
20
27
43%
2018 Picks
42
25
17
60%
2019 Picks
32
13
19
41%
2020 Picks
23
8
15
35%
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FPO Candidate
1. Trevin Giles to Win by Decision +250
Giles can finish, but he has struggled to do so as of late. This is a good spot for him, similar to Bevon Lewis last weekend. The UFC wants to see Giles (at home) do well and this is a solid matchup in a good spot on the card. Giles will narrowly outwork Arroyo and even if its close he still gets the nod at home. FPO improves to 3-0 on the year.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel's popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.
C. Daniel Cormier
#1 Jon Jones
