UFC 247: Jones vs Reyes | Bet Pack Review

UFC 247: Jones vs Reyes | Bet Pack Review

Kamikaze Overdrive Premium Bet Pack

Parlays & Single Bets

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Hardcore Betting Cluster which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Casual Betting Cluster is for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

Hardcore Betting Cluster (HBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Miles Johns  to Win -125
+ Derrick Lewis  to Win -224
ODDS: +160
BET: 8u
RETURN: 20.83u

 

BET #2
+ Andre Ewell  to Win -117
+ Juan Adams  to Win -240
ODDS: +163
BET: 8u
RETURN: 21.02u

Silver Plays

BET #1
+ Dan Ige  to Win +120
ODDS: +120
BET: 6u
RETURN: 13.2u

 

BET #2
+ James Krause  to Win -161
+ Andrea Lee  to Win by Decision -165
ODDS: +160
BET: 6u
RETURN: 15.62u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Jon Jones  to Win by Decision +240
+ V. Shevchenko 
to Win by Decisio -125
ODDS: +512
BET: 5u
RETURN: 30.6u

 

BET #2
+ Austin Lingo  to Win -186
+ Domingo Pilarte to Win -123
ODDS: +179
BET: 3u
RETURN: 8.36u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ James Krause
 to Win by Decision +250
ODDS: +250
BET: 4u
RETURN: 14u

 

BET #2
+ Derrick Lewis  to Win by TKO/KO -130
+ Andrea Lee  to Win by Decision -165
ODDS: +184
BET: 5u
RETURN: 14.21u

 

BET #3
+ Miles Johns  to Win -125
+ Andre Ewell  to Win -117
+ Dan Ige  to Win +120
ODDS: +634
BET: 5u
RETURN: 36.72u

Casual Betting Cluster (CBC)

Gold Plays

BET #1
+ Miles Johns  to Win -125
+ Derrick Lewis  to Win -224
+ Andre Ewell  to Win -117
ODDS: +383
BET: 10u
RETURN: 48.29u

 

BET #2
+ Andre Ewell  to Win -117
+ Juan Adams  to Win -240
+ Miles Johns  to Win -125
ODDS: +373
BET: 10u
RETURN: 47.29u

Silver Plays

BET #2
+ James Krause  to Win -161
+ Dan Ige  to Win +120
+ Andrea Lee  to Win by Decision -165
ODDS: +473
BET: 8u
RETURN: 45.82u

Bronze Plays

BET #1
+ Jon Jones  to Win by Decision +240
+ V. Shevchenko 
to Win by Decisio -125
+ Miles Johns  to Win -125
ODDS: +1002
BET: 5u
RETURN: 55.08u

 

BET #2
+ Austin Lingo  to Win -186
+ Domingo Pilarte to Win -123
+ Andre Ewell  to Win -117
ODDS: +417
BET: 4u
RETURN: 20.68u

Wildcard Plays

BET #1
+ Jon Jones  to Win by Decision +240
+ Dan Ige  to Win +120
+ Derrick Lewis  to Win by TKO/KO -130
ODDS: +1223
BET: 5u
RETURN: 66.17u

 

BET #2
+ Derrick Lewis  to Win by TKO/KO -130
+ Andrea Lee  to Win by Decision -165
+ James Krause to Win by Decision +250
ODDS: +895
BET: 5u
RETURN: 49.73u

 

BET #3
+ Miles Johns  to Win -125
+ Andre Ewell  to Win -117
+ Dan Ige  to Win +120
ODDS: +489
BET: 7u
RETURN: 41.26u

 

Draftkings Lineup

Lineup

+ Dan Ige $7900
+ Derrick Lewis $9000
+ Andre Ewell $8400
+ Domingo Pilarte  $8200
+ Juan Adams $8800
+ Youssef Zalal $7300

Spares

+
+
+

 

Betting Breakdowns

Jon Jones -410 vs Dominick Reyes +375

  • At some point, Jon Jones is going to lose. Is it here? Possibly. He has looked less dominant at times and that has a lot of people leaning on Reyes as the end of times for Bones.
  • The line is obviously is not worth a bet here SU, so this is an easy pass for me.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Jon Jones to Win by Decision +240
  • Jones has gone the distance in 6 of his last 8 fights, finishing Gus and DC (NC) in the other 2.
  • He will most likely recognize that Reyes has limited long fight experience and build a gameplan around forcing him into unfamiliar territory in rounds 4 and 5- this increases the potential for a decision win.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Valentina Shevchenko -810 vs Katlyn Chookagian +850

  • Chookagian has won multiple fights that were stacked against her. Nothing this significant, but enough to avoid a pointless bet on a line this wide.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Valentina Shevchenko to Win by Decision -125
  • Similar to the main event, I feel the best bet here is the decision prop.
  • Chook is tough and while she might not put up enough offense, her defense (a product of her movement) makes her hard to finish.
  • Shev could take her down which could lead to a finish or a greater expense of time.
  • Valentina has gone the distance in 2 of her last 3 fights, I like this one to do the same.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Juan Adams -240 vs Justin Tafa +216

  • With HWs there is always a concern that one punch will change the entire complexion of a fight. No matter how you cap it a defensive lapse can toss everything on its head. That could be the case here.
  • Adams has the edge in experience and his skill set (wrestling) should be able to nullify Tafa’s (kickboxing). Size is key when fighters are engaged in grappling/ wrestling.
  • I like Tafa to grind him out and eventually finish him.
  • Gold Play for Adams.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • At HW, a finish is always possible. Even if Adams can’t stop him, he should be able land multiple takedowns and ground strikes.
  • Add him to your lineup.

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Mirsad Bektic -130 vs Dan Ige +120

  • Ige opened as a slight favourite around the -135 range, so the value factor here is def in our favour.
  • I am simply not impressed with how Bektic has handled his step up in competition and Ige has looked good in a couple of demanding fights.
  • I expect that Ige can take Bektic’s wrestling out of the equation and force a striking battle whereMirsad isn’t nearly as strong.
  • Close fight, but I like Ige as a top Silver Bet.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • At $7900, Ige is my only real dog pick on the card. Bektic has been finished twice by knockout and Ige has enough power to get him out of there on the feet. He is also a ground threat, especially if Mirsad gets sloppy and/or tired.
  • Add him.

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Ilir Latifi +220 vs Derrick Lewis -224

  • I gave Latifi a long look, but I think fighting at HW at his level is all sorts of wrong. He has had issues with fighting his range against longer opponents and he doesn’t hold up well against big power.
  • Lewis hits hard and is not easy to take down. He is even harder to keep down.
  • Unless Latifi steps into a big shot and gets him out of there, the power/ physicality of Lewis will be too much more him.
  • Gold Play for the Black Beast.

Prop Bet:

  • Derrick Lewis to Win by TKO/KO -130
  • 18 of Lewis’s 22 wins have come by knockout and Latifi has been knocked out in 4 of his 7 losses.
  • Lewis feasts on fighters that fade.
  • It is not plus money, but this is a solid return based on those numbers.

DK Lineup:

  • Oddly enough, Lewis isn’t a massive point producer- he has scored sub 80 points in victory on multiple occasions.
  • That being said, I think he gets the finish here and does it relatively early.
  • Add him.

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James Krause -161 vs Trevin Giles +124

  • I like Krause here. He is a veteran fighter that will create similar issues for Giles that Cummings and GM3 did. He also trains with Cummings so he will have some insight into what Giles brings to the table.
  • Look for Krause to be busier everywhere this fight goes with Giles struggling to adapt to a new opponent.
  • With the late notice, I won’t put Krause in my Gold plays, instead, I will replace Giles in all my Silver plays.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • James Krause by Decision +250
  • This falls under the Betting Scenario section’s FPO, but I will post it here.
  • Krause has finished back to back opponents, but prior to that he went to the cards in 5 of 6.
  • Giles is a larger man which could make it difficult for Krause to get him out of there and he may not want to overextend himself too early
  • I like Krause on the cards.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

 

Antonio Arroyo +123 vs Trevin Giles -133-Cancelled

  • Let’s be clear, Giles made me angry with his last 2 performances- both winnable fights that he let get away from him.
  • That being said, he was facing a couple of solid veterans who will beat almost anyone if given a slight opening.
  • Giles was close to -200 at the open and I think the public looked at his b2b losses by finish and fade him down- that is good for us.
  • Arroyo looked decent in his debut, but not amazing against an opponent who took an expected approach to victory.
  • Giles is at home fighting out of desperation.
  • I like Giles to be the busier fighter in a spot where is stock is at an all-time low.
  • Silver Play.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Andrea Lee -345 vs Lauren Murphy +314

  • Lee is coming off a fight where she needed to do just a little more and I think that shows up here.
  • Her success rate when landing takedowns (and her frequency of lading TDs) coupled with Murphy’s TDD issue is a major plus for Lee.
  • Lee is also fighting at home and Murphy is usually involved in close fights- that favours Lee as well
  • I won’t be playing this fight straight up, but a Prop bet will most likely be the direction here.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • Andrea Lee to Win by Decision -165
  • Murphy is a tough out which should result in this fight going the distance.
  • Lee has gone the distance in 4 straight and 5 of 6.
  • Murph was 3 in a row and 5 of 6 prior to her late finish against Borella.
  • I like Lee to do more and this prop bet probably shows up somewhere in my Silver plays.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Alex Morono -300 vs Kalinn Williams +274

  • I like Morono here, but I can’t make a play here at this price with so much unknown about Williams.
  • No Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Miles Johns -125 vs Mario Bautista +113

  • Johns won his debut, but didn’t look great. Bautista is coming off of a win over a fighter that had a good debut, raised his stock, and then looked mediocre against Bautista.
  • Based on this scenario, Johns’s stock is down, Bautista’s inflated a bit- we need to cash in.
  • Johns’s wrestling should be the key here, but he can also do damage against a defensively vulnerable opponent.
  • Johns opened around -245 so we are getting a lot of value based on that movement.
  • Gold Play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play

DK Lineup:

  • No Play.

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Journey Newson +115 vs Domingo Pilarte -123

  • Neither fighter looked great in their debut.
  • I like Pilarte’s length advantage and that he is fighting at home.
  • Newson has some pop, but I don’t think he will be able to find his way into range enough to make it count.
  • Bronze play.

Prop Bet:

  • No Play.

DK Lineup:

  • Fights like this one often end in a finish and I could see Pilarte getting a stoppage win. He isn’t my favourite Fantasy pick, but I am limited on this card.
  • Add him.

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Andre Ewell -117 vs Jonathan Martinez +105

  • On the feet, Ewell has looked good. Martinez will most likely need to take him down with regularity.
  • When a fighter has to drastically deviate from their normal approach in order to win a fight- I am not a fan.
  • Ewell’s reach and superior variety will be the keys here.
  • His drop from -190 to his current line is also encouraging.
  • Gold play for Mr. Highlight.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • Ewell is a high percentage finisher with an affordable price tag.
  • He is also fighting a card spot that is prone to finishes.
  • Add him.

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Austin Lingo -186 vs Youssef Zalal +175

  • This is a bout where we don’t know a lot about either man- at least when it comes to fighting at this level.
  • Lingo is the local fighter and was a massive favourite until the line started to move.
  • This is an easy No Play or at the most Bronze inclusion.

Prop Bet:

  • See the Betting Scenario Section.

DK Lineup:

  • I order to make my lineup fit the budget, I had to use a counter bet and Zalal is my choice.
  • He has finished all of his wins and considering the opening fight of the night often ends early I will roll with him.
  • Add Zalal.

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Confidence List

1. Valentina Shevchenko -867

2. Derrick Lewis -224

3. Jon Jones -410

4. Andrea Lee -345

5. Miles Johns -125

====================

6. Alex Morono -300

7. Dan Ige +120

8. Andre Ewell -117

9. Juan Adams -240

10. James Krause -161

11. Domingo Pilarte -123

12. Austin Lingo -186

13.

 

Value Bet List

1. Dan Ige +120

2. Miles Johns -125

3. Andre Ewell -117

4. James Krause -161

5. Domingo Pilarte -123

 

Counter Bets

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Betting Scenario

Scenario Breakdowns

The section will always be a work in progress, as I hopefully continue to find different scenarios that produce consistent winners. Click the names below to read each scenario’s explanation.

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EPU Candidate(s)

1. Andre Ewell -117 vs Jonathan Martinez +105

I will stick with the SU win any way we can get it. Pass.

2. Austin Lingo to Win Inside the Distance +150

Lingo has finished his last 3 opponents in very quick fashion. That can dry up at the UFC level, but he appears to be facing an opponent of similar caliber to his regional competition. Lingo will be motivated to get it done at home. Add him.

EPU
Under 1.5
Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Over x2
2014
42
46
46
11 of 46 Events
2015
28
35
42
10 of 39 Events
2016
28
38
41
11 of 41 Events
2017
27
40
35
8 of 38 Events
2018
26
35
30
8 of 33 Events
2019
18
27
49
15 of 39 Events
2020
2
3
5
1 of 4 Events
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
47242351%
2016 Picks
55312456%
2017 Picks
47202743%
2018 Picks
42251760%
2019 Picks
32131941%
2020 Picks
5050%

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FPO Candidate

1. Trevin Giles to Win by Decision +250

Giles can finish, but he has struggled to do so as of late. This is a good spot for him, similar to Bevon Lewis last weekend. The UFC wants to see Giles (at home) do well and this is a solid matchup in a good spot on the card. Giles will narrowly outwork Arroyo and even if its close he still gets the nod at home. FPO improves to 3-0 on the year.

Final Prelim
FP
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Over %
2014
46
30
16
65%
2015
36162044%
2016
39261367%
2017
3425974%
2018
33221167%
2019
38231561%
2020
43175%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
29121741%
2016 Picks
35171849%
2017 Picks
29121741%
2018 Picks
31131842%
2019 Picks
3092130%
2020 Picks
32167%

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HEF Candidate(s)

1. Mirsad Bektic -130 vs Dan Ige +120

2. James Krause -161 vs Trevin Giles +124

3. Miles Johns -125 vs Mario Bautista +113

4. Journey Newson +115 vs Domingo Pilarte -123

5. Andre Ewell -117 vs Jonathan Martinez +105

HEFs
FP
W
L
WIN %
2015
177938453%
2016
21210610650%
2017
1791106961%
2018
1921009252%
2019
21710011746%
2020
23121152%
FP
W
L
Win %
2015 Picks
181978454%
2016 Picks
21210810451%
2017 Picks
179879249%
2018 Picks
192959749%
2019 Picks
21111010152%
2020 Picks
23111248%

 

 

 

 

Scott Johnson

scott

Starting in 2010, Scott began posting UFC and NFL predictions videos on youtube under the name Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions. Eventually, MMA became his main focus and as the channel's popularity grew Kamikaze Overdrive eventually expanded to include a website. Scott has worked for various MMA and Sports betting information sites and now posts UFC Predictions, Betting Breakdowns, and Content along with other sports-related betting information.

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