Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack
Parlays & Single Bets
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extent and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involve a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
Betting Units
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.
Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Miles Johns |
to Win |
-125 |
 |
| + Derrick Lewis |
to Win |
-224 |
 |
|
|
ODDS: |
+160 |
|
|
BET: |
8u |
|
|
RETURN: |
20.83u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Andre Ewell |
to Win |
-117 |
|
| + Juan Adams |
to Win |
-240 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+163 |
|
|
BET: |
8u |
|
|
RETURN: |
21.02u |
Silver Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Dan Ige |
to Win |
+120 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+120 |
|
|
BET: |
6u |
|
|
RETURN: |
13.2u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + James Krause |
to Win |
-161 |
|
| + Andrea Lee |
to Win by Decision |
-165 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+160 |
|
|
BET: |
6u |
|
|
RETURN: |
15.62u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Jon Jones |
to Win by Decision |
+240 |
|
+ V. Shevchenko
|
to Win by Decision |
-125 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+512 |
|
|
BET: |
5u |
|
|
RETURN: |
30.6u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Austin Lingo |
to Win |
-186 |
|
| + Domingo Pilarte |
to Win |
-123 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+179 |
|
|
BET: |
3u |
|
|
RETURN: |
8.36u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
+ James Krause
|
to Win by Decision |
+250 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+250 |
|
|
BET: |
4u |
|
|
RETURN: |
14u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Derrick Lewis |
to Win by TKO/KO |
-130 |
|
| + Andrea Lee |
to Win by Decision |
-165 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+184 |
|
|
BET: |
5u |
|
|
RETURN: |
14.21u |
| BET #3 |
|
|
|
| + Miles Johns |
to Win |
-125 |
|
| + Andre Ewell |
to Win |
-117 |
|
| + Dan Ige |
to Win |
+120 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+634 |
|
|
BET: |
5u |
|
|
RETURN: |
36.72u |
Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)
Gold Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Miles Johns |
to Win |
-125 |
|
| + Derrick Lewis |
to Win |
-224 |
|
| + Andre Ewell |
to Win |
-117 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+383 |
|
|
BET: |
10u |
|
|
RETURN: |
48.29u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Andre Ewell |
to Win |
-117 |
|
| + Juan Adams |
to Win |
-240 |
|
| + Miles Johns |
to Win |
-125 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+373 |
|
|
BET: |
10u |
|
|
RETURN: |
47.29u |
Silver Plays
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + James Krause |
to Win |
-161 |
|
| + Dan Ige |
to Win |
+120 |
|
| + Andrea Lee |
to Win by Decision |
-165 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+473 |
|
|
BET: |
8u |
|
|
RETURN: |
45.82u |
Bronze Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Jon Jones |
to Win by Decision |
+240 |
|
+ V. Shevchenko
|
to Win by Decision |
-125 |
|
| + Miles Johns |
to Win |
-125 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+1002 |
|
|
BET: |
5u |
|
|
RETURN: |
55.08u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Austin Lingo |
to Win |
-186 |
|
| + Domingo Pilarte |
to Win |
-123 |
|
| + Andre Ewell |
to Win |
-117 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+417 |
|
|
BET: |
4u |
|
|
RETURN: |
20.68u |
Wildcard Plays
| BET #1 |
|
|
|
| + Jon Jones |
to Win by Decision |
+240 |
|
| + Dan Ige |
to Win |
+120 |
|
| + Derrick Lewis |
to Win by TKO/KO |
-130 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+1223 |
|
|
BET: |
5u |
|
|
RETURN: |
66.17u |
| BET #2 |
|
|
|
| + Derrick Lewis |
to Win by TKO/KO |
-130 |
|
| + Andrea Lee |
to Win by Decision |
-165 |
|
| + James Krause |
to Win by Decision |
+250 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+895 |
|
|
BET: |
5u |
|
|
RETURN: |
49.73u |
| BET #3 |
|
|
|
| + Miles Johns |
to Win |
-125 |
|
| + Andre Ewell |
to Win |
-117 |
|
| + Dan Ige |
to Win |
+120 |
|
|
|
ODDS: |
+489 |
|
|
BET: |
7u |
|
|
RETURN: |
41.26u |
Draftkings Lineup
Lineup
| + Dan Ige |
$7900 |
|
| + Derrick Lewis |
$9000 |
|
| + Andre Ewell |
$8400 |
|
| + Domingo Pilarte |
$8200 |
|
| + Juan Adams |
$8800 |
|
| + Youssef Zalal |
$7300 |
|
Spares
Betting Breakdowns
Jon Jones -410 vs Dominick Reyes +375
- At some point, Jon Jones is going to lose. Is it here? Possibly. He has looked less dominant at times and that has a lot of people leaning on Reyes as the end of times for Bones.
- The line is obviously is not worth a bet here SU, so this is an easy pass for me.
- No Play.
Prop Bet:
- Jon Jones to Win by Decision +240
- Jones has gone the distance in 6 of his last 8 fights, finishing Gus and DC (NC) in the other 2.
- He will most likely recognize that Reyes has limited long fight experience and build a gameplan around forcing him into unfamiliar territory in rounds 4 and 5- this increases the potential for a decision win.
DK Lineup:
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Valentina Shevchenko -810 vs Katlyn Chookagian +850
- Chookagian has won multiple fights that were stacked against her. Nothing this significant, but enough to avoid a pointless bet on a line this wide.
- No Play.
Prop Bet:
- Valentina Shevchenko to Win by Decision -125
- Similar to the main event, I feel the best bet here is the decision prop.
- Chook is tough and while she might not put up enough offense, her defense (a product of her movement) makes her hard to finish.
- Shev could take her down which could lead to a finish or a greater expense of time.
- Valentina has gone the distance in 2 of her last 3 fights, I like this one to do the same.
DK Lineup:
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Juan Adams -240 vs Justin Tafa +216
- With HWs there is always a concern that one punch will change the entire complexion of a fight. No matter how you cap it a defensive lapse can toss everything on its head. That could be the case here.
- Adams has the edge in experience and his skill set (wrestling) should be able to nullify Tafa’s (kickboxing). Size is key when fighters are engaged in grappling/ wrestling.
- I like Tafa to grind him out and eventually finish him.
- Gold Play for Adams.
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
- At HW, a finish is always possible. Even if Adams can’t stop him, he should be able land multiple takedowns and ground strikes.
- Add him to your lineup.
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Mirsad Bektic -130 vs Dan Ige +120
- Ige opened as a slight favourite around the -135 range, so the value factor here is def in our favour.
- I am simply not impressed with how Bektic has handled his step up in competition and Ige has looked good in a couple of demanding fights.
- I expect that Ige can take Bektic’s wrestling out of the equation and force a striking battle whereMirsad isn’t nearly as strong.
- Close fight, but I like Ige as a top Silver Bet.
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
- At $7900, Ige is my only real dog pick on the card. Bektic has been finished twice by knockout and Ige has enough power to get him out of there on the feet. He is also a ground threat, especially if Mirsad gets sloppy and/or tired.
- Add him.
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Ilir Latifi +220 vs Derrick Lewis -224
- I gave Latifi a long look, but I think fighting at HW at his level is all sorts of wrong. He has had issues with fighting his range against longer opponents and he doesn’t hold up well against big power.
- Lewis hits hard and is not easy to take down. He is even harder to keep down.
- Unless Latifi steps into a big shot and gets him out of there, the power/ physicality of Lewis will be too much more him.
- Gold Play for the Black Beast.
Prop Bet:
- Derrick Lewis to Win by TKO/KO -130
- 18 of Lewis’s 22 wins have come by knockout and Latifi has been knocked out in 4 of his 7 losses.
- Lewis feasts on fighters that fade.
- It is not plus money, but this is a solid return based on those numbers.
DK Lineup:
- Oddly enough, Lewis isn’t a massive point producer- he has scored sub 80 points in victory on multiple occasions.
- That being said, I think he gets the finish here and does it relatively early.
- Add him.
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James Krause -161 vs Trevin Giles +124
- I like Krause here. He is a veteran fighter that will create similar issues for Giles that Cummings and GM3 did. He also trains with Cummings so he will have some insight into what Giles brings to the table.
- Look for Krause to be busier everywhere this fight goes with Giles struggling to adapt to a new opponent.
- With the late notice, I won’t put Krause in my Gold plays, instead, I will replace Giles in all my Silver plays.
- Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
- James Krause by Decision +250
- This falls under the Betting Scenario section’s FPO, but I will post it here.
- Krause has finished back to back opponents, but prior to that he went to the cards in 5 of 6.
- Giles is a larger man which could make it difficult for Krause to get him out of there and he may not want to overextend himself too early
- I like Krause on the cards.
DK Lineup:
Antonio Arroyo +123 vs Trevin Giles -133-Cancelled
- Let’s be clear, Giles made me angry with his last 2 performances- both winnable fights that he let get away from him.
- That being said, he was facing a couple of solid veterans who will beat almost anyone if given a slight opening.
- Giles was close to -200 at the open and I think the public looked at his b2b losses by finish and fade him down- that is good for us.
- Arroyo looked decent in his debut, but not amazing against an opponent who took an expected approach to victory.
- Giles is at home fighting out of desperation.
- I like Giles to be the busier fighter in a spot where is stock is at an all-time low.
- Silver Play.
Prop Bet:
- See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
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Andrea Lee -345 vs Lauren Murphy +314
- Lee is coming off a fight where she needed to do just a little more and I think that shows up here.
- Her success rate when landing takedowns (and her frequency of lading TDs) coupled with Murphy’s TDD issue is a major plus for Lee.
- Lee is also fighting at home and Murphy is usually involved in close fights- that favours Lee as well
- I won’t be playing this fight straight up, but a Prop bet will most likely be the direction here.
- No Play.
Prop Bet:
- Andrea Lee to Win by Decision -165
- Murphy is a tough out which should result in this fight going the distance.
- Lee has gone the distance in 4 straight and 5 of 6.
- Murph was 3 in a row and 5 of 6 prior to her late finish against Borella.
- I like Lee to do more and this prop bet probably shows up somewhere in my Silver plays.
DK Lineup:
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Alex Morono -300 vs Kalinn Williams +274
- I like Morono here, but I can’t make a play here at this price with so much unknown about Williams.
- No Play.
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
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Miles Johns -125 vs Mario Bautista +113
- Johns won his debut, but didn’t look great. Bautista is coming off of a win over a fighter that had a good debut, raised his stock, and then looked mediocre against Bautista.
- Based on this scenario, Johns’s stock is down, Bautista’s inflated a bit- we need to cash in.
- Johns’s wrestling should be the key here, but he can also do damage against a defensively vulnerable opponent.
- Johns opened around -245 so we are getting a lot of value based on that movement.
- Gold Play.
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
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Journey Newson +115 vs Domingo Pilarte -123
- Neither fighter looked great in their debut.
- I like Pilarte’s length advantage and that he is fighting at home.
- Newson has some pop, but I don’t think he will be able to find his way into range enough to make it count.
- Bronze play.
Prop Bet:
DK Lineup:
- Fights like this one often end in a finish and I could see Pilarte getting a stoppage win. He isn’t my favourite Fantasy pick, but I am limited on this card.
- Add him.
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Andre Ewell -117 vs Jonathan Martinez +105
- On the feet, Ewell has looked good. Martinez will most likely need to take him down with regularity.
- When a fighter has to drastically deviate from their normal approach in order to win a fight- I am not a fan.
- Ewell’s reach and superior variety will be the keys here.
- His drop from -190 to his current line is also encouraging.
- Gold play for Mr. Highlight.
Prop Bet:
- See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
- Ewell is a high percentage finisher with an affordable price tag.
- He is also fighting a card spot that is prone to finishes.
- Add him.
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Austin Lingo -186 vs Youssef Zalal +175
- This is a bout where we don’t know a lot about either man- at least when it comes to fighting at this level.
- Lingo is the local fighter and was a massive favourite until the line started to move.
- This is an easy No Play or at the most Bronze inclusion.
Prop Bet:
- See the Betting Scenario Section.
DK Lineup:
- I order to make my lineup fit the budget, I had to use a counter bet and Zalal is my choice.
- He has finished all of his wins and considering the opening fight of the night often ends early I will roll with him.
- Add Zalal.
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Confidence List
1. Valentina Shevchenko -867
2. Derrick Lewis -224
3. Jon Jones -410
4. Andrea Lee -345
5. Miles Johns -125
====================
6. Alex Morono -300
7. Dan Ige +120
8. Andre Ewell -117
9. Juan Adams -240
10. James Krause -161
11. Domingo Pilarte -123
12. Austin Lingo -186
13.
Value Bet List
1. Dan Ige +120
2. Miles Johns -125
3. Andre Ewell -117
4. James Krause -161
5. Domingo Pilarte -123
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Counter Bets
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight-up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Betting Scenario
Scenario Breakdowns
The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.
| UFC 190: Rousey vs. Correia |
Test Run
[Fight_1]Test Run[/Fight_1] |
UFC on FOX 16: Dillashaw vs Barao 2
| July 25th 2015 | Chicago, Illinois, USA |
| Main Card |
| T.J. DILLASHAW | vs. | RENAN BARAO | | | |
| MIESHA TATE | vs. | JESSICA EYE | | | |
| EDSON BARBOZA | vs. | PAUL FELDER | | | |
| TAKANORI GOMI | vs. | JOE LAUZON | | | |
| Preliminary Card |
| TOM LAWLOR | vs. | GIAN VILLANTE | JAMES KRAUSE | vs. | DARON CRUICKSHANK |
| JIM MILLER | vs. | DANNY CASTILLO | ANDREW HOLBROOK | vs. | RAMSEY NIJEM |
| KENNY ROBERTSON | vs. | BEN SAUNDERS | JESSAMYN DUKE | vs. | ELIZABETH PHILLIPS |
| EDDIE WINELAND | vs. | BRYAN CARAWAY | ZAK CUMMINGS | vs. | DOMINIQUE STEELE |
| UFC 214: Cormier vs Jones 2 |
 C. Daniel Cormier |  | CTRY. | |  #1 Jon Jones |
| 19-1 | REC | 22-1 |
| 4W | STREAK | 13W |
| +230 | ODDS | -245 |
| 205 | WEIGHT | 205 |
| 5'11" | HEIGHT | 6'4" |
| 72.5" | REACH | 84.5" |
| 38 | AGE | 30 |
COUNTDOWN TO UFC 214
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EPU Candidate(s)
1. Andre Ewell -117 vs Jonathan Martinez +105
I will stick with the SU win any way we can get it. Pass.
2. Austin Lingo to Win Inside the Distance +150
Lingo has finished his last 3 opponents in very quick fashion. That can dry up at the UFC level, but he appears to be facing an opponent of similar caliber to his regional competition. Lingo will be motivated to get it done at home. Add him.
| EPU | Under 1.5 | Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Over x2 |
| 2014 | 42 | 46 | 46 | 11 of 46 Events |
| 2015 | 28 | 35 | 42 | 10 of 39 Events |
| 2016 | 28 | 38 | 41 | 11 of 41 Events |
| 2017 | 27 | 40 | 35 | 8 of 38 Events |
| 2018 | 26 | 35 | 30 | 8 of 33 Events |
| 2019 | 18 | 27 | 49 | 15 of 39 Events |
| 2020 | 12 | 16 | 23 | 7 of 22 Events |
| FP | W | L | Win % |
| 2015 Picks | 47 | 24 | 23 | 51% |
| 2016 Picks | 55 | 31 | 24 | 56% |
| 2017 Picks | 47 | 20 | 27 | 43% |
| 2018 Picks | 42 | 25 | 17 | 60% |
| 2019 Picks | 32 | 13 | 19 | 41% |
| 2020 Picks | 23 | 8 | 15 | 35% |
| | | | |
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FPO Candidate
1. Trevin Giles to Win by Decision +250
Giles can finish, but he has struggled to do so as of late. This is a good spot for him, similar to Bevon Lewis last weekend. The UFC wants to see Giles (at home) do well and this is a solid matchup in a good spot on the card. Giles will narrowly outwork Arroyo and even if its close he still gets the nod at home. FPO improves to 3-0 on the year.
| Final Prelim | FP | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Over % |
| 2014 | 46 | 30 | 16 | 65% |
| 2015 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 44% |
| 2016 | 39 | 26 | 13 | 67% |
| 2017 | 34 | 25 | 9 | 74% |
| 2018 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 67% |
| 2019 | 38 | 23 | 15 | 61% |
| 2020 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 58% |
| FP | W | L | Win % |
| 2015 Picks | 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% |
| 2016 Picks | 35 | 17 | 18 | 49% |
| 2017 Picks | 29 | 12 | 17 | 41% |
| 2018 Picks | 31 | 13 | 18 | 42% |
| 2019 Picks | 30 | 9 | 21 | 30% |
| 2020 Picks | 10 | 4 | 6 | 40% |
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HEF Candidate(s)
1. Mirsad Bektic -130 vs Dan Ige +120
2. James Krause -161 vs Trevin Giles +124
3. Miles Johns -125 vs Mario Bautista +113
4. Journey Newson +115 vs Domingo Pilarte -123
5. Andre Ewell -117 vs Jonathan Martinez +105
| HEFs | FP | W | L | WIN % |
| 2015 | 177 | 93 | 84 | 53% |
| 2016 | 212 | 106 | 106 | 50% |
| 2017 | 179 | 110 | 69 | 61% |
| 2018 | 192 | 100 | 92 | 52% |
| 2019 | 217 | 100 | 117 | 46% |
| 2020 | 102 | 52 | 50 | 51% |
| FP | W | L | Win % |
| 2015 Picks | 181 | 97 | 84 | 54% |
| 2016 Picks | 212 | 108 | 104 | 51% |
| 2017 Picks | 179 | 87 | 92 | 49% |
| 2018 Picks | 192 | 95 | 97 | 49% |
| 2019 Picks | 211 | 110 | 101 | 52% |
| 2020 Picks | 102 | 46 | 56 | 45% |
Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel’s popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.
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